Squiggle 2020

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011
Squiggle v1	64.7%	68.6%	61.4%	69.1%	70.9%	72.0%	72.5%	77.8%	77.6%
Squiggle 2.0*	65.2%	68.1%	64.7%	74.9%	73.8%	72.0%	73.0%	73.4%	77.0%
Squiggle 4*	65.7%	72.5%	65.7%	73.4%	73.8%	73.4%	74.4%	73.9%	77.6%

* Squiggle 2.0 before 2018 and Squiggle4 before mid-2018 are "retro-dictions"—made after the result. They shows how well the model fits historical data, rather than how its predictions performed in real time.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Tue May 26 11:04:36 2020 (R1)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2020 ROUND 2 TIPS

Brisbane Lions 72 - 57 Fremantle
Gabba (QLD)
HGA: +8.7 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.0 pts

Carlton Carlton 67 - 64 Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)
HGA: Carlton +0.2 pts
Ins/Outs: Carlton +0.0 pts

Collingwood 59 - 53 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +0.0 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.0 pts

Geelong Geelong 64 - 54 Hawthorn
Kardinia Park (Gee)
HGA: Geelong +7.2 pts
Ins/Outs: Geelong +0.0 pts

Gold Coast 50 - 75 West Coast
Carrara (QLD)
HGA: +8.3 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.0 pts

Greater Western Sydney 74 - 52 North Melbourne
Sydney Showground (NSW)
HGA: +9.0 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.0 pts

Port Adelaide 78 - 45 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA: +0.2 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.0 pts

St Kilda 63 - 62 Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium (VIC)
HGA: +0.2 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.0 pts

Sydney Sydney 65 - 58 Essendon
S.C.G. (NSW)
HGA: Sydney +7.6 pts
Ins/Outs: Sydney +0.0 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE2020
Tips after Round 1: 7

History...

In 2020, algorithm SQUIGGLE2020 correctly tipped 7 games at an accuracy of 77.78%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1

St Kilda (111) defeated Hawthorn (90) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 21)
Western Bulldogs (101) defeated North Melbourne (57) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 44)
Melbourne (103) defeated Adelaide (70) at Casey Fields (VIC) [Melbourne by 33)
Gold Coast (122) defeated Geelong (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 68)
Brisbane Lions (77) lost to Port Adelaide (98) at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 21)
West Coast (87) lost to Essendon (95) at Mineral Resources Park (WA) [Essendon by 8)
Greater Western Sydney (121) defeated Sydney (27) at Blacktown (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 94)
Fremantle (90) defeated Carlton (43) at David Grays Arena (WA) [Fremantle by 47)
Richmond (44) lost to Collingwood (84) at Norm Minns Oval (VIC) [Collingwood by 40)

Round 0.2

Adelaide (64) lost to Gold Coast (71) at Flinders University Stadium (SA) [Gold Coast by 7)
Hawthorn (49) lost to Melbourne (81) at York Park (TAS) [Melbourne by 32)
Port Adelaide (95) defeated Western Bulldogs (85) at Bennett Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 10)
West Coast (54) lost to Fremantle (55) at Arena Joondalup (WA) [Fremantle by 1)
Greater Western Sydney (109) defeated Richmond (95) at Robertson Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 14)
Collingwood (57) lost to St Kilda (68) at Morwell Recreation Reserve (VIC) [St Kilda by 11)
Carlton (66) lost to Brisbane Lions (111) at Princes Park (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 45)
North Melbourne (90) defeated Sydney (79) at Kingston Twin Ovals (TAS) [North Melbourne by 11)
Geelong (61) lost to Essendon (65) at Central Reserve (VIC) [Essendon by 4)

Round 1

Adelaide (71) lost to Sydney (74) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Sydney by 3) Sydney by 4
Essendon (63) defeated Fremantle (57) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Essendon by 6) Essendon by 0
Gold Coast (29) lost to Port Adelaide (76) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 47) Port Adelaide by 7
Greater Western Sydney (105) defeated Geelong (73) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 4
Hawthorn (90) defeated Brisbane Lions (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 28) Hawthorn by 9
North Melbourne (56) defeated St Kilda (54) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [North Melbourne by 2) St Kilda by 0
Richmond (105) defeated Carlton (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 24) Richmond by 13
West Coast (78) defeated Melbourne (51) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 27) West Coast by 11
Western Bulldogs (34) lost to Collingwood (86) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Collingwood by 52) Western Bulldogs by 0

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 99

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		Wins	%
1	Collingwood	12.4	146.4%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
2	Richmond	11.5	127.3%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
3	Port Adelaide	11.3	130.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
4	Greater Western Sydney	11.0	122.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
5	Geelong	9.8	115.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
6	Hawthorn	9.7	110.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
7	Brisbane Lions	9.2	109.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
8	West Coast	8.8	102.4%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
9	North Melbourne	8.3	95.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
10	Carlton	7.8	98.0%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
11	Western Bulldogs	7.7	94.3%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12	St Kilda	7.5	97.5%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
13	Essendon	7.7	91.3%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
14	Fremantle	7.3	94.8%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
15	Sydney	7.2	86.9%	3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
16	Melbourne	6.9	90.5%	3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
17	Adelaide	5.2	79.7%	6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
18	Gold Coast	3.6	64.1%	11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 2

Brisbane Lions 72 - 57 Fremantle
Gabba (QLD)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.607853 - 0.392147RealScores: 72.075965 - 57.177528

Carlton Carlton 67 - 64 Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 66.975758 - 64.443195

Collingwood 59 - 53 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.532713 - 0.467287RealScores: 58.924069 - 52.742965

Geelong Geelong 64 - 54 Hawthorn
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.566414 - 0.433586RealScores: 63.509373 - 53.522819

Gold Coast 50 - 75 West Coast
Carrara (QLD)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.317983 - 0.682017RealScores: 50.228888 - 74.710113

Greater Western Sydney 74 - 52 North Melbourne
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.663044 - 0.336956RealScores: 73.878429 - 51.960464

Port Adelaide 78 - 45 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.742200 - 0.257800RealScores: 78.251008 - 44.991716

St Kilda 63 - 62 Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 62.804330 - 62.335726

Sydney Sydney 65 - 58 Essendon
S.C.G. (NSW)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.532877 - 0.467123RealScores: 64.676978 - 58.477776

		W	L	%
1	Port Adelaide	2 (1.74)	0	208.5
2	Collingwood	2 (1.53)	0	167.1
3	West Coast	2 (1.68)	0	150.9
4	Greater Western Sydney	2 (1.66)	0	143.1
5	Sydney	2 (1.53)	0	107.1
6	Hawthorn	1 (1.43)	1	114.4
7	Richmond	1 (1.47)	1	112.7
8	Essendon	1 (1.47)	1	99.8
9	St Kilda	1 (0.50)	1	98.7
10	Brisbane Lions	1 (0.61)	1	91.1
11	Carlton	1 (0.50)	1	87.3
12	Geelong	1 (0.57)	1	86.1
13	North Melbourne	1 (1.34)	1	84.4
14	Fremantle	0 (0.39)	2	84.5
15	Melbourne	0 (0.50)	2	79.6
16	Adelaide	0 (0.26)	2	76.2
17	Western Bulldogs	0 (0.50)	2	64.7
18	Gold Coast	0 (0.32)	2	52.6

Round 3

Brisbane Lions 73 - 65 West Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.560956 - 0.439044RealScores: 73.254663 - 64.683391

Collingwood 66 - 43 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.674675 - 0.325325RealScores: 65.820536 - 43.476896

Essendon 60 - 62 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.494869 - 0.505131RealScores: 59.768814 - 62.287731

Fremantle 47 - 66 Port Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.352470 - 0.647530RealScores: 47.032150 - 65.876027

Geelong Geelong 77 - 58 Carlton Carlton
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.648749 - 0.351251RealScores: 76.659549 - 57.661723

Gold Coast 57 - 64 Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.461964 - 0.538036RealScores: 57.476344 - 63.515623

North Melbourne 66 - 56 Sydney Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.579485 - 0.420515RealScores: 66.298788 - 55.628111

Richmond 66 - 55 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.582253 - 0.417747RealScores: 66.286300 - 55.297770

Western Bulldogs 61 - 67 Greater Western Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.463782 - 0.536218RealScores: 61.274525 - 67.115825

		W	L	%
1	Port Adelaide	2 (2.39)	1	181.9
2	Collingwood	2 (2.21)	1	161.8
3	Greater Western Sydney	2 (2.20)	1	132.1
4	West Coast	2 (2.12)	1	124.6
5	Richmond	2 (2.05)	1	114.8
6	Hawthorn	2 (1.85)	1	103.7
7	Sydney	2 (1.95)	1	99.2
8	Essendon	2 (1.96)	1	98.5
9	North Melbourne	2 (1.92)	1	95.0
10	Geelong	1 (1.22)	2	98.6
11	Brisbane Lions	1 (1.17)	2	97.9
12	St Kilda	1 (0.83)	2	87.0
13	Melbourne	1 (1.01)	2	86.8
14	Adelaide	1 (0.80)	2	85.6
15	Carlton	1 (0.85)	2	83.6
16	Fremantle	1 (0.74)	2	80.2
17	Western Bulldogs	1 (0.96)	2	73.0
18	Gold Coast	1 (0.78)	2	63.8

Round 4

Brisbane Lions 84 - 55 Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.732855 - 0.267145RealScores: 84.403306 - 54.876718

Essendon 65 - 69 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.470192 - 0.529808RealScores: 64.746017 - 69.430026

Gold Coast 49 - 67 Fremantle
Carrara (QLD)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.353844 - 0.646156RealScores: 48.854475 - 66.849268

Greater Western Sydney 53 - 57 Collingwood
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.481781 - 0.518219RealScores: 53.423298 - 56.881780

Hawthorn 62 - 54 North Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.563573 - 0.436427RealScores: 62.338773 - 53.990916

Melbourne 55 - 67 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.402148 - 0.597852RealScores: 55.128748 - 67.352291

Port Adelaide 67 - 53 West Coast
Carrara (QLD)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.619362 - 0.380638RealScores: 67.307626 - 52.562373

St Kilda 56 - 73 Richmond
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.356066 - 0.643934RealScores: 55.682150 - 73.402541

Sydney Sydney 63 - 62 Western Bulldogs
S.C.G. (NSW)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 62.507699 - 62.124162

		W	L	%
1	Port Adelaide	3 (3.01)	1	165.6
2	Collingwood	3 (2.73)	1	145.7
3	Greater Western Sydney	3 (2.68)	1	123.2
4	Richmond	3 (2.69)	1	118.5
5	West Coast	3 (2.50)	1	111.6
6	Brisbane Lions	2 (1.90)	2	109.4
7	Hawthorn	2 (2.41)	2	106.3
8	Geelong	2 (1.81)	2	103.4
9	Sydney	2 (2.45)	2	99.6
10	Essendon	2 (2.43)	2	97.1
11	North Melbourne	2 (2.35)	2	92.8
12	Fremantle	1 (1.39)	3	91.3
13	Carlton	1 (1.38)	3	88.5
14	Melbourne	1 (1.41)	3	85.6
15	St Kilda	1 (1.18)	3	83.9
16	Adelaide	1 (1.06)	3	79.7
17	Western Bulldogs	1 (1.46)	3	78.9
18	Gold Coast	1 (1.13)	3	66.0

Round 5

Adelaide 54 - 67 Fremantle
Carrara (QLD)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.389617 - 0.610383RealScores: 54.182959 - 67.439608

Brisbane Lions 60 - 68 Port Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.440691 - 0.559309RealScores: 60.032443 - 67.549966

Carlton Carlton 66 - 68 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.492844 - 0.507156RealScores: 65.703666 - 67.706524

Collingwood 69 - 42 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.724449 - 0.275551RealScores: 69.443267 - 41.745421

Geelong Geelong 86 - 38 Gold Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.85 wins - 0.15 winsRealProbs: 0.846675 - 0.153325RealScores: 85.716197 - 38.324567

Greater Western Sydney 66 - 54 Hawthorn
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.598159 - 0.401841RealScores: 65.587710 - 53.738547

Sydney Sydney 63 - 58 Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.536273 - 0.463727RealScores: 62.884459 - 57.842168

West Coast 59 - 73 Richmond
Carrara (QLD)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.386160 - 0.613840RealScores: 59.155159 - 72.814083

Western Bulldogs 63 - 61 North Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.508887 - 0.491113RealScores: 63.296122 - 61.115251

		W	L	%
1	Port Adelaide	4 (3.57)	1	152.0
2	Collingwood	3 (3.45)	2	149.6
3	Greater Western Sydney	3 (3.28)	2	123.0
4	Richmond	3 (3.31)	2	119.4
5	Geelong	3 (2.66)	2	118.3
6	West Coast	3 (2.89)	2	104.6
7	Sydney	3 (2.99)	2	101.3
8	Hawthorn	3 (2.82)	2	101.1
9	North Melbourne	3 (2.84)	2	93.6
10	Essendon	3 (2.71)	2	89.1
11	Brisbane Lions	2 (2.34)	3	105.2
12	Fremantle	2 (2.00)	3	97.2
13	Carlton	2 (1.87)	3	90.0
14	St Kilda	2 (1.69)	3	87.8
15	Melbourne	2 (1.87)	3	86.8
16	Western Bulldogs	2 (1.97)	3	83.4
17	Adelaide	1 (1.45)	4	79.8
18	Gold Coast	1 (1.29)	4	61.0

Round 99

Adelaide 61 - 76 Carlton Carlton
Wellington (NZ)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.357520 - 0.642480RealScores: 60.997449 - 76.202558

Adelaide 40 - 75 Collingwood
Wellington (NZ)0.21 wins - 0.79 winsRealProbs: 0.206628 - 0.793372RealScores: 40.178121 - 75.251242

Adelaide 59 - 68 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.418869 - 0.581131RealScores: 59.326013 - 67.674795

Adelaide 52 - 77 Geelong Geelong
Wellington (NZ)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.280924 - 0.719076RealScores: 52.187102 - 76.821345

Adelaide 53 - 79 Greater Western Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.272957 - 0.727043RealScores: 53.029762 - 78.713363

Adelaide 51 - 70 Hawthorn
Wellington (NZ)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.324924 - 0.675076RealScores: 51.133646 - 70.217177

Adelaide 58 - 66 Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.422288 - 0.577712RealScores: 58.328269 - 66.309926

Adelaide 52 - 83 Richmond
Wellington (NZ)0.24 wins - 0.76 winsRealProbs: 0.235833 - 0.764167RealScores: 52.306253 - 83.088316

Adelaide 58 - 69 St Kilda
Wellington (NZ)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.387689 - 0.612311RealScores: 57.646400 - 69.413333

Adelaide 59 - 70 Western Bulldogs
Wellington (NZ)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.397413 - 0.602587RealScores: 59.122974 - 69.809835

Brisbane Lions 76 - 70 Carlton Carlton
Wellington (NZ)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.562302 - 0.437698RealScores: 76.069118 - 69.724165

Brisbane Lions 50 - 69 Collingwood
Wellington (NZ)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.326406 - 0.673594RealScores: 49.927612 - 68.830785

Brisbane Lions 74 - 62 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.613713 - 0.386287RealScores: 73.825269 - 61.901595

Brisbane Lions 65 - 70 Geelong Geelong
Wellington (NZ)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.446755 - 0.553245RealScores: 64.811714 - 70.207853

Brisbane Lions 86 - 48 Gold Coast
Wellington (NZ)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.811998 - 0.188002RealScores: 85.587504 - 47.623122

Brisbane Lions 66 - 72 Greater Western Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.445627 - 0.554373RealScores: 66.091128 - 71.604886

Brisbane Lions 72 - 61 Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.611912 - 0.388088RealScores: 72.273682 - 60.551392

Brisbane Lions 72 - 62 North Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.599328 - 0.400672RealScores: 72.109449 - 61.781616

Brisbane Lions 65 - 76 Richmond
Wellington (NZ)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.398635 - 0.601365RealScores: 64.958486 - 75.510619

Brisbane Lions 72 - 63 St Kilda
Wellington (NZ)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.582938 - 0.417062RealScores: 71.568775 - 63.025372

Brisbane Lions 77 - 58 Sydney Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.672381 - 0.327619RealScores: 76.553008 - 57.797138

Brisbane Lions 74 - 63 Western Bulldogs
Wellington (NZ)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.601636 - 0.398364RealScores: 73.641853 - 63.059918

Carlton Carlton 47 - 72 Collingwood
Wellington (NZ)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.282898 - 0.717102RealScores: 47.193537 - 71.570091

Carlton Carlton 65 - 63 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.518917 - 0.481083RealScores: 64.937309 - 63.054103

Carlton Carlton 81 - 50 Gold Coast
Wellington (NZ)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.764294 - 0.235706RealScores: 80.666379 - 49.866169

Carlton Carlton 62 - 75 Greater Western Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.380582 - 0.619418RealScores: 62.237639 - 74.802351

Carlton Carlton 60 - 66 Hawthorn
Wellington (NZ)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.439081 - 0.560919RealScores: 60.238658 - 66.438061

Carlton Carlton 55 - 72 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.342928 - 0.657072RealScores: 55.213815 - 72.132756

Carlton Carlton 69 - 67 Western Bulldogs
Wellington (NZ)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.516938 - 0.483062RealScores: 68.573450 - 66.888950

Collingwood 64 - 41 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.705499 - 0.294501RealScores: 64.089971 - 41.211084

Collingwood 67 - 42 Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.724482 - 0.275518RealScores: 66.926271 - 41.581633

Collingwood 54 - 47 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.564048 - 0.435952RealScores: 53.859842 - 47.330929

Essendon 55 - 73 Greater Western Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.329508 - 0.670492RealScores: 54.656354 - 73.183332

Essendon 48 - 71 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.291369 - 0.708631RealScores: 47.888098 - 71.168462

Fremantle 59 - 58 Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.514414 - 0.485586RealScores: 58.968294 - 57.536614

Geelong Geelong 47 - 61 Collingwood
Wellington (NZ)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.364108 - 0.635892RealScores: 46.934148 - 61.376657

Geelong Geelong 71 - 55 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.648460 - 0.351540RealScores: 70.584147 - 54.680958

Geelong Geelong 66 - 53 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.615648 - 0.384352RealScores: 65.613632 - 53.473078

Geelong Geelong 55 - 62 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.431092 - 0.568908RealScores: 54.772422 - 61.815445

Geelong Geelong 69 - 57 Western Bulldogs
Wellington (NZ)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.615733 - 0.384267RealScores: 69.004307 - 56.854172

Gold Coast 32 - 81 Collingwood
Wellington (NZ)0.13 wins - 0.87 winsRealProbs: 0.125231 - 0.874769RealScores: 31.689248 - 80.584603

Gold Coast 48 - 72 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.287399 - 0.712601RealScores: 48.275728 - 72.067853

Gold Coast 43 - 84 Greater Western Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.17 wins - 0.83 winsRealProbs: 0.172276 - 0.827724RealScores: 43.136205 - 83.650730

Gold Coast 47 - 71 Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.288509 - 0.711491RealScores: 47.346617 - 70.995273

Gold Coast 48 - 75 Western Bulldogs
Wellington (NZ)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.257652 - 0.742348RealScores: 47.558984 - 75.300956

Greater Western Sydney 67 - 54 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.626910 - 0.373090RealScores: 67.455708 - 54.042042

Greater Western Sydney 70 - 55 Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.648706 - 0.351294RealScores: 70.455768 - 54.523646

Greater Western Sydney 57 - 62 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.445035 - 0.554965RealScores: 56.600277 - 62.175853

Hawthorn 43 - 60 Collingwood
Wellington (NZ)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.338710 - 0.661290RealScores: 42.615664 - 60.036609

Hawthorn 65 - 54 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.605241 - 0.394759RealScores: 64.508169 - 53.527759

Hawthorn 60 - 52 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.574410 - 0.425590RealScores: 59.967990 - 52.339476

Hawthorn 74 - 42 Gold Coast
Wellington (NZ)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.776513 - 0.223487RealScores: 74.471227 - 41.908450

Hawthorn 63 - 53 Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.600526 - 0.399474RealScores: 62.960354 - 52.500674

Hawthorn 51 - 60 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.410848 - 0.589152RealScores: 50.587467 - 59.803221

Hawthorn 64 - 55 Western Bulldogs
Wellington (NZ)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.583578 - 0.416422RealScores: 63.673848 - 55.061454

North Melbourne 67 - 59 Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.585324 - 0.414676RealScores: 67.418849 - 58.617861

North Melbourne 64 - 68 Carlton Carlton
Wellington (NZ)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.460718 - 0.539282RealScores: 64.323956 - 68.275677

North Melbourne 42 - 67 Collingwood
Wellington (NZ)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.272198 - 0.727802RealScores: 41.625793 - 67.410063

North Melbourne 63 - 60 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.528581 - 0.471419RealScores: 63.050447 - 60.191065

North Melbourne 58 - 59 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.496927 - 0.503073RealScores: 58.624825 - 58.928299

North Melbourne 56 - 68 Geelong Geelong
Wellington (NZ)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.383834 - 0.616166RealScores: 55.572826 - 67.771543

North Melbourne 73 - 47 Gold Coast
Wellington (NZ)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.732266 - 0.267734RealScores: 73.158149 - 46.778596

North Melbourne 62 - 59 Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.528876 - 0.471124RealScores: 61.797185 - 58.907890

North Melbourne 50 - 67 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.336063 - 0.663937RealScores: 49.593419 - 67.330994

North Melbourne 57 - 72 Richmond
Wellington (NZ)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.363554 - 0.636446RealScores: 57.072745 - 71.579071

Port Adelaide 69 - 48 Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.689342 - 0.310658RealScores: 68.553848 - 47.713183

Richmond 76 - 55 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.694290 - 0.305710RealScores: 76.194243 - 54.734908

Richmond 71 - 54 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.659005 - 0.340995RealScores: 70.688548 - 53.539839

Richmond 67 - 61 Geelong Geelong
Wellington (NZ)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.555108 - 0.444892RealScores: 67.021828 - 61.431298

Richmond 88 - 43 Gold Coast
Wellington (NZ)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.859032 - 0.140968RealScores: 88.452380 - 42.505012

Richmond 68 - 63 Greater Western Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.556928 - 0.443072RealScores: 68.330535 - 62.549679

Richmond 75 - 53 Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.692674 - 0.307326RealScores: 74.574872 - 53.318122

Richmond 60 - 61 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.486907 - 0.513093RealScores: 59.588727 - 60.888309

Richmond 76 - 56 Western Bulldogs
Wellington (NZ)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.681827 - 0.318173RealScores: 75.547333 - 55.637034

St Kilda 63 - 61 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.527176 - 0.472824RealScores: 63.395867 - 60.679098

St Kilda 59 - 60 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.494181 - 0.505819RealScores: 58.848796 - 59.424290

St Kilda 56 - 68 Geelong Geelong
Wellington (NZ)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.383342 - 0.616658RealScores: 55.814792 - 68.068759

St Kilda 74 - 47 Gold Coast
Wellington (NZ)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.735339 - 0.264661RealScores: 73.971880 - 47.179760

St Kilda 57 - 69 Greater Western Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.383821 - 0.616179RealScores: 57.084625 - 69.284873

St Kilda 55 - 62 Hawthorn
Wellington (NZ)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.430769 - 0.569231RealScores: 54.905344 - 61.982627

St Kilda 63 - 59 Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.537872 - 0.462128RealScores: 62.644769 - 58.837642

St Kilda 50 - 67 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.340737 - 0.659263RealScores: 50.054489 - 67.233837

Sydney Sydney 61 - 72 Carlton Carlton
Wellington (NZ)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.388212 - 0.611788RealScores: 60.516723 - 72.225188

Sydney Sydney 39 - 71 Collingwood
Wellington (NZ)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.224589 - 0.775411RealScores: 38.929010 - 71.330945

Sydney Sydney 54 - 63 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.411766 - 0.588234RealScores: 54.279682 - 63.395796

Sydney Sydney 52 - 72 Geelong Geelong
Wellington (NZ)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.310635 - 0.689365RealScores: 51.610227 - 72.453747

Sydney Sydney 69 - 50 Gold Coast
Wellington (NZ)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.668282 - 0.331718RealScores: 68.504172 - 50.244167

Sydney Sydney 53 - 74 Greater Western Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.309417 - 0.690583RealScores: 52.815488 - 73.810828

Sydney Sydney 51 - 66 Hawthorn
Wellington (NZ)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.357014 - 0.642986RealScores: 50.804176 - 66.068140

Sydney Sydney 46 - 72 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.272217 - 0.727783RealScores: 46.113601 - 71.895425

Sydney Sydney 52 - 78 Richmond
Wellington (NZ)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.267502 - 0.732498RealScores: 51.672911 - 78.083555

Sydney Sydney 57 - 66 St Kilda
Wellington (NZ)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.419656 - 0.580344RealScores: 57.256433 - 65.520576

West Coast 72 - 59 Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.626994 - 0.373006RealScores: 72.059754 - 58.636614

West Coast 68 - 69 Carlton Carlton
Wellington (NZ)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.498995 - 0.501005RealScores: 68.388693 - 68.487803

West Coast 44 - 67 Collingwood
Wellington (NZ)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.291674 - 0.708326RealScores: 44.179266 - 67.420375

West Coast 67 - 61 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.560721 - 0.439279RealScores: 66.791845 - 60.613215

West Coast 62 - 60 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.522306 - 0.477694RealScores: 61.786196 - 59.561734

West Coast 59 - 68 Geelong Geelong
Wellington (NZ)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.408521 - 0.591479RealScores: 58.674136 - 68.143035

West Coast 60 - 70 Greater Western Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.402425 - 0.597575RealScores: 59.600418 - 69.735659

West Coast 57 - 62 Hawthorn
Wellington (NZ)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.449176 - 0.550824RealScores: 57.289005 - 62.433106

West Coast 65 - 61 North Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.540213 - 0.459787RealScores: 64.875350 - 60.827938

West Coast 64 - 62 St Kilda
Wellington (NZ)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.522284 - 0.477716RealScores: 64.297922 - 62.075742

West Coast 69 - 58 Sydney Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.605991 - 0.394009RealScores: 68.584807 - 57.521358

West Coast 67 - 62 Western Bulldogs
Wellington (NZ)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.552520 - 0.447480RealScores: 66.834932 - 61.514309

Western Bulldogs 66 - 60 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.551050 - 0.448950RealScores: 65.562676 - 60.395069

Western Bulldogs 61 - 60 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.510654 - 0.489346RealScores: 60.574105 - 59.517896

Western Bulldogs 63 - 60 Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.536154 - 0.463846RealScores: 63.484798 - 59.853608

Western Bulldogs 51 - 69 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.332832 - 0.667168RealScores: 50.539956 - 68.665707

		W	L	%
1	Collingwood	12 (12.01)	5	155.1
2	Port Adelaide	11 (11.00)	6	132.5
3	Richmond	11 (11.23)	6	128.4
4	Greater Western Sydney	11 (10.75)	6	123.6
5	Geelong	10 (9.57)	7	115.4
6	Hawthorn	10 (9.71)	7	110.4
7	Brisbane Lions	9 (9.02)	8	108.4
8	West Coast	9 (8.87)	8	101.0
9	Carlton	8 (7.85)	9	96.7
10	St Kilda	8 (7.61)	9	95.7
11	North Melbourne	8 (8.39)	9	93.7
12	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.70)	9	92.4
13	Essendon	8 (7.89)	9	89.1
14	Fremantle	7 (7.38)	10	92.8
15	Melbourne	7 (7.08)	10	88.2
16	Sydney	7 (7.34)	10	84.4
17	Adelaide	6 (5.55)	11	77.0
18	Gold Coast	4 (4.07)	13	59.3

FINALS: WEEK 1

Collingwood 64 - 46 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Richmond 63 - 58 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

Geelong Geelong 69 - 58 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)

Hawthorn 68 - 59 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Greater Western Sydney 68 - 59 Geelong Geelong
Stadium Australia (NSW)

Port Adelaide 65 - 46 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Collingwood 56 - 45 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

Richmond 72 - 59 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

2020 AFL GRAND FINAL

Richmond 53 - 59 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE2020

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

		Flagpole Height
1	Collingwood	64.4
2	Port Adelaide	61.1
3	Richmond	59.9
4	Greater Western Sydney	57.1
5	Geelong	56.6
6	Hawthorn	55.5
7	Brisbane Lions	53.9
8	West Coast	53.6
9	St Kilda	52.4
10	Western Bulldogs	52.1
11	Fremantle	51.5
12	North Melbourne	51.5
13	Carlton	51.4
14	Melbourne	50.5
15	Essendon	49.6
16	Sydney	49.0
17	Adelaide	46.0
18	Gold Coast	41.1

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Collingwood	52.5	76.2	64.4
2	Port Adelaide	54.4	67.7	61.1
3	Richmond	59.2	60.6	59.9
4	Greater Western Sydney	55.5	58.7	57.1
5	Geelong	54.0	59.3	56.6
6	Hawthorn	49.8	61.3	55.5
7	Brisbane Lions	56.0	51.8	53.9
8	West Coast	52.3	54.9	53.6
9	St Kilda	49.9	55.0	52.4
10	Western Bulldogs	50.3	53.9	52.1
11	Fremantle	46.9	56.2	51.5
12	North Melbourne	48.7	54.4	51.5
13	Carlton	52.9	49.8	51.4
14	Melbourne	47.3	53.8	50.5
15	Essendon	47.4	51.8	49.6
16	Sydney	46.3	51.8	49.0
17	Adelaide	44.7	47.2	46.0
18	Gold Coast	37.2	45.1	41.2