Squiggle 2024

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Sun May 19 06:03:35 2024 (R10)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2024 ROUND 10 TIPS

Brisbane Lions 96 - 56 Richmond
Gabba (QLD)
HGA: +6.5 pts
Ins/Outs: +3.1 pts

Collingwood 92 - 71 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +11.2 pts
Ins/Outs: +1.1 pts

Essendon 106 - 66 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: +1.5 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.4 pts

Gold Coast 70 - 75 Geelong Geelong
Marrara Oval (NT)
HGA: +1.7 pts
Ins/Outs: +4.9 pts

Greater Western Sydney 81 - 86 Western Bulldogs
Sydney Showground (NSW)
HGA: +6.7 pts
Ins/Outs: +8.1 pts

Port Adelaide 92 - 65 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA: +10.8 pts
Ins/Outs: +2.8 pts

St Kilda 65 - 62 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: +8.3 pts
Ins/Outs: +2.1 pts

Sydney Sydney 94 - 70 Carlton Carlton
S.C.G. (NSW)
HGA: Sydney +6.7 pts
Ins/Outs: Sydney +5.8 pts

West Coast 64 - 86 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: +13.3 pts
Ins/Outs: +3.9 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE7
Tips after Round 9: 51

History...

In 2024, algorithm SQUIGGLE7 correctly tipped 55 games at an accuracy of 63.22%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1

Collingwood (76) defeated Richmond (46) at Princes Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 30)
Carlton (63) lost to Melbourne (101) at Princes Park (VIC) [Melbourne by 38)
Greater Western Sydney (105) defeated Gold Coast (61) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 44)
Sydney (56) lost to Brisbane Lions (81) at Blacktown (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 25)
Geelong (83) defeated Essendon (71) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 12)
Port Adelaide (92) defeated Fremantle (53) at Alberton Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 39)
Adelaide (117) defeated West Coast (50) at John Cain Arena (VIC) [Adelaide by 67)
Hawthorn (62) lost to Western Bulldogs (119) at York Park (TAS) [Western Bulldogs by 57)
St Kilda (84) defeated North Melbourne (65) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 19)

Round 0

Brisbane Lions (85) lost to Carlton (86) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 1) Brisbane Lions by 13
Gold Coast (99) defeated Richmond (60) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 39) Gold Coast by 6
Greater Western Sydney (114) defeated Collingwood (82) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 9
Sydney (86) defeated Melbourne (64) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 22) Melbourne by 2

Round 1

Carlton (86) defeated Richmond (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 5) Carlton by 0
Collingwood (69) lost to Sydney (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 33) Collingwood by 8
Essendon (107) defeated Hawthorn (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 24) Essendon by 0
Fremantle (93) defeated Brisbane Lions (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 23) Brisbane Lions by 7
Geelong (76) defeated St Kilda (68) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 8) Geelong by 20
Gold Coast (60) defeated Adelaide (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 6) Adelaide by 0
Greater Western Sydney (121) defeated North Melbourne (82) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 39) Greater Western Sydney by 51
Melbourne (109) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 45) Melbourne by 15
Port Adelaide (120) defeated West Coast (70) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 50) Port Adelaide by 52

Round 2

Adelaide (77) lost to Geelong (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 19) Adelaide by 18
Hawthorn (38) lost to Melbourne (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 55) Melbourne by 21
North Melbourne (76) lost to Fremantle (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 26) Fremantle by 10
Richmond (92) lost to Port Adelaide (122) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 30) Port Adelaide by 16
St Kilda (94) defeated Collingwood (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 15) Collingwood by 0
Sydney (131) defeated Essendon (101) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 30) Sydney by 26
West Coast (43) lost to Greater Western Sydney (108) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Greater Western Sydney by 65) Greater Western Sydney by 42
Western Bulldogs (115) defeated Gold Coast (67) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 48) Western Bulldogs by 8

Round 3

Brisbane Lions (72) lost to Collingwood (92) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 20) Brisbane Lions by 18
Essendon (71) defeated St Kilda (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 4) St Kilda by 5
Fremantle (69) defeated Adelaide (34) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 35) Fremantle by 15
Hawthorn (70) lost to Geelong (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 36) Geelong by 14
North Melbourne (81) lost to Carlton (137) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 56) Carlton by 23
Port Adelaide (89) lost to Melbourne (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 7) Port Adelaide by 0
Richmond (82) defeated Sydney (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 5) Sydney by 20
Western Bulldogs (106) defeated West Coast (30) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 76) Western Bulldogs by 48

Round 4

Adelaide (63) lost to Melbourne (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 15) Melbourne by 15
Brisbane Lions (112) defeated North Melbourne (42) at Norwood Oval (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 70) Brisbane Lions by 21
Collingwood (77) defeated Hawthorn (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 5) Collingwood by 20
Fremantle (63) lost to Carlton (73) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Carlton by 10) Fremantle by 4
Gold Coast (89) lost to Greater Western Sydney (117) at Adelaide Hills (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 28) Greater Western Sydney by 7
Port Adelaide (111) defeated Essendon (42) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 69) Port Adelaide by 25
Richmond (60) lost to St Kilda (67) at Norwood Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 7) St Kilda by 10
West Coast (78) lost to Sydney (104) at Adelaide Hills (SA) [Sydney by 26) Sydney by 49
Western Bulldogs (91) lost to Geelong (95) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 4) Western Bulldogs by 0

Round 5

Carlton (98) lost to Adelaide (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 2) Carlton by 18
Geelong (139) defeated North Melbourne (64) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 75) Geelong by 48
Gold Coast (109) defeated Hawthorn (56) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 53) Gold Coast by 12
Greater Western Sydney (80) defeated St Kilda (79) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 1) Greater Western Sydney by 12
Melbourne (60) lost to Brisbane Lions (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 22) Melbourne by 12
Port Adelaide (66) defeated Fremantle (63) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 3) Port Adelaide by 16
West Coast (109) defeated Richmond (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 39) Richmond by 11
Western Bulldogs (67) lost to Essendon (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 29) Western Bulldogs by 15

Round 6

Adelaide (75) lost to Essendon (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 3) Adelaide by 16
Brisbane Lions (37) lost to Geelong (63) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 26) Brisbane Lions by 4
Carlton (117) defeated Greater Western Sydney (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 19) Carlton by 5
Collingwood (123) defeated Port Adelaide (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 42) Collingwood by 1
North Melbourne (68) lost to Hawthorn (113) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 45) Hawthorn by 13
St Kilda (64) lost to Western Bulldogs (124) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 60) St Kilda by 1
Sydney (110) defeated Gold Coast (57) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 53) Sydney by 10
West Coast (105) defeated Fremantle (68) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 37) Fremantle by 28

Round 7

Essendon (85) drew with Collingwood (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Collingwood by 10
Fremantle (95) defeated Western Bulldogs (71) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 24) Fremantle by 2
Geelong (118) defeated Carlton (105) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 13) Geelong by 11
Gold Coast (112) defeated West Coast (75) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 37) Gold Coast by 31
Greater Western Sydney (113) defeated Brisbane Lions (59) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 54) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Hawthorn (42) lost to Sydney (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 76) Sydney by 12
North Melbourne (81) lost to Adelaide (138) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Adelaide by 57) Adelaide by 24
Port Adelaide (82) defeated St Kilda (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 10) Port Adelaide by 18
Richmond (42) lost to Melbourne (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 43) Melbourne by 27

Round 8

Adelaide (78) defeated Port Adelaide (48) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 30) Port Adelaide by 10
Brisbane Lions (79) defeated Gold Coast (45) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 34) Brisbane Lions by 10
Carlton (79) lost to Collingwood (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 6) Carlton by 15
Melbourne (74) defeated Geelong (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 8) Melbourne by 5
Richmond (49) lost to Fremantle (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 54) Fremantle by 5
St Kilda (103) defeated North Melbourne (65) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 38) St Kilda by 33
Sydney (98) defeated Greater Western Sydney (69) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 29) Greater Western Sydney by 4
West Coast (71) lost to Essendon (77) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Essendon by 6) Essendon by 9
Western Bulldogs (91) lost to Hawthorn (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 7) Western Bulldogs by 19

Round 9

Adelaide (90) drew with Brisbane Lions (90) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [DRAW by 0) Adelaide by 0
Carlton (77) defeated Melbourne (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 1) Melbourne by 10
Collingwood (103) defeated West Coast (37) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 66) Collingwood by 30
Essendon (82) defeated Greater Western Sydney (62) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 20) Greater Western Sydney by 8
Fremantle (39) lost to Sydney (87) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 48) Fremantle by 3
Geelong (95) lost to Port Adelaide (101) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Port Adelaide by 6) Geelong by 16
Gold Coast (120) defeated North Melbourne (52) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 68) Gold Coast by 31
Hawthorn (58) defeated St Kilda (53) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 5) St Kilda by 11
Richmond (42) lost to Western Bulldogs (133) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 91) Western Bulldogs by 11

Round 10

Brisbane Lions (163) defeated Richmond (44) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 119) Brisbane Lions by 39
Collingwood (78) defeated Adelaide (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 4) Collingwood by 21
Gold Coast (164) defeated Geelong (100) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 64) Geelong by 5
Greater Western Sydney (43) lost to Western Bulldogs (70) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 27) Western Bulldogs by 5
St Kilda (55) lost to Fremantle (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 17) St Kilda by 3
Sydney (117) defeated Carlton (65) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 52) Sydney by 23

Round 11

Round 12

Round 13

Round 14

Round 15

Round 16

Round 17

Round 18

Round 19

Round 20

Round 21

Round 22

Round 23

Round 24

Elimination Final

Semi-Final

Preliminary Final

Grand Final

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		Wins	%
1	Sydney	17.2	137.4%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
2	Geelong	15.0	117.5%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
3	Melbourne	14.6	123.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
4	Port Adelaide	13.8	111.3%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
5	Essendon	13.6	100.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
6	Collingwood	13.4	107.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
7	Carlton	13.4	107.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
8	Western Bulldogs	12.9	124.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
9	Fremantle	13.0	109.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
10	Gold Coast	12.9	109.3%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
11	Brisbane Lions	12.1	117.0%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
12	Greater Western Sydney	12.3	105.6%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
13	Adelaide	10.0	101.3%	5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
14	Hawthorn	9.2	85.9%	6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
15	St Kilda	8.9	93.7%	7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
16	West Coast	6.8	74.9%	11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
17	Richmond	5.1	67.6%	13 14 15 16 17 18
18	North Melbourne	2.8	59.3%	16 17 18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 10

Essendon 106 - 66 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.860094 - 0.139906RealScores: 105.868501 - 66.372872

Port Adelaide 92 - 65 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.772884 - 0.227116RealScores: 91.819260 - 64.588419

West Coast 64 - 86 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.270650 - 0.729350RealScores: 63.979367 - 86.225382

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	9 (9.00)	1	0	154.7
2	Essendon	7 (6.83)	2	1	103.2
3	Melbourne	7 (6.70)	3	0	122.4
4	Port Adelaide	7 (6.74)	3	0	114.6
5	Geelong	7 (7.00)	3	0	112.1
6	Collingwood	6 (6.00)	3	1	107.8
7	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.00)	4	0	115.5
8	Gold Coast	6 (6.00)	4	0	112.7
9	Fremantle	6 (6.00)	4	0	111.8
10	Carlton	6 (6.00)	4	0	102.1
11	Western Bulldogs	5 (5.00)	5	0	126.1
12	Brisbane Lions	4 (4.00)	5	1	116.6
13	Adelaide	3 (3.00)	6	1	100.9
14	St Kilda	3 (3.00)	7	0	94.1
15	Hawthorn	3 (3.26)	7	0	76.0
16	West Coast	2 (2.30)	8	0	71.5
17	Richmond	1 (1.00)	9	0	59.6
18	North Melbourne	0 (0.17)	10	0	56.9

Round 11

Adelaide 96 - 63 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.818416 - 0.181584RealScores: 95.874923 - 62.683607

Carlton Carlton 87 - 77 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.609626 - 0.390374RealScores: 87.499822 - 76.901274

Fremantle 76 - 66 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.603452 - 0.396548RealScores: 75.583127 - 65.552803

Geelong Geelong 94 - 77 Greater Western Sydney
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.676307 - 0.323693RealScores: 94.320120 - 77.478794

Hawthorn 66 - 81 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.334318 - 0.665682RealScores: 65.590523 - 81.410277

Melbourne 77 - 56 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.711441 - 0.288559RealScores: 76.682740 - 56.329154

North Melbourne 70 - 118 Port Adelaide
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.09 wins - 0.91 winsRealProbs: 0.089269 - 0.910731RealScores: 69.703592 - 118.192557

Richmond 69 - 90 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.278504 - 0.721496RealScores: 68.639890 - 90.046109

Western Bulldogs 82 - 78 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.546951 - 0.453049RealScores: 81.991472 - 77.642597

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	9 (9.45)	2	0	148.1
2	Essendon	8 (7.52)	2	1	105.4
3	Port Adelaide	8 (7.62)	3	0	119.0
4	Geelong	8 (7.66)	3	0	112.9
5	Melbourne	7 (7.39)	4	0	123.5
6	Fremantle	7 (6.60)	4	0	112.1
7	Carlton	7 (6.61)	4	0	103.0
8	Collingwood	6 (6.40)	4	1	106.0
9	Western Bulldogs	6 (5.55)	5	0	124.2
10	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.34)	5	0	112.0
11	Gold Coast	6 (6.39)	5	0	110.3
12	Brisbane Lions	5 (4.65)	5	1	117.2
13	Adelaide	4 (3.79)	6	1	104.8
14	Hawthorn	4 (3.61)	7	0	76.4
15	St Kilda	3 (3.31)	8	0	92.3
16	West Coast	3 (2.51)	8	0	70.9
17	Richmond	1 (1.30)	10	0	60.9
18	North Melbourne	0 (0.30)	11	0	57.1

Round 12

Collingwood 71 - 82 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.388554 - 0.611446RealScores: 71.442313 - 82.208374

Geelong Geelong 109 - 65 Richmond
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.89 wins - 0.11 winsRealProbs: 0.885528 - 0.114472RealScores: 108.567505 - 64.753930

Gold Coast 83 - 71 Essendon
Carrara (QLD)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.627407 - 0.372593RealScores: 82.920140 - 70.683548

Hawthorn 75 - 76 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.484805 - 0.515195RealScores: 75.021167 - 76.043834

Melbourne 72 - 61 Fremantle
Traeger Park (NT)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.611673 - 0.388327RealScores: 71.639454 - 60.852495

Port Adelaide 94 - 80 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.643516 - 0.356484RealScores: 93.709880 - 79.979342

West Coast 68 - 75 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.430226 - 0.569774RealScores: 68.295167 - 74.859013

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	9 (9.45)	2	0	148.1
2	Geelong	9 (8.51)	3	0	116.5
3	Essendon	8 (7.90)	3	1	103.7
4	Melbourne	8 (8.00)	4	0	123.0
5	Port Adelaide	8 (8.25)	4	0	118.9
6	Collingwood	7 (6.79)	4	1	104.4
7	Gold Coast	7 (7.02)	5	0	110.8
8	Fremantle	7 (6.99)	5	0	109.7
9	Carlton	7 (6.97)	5	0	101.5
10	Western Bulldogs	6 (6.15)	6	0	123.4
11	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.34)	5	0	112.0
12	Brisbane Lions	5 (4.65)	5	1	117.2
13	Adelaide	4 (4.30)	7	1	104.5
14	St Kilda	4 (3.88)	8	0	93.6
15	Hawthorn	4 (4.09)	8	0	78.0
16	West Coast	3 (2.94)	9	0	72.3
17	Richmond	1 (1.45)	11	0	60.8
18	North Melbourne	0 (0.30)	11	0	57.1

Round 13

Adelaide 98 - 64 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.819455 - 0.180545RealScores: 97.717795 - 64.379992

Collingwood 67 - 74 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.423763 - 0.576237RealScores: 67.337614 - 74.438354

Essendon 78 - 84 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.434561 - 0.565439RealScores: 78.145913 - 84.120812

Hawthorn 72 - 84 Greater Western Sydney
York Park (TAS)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.382263 - 0.617737RealScores: 72.395327 - 83.740412

St Kilda 71 - 72 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.478381 - 0.521619RealScores: 70.700795 - 72.238842

Sydney Sydney 94 - 76 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.694054 - 0.305946RealScores: 94.423726 - 75.837314

West Coast 96 - 73 North Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.733649 - 0.266351RealScores: 95.867350 - 73.154749

Western Bulldogs 80 - 70 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.605987 - 0.394013RealScores: 80.425795 - 70.162164

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	10 (10.13)	2	0	145.9
2	Melbourne	9 (8.58)	4	0	122.0
3	Geelong	9 (8.84)	4	0	113.3
4	Essendon	8 (8.34)	4	1	102.8
5	Port Adelaide	8 (8.25)	4	0	118.9
6	Gold Coast	8 (7.54)	5	0	110.2
7	Carlton	8 (7.53)	5	0	101.9
8	Collingwood	7 (7.22)	5	1	103.4
9	Western Bulldogs	7 (6.76)	6	0	122.8
10	Greater Western Sydney	7 (6.95)	5	0	112.2
11	Fremantle	7 (6.99)	5	0	109.7
12	Brisbane Lions	5 (5.05)	6	1	114.5
13	Adelaide	5 (5.09)	7	1	107.6
14	St Kilda	4 (4.36)	9	0	93.9
15	Hawthorn	4 (4.48)	9	0	78.6
16	West Coast	4 (3.65)	9	0	75.9
17	Richmond	2 (1.66)	11	0	61.2
18	North Melbourne	1 (0.59)	11	0	58.4

Round 14

Adelaide 76 - 87 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.386344 - 0.613656RealScores: 75.640507 - 86.607143

Brisbane Lions 82 - 57 St Kilda
Gabba (QLD)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.750231 - 0.249769RealScores: 82.008084 - 57.446113

Greater Western Sydney 87 - 84 Port Adelaide
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.538072 - 0.461928RealScores: 86.869865 - 83.806865

North Melbourne 64 - 111 Collingwood
Docklands (VIC)0.10 wins - 0.90 winsRealProbs: 0.096428 - 0.903572RealScores: 63.948929 - 111.067603

Richmond 70 - 84 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.349496 - 0.650504RealScores: 69.656286 - 84.040381

Western Bulldogs 81 - 62 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.696199 - 0.303801RealScores: 81.204328 - 62.403198

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	11 (10.74)	2	0	143.3
2	Melbourne	9 (8.58)	4	0	122.0
3	Port Adelaide	9 (8.72)	4	0	117.0
4	Geelong	9 (8.84)	4	0	113.3
5	Collingwood	8 (8.09)	5	1	107.4
6	Essendon	8 (8.34)	4	1	102.8
7	Gold Coast	8 (7.54)	5	0	110.2
8	Carlton	8 (7.53)	5	0	101.9
9	Western Bulldogs	7 (7.44)	7	0	123.2
10	Greater Western Sydney	7 (7.49)	6	0	111.6
11	Fremantle	7 (7.31)	6	0	106.8
12	Brisbane Lions	6 (5.77)	6	1	116.2
13	Adelaide	5 (5.48)	8	1	106.0
14	St Kilda	5 (4.63)	9	0	92.0
15	Hawthorn	5 (5.12)	9	0	81.0
16	West Coast	4 (3.65)	9	0	75.9
17	Richmond	2 (2.02)	12	0	62.4
18	North Melbourne	1 (0.71)	12	0	58.3

Round 15

Carlton Carlton 87 - 88 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.485358 - 0.514642RealScores: 87.091419 - 87.730077

Essendon 93 - 62 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.807886 - 0.192114RealScores: 93.469103 - 61.735099

Fremantle 79 - 65 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.644777 - 0.355223RealScores: 78.522209 - 64.673972

Greater Western Sydney 75 - 91 Sydney Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.332673 - 0.667327RealScores: 75.432930 - 91.409860

Melbourne 112 - 55 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.96 wins - 0.04 winsRealProbs: 0.955120 - 0.044880RealScores: 112.497821 - 54.704048

Port Adelaide 81 - 79 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.529951 - 0.470049RealScores: 80.751268 - 78.605991

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	11 (11.40)	3	0	141.6
2	Melbourne	10 (9.50)	4	0	127.1
3	Essendon	9 (9.12)	4	1	105.5
4	Port Adelaide	9 (9.25)	5	0	116.0
5	Geelong	9 (9.35)	5	0	112.4
6	Collingwood	8 (8.09)	5	1	107.4
7	Greater Western Sydney	8 (7.83)	6	0	109.2
8	Gold Coast	8 (7.90)	6	0	108.3
9	Fremantle	8 (7.95)	6	0	107.8
10	Carlton	8 (8.02)	6	0	101.7
11	Western Bulldogs	7 (7.44)	7	0	123.2
12	Brisbane Lions	6 (6.25)	7	1	114.7
13	Adelaide	5 (5.48)	8	1	106.0
14	St Kilda	5 (4.63)	9	0	92.0
15	Hawthorn	5 (5.12)	9	0	81.0
16	West Coast	4 (3.87)	10	0	75.1
17	Richmond	2 (2.02)	12	0	62.4
18	North Melbourne	1 (0.78)	13	0	57.7

Round 16

Adelaide 85 - 78 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.576358 - 0.423642RealScores: 84.674155 - 77.926875

Brisbane Lions 73 - 66 Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.570528 - 0.429472RealScores: 72.587350 - 66.443673

Geelong Geelong 87 - 77 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.608864 - 0.391136RealScores: 86.848747 - 76.661997

Gold Coast 79 - 75 Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.547320 - 0.452680RealScores: 78.573048 - 74.794512

North Melbourne 61 - 121 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.03 wins - 0.97 winsRealProbs: 0.032431 - 0.967569RealScores: 60.546099 - 121.216293

Richmond 70 - 101 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.20 wins - 0.80 winsRealProbs: 0.201201 - 0.798799RealScores: 70.316183 - 100.832535

St Kilda 73 - 79 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.430726 - 0.569274RealScores: 72.597501 - 78.611945

Sydney Sydney 84 - 63 Fremantle
S.C.G. (NSW)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.718137 - 0.281863RealScores: 84.427904 - 63.376052

West Coast 72 - 78 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.436312 - 0.563688RealScores: 72.377390 - 77.817847

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	12 (12.10)	3	0	141.1
2	Essendon	10 (9.51)	4	1	104.3
3	Melbourne	10 (9.94)	5	0	124.4
4	Port Adelaide	10 (9.81)	5	0	115.5
5	Geelong	10 (9.95)	5	0	112.5
6	Collingwood	9 (8.55)	5	1	106.6
7	Carlton	9 (8.79)	6	0	103.9
8	Western Bulldogs	8 (8.38)	7	0	127.5
9	Gold Coast	8 (8.44)	7	0	108.1
10	Greater Western Sydney	8 (8.26)	7	0	108.1
11	Fremantle	8 (8.25)	7	0	105.1
12	Brisbane Lions	7 (6.81)	7	1	114.4
13	Adelaide	6 (6.05)	8	1	106.2
14	Hawthorn	6 (5.68)	9	0	82.5
15	St Kilda	5 (5.07)	10	0	92.1
16	West Coast	4 (4.31)	11	0	76.2
17	Richmond	2 (2.25)	13	0	62.9
18	North Melbourne	1 (0.84)	14	0	57.1

Round 17

Brisbane Lions 86 - 66 Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.713227 - 0.286773RealScores: 86.455573 - 65.916770

Collingwood 81 - 71 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.608156 - 0.391844RealScores: 80.726184 - 70.732570

Fremantle 93 - 56 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.842756 - 0.157244RealScores: 92.938036 - 56.174640

Geelong Geelong 94 - 67 Hawthorn
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.774673 - 0.225327RealScores: 93.960744 - 66.511527

Greater Western Sydney 88 - 83 Carlton Carlton
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.561126 - 0.438874RealScores: 87.868660 - 82.792317

Melbourne 99 - 51 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.91 wins - 0.09 winsRealProbs: 0.908032 - 0.091968RealScores: 98.524661 - 50.556279

North Melbourne 69 - 108 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.14 wins - 0.86 winsRealProbs: 0.141747 - 0.858253RealScores: 68.904432 - 108.102076

Port Adelaide 83 - 82 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.522793 - 0.477207RealScores: 82.934963 - 81.685968

St Kilda 65 - 84 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.307716 - 0.692284RealScores: 65.174575 - 83.584454

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	13 (12.77)	3	0	140.3
2	Melbourne	11 (10.82)	5	0	127.9
3	Geelong	11 (10.70)	5	0	113.9
4	Essendon	10 (9.91)	5	1	103.2
5	Port Adelaide	10 (10.33)	6	0	114.6
6	Collingwood	9 (9.15)	6	1	107.0
7	Western Bulldogs	9 (8.86)	7	0	125.5
8	Gold Coast	9 (9.27)	7	0	110.7
9	Fremantle	9 (9.07)	7	0	108.2
10	Greater Western Sydney	9 (8.82)	7	0	107.9
11	Carlton	9 (9.24)	7	0	103.3
12	Brisbane Lions	8 (7.51)	7	1	115.3
13	Adelaide	6 (6.35)	9	1	104.1
14	Hawthorn	6 (5.93)	10	0	81.7
15	St Kilda	5 (5.39)	11	0	91.1
16	West Coast	4 (4.43)	12	0	74.5
17	Richmond	2 (2.43)	14	0	62.8
18	North Melbourne	1 (1.01)	15	0	57.5

Round 18

Adelaide 80 - 63 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.675586 - 0.324414RealScores: 80.155738 - 63.384270

Collingwood 83 - 81 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.531581 - 0.468419RealScores: 82.525774 - 80.500840

Gold Coast 84 - 80 Port Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.553469 - 0.446531RealScores: 84.299265 - 80.093725

Hawthorn 64 - 74 Fremantle
York Park (TAS)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.386479 - 0.613521RealScores: 64.015405 - 74.475559

Melbourne 80 - 63 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.678103 - 0.321897RealScores: 79.768784 - 62.753157

Richmond 73 - 95 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.279979 - 0.720021RealScores: 73.374148 - 94.624470

Sydney Sydney 127 - 61 North Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.99 wins - 0.01 winsRealProbs: 0.990000 - 0.010000RealScores: 127.197139 - 61.025262

West Coast 64 - 92 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.215663 - 0.784337RealScores: 63.761471 - 92.411642

Western Bulldogs 90 - 75 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.660030 - 0.339970RealScores: 90.086625 - 74.804400

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	14 (13.73)	3	0	143.9
2	Melbourne	11 (11.48)	6	0	127.8
3	Port Adelaide	11 (10.78)	6	0	113.4
4	Geelong	11 (11.18)	6	0	112.9
5	Collingwood	10 (9.68)	6	1	106.8
6	Essendon	10 (10.25)	6	1	101.8
7	Western Bulldogs	10 (9.51)	7	0	125.2
8	Gold Coast	10 (9.82)	7	0	110.4
9	Greater Western Sydney	10 (9.52)	7	0	109.0
10	Fremantle	10 (9.67)	7	0	108.6
11	Carlton	10 (9.59)	7	0	102.1
12	Brisbane Lions	8 (8.27)	8	1	116.9
13	Adelaide	7 (7.02)	9	1	105.2
14	St Kilda	6 (5.73)	11	0	90.4
15	Hawthorn	6 (6.32)	11	0	81.9
16	West Coast	5 (4.68)	12	0	74.2
17	Richmond	3 (2.73)	14	0	63.6
18	North Melbourne	1 (1.05)	16	0	56.9

Round 19

Brisbane Lions 78 - 77 Sydney Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.523738 - 0.476262RealScores: 77.965411 - 76.791798

Carlton Carlton 119 - 68 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.927661 - 0.072339RealScores: 119.370877 - 67.501529

Essendon 81 - 73 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.595214 - 0.404786RealScores: 81.429600 - 73.021556

Fremantle 67 - 65 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.529938 - 0.470062RealScores: 67.136016 - 65.355933

Geelong Geelong 83 - 82 Western Bulldogs
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.516000 - 0.484000RealScores: 82.977317 - 82.555448

Greater Western Sydney 84 - 78 Gold Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.571975 - 0.428025RealScores: 83.765761 - 77.770807

Hawthorn 66 - 82 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.328882 - 0.671118RealScores: 66.081640 - 82.422159

Port Adelaide 108 - 64 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.89 wins - 0.11 winsRealProbs: 0.886298 - 0.113702RealScores: 107.878989 - 63.928513

St Kilda 84 - 59 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.755290 - 0.244710RealScores: 84.148623 - 59.005557

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	14 (14.22)	4	0	141.0
2	Melbourne	12 (11.96)	6	0	126.1
3	Port Adelaide	12 (11.64)	6	0	115.9
4	Geelong	12 (11.68)	6	0	112.3
5	Essendon	11 (10.83)	6	1	102.3
6	Collingwood	10 (10.33)	7	1	107.6
7	Western Bulldogs	10 (10.00)	8	0	123.6
8	Gold Coast	10 (10.25)	8	0	109.4
9	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.08)	8	0	109.0
10	Fremantle	10 (10.19)	8	0	108.3
11	Carlton	10 (10.49)	8	0	105.3
12	Brisbane Lions	9 (8.78)	8	1	116.0
13	Adelaide	7 (7.43)	10	1	104.2
14	Hawthorn	7 (6.67)	11	0	81.8
15	St Kilda	6 (6.46)	12	0	92.6
16	West Coast	5 (4.95)	13	0	74.0
17	Richmond	3 (2.87)	15	0	63.3
18	North Melbourne	1 (1.15)	17	0	56.9

Round 20

Adelaide 85 - 66 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.699249 - 0.300751RealScores: 85.086458 - 65.978543

Carlton Carlton 90 - 84 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.568492 - 0.431508RealScores: 89.619935 - 84.069287

Collingwood 97 - 63 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.821237 - 0.178763RealScores: 96.847829 - 63.257472

Fremantle 88 - 58 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.797086 - 0.202914RealScores: 88.108214 - 57.817412

Gold Coast 71 - 80 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.402031 - 0.597969RealScores: 71.203050 - 79.805894

Melbourne 85 - 65 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.712276 - 0.287724RealScores: 84.984346 - 64.544232

North Melbourne 68 - 122 Geelong Geelong
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.06 wins - 0.94 winsRealProbs: 0.063957 - 0.936043RealScores: 68.057393 - 121.675741

St Kilda 68 - 72 Essendon
Docklands (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.443353 - 0.556647RealScores: 68.147662 - 72.499235

Sydney Sydney 85 - 75 Western Bulldogs
S.C.G. (NSW)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.615414 - 0.384586RealScores: 85.046073 - 74.587996

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	15 (14.82)	4	0	139.5
2	Melbourne	13 (12.65)	6	0	126.4
3	Geelong	13 (12.59)	6	0	115.2
4	Port Adelaide	12 (12.08)	7	0	114.6
5	Collingwood	11 (11.13)	7	1	109.6
6	Essendon	11 (11.38)	7	1	102.5
7	Fremantle	11 (10.96)	8	0	110.3
8	Gold Coast	11 (10.67)	8	0	108.3
9	Carlton	11 (11.05)	8	0	105.4
10	Western Bulldogs	10 (10.40)	9	0	121.4
11	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.39)	9	0	107.2
12	Brisbane Lions	9 (9.37)	9	1	115.8
13	Adelaide	8 (8.11)	10	1	105.4
14	St Kilda	7 (6.91)	12	0	92.7
15	Hawthorn	7 (6.98)	12	0	81.6
16	West Coast	5 (5.18)	14	0	73.5
17	Richmond	3 (3.08)	16	0	63.4
18	North Melbourne	1 (1.24)	18	0	56.8

Round 21

Collingwood 83 - 79 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.553235 - 0.446765RealScores: 82.983528 - 79.054545

Essendon 72 - 69 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.545281 - 0.454719RealScores: 72.240600 - 69.103792

Geelong Geelong 94 - 72 Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.726354 - 0.273646RealScores: 94.333348 - 72.409552

Greater Western Sydney 88 - 68 Hawthorn
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.704294 - 0.295706RealScores: 87.877619 - 68.258120

North Melbourne 80 - 94 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.352561 - 0.647439RealScores: 79.819139 - 93.682591

Port Adelaide 83 - 87 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.444577 - 0.555423RealScores: 82.608619 - 86.756720

St Kilda 64 - 76 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.365678 - 0.634322RealScores: 63.520685 - 75.933512

West Coast 69 - 89 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.295562 - 0.704438RealScores: 69.491374 - 89.125591

Western Bulldogs 74 - 70 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.557923 - 0.442077RealScores: 73.944324 - 69.545329

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	15 (15.37)	5	0	137.5
2	Melbourne	13 (13.11)	7	0	124.5
3	Geelong	13 (13.30)	7	0	115.8
4	Port Adelaide	13 (12.54)	7	0	113.5
5	Collingwood	12 (11.67)	7	1	109.3
6	Essendon	12 (11.91)	7	1	102.6
7	Carlton	12 (11.51)	8	0	104.9
8	Western Bulldogs	11 (10.94)	9	0	120.7
9	Fremantle	11 (11.43)	9	0	109.5
10	Gold Coast	11 (11.35)	9	0	109.2
11	Greater Western Sydney	11 (11.07)	9	0	108.1
12	Brisbane Lions	10 (9.99)	9	1	116.0
13	Adelaide	8 (8.41)	11	1	103.6
14	St Kilda	7 (7.29)	13	0	92.2
15	Hawthorn	7 (7.30)	13	0	81.4
16	West Coast	5 (5.49)	15	0	73.8
17	Richmond	4 (3.72)	16	0	65.6
18	North Melbourne	2 (1.60)	18	0	58.0

Round 22

Adelaide 75 - 82 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.417660 - 0.582340RealScores: 75.365242 - 82.167850

Brisbane Lions 88 - 69 Greater Western Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.703803 - 0.296197RealScores: 88.204353 - 68.634898

Carlton Carlton 88 - 71 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.679625 - 0.320375RealScores: 88.071511 - 70.907889

Essendon 78 - 75 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.548065 - 0.451935RealScores: 78.471029 - 75.132658

Fremantle 80 - 72 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.596801 - 0.403199RealScores: 80.285268 - 71.981774

Melbourne 84 - 68 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.676339 - 0.323661RealScores: 84.375808 - 67.531334

North Melbourne 80 - 89 West Coast
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.388134 - 0.611866RealScores: 79.564291 - 89.457808

Richmond 64 - 83 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.304251 - 0.695749RealScores: 63.849446 - 82.605423

Sydney Sydney 90 - 68 Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.719730 - 0.280270RealScores: 89.658804 - 68.439214

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	16 (16.07)	5	0	137.2
2	Melbourne	14 (13.77)	7	0	124.6
3	Geelong	14 (13.71)	7	0	114.6
4	Port Adelaide	13 (12.88)	8	0	111.8
5	Collingwood	12 (11.97)	8	1	107.5
6	Essendon	12 (12.45)	8	1	102.6
7	Western Bulldogs	12 (11.51)	9	0	120.1
8	Fremantle	12 (12.01)	9	0	109.6
9	Gold Coast	12 (11.82)	9	0	108.6
10	Carlton	12 (12.17)	9	0	105.7
11	Brisbane Lions	11 (10.67)	9	1	116.5
12	Greater Western Sydney	11 (11.39)	10	0	106.5
13	Adelaide	9 (8.84)	11	1	103.0
14	St Kilda	8 (7.97)	13	0	93.7
15	Hawthorn	8 (7.63)	13	0	81.3
16	West Coast	6 (6.09)	15	0	75.4
17	Richmond	4 (4.04)	17	0	66.1
18	North Melbourne	2 (2.01)	19	0	59.1

Round 23

Collingwood 75 - 74 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.528973 - 0.471027RealScores: 75.058940 - 73.665306

Essendon 72 - 87 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.341500 - 0.658500RealScores: 72.142762 - 87.048668

Gold Coast 70 - 74 Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.439589 - 0.560411RealScores: 69.732966 - 74.230620

Greater Western Sydney 77 - 72 Fremantle
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.569936 - 0.430064RealScores: 77.054091 - 71.595973

Hawthorn 85 - 68 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.675258 - 0.324742RealScores: 85.218212 - 68.478456

Port Adelaide 87 - 78 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.607271 - 0.392729RealScores: 87.463599 - 78.142634

St Kilda 71 - 82 Geelong Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.378109 - 0.621891RealScores: 70.724836 - 81.603988

West Coast 72 - 95 Carlton Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.266445 - 0.733555RealScores: 72.392583 - 95.094890

Western Bulldogs 123 - 59 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.98 wins - 0.02 winsRealProbs: 0.983435 - 0.016565RealScores: 123.140326 - 58.622066

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	17 (16.71)	5	0	136.4
2	Melbourne	14 (14.32)	8	0	123.7
3	Geelong	14 (14.32)	8	0	114.6
4	Essendon	13 (12.81)	8	1	101.6
5	Port Adelaide	13 (13.47)	9	0	111.8
6	Carlton	13 (12.88)	9	0	106.7
7	Collingwood	12 (12.48)	9	1	107.3
8	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.47)	10	0	123.4
9	Fremantle	12 (12.46)	10	0	108.8
10	Gold Coast	12 (12.27)	10	0	107.9
11	Greater Western Sydney	12 (11.94)	10	0	106.5
12	Brisbane Lions	11 (11.16)	10	1	115.6
13	Adelaide	9 (9.25)	12	1	102.3
14	St Kilda	8 (8.36)	14	0	93.4
15	Hawthorn	8 (8.29)	14	0	82.9
16	West Coast	6 (6.38)	16	0	75.4
17	Richmond	4 (4.38)	18	0	66.6
18	North Melbourne	2 (2.05)	20	0	58.6

Round 24

Brisbane Lions 86 - 64 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.726812 - 0.273188RealScores: 85.716770 - 63.743935

Carlton Carlton 82 - 69 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.636297 - 0.363703RealScores: 81.669993 - 69.316066

Fremantle 81 - 70 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.618847 - 0.381153RealScores: 80.876043 - 70.407018

Geelong Geelong 111 - 58 West Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.934055 - 0.065945RealScores: 111.444473 - 58.245574

Hawthorn 99 - 67 North Melbourne
York Park (TAS)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.812703 - 0.187297RealScores: 99.422653 - 67.028244

Melbourne 75 - 66 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.606450 - 0.393550RealScores: 75.464802 - 66.311166

Richmond 71 - 92 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.282854 - 0.717146RealScores: 70.565176 - 91.513075

Sydney Sydney 95 - 67 Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.782295 - 0.217705RealScores: 95.320509 - 66.927141

Western Bulldogs 92 - 70 Greater Western Sydney
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.727910 - 0.272090RealScores: 92.087343 - 69.996576

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	17 (17.46)	6	0	136.6
2	Melbourne	15 (14.90)	8	0	123.2
3	Geelong	15 (15.23)	8	0	117.1
4	Port Adelaide	14 (13.87)	9	0	110.7
5	Carlton	14 (13.50)	9	0	107.1
6	Collingwood	13 (12.90)	9	1	106.5
7	Essendon	13 (13.10)	9	1	100.4
8	Western Bulldogs	13 (13.17)	10	0	123.7
9	Fremantle	13 (13.06)	10	0	109.0
10	Gold Coast	13 (12.97)	10	0	108.8
11	Brisbane Lions	12 (11.86)	10	1	116.4
12	Greater Western Sydney	12 (12.24)	11	0	105.0
13	Adelaide	9 (9.49)	13	1	100.6
14	St Kilda	9 (8.74)	14	0	93.0
15	Hawthorn	9 (9.08)	14	0	85.2
16	West Coast	6 (6.47)	17	0	74.2
17	Richmond	5 (4.69)	18	0	67.0
18	North Melbourne	2 (2.27)	21	0	58.9

FINALS: WEEK 1

Sydney Sydney 95 - 74 Port Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)

Geelong Geelong 72 - 81 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)

Essendon 69 - 86 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)

Collingwood 83 - 79 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Port Adelaide 82 - 83 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)

Geelong Geelong 82 - 81 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Sydney Sydney 95 - 75 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)

Melbourne 72 - 71 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)

2024 AFL GRAND FINAL

Melbourne 75 - 72 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE7

Greater Western Sydney def Adelaide	1.7%
Brisbane Lions def Adelaide	1.6%
Adelaide def Brisbane Lions	1.6%
Adelaide def Greater Western Sydney	1.6%
Melbourne def Adelaide	1.6%
Geelong def Adelaide	1.6%
Geelong def Brisbane Lions	1.5%
Greater Western Sydney def Brisbane Lions	1.5%
Geelong def Greater Western Sydney	1.4%
Brisbane Lions def Greater Western Sydney	1.4%
Adelaide def Geelong	1.4%
Melbourne def Greater Western Sydney	1.4%
Brisbane Lions def Geelong	1.3%
Adelaide def Melbourne	1.3%
Melbourne def Brisbane Lions	1.3%
Melbourne def Geelong	1.3%
Greater Western Sydney def Melbourne	1.3%
Greater Western Sydney def Geelong	1.2%
Geelong def Melbourne	1.2%
Adelaide def Fremantle	1.2%

		Flagpole Height
1	Sydney	62.3
2	Melbourne	59.8
3	Western Bulldogs	58.5
4	Geelong	57.0
5	Brisbane Lions	56.2
6	Port Adelaide	55.3
7	Collingwood	54.6
8	Fremantle	53.8
9	Carlton	53.8
10	Gold Coast	53.4
11	Essendon	52.1
12	Greater Western Sydney	51.9
13	Adelaide	45.2
14	Hawthorn	40.5
15	St Kilda	40.4
16	West Coast	28.6
17	Richmond	22.7
18	North Melbourne	10.9

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Sydney	61.2	63.5	62.4
2	Western Bulldogs	58.3	63.8	61.1
3	Melbourne	53.3	68.4	60.8
4	Brisbane Lions	55.6	64.8	60.2
5	Geelong	58.7	56.8	57.7
6	Port Adelaide	57.7	56.5	57.1
7	Collingwood	53.5	60.2	56.8
8	Fremantle	49.4	63.7	56.5
9	Gold Coast	53.7	58.7	56.2
10	Carlton	56.6	55.4	56.0
11	Greater Western Sydney	55.3	56.1	55.7
12	Adelaide	52.3	56.4	54.4
13	Essendon	50.9	57.1	54.0
14	St Kilda	45.4	59.1	52.3
15	Hawthorn	46.9	55.3	51.1
16	Richmond	44.5	46.8	45.7
17	West Coast	42.8	47.2	45.0
18	North Melbourne	43.4	40.0	41.7