Squiggle 2020

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011
Squiggle v1	61.4%	69.1%	70.9%	72.0%	72.5%	77.8%	77.6%
Squiggle 2.0*	64.7%	74.9%	73.8%	72.0%	73.0%	73.4%	77.0%
Squiggle 4*	65.7%	73.4%	73.8%	73.4%	74.4%	73.9%	77.6%

* Squiggle 2.0 and Squiggle 4 numbers before 2018 are "retro-dictions"—they were made after the result. This shows how well the model fits historical data, rather than how reliable its predictions have been in practice.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		Wins	%
1	Richmond	16.2	140.0%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
2	Geelong	13.5	119.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
3	Hawthorn	13.6	118.5%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
4	Western Bulldogs	13.5	116.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
5	Collingwood	12.7	112.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
6	Port Adelaide	12.2	108.4%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
7	Brisbane Lions	12.0	107.4%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
8	Greater Western Sydney	11.8	106.4%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
9	West Coast	11.6	104.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
10	Fremantle	11.3	103.3%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
11	North Melbourne	10.5	98.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12	St Kilda	10.1	95.8%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
13	Sydney	9.2	90.4%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
14	Melbourne	9.1	89.8%	3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
15	Carlton	8.9	88.9%	3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
16	Essendon	8.4	86.8%	3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
17	Adelaide	7.9	83.3%	5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
18	Gold Coast	5.5	71.1%	10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 1

Adelaide 80 - 74 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.514478 - 0.485522RealScores: 79.731037 - 74.212468

Essendon 73 - 75 Fremantle
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 73.288750 - 74.917525

Gold Coast 69 - 87 Port Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.382141 - 0.617859RealScores: 69.266963 - 87.231198

Greater Western Sydney 71 - 67 Geelong Geelong
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.503065 - 0.496935RealScores: 71.144807 - 66.901279

Hawthorn 84 - 67 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.612284 - 0.387716RealScores: 83.859053 - 66.613593

North Melbourne 81 - 78 St Kilda
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 80.938448 - 78.035323

Richmond 90 - 59 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.713727 - 0.286273RealScores: 90.151203 - 58.657918

West Coast 92 - 67 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.668895 - 0.331105RealScores: 92.302713 - 67.439453

Western Bulldogs 76 - 74 Collingwood
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 75.946339 - 74.284355

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	1 (0.71)	0	153.7
2	West Coast	1 (0.67)	0	136.9
3	Port Adelaide	1 (0.62)	0	125.9
4	Hawthorn	1 (0.61)	0	125.9
5	Adelaide	1 (0.51)	0	107.4
6	Greater Western Sydney	1 (0.50)	0	106.3
7	North Melbourne	1 (0.50)	0	103.7
8	Western Bulldogs	1 (0.50)	0	102.2
9	Fremantle	1 (0.50)	0	102.2
10	Essendon	0 (0.50)	1	97.8
11	Collingwood	0 (0.50)	1	97.8
12	St Kilda	0 (0.50)	1	96.4
13	Geelong	0 (0.50)	1	94.0
14	Sydney	0 (0.49)	1	93.1
15	Brisbane Lions	0 (0.39)	1	79.4
16	Gold Coast	0 (0.38)	1	79.4
17	Melbourne	0 (0.33)	1	73.1
18	Carlton	0 (0.29)	1	65.1

Round 2

Brisbane Lions 91 - 75 North Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.613223 - 0.386777RealScores: 90.832084 - 75.201247

Carlton Carlton 72 - 90 Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.365797 - 0.634203RealScores: 71.606179 - 89.858317

Collingwood 61 - 76 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.395180 - 0.604820RealScores: 61.360822 - 75.964320

Fremantle 69 - 68 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 68.268950 - 68.027200

Geelong Geelong 99 - 48 Gold Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.841216 - 0.158784RealScores: 99.453023 - 48.320644

Melbourne 71 - 75 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.486004 - 0.513996RealScores: 70.842625 - 75.041391

Port Adelaide 89 - 70 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.639131 - 0.360869RealScores: 88.771170 - 69.891058

St Kilda 81 - 82 West Coast
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 81.653863 - 81.790597

Sydney Sydney 83 - 69 Essendon
S.C.G. (NSW)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.602025 - 0.397975RealScores: 83.043031 - 68.778498

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	1 (1.34)	1	139.2
2	Richmond	1 (1.32)	1	138.4
3	Port Adelaide	1 (1.26)	1	126.5
4	West Coast	1 (1.17)	1	116.8
5	Western Bulldogs	1 (1.13)	1	113.7
6	Hawthorn	1 (1.11)	1	112.6
7	Greater Western Sydney	1 (1.02)	1	106.1
8	Sydney	1 (1.09)	1	105.9
9	Fremantle	1 (1.00)	1	101.3
10	Brisbane Lions	1 (1.00)	1	99.0
11	St Kilda	1 (1.00)	1	98.1
12	North Melbourne	1 (0.89)	1	92.5
13	Adelaide	1 (0.88)	1	91.8
14	Essendon	1 (0.90)	1	89.9
15	Collingwood	1 (0.90)	1	89.3
16	Melbourne	1 (0.82)	1	82.6
17	Carlton	1 (0.65)	1	72.4
18	Gold Coast	1 (0.54)	1	63.0

Round 3

Adelaide 79 - 88 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.440211 - 0.559789RealScores: 79.233521 - 87.753038

Carlton Carlton 79 - 74 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.528265 - 0.471735RealScores: 78.793781 - 73.737613

Gold Coast 72 - 78 Sydney Sydney
Carrara (QLD)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.463231 - 0.536769RealScores: 72.491536 - 78.469493

Greater Western Sydney 79 - 75 Western Bulldogs
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.515086 - 0.484914RealScores: 78.998486 - 75.353283

Hawthorn 67 - 65 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500385 - 0.499615RealScores: 66.604292 - 64.509054

Melbourne 74 - 73 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 73.708263 - 73.296233

North Melbourne 81 - 77 Port Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.520669 - 0.479331RealScores: 81.027382 - 76.786996

St Kilda 62 - 91 Richmond
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.277097 - 0.722903RealScores: 61.678696 - 90.765236

West Coast 77 - 74 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.507333 - 0.492667RealScores: 77.004269 - 74.179624

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	2 (2.04)	1	141.4
2	Geelong	2 (1.83)	1	122.4
3	Port Adelaide	2 (1.74)	1	114.8
4	West Coast	2 (1.68)	1	112.5
5	Hawthorn	2 (1.61)	1	109.6
6	Western Bulldogs	2 (1.62)	1	107.2
7	Sydney	2 (1.62)	1	106.7
8	Greater Western Sydney	2 (1.53)	1	105.7
9	Brisbane Lions	2 (1.56)	1	102.9
10	Fremantle	2 (1.50)	1	100.7
11	North Melbourne	1 (1.41)	2	96.5
12	Collingwood	1 (1.39)	2	91.6
13	Adelaide	1 (1.32)	2	91.3
14	Essendon	1 (1.37)	2	91.2
15	Melbourne	1 (1.32)	2	88.1
16	St Kilda	1 (1.28)	2	87.3
17	Carlton	1 (1.18)	2	82.4
18	Gold Coast	1 (1.00)	2	71.7

Round 4

Brisbane Lions 80 - 72 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.557366 - 0.442634RealScores: 79.758228 - 72.007126

Essendon 71 - 77 Greater Western Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.458041 - 0.541959RealScores: 70.523213 - 76.595501

Fremantle 93 - 55 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.786178 - 0.213822RealScores: 92.985608 - 55.188055

Geelong Geelong 65 - 68 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.489445 - 0.510555RealScores: 65.089307 - 67.829046

North Melbourne 76 - 89 Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.394922 - 0.605078RealScores: 75.810684 - 88.966340

Port Adelaide 87 - 75 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.589566 - 0.410434RealScores: 86.722207 - 75.359708

Richmond 102 - 52 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.85 wins - 0.15 winsRealProbs: 0.851956 - 0.148044RealScores: 101.945086 - 52.302968

St Kilda 81 - 75 Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.541632 - 0.458368RealScores: 80.792676 - 74.755775

Sydney Sydney 80 - 70 Carlton Carlton
S.C.G. (NSW)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.575029 - 0.424971RealScores: 80.077043 - 70.362771

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	3 (2.89)	1	153.3
2	Geelong	2 (2.32)	2	115.6
3	Port Adelaide	2 (2.33)	2	114.9
4	Fremantle	2 (2.29)	2	114.5
5	Western Bulldogs	2 (2.22)	2	109.8
6	Sydney	2 (2.20)	2	108.4
7	Hawthorn	2 (2.12)	2	108.3
8	Greater Western Sydney	2 (2.07)	2	106.4
9	West Coast	2 (2.09)	2	105.3
10	Brisbane Lions	2 (2.12)	2	104.7
11	North Melbourne	2 (1.80)	2	93.5
12	St Kilda	2 (1.82)	2	92.1
13	Essendon	2 (1.83)	2	91.4
14	Collingwood	2 (1.84)	2	91.2
15	Melbourne	2 (1.78)	2	89.2
16	Carlton	2 (1.61)	2	83.7
17	Adelaide	1 (1.46)	3	79.7
18	Gold Coast	1 (1.22)	3	68.5

Round 5

Adelaide 82 - 74 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.562976 - 0.437024RealScores: 81.958849 - 73.943581

Collingwood 79 - 65 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.620423 - 0.379577RealScores: 79.408636 - 64.873514

Geelong Geelong 87 - 61 St Kilda
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.711982 - 0.288018RealScores: 87.153004 - 61.049134

Gold Coast 73 - 79 Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.454597 - 0.545403RealScores: 72.808945 - 78.920045

Hawthorn 79 - 62 Carlton Carlton
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.641147 - 0.358853RealScores: 79.057876 - 62.045251

North Melbourne 78 - 72 Fremantle
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.545147 - 0.454853RealScores: 78.060294 - 71.976663

Sydney Sydney 68 - 77 Greater Western Sydney
S.C.G. (NSW)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.430790 - 0.569210RealScores: 68.115382 - 76.815730

West Coast 73 - 82 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.427910 - 0.572090RealScores: 72.970893 - 81.989364

Western Bulldogs 94 - 78 Brisbane Lions
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.633141 - 0.366859RealScores: 94.194632 - 78.147780

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	3 (3.47)	2	143.6
2	Geelong	3 (3.03)	2	120.7
3	Western Bulldogs	3 (2.86)	2	112.0
4	Hawthorn	3 (2.76)	2	111.9
5	Fremantle	3 (2.74)	2	109.5
6	Port Adelaide	3 (2.71)	2	107.8
7	Greater Western Sydney	3 (2.64)	2	107.6
8	Sydney	3 (2.63)	2	104.3
9	West Coast	3 (2.51)	2	101.9
10	Brisbane Lions	2 (2.48)	3	99.7
11	Collingwood	2 (2.46)	3	96.8
12	North Melbourne	2 (2.35)	3	96.2
13	Melbourne	2 (2.32)	3	92.8
14	Essendon	2 (2.26)	3	91.1
15	St Kilda	2 (2.11)	3	87.4
16	Adelaide	2 (2.03)	3	85.1
17	Carlton	2 (1.96)	3	82.7
18	Gold Coast	2 (1.67)	3	72.8

Round 6

Brisbane Lions 93 - 69 Sydney Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.705957 - 0.294043RealScores: 93.365288 - 68.506898

Carlton Carlton 76 - 79 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.477818 - 0.522182RealScores: 75.697051 - 79.129121

Collingwood 82 - 62 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.669184 - 0.330816RealScores: 81.972039 - 61.861376

Fremantle 69 - 70 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 69.480051 - 70.120886

Greater Western Sydney 94 - 53 Gold Coast
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.813852 - 0.186148RealScores: 94.208520 - 53.260953

Hawthorn 82 - 66 West Coast
York Park (TAS)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.638358 - 0.361642RealScores: 81.966761 - 65.629181

Melbourne 58 - 92 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.23 wins - 0.77 winsRealProbs: 0.229635 - 0.770365RealScores: 57.865487 - 91.855909

Port Adelaide 84 - 80 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.523422 - 0.476578RealScores: 83.708110 - 80.147394

St Kilda 90 - 69 Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.674772 - 0.325228RealScores: 89.955299 - 69.141558

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	4 (4.24)	2	146.0
2	Geelong	4 (3.53)	2	117.2
3	Greater Western Sydney	3 (3.46)	3	116.7
4	Hawthorn	3 (3.40)	3	114.1
5	Western Bulldogs	3 (3.33)	3	109.1
6	Fremantle	3 (3.24)	3	107.8
7	Port Adelaide	3 (3.23)	3	107.2
8	Brisbane Lions	3 (3.19)	3	105.0
9	Collingwood	3 (3.13)	3	102.0
10	West Coast	3 (2.88)	3	98.1
11	Sydney	3 (2.92)	3	98.0
12	North Melbourne	3 (2.87)	3	97.5
13	St Kilda	3 (2.78)	3	93.5
14	Essendon	3 (2.60)	3	88.4
15	Melbourne	3 (2.55)	3	87.1
16	Carlton	2 (2.44)	4	84.8
17	Adelaide	2 (2.35)	4	83.7
18	Gold Coast	2 (1.86)	4	69.9

Round 7

Collingwood 79 - 67 St Kilda
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.604984 - 0.395016RealScores: 78.962999 - 66.749166

Essendon 75 - 78 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.486572 - 0.513428RealScores: 75.168792 - 77.544706

Geelong Geelong 88 - 66 Brisbane Lions
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.687851 - 0.312149RealScores: 88.156607 - 65.975318

Gold Coast 77 - 78 Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 76.874823 - 77.362004

Port Adelaide 88 - 66 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.684428 - 0.315572RealScores: 88.045170 - 66.300700

Richmond 85 - 57 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.732697 - 0.267303RealScores: 84.815449 - 56.666741

Sydney Sydney 80 - 74 North Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.542515 - 0.457485RealScores: 79.825092 - 74.434471

West Coast 79 - 75 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.529035 - 0.470965RealScores: 79.078877 - 75.097138

Western Bulldogs 74 - 75 Hawthorn
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.498985 - 0.501015RealScores: 73.805135 - 74.922443

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	5 (4.97)	2	146.5
2	Geelong	4 (4.22)	3	119.6
3	Hawthorn	4 (3.90)	3	112.1
4	Port Adelaide	4 (3.91)	3	110.5
5	Greater Western Sydney	4 (3.72)	3	108.1
6	Western Bulldogs	4 (3.83)	3	107.6
7	Fremantle	4 (3.71)	3	105.7
8	Collingwood	4 (3.73)	3	104.2
9	Brisbane Lions	4 (3.50)	3	100.2
10	Sydney	3 (3.47)	4	99.3
11	West Coast	3 (3.41)	4	99.1
12	North Melbourne	3 (3.33)	4	96.9
13	St Kilda	3 (3.18)	4	92.3
14	Essendon	3 (3.08)	4	89.6
15	Melbourne	3 (3.06)	4	89.3
16	Adelaide	3 (2.85)	4	85.9
17	Carlton	3 (2.76)	4	83.3
18	Gold Coast	2 (2.36)	5	73.6

Round 8

Adelaide 74 - 77 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.477095 - 0.522905RealScores: 73.629493 - 76.865334

Brisbane Lions 74 - 84 Richmond
Gabba (QLD)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.419755 - 0.580245RealScores: 74.317766 - 83.621596

Geelong Geelong 83 - 63 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.672176 - 0.327824RealScores: 83.239612 - 63.254177

Greater Western Sydney 72 - 64 Collingwood
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.564590 - 0.435410RealScores: 71.762272 - 64.154618

Melbourne 75 - 79 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.471063 - 0.528937RealScores: 75.491638 - 79.347775

North Melbourne 65 - 78 Hawthorn
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.386501 - 0.613499RealScores: 65.452165 - 78.468510

St Kilda 79 - 76 Carlton Carlton
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.517925 - 0.482075RealScores: 78.966142 - 76.239474

West Coast 92 - 67 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.707031 - 0.292969RealScores: 91.564175 - 67.135854

Western Bulldogs 107 - 57 Gold Coast
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.87 wins - 0.13 winsRealProbs: 0.869349 - 0.130651RealScores: 107.458810 - 57.391902

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	6 (5.55)	2	141.4
2	Geelong	5 (4.89)	3	121.0
3	Western Bulldogs	5 (4.70)	3	115.3
4	Hawthorn	5 (4.52)	3	113.0
5	Port Adelaide	4 (4.44)	4	109.8
6	Greater Western Sydney	4 (4.29)	4	108.5
7	Fremantle	4 (4.23)	4	105.6
8	West Coast	4 (4.11)	4	103.2
9	Collingwood	4 (4.17)	4	102.3
10	Brisbane Lions	4 (3.92)	4	98.8
11	Sydney	4 (3.76)	4	95.5
12	North Melbourne	4 (3.71)	4	95.2
13	St Kilda	4 (3.69)	4	93.6
14	Melbourne	4 (3.54)	4	90.0
15	Essendon	3 (3.41)	5	87.9
16	Adelaide	3 (3.33)	5	87.0
17	Carlton	3 (3.24)	5	84.9
18	Gold Coast	2 (2.49)	6	70.6

Round 9

Carlton Carlton 63 - 79 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.367064 - 0.632936RealScores: 63.447090 - 78.575659

Fremantle 78 - 79 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 77.847605 - 78.198166

Gold Coast 71 - 90 West Coast
Carrara (QLD)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.331836 - 0.668164RealScores: 71.061847 - 90.395407

Greater Western Sydney 84 - 65 St Kilda
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.668943 - 0.331057RealScores: 84.344127 - 64.915074

Hawthorn 84 - 57 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.732532 - 0.267468RealScores: 84.200846 - 56.556508

Melbourne 81 - 74 Adelaide
Traeger Park (NT)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.566612 - 0.433388RealScores: 81.272734 - 73.543221

North Melbourne 83 - 73 Essendon
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.588841 - 0.411159RealScores: 83.329486 - 73.187956

Port Adelaide 88 - 77 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.597088 - 0.402912RealScores: 88.165739 - 77.112663

Richmond 77 - 62 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.629950 - 0.370050RealScores: 76.845082 - 62.063425

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	6 (6.18)	3	139.4
2	Hawthorn	5 (5.25)	4	116.5
3	Geelong	5 (5.26)	4	115.9
4	Western Bulldogs	5 (5.20)	4	113.6
5	Greater Western Sydney	5 (4.96)	4	110.8
6	Port Adelaide	5 (5.04)	4	110.3
7	West Coast	5 (4.78)	4	105.7
8	Fremantle	5 (4.73)	4	104.8
9	Collingwood	5 (4.80)	4	104.5
10	Brisbane Lions	4 (4.33)	5	97.4
11	North Melbourne	4 (4.30)	5	97.1
12	Sydney	4 (4.03)	5	92.2
13	Melbourne	4 (4.10)	5	92.1
14	St Kilda	4 (4.03)	5	91.7
15	Essendon	4 (3.82)	5	87.8
16	Adelaide	4 (3.76)	5	87.4
17	Carlton	4 (3.61)	5	84.5
18	Gold Coast	3 (2.82)	6	71.5

Round 10

Adelaide 79 - 76 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.514936 - 0.485064RealScores: 78.518312 - 76.206107

Brisbane Lions 100 - 64 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.792780 - 0.207220RealScores: 100.474360 - 64.281800

Collingwood 77 - 68 North Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.584324 - 0.415676RealScores: 77.306562 - 67.728507

Essendon 57 - 94 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.21 wins - 0.79 winsRealProbs: 0.206530 - 0.793470RealScores: 57.463398 - 93.762556

Hawthorn 80 - 64 Port Adelaide
York Park (TAS)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.641498 - 0.358502RealScores: 79.552728 - 63.517495

Melbourne 71 - 91 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.330283 - 0.669717RealScores: 71.370660 - 90.783106

St Kilda 78 - 73 Fremantle
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.544295 - 0.455705RealScores: 77.928293 - 72.609749

Sydney Sydney 68 - 76 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.434917 - 0.565083RealScores: 68.322644 - 75.828719

West Coast 83 - 70 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.610187 - 0.389813RealScores: 82.565630 - 70.125509

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	7 (6.97)	3	141.7
2	Hawthorn	6 (5.89)	4	117.3
3	Geelong	6 (5.83)	4	115.4
4	Western Bulldogs	6 (5.87)	4	114.9
5	Greater Western Sydney	5 (5.35)	5	107.7
6	Port Adelaide	5 (5.40)	5	107.1
7	West Coast	5 (5.39)	5	106.8
8	Collingwood	5 (5.38)	5	105.4
9	Fremantle	5 (5.19)	5	103.6
10	Brisbane Lions	5 (5.12)	5	102.1
11	North Melbourne	5 (4.72)	5	96.2
12	St Kilda	5 (4.57)	5	93.1
13	Sydney	4 (4.46)	6	92.0
14	Melbourne	4 (4.43)	6	90.6
15	Adelaide	4 (4.28)	6	88.8
16	Carlton	4 (4.09)	6	85.7
17	Essendon	4 (4.03)	6	84.8
18	Gold Coast	3 (3.03)	7	70.7

Round 11

Collingwood 82 - 67 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.625753 - 0.374247RealScores: 81.501250 - 67.345923

Essendon 89 - 63 Gold Coast
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.720916 - 0.279084RealScores: 89.242382 - 63.410975

Fremantle 83 - 74 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.572653 - 0.427347RealScores: 82.756251 - 74.473220

Geelong Geelong 85 - 62 North Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.697081 - 0.302919RealScores: 85.076033 - 62.334614

Greater Western Sydney 90 - 59 Adelaide
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.760269 - 0.239731RealScores: 90.364598 - 59.128897

Hawthorn 81 - 61 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.674519 - 0.325481RealScores: 80.836929 - 60.910839

Richmond 95 - 54 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.821080 - 0.178920RealScores: 94.569690 - 54.026530

St Kilda 75 - 83 Port Adelaide
Jiangwan Stadium (CHI)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.426943 - 0.573057RealScores: 75.051459 - 83.377762

Western Bulldogs 90 - 72 Carlton Carlton
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.660903 - 0.339097RealScores: 89.869178 - 71.595319

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	8 (7.79)	3	144.4
2	Hawthorn	7 (6.57)	4	118.7
3	Geelong	7 (6.52)	4	117.2
4	Western Bulldogs	7 (6.53)	4	115.8
5	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.11)	5	111.2
6	Port Adelaide	6 (5.97)	5	107.5
7	Collingwood	6 (6.01)	5	106.8
8	West Coast	6 (5.76)	5	104.4
9	Fremantle	6 (5.76)	5	104.3
10	Brisbane Lions	6 (5.55)	5	101.0
11	North Melbourne	5 (5.02)	6	94.0
12	St Kilda	5 (5.00)	6	92.8
13	Melbourne	5 (4.76)	6	89.2
14	Essendon	5 (4.75)	6	88.8
15	Sydney	5 (4.64)	6	88.2
16	Adelaide	5 (4.52)	6	86.5
17	Carlton	4 (4.43)	7	85.1
18	Gold Coast	3 (3.31)	8	70.7

Round 12

Adelaide 75 - 92 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.349669 - 0.650331RealScores: 74.752212 - 91.733967

Carlton Carlton 72 - 73 Greater Western Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.495414 - 0.504586RealScores: 72.068781 - 73.346168

Gold Coast 60 - 85 Hawthorn
Carrara (QLD)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.287549 - 0.712451RealScores: 59.838900 - 84.500866

Melbourne 63 - 80 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.346194 - 0.653806RealScores: 62.591280 - 79.983741

Richmond 90 - 61 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.741014 - 0.258986RealScores: 89.912599 - 61.443365

Sydney Sydney 75 - 71 Fremantle
S.C.G. (NSW)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.539263 - 0.460737RealScores: 75.424829 - 70.645739

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	9 (8.53)	3	144.5
2	Hawthorn	7 (7.28)	5	120.4
3	Geelong	7 (6.52)	4	117.2
4	Western Bulldogs	7 (7.18)	5	116.4
5	Greater Western Sydney	7 (6.61)	5	110.4
6	Collingwood	7 (6.66)	5	108.4
7	Port Adelaide	6 (5.97)	5	107.5
8	West Coast	6 (5.76)	5	104.4
9	Fremantle	6 (6.22)	6	103.4
10	Brisbane Lions	6 (5.55)	5	101.0
11	St Kilda	5 (5.00)	6	92.8
12	North Melbourne	5 (5.28)	7	91.6
13	Sydney	5 (5.18)	7	89.6
14	Essendon	5 (4.75)	6	88.8
15	Melbourne	5 (5.10)	7	88.3
16	Carlton	5 (4.93)	7	86.1
17	Adelaide	5 (4.87)	7	86.1
18	Gold Coast	4 (3.59)	8	70.7

Round 13

Adelaide 70 - 89 Port Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.334853 - 0.665147RealScores: 69.961355 - 88.700873

Gold Coast 66 - 90 St Kilda
Marrara Oval (NT)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.294063 - 0.705937RealScores: 66.282338 - 90.080852

Hawthorn 68 - 65 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.519517 - 0.480483RealScores: 67.859129 - 65.059224

North Melbourne 84 - 82 Brisbane Lions
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.511561 - 0.488439RealScores: 84.018471 - 82.014860

West Coast 94 - 67 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.724098 - 0.275902RealScores: 93.627103 - 67.464973

Western Bulldogs 85 - 70 Greater Western Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.633828 - 0.366172RealScores: 84.705436 - 69.646333

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	9 (8.53)	3	144.5
2	Hawthorn	8 (7.80)	5	119.2
3	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.82)	5	116.8
4	Geelong	7 (7.01)	5	115.4
5	Port Adelaide	7 (6.64)	5	109.0
6	Collingwood	7 (6.66)	5	108.4
7	Greater Western Sydney	7 (6.98)	6	107.8
8	West Coast	6 (6.49)	6	107.0
9	Fremantle	6 (6.22)	6	103.4
10	Brisbane Lions	6 (6.03)	6	100.7
11	St Kilda	6 (5.70)	6	95.8
12	North Melbourne	6 (5.79)	7	92.4
13	Sydney	5 (5.18)	7	89.6
14	Melbourne	5 (5.10)	7	88.3
15	Essendon	5 (5.02)	7	87.2
16	Carlton	5 (4.93)	7	86.1
17	Adelaide	5 (5.20)	8	85.5
18	Gold Coast	4 (3.89)	9	70.9

Round 14

Brisbane Lions 94 - 69 Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.719211 - 0.280789RealScores: 94.230746 - 68.708571

Essendon 75 - 82 St Kilda
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.436623 - 0.563377RealScores: 74.712604 - 82.065674

Fremantle 82 - 64 Carlton Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.657697 - 0.342303RealScores: 82.239071 - 64.369719

Port Adelaide 74 - 72 Geelong Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.512865 - 0.487135RealScores: 74.366218 - 72.181863

Richmond 93 - 62 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.756929 - 0.243071RealScores: 92.795184 - 62.165072

Sydney Sydney 69 - 73 Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.473626 - 0.526374RealScores: 69.036045 - 72.575625

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	9 (9.29)	4	144.9
2	Hawthorn	8 (7.80)	5	119.2
3	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.82)	5	116.8
4	Geelong	7 (7.49)	6	113.8
5	Port Adelaide	7 (7.15)	6	108.5
6	Collingwood	7 (7.19)	6	108.2
7	Greater Western Sydney	7 (6.98)	6	107.8
8	Fremantle	7 (6.88)	6	105.0
9	West Coast	7 (6.73)	6	103.3
10	Brisbane Lions	7 (6.75)	6	103.1
11	St Kilda	6 (6.27)	7	96.9
12	North Melbourne	6 (5.79)	7	92.4
13	Sydney	6 (5.65)	7	90.0
14	Essendon	5 (5.46)	8	87.5
15	Melbourne	5 (5.38)	8	86.9
16	Adelaide	5 (5.20)	8	85.5
17	Carlton	5 (5.27)	8	85.5
18	Gold Coast	4 (3.89)	9	70.9

Round 15

Brisbane Lions 77 - 74 Hawthorn
Gabba (QLD)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.521280 - 0.478720RealScores: 76.783007 - 73.689638

Carlton Carlton 65 - 79 Geelong Geelong
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.374793 - 0.625207RealScores: 65.179411 - 79.331230

Collingwood 89 - 57 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.769792 - 0.230208RealScores: 89.380261 - 56.901451

Greater Western Sydney 67 - 74 Richmond
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.440647 - 0.559353RealScores: 67.245087 - 74.237103

Melbourne 90 - 62 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.737777 - 0.262223RealScores: 89.873578 - 61.855411

Port Adelaide 82 - 67 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.628985 - 0.371015RealScores: 82.013270 - 67.432600

St Kilda 84 - 71 Sydney Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.610927 - 0.389073RealScores: 83.567833 - 71.018331

West Coast 89 - 73 North Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.639786 - 0.360214RealScores: 89.314167 - 73.495204

Western Bulldogs 94 - 70 Essendon
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.702825 - 0.297175RealScores: 93.531280 - 70.087380

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	10 (9.85)	4	142.2
2	Western Bulldogs	9 (8.52)	5	117.9
3	Hawthorn	8 (8.28)	6	117.2
4	Geelong	8 (8.12)	6	114.4
5	Collingwood	8 (7.96)	6	111.1
6	Port Adelaide	8 (7.78)	6	109.4
7	Greater Western Sydney	7 (7.42)	7	106.5
8	West Coast	7 (7.37)	7	104.5
9	Fremantle	7 (7.25)	7	103.2
10	Brisbane Lions	7 (7.27)	7	103.2
11	St Kilda	7 (6.88)	7	98.2
12	North Melbourne	6 (6.15)	8	91.6
13	Melbourne	6 (6.12)	8	90.1
14	Sydney	6 (6.04)	8	89.6
15	Essendon	6 (5.76)	8	86.5
16	Carlton	6 (5.64)	8	85.2
17	Adelaide	5 (5.43)	9	83.8
18	Gold Coast	4 (4.15)	10	70.8

Round 16

Adelaide 80 - 79 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 79.732056 - 79.364801

Collingwood 83 - 69 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.624396 - 0.375604RealScores: 82.948122 - 68.817232

Essendon 61 - 82 Hawthorn
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.314587 - 0.685413RealScores: 60.862614 - 82.188903

Fremantle 84 - 63 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.675157 - 0.324843RealScores: 83.538053 - 63.466443

Geelong Geelong 87 - 64 West Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.693964 - 0.306036RealScores: 86.785810 - 64.398083

Gold Coast 71 - 81 Carlton Carlton
Carrara (QLD)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.419685 - 0.580315RealScores: 71.303811 - 80.590385

North Melbourne 76 - 73 Greater Western Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.516219 - 0.483781RealScores: 75.673298 - 73.002007

Richmond 90 - 60 Port Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.749981 - 0.250019RealScores: 89.973835 - 60.237149

Sydney Sydney 77 - 85 Western Bulldogs
S.C.G. (NSW)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.431744 - 0.568256RealScores: 76.515798 - 84.521431

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	11 (10.60)	4	142.7
2	Hawthorn	9 (8.96)	6	118.3
3	Western Bulldogs	9 (9.09)	6	117.4
4	Geelong	9 (8.81)	6	115.7
5	Collingwood	9 (8.58)	6	111.7
6	Port Adelaide	8 (8.03)	7	106.0
7	Greater Western Sydney	8 (7.90)	7	105.8
8	Fremantle	8 (7.93)	7	104.9
9	West Coast	8 (7.68)	7	102.3
10	Brisbane Lions	8 (7.65)	7	101.8
11	St Kilda	7 (7.38)	8	98.3
12	North Melbourne	7 (6.67)	8	92.4
13	Sydney	6 (6.47)	9	89.7
14	Melbourne	6 (6.45)	9	89.2
15	Carlton	6 (6.22)	9	86.9
16	Essendon	6 (6.07)	9	85.7
17	Adelaide	6 (5.93)	9	84.9
18	Gold Coast	5 (4.57)	10	71.8

Round 17

Brisbane Lions 79 - 75 Geelong Geelong
Gabba (QLD)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.521470 - 0.478530RealScores: 78.713857 - 75.418068

Carlton Carlton 80 - 70 Sydney Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.583362 - 0.416638RealScores: 80.073442 - 70.366372

Greater Western Sydney 86 - 61 Essendon
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.716131 - 0.283869RealScores: 86.204682 - 60.914032

Hawthorn 80 - 64 North Melbourne
York Park (TAS)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.637564 - 0.362436RealScores: 79.820715 - 64.099960

Melbourne 76 - 79 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.478576 - 0.521424RealScores: 76.128639 - 79.419812

Port Adelaide 100 - 57 Gold Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.837566 - 0.162434RealScores: 99.829698 - 56.668462

Richmond 76 - 61 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.627886 - 0.372114RealScores: 75.970561 - 61.354581

West Coast 98 - 66 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.770029 - 0.229971RealScores: 98.161578 - 65.525755

Western Bulldogs 88 - 68 Fremantle
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.675790 - 0.324210RealScores: 88.139678 - 67.906094

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	11 (11.23)	5	141.5
2	Hawthorn	10 (9.60)	6	118.7
3	Western Bulldogs	10 (9.76)	6	118.1
4	Geelong	9 (9.29)	7	114.2
5	Collingwood	9 (8.96)	7	109.6
6	Port Adelaide	9 (8.87)	7	109.4
7	Greater Western Sydney	9 (8.62)	7	107.7
8	West Coast	8 (8.45)	8	104.8
9	Fremantle	8 (8.25)	8	102.8
10	Brisbane Lions	8 (8.17)	8	101.9
11	St Kilda	8 (7.90)	8	98.7
12	North Melbourne	7 (7.03)	9	91.6
13	Melbourne	7 (6.93)	9	89.6
14	Sydney	7 (6.89)	9	89.6
15	Carlton	7 (6.81)	9	88.4
16	Essendon	6 (6.36)	10	84.7
17	Adelaide	6 (6.16)	10	83.6
18	Gold Coast	5 (4.73)	11	70.8

Round 18

Adelaide 81 - 74 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.553455 - 0.446545RealScores: 80.741403 - 74.074552

Carlton Carlton 80 - 82 Brisbane Lions
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.489776 - 0.510224RealScores: 80.058023 - 82.349120

Collingwood 68 - 67 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 67.287490 - 67.024337

Essendon 74 - 83 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.428003 - 0.571997RealScores: 73.954857 - 82.562585

Fremantle 75 - 79 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.471467 - 0.528533RealScores: 75.028051 - 79.147964

Gold Coast 57 - 96 Richmond
Carrara (QLD)0.19 wins - 0.81 winsRealProbs: 0.188338 - 0.811662RealScores: 57.369085 - 96.378192

Hawthorn 75 - 60 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.634090 - 0.365910RealScores: 75.099936 - 59.669601

St Kilda 75 - 91 Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.359678 - 0.640322RealScores: 74.735381 - 90.881087

Sydney Sydney 78 - 76 Port Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.502909 - 0.497091RealScores: 77.699717 - 76.129772

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	12 (12.04)	5	143.0
2	Hawthorn	10 (10.23)	7	119.1
3	Western Bulldogs	10 (10.40)	7	118.3
4	Geelong	10 (9.79)	7	113.4
5	Collingwood	9 (9.46)	8	109.0
6	Port Adelaide	9 (9.36)	8	108.7
7	Greater Western Sydney	9 (8.99)	8	106.0
8	West Coast	9 (8.98)	8	104.8
9	Fremantle	9 (8.72)	8	102.3
10	Brisbane Lions	9 (8.68)	8	102.0
11	St Kilda	8 (8.26)	9	97.5
12	North Melbourne	8 (7.60)	9	92.7
13	Sydney	7 (7.39)	10	90.3
14	Melbourne	7 (7.37)	10	89.7
15	Carlton	7 (7.30)	10	88.9
16	Essendon	7 (6.78)	10	85.0
17	Adelaide	7 (6.72)	10	84.9
18	Gold Coast	5 (4.92)	12	70.1

Round 19

Brisbane Lions 94 - 73 St Kilda
Gabba (QLD)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.685757 - 0.314243RealScores: 94.188573 - 72.506296

Carlton Carlton 79 - 81 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.492774 - 0.507226RealScores: 78.553974 - 80.678334

Essendon 85 - 71 Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.616008 - 0.383992RealScores: 84.708321 - 71.194110

Fremantle 71 - 66 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.532339 - 0.467661RealScores: 70.990519 - 66.357367

Geelong Geelong 88 - 57 Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.758564 - 0.241436RealScores: 88.198424 - 56.964533

Greater Western Sydney 79 - 66 Sydney Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.612380 - 0.387620RealScores: 79.020707 - 65.910405

North Melbourne 96 - 60 Gold Coast
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.793702 - 0.206298RealScores: 96.424978 - 60.071662

Port Adelaide 73 - 70 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.521945 - 0.478055RealScores: 73.328538 - 69.741685

Richmond 86 - 69 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.644862 - 0.355138RealScores: 86.180628 - 69.384583

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	13 (12.68)	5	141.8
2	Hawthorn	11 (10.71)	7	117.6
3	Western Bulldogs	11 (10.76)	7	115.9
4	Geelong	11 (10.55)	7	115.3
5	Port Adelaide	10 (9.88)	8	108.5
6	Collingwood	10 (9.92)	8	108.2
7	Greater Western Sydney	10 (9.60)	8	106.7
8	West Coast	9 (9.48)	9	104.7
9	Brisbane Lions	9 (9.37)	9	103.4
10	Fremantle	9 (9.26)	9	102.5
11	St Kilda	9 (8.57)	9	96.2
12	North Melbourne	8 (8.40)	10	95.6
13	Sydney	8 (7.78)	10	89.9
14	Carlton	8 (7.79)	10	89.4
15	Melbourne	8 (7.61)	10	88.2
16	Essendon	7 (7.40)	11	86.6
17	Adelaide	7 (7.10)	11	84.8
18	Gold Coast	5 (5.13)	13	69.6

Round 20

Adelaide 63 - 91 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.267265 - 0.732735RealScores: 63.200675 - 91.047379

Essendon 62 - 82 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.331431 - 0.668569RealScores: 62.048842 - 81.784573

Geelong Geelong 82 - 70 Western Bulldogs
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.605525 - 0.394475RealScores: 82.428768 - 69.934072

Gold Coast 68 - 81 Fremantle
Carrara (QLD)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.390230 - 0.609770RealScores: 67.605142 - 80.568521

Greater Western Sydney 84 - 72 Brisbane Lions
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.606032 - 0.393968RealScores: 84.126107 - 71.575600

Melbourne 79 - 72 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.552954 - 0.447046RealScores: 78.782968 - 71.897568

North Melbourne 80 - 75 Carlton Carlton
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.532034 - 0.467966RealScores: 79.785602 - 75.040570

St Kilda 65 - 80 Hawthorn
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.372185 - 0.627815RealScores: 64.858929 - 79.843317

West Coast 87 - 75 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.600394 - 0.399606RealScores: 87.006691 - 75.075224

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	13 (13.42)	6	141.9
2	Hawthorn	11 (11.34)	8	117.9
3	Geelong	11 (11.15)	8	115.5
4	Western Bulldogs	11 (11.15)	8	114.1
5	Collingwood	11 (10.59)	8	109.3
6	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.20)	9	107.3
7	Port Adelaide	10 (10.28)	9	107.1
8	West Coast	10 (10.08)	9	105.3
9	Fremantle	10 (9.87)	9	103.3
10	Brisbane Lions	10 (9.76)	9	102.4
11	North Melbourne	9 (8.93)	10	96.1
12	St Kilda	9 (8.94)	10	95.4
13	Sydney	8 (8.23)	11	90.0
14	Carlton	8 (8.26)	11	89.6
15	Melbourne	8 (8.17)	11	89.2
16	Essendon	8 (7.73)	11	86.0
17	Adelaide	7 (7.37)	12	84.0
18	Gold Coast	6 (5.52)	13	70.3

Round 21

Brisbane Lions 92 - 79 West Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.608710 - 0.391290RealScores: 91.756439 - 78.752294

Carlton Carlton 59 - 90 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.24 wins - 0.76 winsRealProbs: 0.243277 - 0.756723RealScores: 58.758597 - 90.050524

Collingwood 80 - 63 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.648710 - 0.351290RealScores: 80.060580 - 62.514441

Fremantle 83 - 67 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.632123 - 0.367877RealScores: 83.085521 - 67.452522

Geelong Geelong 79 - 59 Greater Western Sydney
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.674306 - 0.325694RealScores: 79.317267 - 58.728818

Hawthorn 91 - 54 Adelaide
York Park (TAS)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.794610 - 0.205390RealScores: 91.215866 - 54.399473

Port Adelaide 91 - 65 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.722521 - 0.277479RealScores: 91.404031 - 64.743496

Sydney Sydney 91 - 60 Gold Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.751815 - 0.248185RealScores: 90.784713 - 60.176316

Western Bulldogs 89 - 76 North Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.610714 - 0.389286RealScores: 89.001553 - 75.775471

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	14 (14.17)	6	142.4
2	Hawthorn	12 (12.13)	8	120.0
3	Geelong	12 (11.83)	8	116.3
4	Western Bulldogs	12 (11.76)	8	114.2
5	Collingwood	11 (11.24)	9	110.2
6	Port Adelaide	11 (11.01)	9	108.6
7	Greater Western Sydney	11 (10.53)	9	105.4
8	Fremantle	10 (10.50)	10	104.2
9	West Coast	10 (10.48)	10	104.1
10	Brisbane Lions	10 (10.37)	10	103.1
11	North Melbourne	9 (9.32)	11	95.5
12	St Kilda	9 (9.31)	11	94.7
13	Sydney	9 (8.98)	11	92.3
14	Melbourne	9 (8.52)	11	88.6
15	Carlton	9 (8.50)	11	88.3
16	Essendon	8 (8.01)	12	85.2
17	Adelaide	8 (7.57)	12	82.7
18	Gold Coast	6 (5.77)	14	70.1

Round 22

Adelaide 78 - 81 North Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.488921 - 0.511079RealScores: 77.982296 - 80.955704

Essendon 78 - 74 Sydney Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.528872 - 0.471128RealScores: 78.286599 - 73.534929

Gold Coast 67 - 98 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.24 wins - 0.76 winsRealProbs: 0.243716 - 0.756284RealScores: 66.668149 - 98.088011

Greater Western Sydney 78 - 63 Fremantle
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.630735 - 0.369265RealScores: 78.220652 - 62.570919

Melbourne 74 - 77 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.493873 - 0.506127RealScores: 74.438037 - 76.922265

Richmond 74 - 62 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.599317 - 0.400683RealScores: 73.853658 - 61.709319

St Kilda 68 - 80 Geelong Geelong
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.400727 - 0.599273RealScores: 68.031308 - 80.170830

West Coast 78 - 71 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.551208 - 0.448792RealScores: 77.939645 - 70.907528

Western Bulldogs 90 - 74 Port Adelaide
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.641028 - 0.358972RealScores: 90.342849 - 73.512655

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	15 (14.77)	6	141.4
2	Hawthorn	13 (12.53)	8	118.0
3	Geelong	12 (12.43)	9	116.4
4	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.41)	9	114.6
5	Collingwood	12 (11.69)	9	109.1
6	Port Adelaide	11 (11.37)	10	107.0
7	Greater Western Sydney	11 (11.16)	10	106.2
8	Brisbane Lions	11 (11.13)	10	104.9
9	West Coast	11 (11.03)	10	104.4
10	Fremantle	11 (10.87)	10	103.0
11	North Melbourne	10 (9.83)	11	95.9
12	St Kilda	10 (9.71)	11	94.2
13	Sydney	9 (9.45)	12	92.4
14	Melbourne	9 (9.01)	12	89.0
15	Carlton	9 (9.01)	12	88.9
16	Essendon	9 (8.54)	12	86.1
17	Adelaide	8 (8.06)	13	83.3
18	Gold Coast	6 (6.01)	15	70.0

Round 23

Brisbane Lions 96 - 68 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.733761 - 0.266239RealScores: 96.431584 - 67.891335

Carlton Carlton 76 - 79 St Kilda
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.498390 - 0.501610RealScores: 76.492132 - 78.713484

Collingwood 94 - 50 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.835326 - 0.164674RealScores: 94.221698 - 50.425264

Fremantle 66 - 77 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.412721 - 0.587279RealScores: 66.161115 - 77.185137

Geelong Geelong 95 - 55 Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.812044 - 0.187956RealScores: 94.532613 - 54.576105

North Melbourne 87 - 69 Melbourne
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.650043 - 0.349957RealScores: 86.658493 - 68.588290

Port Adelaide 80 - 68 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.591169 - 0.408831RealScores: 79.725902 - 68.281387

Sydney Sydney 67 - 74 Hawthorn
S.C.G. (NSW)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.448029 - 0.551971RealScores: 66.731210 - 74.026144

Western Bulldogs 93 - 76 West Coast
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.640408 - 0.359592RealScores: 92.994493 - 76.044712

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	15 (15.36)	7	140.2
2	Geelong	13 (13.24)	9	118.5
3	Hawthorn	13 (13.09)	9	117.7
4	Western Bulldogs	13 (13.05)	9	115.0
5	Collingwood	13 (12.53)	9	111.7
6	Port Adelaide	12 (11.96)	10	107.4
7	Brisbane Lions	12 (11.86)	10	106.4
8	Greater Western Sydney	12 (11.57)	10	105.2
9	West Coast	11 (11.39)	11	103.2
10	Fremantle	11 (11.28)	11	102.2
11	North Melbourne	10 (10.48)	12	97.1
12	St Kilda	10 (10.21)	12	94.6
13	Sydney	10 (9.90)	12	92.3
14	Carlton	10 (9.51)	12	89.3
15	Melbourne	9 (9.36)	13	88.5
16	Essendon	9 (8.80)	13	85.3
17	Adelaide	8 (8.25)	14	82.0
18	Gold Coast	6 (6.17)	16	69.2

FINALS: WEEK 1

Richmond 86 - 69 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)

Geelong Geelong 65 - 68 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)

Collingwood 74 - 62 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Port Adelaide 88 - 77 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Western Bulldogs 75 - 76 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)

Geelong Geelong 81 - 65 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Richmond 77 - 62 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)

Hawthorn 67 - 65 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)

2020 AFL GRAND FINAL

Hawthorn 62 - 74 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE4

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Richmond	56.0	67.6	61.8
2	Hawthorn	49.9	65.3	57.6
3	Geelong	51.0	63.6	57.3
4	Western Bulldogs	56.4	56.2	56.3
5	Collingwood	48.8	62.6	55.7
6	Greater Western Sydney	48.5	59.2	53.8
7	Brisbane Lions	54.3	53.1	53.7
8	Port Adelaide	51.4	55.7	53.6
9	West Coast	53.1	54.0	53.5
10	Fremantle	47.8	57.2	52.5
11	North Melbourne	50.5	54.2	52.4
12	St Kilda	49.5	52.8	51.1
13	Carlton	47.5	53.4	50.5
14	Sydney	46.6	52.9	49.8
15	Melbourne	46.6	52.2	49.4
16	Essendon	46.4	51.2	48.8
17	Adelaide	45.7	49.2	47.4
18	Gold Coast	41.1	46.6	43.8