INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

• They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.

• They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.

• They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).

• They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

• Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.

• Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

• Scores, obviously.

• Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.

• Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.

• Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.

• Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.

• Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

• Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.

• Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

• Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.

• Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.

• Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.

• Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.

• The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

• Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.

• Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.

• Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

• Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.

• Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.

• Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Sat Sep 25 21:51:04 2021 (R27)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 2021, algorithm SQUIGGLE7 correctly tipped 137 games at an accuracy of 66.18%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1

Carlton (99) lost to St Kilda (125) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 26)
Collingwood (74) lost to Richmond (80) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 6)
North Melbourne (81) lost to Hawthorn (120) at Arden Street Oval (VIC) [Hawthorn by 39)
Geelong (79) defeated Essendon (72) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 7)
Greater Western Sydney (114) defeated Sydney (86) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 28)
Adelaide (45) lost to Port Adelaide (116) at Flinders University Stadium (SA) [Port Adelaide by 71)
West Coast (67) defeated Fremantle (57) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 10)
Western Bulldogs (106) defeated Melbourne (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 39)
Gold Coast (89) lost to Brisbane Lions (117) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 28)

Round 1

Adelaide (103) defeated Geelong (91) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 12) Geelong by 31
Brisbane Lions (94) lost to Sydney (125) at Gabba (QLD) [Sydney by 31) Brisbane Lions by 20
Collingwood (53) lost to Western Bulldogs (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 16) Western Bulldogs by 0
Essendon (91) lost to Hawthorn (92) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 1) Essendon by 5
Greater Western Sydney (78) lost to St Kilda (86) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [St Kilda by 8) St Kilda by 6
Melbourne (80) defeated Fremantle (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 22) Melbourne by 4
North Melbourne (65) lost to Port Adelaide (117) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 52) Port Adelaide by 33
Richmond (105) defeated Carlton (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 25) Richmond by 21
West Coast (83) defeated Gold Coast (58) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 25) West Coast by 10

Round 2

Carlton (85) lost to Collingwood (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 21) Carlton by 1
Fremantle (87) defeated Greater Western Sydney (56) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 31) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Geelong (81) defeated Brisbane Lions (80) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 1) Geelong by 11
Gold Coast (98) defeated North Melbourne (39) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 59) Gold Coast by 18
Hawthorn (49) lost to Richmond (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 29) Richmond by 27
Port Adelaide (119) defeated Essendon (65) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 54) Port Adelaide by 21
St Kilda (73) lost to Melbourne (91) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 18) St Kilda by 3
Sydney (121) defeated Adelaide (88) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 33) Sydney by 12
Western Bulldogs (100) defeated West Coast (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 7) Western Bulldogs by 11

Round 3

Adelaide (95) defeated Gold Coast (85) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 10) Adelaide by 2
Carlton (109) defeated Fremantle (64) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 45) Carlton by 5
Collingwood (72) lost to Brisbane Lions (73) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 1) Collingwood by 1
Essendon (143) defeated St Kilda (68) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 75) St Kilda by 12
Geelong (69) defeated Hawthorn (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 5) Geelong by 16
Greater Western Sydney (68) lost to Melbourne (102) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Melbourne by 34) Melbourne by 17
North Melbourne (39) lost to Western Bulldogs (167) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 128) Western Bulldogs by 39
Richmond (72) lost to Sydney (117) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 45) Richmond by 22
West Coast (108) defeated Port Adelaide (71) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 37) West Coast by 0

Round 4

Collingwood (60) lost to Greater Western Sydney (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 30) Collingwood by 17
Fremantle (96) defeated Hawthorn (81) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 15) Fremantle by 6
Gold Coast (59) lost to Carlton (70) at Carrara (QLD) [Carlton by 11) Carlton by 0
Melbourne (85) defeated Geelong (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 25) Melbourne by 10
North Melbourne (68) lost to Adelaide (109) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 41) Adelaide by 27
Port Adelaide (79) defeated Richmond (77) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 2) Port Adelaide by 4
St Kilda (102) defeated West Coast (82) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 20) West Coast by 11
Sydney (83) defeated Essendon (80) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 3) Sydney by 15
Western Bulldogs (73) defeated Brisbane Lions (54) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 19) Western Bulldogs by 12

Round 5

Adelaide (72) lost to Fremantle (84) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Fremantle by 12) Adelaide by 6
Brisbane Lions (102) defeated Essendon (45) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 57) Brisbane Lions by 11
Carlton (68) lost to Port Adelaide (96) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 28) Carlton by 8
Geelong (77) defeated North Melbourne (47) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 30) Geelong by 48
Hawthorn (54) lost to Melbourne (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 50) Melbourne by 20
St Kilda (48) lost to Richmond (134) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 86) Richmond by 19
Sydney (69) lost to Greater Western Sydney (71) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 2) Sydney by 13
West Coast (103) defeated Collingwood (76) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 27) West Coast by 15
Western Bulldogs (118) defeated Gold Coast (56) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 62) Western Bulldogs by 28

Round 6

Carlton (85) lost to Brisbane Lions (103) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 18) Brisbane Lions by 0
Collingwood (85) lost to Essendon (109) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 24) Essendon by 1
Fremantle (99) defeated North Melbourne (48) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 51) Fremantle by 36
Geelong (136) defeated West Coast (39) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 97) Geelong by 7
Gold Coast (100) defeated Sydney (60) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 40) Sydney by 12
Greater Western Sydney (65) lost to Western Bulldogs (104) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 39) Western Bulldogs by 25
Hawthorn (102) defeated Adelaide (99) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 3) Adelaide by 1
Melbourne (82) defeated Richmond (48) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 34) Melbourne by 1
Port Adelaide (93) defeated St Kilda (39) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 54) Port Adelaide by 19

Round 7

Adelaide (39) lost to Greater Western Sydney (106) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 67) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Brisbane Lions (93) defeated Port Adelaide (44) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 49) Port Adelaide by 4
Collingwood (55) lost to Gold Coast (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Gold Coast by 24) Collingwood by 5
Essendon (107) lost to Carlton (123) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 16) Carlton by 0
North Melbourne (73) lost to Melbourne (103) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Melbourne by 30) Melbourne by 51
Richmond (77) defeated Western Bulldogs (55) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 22) Western Bulldogs by 8
St Kilda (128) defeated Hawthorn (59) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 69) St Kilda by 9
Sydney (90) defeated Geelong (88) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 2) Geelong by 6
West Coast (132) defeated Fremantle (73) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 59) West Coast by 1

Round 8

Brisbane Lions (95) defeated Fremantle (71) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 24) Brisbane Lions by 24
Gold Coast (54) lost to St Kilda (63) at Carrara (QLD) [St Kilda by 9) Gold Coast by 10
Greater Western Sydney (107) defeated Essendon (105) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 2) Greater Western Sydney by 7
Hawthorn (60) lost to West Coast (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [West Coast by 38) West Coast by 13
Melbourne (67) defeated Sydney (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 9) Melbourne by 22
North Melbourne (76) lost to Collingwood (94) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 18) Collingwood by 18
Port Adelaide (87) defeated Adelaide (38) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 49) Port Adelaide by 24
Richmond (63) lost to Geelong (126) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 63) Richmond by 16
Western Bulldogs (107) defeated Carlton (91) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 16) Western Bulldogs by 18

Round 9

Essendon (68) defeated Fremantle (61) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 7) Essendon by 5
Gold Coast (51) lost to Brisbane Lions (124) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 73) Brisbane Lions by 14
Hawthorn (80) lost to North Melbourne (87) at York Park (TAS) [North Melbourne by 7) Hawthorn by 18
Melbourne (94) defeated Carlton (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 26) Melbourne by 12
Port Adelaide (77) lost to Western Bulldogs (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Western Bulldogs by 19) Port Adelaide by 0
Richmond (87) defeated Greater Western Sydney (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 4) Richmond by 19
St Kilda (47) lost to Geelong (68) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 21) Geelong by 14
Sydney (72) defeated Collingwood (42) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 30) Sydney by 19
West Coast (106) defeated Adelaide (76) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 30) West Coast by 44

Round 10

Adelaide (96) defeated Melbourne (95) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 1) Melbourne by 17
Brisbane Lions (102) defeated Richmond (74) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 28) Brisbane Lions by 4
Carlton (86) defeated Hawthorn (63) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 23) Carlton by 30
Collingwood (58) lost to Port Adelaide (59) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 1) Port Adelaide by 4
Essendon (141) defeated North Melbourne (69) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 72) Essendon by 25
Fremantle (86) defeated Sydney (84) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 2) Sydney by 1
Geelong (91) defeated Gold Coast (57) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 34) Geelong by 23
Greater Western Sydney (93) defeated West Coast (77) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 16) Greater Western Sydney by 8
Western Bulldogs (144) defeated St Kilda (33) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 111) Western Bulldogs by 24

Round 11

Brisbane Lions (129) defeated Greater Western Sydney (65) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 64) Brisbane Lions by 19
Collingwood (51) lost to Geelong (61) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 10) Geelong by 18
Gold Coast (113) defeated Hawthorn (76) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Gold Coast by 37) Gold Coast by 15
Port Adelaide (115) defeated Fremantle (69) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 46) Port Adelaide by 16
Richmond (111) defeated Adelaide (83) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Richmond by 28) Richmond by 29
St Kilda (88) defeated North Melbourne (68) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 20) St Kilda by 23
Sydney (100) defeated Carlton (78) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 22) Sydney by 7
West Coast (71) lost to Essendon (87) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Essendon by 16) West Coast by 19
Western Bulldogs (59) lost to Melbourne (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 28) Western Bulldogs by 15

Round 12

Adelaide (73) lost to Collingwood (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 5) Adelaide by 10
Carlton (73) lost to West Coast (95) at S.C.G. (NSW) [West Coast by 22) Carlton by 13
Essendon (84) lost to Richmond (123) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Richmond by 39) Richmond by 9
Fremantle (65) lost to Western Bulldogs (93) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Western Bulldogs by 28) Western Bulldogs by 20
Melbourne (97) defeated Brisbane Lions (75) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Melbourne by 22) Brisbane Lions by 9
Sydney (92) defeated St Kilda (83) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 9) Sydney by 14

Round 13

Fremantle (76) defeated Gold Coast (49) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 27) Fremantle by 4
Melbourne (63) lost to Collingwood (80) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Collingwood by 17) Melbourne by 26
North Melbourne (94) drew with Greater Western Sydney (94) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [DRAW by 0) Greater Western Sydney by 36
Port Adelaide (91) lost to Geelong (112) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 21) Geelong by 5
St Kilda (60) lost to Adelaide (66) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Adelaide by 6) St Kilda by 9
Sydney (51) lost to Hawthorn (89) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Hawthorn by 38) Sydney by 22
West Coast (85) defeated Richmond (81) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 4) West Coast by 2

Round 14

Geelong (83) defeated Western Bulldogs (78) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 5) Western Bulldogs by 8
Gold Coast (31) lost to Port Adelaide (81) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 50) Port Adelaide by 9
Greater Western Sydney (102) defeated Carlton (66) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 36) Greater Western Sydney by 11
Hawthorn (73) lost to Essendon (86) at York Park (TAS) [Essendon by 13) Essendon by 15
North Melbourne (45) lost to Brisbane Lions (68) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Brisbane Lions by 23) Brisbane Lions by 44

Round 15

Brisbane Lions (94) defeated Geelong (50) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 44) Brisbane Lions by 7
Carlton (83) defeated Adelaide (73) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 10) Carlton by 23
Collingwood (79) lost to Fremantle (91) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 12) Collingwood by 8
Essendon (57) lost to Melbourne (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 11) Melbourne by 21
Greater Western Sydney (72) lost to Hawthorn (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 18) Greater Western Sydney by 12
North Melbourne (72) defeated Gold Coast (63) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 9) Gold Coast by 16
Port Adelaide (81) defeated Sydney (71) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 10) Port Adelaide by 22
Richmond (22) lost to St Kilda (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 40) Richmond by 16
West Coast (43) lost to Western Bulldogs (98) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Western Bulldogs by 55) Western Bulldogs by 11

Round 16

Adelaide (59) lost to Brisbane Lions (111) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 52) Brisbane Lions by 24
Collingwood (61) lost to St Kilda (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 9) Collingwood by 1
Fremantle (64) lost to Carlton (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 16) Fremantle by 7
Geelong (98) defeated Essendon (57) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 41) Geelong by 19
Gold Coast (77) defeated Richmond (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 10) Richmond by 15
Hawthorn (53) lost to Port Adelaide (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 34) Port Adelaide by 18
Melbourne (55) lost to Greater Western Sydney (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 9) Melbourne by 27
Sydney (118) defeated West Coast (26) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Sydney by 92) Sydney by 14
Western Bulldogs (108) defeated North Melbourne (79) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 29) Western Bulldogs by 61

Round 17

Brisbane Lions (63) lost to St Kilda (95) at Carrara (QLD) [St Kilda by 32) Brisbane Lions by 25
Carlton (44) lost to Geelong (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 26) Geelong by 13
Essendon (84) defeated Adelaide (21) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 63) Essendon by 22
Greater Western Sydney (64) lost to Gold Coast (65) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Gold Coast by 1) Greater Western Sydney by 1
Hawthorn (46) lost to Fremantle (108) at York Park (TAS) [Fremantle by 62) Fremantle by 12
Port Adelaide (55) lost to Melbourne (86) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 31) Port Adelaide by 12
Richmond (71) lost to Collingwood (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 16) Richmond by 3
West Coast (60) lost to North Melbourne (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [North Melbourne by 10) West Coast by 30
Western Bulldogs (60) lost to Sydney (79) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 19) Western Bulldogs by 32

Round 18

Adelaide (56) lost to West Coast (98) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [West Coast by 42) Adelaide by 14
Collingwood (62) lost to Carlton (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 29) Collingwood by 5
Fremantle (31) lost to Geelong (100) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Geelong by 69) Geelong by 5
Gold Coast (79) lost to Western Bulldogs (90) at Carrara (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 11) Western Bulldogs by 32
Greater Western Sydney (72) lost to Sydney (98) at Carrara (QLD) [Sydney by 26) Sydney by 15
Melbourne (79) drew with Hawthorn (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Melbourne by 33
North Melbourne (74) lost to Essendon (92) at Carrara (QLD) [Essendon by 18) Essendon by 22
Richmond (106) defeated Brisbane Lions (86) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 20) Brisbane Lions by 12
St Kilda (61) lost to Port Adelaide (74) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 13) St Kilda by 5

Round 19

Adelaide (102) defeated Hawthorn (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 19) Hawthorn by 12
Brisbane Lions (120) defeated Gold Coast (71) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 49) Brisbane Lions by 26
Carlton (77) lost to North Melbourne (116) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 39) Carlton by 18
Essendon (53) lost to Greater Western Sydney (66) at Carrara (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 13) Essendon by 9
Geelong (95) defeated Richmond (57) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 38) Geelong by 19
Melbourne (65) lost to Western Bulldogs (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 20) Western Bulldogs by 5
Port Adelaide (97) defeated Collingwood (69) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 28) Port Adelaide by 26
Sydney (98) defeated Fremantle (58) at Carrara (QLD) [Sydney by 40) Sydney by 19
West Coast (94) defeated St Kilda (86) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 8) West Coast by 8

Round 20

Collingwood (90) defeated West Coast (45) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 45) Collingwood by 9
Essendon (102) lost to Sydney (109) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 7) Sydney by 9
Fremantle (55) defeated Richmond (51) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 4) Richmond by 5
Gold Coast (30) lost to Melbourne (128) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 98) Melbourne by 22
Greater Western Sydney (73) lost to Port Adelaide (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 27) Port Adelaide by 7
Hawthorn (92) defeated Brisbane Lions (80) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 12) Brisbane Lions by 30
North Melbourne (42) lost to Geelong (62) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Geelong by 20) Geelong by 32
St Kilda (81) lost to Carlton (112) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 31) St Kilda by 14
Western Bulldogs (105) defeated Adelaide (56) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 49) Western Bulldogs by 53

Round 21

Adelaide (51) lost to Port Adelaide (55) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 4) Port Adelaide by 31
Carlton (57) lost to Gold Coast (76) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 19) Carlton by 12
Fremantle (54) lost to Brisbane Lions (118) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Brisbane Lions by 64) Brisbane Lions by 3
Geelong (65) lost to Greater Western Sydney (84) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Greater Western Sydney by 19) Geelong by 32
Hawthorn (97) defeated Collingwood (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 19) Collingwood by 6
Richmond (89) defeated North Melbourne (56) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 33) Richmond by 15
St Kilda (93) defeated Sydney (64) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 29) Sydney by 12
West Coast (63) lost to Melbourne (72) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Melbourne by 9) Melbourne by 17
Western Bulldogs (84) lost to Essendon (97) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 13) Western Bulldogs by 29

Round 22

Brisbane Lions (142) defeated Collingwood (57) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 85) Brisbane Lions by 34
Fremantle (79) defeated West Coast (64) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 15) West Coast by 6
Geelong (85) defeated St Kilda (71) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 14) Geelong by 16
Gold Coast (30) lost to Essendon (98) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Essendon by 68) Essendon by 11
Greater Western Sydney (106) defeated Richmond (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 39) Greater Western Sydney by 4
Hawthorn (64) defeated Western Bulldogs (37) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 27) Western Bulldogs by 38
Melbourne (104) defeated Adelaide (63) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 41) Melbourne by 45
North Melbourne (77) lost to Sydney (91) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 14) Sydney by 22
Port Adelaide (140) defeated Carlton (45) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 95) Port Adelaide by 28

Round 23

Adelaide (98) defeated North Melbourne (54) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 44) Adelaide by 10
Brisbane Lions (125) defeated West Coast (87) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 38) Brisbane Lions by 43
Carlton (75) lost to Greater Western Sydney (89) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 14) Greater Western Sydney by 8
Essendon (102) defeated Collingwood (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 38) Essendon by 19
Geelong (77) lost to Melbourne (81) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Melbourne by 4) Melbourne by 2
Richmond (83) drew with Hawthorn (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Hawthorn by 4
St Kilda (107) defeated Fremantle (49) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [St Kilda by 58) St Kilda by 9
Sydney (136) defeated Gold Coast (49) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 87) Sydney by 22
Western Bulldogs (64) lost to Port Adelaide (66) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 2) Western Bulldogs by 9

Qualifying Final

Melbourne (93) defeated Brisbane Lions (60) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 33) Melbourne by 2
Port Adelaide (86) defeated Geelong (43) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 43) Port Adelaide by 0
Sydney (73) lost to Greater Western Sydney (74) at York Park (TAS) [Greater Western Sydney by 1) Sydney by 3
Western Bulldogs (85) defeated Essendon (36) at York Park (TAS) [Western Bulldogs by 49) Western Bulldogs by 6

Semi-Final

Brisbane Lions (78) lost to Western Bulldogs (79) at Gabba (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 1) Brisbane Lions by 1
Geelong (103) defeated Greater Western Sydney (68) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Geelong by 35) Geelong by 15

Preliminary Final

Melbourne (125) defeated Geelong (42) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Melbourne by 83) Melbourne by 13
Port Adelaide (45) lost to Western Bulldogs (116) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Western Bulldogs by 71) Port Adelaide by 3

Grand Final

Melbourne (140) defeated Western Bulldogs (66) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Melbourne by 74) Melbourne by 6

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SKILL

90%

LUCK

10%

Open Door

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Melbourne	66.6	78.8	72.7
2	Western Bulldogs	60.1	69.6	64.9
3	Brisbane Lions	62.0	61.2	61.6
4	Port Adelaide	54.6	66.1	60.4
5	Geelong	53.8	65.5	59.6
6	Sydney	57.2	61.8	59.5
7	Essendon	54.2	63.1	58.7
8	St Kilda	51.4	62.2	56.8
9	Richmond	51.8	59.6	55.7
10	Greater Western Sydney	52.8	58.6	55.7
11	Hawthorn	48.6	59.2	53.9
12	Collingwood	46.8	58.1	52.4
13	Fremantle	47.2	56.5	51.9
14	Carlton	52.1	51.4	51.8
15	West Coast	48.6	54.5	51.5
16	Gold Coast	45.0	56.5	50.8
17	Adelaide	48.4	53.0	50.7
18	North Melbourne	44.9	50.6	47.8