INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

• They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.

• They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.

• They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).

• They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

• Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.

• Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

• Scores, obviously.

• Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.

• Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.

• Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.

• Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.

• Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

• Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.

• Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

• Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.

• Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.

• Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.

• Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.

• The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

• Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.

• Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.

• Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

• Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.

• Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.

• Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Sat Sep 24 17:11:07 2022 (R27)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 2022, algorithm SQUIGGLE7 correctly tipped 153 games at an accuracy of 73.91%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1

Carlton (98) defeated Melbourne (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 5)
Western Bulldogs (80) lost to Brisbane Lions (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 6)
Hawthorn (69) lost to Richmond (94) at Devonport Oval (TAS) [Richmond by 25)
Adelaide (74) lost to Port Adelaide (111) at John Cain Arena (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 37)
Essendon (71) lost to St Kilda (82) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 11)
Greater Western Sydney (100) defeated Collingwood (59) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 41)
Sydney (82) defeated North Melbourne (51) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Sydney by 31)
Fremantle (79) defeated West Coast (66) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 13)
Gold Coast (95) defeated Geelong (72) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 23)

Round 1

Adelaide (82) lost to Fremantle (83) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Fremantle by 1) Adelaide by 2
Brisbane Lions (80) defeated Port Adelaide (69) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 11) Brisbane Lions by 8
Carlton (101) defeated Richmond (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 25) Richmond by 8
Geelong (138) defeated Essendon (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 66) Essendon by 4
Greater Western Sydney (92) lost to Sydney (112) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 20) Sydney by 0
Hawthorn (78) defeated North Melbourne (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 20) Hawthorn by 5
Melbourne (97) defeated Western Bulldogs (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 26) Melbourne by 11
St Kilda (85) lost to Collingwood (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 17) St Kilda by 10
West Coast (80) lost to Gold Coast (107) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Gold Coast by 27) Gold Coast by 6

Round 2

Collingwood (100) defeated Adelaide (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 42) Collingwood by 17
Essendon (75) lost to Brisbane Lions (97) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 22) Brisbane Lions by 7
Fremantle (55) lost to St Kilda (65) at Perth Stadium (WA) [St Kilda by 10) Fremantle by 11
Gold Coast (69) lost to Melbourne (82) at Carrara (QLD) [Melbourne by 13) Melbourne by 26
North Melbourne (74) defeated West Coast (59) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 15) North Melbourne by 0
Port Adelaide (56) lost to Hawthorn (120) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Hawthorn by 64) Port Adelaide by 12
Richmond (109) defeated Greater Western Sydney (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 36) Greater Western Sydney by 0
Sydney (107) defeated Geelong (77) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 30) Geelong by 7
Western Bulldogs (90) lost to Carlton (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 12) Western Bulldogs by 1

Round 3

Adelaide (96) defeated Port Adelaide (92) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 4) Port Adelaide by 9
Brisbane Lions (156) defeated North Melbourne (48) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 108) Brisbane Lions by 36
Carlton (74) defeated Hawthorn (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 1) Carlton by 7
Collingwood (91) lost to Geelong (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 13) Geelong by 10
Greater Western Sydney (83) defeated Gold Coast (57) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 26) Gold Coast by 4
Melbourne (99) defeated Essendon (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 29) Melbourne by 33
St Kilda (117) defeated Richmond (84) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 33) St Kilda by 4
West Coast (47) lost to Fremantle (102) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 55) West Coast by 5
Western Bulldogs (71) defeated Sydney (60) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 11) Western Bulldogs by 11

Round 4

Collingwood (74) lost to West Coast (87) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 13) Collingwood by 23
Essendon (103) defeated Adelaide (99) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 4) Essendon by 11
Fremantle (88) defeated Greater Western Sydney (54) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 34) Fremantle by 20
Geelong (80) defeated Brisbane Lions (70) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 10) Geelong by 3
Gold Coast (92) defeated Carlton (62) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 30) Carlton by 9
Hawthorn (73) lost to St Kilda (142) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 69) St Kilda by 0
Port Adelaide (36) lost to Melbourne (68) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 32) Melbourne by 18
Richmond (99) defeated Western Bulldogs (61) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 38) Western Bulldogs by 12
Sydney (86) defeated North Melbourne (75) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 11) Sydney by 32

Round 5

Adelaide (101) defeated Richmond (82) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 19) Richmond by 9
Brisbane Lions (98) defeated Collingwood (91) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 7) Brisbane Lions by 22
Carlton (94) defeated Port Adelaide (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 3) Carlton by 5
Essendon (59) lost to Fremantle (107) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 48) Fremantle by 3
Hawthorn (92) defeated Geelong (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 12) Geelong by 18
Melbourne (120) defeated Greater Western Sydney (53) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 67) Melbourne by 29
North Melbourne (71) lost to Western Bulldogs (139) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 68) Western Bulldogs by 34
St Kilda (87) defeated Gold Coast (61) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 26) St Kilda by 15
West Coast (58) lost to Sydney (121) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 63) Sydney by 5

Round 6

Essendon (82) lost to Collingwood (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 11) Collingwood by 6
Fremantle (97) defeated Carlton (62) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 35) Fremantle by 18
Gold Coast (80) lost to Brisbane Lions (132) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 52) Brisbane Lions by 10
Greater Western Sydney (60) lost to St Kilda (77) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [St Kilda by 17) St Kilda by 9
Hawthorn (68) lost to Sydney (109) at York Park (TAS) [Sydney by 41) Sydney by 9
North Melbourne (61) lost to Geelong (121) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Geelong by 60) Geelong by 33
Port Adelaide (117) defeated West Coast (33) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 84) Port Adelaide by 38
Richmond (54) lost to Melbourne (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 22) Melbourne by 20
Western Bulldogs (62) lost to Adelaide (63) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Adelaide by 1) Western Bulldogs by 29

Round 7

Adelaide (54) lost to Greater Western Sydney (113) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 59) Adelaide by 8
Carlton (114) defeated North Melbourne (64) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 50) Carlton by 26
Collingwood (115) defeated Gold Coast (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 25) Collingwood by 8
Geelong (66) lost to Fremantle (69) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Fremantle by 3) Geelong by 18
Melbourne (91) defeated Hawthorn (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 10) Melbourne by 27
St Kilda (42) lost to Port Adelaide (43) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 1) St Kilda by 9
Sydney (89) lost to Brisbane Lions (113) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 24) Sydney by 9
West Coast (56) lost to Richmond (165) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Richmond by 109) Richmond by 15
Western Bulldogs (103) defeated Essendon (71) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 32) Western Bulldogs by 18

Round 8

Brisbane Lions (105) defeated West Coast (30) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 75) Brisbane Lions by 51
Carlton (116) defeated Adelaide (68) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 48) Carlton by 22
Essendon (108) defeated Hawthorn (81) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 27) Hawthorn by 5
Fremantle (102) defeated North Melbourne (24) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 78) Fremantle by 43
Greater Western Sydney (35) lost to Geelong (88) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Geelong by 53) Geelong by 2
Melbourne (93) defeated St Kilda (55) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 38) Melbourne by 17
Port Adelaide (86) defeated Western Bulldogs (69) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 17) Port Adelaide by 11
Richmond (113) defeated Collingwood (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 9
Sydney (61) lost to Gold Coast (75) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Gold Coast by 14) Sydney by 17

Round 9

Adelaide (66) lost to Brisbane Lions (102) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 36) Brisbane Lions by 24
Collingwood (51) lost to Western Bulldogs (99) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 48) Western Bulldogs by 10
Gold Coast (69) defeated Fremantle (33) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 36) Fremantle by 12
Greater Western Sydney (75) lost to Carlton (105) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Carlton by 30) Carlton by 2
Hawthorn (94) lost to Richmond (117) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 23) Richmond by 1
North Melbourne (46) lost to Port Adelaide (115) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Port Adelaide by 69) Port Adelaide by 30
St Kilda (90) defeated Geelong (80) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 10) Geelong by 9
Sydney (105) defeated Essendon (47) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 58) Sydney by 17
West Coast (38) lost to Melbourne (112) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Melbourne by 74) Melbourne by 50

Round 10

Adelaide (69) lost to St Kilda (90) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 21) St Kilda by 11
Carlton (102) defeated Sydney (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 15) Carlton by 1
Fremantle (44) lost to Collingwood (80) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Collingwood by 36) Fremantle by 25
Geelong (82) defeated Port Adelaide (47) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 35) Geelong by 19
Greater Western Sydney (138) defeated West Coast (86) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 52) Greater Western Sydney by 30
Hawthorn (117) defeated Brisbane Lions (112) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 5) Brisbane Lions by 14
North Melbourne (53) lost to Melbourne (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 47) Melbourne by 51
Richmond (80) defeated Essendon (48) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 32) Richmond by 13
Western Bulldogs (106) defeated Gold Coast (87) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 19) Western Bulldogs by 11

Round 11

Brisbane Lions (110) defeated Greater Western Sydney (96) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 14) Brisbane Lions by 23
Collingwood (79) defeated Carlton (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 4) Carlton by 3
Geelong (97) defeated Adelaide (55) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 42) Geelong by 39
Gold Coast (121) defeated Hawthorn (54) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 67) Gold Coast by 7
Melbourne (56) lost to Fremantle (94) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 38) Melbourne by 22
Port Adelaide (66) defeated Essendon (50) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 16) Port Adelaide by 24
St Kilda (103) defeated North Melbourne (50) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 53) St Kilda by 42
Sydney (106) defeated Richmond (100) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 6) Sydney by 5
West Coast (60) lost to Western Bulldogs (161) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Western Bulldogs by 101) Western Bulldogs by 35

Round 12

Adelaide (88) defeated West Coast (57) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 31) Adelaide by 36
Fremantle (99) defeated Brisbane Lions (85) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 14) Fremantle by 7
Gold Coast (109) defeated North Melbourne (47) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 62) Gold Coast by 40
Hawthorn (68) lost to Collingwood (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 4) Collingwood by 9
Melbourne (61) lost to Sydney (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 12) Melbourne by 23
Western Bulldogs (70) lost to Geelong (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 13) Geelong by 2

Round 13

Brisbane Lions (78) defeated St Kilda (57) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 21) Brisbane Lions by 11
Collingwood (82) defeated Melbourne (56) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 26) Melbourne by 11
Essendon (54) lost to Carlton (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 26) Carlton by 11
Fremantle (95) defeated Hawthorn (82) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 13) Fremantle by 27
North Melbourne (53) lost to Greater Western Sydney (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 49) Greater Western Sydney by 28
Richmond (77) defeated Port Adelaide (65) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 12) Richmond by 16

Round 14

Gold Coast (116) defeated Adelaide (73) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 43) Gold Coast by 28
Greater Western Sydney (105) lost to Western Bulldogs (125) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 20) Western Bulldogs by 13
Port Adelaide (82) defeated Sydney (59) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 23) Sydney by 14
Richmond (81) defeated Carlton (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 15) Richmond by 6
St Kilda (72) lost to Essendon (107) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 35) St Kilda by 19
West Coast (63) lost to Geelong (81) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Geelong by 18) Geelong by 44

Round 15

Carlton (81) defeated Fremantle (50) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 31) Carlton by 1
Collingwood (88) defeated Greater Western Sydney (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 11) Collingwood by 12
Geelong (89) defeated Richmond (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 3) Geelong by 12
Melbourne (117) defeated Brisbane Lions (53) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 64) Melbourne by 21
North Melbourne (58) lost to Adelaide (115) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Adelaide by 57) Adelaide by 20
Port Adelaide (93) defeated Gold Coast (91) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 2) Port Adelaide by 10
Sydney (83) defeated St Kilda (32) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 51) Sydney by 13
West Coast (107) defeated Essendon (97) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 10) Essendon by 20
Western Bulldogs (125) defeated Hawthorn (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 42) Western Bulldogs by 17

Round 16

Adelaide (65) lost to Melbourne (94) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 29) Melbourne by 20
Brisbane Lions (108) defeated Western Bulldogs (67) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 41) Brisbane Lions by 16
Carlton (78) lost to St Kilda (93) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 15) Carlton by 5
Essendon (95) defeated Sydney (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 9) Sydney by 14
Fremantle (99) defeated Port Adelaide (91) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 8) Fremantle by 19
Geelong (144) defeated North Melbourne (32) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 112) Geelong by 62
Gold Coast (62) lost to Collingwood (67) at Carrara (QLD) [Collingwood by 5) Gold Coast by 1
Greater Western Sydney (72) defeated Hawthorn (50) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 22) Greater Western Sydney by 7
Richmond (128) defeated West Coast (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 35) Richmond by 50

Round 17

Brisbane Lions (90) lost to Essendon (100) at Gabba (QLD) [Essendon by 10) Brisbane Lions by 17
Collingwood (88) defeated North Melbourne (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 7) Collingwood by 53
Geelong (91) defeated Melbourne (63) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 28) Geelong by 3
Gold Coast (94) defeated Richmond (92) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 2) Gold Coast by 14
Hawthorn (86) defeated Adelaide (54) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 32) Hawthorn by 11
Port Adelaide (84) defeated Greater Western Sydney (29) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 55) Port Adelaide by 20
St Kilda (70) lost to Fremantle (111) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 41) Fremantle by 3
Sydney (120) defeated Western Bulldogs (67) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 53) Sydney by 5
West Coast (53) lost to Carlton (116) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Carlton by 63) Carlton by 29

Round 18

Adelaide (86) lost to Collingwood (91) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 5) Collingwood by 4
Carlton (55) lost to Geelong (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 30) Geelong by 12
Essendon (103) defeated Gold Coast (55) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 48) Gold Coast by 5
Fremantle (65) lost to Sydney (82) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 17) Fremantle by 5
Greater Western Sydney (59) lost to Brisbane Lions (99) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 40) Brisbane Lions by 16
Hawthorn (102) defeated West Coast (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 25) Hawthorn by 42
Melbourne (83) defeated Port Adelaide (69) at Traeger Park (NT) [Melbourne by 14) Melbourne by 8
North Melbourne (92) defeated Richmond (88) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 4) Richmond by 47
Western Bulldogs (84) defeated St Kilda (56) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 28) Western Bulldogs by 14

Round 19

Brisbane Lions (110) defeated Gold Coast (93) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 17) Brisbane Lions by 27
Carlton (90) defeated Greater Western Sydney (54) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 36) Carlton by 28
Collingwood (80) defeated Essendon (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 4) Collingwood by 12
North Melbourne (75) lost to Hawthorn (121) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Hawthorn by 46) Hawthorn by 30
Port Adelaide (94) lost to Geelong (106) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 12) Geelong by 12
Richmond (52) drew with Fremantle (52) at Docklands (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Richmond by 5
Sydney (118) defeated Adelaide (85) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 33) Sydney by 39
West Coast (62) lost to St Kilda (90) at Perth Stadium (WA) [St Kilda by 28) St Kilda by 18
Western Bulldogs (110) defeated Melbourne (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 10) Melbourne by 9

Round 20

Adelaide (84) defeated Carlton (55) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 29) Carlton by 13
Collingwood (88) defeated Port Adelaide (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 6) Collingwood by 16
Essendon (114) defeated North Melbourne (66) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 48) Essendon by 42
Fremantle (39) lost to Melbourne (85) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Melbourne by 46) Fremantle by 1
Geelong (94) defeated Western Bulldogs (66) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 28) Geelong by 25
Gold Coast (107) defeated West Coast (104) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 3) Gold Coast by 38
Richmond (104) defeated Brisbane Lions (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 7) Richmond by 6
St Kilda (75) defeated Hawthorn (63) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 12) St Kilda by 3
Sydney (112) defeated Greater Western Sydney (39) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 73) Sydney by 22

Round 21

Brisbane Lions (114) defeated Carlton (81) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 33) Brisbane Lions by 23
Geelong (110) defeated St Kilda (65) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 45) Geelong by 26
Greater Western Sydney (96) defeated Essendon (69) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 27) Essendon by 14
Hawthorn (70) defeated Gold Coast (63) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 7) Gold Coast by 7
Melbourne (89) lost to Collingwood (96) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 7) Melbourne by 22
North Melbourne (88) lost to Sydney (126) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 38) Sydney by 51
Port Adelaide (71) lost to Richmond (109) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Richmond by 38) Port Adelaide by 18
West Coast (86) lost to Adelaide (102) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Adelaide by 16) Adelaide by 7
Western Bulldogs (78) lost to Fremantle (95) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 17) Western Bulldogs by 16

Round 22

Adelaide (103) defeated North Melbourne (74) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 29) Adelaide by 45
Essendon (62) lost to Port Adelaide (146) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 84) Essendon by 2
Fremantle (71) defeated West Coast (47) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 24) Fremantle by 41
Gold Coast (59) lost to Geelong (119) at Carrara (QLD) [Geelong by 60) Geelong by 23
Melbourne (79) defeated Carlton (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 5) Melbourne by 22
Richmond (128) defeated Hawthorn (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 61) Richmond by 17
St Kilda (66) lost to Brisbane Lions (81) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 15) Brisbane Lions by 2
Sydney (77) defeated Collingwood (50) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 27) Sydney by 24
Western Bulldogs (62) defeated Greater Western Sydney (57) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 5) Western Bulldogs by 27

Round 23

Brisbane Lions (57) lost to Melbourne (115) at Gabba (QLD) [Melbourne by 58) Brisbane Lions by 1
Carlton (74) lost to Collingwood (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 1) Collingwood by 3
Essendon (75) lost to Richmond (141) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 66) Richmond by 15
Geelong (131) defeated West Coast (46) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 85) Geelong by 66
Greater Western Sydney (69) lost to Fremantle (89) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Fremantle by 20) Fremantle by 2
Hawthorn (64) lost to Western Bulldogs (87) at York Park (TAS) [Western Bulldogs by 23) Western Bulldogs by 17
North Melbourne (47) lost to Gold Coast (114) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 67) Gold Coast by 30
Port Adelaide (111) defeated Adelaide (55) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 56) Port Adelaide by 21
St Kilda (74) lost to Sydney (88) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 14) Sydney by 17

Elimination Final

Brisbane Lions (106) defeated Richmond (104) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 2) Brisbane Lions by 5
Fremantle (73) defeated Western Bulldogs (60) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 13) Fremantle by 15
Geelong (78) defeated Collingwood (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 6) Geelong by 24
Melbourne (69) lost to Sydney (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 22) Melbourne by 12

Semi-Final

Collingwood (79) defeated Fremantle (59) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 20) Collingwood by 6
Melbourne (79) lost to Brisbane Lions (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 13) Melbourne by 25

Preliminary Final

Geelong (120) defeated Brisbane Lions (49) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 71) Geelong by 15
Sydney (95) defeated Collingwood (94) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 1) Sydney by 20

Grand Final

Geelong (133) defeated Sydney (52) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 81) Geelong by 14

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SKILL

90%

LUCK

10%

Open Door

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Geelong	65.5	76.6	71.1
2	Melbourne	57.3	67.5	62.4
3	Sydney	59.4	62.5	60.9
4	Collingwood	55.6	61.7	58.7
5	Western Bulldogs	57.4	60.0	58.7
6	Richmond	60.8	56.0	58.4
7	Brisbane Lions	59.3	57.3	58.3
8	Port Adelaide	54.4	60.6	57.5
9	Fremantle	48.2	65.7	57.0
10	Carlton	54.8	58.7	56.8
11	St Kilda	49.4	60.6	55.0
12	Gold Coast	53.7	56.0	54.8
13	Greater Western Sydney	47.3	57.0	52.2
14	Essendon	52.1	52.3	52.2
15	Hawthorn	49.7	53.4	51.6
16	Adelaide	48.8	51.5	50.2
17	West Coast	41.2	45.9	43.6
18	North Melbourne	41.8	43.9	42.8