INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

• They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.

• They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.

• They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).

• They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

• Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.

• Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

• Scores, obviously.

• Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.

• Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.

• Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.

• Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.

• Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

• Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.

• Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

• Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.

• Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.

• Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.

• Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.

• The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

• Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.

• Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.

• Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

• Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.

• Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.

• Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Wed Jun 13 12:12:15 2018 (R26)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 2008, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 129 games at an accuracy of 69.73%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 1

Carlton (79) lost to Richmond (109) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 30) Richmond by 7
Port Adelaide (96) lost to Geelong (105) at Football Park (SA) [Geelong by 9) Geelong by 29
Collingwood (111) defeated Fremantle (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 26) Collingwood by 20
St Kilda (51) defeated Sydney (49) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 2) St Kilda by 2
West Coast (92) defeated Brisbane Lions (76) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 16) West Coast by 6
Western Bulldogs (126) defeated Adelaide (123) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 3) Adelaide by 20
Hawthorn (154) defeated Melbourne (50) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 104) Hawthorn by 24
North Melbourne (67) lost to Essendon (122) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 55) North Melbourne by 10

Round 2

Brisbane Lions (96) defeated Collingwood (94) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 2) Brisbane Lions by 8
Melbourne (66) lost to Western Bulldogs (161) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 95) Western Bulldogs by 18
Adelaide (133) defeated West Coast (57) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 76) Adelaide by 13
St Kilda (125) defeated Carlton (85) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 40) St Kilda by 21
Fremantle (97) lost to Hawthorn (112) at Subiaco (WA) [Hawthorn by 15) Hawthorn by 12
Sydney (146) defeated Port Adelaide (78) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 68) Sydney by 6
Geelong (150) defeated Essendon (51) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 99) Geelong by 43
Richmond (86) lost to North Melbourne (127) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 41) North Melbourne by 4

Round 3

Western Bulldogs (125) defeated St Kilda (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 38) St Kilda by 4
North Melbourne (86) lost to Hawthorn (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 16) Hawthorn by 19
West Coast (73) lost to Fremantle (87) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 14) West Coast by 2
Brisbane Lions (71) lost to Sydney (88) at Gabba (QLD) [Sydney by 17) Brisbane Lions by 5
Essendon (150) defeated Carlton (134) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 16) Essendon by 19
Geelong (112) defeated Melbourne (82) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 30) Geelong by 99
Richmond (78) lost to Collingwood (122) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 44) Collingwood by 31
Adelaide (85) defeated Port Adelaide (79) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 6) Adelaide by 7

Round 4

Essendon (98) lost to Western Bulldogs (128) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 30) Western Bulldogs by 8
St Kilda (94) lost to Geelong (136) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 42) Geelong by 37
North Melbourne (127) defeated Melbourne (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 48) North Melbourne by 20
Sydney (107) defeated West Coast (45) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 62) Sydney by 31
Port Adelaide (104) lost to Brisbane Lions (124) at Football Park (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 20) Port Adelaide by 14
Hawthorn (114) defeated Adelaide (70) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 44) Hawthorn by 9
Carlton (111) defeated Collingwood (88) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 23) Collingwood by 39
Fremantle (73) lost to Richmond (137) at Subiaco (WA) [Richmond by 64) Fremantle by 26

Round 5

St Kilda (123) defeated Essendon (87) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 36) St Kilda by 7
Geelong (114) defeated Sydney (72) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 42) Geelong by 31
Adelaide (88) defeated Fremantle (71) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 17) Adelaide by 30
Collingwood (105) lost to North Melbourne (112) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 7) Collingwood by 10
Brisbane Lions (118) lost to Hawthorn (130) at Gabba (QLD) [Hawthorn by 12) Brisbane Lions by 1
Melbourne (68) lost to Carlton (101) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 33) Carlton by 17
Western Bulldogs (130) drew with Richmond (130) at Docklands (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Western Bulldogs by 13
West Coast (104) lost to Port Adelaide (128) at Subiaco (WA) [Port Adelaide by 24) West Coast by 2

Round 6

Collingwood (154) defeated Essendon (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 73) Collingwood by 19
Fremantle (88) lost to Geelong (89) at Subiaco (WA) [Geelong by 1) Geelong by 42
Carlton (81) lost to Adelaide (111) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 30) Adelaide by 13
Western Bulldogs (134) defeated West Coast (74) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 60) Western Bulldogs by 22
Port Adelaide (82) defeated St Kilda (61) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 21) Port Adelaide by 11
Brisbane Lions (137) defeated Melbourne (85) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 52) Brisbane Lions by 51
North Melbourne (64) drew with Sydney (64) at Docklands (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Sydney by 7
Hawthorn (106) defeated Richmond (94) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 12) Hawthorn by 29

Round 7

West Coast (74) lost to Carlton (111) at Subiaco (WA) [Carlton by 37) West Coast by 11
Hawthorn (154) defeated Collingwood (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 65) Hawthorn by 12
Geelong (105) defeated Brisbane Lions (78) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 27) Geelong by 37
Richmond (107) lost to St Kilda (110) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 3) St Kilda by 14
Adelaide (107) defeated North Melbourne (74) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 33) Adelaide by 19
Sydney (94) lost to Western Bulldogs (112) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 18) Sydney by 24
Melbourne (119) defeated Fremantle (113) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 6) Fremantle by 16
Essendon (94) lost to Port Adelaide (158) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 64) Port Adelaide by 16

Round 8

St Kilda (94) lost to Collingwood (103) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 9) Collingwood by 3
Richmond (69) lost to Geelong (99) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 30) Geelong by 40
Hawthorn (117) defeated Port Adelaide (102) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 15) Hawthorn by 20
Carlton (92) lost to Brisbane Lions (125) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 33) Brisbane Lions by 16
North Melbourne (89) defeated West Coast (83) at Carrara (QLD) [North Melbourne by 6) North Melbourne by 15
Adelaide (150) defeated Melbourne (74) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 76) Adelaide by 51
Sydney (143) defeated Essendon (52) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 91) Sydney by 45
Fremantle (111) lost to Western Bulldogs (114) at Subiaco (WA) [Western Bulldogs by 3) Western Bulldogs by 7

Round 9

Collingwood (134) defeated Geelong (48) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 86) Geelong by 24
Carlton (97) defeated Fremantle (88) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 9) Carlton by 5
Port Adelaide (94) lost to Sydney (105) at Football Park (SA) [Sydney by 11) Port Adelaide by 7
Essendon (72) lost to Richmond (110) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 38) Richmond by 17
West Coast (97) defeated Adelaide (47) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 50) Adelaide by 14
Brisbane Lions (141) defeated St Kilda (95) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 46) Brisbane Lions by 20
Melbourne (78) lost to Hawthorn (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 19) Hawthorn by 61
Western Bulldogs (110) lost to North Melbourne (113) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 3) Western Bulldogs by 15

Round 10

Adelaide (74) defeated Essendon (69) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 5) Adelaide by 44
Collingwood (173) defeated West Coast (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 100) Collingwood by 39
Hawthorn (74) lost to Western Bulldogs (106) at York Park (TAS) [Western Bulldogs by 32) Hawthorn by 27
Geelong (133) defeated Carlton (77) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 56) Geelong by 34
Brisbane Lions (129) defeated North Melbourne (98) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 31) Brisbane Lions by 27
Sydney (139) defeated Richmond (57) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 82) Sydney by 34
St Kilda (129) defeated Melbourne (50) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 79) St Kilda by 30
Fremantle (75) lost to Port Adelaide (103) at Subiaco (WA) [Port Adelaide by 28) Port Adelaide by 10

Round 11

North Melbourne (114) lost to Geelong (127) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 13) Geelong by 31
Richmond (96) lost to Adelaide (146) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 50) Adelaide by 6
Essendon (79) lost to Hawthorn (130) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 51) Hawthorn by 40
West Coast (78) lost to Sydney (83) at Subiaco (WA) [Sydney by 5) Sydney by 18
Brisbane Lions (96) defeated Fremantle (74) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 22) Brisbane Lions by 38
St Kilda (79) lost to Western Bulldogs (106) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 27) Western Bulldogs by 10
Port Adelaide (63) lost to Carlton (75) at Football Park (SA) [Carlton by 12) Port Adelaide by 36
Melbourne (95) lost to Collingwood (116) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 21) Collingwood by 58

Round 12

Essendon (113) defeated West Coast (91) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 22) West Coast by 5
Western Bulldogs (131) defeated Brisbane Lions (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 63) Western Bulldogs by 15
Fremantle (120) defeated North Melbourne (67) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 53) Fremantle by 6
Sydney (102) defeated St Kilda (67) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 35) Sydney by 25
Adelaide (72) lost to Hawthorn (76) at Football Park (SA) [Hawthorn by 4) Adelaide by 2
Geelong (108) defeated Port Adelaide (49) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 59) Geelong by 32
Collingwood (89) lost to Carlton (119) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 30) Collingwood by 28
Richmond (116) defeated Melbourne (94) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 22) Richmond by 18

Round 13

St Kilda (65) defeated Fremantle (57) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 8) St Kilda by 17
Hawthorn (76) lost to North Melbourne (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 27) Hawthorn by 24
Port Adelaide (123) lost to Richmond (127) at Football Park (SA) [Richmond by 4) Port Adelaide by 25
Brisbane Lions (83) defeated Adelaide (70) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 13) Brisbane Lions by 12
West Coast (47) lost to Geelong (182) at Subiaco (WA) [Geelong by 135) Geelong by 30
Melbourne (74) lost to Sydney (114) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Sydney by 40) Sydney by 58
Carlton (101) lost to Essendon (136) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 35) Carlton by 21
Collingwood (89) lost to Western Bulldogs (99) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 10) Western Bulldogs by 9

Round 14

Hawthorn (126) defeated West Coast (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 57) Hawthorn by 39
Richmond (88) lost to Carlton (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 30) Carlton by 1
North Melbourne (69) lost to St Kilda (84) at Carrara (QLD) [St Kilda by 15) St Kilda by 1
Western Bulldogs (135) defeated Port Adelaide (81) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Western Bulldogs by 54) Western Bulldogs by 23
Melbourne (93) defeated Brisbane Lions (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 1) Brisbane Lions by 30
Fremantle (91) lost to Essendon (95) at Subiaco (WA) [Essendon by 4) Fremantle by 28
Adelaide (56) lost to Geelong (124) at Football Park (SA) [Geelong by 68) Geelong by 15
Sydney (50) lost to Collingwood (79) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Collingwood by 29) Sydney by 15

Round 15

Carlton (87) lost to St Kilda (119) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 32) St Kilda by 7
Collingwood (106) defeated Adelaide (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 32) Collingwood by 24
Geelong (118) defeated Fremantle (44) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 74) Geelong by 53
Essendon (155) defeated Brisbane Lions (118) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 37) Brisbane Lions by 17
Port Adelaide (74) lost to North Melbourne (76) at Football Park (SA) [North Melbourne by 2) Port Adelaide by 13
Hawthorn (106) defeated Sydney (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 31) Hawthorn by 8
Western Bulldogs (95) defeated Melbourne (64) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 31) Western Bulldogs by 55
West Coast (75) lost to Richmond (152) at Subiaco (WA) [Richmond by 77) West Coast by 3

Round 16

North Melbourne (114) defeated Collingwood (96) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 18) Collingwood by 21
Richmond (108) defeated Essendon (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 4) Richmond by 9
Geelong (131) defeated Western Bulldogs (70) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 61) Geelong by 31
St Kilda (119) defeated Hawthorn (89) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 30) Hawthorn by 10
Brisbane Lions (113) defeated West Coast (67) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 46) Brisbane Lions by 39
Carlton (119) lost to Sydney (121) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 2) Sydney by 11
Port Adelaide (92) defeated Adelaide (80) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 12) Adelaide by 3
Fremantle (114) defeated Melbourne (68) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 46) Fremantle by 29

Round 17

Hawthorn (77) lost to Geelong (88) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 11) Geelong by 26
Essendon (128) defeated Collingwood (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 48) Collingwood by 33
West Coast (103) defeated St Kilda (86) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 17) St Kilda by 13
Sydney (53) lost to Adelaide (77) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Adelaide by 24) Sydney by 24
Richmond (117) defeated Brisbane Lions (114) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 3) Brisbane Lions by 3
Port Adelaide (101) lost to Fremantle (129) at Football Park (SA) [Fremantle by 28) Port Adelaide by 12
Melbourne (70) lost to North Melbourne (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 28) North Melbourne by 26
Western Bulldogs (98) lost to Carlton (126) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 28) Western Bulldogs by 28

Round 18

Collingwood (62) lost to Hawthorn (116) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 54) Collingwood by 0
Essendon (124) defeated Melbourne (108) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 16) Essendon by 21
Adelaide (94) defeated Carlton (86) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 8) Adelaide by 15
Geelong (134) defeated Richmond (71) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 63) Geelong by 48
North Melbourne (92) defeated Brisbane Lions (84) at Carrara (QLD) [North Melbourne by 8) Brisbane Lions by 10
Western Bulldogs (113) defeated Sydney (97) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 16) Sydney by 7
St Kilda (101) defeated Port Adelaide (93) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 8) St Kilda by 16
Fremantle (116) defeated West Coast (83) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 33) Fremantle by 17

Round 19

Melbourne (41) lost to Geelong (157) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 116) Geelong by 64
Carlton (132) defeated Port Adelaide (66) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 66) Carlton by 12
Hawthorn (110) defeated Brisbane Lions (41) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 69) Hawthorn by 23
Collingwood (97) defeated St Kilda (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 14) Collingwood by 8
Sydney (112) defeated Fremantle (108) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 4) Sydney by 20
North Melbourne (136) defeated Western Bulldogs (116) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 20) Western Bulldogs by 15
Adelaide (108) defeated Richmond (45) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 63) Adelaide by 21
West Coast (113) defeated Essendon (103) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 10) Essendon by 3

Round 20

Port Adelaide (75) lost to Collingwood (106) at Football Park (SA) [Collingwood by 31) Collingwood by 5
Essendon (73) lost to Adelaide (129) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 56) Adelaide by 6
Melbourne (79) defeated West Coast (45) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 34) West Coast by 1
Brisbane Lions (90) defeated Western Bulldogs (79) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 11) Western Bulldogs by 1
Sydney (94) lost to Geelong (133) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Geelong by 39) Geelong by 22
Richmond (105) defeated Hawthorn (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 29) Hawthorn by 31
Carlton (90) lost to North Melbourne (141) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 51) North Melbourne by 0
Fremantle (69) lost to St Kilda (112) at Subiaco (WA) [St Kilda by 43) Fremantle by 10

Round 21

Western Bulldogs (151) defeated Essendon (105) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 46) Western Bulldogs by 28
Richmond (105) defeated Fremantle (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 7) Richmond by 2
Port Adelaide (129) defeated Melbourne (51) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 78) Port Adelaide by 30
Brisbane Lions (109) lost to Carlton (115) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 6) Brisbane Lions by 11
Collingwood (118) defeated Sydney (73) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 45) Collingwood by 11
Geelong (115) defeated North Melbourne (82) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 33) Geelong by 46
St Kilda (95) defeated Adelaide (47) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 48) St Kilda by 5
West Coast (62) lost to Hawthorn (133) at Subiaco (WA) [Hawthorn by 71) Hawthorn by 26

Round 22

Fremantle (80) defeated Collingwood (56) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 24) Collingwood by 0
North Melbourne (72) lost to Port Adelaide (148) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 76) North Melbourne by 20
Geelong (164) defeated West Coast (65) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 99) Geelong by 76
Adelaide (76) defeated Western Bulldogs (67) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 9) Adelaide by 4
Carlton (81) lost to Hawthorn (159) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 78) Hawthorn by 21
Sydney (114) defeated Brisbane Lions (53) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 61) Sydney by 18
Melbourne (41) lost to Richmond (121) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 80) Richmond by 24
Essendon (39) lost to St Kilda (147) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 108) St Kilda by 21

Qualifying Final

Hawthorn (127) defeated Western Bulldogs (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 51) Hawthorn by 13
Adelaide (94) lost to Collingwood (125) at Football Park (SA) [Collingwood by 31) Adelaide by 7
Sydney (110) defeated North Melbourne (75) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 35) Sydney by 14
Geelong (119) defeated St Kilda (61) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 58) Geelong by 23

Semi Final

Western Bulldogs (106) defeated Sydney (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 37) Western Bulldogs by 9
St Kilda (106) defeated Collingwood (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 34) Collingwood by 1

Preliminary Final

Geelong (83) defeated Western Bulldogs (54) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 29) Geelong by 37
Hawthorn (118) defeated St Kilda (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 54) Hawthorn by 14

Grand Final

Geelong (89) lost to Hawthorn (115) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 26) Geelong by 12

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SKILL

90%

LUCK

10%

Open Door

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Geelong	71.5	68.9	70.2
2	Hawthorn	67.4	62.2	64.8
3	Collingwood	60.9	56.3	58.6
4	Western Bulldogs	61.2	54.7	58.0
5	St Kilda	56.1	59.8	57.9
6	Sydney	55.5	56.9	56.2
7	Adelaide	52.9	57.5	55.2
8	North Melbourne	57.1	53.1	55.1
9	Port Adelaide	58.0	51.5	54.7
10	Richmond	56.8	52.4	54.6
11	Fremantle	54.1	54.7	54.4
12	Carlton	60.5	47.8	54.1
13	Brisbane Lions	56.7	50.8	53.8
14	Essendon	55.8	44.1	50.0
15	West Coast	48.3	46.2	47.2
16	Melbourne	44.7	45.2	45.0