INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

• They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.

• They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.

• They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).

• They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

• Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.

• Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

• Scores, obviously.

• Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.

• Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.

• Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.

• Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.

• Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

• Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.

• Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

• Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.

• Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.

• Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.

• Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.

• The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

• Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.

• Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.

• Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

• Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.

• Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.

• Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Wed Jun 13 11:54:12 2018 (R27)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 2013, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 154 games at an accuracy of 74.40%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 1

Adelaide (82) lost to Essendon (117) at Football Park (SA) [Essendon by 35) Adelaide by 13
Fremantle (108) defeated West Coast (80) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 28) Fremantle by 2
Carlton (101) lost to Richmond (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 5) Richmond by 7
Western Bulldogs (127) defeated Brisbane Lions (59) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 68) Brisbane Lions by 6
Greater Western Sydney (76) lost to Sydney (106) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 30) Sydney by 80
Gold Coast (90) defeated St Kilda (77) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 13) St Kilda by 33
Melbourne (54) lost to Port Adelaide (133) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 79) Melbourne by 9
North Melbourne (87) lost to Collingwood (103) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 16) North Melbourne by 1
Hawthorn (86) lost to Geelong (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 7) Hawthorn by 21

Round 2

St Kilda (82) lost to Richmond (99) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 17) St Kilda by 6
Sydney (114) defeated Gold Coast (73) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 41) Sydney by 56
Western Bulldogs (78) lost to Fremantle (106) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 28) Fremantle by 16
Brisbane Lions (77) lost to Adelaide (96) at Gabba (QLD) [Adelaide by 19) Adelaide by 14
Port Adelaide (134) defeated Greater Western Sydney (78) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 56) Port Adelaide by 50
Essendon (184) defeated Melbourne (36) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 148) Essendon by 52
Geelong (112) defeated North Melbourne (108) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 4) Geelong by 28
Collingwood (117) defeated Carlton (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 17) Collingwood by 16
West Coast (98) lost to Hawthorn (148) at Subiaco (WA) [Hawthorn by 50) Hawthorn by 6

Round 3

Fremantle (68) lost to Essendon (72) at Subiaco (WA) [Essendon by 4) Fremantle by 7
North Melbourne (92) lost to Sydney (131) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Sydney by 39) Sydney by 13
Melbourne (83) lost to West Coast (177) at M.C.G. (VIC) [West Coast by 94) West Coast by 62
Greater Western Sydney (68) lost to St Kilda (140) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [St Kilda by 72) St Kilda by 33
Geelong (119) defeated Carlton (103) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 16) Geelong by 7
Gold Coast (92) lost to Brisbane Lions (94) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 2) Brisbane Lions by 8
Richmond (135) defeated Western Bulldogs (68) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 67) Richmond by 26
Collingwood (90) lost to Hawthorn (145) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 55) Hawthorn by 9
Port Adelaide (118) defeated Adelaide (109) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 9) Adelaide by 6

Round 4

Sydney (103) lost to Geelong (124) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Geelong by 21) Sydney by 1
Hawthorn (118) defeated Fremantle (76) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 42) Hawthorn by 31
Richmond (79) lost to Collingwood (113) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 34) Richmond by 13
St Kilda (91) lost to Essendon (128) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 37) Essendon by 7
West Coast (65) lost to Carlton (89) at Subiaco (WA) [Carlton by 24) West Coast by 13
Gold Coast (66) lost to Port Adelaide (104) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 38) Port Adelaide by 20
Melbourne (144) defeated Greater Western Sydney (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 41) Greater Western Sydney by 0
Adelaide (80) defeated Western Bulldogs (28) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 52) Adelaide by 31
North Melbourne (125) defeated Brisbane Lions (62) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 63) North Melbourne by 20

Round 5

Essendon (121) defeated Collingwood (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 46) Essendon by 5
St Kilda (63) lost to Sydney (79) at Wellington (NZ) [Sydney by 16) Sydney by 6
Fremantle (81) defeated Richmond (80) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 1) Fremantle by 18
Greater Western Sydney (104) lost to Gold Coast (148) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Gold Coast by 44) Gold Coast by 14
Carlton (115) defeated Adelaide (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 32) Carlton by 4
Western Bulldogs (86) lost to Geelong (107) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 21) Geelong by 40
Port Adelaide (84) defeated West Coast (79) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 5) Port Adelaide by 9
Brisbane Lions (122) defeated Melbourne (94) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 28) Brisbane Lions by 32
Hawthorn (99) defeated North Melbourne (96) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 3) Hawthorn by 44

Round 6

Collingwood (103) defeated St Kilda (77) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 26) St Kilda by 1
Essendon (120) defeated Greater Western Sydney (81) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 39) Essendon by 99
North Melbourne (93) defeated Port Adelaide (83) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 10) North Melbourne by 5
Adelaide (78) lost to Hawthorn (89) at Football Park (SA) [Hawthorn by 11) Hawthorn by 7
Gold Coast (54) lost to Fremantle (99) at Carrara (QLD) [Fremantle by 45) Fremantle by 12
Richmond (87) lost to Geelong (131) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 44) Richmond by 3
Sydney (115) defeated Brisbane Lions (55) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 60) Sydney by 39
Carlton (121) defeated Melbourne (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 61) Carlton by 78
West Coast (137) defeated Western Bulldogs (67) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 70) West Coast by 42

Round 7

Geelong (113) defeated Essendon (85) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 28) Essendon by 4
Port Adelaide (73) lost to Richmond (114) at Football Park (SA) [Richmond by 41) Richmond by 6
Brisbane Lions (82) lost to West Coast (108) at Gabba (QLD) [West Coast by 26) West Coast by 19
Western Bulldogs (97) lost to North Melbourne (151) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 54) North Melbourne by 17
Fremantle (100) defeated Collingwood (73) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 27) Fremantle by 10
Hawthorn (119) defeated Sydney (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 37) Hawthorn by 25
Greater Western Sydney (52) lost to Adelaide (187) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Adelaide by 135) Adelaide by 43
Melbourne (54) lost to Gold Coast (114) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Gold Coast by 60) Gold Coast by 18
St Kilda (77) defeated Carlton (68) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 9) Carlton by 11

Round 8

West Coast (90) defeated North Melbourne (88) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 2) West Coast by 21
Essendon (86) lost to Brisbane Lions (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 10) Essendon by 54
Hawthorn (140) defeated Greater Western Sydney (57) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 83) Hawthorn by 98
Gold Coast (93) defeated Western Bulldogs (61) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 32) Gold Coast by 18
Collingwood (102) defeated Geelong (96) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 6) Geelong by 11
Sydney (70) drew with Fremantle (70) at S.C.G. (NSW) [DRAW by 0) Sydney by 9
Carlton (109) defeated Port Adelaide (91) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 18) Carlton by 3
Richmond (106) defeated Melbourne (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 34) Richmond by 70
Adelaide (87) defeated St Kilda (47) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 40) Adelaide by 21

Round 9

Collingwood (55) lost to Sydney (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 47) Collingwood by 17
Port Adelaide (68) lost to Geelong (116) at Football Park (SA) [Geelong by 48) Geelong by 14
Greater Western Sydney (55) lost to West Coast (155) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [West Coast by 100) West Coast by 42
St Kilda (101) lost to Western Bulldogs (110) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 9) St Kilda by 30
Brisbane Lions (85) lost to Carlton (98) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 13) Carlton by 23
Richmond (62) lost to Essendon (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 29) Essendon by 3
Hawthorn (118) defeated Gold Coast (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 26) Hawthorn by 59
North Melbourne (124) lost to Adelaide (125) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 1) Adelaide by 0
Fremantle (130) defeated Melbourne (40) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 90) Fremantle by 72

Round 10

Brisbane Lions (51) lost to Collingwood (100) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 49) Collingwood by 24
Carlton (148) defeated Greater Western Sydney (54) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 94) Carlton by 73
Adelaide (59) lost to Fremantle (66) at Football Park (SA) [Fremantle by 7) Adelaide by 6
Sydney (115) defeated Essendon (71) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 44) Sydney by 12
Western Bulldogs (67) defeated Port Adelaide (58) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Western Bulldogs by 9) Port Adelaide by 21
Geelong (123) defeated Gold Coast (71) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 52) Geelong by 58
Melbourne (48) lost to Hawthorn (143) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 95) Hawthorn by 87
North Melbourne (133) defeated St Kilda (65) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 68) North Melbourne by 9
West Coast (62) lost to Richmond (103) at Subiaco (WA) [Richmond by 41) West Coast by 21

Round 11

Essendon (77) defeated Carlton (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 5) Carlton by 1
Greater Western Sydney (98) lost to Geelong (157) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Geelong by 59) Geelong by 71
Adelaide (50) lost to Sydney (127) at Football Park (SA) [Sydney by 77) Adelaide by 16
Gold Coast (66) defeated North Melbourne (51) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 15) North Melbourne by 21
St Kilda (80) lost to West Coast (84) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 4) West Coast by 7
Melbourne (39) lost to Collingwood (122) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 83) Collingwood by 67

Round 12

Carlton (87) lost to Hawthorn (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 15) Hawthorn by 19
Richmond (110) defeated Adelaide (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 38) Richmond by 8
Fremantle (86) defeated Brisbane Lions (46) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 40) Fremantle by 42
Essendon (115) defeated Gold Coast (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 43) Essendon by 34
Greater Western Sydney (50) lost to Port Adelaide (125) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Port Adelaide by 75) Port Adelaide by 38
Collingwood (99) defeated Western Bulldogs (65) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 34) Collingwood by 24

Round 13

Hawthorn (123) defeated West Coast (103) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 20) Hawthorn by 13
Port Adelaide (72) defeated Sydney (54) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 18) Sydney by 17
St Kilda (104) defeated Melbourne (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 35) St Kilda by 49
Western Bulldogs (61) lost to Richmond (121) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 60) Richmond by 32
Fremantle (67) defeated North Melbourne (29) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 38) Fremantle by 19
Brisbane Lions (103) defeated Geelong (98) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 5) Geelong by 31

Round 14

West Coast (91) lost to Essendon (98) at Subiaco (WA) [Essendon by 7) Essendon by 8
Sydney (65) defeated Carlton (43) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 22) Sydney by 19
Gold Coast (83) lost to Adelaide (111) at Carrara (QLD) [Adelaide by 28) Adelaide by 4
Port Adelaide (86) defeated Collingwood (51) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 35) Port Adelaide by 6
Melbourne (103) defeated Western Bulldogs (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 3) Western Bulldogs by 29
Geelong (85) defeated Fremantle (44) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 41) Geelong by 9
Hawthorn (143) defeated Brisbane Lions (85) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 58) Hawthorn by 47
North Melbourne (130) defeated Greater Western Sydney (44) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 86) North Melbourne by 79
Richmond (119) defeated St Kilda (55) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 64) Richmond by 24

Round 15

Carlton (77) lost to Collingwood (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 41) Collingwood by 1
Greater Western Sydney (83) lost to Western Bulldogs (87) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 4) Western Bulldogs by 13
North Melbourne (128) defeated Richmond (66) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 62) Richmond by 7
Brisbane Lions (116) defeated Gold Coast (83) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 33) Gold Coast by 4
Adelaide (69) lost to West Coast (75) at Football Park (SA) [West Coast by 6) Adelaide by 8
Geelong (82) defeated Hawthorn (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 10) Hawthorn by 9
Melbourne (85) lost to Sydney (116) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 31) Sydney by 63
Fremantle (100) defeated St Kilda (70) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 30) Fremantle by 47
Essendon (118) defeated Port Adelaide (88) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 30) Essendon by 20

Round 16

Collingwood (111) defeated Adelaide (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 27) Collingwood by 16
Port Adelaide (79) lost to Hawthorn (124) at Football Park (SA) [Hawthorn by 45) Hawthorn by 1
Geelong (98) defeated Melbourne (30) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 68) Geelong by 81
Richmond (53) defeated Gold Coast (44) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Richmond by 9) Richmond by 13
Carlton (110) defeated St Kilda (74) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 36) Carlton by 10
Brisbane Lions (117) defeated North Melbourne (105) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 12) North Melbourne by 18
Sydney (171) defeated Greater Western Sydney (42) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 129) Sydney by 75
Western Bulldogs (90) lost to Essendon (121) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 31) Essendon by 33
West Coast (93) lost to Fremantle (121) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 28) Fremantle by 8

Round 17

North Melbourne (108) lost to Carlton (109) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 1) North Melbourne by 7
Hawthorn (95) defeated Western Bulldogs (76) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 19) Hawthorn by 55
Greater Western Sydney (77) lost to Essendon (116) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Essendon by 39) Essendon by 64
Gold Coast (85) defeated Collingwood (78) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 7) Collingwood by 14
Melbourne (75) lost to Brisbane Lions (94) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Brisbane Lions by 19) Brisbane Lions by 34
St Kilda (92) lost to Port Adelaide (97) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 5) Port Adelaide by 4
Richmond (84) defeated Fremantle (57) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 18
Adelaide (94) defeated Geelong (92) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 2) Geelong by 14
West Coast (79) lost to Sydney (113) at Subiaco (WA) [Sydney by 34) West Coast by 7

Round 18

Essendon (87) lost to Hawthorn (143) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 56) Hawthorn by 13
Gold Coast (77) lost to Carlton (120) at Carrara (QLD) [Carlton by 43) Carlton by 13
Melbourne (28) lost to North Melbourne (150) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 122) North Melbourne by 63
Collingwood (106) defeated Greater Western Sydney (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 40) Collingwood by 75
Fremantle (75) defeated Adelaide (53) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 22) Fremantle by 21
Geelong (137) defeated St Kilda (36) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 101) Geelong by 44
Port Adelaide (71) defeated Brisbane Lions (62) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 9) Port Adelaide by 28
Western Bulldogs (111) defeated West Coast (89) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 22) West Coast by 10
Sydney (110) defeated Richmond (63) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 47) Sydney by 12

Round 19

North Melbourne (96) defeated Geelong (86) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 10) Geelong by 19
Greater Western Sydney (124) defeated Melbourne (87) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 37) Greater Western Sydney by 21
Hawthorn (66) lost to Richmond (107) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 41) Hawthorn by 7
West Coast (130) defeated Gold Coast (113) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 17) West Coast by 23
Carlton (80) lost to Fremantle (116) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 36) Carlton by 2
Brisbane Lions (108) defeated St Kilda (77) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 31) Brisbane Lions by 12
Western Bulldogs (99) lost to Sydney (134) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 35) Sydney by 39
Adelaide (103) lost to Port Adelaide (107) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 4) Adelaide by 12
Collingwood (133) defeated Essendon (54) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 79) Collingwood by 3

Round 20

St Kilda (56) lost to Hawthorn (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 46) Hawthorn by 34
Richmond (97) defeated Brisbane Lions (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 23) Richmond by 43
Geelong (129) defeated Port Adelaide (104) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 25) Geelong by 38
Carlton (89) lost to Western Bulldogs (117) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 28) Carlton by 17
Sydney (71) lost to Collingwood (100) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Collingwood by 29) Sydney by 19
Gold Coast (90) defeated Melbourne (77) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 13) Gold Coast by 53
Essendon (67) lost to West Coast (120) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 53) Essendon by 5
Adelaide (79) defeated North Melbourne (70) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 9) Adelaide by 10
Fremantle (157) defeated Greater Western Sydney (44) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 113) Fremantle by 75

Round 21

Hawthorn (119) defeated Collingwood (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 35) Hawthorn by 8
Richmond (96) lost to Carlton (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 10) Richmond by 17
Port Adelaide (113) defeated Gold Coast (96) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 17) Port Adelaide by 34
Essendon (70) lost to North Melbourne (115) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 45) North Melbourne by 15
West Coast (41) lost to Geelong (107) at Subiaco (WA) [Geelong by 66) Geelong by 6
Brisbane Lions (123) defeated Greater Western Sydney (63) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 60) Brisbane Lions by 59
Melbourne (38) lost to Fremantle (133) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 95) Fremantle by 50
Sydney (118) defeated St Kilda (59) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 59) Sydney by 47
Western Bulldogs (131) defeated Adelaide (114) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 17) Adelaide by 13

Round 22

Collingwood (101) defeated West Coast (39) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 62) Collingwood by 20
Adelaide (120) defeated Melbourne (52) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 68) Adelaide by 69
North Melbourne (103) lost to Hawthorn (117) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 14) Hawthorn by 0
Geelong (92) defeated Sydney (48) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 44) Geelong by 34
Fremantle (134) defeated Port Adelaide (60) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 74) Fremantle by 30
Carlton (76) lost to Essendon (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 6) Essendon by 1
St Kilda (116) defeated Gold Coast (70) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 46) St Kilda by 12
Greater Western Sydney (42) lost to Richmond (163) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Richmond by 121) Richmond by 64
Brisbane Lions (100) defeated Western Bulldogs (93) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 7) Brisbane Lions by 12

Round 23

Sydney (100) lost to Hawthorn (112) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Hawthorn by 12) Sydney by 4
St Kilda (112) defeated Fremantle (41) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 71) St Kilda by 6
Geelong (112) defeated Brisbane Lions (111) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 1) Geelong by 63
Port Adelaide (103) lost to Carlton (104) at Football Park (SA) [Carlton by 1) Carlton by 0
Essendon (65) lost to Richmond (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 39) Richmond by 19
West Coast (43) lost to Adelaide (129) at Subiaco (WA) [Adelaide by 86) Adelaide by 2
Gold Coast (146) defeated Greater Western Sydney (63) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 83) Gold Coast by 59
Collingwood (114) lost to North Melbourne (125) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 11) Collingwood by 10
Western Bulldogs (107) defeated Melbourne (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 20) Western Bulldogs by 48

Qualifying Final

Hawthorn (105) defeated Sydney (51) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 54) Hawthorn by 2
Geelong (72) lost to Fremantle (87) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Fremantle by 15) Fremantle by 6
Collingwood (63) lost to Port Adelaide (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 24) Collingwood by 31
Richmond (96) lost to Carlton (116) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 20) Richmond by 18

Semi Final

Geelong (96) defeated Port Adelaide (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 16) Geelong by 35
Sydney (86) defeated Carlton (62) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 24) Sydney by 13

Preliminary Final

Hawthorn (102) defeated Geelong (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 5) Hawthorn by 12
Fremantle (99) defeated Sydney (74) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 25) Fremantle by 24

Grand Final

Hawthorn (77) defeated Fremantle (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 15) Hawthorn by 17

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SKILL

90%

LUCK

10%

Open Door

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Geelong	66.0	66.6	66.3
2	Hawthorn	69.8	62.1	65.9
3	Fremantle	56.2	70.5	63.3
4	Richmond	60.5	64.2	62.3
5	North Melbourne	62.9	59.5	61.2
6	Collingwood	59.3	61.9	60.6
7	Adelaide	59.3	60.0	59.6
8	Sydney	55.9	61.2	58.5
9	Carlton	62.2	54.1	58.2
10	Port Adelaide	57.2	58.0	57.6
11	Essendon	56.8	53.0	54.9
12	West Coast	54.3	52.8	53.6
13	St Kilda	52.1	52.5	52.3
14	Brisbane Lions	54.6	49.6	52.1
15	Western Bulldogs	53.0	48.7	50.9
16	Gold Coast	49.8	48.9	49.4
17	Melbourne	40.6	41.5	41.1
18	Greater Western Sydney	41.7	38.1	39.9