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Squiggle

INFO

What Squiggles areHow to play through a seasonPredictionFAQThe ModelFlagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move up; when they score less, they move move down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

2017201620152014201320122011
Squiggle v161.4%69.1%70.9%72.0%72.5%77.8%77.6%
Squiggle 2.0*64.7%74.9%73.8%72.0%73.0%73.4%77.0%
Squiggle 4*65.7%73.4%73.8%73.4%74.4%73.9%77.6%

* Squiggle 2.0 and Squiggle 4 numbers before 2018 are "retro-dictions"—they were made after the result. This shows how well the model fits historical data, rather than how reliable its predictions have been in practice.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Tue Mar 27 11:25:27 2018 (R27)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

Minor PremierTop 4Top 8Bottom 4Spoon

MODE LADDER

LikelihoodIf not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 2016, algorithm SQUIGGLE4 correctly tipped 150 games at an accuracy of 72.46%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 1


Richmond (92) defeated Carlton (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 9) Richmond by 18
Melbourne (80) defeated Greater Western Sydney (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 2) Greater Western Sydney by 7
Gold Coast (121) defeated Essendon (60) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 61) Gold Coast by 13
North Melbourne (107) defeated Adelaide (97) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 10) North Melbourne by 20
Sydney (133) defeated Collingwood (53) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 80) Sydney by 18
Western Bulldogs (103) defeated Fremantle (38) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 65) Western Bulldogs by 21
Port Adelaide (133) defeated St Kilda (100) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 33) Port Adelaide by 35
West Coast (166) defeated Brisbane Lions (102) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 64) West Coast by 66
Geelong (116) defeated Hawthorn (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 30) Hawthorn by 4

Round 2


Collingwood (87) defeated Richmond (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 1) Richmond by 17
Adelaide (144) defeated Port Adelaide (86) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 58) Adelaide by 16
Essendon (80) defeated Melbourne (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 13) Melbourne by 22
Brisbane Lions (83) lost to North Melbourne (117) at Gabba (QLD) [North Melbourne by 34) North Melbourne by 18
St Kilda (36) lost to Western Bulldogs (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 57) Western Bulldogs by 31
Fremantle (100) lost to Gold Coast (126) at Subiaco (WA) [Gold Coast by 26) Fremantle by 18
Greater Western Sydney (89) defeated Geelong (76) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 13) Geelong by 3
Hawthorn (99) defeated West Coast (53) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 46) Hawthorn by 6
Carlton (71) lost to Sydney (131) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 60) Sydney by 51

Round 3


Port Adelaide (112) defeated Essendon (51) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 61) Port Adelaide by 39
St Kilda (119) defeated Collingwood (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 29) Collingwood by 9
Richmond (92) lost to Adelaide (128) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 36) Adelaide by 1
Sydney (93) defeated Greater Western Sydney (68) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 25) Sydney by 34
Gold Coast (95) defeated Carlton (41) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 54) Gold Coast by 36
West Coast (92) defeated Fremantle (59) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 33) West Coast by 30
North Melbourne (136) defeated Melbourne (131) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 5) North Melbourne by 58
Western Bulldogs (90) lost to Hawthorn (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 3) Hawthorn by 2
Geelong (125) defeated Brisbane Lions (56) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 69) Geelong by 35

Round 4


West Coast (125) defeated Richmond (57) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 68) West Coast by 31
Essendon (42) lost to Geelong (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 30) Geelong by 35
Hawthorn (87) defeated St Kilda (84) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 3) Hawthorn by 53
Brisbane Lions (107) defeated Gold Coast (94) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 13) Gold Coast by 9
Carlton (49) lost to Western Bulldogs (85) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 36) Western Bulldogs by 57
Adelaide (113) defeated Sydney (103) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 10) Sydney by 2
Greater Western Sydney (151) defeated Port Adelaide (65) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 86) Port Adelaide by 6
Collingwood (67) lost to Melbourne (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 35) Collingwood by 12
North Melbourne (132) defeated Fremantle (101) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 31) North Melbourne by 32

Round 5


Hawthorn (112) defeated Adelaide (109) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 3) Hawthorn by 18
Sydney (88) defeated West Coast (49) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 39) Sydney by 11
Gold Coast (81) lost to North Melbourne (119) at Carrara (QLD) [North Melbourne by 38) North Melbourne by 10
Western Bulldogs (120) defeated Brisbane Lions (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 53) Western Bulldogs by 55
Port Adelaide (59) lost to Geelong (107) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 48) Geelong by 4
St Kilda (79) lost to Greater Western Sydney (126) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 47) Greater Western Sydney by 2
Fremantle (68) lost to Carlton (72) at Subiaco (WA) [Carlton by 4) Fremantle by 21
Melbourne (129) defeated Richmond (96) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 33) Richmond by 10
Collingwood (142) defeated Essendon (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 69) Collingwood by 7

Round 6


North Melbourne (61) defeated Western Bulldogs (45) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 16) Western Bulldogs by 25
Melbourne (96) lost to St Kilda (135) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 39) St Kilda by 8
Adelaide (97) defeated Fremantle (64) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 33) Adelaide by 54
Greater Western Sydney (158) defeated Hawthorn (83) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 75) Greater Western Sydney by 4
Geelong (168) defeated Gold Coast (48) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 120) Geelong by 44
Richmond (59) lost to Port Adelaide (94) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 35) Richmond by 15
Brisbane Lions (94) lost to Sydney (97) at Gabba (QLD) [Sydney by 3) Sydney by 37
Carlton (72) defeated Essendon (57) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 15) Carlton by 17
West Coast (124) defeated Collingwood (62) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 62) West Coast by 53

Round 7


Richmond (90) lost to Hawthorn (136) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 46) Hawthorn by 31
Collingwood (84) lost to Carlton (99) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 15) Collingwood by 2
Geelong (123) defeated West Coast (79) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 44) Geelong by 17
Sydney (135) defeated Essendon (54) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 81) Sydney by 71
Gold Coast (87) lost to Melbourne (160) at Carrara (QLD) [Melbourne by 73) Gold Coast by 15
Western Bulldogs (123) defeated Adelaide (108) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 15) Western Bulldogs by 18
Fremantle (77) lost to Greater Western Sydney (95) at Subiaco (WA) [Greater Western Sydney by 18) Greater Western Sydney by 16
St Kilda (75) lost to North Melbourne (82) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 7) North Melbourne by 12
Port Adelaide (136) defeated Brisbane Lions (59) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 77) Port Adelaide by 29

Round 8


Adelaide (72) lost to Geelong (98) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 26) Geelong by 7
Essendon (60) lost to North Melbourne (74) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 14) North Melbourne by 44
Hawthorn (116) defeated Fremantle (75) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 41) Hawthorn by 41
Greater Western Sydney (149) defeated Gold Coast (58) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 91) Greater Western Sydney by 55
Brisbane Lions (65) lost to Collingwood (143) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 78) Brisbane Lions by 14
Richmond (101) defeated Sydney (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 1) Sydney by 22
Carlton (93) defeated Port Adelaide (91) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 2) Port Adelaide by 12
Melbourne (82) lost to Western Bulldogs (114) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 32) Western Bulldogs by 29
West Coast (132) defeated St Kilda (29) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 103) West Coast by 37

Round 9


Hawthorn (55) lost to Sydney (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 14) Sydney by 2
Collingwood (104) defeated Geelong (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 24) Geelong by 31
Gold Coast (74) lost to Adelaide (149) at Carrara (QLD) [Adelaide by 75) Adelaide by 46
Port Adelaide (86) lost to West Coast (94) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [West Coast by 8) West Coast by 10
North Melbourne (113) defeated Carlton (46) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 67) North Melbourne by 32
Fremantle (45) lost to Richmond (83) at Subiaco (WA) [Richmond by 38) Fremantle by 4
Melbourne (131) defeated Brisbane Lions (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 63) Melbourne by 33
Greater Western Sydney (98) defeated Western Bulldogs (73) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 25) Greater Western Sydney by 12
St Kilda (109) defeated Essendon (63) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 46) St Kilda by 18

Round 10


Sydney (91) defeated North Melbourne (65) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 26) Sydney by 21
Brisbane Lions (87) lost to Hawthorn (135) at Gabba (QLD) [Hawthorn by 48) Hawthorn by 33
Melbourne (76) lost to Port Adelaide (121) at Traeger Park (NT) [Port Adelaide by 45) Melbourne by 5
St Kilda (101) defeated Fremantle (67) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 34) St Kilda by 13
Essendon (67) lost to Richmond (105) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 38) Richmond by 25
Adelaide (107) defeated Greater Western Sydney (85) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 22) Adelaide by 3
Carlton (104) defeated Geelong (85) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 19) Geelong by 44
Collingwood (53) lost to Western Bulldogs (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 21) Western Bulldogs by 23
West Coast (132) defeated Gold Coast (55) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 77) West Coast by 62

Round 11


North Melbourne (124) defeated Richmond (54) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 70) North Melbourne by 15
Hawthorn (82) defeated Melbourne (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 18) Hawthorn by 28
Carlton (102) defeated Brisbane Lions (64) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 38) Carlton by 11
Geelong (98) defeated Greater Western Sydney (88) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 10) Geelong by 17
Gold Coast (41) lost to Sydney (79) at Carrara (QLD) [Sydney by 38) Sydney by 39
Fremantle (126) defeated Essendon (47) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 79) Fremantle by 29
Collingwood (58) lost to Port Adelaide (125) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 67) Collingwood by 6
Western Bulldogs (83) defeated West Coast (75) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 8) Western Bulldogs by 8
Adelaide (133) defeated St Kilda (45) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 88) Adelaide by 36

Round 12


Essendon (43) lost to Hawthorn (151) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 108) Hawthorn by 44
Port Adelaide (97) lost to Western Bulldogs (100) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Western Bulldogs by 3) Western Bulldogs by 6
Brisbane Lions (64) lost to Fremantle (147) at Gabba (QLD) [Fremantle by 83) Brisbane Lions by 9
Geelong (105) defeated North Melbourne (74) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 31) Geelong by 2
West Coast (76) lost to Adelaide (105) at Subiaco (WA) [Adelaide by 29) West Coast by 12
St Kilda (110) defeated Carlton (78) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 32) St Kilda by 0
Richmond (114) defeated Gold Coast (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 17) Richmond by 29
Greater Western Sydney (105) defeated Sydney (63) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 42) Sydney by 6
Melbourne (104) defeated Collingwood (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 46) Collingwood by 6

Round 13


North Melbourne (84) lost to Hawthorn (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 9) Hawthorn by 27
Brisbane Lions (82) lost to West Coast (131) at Gabba (QLD) [West Coast by 49) West Coast by 39
Fremantle (86) defeated Port Adelaide (69) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 17) Fremantle by 0
Western Bulldogs (43) lost to Geelong (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 57) Geelong by 3
Sydney (86) defeated Melbourne (31) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 55) Sydney by 33
Essendon (90) lost to Greater Western Sydney (117) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 27) Greater Western Sydney by 48

Round 14


Adelaide (100) defeated North Melbourne (67) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 33) Adelaide by 21
Collingwood (85) defeated Fremantle (37) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 48) Collingwood by 14
Richmond (117) defeated Brisbane Lions (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 42) Richmond by 37
Greater Western Sydney (127) defeated Carlton (65) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 62) Greater Western Sydney by 60
St Kilda (93) defeated Geelong (90) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 3) Geelong by 32
Hawthorn (86) defeated Gold Coast (60) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 26) Hawthorn by 63

Round 15


West Coast (130) defeated Essendon (52) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 78) West Coast by 62
Port Adelaide (94) defeated Richmond (56) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 38) Port Adelaide by 20
Gold Coast (108) defeated St Kilda (68) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 40) St Kilda by 9
Sydney (79) lost to Western Bulldogs (83) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 4) Sydney by 13
Carlton (45) lost to Collingwood (57) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 12) Collingwood by 19
Melbourne (98) lost to Adelaide (120) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 22) Adelaide by 30

Round 16


Port Adelaide (79) lost to Hawthorn (101) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Hawthorn by 22) Hawthorn by 3
Geelong (60) lost to Sydney (98) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Sydney by 38) Geelong by 17
Greater Western Sydney (93) lost to Collingwood (125) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Collingwood by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 29
Gold Coast (139) defeated Brisbane Lions (113) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 26) Gold Coast by 4
Western Bulldogs (85) defeated Richmond (75) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 10) Western Bulldogs by 40
Melbourne (87) defeated Fremantle (55) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Melbourne by 32) Melbourne by 11
Carlton (47) lost to Adelaide (107) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 60) Adelaide by 39
West Coast (104) defeated North Melbourne (72) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 32) West Coast by 28
Essendon (98) lost to St Kilda (109) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 11) St Kilda by 35

Round 17


Sydney (70) lost to Hawthorn (75) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Hawthorn by 5) Sydney by 31
Fremantle (61) lost to Geelong (78) at Subiaco (WA) [Geelong by 17) Geelong by 17
Richmond (102) defeated Essendon (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 19) Richmond by 27
North Melbourne (77) lost to Port Adelaide (105) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 28) North Melbourne by 21
Western Bulldogs (107) defeated Gold Coast (59) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 48) Western Bulldogs by 35
Adelaide (97) defeated Collingwood (69) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 28) Adelaide by 41
Carlton (75) lost to West Coast (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [West Coast by 7) West Coast by 29
St Kilda (110) defeated Melbourne (74) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 36) Melbourne by 5
Brisbane Lions (67) lost to Greater Western Sydney (146) at Gabba (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 79) Greater Western Sydney by 40

Round 18


Collingwood (84) lost to North Melbourne (124) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 40) Collingwood by 2
Sydney (74) defeated Carlton (68) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 6) Sydney by 41
Gold Coast (105) defeated Fremantle (81) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 24) Gold Coast by 5
West Coast (66) defeated Melbourne (60) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 6) West Coast by 36
Geelong (85) defeated Adelaide (55) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 30) Geelong by 2
Western Bulldogs (60) lost to St Kilda (75) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 15) Western Bulldogs by 22
Essendon (91) lost to Brisbane Lions (128) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 37) Essendon by 9
Hawthorn (114) defeated Richmond (44) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 70) Hawthorn by 33
Port Adelaide (60) lost to Greater Western Sydney (79) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 19) Greater Western Sydney by 1

Round 19


Geelong (103) defeated Western Bulldogs (78) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 25) Geelong by 23
Greater Western Sydney (111) defeated Richmond (23) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 88) Greater Western Sydney by 45
Hawthorn (74) defeated Carlton (55) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 19) Hawthorn by 39
Collingwood (91) defeated West Coast (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 19) West Coast by 4
North Melbourne (85) defeated St Kilda (62) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 23) North Melbourne by 16
Brisbane Lions (79) lost to Port Adelaide (173) at Gabba (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 94) Port Adelaide by 29
Melbourne (66) defeated Gold Coast (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 2) Melbourne by 32
Fremantle (47) lost to Sydney (137) at Subiaco (WA) [Sydney by 90) Sydney by 27
Adelaide (143) defeated Essendon (61) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 82) Adelaide by 78

Round 20


Richmond (92) defeated Collingwood (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 15) Collingwood by 18
Sydney (100) defeated Port Adelaide (33) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 67) Sydney by 32
Melbourne (110) defeated Hawthorn (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 29) Hawthorn by 30
Gold Coast (84) lost to Greater Western Sydney (92) at Carrara (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 8) Greater Western Sydney by 41
Western Bulldogs (61) defeated North Melbourne (47) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 14) Western Bulldogs by 7
Adelaide (177) defeated Brisbane Lions (39) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 138) Adelaide by 83
Carlton (51) lost to St Kilda (122) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 71) St Kilda by 11
Geelong (100) defeated Essendon (34) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 66) Geelong by 54
Fremantle (64) lost to West Coast (110) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 46) West Coast by 32

Round 21


Western Bulldogs (95) defeated Collingwood (92) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 3) Western Bulldogs by 16
Brisbane Lions (99) defeated Carlton (95) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 4) Carlton by 6
Hawthorn (96) defeated North Melbourne (57) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 39) Hawthorn by 21
Greater Western Sydney (96) lost to West Coast (97) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [West Coast by 1) Greater Western Sydney by 29
St Kilda (76) lost to Sydney (146) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 70) Sydney by 23
Port Adelaide (54) lost to Melbourne (94) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 40) Port Adelaide by 17
Essendon (75) defeated Gold Coast (69) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 6) Gold Coast by 1
Richmond (78) lost to Geelong (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 4) Geelong by 26
Fremantle (70) lost to Adelaide (142) at Subiaco (WA) [Adelaide by 72) Adelaide by 42

Round 22


West Coast (92) defeated Hawthorn (67) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 25) West Coast by 8
North Melbourne (76) lost to Sydney (85) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Sydney by 9) Sydney by 10
Richmond (46) lost to St Kilda (55) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 9) St Kilda by 12
Greater Western Sydney (129) defeated Fremantle (37) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 92) Greater Western Sydney by 59
Collingwood (118) defeated Gold Coast (47) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 71) Collingwood by 30
Port Adelaide (94) lost to Adelaide (109) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 15) Adelaide by 43
Carlton (78) defeated Melbourne (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 20) Melbourne by 12
Brisbane Lions (69) lost to Geelong (129) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 60) Geelong by 51
Essendon (53) lost to Western Bulldogs (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 40) Western Bulldogs by 37

Round 23


Adelaide (71) lost to West Coast (100) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [West Coast by 29) Adelaide by 31
Geelong (155) defeated Melbourne (44) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 111) Geelong by 32
Essendon (103) defeated Carlton (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 24) Carlton by 10
Sydney (164) defeated Richmond (51) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 113) Sydney by 54
North Melbourne (63) lost to Greater Western Sydney (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 37) Greater Western Sydney by 5
Gold Coast (66) lost to Port Adelaide (89) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 23) Port Adelaide by 12
St Kilda (161) defeated Brisbane Lions (103) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 58) St Kilda by 51
Hawthorn (112) defeated Collingwood (111) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 1) Hawthorn by 5
Fremantle (69) defeated Western Bulldogs (49) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 20) Western Bulldogs by 20

Elimination Final


West Coast (52) lost to Western Bulldogs (99) at Subiaco (WA) [Western Bulldogs by 47) West Coast by 0
Geelong (85) defeated Hawthorn (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 2) Geelong by 7
Sydney (55) lost to Greater Western Sydney (91) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 36) Sydney by 8
Adelaide (141) defeated North Melbourne (79) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 62) Adelaide by 41

Semi Final


Hawthorn (84) lost to Western Bulldogs (107) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 23) Hawthorn by 2
Sydney (118) defeated Adelaide (82) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 36) Sydney by 10

Preliminary Final


Geelong (60) lost to Sydney (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 37) Geelong by 5
Greater Western Sydney (83) lost to Western Bulldogs (89) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 6) Greater Western Sydney by 19

Grand Final


Sydney (67) lost to Western Bulldogs (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 22) Sydney by 4

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

90%
10%

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

Flagpole Height
1Western Bulldogs65.8
2Sydney0.0
3Adelaide0.0
4Greater Western Sydney0.0
5Geelong0.0
6Hawthorn0.0
7West Coast0.0
8Collingwood0.0
9North Melbourne0.0
10Port Adelaide0.0
11St Kilda0.0
12Melbourne0.0
13Richmond0.0
14Carlton0.0
15Fremantle0.0
16Gold Coast0.0
17Essendon0.0
18Brisbane Lions0.0

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

AttackDefenceCombined
1Sydney62.171.466.7
2Western Bulldogs59.971.765.8
3Adelaide69.861.565.7
4Greater Western Sydney65.266.065.6
5Geelong61.168.764.9
6Hawthorn61.259.960.6
7West Coast58.160.859.5
8Collingwood56.657.557.0
9North Melbourne56.356.856.6
10Port Adelaide55.654.254.9
11St Kilda54.455.054.7
12Melbourne51.757.354.5
13Richmond48.452.350.3
14Carlton46.353.449.9
15Fremantle43.752.448.1
16Gold Coast47.247.447.3
17Essendon45.046.946.0
18Brisbane Lions49.939.044.4
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