Squiggle 2023

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

2023 ROUND 28 TIPS

Collingwood 76 - 77 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +9.5 pts
Ins/Outs: +2.1 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE7
Tips after Round 27: 151

History...

In 2023, algorithm SQUIGGLE7 correctly tipped 151 games at an accuracy of 69.91%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1

Hawthorn (100) lost to Collingwood (106) at York Park (TAS) [Collingwood by 6)
Fremantle (92) defeated Port Adelaide (61) at Fremantle Oval (WA) [Fremantle by 31)
Brisbane Lions (91) defeated Geelong (45) at Springfield Central Stadium (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 46)
St Kilda (67) defeated Essendon (32) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 35)
Sydney (97) defeated Carlton (54) at Blacktown (NSW) [Sydney by 43)
West Coast (52) lost to Adelaide (111) at Mineral Resources Park (WA) [Adelaide by 59)
Greater Western Sydney (122) defeated Gold Coast (77) at Blacktown (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 45)
Western Bulldogs (143) defeated North Melbourne (85) at Princes Park (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 58)
Melbourne (121) defeated Richmond (71) at Casey Fields (VIC) [Melbourne by 50)

Round 1

Geelong (103) lost to Collingwood (125) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 22) Geelong by 12
Gold Coast (61) lost to Sydney (110) at Carrara (QLD) [Sydney by 49) Sydney by 13
Greater Western Sydney (106) defeated Adelaide (90) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 16) Greater Western Sydney by 9
Hawthorn (65) lost to Essendon (124) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 59) Hawthorn by 2
Melbourne (115) defeated Western Bulldogs (65) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 50) Melbourne by 2
North Melbourne (87) defeated West Coast (82) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 5) North Melbourne by 1
Port Adelaide (126) defeated Brisbane Lions (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 54) Port Adelaide by 0
Richmond (58) drew with Carlton (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Richmond by 5
St Kilda (67) defeated Fremantle (52) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 15) Fremantle by 2

Round 2

Adelaide (76) lost to Richmond (108) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Richmond by 32) Richmond by 2
Brisbane Lions (93) defeated Melbourne (82) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 11) Melbourne by 11
Carlton (90) defeated Geelong (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 8) Geelong by 4
Collingwood (135) defeated Port Adelaide (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 71) Collingwood by 12
Essendon (108) defeated Gold Coast (80) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 28) Essendon by 11
Fremantle (72) lost to North Melbourne (73) at Perth Stadium (WA) [North Melbourne by 1) Fremantle by 25
Sydney (118) defeated Hawthorn (37) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 81) Sydney by 32
West Coast (100) defeated Greater Western Sydney (81) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 19) Greater Western Sydney by 5
Western Bulldogs (41) lost to St Kilda (92) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 51) St Kilda by 6

Round 3

Collingwood (63) defeated Richmond (49) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 14) Collingwood by 24
Fremantle (108) defeated West Coast (67) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 41) Fremantle by 19
Gold Coast (73) defeated Geelong (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 19) Geelong by 16
Greater Western Sydney (64) lost to Carlton (74) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Carlton by 10) Carlton by 12
Hawthorn (80) defeated North Melbourne (61) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 19) Hawthorn by 10
Melbourne (134) defeated Sydney (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 50) Sydney by 3
Port Adelaide (86) lost to Adelaide (117) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 31) Port Adelaide by 21
St Kilda (92) defeated Essendon (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 18) St Kilda by 1
Western Bulldogs (67) defeated Brisbane Lions (53) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 14) Brisbane Lions by 0

Round 4

Adelaide (111) defeated Fremantle (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 39) Adelaide by 14
Brisbane Lions (116) defeated Collingwood (83) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 33) Collingwood by 4
Essendon (88) defeated Greater Western Sydney (75) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 13) Essendon by 12
Geelong (127) defeated Hawthorn (45) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 82) Geelong by 30
North Melbourne (84) lost to Carlton (107) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 23) Carlton by 27
Richmond (84) lost to Western Bulldogs (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 5) Richmond by 6
St Kilda (113) defeated Gold Coast (60) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 53) St Kilda by 18
Sydney (64) lost to Port Adelaide (66) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Port Adelaide by 2) Sydney by 24
West Coast (63) lost to Melbourne (126) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Melbourne by 63) Melbourne by 46

Round 5

Adelaide (118) defeated Carlton (62) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 56) Carlton by 5
Brisbane Lions (152) defeated North Melbourne (77) at Adelaide Hills (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 75) Brisbane Lions by 30
Collingwood (70) defeated St Kilda (64) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 6) Collingwood by 12
Essendon (104) defeated Melbourne (77) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 27) Melbourne by 15
Fremantle (100) defeated Gold Coast (90) at Norwood Oval (SA) [Fremantle by 10) Gold Coast by 8
Geelong (136) defeated West Coast (89) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 47) Geelong by 42
Greater Western Sydney (77) defeated Hawthorn (75) at Norwood Oval (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 2) Greater Western Sydney by 10
Port Adelaide (70) defeated Western Bulldogs (56) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 14) Port Adelaide by 18
Richmond (78) lost to Sydney (122) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Sydney by 44) Sydney by 7

Round 6

Carlton (60) lost to St Kilda (82) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 22) St Kilda by 14
Collingwood (90) defeated Essendon (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 13) Collingwood by 22
Fremantle (69) lost to Western Bulldogs (118) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Western Bulldogs by 49) Fremantle by 5
Geelong (130) defeated Sydney (37) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 93) Geelong by 2
Gold Coast (97) defeated North Melbourne (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 43) Gold Coast by 28
Greater Western Sydney (87) lost to Brisbane Lions (108) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 21) Brisbane Lions by 26
Hawthorn (76) lost to Adelaide (79) at York Park (TAS) [Adelaide by 3) Adelaide by 25
Melbourne (96) defeated Richmond (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 18) Melbourne by 17
Port Adelaide (109) defeated West Coast (69) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 40) Port Adelaide by 35

Round 7

Adelaide (58) lost to Collingwood (59) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 1) Collingwood by 8
Brisbane Lions (115) defeated Fremantle (67) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 48) Brisbane Lions by 26
Essendon (104) lost to Geelong (132) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 28) Geelong by 10
Melbourne (139) defeated North Melbourne (49) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 90) Melbourne by 38
Richmond (48) lost to Gold Coast (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 24) Richmond by 16
St Kilda (76) lost to Port Adelaide (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 7) St Kilda by 15
Sydney (106) lost to Greater Western Sydney (107) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 1) Sydney by 27
West Coast (44) lost to Carlton (152) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Carlton by 108) Carlton by 22
Western Bulldogs (94) defeated Hawthorn (65) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 29) Western Bulldogs by 24

Round 8

Carlton (74) lost to Brisbane Lions (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 26) Carlton by 9
Collingwood (77) defeated Sydney (48) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 29) Collingwood by 17
Fremantle (117) defeated Hawthorn (48) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 69) Fremantle by 17
Geelong (98) defeated Adelaide (72) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 26) Geelong by 26
Gold Coast (85) lost to Melbourne (90) at Carrara (QLD) [Melbourne by 5) Melbourne by 16
Greater Western Sydney (71) lost to Western Bulldogs (86) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 15) Western Bulldogs by 14
North Melbourne (34) lost to St Kilda (64) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 30) St Kilda by 29
Port Adelaide (92) defeated Essendon (87) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 5) Port Adelaide by 18
Richmond (104) defeated West Coast (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 46) Richmond by 41

Round 9

Adelaide (121) defeated St Kilda (69) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 52) Adelaide by 8
Brisbane Lions (87) defeated Essendon (45) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 42) Brisbane Lions by 30
Carlton (59) lost to Western Bulldogs (79) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 20) Carlton by 12
Collingwood (120) defeated Greater Western Sydney (55) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 65) Collingwood by 42
Hawthorn (49) lost to Melbourne (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 54) Melbourne by 36
North Melbourne (65) lost to Port Adelaide (135) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Port Adelaide by 70) Port Adelaide by 25
Richmond (102) defeated Geelong (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 24) Geelong by 15
Sydney (86) lost to Fremantle (103) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Fremantle by 17) Sydney by 18
West Coast (43) lost to Gold Coast (113) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Gold Coast by 70) Gold Coast by 15

Round 10

Brisbane Lions (107) defeated Gold Coast (64) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 43) Brisbane Lions by 13
Carlton (57) lost to Collingwood (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 28) Collingwood by 14
Essendon (71) defeated Richmond (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 1) Richmond by 1
Fremantle (106) defeated Geelong (77) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 29) Geelong by 16
Greater Western Sydney (80) lost to St Kilda (92) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [St Kilda by 12) St Kilda by 11
Hawthorn (142) defeated West Coast (26) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 116) Hawthorn by 18
North Melbourne (90) lost to Sydney (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 3) Sydney by 31
Port Adelaide (80) defeated Melbourne (76) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 4) Port Adelaide by 8
Western Bulldogs (85) defeated Adelaide (40) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 45) Western Bulldogs by 14

Round 11

Adelaide (95) defeated Brisbane Lions (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 17) Brisbane Lions by 9
Collingwood (105) defeated North Melbourne (70) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 35) Collingwood by 43
Geelong (74) lost to Greater Western Sydney (81) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Greater Western Sydney by 7) Geelong by 44
Gold Coast (84) defeated Western Bulldogs (77) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 7) Western Bulldogs by 7
Melbourne (72) lost to Fremantle (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 7) Melbourne by 21
Richmond (67) lost to Port Adelaide (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 10) Port Adelaide by 0
St Kilda (78) lost to Hawthorn (88) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 10) St Kilda by 16
Sydney (77) defeated Carlton (51) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 26) Sydney by 2
West Coast (46) lost to Essendon (96) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Essendon by 50) Essendon by 32

Round 12

Essendon (105) defeated North Melbourne (99) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 6) Essendon by 32
Gold Coast (112) defeated Adelaide (87) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 25) Adelaide by 1
Greater Western Sydney (104) lost to Richmond (110) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Richmond by 6) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Melbourne (61) defeated Carlton (44) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 17) Melbourne by 6
Port Adelaide (151) defeated Hawthorn (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 55) Port Adelaide by 28
West Coast (57) lost to Collingwood (120) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Collingwood by 63) Collingwood by 46
Western Bulldogs (75) lost to Geelong (97) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 22) Western Bulldogs by 4

Round 13

Adelaide (174) defeated West Coast (52) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 122) Adelaide by 56
Carlton (52) lost to Essendon (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 34) Carlton by 4
Fremantle (70) lost to Richmond (85) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Richmond by 15) Fremantle by 4
Hawthorn (98) defeated Brisbane Lions (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 25) Brisbane Lions by 14
Melbourne (66) defeated Collingwood (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 4) Melbourne by 5
North Melbourne (75) lost to Greater Western Sydney (103) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Greater Western Sydney by 28) Greater Western Sydney by 18
Sydney (66) lost to St Kilda (80) at S.C.G. (NSW) [St Kilda by 14) Sydney by 6
Western Bulldogs (85) lost to Port Adelaide (107) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 22) Port Adelaide by 0

Round 14

Brisbane Lions (97) defeated Sydney (81) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 16) Brisbane Lions by 19
Carlton (120) defeated Gold Coast (61) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 59) Carlton by 5
Greater Western Sydney (106) defeated Fremantle (36) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 70) Greater Western Sydney by 5
North Melbourne (84) lost to Western Bulldogs (105) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 21) Western Bulldogs by 31
Port Adelaide (110) defeated Geelong (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 38) Port Adelaide by 3
Richmond (90) defeated St Kilda (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 20) Richmond by 0

Round 15

Collingwood (82) defeated Adelaide (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 2) Collingwood by 22
Fremantle (93) defeated Essendon (61) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 32) Fremantle by 9
Geelong (78) defeated Melbourne (63) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 15) Geelong by 1
Gold Coast (101) defeated Hawthorn (34) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 67) Gold Coast by 15
St Kilda (56) lost to Brisbane Lions (84) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 28) Brisbane Lions by 13
Sydney (205) defeated West Coast (34) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 171) Sydney by 57

Round 16

Adelaide (138) defeated North Melbourne (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 66) Adelaide by 43
Brisbane Lions (134) defeated Richmond (53) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 81) Brisbane Lions by 24
Essendon (74) lost to Port Adelaide (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 4) Port Adelaide by 12
Gold Coast (42) lost to Collingwood (120) at Carrara (QLD) [Collingwood by 78) Gold Coast by 4
Hawthorn (52) lost to Carlton (112) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 60) Carlton by 14
Melbourne (45) lost to Greater Western Sydney (47) at Traeger Park (NT) [Greater Western Sydney by 2) Melbourne by 17
Sydney (54) drew with Geelong (54) at S.C.G. (NSW) [DRAW by 0) Sydney by 1
West Coast (77) lost to St Kilda (85) at Perth Stadium (WA) [St Kilda by 8) St Kilda by 38
Western Bulldogs (102) defeated Fremantle (73) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 29) Western Bulldogs by 14

Round 17

Brisbane Lions (116) defeated West Coast (35) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 81) Brisbane Lions by 66
Essendon (115) defeated Adelaide (97) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 18) Essendon by 2
Fremantle (45) lost to Carlton (98) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Carlton by 53) Carlton by 3
Geelong (125) defeated North Melbourne (63) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 62) Geelong by 49
Greater Western Sydney (85) defeated Hawthorn (72) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 13) Greater Western Sydney by 19
Port Adelaide (106) defeated Gold Coast (73) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 33) Port Adelaide by 22
Richmond (88) defeated Sydney (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 13) Sydney by 8
St Kilda (58) lost to Melbourne (79) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 21) Melbourne by 17
Western Bulldogs (77) lost to Collingwood (89) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 12) Collingwood by 4

Round 18

Adelaide (57) lost to Greater Western Sydney (71) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 14) Adelaide by 21
Carlton (122) defeated Port Adelaide (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 50) Carlton by 9
Collingwood (113) defeated Fremantle (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 46) Collingwood by 41
Geelong (122) defeated Essendon (45) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 77) Geelong by 24
Gold Coast (77) defeated St Kilda (51) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 26) Gold Coast by 15
Melbourne (105) defeated Brisbane Lions (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 1) Brisbane Lions by 4
North Melbourne (40) lost to Hawthorn (88) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 48) Hawthorn by 25
Sydney (78) defeated Western Bulldogs (76) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 2) Sydney by 6
West Coast (60) lost to Richmond (98) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Richmond by 38) Richmond by 42

Round 19

Brisbane Lions (64) defeated Geelong (53) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 11) Brisbane Lions by 11
Carlton (140) defeated West Coast (69) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 71) Carlton by 65
Essendon (49) lost to Western Bulldogs (90) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 41) Western Bulldogs by 11
Fremantle (76) lost to Sydney (105) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 29) Sydney by 9
Greater Western Sydney (103) defeated Gold Coast (63) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 40) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Melbourne (97) defeated Adelaide (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 4) Melbourne by 27
Port Adelaide (83) lost to Collingwood (85) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 2) Port Adelaide by 11
Richmond (96) defeated Hawthorn (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 1) Richmond by 9
St Kilda (69) defeated North Melbourne (61) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 8) St Kilda by 22

Round 20

Adelaide (112) defeated Port Adelaide (65) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 47) Port Adelaide by 9
Collingwood (76) lost to Carlton (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 17) Carlton by 0
Essendon (99) lost to Sydney (101) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 2) Sydney by 11
Geelong (64) lost to Fremantle (71) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Fremantle by 7) Geelong by 34
Gold Coast (96) defeated Brisbane Lions (55) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 41) Brisbane Lions by 13
Hawthorn (93) lost to St Kilda (122) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 29) St Kilda by 3
Richmond (98) lost to Melbourne (130) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 32) Melbourne by 12
West Coast (72) defeated North Melbourne (67) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 5) North Melbourne by 15
Western Bulldogs (73) lost to Greater Western Sydney (78) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 5) Western Bulldogs by 16

Round 21

Adelaide (89) defeated Gold Coast (61) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 28) Adelaide by 16
Essendon (73) defeated West Coast (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 1) Essendon by 54
Fremantle (74) lost to Brisbane Lions (77) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Brisbane Lions by 3) Brisbane Lions by 7
Geelong (97) defeated Port Adelaide (85) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 12) Geelong by 17
Greater Western Sydney (85) lost to Sydney (96) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Sydney by 11) Greater Western Sydney by 10
Hawthorn (105) defeated Collingwood (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 32) Collingwood by 17
North Melbourne (71) lost to Melbourne (103) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Melbourne by 32) Melbourne by 45
St Kilda (54) lost to Carlton (73) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 19) Carlton by 6
Western Bulldogs (126) defeated Richmond (71) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 55) Western Bulldogs by 13

Round 22

Brisbane Lions (99) defeated Adelaide (93) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 6) Brisbane Lions by 22
Carlton (60) defeated Melbourne (56) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 4) Melbourne by 3
Collingwood (109) defeated Geelong (101) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 8) Collingwood by 1
Hawthorn (67) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 3) Western Bulldogs by 5
North Melbourne (77) lost to Essendon (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 9) Essendon by 20
Port Adelaide (136) defeated Greater Western Sydney (85) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 51) Port Adelaide by 24
St Kilda (93) defeated Richmond (57) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 36) Richmond by 2
Sydney (114) defeated Gold Coast (90) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 24) Sydney by 6
West Coast (33) lost to Fremantle (134) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 101) Fremantle by 35

Round 23

Adelaide (73) lost to Sydney (74) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Sydney by 1) Adelaide by 16
Collingwood (100) lost to Brisbane Lions (124) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 24) Brisbane Lions by 5
Fremantle (58) lost to Port Adelaide (74) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Port Adelaide by 16) Port Adelaide by 3
Gold Coast (87) lost to Carlton (91) at Carrara (QLD) [Carlton by 4) Carlton by 6
Greater Western Sydney (162) defeated Essendon (36) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 126) Greater Western Sydney by 15
Melbourne (87) defeated Hawthorn (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 27) Melbourne by 22
Richmond (101) defeated North Melbourne (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 29) Richmond by 36
St Kilda (88) defeated Geelong (55) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 33) Geelong by 10
Western Bulldogs (85) lost to West Coast (92) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 7) Western Bulldogs by 63

Round 24

Brisbane Lions (72) defeated St Kilda (60) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 12) Brisbane Lions by 27
Carlton (73) lost to Greater Western Sydney (105) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Carlton by 15
Essendon (31) lost to Collingwood (101) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 70) Collingwood by 36
Geelong (79) lost to Western Bulldogs (104) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Western Bulldogs by 25) Geelong by 3
Hawthorn (56) lost to Fremantle (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 37) Hawthorn by 14
North Melbourne (132) defeated Gold Coast (97) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 35) Gold Coast by 33
Port Adelaide (94) defeated Richmond (63) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 31) Port Adelaide by 40
Sydney (56) lost to Melbourne (77) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Melbourne by 21) Melbourne by 3
West Coast (78) lost to Adelaide (123) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Adelaide by 45) Adelaide by 38

Qualifying Final

Brisbane Lions (123) defeated Port Adelaide (75) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 48) Brisbane Lions by 14
Carlton (74) defeated Sydney (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 6) Carlton by 14
Collingwood (60) defeated Melbourne (53) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 7) Collingwood by 0
St Kilda (77) lost to Greater Western Sydney (101) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 24) Greater Western Sydney by 6

Semi-Final

Melbourne (71) lost to Carlton (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 2) Melbourne by 4
Port Adelaide (70) lost to Greater Western Sydney (93) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 23) Port Adelaide by 1

Preliminary Final

Brisbane Lions (79) defeated Carlton (63) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 16) Brisbane Lions by 19
Collingwood (58) defeated Greater Western Sydney (57) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 1) Collingwood by 5

Grand Final

Collingwood (90) defeated Brisbane Lions (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 4) Brisbane Lions by 1

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Greater Western Sydney	59.3	65.1	62.2
2	Melbourne	55.0	68.8	61.9
3	Brisbane Lions	61.3	61.0	61.1
4	Collingwood	57.6	63.8	60.7
5	Adelaide	60.0	57.0	58.5
6	Sydney	56.3	60.6	58.5
7	Carlton	53.5	62.8	58.2
8	Port Adelaide	59.4	56.6	58.0
9	Geelong	55.3	59.5	57.4
10	Western Bulldogs	54.4	59.1	56.7
11	Gold Coast	53.1	58.3	55.7
12	Fremantle	48.7	61.8	55.3
13	St Kilda	48.3	61.7	55.0
14	Richmond	53.9	53.0	53.5
15	Hawthorn	48.7	57.2	52.9
16	Essendon	47.3	52.9	50.1
17	North Melbourne	46.7	46.2	46.5
18	West Coast	39.1	41.9	40.5

		Flagpole Height
1	Collingwood	60.1
2	Greater Western Sydney	0.0
3	Melbourne	0.0
4	Brisbane Lions	0.0
5	Adelaide	0.0
6	Sydney	0.0
7	Carlton	0.0
8	Port Adelaide	0.0
9	Geelong	0.0
10	Western Bulldogs	0.0
11	Gold Coast	0.0
12	Fremantle	0.0
13	St Kilda	0.0
14	Richmond	0.0
15	Hawthorn	0.0
16	Essendon	0.0
17	North Melbourne	0.0
18	West Coast	0.0