Squiggle 2024

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Sat May 11 03:09:36 2024 (R9)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2024 ROUND 9 TIPS

Adelaide 72 - 73 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA: +10.3 pts
Ins/Outs: +3.9 pts

Carlton Carlton 73 - 83 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: Carlton +1.0 pts
Ins/Outs: +1.8 pts

Collingwood 92 - 62 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: +7.5 pts
Ins/Outs: +5.5 pts

Essendon 83 - 92 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: +8.4 pts
Ins/Outs: +1.3 pts

Fremantle 75 - 72 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: +12.7 pts
Ins/Outs: +3.4 pts

Geelong Geelong 89 - 74 Port Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)
HGA: Geelong +10.5 pts
Ins/Outs: +2.0 pts

Gold Coast 94 - 66 North Melbourne
Marrara Oval (NT)
HGA: +1.5 pts
Ins/Outs: +8.1 pts

Hawthorn 64 - 74 St Kilda
York Park (TAS)
HGA: +2.0 pts
Ins/Outs: +5.3 pts

Richmond 78 - 90 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +2.5 pts
Ins/Outs: +5.9 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE7
Tips after Round 8: 47

History...

In 2024, algorithm SQUIGGLE7 correctly tipped 47 games at an accuracy of 62.67%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1

Collingwood (76) defeated Richmond (46) at Princes Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 30)
Carlton (63) lost to Melbourne (101) at Princes Park (VIC) [Melbourne by 38)
Greater Western Sydney (105) defeated Gold Coast (61) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 44)
Sydney (56) lost to Brisbane Lions (81) at Blacktown (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 25)
Geelong (83) defeated Essendon (71) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 12)
Port Adelaide (92) defeated Fremantle (53) at Alberton Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 39)
Adelaide (117) defeated West Coast (50) at John Cain Arena (VIC) [Adelaide by 67)
Hawthorn (62) lost to Western Bulldogs (119) at York Park (TAS) [Western Bulldogs by 57)
St Kilda (84) defeated North Melbourne (65) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 19)

Round 0

Brisbane Lions (85) lost to Carlton (86) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 1) Brisbane Lions by 13
Gold Coast (99) defeated Richmond (60) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 39) Gold Coast by 6
Greater Western Sydney (114) defeated Collingwood (82) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 9
Sydney (86) defeated Melbourne (64) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 22) Melbourne by 2

Round 1

Carlton (86) defeated Richmond (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 5) Carlton by 0
Collingwood (69) lost to Sydney (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 33) Collingwood by 8
Essendon (107) defeated Hawthorn (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 24) Essendon by 0
Fremantle (93) defeated Brisbane Lions (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 23) Brisbane Lions by 7
Geelong (76) defeated St Kilda (68) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 8) Geelong by 20
Gold Coast (60) defeated Adelaide (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 6) Adelaide by 0
Greater Western Sydney (121) defeated North Melbourne (82) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 39) Greater Western Sydney by 51
Melbourne (109) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 45) Melbourne by 15
Port Adelaide (120) defeated West Coast (70) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 50) Port Adelaide by 52

Round 2

Adelaide (77) lost to Geelong (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 19) Adelaide by 18
Hawthorn (38) lost to Melbourne (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 55) Melbourne by 21
North Melbourne (76) lost to Fremantle (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 26) Fremantle by 10
Richmond (92) lost to Port Adelaide (122) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 30) Port Adelaide by 16
St Kilda (94) defeated Collingwood (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 15) Collingwood by 0
Sydney (131) defeated Essendon (101) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 30) Sydney by 26
West Coast (43) lost to Greater Western Sydney (108) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Greater Western Sydney by 65) Greater Western Sydney by 42
Western Bulldogs (115) defeated Gold Coast (67) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 48) Western Bulldogs by 8

Round 3

Brisbane Lions (72) lost to Collingwood (92) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 20) Brisbane Lions by 18
Essendon (71) defeated St Kilda (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 4) St Kilda by 5
Fremantle (69) defeated Adelaide (34) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 35) Fremantle by 15
Hawthorn (70) lost to Geelong (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 36) Geelong by 14
North Melbourne (81) lost to Carlton (137) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 56) Carlton by 23
Port Adelaide (89) lost to Melbourne (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 7) Port Adelaide by 0
Richmond (82) defeated Sydney (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 5) Sydney by 20
Western Bulldogs (106) defeated West Coast (30) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 76) Western Bulldogs by 48

Round 4

Adelaide (63) lost to Melbourne (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 15) Melbourne by 15
Brisbane Lions (112) defeated North Melbourne (42) at Norwood Oval (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 70) Brisbane Lions by 21
Collingwood (77) defeated Hawthorn (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 5) Collingwood by 20
Fremantle (63) lost to Carlton (73) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Carlton by 10) Fremantle by 4
Gold Coast (89) lost to Greater Western Sydney (117) at Adelaide Hills (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 28) Greater Western Sydney by 7
Port Adelaide (111) defeated Essendon (42) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 69) Port Adelaide by 25
Richmond (60) lost to St Kilda (67) at Norwood Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 7) St Kilda by 10
West Coast (78) lost to Sydney (104) at Adelaide Hills (SA) [Sydney by 26) Sydney by 49
Western Bulldogs (91) lost to Geelong (95) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 4) Western Bulldogs by 0

Round 5

Carlton (98) lost to Adelaide (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 2) Carlton by 18
Geelong (139) defeated North Melbourne (64) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 75) Geelong by 48
Gold Coast (109) defeated Hawthorn (56) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 53) Gold Coast by 12
Greater Western Sydney (80) defeated St Kilda (79) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 1) Greater Western Sydney by 12
Melbourne (60) lost to Brisbane Lions (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 22) Melbourne by 12
Port Adelaide (66) defeated Fremantle (63) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 3) Port Adelaide by 16
West Coast (109) defeated Richmond (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 39) Richmond by 11
Western Bulldogs (67) lost to Essendon (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 29) Western Bulldogs by 15

Round 6

Adelaide (75) lost to Essendon (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 3) Adelaide by 16
Brisbane Lions (37) lost to Geelong (63) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 26) Brisbane Lions by 4
Carlton (117) defeated Greater Western Sydney (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 19) Carlton by 5
Collingwood (123) defeated Port Adelaide (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 42) Collingwood by 1
North Melbourne (68) lost to Hawthorn (113) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 45) Hawthorn by 13
St Kilda (64) lost to Western Bulldogs (124) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 60) St Kilda by 1
Sydney (110) defeated Gold Coast (57) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 53) Sydney by 10
West Coast (105) defeated Fremantle (68) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 37) Fremantle by 28

Round 7

Essendon (85) drew with Collingwood (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Collingwood by 10
Fremantle (95) defeated Western Bulldogs (71) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 24) Fremantle by 2
Geelong (118) defeated Carlton (105) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 13) Geelong by 11
Gold Coast (112) defeated West Coast (75) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 37) Gold Coast by 31
Greater Western Sydney (113) defeated Brisbane Lions (59) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 54) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Hawthorn (42) lost to Sydney (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 76) Sydney by 12
North Melbourne (81) lost to Adelaide (138) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Adelaide by 57) Adelaide by 24
Port Adelaide (82) defeated St Kilda (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 10) Port Adelaide by 18
Richmond (42) lost to Melbourne (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 43) Melbourne by 27

Round 8

Adelaide (78) defeated Port Adelaide (48) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 30) Port Adelaide by 10
Brisbane Lions (79) defeated Gold Coast (45) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 34) Brisbane Lions by 10
Carlton (79) lost to Collingwood (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 6) Carlton by 15
Melbourne (74) defeated Geelong (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 8) Melbourne by 5
Richmond (49) lost to Fremantle (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 54) Fremantle by 5
St Kilda (103) defeated North Melbourne (65) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 38) St Kilda by 33
Sydney (98) defeated Greater Western Sydney (69) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 29) Greater Western Sydney by 4
West Coast (71) lost to Essendon (77) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Essendon by 6) Essendon by 9
Western Bulldogs (91) lost to Hawthorn (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 7) Western Bulldogs by 19

Round 9

Carlton (77) defeated Melbourne (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 1) Melbourne by 10
Fremantle (39) lost to Sydney (87) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 48) Fremantle by 3
Geelong (95) lost to Port Adelaide (101) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Port Adelaide by 6) Geelong by 16

Round 10

Round 11

Round 12

Round 13

Round 14

Round 15

Round 16

Round 17

Round 18

Round 19

Round 20

Round 21

Round 22

Round 23

Round 24

Elimination Final

Semi-Final

Preliminary Final

Grand Final

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		Wins	%
1	Sydney	17.0	136.5%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
2	Geelong	15.9	125.3%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
3	Melbourne	14.9	125.5%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
4	Greater Western Sydney	14.3	115.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
5	Carlton	13.9	110.6%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
6	Port Adelaide	13.9	111.8%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
7	Collingwood	12.8	106.3%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
8	Essendon	12.8	97.6%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
9	Fremantle	12.1	105.6%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
10	Brisbane Lions	11.7	110.5%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
11	Gold Coast	11.3	98.0%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12	Western Bulldogs	10.4	104.3%	3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
13	St Kilda	10.5	99.4%	3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
14	Adelaide	10.0	98.3%	4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
15	Hawthorn	8.4	83.8%	7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
16	West Coast	7.3	78.1%	9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
17	Richmond	6.5	78.4%	10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
18	North Melbourne	3.4	62.2%	15 16 17 18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 9

Adelaide 72 - 73 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.486942 - 0.513058RealScores: 72.155861 - 73.389929

Collingwood 92 - 62 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.798165 - 0.201835RealScores: 92.148029 - 61.715364

Essendon 83 - 92 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.414652 - 0.585348RealScores: 83.177190 - 91.535568

Gold Coast 94 - 66 North Melbourne
Marrara Oval (NT)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.777914 - 0.222086RealScores: 94.180325 - 66.332320

Hawthorn 64 - 74 St Kilda
York Park (TAS)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.394624 - 0.605376RealScores: 63.546555 - 73.753946

Richmond 78 - 90 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.374928 - 0.625072RealScores: 78.376822 - 90.397866

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	8 (8.00)	1	0	151.9
2	Greater Western Sydney	7 (6.58)	2	0	124.5
3	Geelong	7 (7.00)	2	0	124.3
4	Melbourne	6 (6.00)	3	0	121.1
5	Port Adelaide	6 (6.00)	3	0	112.2
6	Carlton	6 (6.00)	3	0	109.0
7	Collingwood	5 (4.76)	3	1	103.1
8	Essendon	5 (5.42)	3	1	94.7
9	Fremantle	5 (5.00)	4	0	110.1
10	Gold Coast	5 (4.74)	4	0	100.0
11	Western Bulldogs	4 (3.62)	5	0	111.9
12	Brisbane Lions	4 (3.51)	5	0	100.5
13	St Kilda	4 (3.60)	5	0	98.2
14	Adelaide	3 (3.49)	6	0	101.4
15	Hawthorn	2 (2.40)	7	0	75.4
16	West Coast	2 (2.24)	7	0	75.0
17	Richmond	1 (1.38)	8	0	73.3
18	North Melbourne	0 (0.26)	9	0	59.0

Round 10

Brisbane Lions 93 - 61 Richmond
Gabba (QLD)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.805251 - 0.194749RealScores: 92.555775 - 61.178569

Collingwood 89 - 71 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.694148 - 0.305852RealScores: 89.428697 - 70.832859

Essendon 105 - 70 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.826227 - 0.173773RealScores: 104.595405 - 70.289730

Gold Coast 72 - 83 Geelong Geelong
Marrara Oval (NT)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.384498 - 0.615502RealScores: 71.608825 - 82.748164

Greater Western Sydney 96 - 81 Western Bulldogs
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.655161 - 0.344839RealScores: 96.158046 - 81.336059

Port Adelaide 94 - 68 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.762655 - 0.237345RealScores: 93.930554 - 67.926532

St Kilda 69 - 63 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.558062 - 0.441938RealScores: 68.892532 - 63.239737

Sydney Sydney 93 - 74 Carlton Carlton
S.C.G. (NSW)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.695279 - 0.304721RealScores: 92.960594 - 74.251671

West Coast 64 - 87 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.257564 - 0.742436RealScores: 63.697027 - 87.379452

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	9 (8.67)	1	0	149.0
2	Geelong	8 (7.61)	2	0	123.5
3	Greater Western Sydney	7 (7.22)	3	0	123.9
4	Melbourne	7 (6.71)	3	0	122.6
5	Port Adelaide	7 (6.73)	3	0	114.4
6	Essendon	6 (6.21)	3	1	99.2
7	Carlton	6 (6.33)	4	0	105.9
8	Collingwood	5 (5.44)	4	1	105.1
9	Fremantle	5 (5.44)	5	0	108.3
10	Gold Coast	5 (5.14)	5	0	98.6
11	Western Bulldogs	4 (3.97)	6	0	108.7
12	Brisbane Lions	4 (4.28)	6	0	104.8
13	St Kilda	4 (4.16)	6	0	99.1
14	Adelaide	4 (3.81)	6	0	98.9
15	Hawthorn	3 (2.67)	7	0	75.1
16	West Coast	3 (2.52)	7	0	74.8
17	Richmond	2 (1.61)	8	0	72.6
18	North Melbourne	0 (0.46)	10	0	59.8

Round 11

Adelaide 94 - 66 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.775977 - 0.224023RealScores: 94.015876 - 66.406667

Carlton Carlton 87 - 69 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.681212 - 0.318788RealScores: 86.797056 - 69.478657

Fremantle 76 - 69 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.573590 - 0.426410RealScores: 76.432616 - 69.316623

Geelong Geelong 94 - 80 Greater Western Sydney
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.643911 - 0.356089RealScores: 93.527766 - 79.760367

Hawthorn 66 - 80 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.351235 - 0.648765RealScores: 65.635157 - 79.856272

Melbourne 76 - 58 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.679555 - 0.320445RealScores: 75.571845 - 58.415015

North Melbourne 70 - 116 Port Adelaide
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.10 wins - 0.90 winsRealProbs: 0.102822 - 0.897178RealScores: 70.402971 - 116.326437

Richmond 75 - 87 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.379380 - 0.620620RealScores: 74.977168 - 86.587826

Western Bulldogs 79 - 90 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.383087 - 0.616913RealScores: 78.867698 - 90.136941

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	9 (9.29)	2	0	145.3
2	Geelong	8 (8.24)	3	0	122.9
3	Greater Western Sydney	8 (7.59)	3	0	119.9
4	Port Adelaide	8 (7.60)	3	0	118.5
5	Essendon	7 (6.82)	3	1	100.5
6	Melbourne	7 (7.38)	4	0	123.2
7	Carlton	7 (6.99)	4	0	107.3
8	Collingwood	6 (5.86)	4	1	103.8
9	Fremantle	6 (6.01)	5	0	108.5
10	Brisbane Lions	5 (4.92)	6	0	106.2
11	Adelaide	5 (4.56)	6	0	102.2
12	Gold Coast	5 (5.47)	6	0	96.8
13	Western Bulldogs	4 (4.36)	7	0	106.6
14	St Kilda	4 (4.49)	7	0	97.1
15	Hawthorn	3 (3.03)	8	0	75.7
16	West Coast	3 (2.78)	8	0	74.4
17	Richmond	2 (2.00)	9	0	73.8
18	North Melbourne	1 (0.60)	10	0	59.8

Round 12

Collingwood 86 - 82 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.550257 - 0.449743RealScores: 86.431476 - 81.885939

Geelong Geelong 102 - 66 Richmond
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.842835 - 0.157165RealScores: 102.494676 - 65.719267

Gold Coast 80 - 70 Essendon
Carrara (QLD)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.597199 - 0.402801RealScores: 79.694694 - 70.240614

Hawthorn 77 - 76 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.519372 - 0.480628RealScores: 77.361361 - 75.925600

Melbourne 73 - 59 Fremantle
Traeger Park (NT)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.643922 - 0.356078RealScores: 73.022912 - 59.254503

Port Adelaide 92 - 80 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.627310 - 0.372690RealScores: 92.460944 - 80.233291

West Coast 69 - 78 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.408006 - 0.591994RealScores: 69.445863 - 78.362012

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	9 (9.29)	2	0	145.3
2	Geelong	9 (9.05)	3	0	125.3
3	Melbourne	8 (8.01)	4	0	123.2
4	Greater Western Sydney	8 (7.59)	3	0	119.9
5	Port Adelaide	8 (8.22)	4	0	118.2
6	Essendon	7 (7.23)	4	1	99.5
7	Carlton	7 (7.37)	5	0	105.5
8	Collingwood	6 (6.41)	5	1	104.0
9	Fremantle	6 (6.38)	6	0	106.1
10	Gold Coast	6 (6.07)	6	0	98.0
11	Brisbane Lions	5 (4.92)	6	0	106.2
12	Western Bulldogs	5 (4.82)	7	0	105.6
13	Adelaide	5 (5.04)	7	0	101.9
14	St Kilda	5 (5.08)	7	0	98.3
15	Hawthorn	4 (3.55)	8	0	77.5
16	West Coast	3 (3.19)	9	0	75.4
17	Richmond	2 (2.19)	10	0	72.9
18	North Melbourne	1 (0.60)	10	0	59.8

Round 13

Adelaide 92 - 70 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.726923 - 0.273077RealScores: 91.599449 - 69.614686

Collingwood 69 - 78 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.412322 - 0.587678RealScores: 69.339614 - 77.648230

Essendon 77 - 88 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.384673 - 0.615327RealScores: 77.117905 - 88.241124

Hawthorn 73 - 92 Greater Western Sydney
York Park (TAS)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.309517 - 0.690483RealScores: 73.478276 - 91.709151

St Kilda 73 - 64 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.593871 - 0.406129RealScores: 73.291455 - 64.322381

Sydney Sydney 89 - 75 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.651811 - 0.348189RealScores: 89.407265 - 74.900434

West Coast 98 - 74 North Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.741555 - 0.258445RealScores: 97.770533 - 74.186338

Western Bulldogs 77 - 80 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.463146 - 0.536854RealScores: 76.540382 - 79.597978

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	10 (9.93)	2	0	143.0
2	Melbourne	9 (8.60)	4	0	122.3
3	Geelong	9 (9.41)	4	0	121.6
4	Essendon	8 (7.62)	4	1	98.5
5	Greater Western Sydney	8 (8.26)	4	0	120.3
6	Port Adelaide	8 (8.22)	4	0	118.2
7	Carlton	8 (7.98)	5	0	106.1
8	Collingwood	7 (6.83)	5	1	102.9
9	Fremantle	6 (6.38)	6	0	106.1
10	Adelaide	6 (5.75)	7	0	104.0
11	St Kilda	6 (5.67)	7	0	99.3
12	Gold Coast	6 (6.48)	7	0	97.3
13	Brisbane Lions	5 (5.45)	7	0	106.0
14	Western Bulldogs	5 (5.28)	8	0	104.9
15	West Coast	4 (3.90)	9	0	78.9
16	Hawthorn	4 (3.88)	9	0	77.7
17	Richmond	2 (2.49)	11	0	73.1
18	North Melbourne	1 (0.88)	11	0	61.0

Round 14

Adelaide 74 - 87 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.367989 - 0.632011RealScores: 74.377238 - 87.039403

Brisbane Lions 78 - 59 St Kilda
Gabba (QLD)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.694404 - 0.305596RealScores: 77.773067 - 59.151659

Greater Western Sydney 93 - 83 Port Adelaide
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.604651 - 0.395349RealScores: 93.424807 - 83.436187

North Melbourne 67 - 113 Collingwood
Docklands (VIC)0.11 wins - 0.89 winsRealProbs: 0.106181 - 0.893819RealScores: 67.325686 - 112.632019

Richmond 75 - 81 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.439629 - 0.560371RealScores: 75.388221 - 80.714448

Western Bulldogs 80 - 71 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.599797 - 0.400203RealScores: 80.227341 - 70.761467

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	11 (10.55)	2	0	140.9
2	Melbourne	9 (8.60)	4	0	122.3
3	Geelong	9 (9.41)	4	0	121.6
4	Greater Western Sydney	9 (8.86)	4	0	119.6
5	Port Adelaide	9 (8.62)	4	0	115.6
6	Collingwood	8 (7.69)	5	1	106.7
7	Essendon	8 (7.62)	4	1	98.5
8	Carlton	8 (7.98)	5	0	106.1
9	Fremantle	7 (6.79)	6	0	104.6
10	Brisbane Lions	6 (6.13)	7	0	107.6
11	Western Bulldogs	6 (5.88)	8	0	105.4
12	Adelaide	6 (6.12)	8	0	102.5
13	St Kilda	6 (6.00)	8	0	97.6
14	Gold Coast	6 (6.48)	7	0	97.3
15	Hawthorn	4 (4.43)	10	0	79.4
16	West Coast	4 (3.90)	9	0	78.9
17	Richmond	3 (2.93)	11	0	74.4
18	North Melbourne	1 (1.02)	12	0	60.9

Round 15

Carlton Carlton 84 - 86 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.474681 - 0.525319RealScores: 83.819743 - 85.506743

Essendon 94 - 67 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.770750 - 0.229250RealScores: 93.851753 - 66.879910

Fremantle 76 - 60 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.662190 - 0.337810RealScores: 75.829220 - 60.341972

Greater Western Sydney 81 - 90 Sydney Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.404911 - 0.595089RealScores: 81.041518 - 89.874863

Melbourne 111 - 55 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.95 wins - 0.05 winsRealProbs: 0.945174 - 0.054826RealScores: 110.811648 - 55.229230

Port Adelaide 80 - 75 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.560976 - 0.439024RealScores: 80.381326 - 75.109388

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	11 (11.14)	3	0	138.4
2	Melbourne	10 (9.51)	4	0	127.0
3	Geelong	10 (9.93)	4	0	120.0
4	Greater Western Sydney	9 (9.27)	5	0	117.3
5	Port Adelaide	9 (9.17)	5	0	115.1
6	Collingwood	8 (7.69)	5	1	106.7
7	Essendon	8 (8.36)	5	1	100.9
8	Carlton	8 (8.46)	6	0	105.5
9	Brisbane Lions	7 (6.58)	7	0	106.5
10	Fremantle	7 (7.44)	7	0	105.9
11	Gold Coast	7 (6.83)	7	0	96.1
12	Western Bulldogs	6 (5.88)	8	0	105.4
13	Adelaide	6 (6.12)	8	0	102.5
14	St Kilda	6 (6.00)	8	0	97.6
15	Hawthorn	4 (4.43)	10	0	79.4
16	West Coast	4 (4.16)	10	0	78.4
17	Richmond	3 (2.93)	11	0	74.4
18	North Melbourne	1 (1.10)	13	0	60.1

Round 16

Adelaide 83 - 87 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.448983 - 0.551017RealScores: 82.504464 - 86.655882

Brisbane Lions 70 - 66 Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.545526 - 0.454474RealScores: 69.700002 - 66.101822

Geelong Geelong 90 - 74 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.665078 - 0.334922RealScores: 89.602984 - 73.840850

Gold Coast 75 - 77 Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.473588 - 0.526412RealScores: 75.104383 - 76.800815

North Melbourne 71 - 114 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.12 wins - 0.88 winsRealProbs: 0.115654 - 0.884346RealScores: 70.798467 - 114.402787

Richmond 73 - 97 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.259997 - 0.740003RealScores: 73.110919 - 96.522613

St Kilda 76 - 77 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.476401 - 0.523599RealScores: 75.581170 - 77.000780

Sydney Sydney 85 - 62 Fremantle
S.C.G. (NSW)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.736872 - 0.263128RealScores: 84.752455 - 61.686775

West Coast 76 - 78 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.470122 - 0.529878RealScores: 76.454656 - 78.493248

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	12 (11.85)	3	0	138.3
2	Geelong	11 (10.58)	4	0	120.1
3	Melbourne	10 (9.97)	5	0	124.7
4	Greater Western Sydney	10 (9.82)	5	0	116.5
5	Port Adelaide	10 (9.69)	5	0	114.2
6	Essendon	9 (8.71)	5	1	99.6
7	Carlton	9 (9.18)	6	0	107.1
8	Collingwood	8 (8.21)	6	1	106.5
9	Fremantle	8 (7.72)	7	0	103.2
10	Western Bulldogs	7 (6.73)	8	0	108.7
11	Brisbane Lions	7 (7.12)	8	0	106.4
12	Adelaide	7 (6.58)	8	0	101.9
13	Gold Coast	7 (7.31)	8	0	96.2
14	St Kilda	6 (6.48)	9	0	97.7
15	Hawthorn	5 (4.96)	10	0	80.8
16	West Coast	5 (4.64)	10	0	79.5
17	Richmond	3 (3.21)	12	0	74.5
18	North Melbourne	1 (1.25)	14	0	60.2

Round 17

Brisbane Lions 85 - 64 Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.716109 - 0.283891RealScores: 84.862531 - 64.023260

Collingwood 87 - 74 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.634501 - 0.365499RealScores: 86.797360 - 73.928183

Fremantle 86 - 61 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.756270 - 0.243730RealScores: 86.246034 - 60.989470

Geelong Geelong 95 - 64 Hawthorn
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.800377 - 0.199623RealScores: 94.967790 - 64.242492

Greater Western Sydney 93 - 83 Carlton Carlton
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.610432 - 0.389568RealScores: 93.087483 - 82.849031

Melbourne 98 - 53 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.897146 - 0.102854RealScores: 98.497056 - 52.579423

North Melbourne 69 - 97 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.219720 - 0.780280RealScores: 69.015494 - 97.157150

Port Adelaide 96 - 78 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.686785 - 0.313215RealScores: 96.002900 - 78.137723

St Kilda 67 - 81 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.359815 - 0.640185RealScores: 67.488568 - 80.908916

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	12 (12.49)	4	0	137.2
2	Melbourne	11 (10.84)	5	0	127.9
3	Geelong	11 (11.36)	5	0	121.6
4	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.42)	6	0	116.2
5	Port Adelaide	10 (10.36)	6	0	114.8
6	Carlton	10 (9.57)	6	0	105.8
7	Collingwood	9 (8.84)	6	1	107.1
8	Essendon	9 (9.08)	6	1	98.7
9	Brisbane Lions	8 (7.81)	8	0	107.9
10	Fremantle	8 (8.45)	8	0	105.3
11	Gold Coast	8 (8.06)	8	0	98.6
12	Western Bulldogs	7 (7.06)	9	0	106.7
13	Adelaide	7 (6.88)	9	0	100.1
14	St Kilda	7 (6.85)	9	0	96.7
15	Hawthorn	5 (5.18)	11	0	79.9
16	West Coast	5 (4.77)	11	0	77.7
17	Richmond	3 (3.48)	13	0	74.3
18	North Melbourne	1 (1.50)	15	0	60.8

Round 18

Adelaide 77 - 68 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.604931 - 0.395069RealScores: 77.306145 - 67.767132

Collingwood 81 - 83 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.469589 - 0.530411RealScores: 81.362070 - 83.271800

Gold Coast 77 - 80 Port Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.465584 - 0.534416RealScores: 77.446699 - 79.751269

Hawthorn 66 - 74 Fremantle
York Park (TAS)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.412753 - 0.587247RealScores: 66.074798 - 73.746377

Melbourne 83 - 63 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.706851 - 0.293149RealScores: 83.033260 - 63.152406

Richmond 77 - 97 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.294201 - 0.705799RealScores: 77.327306 - 97.100498

Sydney Sydney 125 - 59 North Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.99 wins - 0.01 winsRealProbs: 0.990000 - 0.010000RealScores: 125.488015 - 59.316138

West Coast 65 - 89 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.261444 - 0.738556RealScores: 65.283255 - 88.534716

Western Bulldogs 85 - 88 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.452242 - 0.547758RealScores: 84.758916 - 88.390657

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	13 (13.45)	4	0	141.0
2	Melbourne	12 (11.53)	5	0	128.1
3	Geelong	12 (11.88)	5	0	120.4
4	Greater Western Sydney	11 (11.11)	6	0	116.8
5	Port Adelaide	11 (10.88)	6	0	114.1
6	Carlton	10 (10.11)	7	0	105.7
7	Collingwood	9 (9.32)	7	1	106.5
8	Essendon	9 (9.39)	7	1	97.4
9	Brisbane Lions	9 (8.53)	8	0	109.4
10	Fremantle	9 (9.03)	8	0	105.7
11	Gold Coast	9 (8.53)	8	0	98.6
12	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.52)	9	0	106.0
13	Adelaide	7 (7.48)	10	0	100.9
14	St Kilda	7 (7.25)	10	0	96.2
15	Hawthorn	6 (5.61)	11	0	80.4
16	West Coast	5 (5.05)	12	0	77.5
17	Richmond	4 (3.80)	13	0	74.6
18	North Melbourne	2 (1.54)	15	0	59.9

Round 19

Brisbane Lions 76 - 75 Sydney Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.512050 - 0.487950RealScores: 75.062181 - 75.021889

Carlton Carlton 118 - 67 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.922173 - 0.077827RealScores: 118.007385 - 67.255827

Essendon 83 - 75 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.598887 - 0.401113RealScores: 83.415485 - 74.620120

Fremantle 65 - 67 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.469512 - 0.530488RealScores: 65.221665 - 67.055750

Geelong Geelong 95 - 75 Western Bulldogs
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.707216 - 0.292784RealScores: 95.404954 - 75.486635

Greater Western Sydney 89 - 71 Gold Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.691453 - 0.308547RealScores: 89.302532 - 70.975247

Hawthorn 70 - 87 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.320908 - 0.679092RealScores: 69.593140 - 86.704948

Port Adelaide 103 - 68 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.827908 - 0.172092RealScores: 102.669285 - 68.119894

St Kilda 88 - 60 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.772790 - 0.227210RealScores: 87.513611 - 60.294265

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	14 (13.95)	4	0	138.5
2	Geelong	13 (12.56)	5	0	120.7
3	Melbourne	12 (12.05)	6	0	126.7
4	Greater Western Sydney	12 (11.78)	6	0	117.2
5	Port Adelaide	12 (11.68)	6	0	115.8
6	Carlton	11 (11.01)	7	0	108.8
7	Collingwood	10 (9.98)	7	1	107.4
8	Essendon	10 (9.98)	7	1	98.1
9	Fremantle	10 (9.51)	8	0	105.2
10	Brisbane Lions	9 (9.03)	9	0	108.8
11	Gold Coast	9 (8.86)	9	0	97.4
12	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.83)	10	0	104.3
13	Adelaide	8 (7.89)	10	0	100.2
14	St Kilda	8 (8.00)	10	0	98.4
15	Hawthorn	6 (5.94)	12	0	80.4
16	West Coast	5 (5.31)	13	0	77.0
17	Richmond	4 (4.00)	14	0	74.1
18	North Melbourne	2 (1.64)	16	0	59.8

Round 20

Adelaide 85 - 68 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.678482 - 0.321518RealScores: 85.169719 - 68.117242

Carlton Carlton 90 - 83 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.586319 - 0.413681RealScores: 90.039393 - 82.654842

Collingwood 95 - 70 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.756051 - 0.243949RealScores: 95.034568 - 69.803347

Fremantle 86 - 61 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.749621 - 0.250379RealScores: 85.609532 - 61.117086

Gold Coast 65 - 76 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.377614 - 0.622386RealScores: 64.913600 - 76.123995

Melbourne 85 - 69 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.663620 - 0.336380RealScores: 85.111034 - 69.487810

North Melbourne 66 - 119 Geelong Geelong
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.07 wins - 0.93 winsRealProbs: 0.069014 - 0.930986RealScores: 66.015700 - 118.572675

St Kilda 74 - 71 Essendon
Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.543636 - 0.456364RealScores: 74.254063 - 71.202599

Sydney Sydney 97 - 72 Western Bulldogs
S.C.G. (NSW)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.752184 - 0.247816RealScores: 96.894981 - 72.109657

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	15 (14.67)	4	0	138.3
2	Melbourne	13 (12.70)	6	0	126.5
3	Geelong	13 (13.47)	6	0	123.4
4	Greater Western Sydney	12 (12.13)	7	0	115.2
5	Port Adelaide	12 (12.11)	7	0	114.4
6	Carlton	12 (11.58)	7	0	108.8
7	Collingwood	11 (10.71)	7	1	108.7
8	Essendon	10 (10.45)	8	1	98.0
9	Brisbane Lions	10 (9.64)	9	0	109.2
10	Fremantle	10 (10.23)	9	0	106.8
11	Adelaide	9 (8.55)	10	0	101.3
12	St Kilda	9 (8.53)	10	0	98.6
13	Gold Coast	9 (9.25)	10	0	96.8
14	Western Bulldogs	8 (8.11)	11	0	102.5
15	Hawthorn	6 (6.28)	13	0	80.4
16	West Coast	6 (5.58)	13	0	76.7
17	Richmond	4 (4.27)	15	0	74.0
18	North Melbourne	2 (1.74)	17	0	59.5

Round 21

Collingwood 84 - 83 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.525869 - 0.474131RealScores: 84.103278 - 82.873353

Essendon 74 - 70 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.553782 - 0.446218RealScores: 73.984936 - 70.001254

Geelong Geelong 95 - 68 Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.775902 - 0.224098RealScores: 95.270634 - 67.670667

Greater Western Sydney 96 - 69 Hawthorn
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.770294 - 0.229706RealScores: 96.052039 - 69.135388

North Melbourne 77 - 98 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.287370 - 0.712630RealScores: 77.223330 - 97.700133

Port Adelaide 83 - 85 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.462802 - 0.537198RealScores: 82.831180 - 85.169403

St Kilda 66 - 71 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.433267 - 0.566733RealScores: 65.818083 - 71.106644

West Coast 71 - 81 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.387366 - 0.612634RealScores: 71.218796 - 81.284142

Western Bulldogs 71 - 82 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.374119 - 0.625881RealScores: 70.596640 - 82.088388

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	15 (15.20)	5	0	136.2
2	Geelong	14 (14.21)	6	0	124.2
3	Melbourne	13 (13.31)	7	0	125.9
4	Greater Western Sydney	13 (12.87)	7	0	116.3
5	Port Adelaide	13 (12.58)	7	0	113.5
6	Carlton	12 (12.07)	8	0	108.3
7	Collingwood	11 (11.22)	8	1	108.3
8	Essendon	11 (10.99)	8	1	98.3
9	Fremantle	11 (10.69)	9	0	106.2
10	Brisbane Lions	10 (10.19)	10	0	109.2
11	Gold Coast	10 (9.85)	10	0	97.5
12	Adelaide	9 (8.80)	11	0	99.5
13	St Kilda	9 (8.98)	11	0	98.4
14	Western Bulldogs	8 (8.50)	12	0	101.7
15	Hawthorn	7 (6.54)	13	0	79.9
16	West Coast	6 (5.99)	14	0	77.2
17	Richmond	5 (4.96)	15	0	76.2
18	North Melbourne	2 (2.05)	18	0	60.4

Round 22

Adelaide 86 - 80 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.570951 - 0.429049RealScores: 85.769280 - 80.131911

Brisbane Lions 85 - 74 Greater Western Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.622995 - 0.377005RealScores: 84.697707 - 73.611331

Carlton Carlton 90 - 71 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.704194 - 0.295806RealScores: 90.216611 - 70.607239

Essendon 78 - 72 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.580937 - 0.419063RealScores: 78.296832 - 71.638475

Fremantle 75 - 73 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.531757 - 0.468243RealScores: 74.877209 - 73.144417

Melbourne 84 - 68 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.676339 - 0.323661RealScores: 84.375808 - 67.531334

North Melbourne 81 - 91 West Coast
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.378425 - 0.621575RealScores: 80.511808 - 91.445063

Richmond 66 - 82 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.335824 - 0.664176RealScores: 66.415957 - 82.062600

Sydney Sydney 92 - 71 Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.717842 - 0.282158RealScores: 91.811483 - 70.790576

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	16 (15.89)	5	0	135.9
2	Geelong	15 (14.70)	6	0	122.9
3	Melbourne	14 (13.97)	7	0	125.9
4	Greater Western Sydney	13 (13.27)	8	0	114.8
5	Port Adelaide	13 (12.93)	8	0	111.8
6	Carlton	13 (12.75)	8	0	109.1
7	Collingwood	12 (11.53)	8	1	106.6
8	Essendon	12 (11.56)	8	1	98.8
9	Brisbane Lions	11 (10.80)	10	0	109.5
10	Fremantle	11 (11.21)	10	0	106.0
11	St Kilda	10 (9.63)	11	0	99.4
12	Gold Coast	10 (10.28)	11	0	97.3
13	Western Bulldogs	9 (8.94)	12	0	101.3
14	Adelaide	9 (9.36)	12	0	99.8
15	Hawthorn	7 (6.86)	14	0	79.8
16	West Coast	7 (6.59)	14	0	78.8
17	Richmond	5 (5.31)	16	0	76.4
18	North Melbourne	2 (2.44)	19	0	61.5

Round 23

Collingwood 77 - 74 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.547653 - 0.452347RealScores: 76.819019 - 73.593002

Essendon 73 - 89 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.322826 - 0.677174RealScores: 72.512961 - 89.438400

Gold Coast 64 - 74 Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.387834 - 0.612166RealScores: 64.074404 - 73.914169

Greater Western Sydney 85 - 69 Fremantle
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.666541 - 0.333459RealScores: 84.771063 - 68.955019

Hawthorn 82 - 75 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.585554 - 0.414446RealScores: 81.578609 - 74.524061

Port Adelaide 90 - 76 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.643612 - 0.356388RealScores: 89.559159 - 76.313369

St Kilda 71 - 79 Geelong Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.399466 - 0.600534RealScores: 70.620812 - 79.232683

West Coast 74 - 96 Carlton Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.274774 - 0.725226RealScores: 73.786125 - 95.589196

Western Bulldogs 116 - 69 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.902422 - 0.097578RealScores: 116.051471 - 69.149783

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	17 (16.55)	5	0	135.3
2	Melbourne	15 (14.57)	7	0	125.4
3	Geelong	15 (15.28)	7	0	122.5
4	Greater Western Sydney	14 (13.92)	8	0	115.1
5	Port Adelaide	14 (13.55)	8	0	112.0
6	Carlton	13 (13.45)	9	0	109.9
7	Collingwood	12 (12.06)	9	1	106.5
8	Essendon	12 (11.90)	9	1	97.9
9	Fremantle	12 (11.56)	10	0	104.6
10	Brisbane Lions	11 (11.27)	11	0	108.8
11	Gold Coast	11 (10.69)	11	0	96.8
12	Western Bulldogs	10 (9.81)	12	0	103.8
13	Adelaide	10 (9.73)	12	0	99.1
14	St Kilda	10 (10.04)	12	0	98.9
15	Hawthorn	7 (7.42)	15	0	81.0
16	West Coast	7 (6.89)	15	0	78.7
17	Richmond	6 (5.74)	16	0	77.0
18	North Melbourne	3 (2.57)	19	0	61.4

Round 24

Brisbane Lions 86 - 64 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.729282 - 0.270718RealScores: 85.792573 - 63.553928

Carlton Carlton 80 - 71 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.607701 - 0.392299RealScores: 80.481793 - 71.196240

Fremantle 79 - 72 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.579045 - 0.420955RealScores: 78.557748 - 72.246515

Geelong Geelong 110 - 58 West Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.931125 - 0.068875RealScores: 110.436107 - 57.850177

Hawthorn 99 - 69 North Melbourne
York Park (TAS)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.790628 - 0.209372RealScores: 98.745891 - 69.294463

Melbourne 79 - 68 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.617841 - 0.382159RealScores: 78.674678 - 68.313166

Richmond 74 - 79 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.434973 - 0.565027RealScores: 74.125036 - 79.015173

Sydney Sydney 96 - 66 Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.796900 - 0.203100RealScores: 95.841477 - 65.575165

Western Bulldogs 88 - 89 Greater Western Sydney
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.471477 - 0.528523RealScores: 88.104443 - 89.389662

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	17 (17.31)	6	0	135.7
2	Geelong	16 (16.18)	7	0	124.8
3	Melbourne	15 (15.16)	8	0	124.9
4	Greater Western Sydney	14 (14.43)	9	0	114.5
5	Port Adelaide	14 (13.99)	9	0	111.2
6	Carlton	14 (14.04)	9	0	110.0
7	Collingwood	12 (12.46)	10	1	105.7
8	Essendon	12 (12.19)	10	1	96.8
9	Brisbane Lions	12 (11.97)	11	0	109.8
10	Fremantle	12 (12.12)	11	0	104.8
11	Gold Coast	11 (11.23)	12	0	97.2
12	Western Bulldogs	10 (10.30)	13	0	103.6
13	St Kilda	10 (10.45)	13	0	98.4
14	Adelaide	10 (9.97)	13	0	97.5
15	Hawthorn	8 (8.18)	15	0	83.1
16	West Coast	7 (6.99)	16	0	77.3
17	Richmond	6 (6.20)	17	0	77.7
18	North Melbourne	3 (2.81)	20	0	61.7

FINALS: WEEK 1

Sydney Sydney 92 - 79 Greater Western Sydney
S.C.G. (NSW)

Geelong Geelong 71 - 77 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)

Carlton Carlton 89 - 76 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)

Port Adelaide 90 - 78 Collingwood
Adelaide Oval (SA)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Greater Western Sydney 93 - 83 Carlton Carlton
Stadium Australia (NSW)

Geelong Geelong 89 - 81 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Sydney Sydney 90 - 75 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)

Melbourne 85 - 70 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

2024 AFL GRAND FINAL

Melbourne 76 - 71 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE7

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Sydney	60.2	63.3	61.8
2	Melbourne	53.3	68.4	60.8
3	Brisbane Lions	53.3	65.1	59.2
4	Geelong	58.2	59.3	58.7
5	Greater Western Sydney	59.7	56.3	58.0
6	Port Adelaide	57.7	56.5	57.1
7	Carlton	56.9	56.3	56.6
8	Collingwood	55.1	57.7	56.4
9	Fremantle	47.8	62.2	55.0
10	Western Bulldogs	55.6	54.2	54.9
11	Gold Coast	49.1	58.9	54.0
12	St Kilda	47.4	60.3	53.8
13	Adelaide	51.1	55.1	53.1
14	Essendon	51.0	54.7	52.8
15	Hawthorn	47.4	54.1	50.7
16	Richmond	47.4	49.3	48.4
17	West Coast	44.4	47.3	45.8
18	North Melbourne	44.0	40.7	42.3

Greater Western Sydney def Adelaide	1.7%
Brisbane Lions def Adelaide	1.6%
Adelaide def Brisbane Lions	1.6%
Adelaide def Greater Western Sydney	1.6%
Melbourne def Adelaide	1.6%
Geelong def Adelaide	1.6%
Geelong def Brisbane Lions	1.5%
Greater Western Sydney def Brisbane Lions	1.5%
Geelong def Greater Western Sydney	1.4%
Brisbane Lions def Greater Western Sydney	1.4%
Adelaide def Geelong	1.4%
Melbourne def Greater Western Sydney	1.4%
Brisbane Lions def Geelong	1.3%
Adelaide def Melbourne	1.3%
Melbourne def Brisbane Lions	1.3%
Melbourne def Geelong	1.3%
Greater Western Sydney def Melbourne	1.3%
Greater Western Sydney def Geelong	1.2%
Geelong def Melbourne	1.2%
Adelaide def Fremantle	1.2%

		Flagpole Height
1	Sydney	61.6
2	Melbourne	60.2
3	Geelong	58.5
4	Greater Western Sydney	57.0
5	Port Adelaide	55.9
6	Brisbane Lions	55.8
7	Carlton	55.4
8	Collingwood	54.3
9	Fremantle	52.1
10	Essendon	50.7
11	Gold Coast	49.9
12	Western Bulldogs	49.5
13	St Kilda	48.6
14	Adelaide	47.0
15	Hawthorn	40.9
16	Richmond	34.7
17	West Coast	34.4
18	North Melbourne	21.0