Squiggle 2027

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		Wins	%
1	Sydney	15.7	131.8%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
2	Hawthorn	14.6	125.5%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
3	Geelong	14.4	121.6%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
4	Fremantle	13.9	119.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
5	Collingwood	13.0	111.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
6	St Kilda	12.8	110.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
7	Western Bulldogs	12.3	107.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
8	Brisbane Lions	12.1	105.0%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
9	Carlton	11.9	104.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
10	Gold Coast	11.5	101.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
11	Melbourne	11.2	99.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12	Port Adelaide	11.1	98.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
13	Adelaide	10.8	96.5%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
14	Greater Western Sydney	10.8	96.5%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
15	North Melbourne	9.5	88.7%	3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
16	West Coast	7.7	77.6%	6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
17	Richmond	6.9	72.9%	7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
18	Essendon	6.7	72.3%	8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 1

Adelaide 89 - 84 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.554145 - 0.445855RealScores: 89.386397 - 83.961267

Fremantle 84 - 71 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.646196 - 0.353804RealScores: 84.496176 - 70.515459

Hawthorn 103 - 86 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.675391 - 0.324609RealScores: 102.561145 - 85.808473

Melbourne 100 - 74 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.755312 - 0.244688RealScores: 99.509682 - 74.364131

North Melbourne 83 - 82 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 82.376938 - 82.366352

Richmond 68 - 92 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.259495 - 0.740505RealScores: 68.360031 - 91.827404

St Kilda 83 - 84 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 83.484939 - 83.495524

Sydney Sydney 104 - 91 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.634726 - 0.365274RealScores: 104.192560 - 91.278958

West Coast 78 - 91 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.367989 - 0.632011RealScores: 77.847108 - 90.509257

		W	L	%
1	Carlton	1 (0.67)	0	134.3
2	Melbourne	1 (0.69)	0	133.8
3	Fremantle	1 (0.60)	0	119.8
4	Hawthorn	1 (0.62)	0	119.5
5	Gold Coast	1 (0.59)	0	116.3
6	Sydney	1 (0.59)	0	114.1
7	Adelaide	1 (0.53)	0	106.5
8	North Melbourne	1 (0.50)	0	100.0
9	Collingwood	1 (0.50)	0	100.0
10	St Kilda	0 (0.50)	1	100.0
11	Port Adelaide	0 (0.50)	1	100.0
12	Greater Western Sydney	0 (0.47)	1	93.9
13	Geelong	0 (0.41)	1	87.6
14	West Coast	0 (0.41)	1	86.0
15	Brisbane Lions	0 (0.38)	1	83.7
16	Western Bulldogs	0 (0.40)	1	83.5
17	Essendon	0 (0.31)	1	74.7
18	Richmond	0 (0.33)	1	74.4

Round 2

Brisbane Lions 101 - 96 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.546345 - 0.453655RealScores: 100.824706 - 96.149578

Essendon 73 - 114 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.13 wins - 0.87 winsRealProbs: 0.131853 - 0.868147RealScores: 72.809690 - 113.631287

Fremantle 92 - 70 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.727964 - 0.272036RealScores: 92.021540 - 69.924970

Geelong Geelong 84 - 90 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.439638 - 0.560362RealScores: 83.973067 - 89.990330

Gold Coast 98 - 67 Richmond
Carrara (QLD)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.803621 - 0.196379RealScores: 98.030040 - 66.872030

Greater Western Sydney 97 - 73 West Coast
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.745832 - 0.254168RealScores: 96.956512 - 72.893159

North Melbourne 79 - 90 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.393987 - 0.606013RealScores: 79.480601 - 89.746615

Port Adelaide 86 - 82 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.541000 - 0.459000RealScores: 86.160929 - 82.004820

Western Bulldogs 80 - 81 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 80.375240 - 80.385825

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	1 (1.39)	1	132.7
2	Gold Coast	1 (1.33)	1	130.3
3	Fremantle	1 (1.27)	1	125.7
4	Carlton	1 (1.25)	1	122.8
5	Hawthorn	1 (1.16)	1	113.4
6	Melbourne	1 (1.17)	1	113.1
7	Greater Western Sydney	1 (1.16)	1	111.5
8	Port Adelaide	1 (1.02)	1	102.5
9	St Kilda	1 (1.00)	1	100.0
10	Collingwood	1 (0.97)	1	97.5
11	North Melbourne	1 (0.92)	1	94.0
12	Brisbane Lions	1 (0.90)	1	93.9
13	Western Bulldogs	1 (0.90)	1	91.5
14	Adelaide	1 (0.85)	1	90.5
15	Geelong	1 (0.87)	1	90.3
16	West Coast	1 (0.72)	1	80.4
17	Richmond	1 (0.59)	1	71.2
18	Essendon	1 (0.51)	1	69.0

Round 3

Adelaide 81 - 82 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 81.913303 - 81.923888

Carlton Carlton 97 - 95 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.515647 - 0.484353RealScores: 97.121492 - 95.494246

Collingwood 82 - 79 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.528335 - 0.471665RealScores: 81.926705 - 79.018934

Geelong Geelong 112 - 67 Richmond
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.89 wins - 0.11 winsRealProbs: 0.892566 - 0.107434RealScores: 112.194968 - 67.116979

Gold Coast 96 - 78 North Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.683142 - 0.316858RealScores: 95.840430 - 78.333256

Hawthorn 104 - 62 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.88 wins - 0.12 winsRealProbs: 0.876141 - 0.123859RealScores: 103.752685 - 61.577598

St Kilda 91 - 82 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.592285 - 0.407715RealScores: 91.269635 - 82.269199

Sydney Sydney 107 - 81 Greater Western Sydney
S.C.G. (NSW)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.760312 - 0.239688RealScores: 106.755151 - 81.027073

West Coast 76 - 83 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.423841 - 0.576159RealScores: 75.529674 - 83.033115

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	2 (2.10)	1	132.4
2	Hawthorn	2 (1.97)	1	128.1
3	Gold Coast	2 (1.97)	1	127.5
4	Fremantle	2 (1.76)	1	114.9
5	Carlton	2 (1.75)	1	114.5
6	Geelong	2 (1.70)	1	110.0
7	Port Adelaide	2 (1.58)	1	104.9
8	Melbourne	2 (1.60)	1	104.8
9	St Kilda	2 (1.57)	1	103.7
10	Collingwood	1 (1.49)	2	99.3
11	Greater Western Sydney	1 (1.46)	2	97.4
12	Brisbane Lions	1 (1.40)	2	95.4
13	Western Bulldogs	1 (1.40)	2	94.3
14	Adelaide	1 (1.35)	2	93.5
15	North Melbourne	1 (1.28)	2	89.6
16	West Coast	1 (1.17)	2	83.6
17	Richmond	1 (0.76)	2	67.0
18	Essendon	1 (0.70)	2	65.9

Round 4

Adelaide 98 - 99 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 98.797208 - 98.807793

Carlton Carlton 87 - 85 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.523346 - 0.476654RealScores: 87.344870 - 84.936789

Essendon 75 - 93 North Melbourne
Norwood Oval (SA)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.316612 - 0.683388RealScores: 75.452904 - 92.984242

Fremantle 74 - 80 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.441527 - 0.558473RealScores: 73.784805 - 79.622600

Gold Coast 90 - 85 Greater Western Sydney
Barossa Park (SA)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.551545 - 0.448455RealScores: 89.801971 - 84.625957

Port Adelaide 79 - 78 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 78.106091 - 78.095506

Richmond 76 - 79 West Coast
Norwood Oval (SA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.471164 - 0.528836RealScores: 76.143700 - 79.101453

St Kilda 87 - 92 Geelong Geelong
Barossa Park (SA)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.447977 - 0.552023RealScores: 87.207356 - 92.429205

Sydney Sydney 99 - 83 Collingwood
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.662630 - 0.337370RealScores: 99.008289 - 83.479239

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	3 (2.73)	1	128.9
2	Hawthorn	3 (2.52)	1	123.2
3	Gold Coast	3 (2.51)	1	121.6
4	Carlton	2 (2.26)	2	111.5
5	Fremantle	2 (2.22)	2	109.1
6	Geelong	2 (2.24)	2	109.0
7	Port Adelaide	2 (2.08)	2	103.7
8	Melbourne	2 (2.09)	2	102.8
9	St Kilda	2 (2.03)	2	101.1
10	North Melbourne	2 (1.93)	2	97.0
11	Greater Western Sydney	2 (1.92)	2	96.6
12	Brisbane Lions	2 (1.90)	2	96.5
13	Western Bulldogs	2 (1.90)	2	95.7
14	Adelaide	2 (1.85)	2	95.3
15	Collingwood	2 (1.86)	2	95.2
16	West Coast	2 (1.68)	2	88.1
17	Richmond	1 (1.24)	3	73.1
18	Essendon	1 (1.06)	3	69.3

Round 5

Adelaide 87 - 84 Gold Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.526192 - 0.473808RealScores: 86.873001 - 84.179238

Brisbane Lions 109 - 92 Greater Western Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.679788 - 0.320212RealScores: 109.294876 - 92.115303

Carlton Carlton 81 - 85 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.466637 - 0.533363RealScores: 81.307970 - 84.714646

Essendon 72 - 112 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.14 wins - 0.86 winsRealProbs: 0.139676 - 0.860324RealScores: 72.281000 - 111.813901

Fremantle 97 - 64 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.814720 - 0.185280RealScores: 96.678895 - 64.004889

Melbourne 87 - 104 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.321800 - 0.678200RealScores: 86.771353 - 103.796376

Richmond 75 - 90 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.343130 - 0.656870RealScores: 74.567000 - 89.550251

St Kilda 88 - 72 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.669185 - 0.330815RealScores: 87.950819 - 71.795927

Western Bulldogs 73 - 84 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.385780 - 0.614220RealScores: 72.705020 - 83.726362

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	3 (3.37)	2	127.0
2	Hawthorn	3 (3.11)	2	121.6
3	Geelong	3 (3.04)	2	116.8
4	Fremantle	3 (2.98)	2	116.4
5	Gold Coast	3 (2.99)	2	116.2
6	Carlton	3 (2.74)	2	108.3
7	St Kilda	3 (2.67)	2	104.9
8	North Melbourne	3 (2.56)	2	101.1
9	Brisbane Lions	3 (2.55)	2	100.7
10	Port Adelaide	2 (2.44)	3	98.9
11	Melbourne	2 (2.44)	3	98.3
12	Collingwood	2 (2.38)	3	96.9
13	Adelaide	2 (2.37)	3	96.8
14	Western Bulldogs	2 (2.31)	3	93.9
15	Greater Western Sydney	2 (2.27)	3	93.7
16	West Coast	2 (1.92)	3	83.3
17	Richmond	2 (1.61)	3	75.0
18	Essendon	1 (1.25)	4	68.3

Round 6

Brisbane Lions 118 - 77 West Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.87 wins - 0.13 winsRealProbs: 0.866320 - 0.133680RealScores: 117.818005 - 77.300641

Collingwood 102 - 67 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.832075 - 0.167925RealScores: 102.238499 - 67.079085

Fremantle 86 - 72 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.653458 - 0.346542RealScores: 86.475990 - 71.814382

Geelong Geelong 109 - 78 North Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.804008 - 0.195992RealScores: 109.457103 - 78.247159

Gold Coast 76 - 87 Hawthorn
Carrara (QLD)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.385361 - 0.614639RealScores: 76.339301 - 87.399167

Greater Western Sydney 83 - 84 Western Bulldogs
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.486536 - 0.513464RealScores: 82.809370 - 84.212971

Melbourne 99 - 71 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.776073 - 0.223927RealScores: 98.505636 - 70.884616

Port Adelaide 80 - 78 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.523738 - 0.476262RealScores: 80.465585 - 78.018031

Sydney Sydney 109 - 76 Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.818579 - 0.181421RealScores: 108.903644 - 75.689448

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	4 (4.14)	2	129.6
2	Geelong	4 (3.80)	2	120.5
3	Hawthorn	4 (3.71)	2	120.4
4	Fremantle	4 (3.61)	2	117.1
5	Gold Coast	3 (3.39)	3	110.9
6	Brisbane Lions	3 (3.36)	3	107.8
7	Carlton	3 (3.22)	3	106.5
8	Collingwood	3 (3.16)	3	104.2
9	Melbourne	3 (3.17)	3	103.9
10	St Kilda	3 (3.04)	3	101.1
11	Port Adelaide	3 (2.95)	3	99.6
12	Western Bulldogs	3 (2.81)	3	95.2
13	North Melbourne	3 (2.80)	3	95.0
14	Greater Western Sydney	3 (2.77)	3	94.4
15	Adelaide	3 (2.60)	3	91.4
16	West Coast	2 (2.11)	4	79.6
17	Richmond	2 (1.88)	4	74.5
18	Essendon	1 (1.47)	5	67.9

Round 7

Brisbane Lions 100 - 112 Sydney Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.374992 - 0.625008RealScores: 99.884998 - 111.900161

Essendon 66 - 96 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.21 wins - 0.79 winsRealProbs: 0.207858 - 0.792142RealScores: 66.114009 - 95.760726

Greater Western Sydney 88 - 100 Geelong Geelong
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.375296 - 0.624704RealScores: 87.655027 - 99.642157

Hawthorn 88 - 71 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.670965 - 0.329035RealScores: 87.731627 - 71.405822

Melbourne 92 - 85 Adelaide
Traeger Park (NT)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.569684 - 0.430316RealScores: 91.608807 - 84.711728

North Melbourne 77 - 94 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.325980 - 0.674020RealScores: 77.090570 - 93.710665

Richmond 67 - 88 Port Adelaide
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.279967 - 0.720033RealScores: 66.929205 - 88.180818

West Coast 74 - 94 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.298024 - 0.701976RealScores: 74.435454 - 93.819212

Western Bulldogs 87 - 77 Gold Coast
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.604696 - 0.395304RealScores: 87.284455 - 77.139660

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	5 (4.74)	2	126.6
2	Hawthorn	4 (4.35)	3	120.8
3	Fremantle	4 (4.35)	3	120.7
4	Geelong	4 (4.41)	3	119.4
5	Gold Coast	4 (3.81)	3	107.5
6	Collingwood	4 (3.83)	3	106.9
7	Brisbane Lions	4 (3.76)	3	104.7
8	Melbourne	4 (3.73)	3	104.5
9	St Kilda	4 (3.69)	3	103.8
10	Port Adelaide	4 (3.64)	3	103.5
11	Carlton	4 (3.58)	3	102.7
12	Western Bulldogs	3 (3.40)	4	97.6
13	Greater Western Sydney	3 (3.16)	4	93.4
14	North Melbourne	3 (3.16)	4	93.1
15	Adelaide	3 (3.04)	4	91.6
16	West Coast	2 (2.44)	5	79.6
17	Richmond	2 (2.20)	5	74.7
18	Essendon	2 (1.72)	5	68.0

Round 8

Carlton Carlton 85 - 94 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.411920 - 0.588080RealScores: 85.118768 - 93.730323

Collingwood 83 - 81 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.519147 - 0.480853RealScores: 82.711715 - 80.727927

Fremantle 103 - 84 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.692000 - 0.308000RealScores: 102.568136 - 84.186513

Gold Coast 103 - 67 Essendon
Carrara (QLD)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.836437 - 0.163563RealScores: 102.541161 - 66.733711

Hawthorn 96 - 71 Greater Western Sydney
York Park (TAS)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.753092 - 0.246908RealScores: 95.892153 - 71.002583

Melbourne 102 - 71 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.802883 - 0.197117RealScores: 102.054368 - 70.995244

Port Adelaide 82 - 80 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.522123 - 0.477877RealScores: 82.151580 - 79.866734

St Kilda 99 - 63 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.833255 - 0.166745RealScores: 98.825881 - 63.492101

Sydney Sydney 114 - 74 North Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.861957 - 0.138043RealScores: 114.267347 - 74.468402

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	6 (5.56)	2	129.6
2	Hawthorn	5 (5.06)	3	122.5
3	Fremantle	5 (5.01)	3	120.9
4	Geelong	5 (4.98)	3	118.3
5	Gold Coast	5 (4.60)	3	112.3
6	St Kilda	4 (4.47)	4	109.0
7	Melbourne	4 (4.49)	4	108.7
8	Collingwood	4 (4.34)	4	106.4
9	Port Adelaide	4 (4.15)	4	103.4
10	Brisbane Lions	4 (4.10)	4	101.7
11	Carlton	4 (4.00)	4	101.0
12	Western Bulldogs	4 (3.89)	4	97.6
13	Adelaide	4 (3.53)	4	92.2
14	Greater Western Sydney	3 (3.45)	5	90.9
15	North Melbourne	3 (3.34)	5	88.7
16	West Coast	3 (2.68)	5	78.2
17	Richmond	2 (2.41)	6	73.3
18	Essendon	2 (1.93)	6	67.7

Round 9

Adelaide 86 - 98 Geelong Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.380827 - 0.619173RealScores: 86.220831 - 97.698206

Brisbane Lions 101 - 93 St Kilda
Gabba (QLD)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.584234 - 0.415766RealScores: 100.998367 - 92.743379

Carlton Carlton 79 - 80 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499053 - 0.500947RealScores: 79.872850 - 79.906461

Greater Western Sydney 78 - 87 Fremantle
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.407433 - 0.592567RealScores: 77.960934 - 86.987448

Hawthorn 91 - 65 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.762324 - 0.237676RealScores: 91.092562 - 65.127628

Melbourne 92 - 86 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.559548 - 0.440452RealScores: 91.619980 - 85.679972

North Melbourne 79 - 95 Collingwood
Docklands (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.329295 - 0.670705RealScores: 78.652499 - 94.953336

Richmond 78 - 77 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.515874 - 0.484126RealScores: 78.254145 - 76.738825

West Coast 73 - 111 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.15 wins - 0.85 winsRealProbs: 0.148226 - 0.851774RealScores: 73.267307 - 111.431262

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	6 (6.37)	3	131.8
2	Hawthorn	6 (5.79)	3	124.2
3	Fremantle	6 (5.60)	3	119.8
4	Geelong	6 (5.58)	3	117.7
5	Gold Coast	5 (5.04)	4	110.0
6	Melbourne	5 (5.04)	4	108.5
7	Collingwood	5 (4.99)	4	107.9
8	St Kilda	5 (4.90)	4	106.6
9	Brisbane Lions	5 (4.67)	4	102.5
10	Carlton	5 (4.50)	4	100.9
11	Port Adelaide	4 (4.43)	5	99.4
12	Western Bulldogs	4 (4.39)	5	97.9
13	Adelaide	4 (3.92)	5	91.7
14	Greater Western Sydney	4 (3.87)	5	90.8
15	North Melbourne	4 (3.69)	5	88.1
16	West Coast	3 (2.87)	6	76.6
17	Richmond	3 (2.92)	6	75.9
18	Essendon	2 (2.42)	7	70.3

Round 10

Collingwood 100 - 65 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.834145 - 0.165855RealScores: 100.199835 - 64.734120

Essendon 75 - 91 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.332954 - 0.667046RealScores: 75.323936 - 91.273955

Fremantle 95 - 72 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.736865 - 0.263135RealScores: 95.299099 - 72.234153

Geelong Geelong 117 - 65 West Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.927630 - 0.072370RealScores: 117.277026 - 65.414000

Gold Coast 85 - 82 Carlton Carlton
Marrara Oval (NT)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.531115 - 0.468885RealScores: 84.917731 - 82.028997

Port Adelaide 95 - 94 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.507377 - 0.492623RealScores: 94.447443 - 93.930098

St Kilda 95 - 76 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.691082 - 0.308918RealScores: 94.540840 - 76.250478

Sydney Sydney 91 - 82 Hawthorn
S.C.G. (NSW)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.594186 - 0.405814RealScores: 91.050926 - 81.874825

Western Bulldogs 92 - 75 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.673026 - 0.326974RealScores: 91.716661 - 75.192459

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	7 (6.95)	3	129.8
2	Geelong	6 (6.47)	4	122.6
3	Fremantle	6 (6.30)	4	121.0
4	Hawthorn	6 (6.20)	4	120.0
5	Collingwood	6 (5.78)	4	111.7
6	Gold Coast	6 (5.57)	4	109.3
7	St Kilda	6 (5.56)	4	108.3
8	Melbourne	5 (5.34)	5	104.8
9	Brisbane Lions	5 (5.17)	5	102.2
10	Carlton	5 (4.98)	5	100.5
11	Western Bulldogs	5 (5.04)	5	100.1
12	Port Adelaide	5 (4.93)	5	99.5
13	Adelaide	5 (4.56)	5	94.2
14	Greater Western Sydney	4 (4.21)	6	89.8
15	North Melbourne	4 (4.05)	6	87.5
16	Richmond	3 (3.13)	7	74.7
17	West Coast	3 (2.99)	7	74.1
18	Essendon	3 (2.78)	7	71.4

Round 11

Carlton Carlton 78 - 79 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.484770 - 0.515230RealScores: 78.199372 - 79.354086

Geelong Geelong 107 - 83 Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.741781 - 0.258219RealScores: 106.910321 - 83.300989

Greater Western Sydney 102 - 69 Essendon
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.817612 - 0.182388RealScores: 101.833919 - 68.755735

Hawthorn 88 - 71 St Kilda
York Park (TAS)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.678717 - 0.321283RealScores: 88.346830 - 71.271569

North Melbourne 89 - 79 West Coast
Hands Oval (WA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.612280 - 0.387720RealScores: 89.414759 - 78.571998

Port Adelaide 80 - 82 Collingwood
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.481795 - 0.518205RealScores: 80.468065 - 81.918007

Western Bulldogs 82 - 94 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.383785 - 0.616215RealScores: 82.346683 - 93.551675

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	8 (7.55)	3	128.3
2	Geelong	7 (7.17)	4	123.1
3	Hawthorn	7 (6.86)	4	120.4
4	Fremantle	7 (6.80)	4	119.1
5	Collingwood	6 (6.29)	5	110.8
6	Gold Coast	6 (5.57)	4	109.3
7	St Kilda	6 (5.91)	5	105.6
8	Melbourne	6 (5.63)	5	101.8
9	Brisbane Lions	5 (5.17)	5	102.2
10	Carlton	5 (5.48)	6	100.3
11	Port Adelaide	5 (5.42)	6	99.4
12	Western Bulldogs	5 (5.43)	6	98.9
13	Adelaide	5 (4.56)	5	94.2
14	Greater Western Sydney	5 (4.98)	6	93.8
15	North Melbourne	5 (4.64)	6	89.5
16	West Coast	3 (3.39)	8	75.3
17	Richmond	3 (3.13)	7	74.7
18	Essendon	3 (3.00)	8	71.1

Round 12

Brisbane Lions 104 - 94 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.596774 - 0.403226RealScores: 103.813539 - 94.398654

Collingwood 75 - 87 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.377562 - 0.622438RealScores: 75.269082 - 87.047236

Essendon 66 - 101 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.17 wins - 0.83 winsRealProbs: 0.166469 - 0.833531RealScores: 65.629125 - 101.003806

North Melbourne 69 - 96 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.23 wins - 0.77 winsRealProbs: 0.228299 - 0.771701RealScores: 69.072924 - 96.160011

Richmond 73 - 89 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.336313 - 0.663687RealScores: 73.341850 - 88.971476

West Coast 74 - 90 Carlton Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.331079 - 0.668921RealScores: 73.710402 - 89.839986

Western Bulldogs 89 - 80 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.591388 - 0.408612RealScores: 89.295590 - 80.444324

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	8 (7.55)	3	128.3
2	Fremantle	8 (7.53)	4	120.7
3	Geelong	7 (7.17)	4	123.1
4	Hawthorn	7 (7.46)	5	120.0
5	St Kilda	7 (6.70)	5	108.8
6	Collingwood	7 (6.68)	5	108.6
7	Gold Coast	6 (5.98)	5	107.2
8	Brisbane Lions	6 (5.75)	5	102.9
9	Carlton	6 (6.12)	6	101.9
10	Melbourne	6 (6.05)	6	100.8
11	Western Bulldogs	6 (6.01)	6	99.9
12	Port Adelaide	5 (5.42)	6	99.4
13	Adelaide	5 (5.21)	6	96.3
14	Greater Western Sydney	5 (4.98)	6	93.8
15	North Melbourne	5 (4.91)	7	88.0
16	West Coast	4 (3.75)	8	75.8
17	Richmond	3 (3.49)	8	75.4
18	Essendon	3 (3.21)	9	70.6

Round 13

Adelaide 74 - 90 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.333720 - 0.666280RealScores: 74.072049 - 89.948893

Carlton Carlton 98 - 66 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.812086 - 0.187914RealScores: 98.371921 - 66.062743

Geelong Geelong 117 - 95 Brisbane Lions
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.730923 - 0.269077RealScores: 117.182215 - 94.766124

Gold Coast 88 - 75 Port Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.637891 - 0.362109RealScores: 88.156286 - 74.949099

Melbourne 84 - 92 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.413752 - 0.586248RealScores: 84.129121 - 92.285851

Richmond 73 - 93 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.293272 - 0.706728RealScores: 73.163554 - 93.031856

Sydney Sydney 101 - 78 St Kilda
S.C.G. (NSW)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.731514 - 0.268486RealScores: 100.964550 - 78.484337

West Coast 72 - 90 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.313405 - 0.686595RealScores: 71.864237 - 89.710702

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	8 (8.25)	4	128.3
2	Geelong	8 (7.87)	4	123.2
3	Fremantle	8 (7.53)	4	120.7
4	Hawthorn	8 (8.10)	5	120.1
5	Collingwood	7 (7.25)	6	108.7
6	Gold Coast	7 (6.60)	5	108.0
7	St Kilda	7 (7.00)	6	105.9
8	Carlton	7 (6.89)	6	104.8
9	Western Bulldogs	7 (6.67)	6	101.6
10	Brisbane Lions	6 (6.06)	6	100.7
11	Melbourne	6 (6.48)	7	100.0
12	Port Adelaide	6 (5.80)	6	98.1
13	Greater Western Sydney	6 (5.66)	6	96.1
14	Adelaide	6 (5.56)	6	95.1
15	North Melbourne	5 (4.91)	7	88.0
16	West Coast	4 (4.09)	9	76.1
17	Richmond	4 (3.82)	8	75.7
18	Essendon	3 (3.44)	10	70.3

Round 14

Adelaide 90 - 86 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.550417 - 0.449583RealScores: 90.314899 - 86.005636

Brisbane Lions 120 - 71 Richmond
Gabba (QLD)0.91 wins - 0.09 winsRealProbs: 0.912093 - 0.087907RealScores: 120.003819 - 71.250263

Essendon 75 - 94 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.300684 - 0.699316RealScores: 74.661221 - 93.775924

Greater Western Sydney 88 - 86 Gold Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.522003 - 0.477997RealScores: 87.946063 - 86.481866

Hawthorn 84 - 69 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.662098 - 0.337902RealScores: 84.442951 - 68.964454

Port Adelaide 79 - 97 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.314378 - 0.685622RealScores: 79.020437 - 96.771073

Western Bulldogs 86 - 90 Geelong Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.444065 - 0.555935RealScores: 85.533087 - 90.404787

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	9 (8.91)	4	127.9
2	Hawthorn	9 (8.74)	5	120.3
3	Geelong	8 (8.41)	5	121.8
4	Fremantle	8 (7.90)	5	117.3
5	Collingwood	7 (7.25)	6	108.7
6	Gold Coast	7 (7.09)	6	107.2
7	St Kilda	7 (7.00)	6	105.9
8	Carlton	7 (6.89)	6	104.8
9	Brisbane Lions	7 (6.93)	6	104.6
10	Western Bulldogs	7 (7.13)	7	101.0
11	Melbourne	7 (6.95)	7	99.7
12	Port Adelaide	6 (6.15)	7	96.6
13	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.16)	7	96.5
14	Adelaide	6 (6.10)	7	95.8
15	North Melbourne	6 (5.58)	7	90.4
16	West Coast	4 (4.09)	9	76.1
17	Richmond	4 (3.94)	9	74.1
18	Essendon	4 (3.77)	10	70.9

Round 15

Adelaide 94 - 78 North Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.669381 - 0.330619RealScores: 94.396741 - 78.223089

Fremantle 92 - 81 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.608075 - 0.391925RealScores: 91.561608 - 81.335513

Gold Coast 86 - 85 Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.516988 - 0.483012RealScores: 85.856895 - 84.988870

Greater Western Sydney 87 - 79 Port Adelaide
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.587154 - 0.412846RealScores: 86.672032 - 78.679464

Richmond 80 - 76 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.550668 - 0.449332RealScores: 79.733454 - 75.511699

St Kilda 85 - 78 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.571293 - 0.428707RealScores: 84.821475 - 78.486681

Sydney Sydney 119 - 92 Brisbane Lions
S.C.G. (NSW)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.769995 - 0.230005RealScores: 119.332861 - 92.452298

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	10 (9.64)	4	128.0
2	Hawthorn	9 (8.74)	5	120.3
3	Geelong	9 (8.82)	5	119.2
4	Fremantle	8 (8.49)	6	116.9
5	Collingwood	8 (7.75)	6	108.0
6	Gold Coast	8 (7.59)	6	106.8
7	St Kilda	8 (7.56)	6	106.0
8	Carlton	7 (7.34)	7	103.9
9	Brisbane Lions	7 (7.20)	7	102.2
10	Western Bulldogs	7 (7.13)	7	101.0
11	Melbourne	7 (6.95)	7	99.7
12	Adelaide	7 (6.74)	7	97.4
13	Greater Western Sydney	7 (6.73)	7	97.4
14	Port Adelaide	7 (6.58)	7	96.2
15	North Melbourne	6 (5.94)	8	89.8
16	West Coast	5 (4.55)	9	77.2
17	Richmond	4 (4.48)	10	75.9
18	Essendon	4 (3.77)	10	70.9

Round 16

Brisbane Lions 94 - 92 Fremantle
Gabba (QLD)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.530880 - 0.469120RealScores: 94.446156 - 92.308492

Carlton Carlton 92 - 77 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.659734 - 0.340266RealScores: 92.240713 - 76.986503

Collingwood 97 - 77 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.711473 - 0.288527RealScores: 96.986817 - 76.629941

Essendon 78 - 77 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.512473 - 0.487527RealScores: 77.662736 - 77.330234

Geelong Geelong 104 - 80 Gold Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.753663 - 0.246337RealScores: 104.493902 - 79.538603

Port Adelaide 71 - 85 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.347696 - 0.652304RealScores: 70.833521 - 85.386669

St Kilda 82 - 79 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.542297 - 0.457703RealScores: 82.017645 - 78.743420

Sydney Sydney 112 - 79 Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.815829 - 0.184171RealScores: 111.698123 - 78.869606

West Coast 78 - 88 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.387338 - 0.612662RealScores: 77.689852 - 88.286995

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	10 (10.41)	5	128.9
2	Geelong	10 (9.54)	5	120.0
3	Hawthorn	9 (9.37)	6	120.3
4	Fremantle	9 (8.97)	6	115.3
5	Collingwood	8 (8.43)	7	109.1
6	St Kilda	8 (8.08)	7	105.9
7	Carlton	8 (7.97)	7	104.9
8	Gold Coast	8 (7.88)	7	104.2
9	Brisbane Lions	8 (7.71)	7	102.2
10	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.61)	7	100.7
11	Adelaide	7 (7.34)	8	98.4
12	Melbourne	7 (7.17)	8	97.3
13	Greater Western Sydney	7 (7.05)	8	96.0
14	Port Adelaide	7 (6.95)	8	95.3
15	North Melbourne	6 (6.30)	9	89.4
16	West Coast	5 (4.96)	10	77.9
17	Richmond	5 (4.98)	10	77.2
18	Essendon	4 (4.27)	11	72.5

Round 17

Adelaide 82 - 85 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.463616 - 0.536384RealScores: 82.495546 - 85.084325

Collingwood 103 - 94 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.607054 - 0.392946RealScores: 103.424806 - 93.549478

Fremantle 104 - 54 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.917051 - 0.082949RealScores: 103.699813 - 53.972200

Gold Coast 84 - 80 Western Bulldogs
Carrara (QLD)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.552553 - 0.447447RealScores: 84.315610 - 80.108505

Greater Western Sydney 85 - 84 Carlton Carlton
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.518475 - 0.481525RealScores: 85.157396 - 84.330243

Hawthorn 92 - 81 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.617296 - 0.382704RealScores: 92.472103 - 81.491294

Melbourne 89 - 79 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.604706 - 0.395294RealScores: 88.894780 - 79.270969

North Melbourne 80 - 109 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.21 wins - 0.79 winsRealProbs: 0.207213 - 0.792787RealScores: 79.502828 - 109.232921

West Coast 88 - 71 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.672358 - 0.327642RealScores: 87.877576 - 71.417707

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	11 (11.16)	5	129.4
2	Hawthorn	10 (9.97)	6	119.8
3	Fremantle	10 (9.85)	6	118.8
4	Geelong	10 (9.94)	6	117.8
5	Collingwood	9 (9.02)	7	109.2
6	St Kilda	9 (8.60)	7	105.7
7	Carlton	8 (8.47)	8	104.6
8	Gold Coast	8 (8.41)	8	104.3
9	Brisbane Lions	8 (8.12)	8	101.4
10	Western Bulldogs	8 (8.08)	8	100.3
11	Adelaide	8 (7.82)	8	98.3
12	Melbourne	8 (7.76)	8	98.1
13	Greater Western Sydney	8 (7.55)	8	96.3
14	Port Adelaide	7 (7.36)	9	94.9
15	North Melbourne	7 (6.55)	9	88.1
16	West Coast	6 (5.60)	10	80.0
17	Richmond	5 (5.10)	11	75.5
18	Essendon	5 (4.63)	11	73.0

Round 18

Brisbane Lions 115 - 86 North Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.787556 - 0.212444RealScores: 115.215202 - 86.157050

Carlton Carlton 88 - 84 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.558412 - 0.441588RealScores: 88.493266 - 83.788394

Collingwood 89 - 93 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.450436 - 0.549564RealScores: 89.420444 - 93.233252

Essendon 75 - 96 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.281291 - 0.718709RealScores: 74.738826 - 95.850828

Hawthorn 93 - 70 Gold Coast
York Park (TAS)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.736623 - 0.263377RealScores: 93.388388 - 70.350080

Port Adelaide 74 - 80 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.433414 - 0.566586RealScores: 74.394902 - 79.931273

Richmond 64 - 98 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.18 wins - 0.82 winsRealProbs: 0.178212 - 0.821788RealScores: 64.324629 - 97.993353

Sydney Sydney 122 - 63 West Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)0.96 wins - 0.04 winsRealProbs: 0.960351 - 0.039649RealScores: 121.842965 - 62.855604

Western Bulldogs 92 - 72 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.702972 - 0.297028RealScores: 91.661050 - 72.176141

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	12 (12.08)	5	132.3
2	Hawthorn	11 (10.67)	6	120.5
3	Fremantle	10 (10.39)	7	118.1
4	Geelong	10 (10.47)	7	117.0
5	Collingwood	9 (9.49)	8	108.4
6	St Kilda	9 (9.38)	8	107.9
7	Carlton	9 (9.01)	8	104.6
8	Brisbane Lions	9 (8.87)	8	103.1
9	Gold Coast	9 (8.71)	8	102.4
10	Western Bulldogs	9 (8.75)	8	101.7
11	Greater Western Sydney	8 (8.24)	9	97.9
12	Melbourne	8 (8.22)	9	97.9
13	Adelaide	8 (8.15)	9	97.1
14	Port Adelaide	8 (7.82)	9	94.8
15	North Melbourne	7 (6.81)	10	87.2
16	West Coast	6 (5.68)	11	77.9
17	Richmond	5 (5.32)	12	74.9
18	Essendon	5 (4.94)	12	73.3

Round 19

Adelaide 81 - 82 Port Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.484577 - 0.515423RealScores: 80.826107 - 81.192207

Essendon 66 - 103 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.15 wins - 0.85 winsRealProbs: 0.152000 - 0.848000RealScores: 65.872549 - 103.445036

Geelong Geelong 100 - 79 Carlton Carlton
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.717218 - 0.282782RealScores: 99.902254 - 78.946836

Gold Coast 85 - 83 St Kilda
Carrara (QLD)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.533685 - 0.466315RealScores: 85.100099 - 82.951738

Greater Western Sydney 92 - 87 Melbourne
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.561392 - 0.438608RealScores: 92.395230 - 87.479023

North Melbourne 69 - 98 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.215058 - 0.784942RealScores: 69.453493 - 98.180055

Richmond 66 - 115 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.09 wins - 0.91 winsRealProbs: 0.088125 - 0.911875RealScores: 66.432180 - 115.143264

West Coast 63 - 98 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.17 wins - 0.83 winsRealProbs: 0.166949 - 0.833051RealScores: 62.690060 - 97.993724

Western Bulldogs 98 - 91 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.582642 - 0.417358RealScores: 98.360828 - 91.265959

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	13 (12.95)	5	134.2
2	Hawthorn	11 (11.41)	7	121.6
3	Fremantle	11 (11.18)	7	119.9
4	Geelong	11 (11.15)	7	117.5
5	Collingwood	10 (10.29)	8	110.5
6	St Kilda	10 (9.87)	8	107.3
7	Carlton	9 (9.33)	9	102.9
8	Brisbane Lions	9 (9.31)	9	102.5
9	Gold Coast	9 (9.22)	9	102.4
10	Western Bulldogs	9 (9.30)	9	102.1
11	Greater Western Sydney	9 (8.77)	9	98.3
12	Melbourne	9 (8.68)	9	97.7
13	Adelaide	9 (8.65)	9	97.2
14	Port Adelaide	8 (8.32)	10	95.1
15	North Melbourne	7 (7.06)	11	86.2
16	West Coast	6 (5.90)	12	77.1
17	Richmond	5 (5.46)	13	73.7
18	Essendon	5 (5.14)	13	72.7

Round 20

Brisbane Lions 124 - 72 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.925958 - 0.074042RealScores: 123.928183 - 72.408032

Carlton Carlton 92 - 74 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.680819 - 0.319181RealScores: 91.741382 - 74.461323

Fremantle 89 - 72 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.675254 - 0.324746RealScores: 88.842495 - 72.103144

Melbourne 74 - 95 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.286219 - 0.713781RealScores: 74.400541 - 94.996989

North Melbourne 93 - 71 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.724356 - 0.275644RealScores: 92.913734 - 71.203517

Port Adelaide 95 - 64 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.799071 - 0.200929RealScores: 94.557557 - 64.005231

St Kilda 88 - 91 Geelong Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.458486 - 0.541514RealScores: 88.397710 - 91.238851

Sydney Sydney 107 - 77 Gold Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.789387 - 0.210613RealScores: 106.721331 - 77.429245

Western Bulldogs 92 - 75 Greater Western Sydney
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.673582 - 0.326418RealScores: 91.800113 - 75.222228

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	14 (13.69)	5	134.4
2	Hawthorn	12 (12.09)	7	121.9
3	Fremantle	12 (11.83)	7	120.1
4	Geelong	12 (11.66)	7	116.7
5	Collingwood	11 (10.65)	8	108.9
6	St Kilda	10 (10.35)	9	106.7
7	Brisbane Lions	10 (10.19)	9	105.3
8	Carlton	10 (9.98)	9	103.9
9	Western Bulldogs	10 (9.95)	9	103.1
10	Gold Coast	9 (9.48)	10	100.5
11	Greater Western Sydney	9 (9.13)	10	97.4
12	Port Adelaide	9 (9.07)	10	97.2
13	Melbourne	9 (9.01)	10	96.6
14	Adelaide	9 (9.00)	10	96.3
15	North Melbourne	8 (7.75)	11	88.0
16	West Coast	6 (6.14)	13	76.6
17	Richmond	6 (5.77)	13	73.9
18	Essendon	5 (5.26)	14	71.8

Round 21

Adelaide 99 - 64 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.832644 - 0.167356RealScores: 98.778414 - 63.534912

Collingwood 86 - 80 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.576554 - 0.423446RealScores: 86.156403 - 79.866214

Essendon 64 - 99 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.17 wins - 0.83 winsRealProbs: 0.172319 - 0.827681RealScores: 64.009032 - 98.525383

Geelong Geelong 103 - 72 Port Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.803237 - 0.196763RealScores: 103.177995 - 72.071376

Gold Coast 79 - 83 Fremantle
Carrara (QLD)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.452797 - 0.547203RealScores: 79.397138 - 82.724729

Greater Western Sydney 96 - 80 North Melbourne
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.663016 - 0.336984RealScores: 95.940020 - 80.374308

Hawthorn 89 - 84 Sydney Sydney
York Park (TAS)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.556066 - 0.443934RealScores: 88.569176 - 84.356575

St Kilda 102 - 92 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.606555 - 0.393445RealScores: 101.579988 - 92.161757

West Coast 79 - 94 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.338365 - 0.661635RealScores: 78.807573 - 94.242039

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	14 (14.17)	6	132.2
2	Hawthorn	13 (12.61)	7	121.0
3	Fremantle	12 (12.34)	8	119.2
4	Geelong	12 (12.42)	8	117.8
5	Collingwood	11 (11.20)	9	108.8
6	St Kilda	11 (10.93)	9	106.9
7	Western Bulldogs	11 (10.73)	9	105.1
8	Brisbane Lions	11 (10.62)	9	104.5
9	Carlton	10 (10.43)	10	103.3
10	Gold Coast	10 (9.96)	10	100.3
11	Adelaide	10 (9.79)	10	98.5
12	Greater Western Sydney	10 (9.76)	10	98.5
13	Melbourne	10 (9.64)	10	97.6
14	Port Adelaide	9 (9.32)	11	95.6
15	North Melbourne	8 (8.12)	12	87.8
16	West Coast	7 (6.51)	13	77.0
17	Richmond	6 (5.98)	14	73.4
18	Essendon	5 (5.48)	15	71.4

Round 22

Brisbane Lions 105 - 107 Geelong Geelong
Gabba (QLD)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.470963 - 0.529037RealScores: 105.240371 - 106.707968

Collingwood 96 - 74 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.729383 - 0.270617RealScores: 96.297046 - 74.047520

Fremantle 96 - 69 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.777265 - 0.222735RealScores: 96.358104 - 68.590279

Melbourne 83 - 87 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.442496 - 0.557504RealScores: 82.729998 - 87.009916

North Melbourne 84 - 90 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.425405 - 0.574595RealScores: 84.082497 - 90.091189

Port Adelaide 98 - 61 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.842770 - 0.157230RealScores: 97.986739 - 61.221288

Richmond 57 - 104 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.09 wins - 0.91 winsRealProbs: 0.094659 - 0.905341RealScores: 56.782934 - 104.237005

St Kilda 103 - 62 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.87 wins - 0.13 winsRealProbs: 0.868415 - 0.131585RealScores: 103.220466 - 62.354156

Sydney Sydney 103 - 75 Carlton Carlton
S.C.G. (NSW)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.779243 - 0.220757RealScores: 103.496133 - 75.483364

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	15 (14.90)	6	132.5
2	Hawthorn	13 (13.47)	8	123.3
3	Fremantle	13 (13.07)	8	120.2
4	Geelong	13 (12.92)	8	116.9
5	Collingwood	12 (11.88)	9	109.7
6	St Kilda	12 (11.75)	9	109.0
7	Western Bulldogs	11 (11.25)	10	105.1
8	Brisbane Lions	11 (11.12)	10	104.2
9	Carlton	11 (10.70)	10	101.5
10	Gold Coast	11 (10.50)	10	100.6
11	Port Adelaide	10 (10.11)	11	97.8
12	Melbourne	10 (10.11)	11	97.5
13	Adelaide	10 (10.10)	11	97.4
14	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.03)	11	97.0
15	North Melbourne	9 (8.58)	12	88.0
16	West Coast	7 (6.69)	14	76.1
17	Richmond	6 (6.13)	15	72.4
18	Essendon	6 (5.68)	15	71.0

Round 23

Adelaide 77 - 85 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.406443 - 0.593557RealScores: 77.031599 - 84.914911

Carlton Carlton 87 - 71 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.667616 - 0.332384RealScores: 87.211055 - 71.272561

Collingwood 83 - 84 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.481023 - 0.518977RealScores: 83.276781 - 83.703683

Geelong Geelong 121 - 63 Essendon
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.96 wins - 0.04 winsRealProbs: 0.955394 - 0.044606RealScores: 120.975278 - 63.119623

Gold Coast 98 - 101 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.456499 - 0.543501RealScores: 97.698245 - 100.513948

Greater Western Sydney 81 - 107 Sydney Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.23 wins - 0.77 winsRealProbs: 0.232975 - 0.767025RealScores: 80.629313 - 107.152911

North Melbourne 85 - 95 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.390020 - 0.609980RealScores: 84.902032 - 94.509753

West Coast 65 - 99 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.18 wins - 0.82 winsRealProbs: 0.177885 - 0.822115RealScores: 65.066546 - 98.781858

Western Bulldogs 97 - 61 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.839195 - 0.160805RealScores: 97.276343 - 61.054163

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	16 (15.62)	6	132.5
2	Hawthorn	14 (14.24)	8	124.4
3	Fremantle	14 (13.63)	8	119.7
4	Geelong	14 (13.83)	8	119.4
5	Collingwood	12 (12.38)	10	109.3
6	St Kilda	12 (12.25)	10	108.7
7	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.04)	10	107.0
8	Brisbane Lions	12 (11.63)	10	104.1
9	Carlton	11 (11.33)	11	102.3
10	Gold Coast	11 (10.99)	11	100.4
11	Melbourne	11 (10.69)	11	98.1
12	Adelaide	11 (10.54)	11	97.1
13	Port Adelaide	10 (10.48)	12	97.1
14	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.31)	12	95.8
15	North Melbourne	9 (9.00)	13	88.1
16	West Coast	7 (6.92)	15	75.6
17	Richmond	6 (6.34)	16	71.9
18	Essendon	6 (5.78)	16	70.0

Round 24

Carlton Carlton 92 - 78 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.653342 - 0.346658RealScores: 91.861320 - 77.626319

Essendon 81 - 78 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.538926 - 0.461074RealScores: 80.797117 - 78.498166

Fremantle 86 - 87 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.483543 - 0.516457RealScores: 86.135759 - 86.257943

Geelong Geelong 109 - 75 Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.823515 - 0.176485RealScores: 108.917218 - 75.001819

Hawthorn 87 - 70 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.679306 - 0.320694RealScores: 86.782007 - 69.649374

Melbourne 101 - 103 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.464400 - 0.535600RealScores: 101.344448 - 103.318201

Port Adelaide 84 - 79 Gold Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.569299 - 0.430701RealScores: 84.213189 - 78.892196

Richmond 64 - 101 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.16 wins - 0.84 winsRealProbs: 0.156441 - 0.843559RealScores: 64.023810 - 100.910145

St Kilda 96 - 75 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.714062 - 0.285938RealScores: 95.713467 - 75.087768

		W	L	%
1	Sydney	16 (16.12)	7	131.0
2	Hawthorn	15 (14.88)	8	124.4
3	Geelong	15 (14.60)	8	120.4
4	Fremantle	14 (14.13)	9	118.7
5	Collingwood	13 (13.18)	10	110.9
6	St Kilda	13 (12.92)	10	109.4
7	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.40)	11	105.7
8	Brisbane Lions	12 (12.13)	11	104.0
9	Carlton	12 (11.95)	11	103.0
10	Gold Coast	11 (11.46)	12	100.1
11	Melbourne	11 (11.19)	12	98.1
12	Port Adelaide	11 (11.01)	12	97.5
13	Adelaide	11 (10.77)	12	95.5
14	Greater Western Sydney	11 (10.70)	12	95.3
15	North Melbourne	9 (9.33)	14	87.7
16	West Coast	7 (7.42)	16	76.4
17	Richmond	7 (6.54)	16	71.5
18	Essendon	6 (6.28)	17	71.1

WILDCARD FINALS

Western Bulldogs 88 - 76 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)

Brisbane Lions 103 - 89 Carlton Carlton
Gabba (QLD)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Sydney Sydney 95 - 77 Fremantle
S.C.G. (NSW)

Hawthorn 92 - 81 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)

Collingwood 103 - 94 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)

St Kilda 82 - 79 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Fremantle 89 - 72 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)

Geelong Geelong 93 - 86 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 4

Sydney Sydney 107 - 89 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)

Hawthorn 85 - 68 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)

2027 AFL GRAND FINAL

Hawthorn 89 - 84 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE7

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Sydney	64.9	56.9	60.9
2	Hawthorn	57.1	63.0	60.1
3	Geelong	61.6	53.4	57.5
4	Fremantle	53.8	60.1	56.9
5	Brisbane Lions	63.5	47.2	55.4
6	St Kilda	54.1	56.0	55.0
7	Collingwood	54.9	54.9	54.9
8	Western Bulldogs	52.2	56.4	54.3
9	Gold Coast	53.7	53.2	53.4
10	Carlton	52.1	54.6	53.4
11	Melbourne	54.2	50.4	52.3
12	Greater Western Sydney	52.7	50.6	51.6
13	Port Adelaide	48.8	53.7	51.2
14	Adelaide	50.6	50.7	50.7
15	North Melbourne	49.8	48.3	49.0
16	West Coast	43.0	45.8	44.4
17	Richmond	40.6	45.6	43.1
18	Essendon	41.5	44.4	42.9

Hawthorn def Sydney	6.6%
Sydney def Hawthorn	5.7%
Sydney def Geelong	4.9%
Sydney def Fremantle	4.8%
Geelong def Sydney	3.6%
Hawthorn def Geelong	3.2%
Hawthorn def Fremantle	3.2%
Fremantle def Sydney	2.9%
Sydney def Collingwood	2.5%
Geelong def Hawthorn	2.3%
Sydney def St Kilda	2.3%
Geelong def Fremantle	1.9%
Hawthorn def Collingwood	1.9%
Fremantle def Hawthorn	1.8%
Sydney def Western Bulldogs	1.8%
Sydney def Brisbane Lions	1.7%
Hawthorn def St Kilda	1.6%
Fremantle def Geelong	1.5%
Collingwood def Sydney	1.4%
Sydney def Carlton	1.4%