Squiggle 2020

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011
Squiggle v1	64.7%	68.6%	61.4%	69.1%	70.9%	72.0%	72.5%	77.8%	77.6%
Squiggle 2.0*	65.2%	68.1%	64.7%	74.9%	73.8%	72.0%	73.0%	73.4%	77.0%
Squiggle 4*	65.7%	72.5%	65.7%	73.4%	73.8%	73.4%	74.4%	73.9%	77.6%

* Squiggle 2.0 before 2018 and Squiggle4 before mid-2018 are "retro-dictions"—made after the result. They shows how well the model fits historical data, rather than how its predictions performed in real time.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

2020 ROUND 22 TIPS

Richmond 49 - 59 Geelong Geelong
Gabba (QLD)
HGA: Geelong +0.0 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.0 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE2020
Tips after Round 21: 116

History...

In 2020, algorithm SQUIGGLE2020 correctly tipped 116 games at an accuracy of 71.60%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1

St Kilda (111) defeated Hawthorn (90) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 21)
Western Bulldogs (101) defeated North Melbourne (57) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 44)
Melbourne (103) defeated Adelaide (70) at Casey Fields (VIC) [Melbourne by 33)
Gold Coast (122) defeated Geelong (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 68)
Brisbane Lions (77) lost to Port Adelaide (98) at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 21)
West Coast (87) lost to Essendon (95) at Mineral Resources Park (WA) [Essendon by 8)
Greater Western Sydney (121) defeated Sydney (27) at Blacktown (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 94)
Fremantle (90) defeated Carlton (43) at David Grays Arena (WA) [Fremantle by 47)
Richmond (44) lost to Collingwood (84) at Norm Minns Oval (VIC) [Collingwood by 40)

Round 0.2

Adelaide (64) lost to Gold Coast (71) at Flinders University Stadium (SA) [Gold Coast by 7)
Hawthorn (49) lost to Melbourne (81) at York Park (TAS) [Melbourne by 32)
Port Adelaide (95) defeated Western Bulldogs (85) at Bennett Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 10)
West Coast (54) lost to Fremantle (55) at Arena Joondalup (WA) [Fremantle by 1)
Greater Western Sydney (109) defeated Richmond (95) at Robertson Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 14)
Collingwood (57) lost to St Kilda (68) at Morwell Recreation Reserve (VIC) [St Kilda by 11)
Carlton (66) lost to Brisbane Lions (111) at Princes Park (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 45)
North Melbourne (90) defeated Sydney (79) at Kingston Twin Ovals (TAS) [North Melbourne by 11)
Geelong (61) lost to Essendon (65) at Central Reserve (VIC) [Essendon by 4)

Round 1

Adelaide (71) lost to Sydney (74) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Sydney by 3) Sydney by 5
Essendon (63) defeated Fremantle (57) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 6) Fremantle by 0
Gold Coast (29) lost to Port Adelaide (76) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 47) Port Adelaide by 11
Greater Western Sydney (105) defeated Geelong (73) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 1
Hawthorn (90) defeated Brisbane Lions (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 28) Hawthorn by 6
North Melbourne (56) defeated St Kilda (54) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 2) St Kilda by 0
Richmond (105) defeated Carlton (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 24) Richmond by 13
West Coast (78) defeated Melbourne (51) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 27) West Coast by 8
Western Bulldogs (34) lost to Collingwood (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 52) Western Bulldogs by 1

Round 2

Brisbane Lions (81) defeated Fremantle (69) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 12) Brisbane Lions by 3
Carlton (53) lost to Melbourne (54) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 1) Carlton by 0
Collingwood (36) drew with Richmond (36) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Collingwood by 3
Geelong (108) defeated Hawthorn (47) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 61) Geelong by 8
Gold Coast (90) defeated West Coast (46) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 44) West Coast by 22
Greater Western Sydney (60) lost to North Melbourne (80) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [North Melbourne by 20) Greater Western Sydney by 18
Port Adelaide (110) defeated Adelaide (35) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 75) Port Adelaide by 30
St Kilda (88) defeated Western Bulldogs (49) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 39) St Kilda by 0
Sydney (73) lost to Essendon (79) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Essendon by 6) Sydney by 0

Round 3

Brisbane Lions (74) defeated West Coast (44) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 30) Brisbane Lions by 9
Collingwood (81) defeated St Kilda (37) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 44) Collingwood by 16
Fremantle (41) lost to Port Adelaide (70) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 29) Port Adelaide by 21
Geelong (77) lost to Carlton (79) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Carlton by 2) Geelong by 20
Gold Coast (82) defeated Adelaide (29) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 53) Gold Coast by 7
North Melbourne (60) lost to Sydney (71) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 11) North Melbourne by 10
Richmond (39) lost to Hawthorn (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 32) Richmond by 11
Western Bulldogs (57) defeated Greater Western Sydney (33) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 24) Greater Western Sydney by 0

Round 4

Brisbane Lions (83) defeated Adelaide (46) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 37) Brisbane Lions by 48
Essendon (51) lost to Carlton (52) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 1) Carlton by 6
Gold Coast (64) defeated Fremantle (51) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 13) Fremantle by 0
Greater Western Sydney (66) defeated Collingwood (64) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 2) Collingwood by 12
Hawthorn (58) defeated North Melbourne (54) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 4) Hawthorn by 7
Melbourne (44) lost to Geelong (47) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 3) Geelong by 19
Port Adelaide (89) defeated West Coast (41) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 48) Port Adelaide by 25
St Kilda (93) defeated Richmond (67) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 26) Richmond by 17
Sydney (39) lost to Western Bulldogs (67) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 28) Sydney by 0

Round 5

Adelaide (34) lost to Fremantle (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Fremantle by 20) Fremantle by 11
Brisbane Lions (85) defeated Port Adelaide (48) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 37) Port Adelaide by 14
Carlton (55) lost to St Kilda (73) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 18) St Kilda by 0
Collingwood (48) lost to Essendon (63) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 15) Collingwood by 33
Geelong (89) defeated Gold Coast (52) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 37) Geelong by 22
Greater Western Sydney (83) defeated Hawthorn (49) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 34) Greater Western Sydney by 0
Melbourne (52) lost to Richmond (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 10
West Coast (77) defeated Sydney (43) at Carrara (QLD) [West Coast by 34) West Coast by 0
Western Bulldogs (87) defeated North Melbourne (38) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 49) Western Bulldogs by 0

Round 6

Carlton (103) defeated Western Bulldogs (51) at Carrara (QLD) [Carlton by 52) Western Bulldogs by 3
Collingwood (59) defeated Hawthorn (27) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Collingwood by 32) Collingwood by 10
Essendon (67) defeated North Melbourne (53) at Carrara (QLD) [Essendon by 14) Essendon by 11
Fremantle (79) defeated St Kilda (73) at Carrara (QLD) [Fremantle by 6) St Kilda by 8
Geelong (73) defeated Brisbane Lions (46) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Geelong by 27) Brisbane Lions by 3
Melbourne (80) defeated Gold Coast (63) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Melbourne by 17) Melbourne by 3
Port Adelaide (63) defeated Greater Western Sydney (46) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 17) Port Adelaide by 9
Richmond (34) defeated Sydney (26) at Gabba (QLD) [Richmond by 8) Richmond by 18
West Coast (67) defeated Adelaide (34) at Gabba (QLD) [West Coast by 33) West Coast by 19

Round 7

Adelaide (55) lost to St Kilda (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 23) St Kilda by 26
Carlton (61) lost to Port Adelaide (64) at Gabba (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 3) Port Adelaide by 11
Essendon (51) lost to Western Bulldogs (93) at Carrara (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 42) Western Bulldogs by 6
Fremantle (32) lost to West Coast (62) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 30) West Coast by 4
Geelong (35) lost to Collingwood (57) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Collingwood by 22) Collingwood by 7
Greater Western Sydney (68) lost to Brisbane Lions (88) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 20) Brisbane Lions by 0
Hawthorn (48) lost to Melbourne (91) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Melbourne by 43) Hawthorn by 7
Richmond (77) defeated North Melbourne (23) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 54) Richmond by 15
Sydney (60) lost to Gold Coast (92) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Gold Coast by 32) Sydney by 2

Round 8

Adelaide (59) lost to Essendon (62) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 3) Essendon by 16
Fremantle (16) lost to Geelong (48) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Geelong by 32) Geelong by 4
Gold Coast (46) lost to Western Bulldogs (51) at Carrara (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 5) Western Bulldogs by 4
Greater Western Sydney (62) defeated Richmond (50) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 12) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Melbourne (49) lost to Brisbane Lions (53) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 4) Brisbane Lions by 13
North Melbourne (57) lost to Carlton (64) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 7) Carlton by 13
Port Adelaide (44) lost to St Kilda (73) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 29) Port Adelaide by 20
Sydney (60) defeated Hawthorn (53) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 7) Hawthorn by 5
West Coast (111) defeated Collingwood (45) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 66) Collingwood by 3

Round 9

Carlton (58) lost to Hawthorn (89) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Hawthorn by 31) Carlton by 1
Essendon (28) lost to Brisbane Lions (91) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 63) Brisbane Lions by 24
Fremantle (61) defeated Collingwood (49) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 12) Collingwood by 21
Gold Coast (35) lost to Greater Western Sydney (61) at Carrara (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 26) Greater Western Sydney by 9
Melbourne (32) lost to Port Adelaide (83) at Gabba (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 51) Port Adelaide by 15
North Melbourne (119) defeated Adelaide (50) at Carrara (QLD) [North Melbourne by 69) North Melbourne by 13
St Kilda (101) defeated Sydney (48) at Gabba (QLD) [St Kilda by 53) St Kilda by 20
West Coast (73) defeated Geelong (64) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 9) Geelong by 7
Western Bulldogs (49) lost to Richmond (90) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 41) Western Bulldogs by 0

Round 10

Adelaide (37) lost to Melbourne (88) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 51) Melbourne by 18
Collingwood (50) defeated Sydney (41) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 9) Collingwood by 35
Essendon (55) lost to Greater Western Sydney (59) at Carrara (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 4) Greater Western Sydney by 6
Geelong (90) defeated North Melbourne (57) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 33) Geelong by 26
Gold Coast (74) lost to St Kilda (78) at Carrara (QLD) [St Kilda by 4) St Kilda by 11
Port Adelaide (55) defeated Western Bulldogs (42) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 13) Port Adelaide by 22
Richmond (82) defeated Brisbane Lions (41) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 41) Richmond by 4

Round 11

Adelaide (38) lost to Collingwood (62) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 24) Collingwood by 30
Brisbane Lions (96) defeated Western Bulldogs (72) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 24) Brisbane Lions by 17
Fremantle (48) defeated Hawthorn (32) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 16) Fremantle by 0
Gold Coast (73) drew with Essendon (73) at Carrara (QLD) [DRAW by 0) Gold Coast by 1
Melbourne (92) defeated North Melbourne (35) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 57) Melbourne by 2
Port Adelaide (93) defeated Richmond (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 21) Port Adelaide by 5
St Kilda (34) lost to Geelong (93) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 59) Geelong by 25
West Coast (72) defeated Carlton (50) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 22) West Coast by 18

Round 12

Fremantle (36) lost to Carlton (40) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Carlton by 4) Carlton by 2
Geelong (91) defeated Port Adelaide (31) at Carrara (QLD) [Geelong by 60) Port Adelaide by 0
Melbourne (100) defeated Collingwood (44) at Gabba (QLD) [Melbourne by 56) Collingwood by 7
North Melbourne (52) lost to Brisbane Lions (53) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 1) Brisbane Lions by 41
Richmond (53) defeated Gold Coast (32) at Gabba (QLD) [Richmond by 21) Richmond by 22
St Kilda (68) defeated Essendon (33) at Gabba (QLD) [St Kilda by 35) St Kilda by 25
Sydney (66) defeated Greater Western Sydney (25) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 41) Greater Western Sydney by 22
West Coast (81) defeated Hawthorn (49) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 32) West Coast by 17
Western Bulldogs (111) defeated Adelaide (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 57) Western Bulldogs by 23

Round 13

Adelaide (37) lost to Geelong (65) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 28) Geelong by 50
Brisbane Lions (50) defeated St Kilda (48) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 2) Brisbane Lions by 10
Collingwood (65) defeated North Melbourne (35) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 30) Collingwood by 18
Essendon (61) lost to Richmond (73) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Richmond by 12) Richmond by 22
Fremantle (50) defeated Sydney (19) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 31) Fremantle by 6
Gold Coast (27) lost to Carlton (60) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Carlton by 33) Carlton by 13
Port Adelaide (68) defeated Hawthorn (58) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 10) Port Adelaide by 34
West Coast (61) defeated Greater Western Sydney (49) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 12) West Coast by 14
Western Bulldogs (80) defeated Melbourne (52) at Carrara (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 28) Western Bulldogs by 1

Round 14

Carlton (48) lost to Collingwood (72) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 24) Collingwood by 2
Fremantle (53) lost to Greater Western Sydney (91) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Greater Western Sydney by 38) Greater Western Sydney by 2
Gold Coast (91) defeated North Melbourne (28) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 63) Gold Coast by 6
Hawthorn (71) lost to Essendon (87) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 16) Hawthorn by 10
Melbourne (52) defeated St Kilda (49) at Traeger Park (NT) [Melbourne by 3) Melbourne by 4
Port Adelaide (73) defeated Sydney (47) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 26) Port Adelaide by 34
Richmond (88) defeated West Coast (61) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 11
Western Bulldogs (61) lost to Geelong (72) at Carrara (QLD) [Geelong by 11) Geelong by 21

Round 15

Brisbane Lions (42) defeated Collingwood (34) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 8) Brisbane Lions by 3
Greater Western Sydney (48) defeated Carlton (39) at Carrara (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 9) Carlton by 6
Hawthorn (48) lost to Adelaide (83) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 35) Hawthorn by 17
Richmond (56) defeated Fremantle (29) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 24
Sydney (67) defeated Melbourne (46) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Sydney by 21) Melbourne by 22
West Coast (60) defeated Essendon (45) at Gabba (QLD) [West Coast by 15) West Coast by 19

Round 16

Adelaide (59) defeated Greater Western Sydney (47) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 12) Greater Western Sydney by 18
Brisbane Lions (88) defeated Gold Coast (43) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 45) Brisbane Lions by 15
Carlton (57) defeated Sydney (52) at Carrara (QLD) [Carlton by 5) Carlton by 13
Geelong (108) defeated Essendon (42) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 66) Geelong by 29
Melbourne (33) lost to Fremantle (47) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Fremantle by 14) Melbourne by 9
North Melbourne (42) lost to Port Adelaide (78) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 36) Port Adelaide by 29
St Kilda (80) defeated Hawthorn (66) at Carrara (QLD) [St Kilda by 14) St Kilda by 17
Western Bulldogs (49) defeated West Coast (47) at Carrara (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 2) Western Bulldogs by 5

Round 17

Carlton (56) lost to Adelaide (72) at Carrara (QLD) [Adelaide by 16) Carlton by 34
Collingwood (68) defeated Gold Coast (46) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 22) Collingwood by 13
Geelong (31) lost to Richmond (57) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 26) Geelong by 5
Greater Western Sydney (74) lost to Melbourne (79) at Gabba (QLD) [Melbourne by 5) Greater Western Sydney by 5
Hawthorn (40) lost to Western Bulldogs (76) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Western Bulldogs by 36) Western Bulldogs by 11
North Melbourne (35) lost to Fremantle (99) at Carrara (QLD) [Fremantle by 64) Fremantle by 6
Port Adelaide (79) defeated Essendon (29) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 50) Port Adelaide by 36
St Kilda (50) lost to West Coast (65) at Gabba (QLD) [West Coast by 15) St Kilda by 9
Sydney (41) lost to Brisbane Lions (73) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 32) Brisbane Lions by 29

Round 18

Adelaide (33) lost to Richmond (77) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Richmond by 44) Richmond by 28
Brisbane Lions (78) defeated Carlton (61) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 17) Brisbane Lions by 21
Collingwood (45) lost to Port Adelaide (61) at Gabba (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 16) Port Adelaide by 1
Essendon (49) lost to Melbourne (68) at Carrara (QLD) [Melbourne by 19) Melbourne by 12
Fremantle (44) lost to Western Bulldogs (74) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 30) Western Bulldogs by 19
Hawthorn (108) defeated Gold Coast (57) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Hawthorn by 51) Hawthorn by 2
North Melbourne (34) lost to West Coast (49) at Carrara (QLD) [West Coast by 15) West Coast by 30
St Kilda (82) defeated Greater Western Sydney (30) at Gabba (QLD) [St Kilda by 52) St Kilda by 6
Sydney (63) lost to Geelong (69) at Carrara (QLD) [Geelong by 6) Geelong by 32

Qualifying Final

Brisbane Lions (69) defeated Richmond (54) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 15) Brisbane Lions by 1
Port Adelaide (58) defeated Geelong (42) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 16) Port Adelaide by 8
St Kilda (67) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at Gabba (QLD) [St Kilda by 3) Western Bulldogs by 3
West Coast (75) lost to Collingwood (76) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Collingwood by 1) West Coast by 14

Qualifying Final

Geelong (100) defeated Collingwood (32) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 68) Geelong by 7
Richmond (80) defeated St Kilda (49) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 31) Richmond by 19

Qualifying Final

Brisbane Lions (42) lost to Geelong (82) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 40) Geelong by 9
Port Adelaide (40) lost to Richmond (46) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Richmond by 6) Port Adelaide by 5

Grand Final

Richmond (81) defeated Geelong (50) at Gabba (QLD) [Richmond by 31) Geelong by 12

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Richmond	63.7	76.9	70.3
2	Geelong	63.3	75.6	69.5
3	Port Adelaide	54.1	69.6	61.9
4	Brisbane Lions	59.2	63.2	61.2
5	Western Bulldogs	57.0	62.0	59.5
6	Collingwood	47.3	69.4	58.4
7	St Kilda	56.1	59.9	58.0
8	West Coast	53.4	60.5	56.9
9	Melbourne	51.1	60.4	55.7
10	Carlton	50.7	60.4	55.5
11	Greater Western Sydney	51.4	57.5	54.4
12	Fremantle	41.2	63.7	52.5
13	Gold Coast	47.3	56.4	51.9
14	Sydney	45.8	57.7	51.8
15	Hawthorn	49.3	53.7	51.5
16	Essendon	46.8	52.5	49.7
17	Adelaide	44.1	51.7	47.9
18	North Melbourne	42.4	49.9	46.1

		Flagpole Height
1	Geelong	70.9
2	Richmond	68.6
3	Port Adelaide	61.9
4	Brisbane Lions	61.2
5	Western Bulldogs	59.5
6	Collingwood	58.4
7	St Kilda	58.0
8	West Coast	56.9
9	Melbourne	0.0
10	Carlton	0.0
11	Greater Western Sydney	0.0
12	Fremantle	0.0
13	Gold Coast	0.0
14	Sydney	0.0
15	Hawthorn	0.0
16	Essendon	0.0
17	Adelaide	0.0
18	North Melbourne	0.0