INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

• They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.

• They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.

• They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).

• They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

• Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.

• Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

• Scores, obviously.

• Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.

• Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.

• Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.

• Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.

• Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

• Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.

• Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

• Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.

• Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.

• Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.

• Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.

• The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

• Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.

• Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.

• Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

• Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.

• Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.

• Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Wed Jun 13 11:03:21 2018 (R26)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 2002, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 117 games at an accuracy of 63.24%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 1

Richmond (155) defeated Collingwood (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 37) Richmond by 2
St Kilda (89) defeated Carlton (65) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 24) Carlton by 43
Geelong (76) lost to Essendon (126) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 50) Essendon by 25
Port Adelaide (73) lost to North Melbourne (83) at Football Park (SA) [North Melbourne by 10) Port Adelaide by 26
Sydney (87) lost to Brisbane Lions (110) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 23) Brisbane Lions by 15
Western Bulldogs (93) lost to Adelaide (112) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 19) Adelaide by 3
West Coast (137) defeated Fremantle (118) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 19) Fremantle by 5
Hawthorn (103) lost to Melbourne (129) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 26) Hawthorn by 13

Round 2

Essendon (112) defeated Richmond (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 52) Essendon by 16
Carlton (33) lost to Sydney (111) at Princes Park (VIC) [Sydney by 78) Carlton by 12
Collingwood (120) defeated West Coast (119) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 1) Collingwood by 32
North Melbourne (110) defeated Western Bulldogs (97) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 13) North Melbourne by 12
Adelaide (110) defeated Geelong (79) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 31) Adelaide by 24
Brisbane Lions (148) defeated Hawthorn (46) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 102) Brisbane Lions by 35
Melbourne (109) defeated Port Adelaide (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 27) Melbourne by 5
Fremantle (76) defeated St Kilda (73) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 3) St Kilda by 13

Round 3

Carlton (75) defeated Collingwood (55) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 20) Carlton by 3
Richmond (96) defeated Melbourne (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 20) Richmond by 3
Adelaide (114) defeated Sydney (84) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 30) Sydney by 4
Brisbane Lions (117) defeated Essendon (67) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 50) Brisbane Lions by 20
North Melbourne (67) lost to Geelong (75) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 8) North Melbourne by 21
Hawthorn (89) defeated Fremantle (79) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 10) Hawthorn by 16
St Kilda (56) lost to Port Adelaide (139) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 83) Port Adelaide by 1
West Coast (113) defeated Western Bulldogs (81) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 32) Western Bulldogs by 13

Round 4

Essendon (122) defeated Adelaide (81) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 41) Essendon by 19
Collingwood (104) defeated Hawthorn (63) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 41) Collingwood by 2
Melbourne (137) defeated West Coast (103) at Princes Park (VIC) [Melbourne by 34) Melbourne by 24
Sydney (103) defeated North Melbourne (100) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 3) Sydney by 21
Western Bulldogs (78) lost to Brisbane Lions (94) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 16) Brisbane Lions by 43
Port Adelaide (148) defeated Carlton (95) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 53) Port Adelaide by 24
Geelong (166) defeated St Kilda (44) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 122) Geelong by 21
Fremantle (138) defeated Richmond (72) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 66) Richmond by 15

Round 5

Collingwood (66) defeated Essendon (33) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 33) Essendon by 27
Western Bulldogs (81) lost to Melbourne (104) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 23) Western Bulldogs by 3
Hawthorn (125) defeated Richmond (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 42) Richmond by 11
West Coast (121) defeated Brisbane Lions (75) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 46) Brisbane Lions by 49
St Kilda (56) drew with Sydney (56) at Docklands (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Sydney by 31
Adelaide (82) lost to Port Adelaide (90) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 8) Port Adelaide by 2
Geelong (111) defeated Fremantle (49) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 62) Geelong by 26
Carlton (112) lost to North Melbourne (131) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 19) North Melbourne by 8

Round 6

St Kilda (28) lost to Collingwood (111) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 83) Collingwood by 29
North Melbourne (87) lost to Hawthorn (155) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 68) North Melbourne by 18
Fremantle (89) defeated Essendon (62) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 27) Essendon by 18
Carlton (68) lost to Western Bulldogs (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 28) Carlton by 2
Brisbane Lions (146) defeated Geelong (89) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 57) Brisbane Lions by 34
Sydney (99) defeated Melbourne (71) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 28) Sydney by 31
Richmond (73) lost to Adelaide (105) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 32) Adelaide by 14
Port Adelaide (133) defeated West Coast (79) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 54) Port Adelaide by 36

Round 7

Essendon (87) defeated Carlton (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 25) Essendon by 17
Hawthorn (130) defeated Geelong (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 52) Geelong by 1
West Coast (139) defeated North Melbourne (90) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 49) North Melbourne by 4
Richmond (88) defeated Sydney (82) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 6) Sydney by 13
Adelaide (118) defeated Fremantle (89) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 29) Adelaide by 34
Brisbane Lions (129) defeated Port Adelaide (72) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 57) Brisbane Lions by 29
Western Bulldogs (63) lost to Collingwood (73) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 10) Collingwood by 21
Melbourne (105) defeated St Kilda (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 3) Melbourne by 25

Round 8

Hawthorn (89) defeated Carlton (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 9) Hawthorn by 8
Richmond (94) defeated West Coast (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 21) Richmond by 5
Port Adelaide (129) defeated Geelong (54) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 75) Port Adelaide by 19
Collingwood (114) defeated Brisbane Lions (111) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 3) Brisbane Lions by 10
Fremantle (94) defeated Melbourne (89) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 5) Fremantle by 13
North Melbourne (110) defeated Adelaide (93) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [North Melbourne by 17) Adelaide by 11
Western Bulldogs (159) defeated Sydney (90) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 69) Sydney by 20
Essendon (171) defeated St Kilda (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 99) Essendon by 35

Round 9

Port Adelaide (91) defeated Collingwood (86) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 5) Port Adelaide by 8
Geelong (105) lost to Western Bulldogs (117) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Western Bulldogs by 12) Geelong by 2
Melbourne (111) defeated North Melbourne (107) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 4) North Melbourne by 8
Sydney (83) lost to Essendon (85) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Essendon by 2) Sydney by 0
St Kilda (72) defeated Richmond (63) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 9) Richmond by 19
Brisbane Lions (109) defeated Fremantle (79) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 30) Brisbane Lions by 53
Carlton (75) lost to Adelaide (131) at Princes Park (VIC) [Adelaide by 56) Adelaide by 12
West Coast (126) defeated Hawthorn (88) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 38) Hawthorn by 1

Round 10

North Melbourne (92) defeated Essendon (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 8) Essendon by 17
Richmond (98) lost to Western Bulldogs (117) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 19) Western Bulldogs by 18
Geelong (89) defeated Melbourne (63) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 26) Geelong by 12
Collingwood (95) defeated Sydney (84) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 11) Collingwood by 17
Adelaide (101) defeated Brisbane Lions (94) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 7) Brisbane Lions by 5
Hawthorn (77) lost to Port Adelaide (117) at York Park (TAS) [Port Adelaide by 40) Port Adelaide by 10
St Kilda (127) defeated West Coast (77) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 50) West Coast by 13
Fremantle (96) defeated Carlton (68) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 28) Fremantle by 19

Round 11

North Melbourne (95) defeated Richmond (84) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 11) North Melbourne by 18
Adelaide (102) defeated Hawthorn (58) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 44) Adelaide by 31
Essendon (49) lost to Port Adelaide (108) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 59) Essendon by 8
West Coast (102) defeated Sydney (89) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 13) Sydney by 4
Brisbane Lions (113) defeated St Kilda (52) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 61) Brisbane Lions by 61
Geelong (100) defeated Carlton (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 4) Geelong by 7
Western Bulldogs (145) defeated Fremantle (80) at Princes Park (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 65) Western Bulldogs by 18
Melbourne (75) lost to Collingwood (126) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 51) Collingwood by 25

Round 12

Essendon (72) defeated Hawthorn (65) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 7) Essendon by 15
Carlton (88) lost to West Coast (89) at Princes Park (VIC) [West Coast by 1) Carlton by 3
Sydney (99) lost to Geelong (101) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Geelong by 2) Sydney by 20
Fremantle (90) defeated Collingwood (79) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 11) Collingwood by 8
Western Bulldogs (133) defeated St Kilda (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 47) Western Bulldogs by 32
Melbourne (98) defeated Adelaide (73) at Princes Park (VIC) [Melbourne by 25) Adelaide by 22
Brisbane Lions (138) defeated North Melbourne (123) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 15) Brisbane Lions by 40
Port Adelaide (154) defeated Richmond (70) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 84) Port Adelaide by 43

Round 13

Essendon (120) defeated Melbourne (108) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 12) Essendon by 17
Richmond (54) lost to Geelong (96) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 42) Geelong by 5
Port Adelaide (161) defeated Western Bulldogs (115) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 46) Port Adelaide by 26
Brisbane Lions (124) defeated Carlton (109) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 15) Brisbane Lions by 54
Collingwood (93) defeated North Melbourne (60) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 33) Collingwood by 9
Sydney (139) defeated Fremantle (62) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 77) Sydney by 18
St Kilda (78) lost to Hawthorn (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 9) Hawthorn by 14
West Coast (135) defeated Adelaide (117) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 18) Adelaide by 10

Round 14

Carlton (86) defeated Richmond (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 1) Carlton by 4
Geelong (65) defeated West Coast (33) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 32) Geelong by 18
Hawthorn (74) defeated Sydney (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 10) Sydney by 8
Western Bulldogs (118) drew with Essendon (118) at Docklands (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Western Bulldogs by 1
Fremantle (63) lost to Port Adelaide (147) at Subiaco (WA) [Port Adelaide by 84) Port Adelaide by 21
Melbourne (131) defeated Brisbane Lions (110) at Gabba (QLD) [Melbourne by 21) Brisbane Lions by 45
St Kilda (84) lost to North Melbourne (128) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 44) North Melbourne by 24
Adelaide (116) lost to Collingwood (138) at Football Park (SA) [Collingwood by 22) Adelaide by 7

Round 15

Hawthorn (116) defeated Western Bulldogs (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 23) Western Bulldogs by 19
North Melbourne (83) defeated Fremantle (82) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [North Melbourne by 1) North Melbourne by 21
Collingwood (99) lost to Geelong (127) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 28) Collingwood by 13
Richmond (55) lost to Brisbane Lions (118) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 63) Brisbane Lions by 27
Adelaide (99) defeated St Kilda (81) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 18) Adelaide by 45
Sydney (92) lost to Port Adelaide (94) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Port Adelaide by 2) Port Adelaide by 9
Carlton (95) lost to Melbourne (139) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 44) Melbourne by 9
West Coast (90) defeated Essendon (63) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 27) Essendon by 5

Round 16

Collingwood (89) defeated Richmond (49) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 40) Collingwood by 27
Melbourne (67) lost to Hawthorn (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 26) Melbourne by 5
North Melbourne (99) defeated Port Adelaide (70) at Princes Park (VIC) [North Melbourne by 29) Port Adelaide by 20
Essendon (56) lost to Geelong (95) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 39) Essendon by 2
Fremantle (100) defeated West Coast (70) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 30) West Coast by 4
Brisbane Lions (117) defeated Sydney (79) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 38) Brisbane Lions by 25
Carlton (97) lost to St Kilda (140) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 43) Carlton by 7
Adelaide (138) defeated Western Bulldogs (95) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 43) Adelaide by 12

Round 17

Richmond (53) lost to Essendon (54) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 1) Essendon by 19
Hawthorn (68) lost to Brisbane Lions (124) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 56) Brisbane Lions by 16
West Coast (114) defeated Collingwood (56) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 58) Collingwood by 11
Sydney (92) defeated Carlton (69) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 23) Sydney by 33
Port Adelaide (116) defeated Melbourne (112) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 4) Port Adelaide by 39
Geelong (90) lost to Adelaide (93) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Adelaide by 3) Geelong by 18
Western Bulldogs (139) defeated North Melbourne (105) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 34) North Melbourne by 1
St Kilda (118) defeated Fremantle (79) at Princes Park (VIC) [St Kilda by 39) Fremantle by 4

Round 18

Collingwood (141) defeated Carlton (33) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 108) Collingwood by 23
Geelong (51) lost to North Melbourne (115) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [North Melbourne by 64) Geelong by 21
Fremantle (96) defeated Hawthorn (35) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 61) Fremantle by 10
Essendon (71) lost to Brisbane Lions (108) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 37) Brisbane Lions by 13
Port Adelaide (105) defeated St Kilda (63) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 42) Port Adelaide by 49
Sydney (98) lost to Adelaide (116) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Adelaide by 18) Sydney by 11
Western Bulldogs (142) defeated West Coast (91) at Princes Park (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 51) Western Bulldogs by 17
Melbourne (94) lost to Richmond (99) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 5) Melbourne by 15

Round 19

Hawthorn (105) defeated Collingwood (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 8) Collingwood by 24
Carlton (45) lost to Port Adelaide (54) at Princes Park (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 9) Port Adelaide by 29
Richmond (122) defeated Fremantle (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 50) Richmond by 2
Brisbane Lions (105) defeated Western Bulldogs (67) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 38) Brisbane Lions by 35
North Melbourne (97) lost to Sydney (144) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 47) Sydney by 0
Adelaide (124) defeated Essendon (76) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 48) Adelaide by 21
St Kilda (101) lost to Geelong (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 1) Geelong by 17
West Coast (100) lost to Melbourne (106) at Subiaco (WA) [Melbourne by 6) West Coast by 8

Round 20

Richmond (107) defeated Hawthorn (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 14) Hawthorn by 3
North Melbourne (114) defeated Carlton (95) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 19) North Melbourne by 25
Fremantle (117) defeated Geelong (72) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 45) Fremantle by 0
Essendon (126) defeated Collingwood (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 55) Collingwood by 14
Brisbane Lions (136) defeated West Coast (89) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 47) Brisbane Lions by 49
Sydney (87) defeated St Kilda (80) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 7) Sydney by 31
Melbourne (107) defeated Western Bulldogs (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 12) Western Bulldogs by 7
Port Adelaide (84) defeated Adelaide (76) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 8) Port Adelaide by 8

Round 21

Hawthorn (104) lost to North Melbourne (119) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 15) North Melbourne by 14
Geelong (55) lost to Brisbane Lions (110) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Brisbane Lions by 55) Brisbane Lions by 12
Melbourne (77) lost to Sydney (145) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 68) Melbourne by 4
Western Bulldogs (97) lost to Carlton (99) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 2) Western Bulldogs by 24
West Coast (65) lost to Port Adelaide (103) at Subiaco (WA) [Port Adelaide by 38) Port Adelaide by 13
Collingwood (77) defeated St Kilda (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 11) Collingwood by 25
Essendon (93) defeated Fremantle (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 21) Essendon by 14
Adelaide (87) defeated Richmond (65) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 22) Adelaide by 32

Round 22

Geelong (57) lost to Hawthorn (75) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 18) Geelong by 4
Collingwood (73) lost to Western Bulldogs (114) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 41) Collingwood by 9
Port Adelaide (90) defeated Brisbane Lions (84) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 6) Port Adelaide by 5
St Kilda (117) lost to Melbourne (135) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 18) Melbourne by 9
Sydney (116) defeated Richmond (76) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 40) Sydney by 28
North Melbourne (126) lost to West Coast (143) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [West Coast by 17) North Melbourne by 28
Carlton (37) lost to Essendon (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 55) Essendon by 19
Fremantle (80) lost to Adelaide (120) at Subiaco (WA) [Adelaide by 40) Adelaide by 1

Qualifying Final

Port Adelaide (95) lost to Collingwood (108) at Football Park (SA) [Collingwood by 13) Port Adelaide by 25
Essendon (111) defeated West Coast (78) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 33) Essendon by 24
Brisbane Lions (115) defeated Adelaide (44) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 71) Brisbane Lions by 29
Melbourne (122) defeated North Melbourne (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 38) North Melbourne by 9

Semi Final

Port Adelaide (83) defeated Essendon (59) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 24) Port Adelaide by 22
Adelaide (130) defeated Melbourne (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 12) Adelaide by 2

Preliminary Final

Collingwood (91) defeated Adelaide (63) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 28) Collingwood by 10
Brisbane Lions (138) defeated Port Adelaide (82) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 56) Brisbane Lions by 21

Grand Final

Collingwood (66) lost to Brisbane Lions (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 9) Brisbane Lions by 10

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SKILL

90%

LUCK

10%

Open Door

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Brisbane Lions	71.0	64.9	68.0
2	Port Adelaide	62.0	63.3	62.7
3	Collingwood	58.6	62.8	60.7
4	Adelaide	61.3	56.6	58.9
5	Sydney	59.3	58.5	58.9
6	Essendon	56.0	61.5	58.8
7	Western Bulldogs	66.1	50.9	58.5
8	North Melbourne	63.5	52.8	58.2
9	Melbourne	65.4	49.4	57.4
10	Geelong	52.2	59.3	55.7
11	Hawthorn	53.1	55.4	54.2
12	West Coast	57.7	50.6	54.2
13	Fremantle	54.0	54.4	54.2
14	Richmond	52.3	54.5	53.4
15	St Kilda	51.6	53.1	52.4
16	Carlton	48.0	52.0	50.0