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Squiggle

INFO

What Squiggles areHow to play through a seasonPredictionFAQThe ModelFlagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move up; when they score less, they move move down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

201920182017201620152014201320122011
Squiggle v164.7%68.6%61.4%69.1%70.9%72.0%72.5%77.8%77.6%
Squiggle 2.0*65.2%68.1%64.7%74.9%73.8%72.0%73.0%73.4%77.0%
Squiggle 4*65.7%72.5%65.7%73.4%73.8%73.4%74.4%73.9%77.6%

* Squiggle 2.0 before 2018 and Squiggle4 before mid-2018 are "retro-dictions"—made after the result. They shows how well the model fits historical data, rather than how its predictions performed in real time.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Fri Aug 14 22:15:07 2020 (R12)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

Minor PremierTop 4Top 8Bottom 4Spoon

MODE LADDER

LikelihoodIf not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2020 ROUND 12 TIPS

Fremantle 55 - 57 Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: Fremantle +8.1 pts
Ins/Outs: Fremantle +3.5 pts

Geelong 54 - 55 Port Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)
HGA: Port Adelaide +0.8 pts
Ins/Outs: Port Adelaide +2.6 pts

Melbourne 49 - 55 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)
HGA: Melbourne +0.3 pts
Ins/Outs: Melbourne +0.4 pts

North Melbourne 48 - 86 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)
HGA: Brisbane Lions +3.8 pts
Ins/Outs: Brisbane Lions +4.6 pts

Richmond 70 - 51 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)
HGA: Gold Coast +4.0 pts
Ins/Outs: Richmond +0.0 pts

St Kilda 71 - 58 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)
HGA: Essendon +0.3 pts
Ins/Outs: St Kilda +0.0 pts

Sydney 51 - 72 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: Sydney +0.0 pts
Ins/Outs: Sydney +1.6 pts

West Coast 65 - 47 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: West Coast +8.4 pts
Ins/Outs: West Coast +0.0 pts

Western Bulldogs 75 - 45 Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)
HGA: Adelaide +0.3 pts
Ins/Outs: Western Bulldogs +0.0 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE2020
Tips after Round 11: 66

History...

In 2020, algorithm SQUIGGLE2020 correctly tipped 66 games at an accuracy of 68.04%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1


St Kilda (111) defeated Hawthorn (90) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 21)
Western Bulldogs (101) defeated North Melbourne (57) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 44)
Melbourne (103) defeated Adelaide (70) at Casey Fields (VIC) [Melbourne by 33)
Gold Coast (122) defeated Geelong (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 68)
Brisbane Lions (77) lost to Port Adelaide (98) at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 21)
West Coast (87) lost to Essendon (95) at Mineral Resources Park (WA) [Essendon by 8)
Greater Western Sydney (121) defeated Sydney (27) at Blacktown (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 94)
Fremantle (90) defeated Carlton (43) at David Grays Arena (WA) [Fremantle by 47)
Richmond (44) lost to Collingwood (84) at Norm Minns Oval (VIC) [Collingwood by 40)

Round 0.2


Adelaide (64) lost to Gold Coast (71) at Flinders University Stadium (SA) [Gold Coast by 7)
Hawthorn (49) lost to Melbourne (81) at York Park (TAS) [Melbourne by 32)
Port Adelaide (95) defeated Western Bulldogs (85) at Bennett Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 10)
West Coast (54) lost to Fremantle (55) at Arena Joondalup (WA) [Fremantle by 1)
Greater Western Sydney (109) defeated Richmond (95) at Robertson Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 14)
Collingwood (57) lost to St Kilda (68) at Morwell Recreation Reserve (VIC) [St Kilda by 11)
Carlton (66) lost to Brisbane Lions (111) at Princes Park (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 45)
North Melbourne (90) defeated Sydney (79) at Kingston Twin Ovals (TAS) [North Melbourne by 11)
Geelong (61) lost to Essendon (65) at Central Reserve (VIC) [Essendon by 4)

Round 1


Adelaide (71) lost to Sydney (74) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Sydney by 3) Sydney by 5
Essendon (63) defeated Fremantle (57) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Essendon by 6) Fremantle by 0
Gold Coast (29) lost to Port Adelaide (76) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 47) Port Adelaide by 11
Greater Western Sydney (105) defeated Geelong (73) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 1
Hawthorn (90) defeated Brisbane Lions (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 28) Hawthorn by 6
North Melbourne (56) defeated St Kilda (54) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [North Melbourne by 2) St Kilda by 0
Richmond (105) defeated Carlton (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 24) Richmond by 13
West Coast (78) defeated Melbourne (51) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 27) West Coast by 8
Western Bulldogs (34) lost to Collingwood (86) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Collingwood by 52) Western Bulldogs by 0

Round 2


Brisbane Lions (81) defeated Fremantle (69) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 12) Brisbane Lions by 3
Carlton (53) lost to Melbourne (54) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Melbourne by 1) Carlton by 0
Collingwood (36) drew with Richmond (36) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Collingwood by 2
Geelong (108) defeated Hawthorn (47) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 61) Geelong by 8
Gold Coast (90) defeated West Coast (46) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 44) West Coast by 22
Greater Western Sydney (60) lost to North Melbourne (80) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [North Melbourne by 20) Greater Western Sydney by 18
Port Adelaide (110) defeated Adelaide (35) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 75) Port Adelaide by 30
St Kilda (88) defeated Western Bulldogs (49) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [St Kilda by 39) St Kilda by 0
Sydney (73) lost to Essendon (79) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Essendon by 6) Sydney by 0

Round 3


Brisbane Lions (74) defeated West Coast (44) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 30) Brisbane Lions by 9
Collingwood (81) defeated St Kilda (37) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 44) Collingwood by 15
Fremantle (41) lost to Port Adelaide (70) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 29) Port Adelaide by 21
Geelong (77) lost to Carlton (79) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Carlton by 2) Geelong by 20
Gold Coast (82) defeated Adelaide (29) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 53) Gold Coast by 7
North Melbourne (60) lost to Sydney (71) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Sydney by 11) North Melbourne by 10
Richmond (39) lost to Hawthorn (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 32) Richmond by 11
Western Bulldogs (57) defeated Greater Western Sydney (33) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 24) Greater Western Sydney by 0

Round 4


Brisbane Lions (83) defeated Adelaide (46) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 37) Brisbane Lions by 48
Essendon (51) lost to Carlton (52) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 1) Carlton by 6
Gold Coast (64) defeated Fremantle (51) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 13) Fremantle by 0
Greater Western Sydney (66) defeated Collingwood (64) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 2) Collingwood by 12
Hawthorn (58) defeated North Melbourne (54) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Hawthorn by 4) Hawthorn by 8
Melbourne (44) lost to Geelong (47) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 3) Geelong by 19
Port Adelaide (89) defeated West Coast (41) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 48) Port Adelaide by 25
St Kilda (93) defeated Richmond (67) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [St Kilda by 26) Richmond by 17
Sydney (39) lost to Western Bulldogs (67) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 28) Sydney by 0

Round 5


Adelaide (34) lost to Fremantle (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Fremantle by 20) Fremantle by 11
Brisbane Lions (85) defeated Port Adelaide (48) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 37) Port Adelaide by 14
Carlton (55) lost to St Kilda (73) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [St Kilda by 18) St Kilda by 0
Collingwood (48) lost to Essendon (63) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 15) Collingwood by 33
Geelong (89) defeated Gold Coast (52) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 37) Geelong by 22
Greater Western Sydney (83) defeated Hawthorn (49) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 34) Greater Western Sydney by 0
Melbourne (52) lost to Richmond (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 10
West Coast (77) defeated Sydney (43) at Carrara (QLD) [West Coast by 34) West Coast by 0
Western Bulldogs (87) defeated North Melbourne (38) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 49) Western Bulldogs by 0

Round 6


Carlton (103) defeated Western Bulldogs (51) at Carrara (QLD) [Carlton by 52) Western Bulldogs by 3
Collingwood (59) defeated Hawthorn (27) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Collingwood by 32) Collingwood by 10
Essendon (67) defeated North Melbourne (53) at Carrara (QLD) [Essendon by 14) Essendon by 11
Fremantle (79) defeated St Kilda (73) at Carrara (QLD) [Fremantle by 6) St Kilda by 8
Geelong (73) defeated Brisbane Lions (46) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Geelong by 27) Brisbane Lions by 3
Melbourne (80) defeated Gold Coast (63) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Melbourne by 17) Melbourne by 3
Port Adelaide (63) defeated Greater Western Sydney (46) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 17) Port Adelaide by 9
Richmond (34) defeated Sydney (26) at Gabba (QLD) [Richmond by 8) Richmond by 18
West Coast (67) defeated Adelaide (34) at Gabba (QLD) [West Coast by 33) West Coast by 19

Round 7


Adelaide (55) lost to St Kilda (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 23) St Kilda by 26
Carlton (61) lost to Port Adelaide (64) at Gabba (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 3) Port Adelaide by 11
Essendon (51) lost to Western Bulldogs (93) at Carrara (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 42) Western Bulldogs by 6
Fremantle (32) lost to West Coast (62) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 30) West Coast by 4
Geelong (35) lost to Collingwood (57) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Collingwood by 22) Collingwood by 7
Greater Western Sydney (68) lost to Brisbane Lions (88) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 20) Brisbane Lions by 0
Hawthorn (48) lost to Melbourne (91) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Melbourne by 43) Hawthorn by 7
Richmond (77) defeated North Melbourne (23) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 54) Richmond by 15
Sydney (60) lost to Gold Coast (92) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Gold Coast by 32) Sydney by 2

Round 8


Adelaide (59) lost to Essendon (62) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 3) Essendon by 16
Fremantle (16) lost to Geelong (48) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Geelong by 32) Geelong by 4
Gold Coast (46) lost to Western Bulldogs (51) at Carrara (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 5) Western Bulldogs by 4
Greater Western Sydney (62) defeated Richmond (50) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 12) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Melbourne (49) lost to Brisbane Lions (53) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 4) Brisbane Lions by 13
North Melbourne (57) lost to Carlton (64) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 7) Carlton by 13
Port Adelaide (44) lost to St Kilda (73) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 29) Port Adelaide by 20
Sydney (60) defeated Hawthorn (53) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 7) Hawthorn by 5
West Coast (111) defeated Collingwood (45) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 66) Collingwood by 3

Round 9


Carlton (58) lost to Hawthorn (89) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Hawthorn by 31) Carlton by 1
Essendon (28) lost to Brisbane Lions (91) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 63) Brisbane Lions by 24
Fremantle (61) defeated Collingwood (49) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 12) Collingwood by 21
Gold Coast (35) lost to Greater Western Sydney (61) at Carrara (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 26) Greater Western Sydney by 9
Melbourne (32) lost to Port Adelaide (83) at Gabba (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 51) Port Adelaide by 15
North Melbourne (119) defeated Adelaide (50) at Carrara (QLD) [North Melbourne by 69) North Melbourne by 13
St Kilda (101) defeated Sydney (48) at Gabba (QLD) [St Kilda by 53) St Kilda by 20
West Coast (73) defeated Geelong (64) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 9) Geelong by 7
Western Bulldogs (49) lost to Richmond (90) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 41) Western Bulldogs by 0

Round 10


Adelaide (37) lost to Melbourne (88) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 51) Melbourne by 18
Collingwood (50) defeated Sydney (41) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 9) Collingwood by 35
Essendon (55) lost to Greater Western Sydney (59) at Carrara (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 4) Greater Western Sydney by 6
Geelong (90) defeated North Melbourne (57) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 33) Geelong by 26
Gold Coast (74) lost to St Kilda (78) at Carrara (QLD) [St Kilda by 4) St Kilda by 11
Port Adelaide (55) defeated Western Bulldogs (42) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 13) Port Adelaide by 22
Richmond (82) defeated Brisbane Lions (41) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 41) Richmond by 4

Round 11


Adelaide (38) lost to Collingwood (62) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 24) Collingwood by 30
Brisbane Lions (96) defeated Western Bulldogs (72) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 24) Brisbane Lions by 17
Fremantle (48) defeated Hawthorn (32) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 16) Fremantle by 1
Gold Coast (73) drew with Essendon (73) at Carrara (QLD) [DRAW by 0) Gold Coast by 1
Melbourne (92) defeated North Melbourne (35) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 57) Melbourne by 2
Port Adelaide (93) defeated Richmond (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 21) Port Adelaide by 5
St Kilda (34) lost to Geelong (93) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 59) Geelong by 25
West Coast (72) defeated Carlton (50) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 22) West Coast by 18

Round 12


Geelong (91) defeated Port Adelaide (31) at Carrara (QLD) [Geelong by 60) Port Adelaide by 0
Sydney (66) defeated Greater Western Sydney (25) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 41) Greater Western Sydney by 22

Round 13


Round 99

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

90%
10%

SEASON PREDICTOR


Recalculate

Wins%
1
Port Adelaide
12.5130.6%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2
Geelong
11.9143.7%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
3
Brisbane Lions
12.1123.7%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4
West Coast
11.2117.5%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
5
Richmond
10.5122.3%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
6
Collingwood
10.1116.3%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
7
St Kilda
10.0107.6%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
8
Greater Western Sydney
9.2100.9%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
9
Melbourne
8.9109.7%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
10
Western Bulldogs
8.195.1%
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
11
Carlton
7.9100.7%
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
12
Essendon
7.784.4%
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
13
Hawthorn
7.490.8%
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
14
Fremantle
6.988.8%
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
15
Gold Coast
6.894.8%
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
16
Sydney
5.881.1%
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
17
North Melbourne
4.879.4%
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
Adelaide
1.157.7%
18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 12

Fremantle 55 - 57 Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.475358 - 0.524642RealScores: 54.690843 - 56.782493

Melbourne 49 - 55 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.435524 - 0.564476RealScores: 48.534676 - 54.694790

North Melbourne 48 - 86 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.18 wins - 0.82 winsRealProbs: 0.179189 - 0.820811RealScores: 47.698793 - 86.157110

Richmond 70 - 51 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.683356 - 0.316644RealScores: 70.452470 - 50.938724

St Kilda 71 - 58 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.623442 - 0.376558RealScores: 70.628728 - 58.099758

West Coast 65 - 47 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.663458 - 0.336542RealScores: 64.572830 - 47.444015

Western Bulldogs 75 - 45 Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.765114 - 0.234886RealScores: 75.055724 - 44.894609

WLD%
1
Port Adelaide
9 (9.00)30127.5
2
Brisbane Lions
9 (8.82)30123.6
3
Geelong
8 (8.00)40138.5
4
West Coast
8 (7.66)30118.7
5
St Kilda
8 (7.62)40112.3
6
Richmond
7 (6.68)41118.2
7
Collingwood
7 (6.56)41115.8
8
Greater Western Sydney
6 (6.00)5098.2
9
Western Bulldogs
6 (5.77)6094.4
10
Essendon
5 (5.38)5189.2
11
Melbourne
5 (5.44)60108.1
12
Carlton
5 (4.52)6095.3
13
Gold Coast
4 (4.32)7198.2
14
Fremantle
4 (4.48)7088.9
15
Sydney
4 (4.00)7084.8
16
Hawthorn
4 (4.34)7084.2
17
North Melbourne
3 (3.18)9079.4
18
Adelaide
0 (0.23)12055.9

Round 13

Adelaide 37 - 82 Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.14 wins - 0.86 winsRealProbs: 0.138274 - 0.861726RealScores: 36.972950 - 82.041654

Brisbane Lions 78 - 63 St Kilda
Gabba (QLD)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.642293 - 0.357707RealScores: 77.850922 - 63.301869

Collingwood 66 - 44 North Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.709428 - 0.290572RealScores: 66.239348 - 43.638977

Essendon 50 - 74 Richmond
Marrara Oval (NT)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.274968 - 0.725032RealScores: 49.524041 - 74.118480

Fremantle 54 - 47 Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.576168 - 0.423832RealScores: 54.333313 - 47.034394

Gold Coast 56 - 67 Carlton
Marrara Oval (NT)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.391757 - 0.608243RealScores: 56.253866 - 66.996070

Port Adelaide 67 - 44 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.711991 - 0.288009RealScores: 67.125553 - 44.201250

West Coast 68 - 52 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.652715 - 0.347285RealScores: 67.576124 - 51.827596

Western Bulldogs 57 - 58 Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.486823 - 0.513177RealScores: 56.812410 - 57.696175

WLD%
1
Port Adelaide
10 (9.71)30129.0
2
Geelong
9 (8.86)40143.1
3
Brisbane Lions
9 (9.46)40123.6
4
West Coast
8 (8.32)40119.6
5
St Kilda
8 (7.98)50109.4
6
Richmond
7 (7.41)51120.4
7
Collingwood
7 (7.27)51118.2
8
Essendon
6 (5.65)5187.2
9
Melbourne
6 (5.95)60107.5
10
Greater Western Sydney
6 (6.35)6096.3
11
Western Bulldogs
6 (6.25)7094.7
12
Gold Coast
5 (4.71)7197.1
13
Carlton
5 (5.13)7097.0
14
Fremantle
5 (5.05)7090.8
15
Hawthorn
5 (4.62)7082.6
16
Sydney
4 (4.42)8084.9
17
North Melbourne
3 (3.47)10078.4
18
Adelaide
0 (0.37)13055.0

Round 99

Adelaide 44 - 68 Hawthorn
Wellington (NZ)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.279711 - 0.720289RealScores: 43.522895 - 68.315958

Brisbane Lions 57 - 58 Collingwood
Wellington (NZ)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.495736 - 0.504264RealScores: 56.831027 - 57.252436

Brisbane Lions 78 - 56 Gold Coast
Wellington (NZ)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.700949 - 0.299051RealScores: 78.150314 - 55.850784

Carlton 77 - 46 Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.768065 - 0.231935RealScores: 77.460338 - 46.121026

Carlton 63 - 74 Brisbane Lions
Wellington (NZ)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.394751 - 0.605249RealScores: 63.376831 - 74.358074

Carlton 49 - 57 Collingwood
Wellington (NZ)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.418999 - 0.581001RealScores: 48.989564 - 57.324370

Collingwood 61 - 43 Gold Coast
Wellington (NZ)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.663272 - 0.336728RealScores: 60.561471 - 42.903523

Collingwood 49 - 51 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.485404 - 0.514596RealScores: 49.444487 - 50.894317

Essendon 54 - 61 Hawthorn
Wellington (NZ)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.433519 - 0.566481RealScores: 53.719016 - 60.504940

Essendon 49 - 72 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.289052 - 0.710948RealScores: 48.504100 - 72.082665

Fremantle 56 - 55 North Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.513709 - 0.486291RealScores: 56.048413 - 54.687285

Fremantle 42 - 67 Richmond
Wellington (NZ)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.281196 - 0.718804RealScores: 42.166343 - 66.765086

Geelong 75 - 42 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.780663 - 0.219337RealScores: 75.118679 - 41.946631

Geelong 61 - 50 Richmond
Wellington (NZ)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.601769 - 0.398231RealScores: 61.054368 - 50.457778

Geelong 73 - 38 Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.788658 - 0.211342RealScores: 72.850269 - 38.488778

Geelong 69 - 45 Western Bulldogs
Wellington (NZ)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.713974 - 0.286026RealScores: 68.744157 - 44.774235

Greater Western Sydney 74 - 46 Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.747108 - 0.252892RealScores: 74.182156 - 45.787979

Greater Western Sydney 61 - 63 Carlton
Wellington (NZ)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.474962 - 0.525038RealScores: 60.902633 - 63.402982

Greater Western Sydney 59 - 48 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.611186 - 0.388814RealScores: 59.407385 - 47.766133

Greater Western Sydney 63 - 65 St Kilda
Wellington (NZ)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.480733 - 0.519267RealScores: 62.776293 - 64.694719

Hawthorn 59 - 53 Gold Coast
Wellington (NZ)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.556925 - 0.443075RealScores: 59.004512 - 53.224052

Hawthorn 57 - 62 St Kilda
Wellington (NZ)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.454774 - 0.545226RealScores: 57.466450 - 62.030463

Melbourne 64 - 52 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.607347 - 0.392653RealScores: 63.656033 - 52.442092

Melbourne 58 - 44 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.624728 - 0.375272RealScores: 57.575724 - 44.410245

Melbourne 59 - 56 Greater Western Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.524775 - 0.475225RealScores: 58.698172 - 56.224477

Melbourne 61 - 60 St Kilda
Wellington (NZ)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.508690 - 0.491310RealScores: 60.869376 - 60.008722

Melbourne 62 - 48 Sydney
Wellington (NZ)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.633293 - 0.366707RealScores: 62.117879 - 47.974318

North Melbourne 59 - 66 Gold Coast
Wellington (NZ)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.434773 - 0.565227RealScores: 58.919021 - 65.572468

North Melbourne 48 - 78 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.24 wins - 0.76 winsRealProbs: 0.242675 - 0.757325RealScores: 48.027394 - 77.841952

Richmond 84 - 40 Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.85 wins - 0.15 winsRealProbs: 0.845772 - 0.154228RealScores: 83.744955 - 40.162419

Sydney 53 - 77 Brisbane Lions
Wellington (NZ)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.283785 - 0.716215RealScores: 52.639972 - 76.901003

Sydney 53 - 66 Carlton
Wellington (NZ)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.374407 - 0.625593RealScores: 52.844608 - 66.108434

Sydney 45 - 69 Port Adelaide
Wellington (NZ)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.286832 - 0.713168RealScores: 45.325677 - 69.191134

West Coast 68 - 53 Essendon
Wellington (NZ)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.641003 - 0.358997RealScores: 67.971158 - 52.937675

West Coast 74 - 52 North Melbourne
Wellington (NZ)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.695622 - 0.304378RealScores: 73.749881 - 52.123292

West Coast 55 - 64 Richmond
Wellington (NZ)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.420256 - 0.579744RealScores: 55.361032 - 63.560718

West Coast 65 - 61 St Kilda
Wellington (NZ)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.543541 - 0.456459RealScores: 64.948612 - 60.558587

Western Bulldogs 60 - 47 Fremantle
Wellington (NZ)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.615072 - 0.384928RealScores: 59.524570 - 47.448615

Western Bulldogs 58 - 55 Hawthorn
Wellington (NZ)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.532354 - 0.467646RealScores: 58.196569 - 54.953434

Western Bulldogs 57 - 62 West Coast
Wellington (NZ)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.445186 - 0.554814RealScores: 56.683680 - 62.243496

WLD%
1
Geelong
12 (11.75)50146.2
2
Port Adelaide
12 (12.41)50131.7
3
Brisbane Lions
12 (11.98)50123.9
4
West Coast
11 (11.17)60117.8
5
Richmond
10 (9.95)61123.1
6
Collingwood
10 (9.51)61116.9
7
St Kilda
10 (9.99)70107.4
8
Melbourne
9 (8.85)80109.9
9
Greater Western Sydney
9 (9.14)80100.5
10
Carlton
8 (7.87)90100.3
11
Western Bulldogs
8 (8.13)9094.5
12
Essendon
7 (7.35)9183.1
13
Hawthorn
7 (7.39)10089.8
14
Fremantle
7 (7.00)10087.4
15
Gold Coast
6 (6.35)10194.2
16
Sydney
6 (5.95)11079.7
17
North Melbourne
5 (4.94)12078.4
18
Adelaide
1 (1.29)16055.6

FINALS: WEEK 1

Port Adelaide 65 - 51 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)

Geelong 72 - 53 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)

Richmond 70 - 51 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Collingwood 59 - 50 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 2

West Coast 60 - 59 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)

Brisbane Lions 59 - 55 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Port Adelaide 70 - 60 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)

Geelong 66 - 45 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)

2020 AFL GRAND FINAL

Geelong 62 - 47 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE2020

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

Flagpole Height
1Geelong68.2
2Richmond61.4
3Port Adelaide61.4
4Collingwood61.1
5Brisbane Lions59.6
6West Coast57.5
7Melbourne55.8
8St Kilda55.3
9Carlton54.5
10Western Bulldogs54.4
11Greater Western Sydney54.0
12Hawthorn52.6
13Essendon49.5
14Gold Coast49.4
15Fremantle48.5
16Sydney47.8
17North Melbourne45.5
18Adelaide37.9

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

AttackDefenceCombined
1Geelong58.777.768.2
2Richmond57.765.361.5
3Port Adelaide56.166.761.4
4Collingwood48.174.361.2
5Brisbane Lions62.157.159.6
6West Coast53.361.857.6
7Melbourne49.962.256.1
8St Kilda55.155.855.5
9Carlton53.356.955.1
10Western Bulldogs51.758.455.0
11Greater Western Sydney51.257.554.3
12Hawthorn46.960.153.5
13Gold Coast47.054.150.6
14Essendon47.652.950.2
15Sydney44.355.049.7
16Fremantle40.458.649.5
17North Melbourne47.149.048.1
18Adelaide38.446.742.6

EDIT SQUIGGLE

Oooh past

Oooh future

TODO:

(1) Allow for updating of FLAGPOLE

(2) Allow for updating of TOWER

(3) Allow for updating of TIPS

(4) Allow for modification of future games

(5) Allow for modification of past games

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