INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

• They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.

• They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.

• They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).

• They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

• Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.

• Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

• Scores, obviously.

• Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.

• Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.

• Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.

• Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.

• Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

• Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.

• Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

• Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.

• Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.

• Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.

• Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.

• The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

• Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.

• Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.

• Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

• Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.

• Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.

• Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Wed Jun 13 10:40:51 2018 (R26)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

In 2000, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 124 games at an accuracy of 67.03%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 1

Richmond (94) defeated Melbourne (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 2) Richmond by 12
Essendon (156) defeated Port Adelaide (62) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 94) Essendon by 29
North Melbourne (111) lost to West Coast (154) at M.C.G. (VIC) [West Coast by 43) North Melbourne by 25
Adelaide (108) lost to Western Bulldogs (131) at Football Park (SA) [Western Bulldogs by 23) Western Bulldogs by 13
Fremantle (107) lost to Geelong (129) at Subiaco (WA) [Geelong by 22) Fremantle by 5
St Kilda (100) lost to Sydney (134) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 34) St Kilda by 5
Carlton (152) defeated Brisbane Lions (112) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 40) Brisbane Lions by 10
Hawthorn (86) lost to Collingwood (140) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 54) Hawthorn by 10

Round 2

Essendon (130) defeated Richmond (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 43) Essendon by 35
Melbourne (145) defeated North Melbourne (120) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 25) North Melbourne by 26
Geelong (139) defeated St Kilda (99) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 40) Geelong by 14
Port Adelaide (87) lost to Fremantle (125) at Football Park (SA) [Fremantle by 38) Port Adelaide by 18
Collingwood (103) defeated Adelaide (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 11) Collingwood by 23
Carlton (154) defeated Hawthorn (112) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 42) Carlton by 40
Western Bulldogs (110) lost to Brisbane Lions (139) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 29) Brisbane Lions by 9
West Coast (70) lost to Sydney (82) at Subiaco (WA) [Sydney by 12) West Coast by 14

Round 3

Richmond (134) lost to North Melbourne (170) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 36) North Melbourne by 14
Hawthorn (110) defeated Brisbane Lions (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 7) Brisbane Lions by 38
Adelaide (100) lost to Geelong (111) at Football Park (SA) [Geelong by 11) Geelong by 6
St Kilda (116) drew with West Coast (116) at Docklands (VIC) [DRAW by 0) West Coast by 7
Collingwood (160) defeated Carlton (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 73) Carlton by 28
Western Bulldogs (141) defeated Port Adelaide (94) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 47) Western Bulldogs by 28
Sydney (126) defeated Melbourne (114) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 12) Sydney by 33
Fremantle (88) lost to Essendon (124) at Subiaco (WA) [Essendon by 36) Essendon by 28

Round 4

North Melbourne (104) defeated Geelong (99) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 5) North Melbourne by 12
Western Bulldogs (98) defeated Carlton (59) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 39) Carlton by 14
Hawthorn (90) lost to Essendon (137) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 47) Essendon by 34
Sydney (101) lost to Collingwood (106) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Collingwood by 5) Sydney by 10
West Coast (187) defeated Adelaide (73) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [West Coast by 114) West Coast by 27
Port Adelaide (149) defeated Brisbane Lions (106) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 43) Brisbane Lions by 24
Richmond (87) lost to Fremantle (88) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 1) Richmond by 12
Melbourne (165) defeated St Kilda (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 90) Melbourne by 5

Round 5

Western Bulldogs (110) lost to Collingwood (118) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 8) Western Bulldogs by 3
Essendon (123) defeated Carlton (99) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 24) Essendon by 13
Brisbane Lions (122) defeated Adelaide (92) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 30) Brisbane Lions by 46
Fremantle (75) lost to Melbourne (106) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [Melbourne by 31) Fremantle by 2
Geelong (162) defeated West Coast (81) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 81) West Coast by 1
North Melbourne (128) defeated Sydney (120) at S.C.G. (NSW) [North Melbourne by 8) Sydney by 8
St Kilda (84) lost to Richmond (110) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 26) Richmond by 8
Port Adelaide (74) lost to Hawthorn (113) at Football Park (SA) [Hawthorn by 39) Port Adelaide by 13

Round 6

Western Bulldogs (81) lost to Essendon (144) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 63) Essendon by 12
Carlton (169) defeated Port Adelaide (78) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 91) Carlton by 35
Collingwood (82) lost to North Melbourne (114) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 32) Collingwood by 5
St Kilda (66) lost to Brisbane Lions (105) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 39) Brisbane Lions by 26
West Coast (178) defeated Fremantle (61) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 117) West Coast by 16
Geelong (109) defeated Melbourne (84) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 25) Geelong by 11
Sydney (106) lost to Richmond (112) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Richmond by 6) Sydney by 25
Adelaide (143) defeated Hawthorn (57) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 86) Adelaide by 1

Round 7

Hawthorn (123) defeated Western Bulldogs (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 31) Western Bulldogs by 23
Sydney (99) lost to Geelong (108) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Geelong by 9) Sydney by 2
St Kilda (117) lost to North Melbourne (129) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 12) North Melbourne by 31
Port Adelaide (91) lost to Adelaide (98) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 7) Adelaide by 12
Melbourne (138) defeated West Coast (77) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 61) West Coast by 4
Richmond (69) lost to Carlton (120) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 51) Carlton by 24
Collingwood (100) lost to Essendon (140) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 40) Essendon by 20
Fremantle (111) defeated Brisbane Lions (100) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 11) Brisbane Lions by 24

Round 8

North Melbourne (67) lost to Hawthorn (128) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 61) North Melbourne by 20
St Kilda (68) lost to Adelaide (108) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 40) Adelaide by 2
West Coast (108) defeated Western Bulldogs (102) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [West Coast by 6) West Coast by 15
Port Adelaide (86) lost to Melbourne (111) at Football Park (SA) [Melbourne by 25) Melbourne by 20
Carlton (109) defeated Sydney (64) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 45) Carlton by 28
Geelong (77) lost to Richmond (147) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 70) Geelong by 15
Collingwood (85) lost to Fremantle (107) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 22) Collingwood by 33
Brisbane Lions (63) lost to Essendon (127) at Gabba (QLD) [Essendon by 64) Essendon by 8

Round 9

Western Bulldogs (105) defeated St Kilda (104) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 1) Western Bulldogs by 27
Hawthorn (98) defeated Geelong (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 25) Geelong by 0
Adelaide (125) lost to North Melbourne (128) at Football Park (SA) [North Melbourne by 3) Adelaide by 8
Richmond (79) defeated West Coast (70) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 9) West Coast by 5
Melbourne (93) lost to Essendon (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 13) Essendon by 27
Sydney (111) defeated Port Adelaide (85) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 26) Sydney by 27
Brisbane Lions (146) defeated Collingwood (117) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 29) Brisbane Lions by 15
Fremantle (82) lost to Carlton (147) at Subiaco (WA) [Carlton by 65) Carlton by 18

Round 10

West Coast (118) defeated Hawthorn (88) at Subiaco (WA) [West Coast by 30) West Coast by 15
Richmond (102) defeated Collingwood (54) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 48) Collingwood by 6
Port Adelaide (78) drew with Geelong (78) at Football Park (SA) [DRAW by 0) Geelong by 8
St Kilda (82) lost to Carlton (109) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 27) Carlton by 46
Essendon (132) defeated Adelaide (84) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 48) Essendon by 46
Western Bulldogs (137) defeated Sydney (79) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 58) Sydney by 6
North Melbourne (148) defeated Fremantle (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 88) North Melbourne by 28
Melbourne (102) defeated Brisbane Lions (84) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 18) Melbourne by 10

Round 11

St Kilda (117) defeated Port Adelaide (55) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 62) St Kilda by 2
Carlton (129) defeated North Melbourne (99) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 30) Carlton by 19
Hawthorn (77) lost to Richmond (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 3) Richmond by 3
Geelong (87) lost to Essendon (145) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 58) Essendon by 41
Fremantle (81) lost to Western Bulldogs (174) at Subiaco (WA) [Western Bulldogs by 93) Western Bulldogs by 14
Collingwood (92) lost to West Coast (128) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 36) West Coast by 3
Adelaide (105) defeated Melbourne (70) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 35) Melbourne by 2
Sydney (107) lost to Brisbane Lions (110) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 3) Brisbane Lions by 5

Round 12

Essendon (169) defeated St Kilda (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 86) Essendon by 45
Collingwood (67) lost to Geelong (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 4) Collingwood by 3
Adelaide (98) defeated Sydney (48) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 50) Adelaide by 19
Hawthorn (121) defeated Fremantle (62) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 59) Hawthorn by 27
Brisbane Lions (99) lost to Richmond (111) at Gabba (QLD) [Richmond by 12) Brisbane Lions by 18
Western Bulldogs (108) defeated Melbourne (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 25) Western Bulldogs by 3
North Melbourne (76) defeated Port Adelaide (59) at S.C.G. (NSW) [North Melbourne by 17) North Melbourne by 29
West Coast (78) lost to Carlton (128) at Subiaco (WA) [Carlton by 50) Carlton by 2

Round 13

Richmond (112) lost to Adelaide (121) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 9) Richmond by 6
Melbourne (61) lost to Carlton (159) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 98) Carlton by 18
Port Adelaide (89) defeated Collingwood (75) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 14) Collingwood by 2
Brisbane Lions (173) defeated West Coast (89) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 84) Brisbane Lions by 10
Essendon (119) defeated North Melbourne (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 49) Essendon by 32
Geelong (126) defeated Western Bulldogs (119) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 7) Western Bulldogs by 20
Sydney (109) defeated Hawthorn (78) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 31) Sydney by 2
Fremantle (100) defeated St Kilda (56) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 44) Fremantle by 3

Round 14

North Melbourne (116) defeated Brisbane Lions (112) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 4) North Melbourne by 0
Melbourne (143) defeated Collingwood (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 65) Melbourne by 8
West Coast (71) lost to Port Adelaide (107) at Subiaco (WA) [Port Adelaide by 36) West Coast by 31
Carlton (107) defeated Geelong (97) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 10) Carlton by 36
Sydney (76) lost to Essendon (89) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Essendon by 13) Essendon by 36
St Kilda (86) lost to Hawthorn (171) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 85) Hawthorn by 15
Adelaide (145) defeated Fremantle (72) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 73) Adelaide by 35
Richmond (87) defeated Western Bulldogs (52) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 35) Western Bulldogs by 10

Round 15

Collingwood (115) defeated St Kilda (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 33) Collingwood by 14
Carlton (120) defeated Adelaide (96) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 24) Carlton by 29
Geelong (59) lost to Brisbane Lions (128) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Brisbane Lions by 69) Geelong by 5
Hawthorn (72) lost to Melbourne (141) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 69) Melbourne by 7
Essendon (108) defeated West Coast (76) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 32) Essendon by 46
Western Bulldogs (106) defeated North Melbourne (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 4) Western Bulldogs by 5
Port Adelaide (103) defeated Richmond (75) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 28) Richmond by 2
Fremantle (123) defeated Sydney (96) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 27) Fremantle by 1

Round 16

Collingwood (68) lost to Hawthorn (125) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 57) Hawthorn by 5
Geelong (90) defeated Fremantle (84) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 6) Geelong by 30
Melbourne (110) defeated Richmond (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 10) Melbourne by 6
Sydney (93) defeated St Kilda (65) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 28) Sydney by 26
Port Adelaide (58) lost to Essendon (89) at Football Park (SA) [Essendon by 31) Essendon by 30
Western Bulldogs (135) defeated Adelaide (74) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 61) Western Bulldogs by 4
Brisbane Lions (112) lost to Carlton (156) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 44) Carlton by 3
West Coast (52) lost to North Melbourne (113) at Subiaco (WA) [North Melbourne by 61) West Coast by 8

Round 17

St Kilda (109) defeated Geelong (85) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 24) Geelong by 17
Richmond (66) lost to Essendon (167) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 101) Essendon by 32
North Melbourne (103) defeated Melbourne (102) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 1) North Melbourne by 4
Fremantle (82) defeated Port Adelaide (64) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [Fremantle by 18) Port Adelaide by 0
Hawthorn (63) lost to Carlton (120) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 57) Carlton by 29
Sydney (151) defeated West Coast (80) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 71) Sydney by 8
Brisbane Lions (138) defeated Western Bulldogs (81) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 57) Brisbane Lions by 11
Adelaide (147) defeated Collingwood (109) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 38) Adelaide by 31

Round 18

Essendon (159) defeated Fremantle (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 87) Essendon by 70
Geelong (109) defeated Adelaide (102) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 7) Adelaide by 3
Melbourne (125) defeated Sydney (99) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 26) Melbourne by 22
North Melbourne (134) defeated Richmond (56) at S.C.G. (NSW) [North Melbourne by 78) North Melbourne by 16
West Coast (115) defeated St Kilda (29) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [West Coast by 86) West Coast by 22
Carlton (180) defeated Collingwood (69) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 111) Carlton by 46
Port Adelaide (149) defeated Western Bulldogs (106) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 43) Western Bulldogs by 2
Brisbane Lions (106) lost to Hawthorn (124) at Gabba (QLD) [Hawthorn by 18) Brisbane Lions by 24

Round 19

Geelong (85) lost to North Melbourne (124) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 39) North Melbourne by 28
Adelaide (107) defeated West Coast (90) at Football Park (SA) [Adelaide by 17) Adelaide by 20
Carlton (72) lost to Western Bulldogs (75) at Princes Park (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 3) Carlton by 31
Essendon (165) defeated Hawthorn (82) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 83) Essendon by 40
Collingwood (84) lost to Sydney (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 20) Sydney by 0
St Kilda (98) lost to Melbourne (116) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 18) Melbourne by 33
Brisbane Lions (120) defeated Port Adelaide (53) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 67) Brisbane Lions by 25
Fremantle (79) lost to Richmond (106) at W.A.C.A. (WA) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 3

Round 20

Carlton (83) lost to Essendon (109) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 26) Essendon by 15
Hawthorn (101) defeated Port Adelaide (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 21) Hawthorn by 14
Collingwood (91) lost to Western Bulldogs (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 9) Western Bulldogs by 25
Sydney (145) defeated North Melbourne (91) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 54) North Melbourne by 10
West Coast (78) lost to Geelong (108) at Subiaco (WA) [Geelong by 30) West Coast by 21
Adelaide (78) lost to Brisbane Lions (115) at Football Park (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 37) Adelaide by 9
Melbourne (160) defeated Fremantle (77) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 83) Melbourne by 38
Richmond (119) defeated St Kilda (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 40) Richmond by 22

Round 21

Essendon (81) lost to Western Bulldogs (92) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 11) Essendon by 38
Hawthorn (98) defeated Adelaide (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 31) Hawthorn by 2
Richmond (83) lost to Sydney (84) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 1) Richmond by 5
Brisbane Lions (153) defeated St Kilda (63) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 90) Brisbane Lions by 52
Port Adelaide (88) defeated Carlton (83) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 5) Carlton by 24
North Melbourne (80) lost to Collingwood (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 18) North Melbourne by 26
Melbourne (126) defeated Geelong (108) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 18) Melbourne by 15
Fremantle (101) defeated West Coast (100) at Subiaco (WA) [Fremantle by 1) West Coast by 19

Round 22

Western Bulldogs (66) lost to Hawthorn (81) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 15) Western Bulldogs by 10
Essendon (97) defeated Collingwood (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 19) Essendon by 55
Geelong (124) defeated Sydney (120) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 4) Geelong by 5
Brisbane Lions (156) defeated Fremantle (49) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 107) Brisbane Lions by 52
North Melbourne (120) defeated St Kilda (77) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 43) North Melbourne by 35
Carlton (125) defeated Richmond (52) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 73) Carlton by 27
Adelaide (92) lost to Port Adelaide (139) at Football Park (SA) [Port Adelaide by 47) Adelaide by 9
West Coast (100) lost to Melbourne (170) at Subiaco (WA) [Melbourne by 70) Melbourne by 4

Elimination Final

Geelong (83) lost to Hawthorn (92) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 9) Hawthorn by 11
Essendon (198) defeated North Melbourne (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 125) Essendon by 35
Brisbane Lions (110) defeated Western Bulldogs (76) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 34) Brisbane Lions by 20
Carlton (87) lost to Melbourne (96) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 9) Carlton by 19

Semi Final

North Melbourne (110) defeated Hawthorn (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 10) North Melbourne by 1
Carlton (151) defeated Brisbane Lions (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 82) Carlton by 19

Preliminary Final

Melbourne (156) defeated North Melbourne (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 50) Melbourne by 9
Essendon (125) defeated Carlton (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 45) Essendon by 12

Grand Final

Essendon (135) defeated Melbourne (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 60) Essendon by 36

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SKILL

90%

LUCK

10%

Open Door

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Essendon	78.9	69.5	74.2
2	Carlton	67.5	64.3	65.9
3	Melbourne	67.4	53.9	60.6
4	Brisbane Lions	67.1	54.0	60.6
5	Western Bulldogs	59.2	57.0	58.1
6	Sydney	58.8	53.9	56.4
7	Hawthorn	56.2	56.3	56.3
8	Adelaide	60.3	51.8	56.0
9	North Melbourne	61.8	50.3	56.0
10	Port Adelaide	55.5	55.9	55.7
11	Geelong	58.3	51.5	54.9
12	Richmond	54.1	54.9	54.5
13	Collingwood	56.6	49.9	53.2
14	West Coast	54.5	51.2	52.8
15	St Kilda	49.0	48.1	48.5
16	Fremantle	49.6	46.7	48.2