Squiggle 2027

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		Wins	%
1	Hawthorn	15.5	133.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
2	Geelong	14.8	125.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
3	Sydney	14.4	121.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
4	Fremantle	14.2	122.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
5	Brisbane Lions	13.1	111.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
6	Collingwood	12.6	108.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
7	Western Bulldogs	12.4	108.0%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
8	Carlton	12.4	107.3%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
9	Adelaide	11.8	102.8%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
10	Melbourne	11.4	100.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
11	St Kilda	11.4	100.4%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12	Gold Coast	11.2	99.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
13	Greater Western Sydney	11.2	99.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
14	North Melbourne	9.9	91.0%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
15	Port Adelaide	9.4	87.5%	3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
16	West Coast	7.9	78.6%	5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
17	Richmond	7.1	73.5%	7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
18	Essendon	6.4	70.6%	9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 1

Adelaide 91 - 83 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.583494 - 0.416506RealScores: 90.723564 - 82.537298

Fremantle 85 - 70 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.655608 - 0.344392RealScores: 85.069279 - 70.205108

Hawthorn 102 - 85 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.679060 - 0.320940RealScores: 102.479790 - 85.371109

Melbourne 101 - 73 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.774659 - 0.225341RealScores: 100.930834 - 73.483263

North Melbourne 86 - 78 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.589300 - 0.410700RealScores: 86.437692 - 77.713230

Richmond 68 - 93 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.247890 - 0.752110RealScores: 67.964761 - 92.741653

St Kilda 82 - 85 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.467070 - 0.532930RealScores: 81.780450 - 85.144346

Sydney Sydney 99 - 96 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.531289 - 0.468711RealScores: 99.294438 - 96.092992

West Coast 79 - 89 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.388093 - 0.611907RealScores: 78.577215 - 89.385731

		W	L	%
1	Melbourne	1 (0.70)	0	137.4
2	Carlton	1 (0.68)	0	136.5
3	Fremantle	1 (0.61)	0	121.2
4	Hawthorn	1 (0.63)	0	120.0
5	Gold Coast	1 (0.57)	0	113.8
6	North Melbourne	1 (0.56)	0	111.2
7	Adelaide	1 (0.55)	0	109.9
8	Collingwood	1 (0.51)	0	104.1
9	Sydney	1 (0.51)	0	103.3
10	Geelong	0 (0.49)	1	96.8
11	St Kilda	0 (0.49)	1	96.0
12	Greater Western Sydney	0 (0.45)	1	91.0
13	Port Adelaide	0 (0.44)	1	89.9
14	West Coast	0 (0.43)	1	87.9
15	Brisbane Lions	0 (0.37)	1	83.3
16	Western Bulldogs	0 (0.39)	1	82.5
17	Richmond	0 (0.32)	1	73.3
18	Essendon	0 (0.30)	1	72.8

Round 2

Brisbane Lions 104 - 92 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.624344 - 0.375656RealScores: 104.086731 - 92.132775

Essendon 74 - 111 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.16 wins - 0.84 winsRealProbs: 0.160361 - 0.839639RealScores: 74.326843 - 110.616061

Fremantle 91 - 71 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.705792 - 0.294208RealScores: 90.769603 - 70.997106

Geelong Geelong 83 - 91 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.417997 - 0.582003RealScores: 83.038459 - 91.086217

Gold Coast 97 - 68 Richmond
Carrara (QLD)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.790970 - 0.209030RealScores: 97.006828 - 67.511338

Greater Western Sydney 98 - 72 West Coast
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.755772 - 0.244228RealScores: 97.635940 - 72.437088

North Melbourne 79 - 90 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.388913 - 0.611087RealScores: 79.289608 - 90.022597

Port Adelaide 82 - 86 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.463183 - 0.536817RealScores: 82.273124 - 86.019973

Western Bulldogs 83 - 78 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.554904 - 0.445096RealScores: 83.155246 - 77.657565

		W	L	%
1	Gold Coast	1 (1.30)	1	127.6
2	Fremantle	1 (1.26)	1	124.5
3	Carlton	1 (1.26)	1	124.1
4	Sydney	1 (1.28)	1	123.2
5	Melbourne	1 (1.22)	1	120.0
6	Hawthorn	1 (1.18)	1	114.9
7	Greater Western Sydney	1 (1.15)	1	110.4
8	North Melbourne	1 (0.98)	1	98.8
9	Brisbane Lions	1 (0.96)	1	97.4
10	Collingwood	1 (0.92)	1	95.4
11	St Kilda	1 (0.96)	1	94.7
12	Western Bulldogs	1 (0.93)	1	94.2
13	Geelong	1 (0.94)	1	94.1
14	Adelaide	1 (0.90)	1	93.3
15	Port Adelaide	1 (0.93)	1	92.8
16	West Coast	1 (0.73)	1	80.7
17	Richmond	1 (0.59)	1	71.4
18	Essendon	1 (0.53)	1	69.9

Round 3

Adelaide 83 - 81 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.522027 - 0.477973RealScores: 82.964485 - 80.689319

Carlton Carlton 96 - 95 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 95.943522 - 95.932937

Collingwood 80 - 81 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 80.663538 - 80.674123

Geelong Geelong 113 - 66 Richmond
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.903279 - 0.096721RealScores: 113.476426 - 66.413086

Gold Coast 94 - 80 North Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.654636 - 0.345364RealScores: 94.320120 - 79.547556

Hawthorn 108 - 60 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.91 wins - 0.09 winsRealProbs: 0.906636 - 0.093364RealScores: 107.882033 - 60.181004

St Kilda 87 - 86 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 86.556779 - 86.546194

Sydney Sydney 102 - 85 Greater Western Sydney
S.C.G. (NSW)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.683726 - 0.316274RealScores: 102.178170 - 84.613684

West Coast 79 - 78 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500313 - 0.499687RealScores: 78.488056 - 78.454918

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	2 (2.02)	1	131.9
2	Gold Coast	2 (1.92)	1	124.4
3	Sydney	2 (1.92)	1	122.4
4	Fremantle	2 (1.76)	1	115.6
5	Carlton	2 (1.76)	1	114.6
6	Geelong	2 (1.78)	1	113.9
7	Melbourne	2 (1.72)	1	112.9
8	Greater Western Sydney	2 (1.50)	1	99.8
9	Brisbane Lions	1 (1.46)	2	98.2
10	Collingwood	1 (1.42)	2	96.8
11	St Kilda	1 (1.46)	2	96.5
12	Adelaide	1 (1.40)	2	96.3
13	Western Bulldogs	1 (1.42)	2	95.3
14	Port Adelaide	1 (1.43)	2	95.0
15	North Melbourne	1 (1.36)	2	93.6
16	West Coast	1 (1.23)	2	86.4
17	Richmond	1 (0.75)	2	66.6
18	Essendon	1 (0.68)	2	65.1

Round 4

Adelaide 98 - 99 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 98.300219 - 98.310804

Carlton Carlton 88 - 84 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.534913 - 0.465087RealScores: 87.936880 - 84.377252

Essendon 74 - 95 North Melbourne
Norwood Oval (SA)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.288731 - 0.711269RealScores: 74.275200 - 94.611034

Fremantle 73 - 81 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.415181 - 0.584819RealScores: 72.845059 - 81.154372

Gold Coast 88 - 87 Greater Western Sydney
Barossa Park (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.511985 - 0.488015RealScores: 87.766658 - 86.515235

Port Adelaide 74 - 83 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.409143 - 0.590857RealScores: 73.978133 - 82.846609

Richmond 76 - 79 West Coast
Norwood Oval (SA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.468731 - 0.531269RealScores: 76.077850 - 79.277302

St Kilda 82 - 98 Geelong Geelong
Barossa Park (SA)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.340314 - 0.659686RealScores: 82.451931 - 97.701530

Sydney Sydney 97 - 85 Collingwood
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.621107 - 0.378893RealScores: 97.101189 - 85.445667

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	3 (2.59)	1	126.9
2	Sydney	3 (2.52)	1	120.2
3	Gold Coast	2 (2.42)	2	118.0
4	Geelong	2 (2.41)	2	115.1
5	Carlton	2 (2.29)	2	111.9
6	Fremantle	2 (2.20)	2	108.7
7	Melbourne	2 (2.20)	2	108.4
8	North Melbourne	2 (2.02)	2	101.1
9	Greater Western Sydney	2 (2.00)	2	99.5
10	Western Bulldogs	2 (1.99)	2	99.1
11	Brisbane Lions	2 (1.96)	2	98.7
12	Adelaide	2 (1.90)	2	97.4
13	Collingwood	2 (1.82)	2	94.4
14	Port Adelaide	2 (1.86)	2	93.6
15	St Kilda	2 (1.83)	2	93.2
16	West Coast	2 (1.75)	2	90.4
17	Richmond	1 (1.23)	3	72.7
18	Essendon	1 (1.01)	3	68.2

Round 5

Adelaide 90 - 81 Gold Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.595106 - 0.404894RealScores: 90.043946 - 80.782975

Brisbane Lions 110 - 91 Greater Western Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.703837 - 0.296163RealScores: 110.083837 - 90.510844

Carlton Carlton 84 - 83 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.501683 - 0.498317RealScores: 83.099728 - 82.921954

Essendon 71 - 115 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.11 wins - 0.89 winsRealProbs: 0.113631 - 0.886369RealScores: 70.705151 - 114.668230

Fremantle 98 - 64 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.823473 - 0.176527RealScores: 97.571346 - 63.661874

Melbourne 90 - 100 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.403600 - 0.596400RealScores: 90.212538 - 99.592942

Richmond 74 - 90 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.332930 - 0.667070RealScores: 74.180635 - 90.132975

St Kilda 89 - 71 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.686756 - 0.313244RealScores: 88.587145 - 70.724817

Western Bulldogs 71 - 86 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.350145 - 0.649855RealScores: 71.455042 - 85.778240

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	3 (3.21)	2	125.6
2	Geelong	3 (3.24)	2	123.2
3	Sydney	3 (3.09)	2	118.1
4	Fremantle	3 (2.97)	2	116.4
5	Gold Coast	3 (2.84)	2	111.7
6	Carlton	3 (2.79)	2	109.6
7	North Melbourne	3 (2.66)	2	104.8
8	Melbourne	3 (2.62)	2	104.2
9	Brisbane Lions	3 (2.63)	2	103.0
10	Adelaide	2 (2.48)	3	100.0
11	St Kilda	2 (2.48)	3	98.5
12	Western Bulldogs	2 (2.37)	3	95.8
13	Collingwood	2 (2.32)	3	95.4
14	Greater Western Sydney	2 (2.34)	3	95.4
15	Port Adelaide	2 (2.20)	3	90.7
16	West Coast	2 (1.98)	3	84.8
17	Richmond	2 (1.59)	3	74.5
18	Essendon	1 (1.18)	4	66.8

Round 6

Brisbane Lions 120 - 75 West Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.89 wins - 0.11 winsRealProbs: 0.889019 - 0.110981RealScores: 119.868028 - 75.431197

Collingwood 102 - 67 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.826793 - 0.173207RealScores: 101.722842 - 67.335243

Fremantle 91 - 68 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.733283 - 0.266717RealScores: 90.821290 - 68.148646

Geelong Geelong 110 - 78 North Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.812459 - 0.187541RealScores: 109.980679 - 77.619986

Gold Coast 74 - 91 Hawthorn
Carrara (QLD)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.326144 - 0.673856RealScores: 74.189635 - 90.793910

Greater Western Sydney 83 - 84 Western Bulldogs
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499512 - 0.500488RealScores: 83.457473 - 83.509138

Melbourne 99 - 71 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.780711 - 0.219289RealScores: 98.860915 - 70.665540

Port Adelaide 75 - 84 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.412797 - 0.587203RealScores: 75.281242 - 83.811565

Sydney Sydney 102 - 81 Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.723648 - 0.276352RealScores: 102.357004 - 80.722258

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	4 (4.00)	2	126.1
2	Hawthorn	4 (3.86)	2	125.1
3	Sydney	4 (3.78)	2	119.5
4	Fremantle	4 (3.66)	2	119.1
5	Brisbane Lions	3 (3.47)	3	110.6
6	Carlton	3 (3.36)	3	109.8
7	Melbourne	3 (3.35)	3	109.3
8	Gold Coast	3 (3.20)	3	106.2
9	Collingwood	3 (3.10)	3	102.7
10	North Melbourne	3 (2.90)	3	97.5
11	Western Bulldogs	3 (2.87)	3	96.5
12	Greater Western Sydney	3 (2.84)	3	96.1
13	Adelaide	3 (2.80)	3	95.9
14	St Kilda	3 (2.79)	3	94.4
15	Port Adelaide	3 (2.63)	3	90.6
16	West Coast	2 (2.14)	4	80.1
17	Richmond	2 (1.86)	4	74.0
18	Essendon	1 (1.41)	5	66.7

Round 7

Brisbane Lions 106 - 104 Sydney Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.516629 - 0.483371RealScores: 106.023954 - 104.296368

Essendon 65 - 98 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.18 wins - 0.82 winsRealProbs: 0.182258 - 0.817742RealScores: 65.020646 - 98.117111

Greater Western Sydney 87 - 100 Geelong Geelong
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.368088 - 0.631912RealScores: 87.192347 - 99.845337

Hawthorn 89 - 71 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.694476 - 0.305524RealScores: 89.236572 - 70.607965

Melbourne 89 - 87 Adelaide
Traeger Park (NT)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.525819 - 0.474181RealScores: 89.412885 - 86.756455

North Melbourne 81 - 89 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.416912 - 0.583088RealScores: 80.793585 - 88.942157

Richmond 70 - 83 Port Adelaide
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.365228 - 0.634772RealScores: 70.164393 - 83.082252

West Coast 75 - 92 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.326264 - 0.673736RealScores: 75.496445 - 92.089146

Western Bulldogs 88 - 76 Gold Coast
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.627964 - 0.372036RealScores: 88.419407 - 76.131354

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	5 (4.52)	2	125.3
2	Geelong	5 (4.61)	2	124.4
3	Fremantle	4 (4.43)	3	123.2
4	Sydney	4 (4.27)	3	115.9
5	Brisbane Lions	4 (3.98)	3	109.2
6	Melbourne	4 (3.87)	3	108.4
7	Collingwood	4 (3.74)	3	105.2
8	Carlton	4 (3.70)	3	105.1
9	Gold Coast	4 (3.59)	3	103.1
10	Western Bulldogs	3 (3.48)	4	99.2
11	North Melbourne	3 (3.33)	4	96.6
12	St Kilda	3 (3.36)	4	96.5
13	Adelaide	3 (3.28)	4	96.1
14	Greater Western Sydney	3 (3.23)	4	94.7
15	Port Adelaide	3 (3.25)	4	94.0
16	West Coast	2 (2.50)	5	80.4
17	Richmond	2 (2.25)	5	75.3
18	Essendon	2 (1.63)	5	66.6

Round 8

Carlton Carlton 85 - 94 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.405448 - 0.594552RealScores: 84.745343 - 93.955227

Collingwood 81 - 83 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.484704 - 0.515296RealScores: 80.951463 - 82.542883

Fremantle 101 - 85 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.667959 - 0.332041RealScores: 100.994753 - 84.957296

Gold Coast 103 - 67 Essendon
Carrara (QLD)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.837337 - 0.162663RealScores: 102.607551 - 66.665196

Hawthorn 98 - 70 Greater Western Sydney
York Park (TAS)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.775223 - 0.224777RealScores: 97.570565 - 70.053892

Melbourne 102 - 71 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.805625 - 0.194375RealScores: 102.263305 - 70.835651

Port Adelaide 75 - 87 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.372809 - 0.627191RealScores: 74.968731 - 87.185375

St Kilda 94 - 66 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.777887 - 0.222113RealScores: 94.104645 - 66.259926

Sydney Sydney 109 - 78 North Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.801457 - 0.198543RealScores: 109.086128 - 78.217249

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	5 (5.25)	3	126.9
2	Geelong	5 (5.19)	3	122.6
3	Fremantle	5 (5.07)	3	122.6
4	Sydney	5 (5.03)	3	118.5
5	Melbourne	5 (4.63)	3	112.2
6	Gold Coast	4 (4.38)	4	108.4
7	Brisbane Lions	4 (4.34)	4	105.9
8	Collingwood	4 (4.23)	4	104.3
9	Carlton	4 (4.12)	4	103.0
10	St Kilda	4 (4.10)	4	101.1
11	Western Bulldogs	4 (3.98)	4	99.5
12	Adelaide	4 (3.89)	4	98.3
13	Port Adelaide	4 (3.64)	4	92.9
14	North Melbourne	4 (3.57)	4	92.8
15	Greater Western Sydney	3 (3.49)	5	91.7
16	West Coast	3 (2.73)	5	78.9
17	Richmond	3 (2.51)	5	74.7
18	Essendon	2 (1.84)	6	66.4

Round 9

Adelaide 87 - 96 Geelong Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.405902 - 0.594098RealScores: 87.075891 - 96.243802

Brisbane Lions 107 - 86 St Kilda
Gabba (QLD)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.715954 - 0.284046RealScores: 107.014693 - 86.191649

Carlton Carlton 81 - 79 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.513856 - 0.486144RealScores: 80.600043 - 79.286397

Greater Western Sydney 78 - 87 Fremantle
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.407349 - 0.592651RealScores: 78.006009 - 87.040337

Hawthorn 99 - 60 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.858808 - 0.141192RealScores: 99.225227 - 59.937918

Melbourne 93 - 84 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.588583 - 0.411417RealScores: 92.927404 - 84.269324

North Melbourne 80 - 93 Collingwood
Docklands (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.369519 - 0.630481RealScores: 80.289149 - 92.809742

Richmond 79 - 76 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.537747 - 0.462253RealScores: 79.381290 - 75.653686

West Coast 76 - 107 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.20 wins - 0.80 winsRealProbs: 0.202083 - 0.797917RealScores: 76.157274 - 106.557284

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	6 (6.07)	3	130.5
2	Fremantle	6 (5.65)	3	121.3
3	Geelong	6 (5.78)	3	121.2
4	Sydney	6 (5.78)	3	120.6
5	Melbourne	5 (5.21)	4	112.0
6	Brisbane Lions	5 (5.02)	4	107.7
7	Gold Coast	5 (4.80)	4	106.1
8	Collingwood	5 (4.85)	4	105.5
9	Carlton	5 (4.62)	4	102.8
10	Western Bulldogs	4 (4.48)	5	99.4
11	St Kilda	4 (4.42)	5	98.2
12	Adelaide	4 (4.30)	5	97.3
13	North Melbourne	4 (3.96)	5	92.1
14	Greater Western Sydney	4 (3.91)	5	91.5
15	Port Adelaide	4 (3.82)	5	88.7
16	West Coast	3 (2.98)	6	78.0
17	Richmond	3 (3.04)	6	77.5
18	Essendon	2 (2.31)	7	68.9

Round 10

Collingwood 98 - 66 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.814320 - 0.185680RealScores: 98.436903 - 65.818471

Essendon 73 - 95 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.273575 - 0.726425RealScores: 73.003997 - 94.935398

Fremantle 96 - 72 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.744944 - 0.255056RealScores: 95.840576 - 71.877187

Geelong Geelong 119 - 65 West Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.94 wins - 0.06 winsRealProbs: 0.937379 - 0.062621RealScores: 118.500035 - 64.598243

Gold Coast 83 - 84 Carlton Carlton
Marrara Oval (NT)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.485713 - 0.514287RealScores: 82.931844 - 84.133635

Port Adelaide 87 - 102 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.338187 - 0.661813RealScores: 86.750909 - 102.202329

St Kilda 90 - 80 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.595892 - 0.404108RealScores: 89.788612 - 80.455116

Sydney Sydney 85 - 89 Hawthorn
S.C.G. (NSW)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.459710 - 0.540290RealScores: 85.111274 - 88.932248

Western Bulldogs 91 - 75 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.666240 - 0.333760RealScores: 91.363119 - 75.490043

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	7 (6.60)	3	127.5
2	Geelong	7 (6.67)	3	126.2
3	Fremantle	6 (6.36)	4	122.5
4	Sydney	6 (6.25)	4	118.1
5	Collingwood	6 (5.62)	4	109.1
6	Brisbane Lions	6 (5.66)	4	108.7
7	Melbourne	6 (5.50)	4	107.8
8	Gold Coast	5 (5.30)	5	105.4
9	Carlton	5 (5.13)	5	102.7
10	Western Bulldogs	5 (5.12)	5	101.4
11	Adelaide	5 (5.00)	5	100.1
12	St Kilda	5 (5.00)	5	99.5
13	Greater Western Sydney	4 (4.33)	6	91.3
14	North Melbourne	4 (4.32)	6	91.1
15	Port Adelaide	4 (4.18)	6	88.2
16	Richmond	3 (3.27)	7	76.3
17	West Coast	3 (3.09)	7	75.1
18	Essendon	3 (2.62)	7	69.7

Round 11

Carlton Carlton 78 - 79 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.485596 - 0.514404RealScores: 78.343358 - 79.416368

Geelong Geelong 108 - 82 Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.757024 - 0.242976RealScores: 107.696760 - 82.352645

Greater Western Sydney 104 - 67 Essendon
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.843508 - 0.156492RealScores: 104.096887 - 67.218307

Hawthorn 95 - 67 St Kilda
York Park (TAS)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.780420 - 0.219580RealScores: 94.810456 - 66.651394

North Melbourne 90 - 78 West Coast
Hands Oval (WA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.621371 - 0.378629RealScores: 89.889242 - 78.209398

Port Adelaide 77 - 86 Collingwood
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.405855 - 0.594145RealScores: 76.733869 - 85.906187

Western Bulldogs 86 - 89 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.466625 - 0.533375RealScores: 86.351177 - 89.320158

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	7 (7.34)	4	128.7
2	Geelong	7 (7.39)	4	126.6
3	Fremantle	7 (6.86)	4	120.4
4	Sydney	7 (6.77)	4	116.7
5	Collingwood	6 (6.20)	5	109.3
6	Brisbane Lions	6 (5.66)	4	108.7
7	Melbourne	6 (5.78)	5	104.2
8	Carlton	6 (5.62)	5	102.3
9	Western Bulldogs	6 (5.60)	5	100.9
10	Gold Coast	5 (5.30)	5	105.4
11	Adelaide	5 (5.00)	5	100.1
12	St Kilda	5 (5.26)	6	96.5
13	Greater Western Sydney	5 (5.13)	6	95.6
14	North Melbourne	5 (4.92)	6	93.0
15	Port Adelaide	5 (4.60)	6	88.3
16	Richmond	3 (3.27)	7	76.3
17	West Coast	3 (3.48)	8	76.1
18	Essendon	3 (2.82)	8	69.2

Round 12

Brisbane Lions 107 - 91 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.666084 - 0.333916RealScores: 106.741196 - 90.883034

Collingwood 73 - 91 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.308993 - 0.691007RealScores: 72.605336 - 90.888214

Essendon 68 - 97 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.21 wins - 0.79 winsRealProbs: 0.209372 - 0.790628RealScores: 67.759221 - 97.210647

North Melbourne 69 - 96 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.224732 - 0.775268RealScores: 68.950780 - 96.472920

Richmond 72 - 91 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.295701 - 0.704299RealScores: 71.813875 - 91.433894

West Coast 73 - 91 Carlton Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.317829 - 0.682171RealScores: 73.271080 - 90.683238

Western Bulldogs 89 - 81 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.589180 - 0.410820RealScores: 89.170633 - 80.555712

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	8 (8.00)	4	128.4
2	Fremantle	8 (7.60)	4	122.0
3	Geelong	7 (7.39)	4	126.6
4	Sydney	7 (6.77)	4	116.7
5	Collingwood	7 (6.54)	5	106.6
6	Brisbane Lions	6 (6.30)	5	109.4
7	Carlton	6 (6.28)	6	103.9
8	Gold Coast	6 (5.66)	5	103.0
9	Melbourne	6 (6.20)	6	103.0
10	Adelaide	6 (5.67)	5	102.2
11	Western Bulldogs	6 (6.17)	6	101.8
12	St Kilda	6 (6.01)	6	99.7
13	Greater Western Sydney	5 (5.13)	6	95.6
14	North Melbourne	5 (5.19)	7	91.1
15	Port Adelaide	5 (4.60)	6	88.3
16	Richmond	4 (3.60)	7	76.5
17	West Coast	4 (3.82)	8	76.5
18	Essendon	3 (3.07)	9	69.2

Round 13

Adelaide 74 - 90 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.334511 - 0.665489RealScores: 74.242892 - 90.044200

Carlton Carlton 101 - 65 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.838596 - 0.161404RealScores: 100.771201 - 64.639451

Geelong Geelong 115 - 95 Brisbane Lions
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.712090 - 0.287910RealScores: 115.469398 - 95.048556

Gold Coast 92 - 71 Port Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.712772 - 0.287228RealScores: 91.870896 - 71.379297

Melbourne 86 - 90 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.454080 - 0.545920RealScores: 86.108251 - 90.081474

Richmond 73 - 94 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.279327 - 0.720673RealScores: 72.605786 - 93.924954

Sydney Sydney 102 - 78 St Kilda
S.C.G. (NSW)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.740927 - 0.259073RealScores: 101.715132 - 78.200862

West Coast 72 - 90 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.311753 - 0.688247RealScores: 71.851386 - 89.860878

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	9 (8.64)	4	127.9
2	Geelong	8 (8.07)	4	126.1
3	Fremantle	8 (7.60)	4	122.0
4	Sydney	7 (7.48)	5	117.7
5	Carlton	7 (7.08)	6	107.1
6	Brisbane Lions	7 (6.62)	5	106.7
7	Collingwood	7 (7.07)	6	106.4
8	Western Bulldogs	7 (6.84)	6	103.4
9	Melbourne	7 (6.67)	6	102.4
10	Gold Coast	6 (6.34)	6	104.9
11	Adelaide	6 (6.03)	6	100.4
12	Greater Western Sydney	6 (5.82)	6	97.9
13	St Kilda	6 (6.30)	7	97.6
14	North Melbourne	5 (5.19)	7	91.1
15	Port Adelaide	5 (4.92)	7	87.4
16	West Coast	4 (4.16)	9	76.7
17	Richmond	4 (3.91)	8	76.6
18	Essendon	3 (3.27)	10	68.9

Round 14

Adelaide 93 - 84 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.594497 - 0.405503RealScores: 92.533870 - 83.635469

Brisbane Lions 122 - 69 Richmond
Gabba (QLD)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.933874 - 0.066126RealScores: 122.417405 - 69.256605

Essendon 73 - 96 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.271412 - 0.728588RealScores: 73.361199 - 95.525035

Greater Western Sydney 90 - 84 Gold Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.563325 - 0.436675RealScores: 89.955988 - 84.325906

Hawthorn 86 - 68 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.686634 - 0.313366RealScores: 85.924841 - 68.074590

Port Adelaide 78 - 99 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.284567 - 0.715433RealScores: 77.819335 - 98.587957

Western Bulldogs 84 - 91 Geelong Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.422959 - 0.577041RealScores: 84.405909 - 91.459899

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	9 (9.30)	5	127.7
2	Geelong	9 (8.63)	4	124.7
3	Sydney	8 (8.16)	5	118.4
4	Fremantle	8 (7.94)	5	118.2
5	Brisbane Lions	8 (7.51)	5	110.7
6	Carlton	7 (7.08)	6	107.1
7	Collingwood	7 (7.07)	6	106.4
8	Gold Coast	7 (6.79)	6	104.0
9	Western Bulldogs	7 (7.27)	7	102.5
10	Melbourne	7 (7.09)	7	101.5
11	Adelaide	7 (6.61)	6	101.2
12	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.36)	7	98.6
13	St Kilda	6 (6.30)	7	97.6
14	North Melbourne	6 (5.88)	7	93.6
15	Port Adelaide	5 (5.24)	8	86.7
16	West Coast	4 (4.16)	9	76.7
17	Richmond	4 (4.02)	9	74.6
18	Essendon	4 (3.58)	10	69.4

Round 15

Adelaide 96 - 77 North Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.701837 - 0.298163RealScores: 96.062997 - 76.693325

Fremantle 91 - 82 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.600626 - 0.399374RealScores: 91.112377 - 81.687874

Gold Coast 86 - 84 Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.527875 - 0.472125RealScores: 86.382055 - 84.442440

Greater Western Sydney 92 - 73 Port Adelaide
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.701735 - 0.298265RealScores: 92.392007 - 73.032616

Richmond 80 - 76 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.548141 - 0.451859RealScores: 79.660654 - 75.694498

St Kilda 79 - 84 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.448481 - 0.551519RealScores: 79.473630 - 83.781681

Sydney Sydney 112 - 98 Brisbane Lions
S.C.G. (NSW)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.644863 - 0.355137RealScores: 112.088280 - 98.232043

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	9 (9.30)	5	127.7
2	Geelong	9 (9.05)	5	122.0
3	Sydney	9 (8.79)	5	118.0
4	Fremantle	9 (8.53)	5	117.6
5	Brisbane Lions	8 (7.89)	6	108.7
6	Carlton	8 (7.61)	6	107.0
7	Collingwood	8 (7.56)	6	105.8
8	Gold Coast	7 (7.30)	7	103.8
9	Adelaide	7 (7.28)	7	102.7
10	Western Bulldogs	7 (7.27)	7	102.5
11	Melbourne	7 (7.09)	7	101.5
12	Greater Western Sydney	7 (7.04)	7	100.3
13	St Kilda	7 (6.77)	7	97.4
14	North Melbourne	6 (6.21)	8	92.5
15	Port Adelaide	6 (5.57)	8	86.1
16	West Coast	5 (4.63)	9	77.8
17	Richmond	5 (4.55)	9	76.4
18	Essendon	4 (3.58)	10	69.4

Round 16

Brisbane Lions 96 - 90 Fremantle
Gabba (QLD)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.560376 - 0.439624RealScores: 95.526949 - 90.425100

Carlton Carlton 93 - 77 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.664965 - 0.335035RealScores: 92.531780 - 76.780425

Collingwood 95 - 79 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.667911 - 0.332089RealScores: 94.673346 - 78.640500

Essendon 77 - 78 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.471729 - 0.528271RealScores: 76.577597 - 78.457379

Geelong Geelong 107 - 77 Gold Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.791434 - 0.208566RealScores: 106.878231 - 77.322993

Port Adelaide 66 - 93 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.23 wins - 0.77 winsRealProbs: 0.225264 - 0.774736RealScores: 65.853067 - 93.310078

St Kilda 77 - 83 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.432328 - 0.567672RealScores: 77.481687 - 83.331124

Sydney Sydney 107 - 83 Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.746881 - 0.253119RealScores: 106.993602 - 82.811878

West Coast 76 - 91 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.344620 - 0.655380RealScores: 75.937307 - 90.779998

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	10 (10.04)	5	128.6
2	Geelong	10 (9.80)	5	123.0
3	Sydney	9 (9.50)	6	118.7
4	Fremantle	9 (8.98)	6	115.7
5	Brisbane Lions	8 (8.43)	7	108.6
6	Carlton	8 (8.25)	7	107.9
7	Collingwood	8 (8.20)	7	106.7
8	Adelaide	8 (7.91)	7	103.8
9	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.82)	7	102.8
10	Gold Coast	8 (7.55)	7	101.2
11	Melbourne	7 (7.38)	8	99.6
12	Greater Western Sydney	7 (7.39)	8	99.0
13	St Kilda	7 (7.22)	8	97.1
14	North Melbourne	7 (6.57)	8	91.9
15	Port Adelaide	6 (5.83)	9	85.0
16	West Coast	5 (5.00)	10	78.2
17	Richmond	5 (5.06)	10	77.8
18	Essendon	4 (4.07)	11	70.9

Round 17

Adelaide 89 - 78 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.621945 - 0.378055RealScores: 89.178490 - 77.691360

Collingwood 99 - 98 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.518833 - 0.481167RealScores: 98.540783 - 97.678723

Fremantle 105 - 53 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.925164 - 0.074836RealScores: 104.851041 - 53.492825

Gold Coast 83 - 81 Western Bulldogs
Carrara (QLD)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.526020 - 0.473980RealScores: 83.058128 - 81.492633

Greater Western Sydney 85 - 84 Carlton Carlton
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.517423 - 0.482577RealScores: 85.114157 - 84.389492

Hawthorn 94 - 80 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.639573 - 0.360427RealScores: 93.744096 - 80.380580

Melbourne 94 - 74 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.710554 - 0.289446RealScores: 94.277503 - 74.015594

North Melbourne 83 - 104 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.284018 - 0.715982RealScores: 83.238674 - 104.064704

West Coast 89 - 70 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.693730 - 0.306270RealScores: 88.977384 - 70.423290

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	11 (10.65)	5	127.8
2	Geelong	10 (10.18)	6	120.4
3	Fremantle	10 (9.87)	6	119.3
4	Sydney	10 (10.18)	6	119.1
5	Brisbane Lions	9 (8.93)	7	107.9
6	Carlton	9 (8.75)	7	107.3
7	Collingwood	9 (8.70)	7	106.3
8	Adelaide	9 (8.51)	7	104.4
9	Western Bulldogs	8 (8.32)	8	102.5
10	Gold Coast	8 (8.05)	8	101.3
11	Melbourne	8 (8.06)	8	101.0
12	Greater Western Sydney	8 (7.89)	8	99.1
13	St Kilda	8 (7.62)	8	96.5
14	North Melbourne	7 (6.89)	9	91.0
15	Port Adelaide	6 (6.15)	10	84.6
16	West Coast	6 (5.66)	10	80.5
17	Richmond	5 (5.17)	11	75.9
18	Essendon	4 (4.41)	12	71.4

Round 18

Brisbane Lions 117 - 84 North Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.812685 - 0.187315RealScores: 116.605404 - 84.213562

Carlton Carlton 89 - 83 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.570325 - 0.429675RealScores: 89.116682 - 83.197450

Collingwood 86 - 96 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.389327 - 0.610673RealScores: 86.302370 - 96.456057

Essendon 73 - 98 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.248315 - 0.751685RealScores: 73.293495 - 98.021700

Hawthorn 97 - 68 Gold Coast
York Park (TAS)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.788884 - 0.211116RealScores: 97.105650 - 67.877895

Port Adelaide 69 - 86 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.321996 - 0.678004RealScores: 69.376188 - 86.382140

Richmond 67 - 93 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.24 wins - 0.76 winsRealProbs: 0.239390 - 0.760610RealScores: 67.300718 - 93.063853

Sydney Sydney 117 - 66 West Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.922874 - 0.077126RealScores: 116.803876 - 65.910682

Western Bulldogs 90 - 74 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.665049 - 0.334951RealScores: 89.706561 - 73.947243

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	11 (11.40)	6	128.6
2	Sydney	11 (11.06)	6	121.8
3	Geelong	11 (10.77)	6	119.8
4	Fremantle	11 (10.52)	6	119.6
5	Brisbane Lions	10 (9.70)	7	109.5
6	Carlton	9 (9.30)	8	107.3
7	Collingwood	9 (9.11)	8	105.2
8	Western Bulldogs	9 (8.96)	8	103.5
9	Adelaide	9 (8.87)	8	103.0
10	Greater Western Sydney	9 (8.61)	8	100.9
11	Melbourne	9 (8.51)	8	100.6
12	Gold Coast	8 (8.31)	9	99.2
13	St Kilda	8 (8.34)	9	98.4
14	North Melbourne	7 (7.12)	10	89.6
15	Port Adelaide	7 (6.51)	10	84.3
16	West Coast	6 (5.78)	11	78.7
17	Richmond	5 (5.45)	12	75.7
18	Essendon	5 (4.70)	12	71.6

Round 19

Adelaide 89 - 73 Port Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.660471 - 0.339529RealScores: 88.739078 - 73.415027

Essendon 66 - 103 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.16 wins - 0.84 winsRealProbs: 0.157649 - 0.842351RealScores: 66.178330 - 102.879755

Geelong Geelong 100 - 79 Carlton Carlton
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.722898 - 0.277102RealScores: 100.127753 - 78.572817

Gold Coast 88 - 79 St Kilda
Carrara (QLD)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.600698 - 0.399302RealScores: 88.420665 - 79.433815

Greater Western Sydney 93 - 87 Melbourne
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.572769 - 0.427231RealScores: 92.904135 - 86.827804

North Melbourne 68 - 100 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.19 wins - 0.81 winsRealProbs: 0.189347 - 0.810653RealScores: 68.270484 - 100.382477

Richmond 69 - 110 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.13 wins - 0.87 winsRealProbs: 0.133370 - 0.866630RealScores: 69.458239 - 110.027199

West Coast 62 - 99 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.16 wins - 0.84 winsRealProbs: 0.157528 - 0.842472RealScores: 62.256659 - 98.976561

Western Bulldogs 96 - 93 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.538674 - 0.461326RealScores: 95.764240 - 93.123208

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	12 (12.17)	6	129.6
2	Sydney	12 (11.88)	6	123.5
3	Fremantle	11 (11.31)	7	121.4
4	Geelong	11 (11.45)	7	120.2
5	Brisbane Lions	10 (10.19)	8	108.9
6	Collingwood	10 (9.91)	8	107.4
7	Carlton	10 (9.61)	8	105.3
8	Adelaide	10 (9.51)	8	103.9
9	Western Bulldogs	9 (9.47)	9	103.5
10	Greater Western Sydney	9 (9.15)	9	101.2
11	Melbourne	9 (8.97)	9	100.2
12	Gold Coast	9 (8.88)	9	99.8
13	St Kilda	9 (8.76)	9	97.9
14	North Melbourne	7 (7.35)	11	88.3
15	Port Adelaide	7 (6.87)	11	84.2
16	West Coast	6 (5.99)	12	77.8
17	Richmond	6 (5.63)	12	74.9
18	Essendon	5 (4.90)	13	71.1

Round 20

Brisbane Lions 128 - 69 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.96 wins - 0.04 winsRealProbs: 0.959299 - 0.040701RealScores: 128.078701 - 69.333040

Carlton Carlton 90 - 76 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.653368 - 0.346632RealScores: 90.387340 - 75.753931

Fremantle 91 - 70 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.715947 - 0.284053RealScores: 91.080022 - 70.257639

Melbourne 73 - 97 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.252123 - 0.747877RealScores: 72.984314 - 97.278708

North Melbourne 94 - 71 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.734323 - 0.265677RealScores: 93.549907 - 70.763704

Port Adelaide 89 - 68 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.715674 - 0.284326RealScores: 88.868399 - 68.074575

St Kilda 82 - 98 Geelong Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.341087 - 0.658913RealScores: 82.488535 - 97.664926

Sydney Sydney 104 - 80 Gold Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.743273 - 0.256727RealScores: 103.872361 - 80.096332

Western Bulldogs 91 - 76 Greater Western Sydney
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.662196 - 0.337804RealScores: 91.227205 - 75.739407

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	13 (12.87)	6	129.8
2	Sydney	13 (12.58)	6	123.8
3	Fremantle	12 (11.99)	7	121.9
4	Geelong	12 (12.08)	7	120.1
5	Brisbane Lions	11 (11.10)	8	111.8
6	Carlton	10 (10.24)	9	106.0
7	Collingwood	10 (10.23)	9	105.6
8	Western Bulldogs	10 (10.10)	9	104.3
9	Adelaide	10 (9.88)	9	102.8
10	Greater Western Sydney	10 (9.52)	9	100.2
11	Melbourne	9 (9.26)	10	98.7
12	Gold Coast	9 (9.18)	10	98.4
13	St Kilda	9 (9.13)	10	97.1
14	North Melbourne	8 (8.05)	11	90.1
15	Port Adelaide	8 (7.55)	11	86.1
16	West Coast	6 (6.31)	13	77.8
17	Richmond	6 (5.93)	13	74.9
18	Essendon	5 (4.98)	14	70.0

Round 21

Adelaide 102 - 62 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.863241 - 0.136759RealScores: 101.628521 - 61.619249

Collingwood 84 - 82 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.525398 - 0.474602RealScores: 83.602916 - 82.418766

Essendon 63 - 100 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.15 wins - 0.85 winsRealProbs: 0.154541 - 0.845459RealScores: 63.016530 - 100.195102

Geelong Geelong 111 - 66 Port Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.89 wins - 0.11 winsRealProbs: 0.893077 - 0.106923RealScores: 110.943427 - 65.772513

Gold Coast 78 - 85 Fremantle
Carrara (QLD)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.414453 - 0.585547RealScores: 77.674558 - 84.891366

Greater Western Sydney 96 - 80 North Melbourne
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.667524 - 0.332476RealScores: 96.119835 - 80.124089

Hawthorn 96 - 78 Sydney Sydney
York Park (TAS)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.679562 - 0.320438RealScores: 95.600543 - 78.442979

St Kilda 94 - 100 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.425408 - 0.574592RealScores: 93.558537 - 99.647805

West Coast 79 - 94 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.334591 - 0.665409RealScores: 78.652644 - 94.446312

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	14 (13.52)	6	129.4
2	Geelong	13 (12.93)	7	122.1
3	Sydney	13 (12.94)	7	121.4
4	Fremantle	13 (12.55)	7	121.2
5	Brisbane Lions	12 (11.65)	8	111.6
6	Western Bulldogs	11 (10.90)	9	106.5
7	Carlton	11 (10.74)	9	105.6
8	Collingwood	11 (10.73)	9	105.4
9	Adelaide	11 (10.70)	9	105.1
10	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.16)	10	101.1
11	Melbourne	10 (9.89)	10	99.7
12	Gold Coast	10 (9.63)	10	98.0
13	St Kilda	10 (9.59)	10	96.9
14	North Melbourne	8 (8.41)	12	89.7
15	Port Adelaide	8 (7.70)	12	84.5
16	West Coast	7 (6.67)	13	78.0
17	Richmond	6 (6.12)	14	74.2
18	Essendon	5 (5.18)	15	69.6

Round 22

Brisbane Lions 106 - 105 Geelong Geelong
Gabba (QLD)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.523622 - 0.476378RealScores: 105.729792 - 104.788162

Collingwood 92 - 77 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.658106 - 0.341894RealScores: 92.417592 - 77.458489

Fremantle 96 - 69 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.777332 - 0.222668RealScores: 96.411251 - 68.635095

Melbourne 83 - 87 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.444856 - 0.555144RealScores: 82.841386 - 86.884959

North Melbourne 86 - 88 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.461812 - 0.538188RealScores: 85.752420 - 88.115256

Port Adelaide 93 - 64 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.784296 - 0.215704RealScores: 93.035650 - 64.390699

Richmond 55 - 108 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.07 wins - 0.93 winsRealProbs: 0.070571 - 0.929429RealScores: 55.357996 - 107.592068

St Kilda 98 - 66 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.809873 - 0.190127RealScores: 97.892357 - 65.887258

Sydney Sydney 99 - 80 Carlton Carlton
S.C.G. (NSW)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.697630 - 0.302370RealScores: 98.720197 - 79.775330

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	14 (14.40)	7	131.7
2	Sydney	14 (13.60)	7	121.5
3	Fremantle	13 (13.28)	8	122.0
4	Geelong	13 (13.43)	8	120.7
5	Brisbane Lions	12 (12.15)	9	111.0
6	Western Bulldogs	11 (11.42)	10	106.4
7	Collingwood	11 (11.36)	10	106.1
8	Carlton	11 (11.08)	10	104.2
9	Adelaide	11 (11.07)	10	103.9
10	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.43)	11	99.5
11	Melbourne	10 (10.37)	11	99.5
12	St Kilda	10 (10.35)	11	98.8
13	Gold Coast	10 (10.13)	11	98.3
14	North Melbourne	9 (8.90)	12	90.1
15	Port Adelaide	8 (8.44)	13	86.6
16	West Coast	7 (6.91)	14	77.5
17	Richmond	6 (6.24)	15	72.9
18	Essendon	5 (5.45)	16	69.6

Round 23

Adelaide 79 - 83 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.437285 - 0.562715RealScores: 78.518833 - 83.247877

Carlton Carlton 93 - 66 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.769677 - 0.230323RealScores: 92.967516 - 66.125292

Collingwood 86 - 81 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.568578 - 0.431422RealScores: 86.122673 - 80.802123

Geelong Geelong 124 - 61 Essendon
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.98 wins - 0.02 winsRealProbs: 0.975962 - 0.024038RealScores: 124.026672 - 61.346709

Gold Coast 93 - 104 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.380466 - 0.619534RealScores: 93.499027 - 104.125203

Greater Western Sydney 85 - 102 Sydney Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.319940 - 0.680060RealScores: 84.792889 - 101.998966

North Melbourne 85 - 94 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.396019 - 0.603981RealScores: 85.144744 - 94.118749

West Coast 64 - 102 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.15 wins - 0.85 winsRealProbs: 0.147834 - 0.852166RealScores: 63.672972 - 101.898954

Western Bulldogs 98 - 61 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.842146 - 0.157854RealScores: 97.609774 - 60.939599

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	15 (15.21)	7	132.9
2	Geelong	14 (14.36)	8	123.4
3	Sydney	14 (14.24)	8	121.5
4	Fremantle	14 (13.81)	8	121.3
5	Brisbane Lions	13 (12.73)	9	111.0
6	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.21)	10	108.3
7	Collingwood	12 (11.89)	10	106.1
8	Carlton	12 (11.80)	10	105.6
9	Adelaide	12 (11.54)	10	103.5
10	Melbourne	11 (10.94)	11	99.9
11	Greater Western Sydney	11 (10.78)	11	98.7
12	St Kilda	11 (10.82)	11	98.6
13	Gold Coast	11 (10.55)	11	97.8
14	North Melbourne	9 (9.34)	13	90.1
15	Port Adelaide	9 (8.72)	13	85.8
16	West Coast	7 (7.11)	15	76.8
17	Richmond	6 (6.44)	16	72.5
18	Essendon	6 (5.52)	16	68.5

Round 24

Carlton Carlton 92 - 78 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.654260 - 0.345740RealScores: 91.920569 - 77.583080

Essendon 79 - 80 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.482377 - 0.517623RealScores: 79.583338 - 79.817336

Fremantle 91 - 81 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.612985 - 0.387015RealScores: 91.250749 - 81.406150

Geelong Geelong 107 - 76 Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.804523 - 0.195477RealScores: 107.299413 - 76.020280

Hawthorn 89 - 68 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.714766 - 0.285234RealScores: 88.966132 - 68.267150

Melbourne 99 - 105 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.419546 - 0.580454RealScores: 98.706661 - 105.161903

Port Adelaide 80 - 83 Gold Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.447827 - 0.552173RealScores: 79.822425 - 83.427768

Richmond 65 - 99 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.18 wins - 0.82 winsRealProbs: 0.177436 - 0.822564RealScores: 65.237987 - 99.017387

St Kilda 90 - 79 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.621852 - 0.378148RealScores: 90.263272 - 79.472471

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	16 (15.88)	7	132.8
2	Geelong	15 (15.11)	8	124.2
3	Sydney	15 (14.66)	8	120.0
4	Fremantle	14 (14.38)	9	120.8
5	Brisbane Lions	13 (13.27)	10	110.8
6	Collingwood	13 (12.66)	10	107.6
7	Western Bulldogs	13 (12.54)	10	106.7
8	Carlton	12 (12.41)	11	106.1
9	Adelaide	12 (11.79)	11	101.7
10	Melbourne	11 (11.40)	12	99.6
11	St Kilda	11 (11.40)	12	99.2
12	Gold Coast	11 (11.06)	12	98.1
13	Greater Western Sydney	11 (11.17)	12	98.0
14	North Melbourne	10 (9.75)	13	90.0
15	Port Adelaide	9 (9.20)	14	86.2
16	West Coast	8 (7.61)	15	77.6
17	Richmond	7 (6.67)	16	72.2
18	Essendon	6 (6.02)	17	69.6

WILDCARD FINALS

Western Bulldogs 88 - 82 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)

Carlton Carlton 90 - 76 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Hawthorn 87 - 67 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)

Geelong Geelong 100 - 95 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Brisbane Lions 104 - 88 Carlton Carlton
Gabba (QLD)

Collingwood 82 - 81 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Fremantle 102 - 84 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)

Sydney Sydney 101 - 81 Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)

FINALS: WEEK 4

Hawthorn 96 - 78 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Geelong Geelong 90 - 83 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)

2027 AFL GRAND FINAL

Geelong Geelong 82 - 92 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE7

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Hawthorn	59.3	65.2	62.2
2	Geelong	62.9	54.7	58.8
3	Sydney	62.5	54.4	58.5
4	Fremantle	54.8	61.0	57.9
5	Brisbane Lions	65.3	49.1	57.2
6	Western Bulldogs	52.7	56.9	54.8
7	Carlton	53.1	55.6	54.3
8	Collingwood	54.2	54.2	54.2
9	Gold Coast	53.4	52.8	53.1
10	Melbourne	54.8	51.0	52.9
11	Adelaide	52.5	52.6	52.6
12	Greater Western Sydney	53.6	51.5	52.5
13	St Kilda	51.6	53.4	52.5
14	North Melbourne	50.5	49.0	49.7
15	Port Adelaide	45.7	50.6	48.2
16	West Coast	43.3	46.2	44.8
17	Richmond	40.8	45.9	43.4
18	Essendon	41.2	44.1	42.6

Hawthorn def Sydney	6.6%
Sydney def Hawthorn	5.7%
Sydney def Geelong	4.9%
Sydney def Fremantle	4.8%
Geelong def Sydney	3.6%
Hawthorn def Geelong	3.2%
Hawthorn def Fremantle	3.2%
Fremantle def Sydney	2.9%
Sydney def Collingwood	2.5%
Geelong def Hawthorn	2.3%
Sydney def St Kilda	2.3%
Geelong def Fremantle	1.9%
Hawthorn def Collingwood	1.9%
Fremantle def Hawthorn	1.8%
Sydney def Western Bulldogs	1.8%
Sydney def Brisbane Lions	1.7%
Hawthorn def St Kilda	1.6%
Fremantle def Geelong	1.5%
Collingwood def Sydney	1.4%
Sydney def Carlton	1.4%