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Squiggle

INFO

What Squiggles areHow to play through a seasonPredictionFAQThe ModelFlagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

Squiggle 2.0

In 2018, Squiggle has a new engine. The main differences to the previous model are:

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

2017201620152014201320122011
Squiggle v161.4%69.1%70.9%72.0%72.5%77.8%77.6%
Squiggle 2.0*64.3%74.4%73.8%70.5%73.4%73.9%78.1%

* Squiggle 2.0 numbers before 2018 are "retro-dictions"—they were made after the result. This shows how well the model fits historical data, rather than how reliable its predictions have been in practice.

Squiggle v1

Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm (ISTATE-91:12).

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

Things work faster with fewer teams. If the chart is sluggish, try removing some!

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. These update at noon on Tuesdays. The predicted scorelines are what Squiggle expects. The more the actual scoreline differs from this, the more teams will move.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

For each match, Squiggle predicts a scoreline, given their current position and the venue at which the game will be played. If this turns out to be exactly right, the teams will remain where they are, since this means Squiggle has them positioned right. If, however, the scoreline is different, the teams will move. A team that scores more points than Squiggle expected will move ⇡ up; a team that scored fewer will move ⇣ down; a team that held its opposition to a lower score will move ⇢ right; and a team that allowed its opposition to score more will move ⇠ left.

Usually two of these things happen at once! A team will score either more or less than predicted, as well as allowing their opposition to score either more or less than predicted. So they will move on a diagonal:

Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

Why doesn't Squiggle consider more factors?

  1. I haven't seen enough evidence that it makes a difference, i.e. significantly improves tipping accuracy.

  2. I want to keep the model as simple as possible, so squiggles can be a tool that enhances your ability to understand football, rather than an algorithm that replaces your own insight.

If you want a full-on predictor, there is some great stuff at Matter of Stats, Footy Maths Institute and Footy Forecaster.

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Possible flaws, which you may decide to compensate for, include:

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * (TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE) + HOME ADVANTAGE

For example, in a match at a neutral venue between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * (56 ÷ 50) + 0 = 95 points.

HOME ADVANTAGE is 6 when a team plays an interstate side at home, -6 when it plays an interstate side away, otherwise 0.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results for the year, in which the most recent round comprises 9% of the final value.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The constants in this model (weighting the most recent round at 9%, considering 85 points a "typical" score, awarding a 12-point relative advantage to home sides playing interstate sides, and using exactly one previous season's results as a starting point each year) were chosen simply by simulating all possible values and seeing which produced the most accurate predictions over the course of the last 20 seasons or so.

The axis units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Home Ground Advantage

In Squiggle v1, 12 points were awarded for HOME ADVANTAGE in games between interstate teams. Squiggle 2.0 uses a more nuanced model based on ground familiarity, where teams are compared on the number of times they have played at the same venue and in the same state. From this, up to 11 points of home ground advantage can be awarded (in the extreme situation where one team has played at the venue many times while the other hasn't even visited the same state), plus 2 points for hosting an interstate opponent at home.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Flagpole

Flagpole is tuned to predict premiers. In particular, it's good at:

It's similar to eyeballing how close teams are to the ideal cluster of premiership cups on the Squiggle chart.

Record

Flagpole has a 15-5 record (75%) at picking Grand Final winners over the last 20 years (1997-2016). The years it got wrong are 1997, 2004, 2008, 2012, and 2016.

On average, it has rated the eventual premier within 1.55 rungs of top spot through the season. This is equivalent to rating the eventual premier 4th for half the season and 1st for the other half.

Why Flagpole?

If you eyeball the Squiggle chart, you can see that premiership cups aren't evenly distributed: there are more in the attacking area of the chart. So there's a slight difference between how likely a team is to win any random match (which is what the regular squiggle does), and how likely they are to win the flag. To predict the premier, we need to account for this.

Also, tipping finals one game at a time, like the Season Predictor does, is very dependent on knife-edge results, so that small changes can lead to very different precitions. Flagpole is more stable, has better historical accuracy, and is more consistent with what you see on the chart, i.e. that a team surrounded by premiership cups is in a better place than a very defensive one out on its own.

What Flagpole Rates

Compared to the regular squiggle algorithm:

Why Flagpole Rates That Stuff

Because that's what premiers have done over the last twenty years. Explosive attack specialists such as Hawthorn and Geelong have won plenty of flags; defence merchants like Fremantle and St. Kilda have not.

Defensive teams have won premierships, of course, but far less frequently, even after accounting for how many of them there are. For example, in 2015, the Final Eight had five teams that were either balanced or attack specialists, and three defence-heavy teams in Fremantle (1st), Sydney (4th), and Richmond (5th). Those three lost every single game except when they played each other.

Flaws

Flagpole ignores the path a team must take to the flag. It ignores the difficulty of the games it must win, whether the team gets to play finals at home or away, how many interstate trips are required, whether it has a week off, and even how likely it is to make finals at all.

This can look pretty strange, e.g. it may rank a team 5th when it is going to miss finals. This will happen if a team displays the kind of form that would give it a decent shot at the flag if only it did make finals (such as a team making a run late in the year). For this reason, Flagpole can be occasionally definitely wrong about some mid-ranked teams compared to others, by ranking a team that won't make finals higher than one that will.

I haven't attempted to adjust for this because we don't have enough objective data on how beneficial it is to play finals at home, or travel less, or have a week off, or anything else. So Flagpole is purely a form rating.

Design

Like all my squiggle stuff, this came about by leaving the computer alone to brute-force hundreds of thousands of combinations of variables, algorithms, and filters, and coming back later to see what did well. The advantage of this method is that I don't need to be smart enough to design clever algorithms; I just find them. In fact, usually I don't even know why they work at first; I have to figure that out afterwards.

The disadvantage is it's easy to find algorithms that work well from pure chance, which fit the historical data well but don't actually have any predictive or descriptive power. To reduce the risk of this, I prefer simple algorithms with very few inputs (often only scorelines), and I use as much data as possible, like 20 years worth of results. But that still isn't much data when it comes to finals and Grand Finals.

How To Make Your Own Flagpole

Flagpole is an algorithm named OFFDEF4G-95:79.

  1. Assign every team an ATTACK score of 50 and a DEFENCE score of 50
  2. Look up the results of the first game of last year
  3. Predict scores using the formula: TEAM A PREDICTED SCORE = 79 * TEAM A ATTACK / TEAM B DEFENCE
  4. Compare predicted scores to actual scores by using the same relationship described above, so that TEAM A HYPOTHETICAL ATTACK = TEAM A ACTUAL SCORE * TEAM B DEFENCE / 79 and TEAM A HYPOTHETICAL DEFENCE = 79 * TEAM A ATTACK / TEAM B ACTUAL SCORE.
  5. Here is the unique thing about OFFDEF4: square and double the HYPOTHETICAL ATTACK score. That is: NEW HYPOTHETICAL ATTACK = HYPOTHETICAL ATTACK * HYPOTHETICAL ATTACK * 2.
  6. Assign new ATTACK and DEFENCE scores to each team, where 95% of the new score is the old score and 5% is the new score. That is: TEAM A NEW ATTACK = (0.95 * TEAM A OLD ATTACK) + (0.05 * TEAM A NEW HYPOTHETICAL ATTACK). Ditto for DEFENCE.
  7. Repeat steps #2-#6 for every game.

That's it! Just one other thing: because this algorithm generates a lot of inflation over a season (which is good, I believe, because it means more more weighting for finals performances), its tips are only good as margins. If you want it to predict absolute scores, you need to increasingly scale back its predicted numbers, or else you get Grand Final tips where both teams are tipped to score well over 100.

Generated: Sun May 20 19:09:30 2018 (R9)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide an up-to-date result. This happens mid-round, as it's not practical to continually regenerate 100,000 season simulations. Once the round is complete, a full run is made.

2018 ROUND 9 TIPS

AdelaideAdelaide 105 - 72 Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA: +11.7 pts

North MelbourneNorth Melbourne 76 - 70 Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney
Bellerive Oval (TAS)
HGA: +7.8 pts

Gold CoastGold Coast 59 - 92 Port Adelaide Port Adelaide
Jiangwan Stadium (CHI)
HGA: +0.0 pts

EssendonEssendon 72 - 96 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +2.2 pts

SydneySydney 90 - 62 Fremantle Fremantle
S.C.G. (NSW)
HGA: +11.3 pts

St KildaSt Kilda 68 - 89 Collingwood Collingwood
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: +1.6 pts

CarltonCarlton 69 - 102 Melbourne Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: -0.2 pts

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions 76 - 90 Hawthorn Hawthorn
Gabba (QLD)
HGA: +12.1 pts

West CoastWest Coast 71 - 86 Richmond Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: +11.5 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE2
Tips after Round 8: 48

History...

In 2018, algorithm SQUIGGLE2 correctly tipped 54 games at an accuracy of 66.67%.

Draws are counted as correct tips.

Round 0.1


North Melbourne (71) lost to Melbourne (124) at Kingston Twin Ovals (TAS) [Melbourne by 53)
Essendon (37) lost to Richmond (124) at Norm Minns Oval (VIC) [Richmond by 87)
Adelaide (91) defeated Fremantle (81) at Strathalbyn Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 10)
West Coast (56) defeated Port Adelaide (54) at Leederville Oval (WA) [West Coast by 2)
Carlton (89) defeated St Kilda (67) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 22)
Greater Western Sydney (96) defeated Collingwood (36) at Manuka Oval (ACT) [Greater Western Sydney by 60)
Western Bulldogs (100) defeated Hawthorn (78) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 22)
Brisbane Lions (40) lost to Sydney (95) at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex (QLD) [Sydney by 55)
Gold Coast (85) defeated Geelong (29) at Riverway Stadium (QLD) [Gold Coast by 56)

Round 0.2


Richmond (128) defeated North Melbourne (58) at Princes Park (VIC) [Richmond by 70)
Melbourne (119) defeated St Kilda (93) at Casey Fields (VIC) [Melbourne by 26)
Sydney (82) defeated Greater Western Sydney (71) at Blacktown (NSW) [Sydney by 11)
Collingwood (113) defeated Western Bulldogs (80) at Ted Summerton Reserve (VIC) [Collingwood by 33)
Adelaide (72) lost to Port Adelaide (98) at Alberton Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 26)
Hawthorn (97) lost to Carlton (102) at York Park (TAS) [Carlton by 5)
Geelong (97) lost to Essendon (101) at Central Reserve (VIC) [Essendon by 4)
Gold Coast (49) defeated Brisbane Lions (42) at Fankhauser Reserve (QLD) [Gold Coast by 7)
Fremantle (101) defeated West Coast (39) at Arena Joondalup (WA) [Fremantle by 62)

Round 1


Richmond (121) defeated Carlton (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 26) Richmond by 36
Essendon (99) defeated Adelaide (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 12) Adelaide by 11
St Kilda (107) defeated Brisbane Lions (82) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 25) St Kilda by 37
Port Adelaide (110) defeated Fremantle (60) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 50) Port Adelaide by 41
Gold Coast (55) defeated North Melbourne (39) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Gold Coast by 16) North Melbourne by 3
Hawthorn (101) defeated Collingwood (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 34) Collingwood by 3
Greater Western Sydney (133) defeated Western Bulldogs (51) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 82) Greater Western Sydney by 23
Melbourne (94) lost to Geelong (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 3) Geelong by 10
West Coast (86) lost to Sydney (115) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 29) Sydney by 9

Round 2


Adelaide (118) defeated Richmond (82) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 36) Adelaide by 1
North Melbourne (95) defeated St Kilda (43) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 52) St Kilda by 19
Carlton (67) lost to Gold Coast (101) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 34) Carlton by 15
Collingwood (79) lost to Greater Western Sydney (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 16) Greater Western Sydney by 18
Brisbane Lions (74) lost to Melbourne (100) at Gabba (QLD) [Melbourne by 26) Melbourne by 12
Fremantle (106) defeated Essendon (90) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 16) Essendon by 16
Western Bulldogs (70) lost to West Coast (121) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 51) Western Bulldogs by 7
Sydney (71) lost to Port Adelaide (94) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Port Adelaide by 23) Sydney by 9
Geelong (117) lost to Hawthorn (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 1) Geelong by 4

Round 3


Carlton (76) lost to Collingwood (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 24) Collingwood by 16
Port Adelaide (97) defeated Brisbane Lions (92) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 5) Port Adelaide by 59
Melbourne (123) defeated North Melbourne (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 37) Melbourne by 12
Gold Coast (68) lost to Fremantle (96) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 28) Fremantle by 13
St Kilda (55) lost to Adelaide (104) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 49) Adelaide by 24
Sydney (103) defeated Greater Western Sydney (87) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 16) Greater Western Sydney by 4
Richmond (102) defeated Hawthorn (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 13) Richmond by 19
Western Bulldogs (104) defeated Essendon (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 21) Essendon by 14
West Coast (95) defeated Geelong (80) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 15) West Coast by 4

Round 4


Adelaide (58) lost to Collingwood (106) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 48) Adelaide by 39
Greater Western Sydney (82) defeated Fremantle (51) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 31) Greater Western Sydney by 41
Richmond (110) defeated Brisbane Lions (17) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 93) Richmond by 50
Western Bulldogs (79) lost to Sydney (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 7) Sydney by 12
North Melbourne (116) defeated Carlton (30) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 86) North Melbourne by 14
West Coast (139) defeated Gold Coast (59) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 80) West Coast by 26
Essendon (106) defeated Port Adelaide (84) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 22) Port Adelaide by 14
Hawthorn (115) defeated Melbourne (48) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 67) Hawthorn by 0
Geelong (103) defeated St Kilda (56) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 47) Geelong by 29

Round 5


Sydney (75) lost to Adelaide (85) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Adelaide by 10) Sydney by 11
St Kilda (73) drew with Greater Western Sydney (73) at Docklands (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Greater Western Sydney by 24
Carlton (69) lost to West Coast (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [West Coast by 10) West Coast by 19
Port Adelaide (50) lost to Geelong (84) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 34) Port Adelaide by 21
Fremantle (108) defeated Western Bulldogs (54) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 54) Fremantle by 5
North Melbourne (98) defeated Hawthorn (70) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 28) Hawthorn by 9
Brisbane Lions (71) lost to Gold Coast (76) at Gabba (QLD) [Gold Coast by 5) Brisbane Lions by 3
Melbourne (56) lost to Richmond (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 46) Richmond by 32
Collingwood (101) defeated Essendon (52) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 49) Collingwood by 13

Round 6


Western Bulldogs (80) defeated Carlton (59) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 21) Western Bulldogs by 17
Geelong (69) lost to Sydney (86) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Sydney by 17) Geelong by 14
North Melbourne (69) lost to Port Adelaide (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 33) North Melbourne by 6
Greater Western Sydney (77) defeated Brisbane Lions (43) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 34) Greater Western Sydney by 55
Hawthorn (89) defeated St Kilda (54) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 35) Hawthorn by 24
Adelaide (110) defeated Gold Coast (62) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 48) Adelaide by 47
Essendon (72) lost to Melbourne (108) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 36) Melbourne by 5
Collingwood (70) lost to Richmond (113) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 43) Richmond by 18
Fremantle (81) lost to West Coast (89) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 8) West Coast by 8

Round 7


Geelong (93) defeated Greater Western Sydney (32) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 61) Geelong by 4
Western Bulldogs (81) defeated Gold Coast (72) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 9) Western Bulldogs by 23
Essendon (67) lost to Hawthorn (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 23) Hawthorn by 13
West Coast (102) defeated Port Adelaide (60) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 42) West Coast by 3
Sydney (66) lost to North Melbourne (68) at S.C.G. (NSW) [North Melbourne by 2) Sydney by 22
Adelaide (125) defeated Carlton (70) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 55) Adelaide by 51
Richmond (110) defeated Fremantle (33) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 77) Richmond by 48
St Kilda (67) lost to Melbourne (106) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 39) Melbourne by 12
Brisbane Lions (114) lost to Collingwood (121) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 7) Collingwood by 21

Round 8


Hawthorn (71) lost to Sydney (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 8) Hawthorn by 3
Greater Western Sydney (61) lost to West Coast (86) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [West Coast by 25) Greater Western Sydney by 16
Carlton (91) defeated Essendon (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 13) Essendon by 16
Gold Coast (77) lost to Melbourne (146) at Gabba (QLD) [Melbourne by 69) Melbourne by 12
Port Adelaide (95) defeated Adelaide (90) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 5) Adelaide by 1
Western Bulldogs (107) defeated Brisbane Lions (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 14) Western Bulldogs by 18
Fremantle (89) defeated St Kilda (59) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 30) Fremantle by 17
North Melbourne (72) lost to Richmond (82) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 10) Richmond by 31
Collingwood (45) lost to Geelong (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 21) Geelong by 1

Round 9


Adelaide (63) defeated Western Bulldogs (26) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 37) Adelaide by 33
North Melbourne (112) defeated Greater Western Sydney (69) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 43) North Melbourne by 6
Gold Coast (42) lost to Port Adelaide (82) at Jiangwan Stadium (CHI) [Port Adelaide by 40) Port Adelaide by 34
Essendon (84) defeated Geelong (50) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 34) Geelong by 24
Sydney (111) defeated Fremantle (52) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 59) Sydney by 27
St Kilda (72) lost to Collingwood (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 28) Collingwood by 20
Carlton (50) lost to Melbourne (159) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 109) Melbourne by 33
Brisbane Lions (129) defeated Hawthorn (73) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 56) Hawthorn by 14
West Coast (130) defeated Richmond (83) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 47) Richmond by 15

Round 10


Round 11


Round 12


Round 13


Round 14


Round 15


Round 16


Round 17


Round 18


Round 19


Round 20


Round 21


Round 22


Round 23

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

90%
10%

SEASON PREDICTOR


Recalculate

WLD%
1Richmond1750143.3
2West Coast1660124.6
3Sydney1480115.1
4Port Adelaide1480114.6
5Melbourne1390117.2
6Geelong1390116.6
7North Melbourne1390114.6
8Adelaide1390111.8
9Collingwood1390109.4
10Hawthorn12100106.4
11Greater Western Sydney11101106.7
12Fremantle1012090.6
13Western Bulldogs913081.7
14Essendon814087.6
15Brisbane Lions616084.3
16Gold Coast616070.7
17St Kilda516174.1
18Carlton418066.8

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 9

WLD%
1West Coast8 (8.00)10136.7
2Richmond7 (7.00)20133.1
3Melbourne6 (6.00)30127.0
4Adelaide6 (6.00)30125.4
5Sydney6 (6.00)30114.6
6Port Adelaide6 (6.00)30108.1
7North Melbourne5 (5.00)40118.0
8Geelong5 (5.00)40115.0
9Hawthorn5 (5.00)40107.2
10Collingwood5 (5.00)40105.6
11Greater Western Sydney4 (4.00)41102.6
12Fremantle4 (4.00)5087.5
13Western Bulldogs4 (4.00)5079.7
14Essendon3 (3.00)6089.0
15Gold Coast3 (3.00)6073.6
16St Kilda1 (1.00)7169.7
17Brisbane Lions1 (1.00)8082.4
18Carlton1 (1.00)8063.3

Round 10

CollingwoodCollingwood 85 - 70 Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 wins

RichmondRichmond 106 - 57 St Kilda St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.88 wins - 0.12 wins

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions 76 - 90 Sydney Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.37 wins - 0.63 wins

GeelongGeelong 101 - 53 Carlton Carlton
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.87 wins - 0.13 wins

Greater Western SydneyGreater Western Sydney 93 - 71 Essendon Essendon
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.70 wins - 0.30 wins

HawthornHawthorn 78 - 86 West Coast West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 wins

MelbourneMelbourne 92 - 82 Adelaide Adelaide
Traeger Park (NT)0.59 wins - 0.41 wins

FremantleFremantle 73 - 76 North Melbourne North Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.47 wins - 0.53 wins

WLD%
1West Coast9 (8.57)10133.9
2Richmond8 (7.88)20137.2
3Melbourne7 (6.59)30125.5
4Sydney7 (6.63)30115.0
5Adelaide6 (6.41)40121.1
6Geelong6 (5.87)40120.6
7North Melbourne6 (5.53)40116.5
8Port Adelaide6 (6.00)30108.1
9Collingwood6 (5.63)40106.9
10Greater Western Sydney5 (4.70)41105.2
11Hawthorn5 (5.43)50105.6
12Fremantle4 (4.47)6088.2
13Western Bulldogs4 (4.37)6080.0
14Essendon3 (3.30)7087.8
15Gold Coast3 (3.00)6073.6
16St Kilda1 (1.12)8167.9
17Brisbane Lions1 (1.37)9082.6
18Carlton1 (1.13)9062.3

Round 11

SydneySydney 104 - 55 Carlton Carlton
S.C.G. (NSW)0.88 wins - 0.12 wins

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs 77 - 93 Melbourne Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 wins

HawthornHawthorn 73 - 74 Port Adelaide Port Adelaide
York Park (TAS)0.50 wins - 0.50 wins

Gold CoastGold Coast 63 - 87 Geelong Geelong
Carrara (QLD)0.28 wins - 0.72 wins

EssendonEssendon 63 - 102 Richmond Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.18 wins - 0.82 wins

West CoastWest Coast 105 - 66 St Kilda St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.82 wins - 0.18 wins

North MelbourneNorth Melbourne 96 - 68 Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.75 wins - 0.25 wins

CollingwoodCollingwood 88 - 63 Fremantle Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.72 wins - 0.28 wins

AdelaideAdelaide 85 - 74 Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.61 wins - 0.39 wins

WLD%
1Richmond9 (8.70)20139.1
2West Coast9 (9.40)20136.0
3Sydney8 (7.51)30119.9
4Melbourne7 (7.24)40125.1
5Geelong7 (6.59)40122.1
6Adelaide7 (7.02)40120.6
7Port Adelaide7 (6.50)30107.4
8North Melbourne6 (6.28)50118.7
9Collingwood6 (6.36)50109.2
10Hawthorn6 (5.92)50105.1
11Greater Western Sydney5 (5.09)51103.3
12Fremantle5 (4.75)6086.7
13Western Bulldogs5 (4.71)6080.2
14Essendon3 (3.48)8085.2
15Gold Coast3 (3.28)7073.5
16Brisbane Lions2 (1.62)9081.5
17St Kilda1 (1.30)9167.4
18Carlton1 (1.25)10061.4

Round 12

Port AdelaidePort Adelaide 69 - 77 Richmond Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.42 wins - 0.58 wins

GeelongGeelong 81 - 67 North Melbourne North Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.63 wins - 0.37 wins

Greater Western SydneyGreater Western Sydney 99 - 54 Gold Coast Gold Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.85 wins - 0.15 wins

St KildaSt Kilda 72 - 88 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 wins

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions 87 - 88 Essendon Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.49 wins - 0.51 wins

FremantleFremantle 77 - 81 Adelaide Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.45 wins - 0.55 wins

MelbourneMelbourne 83 - 82 Collingwood Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 wins

WLD%
1Richmond9 (9.28)30137.0
2West Coast9 (9.40)20136.0
3Melbourne8 (7.75)40123.0
4Sydney8 (8.15)40120.0
5Adelaide8 (7.57)40119.4
6Geelong7 (7.22)50121.9
7North Melbourne7 (6.65)50115.4
8Collingwood7 (6.85)50108.4
9Port Adelaide7 (6.92)40105.7
10Greater Western Sydney6 (5.94)51108.1
11Hawthorn6 (5.92)50105.1
12Fremantle5 (5.20)7087.3
13Western Bulldogs5 (4.71)6080.2
14Essendon4 (3.99)8086.4
15Gold Coast3 (3.43)8071.7
16St Kilda2 (1.66)9168.5
17Brisbane Lions2 (2.11)10082.9
18Carlton1 (1.25)10061.4

Round 13

Port AdelaidePort Adelaide 90 - 60 Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.77 wins - 0.23 wins

SydneySydney 85 - 78 West Coast West Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)0.57 wins - 0.43 wins

CarltonCarlton 71 - 82 Fremantle Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 wins

Gold CoastGold Coast 76 - 79 St Kilda St Kilda
Carrara (QLD)0.47 wins - 0.53 wins

HawthornHawthorn 81 - 80 Adelaide Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 wins

GeelongGeelong 62 - 87 Richmond Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 wins

WLD%
1Richmond10 (10.01)30137.2
2West Coast10 (9.82)20131.8
3Sydney9 (8.73)40119.2
4Melbourne8 (7.75)40123.0
5Adelaide8 (8.06)50117.7
6Port Adelaide8 (7.69)40108.7
7Geelong7 (7.49)60117.2
8North Melbourne7 (6.65)50115.4
9Collingwood7 (6.85)50108.4
10Greater Western Sydney6 (5.94)51108.1
11Hawthorn6 (6.43)60104.8
12Fremantle6 (5.81)7089.1
13Western Bulldogs5 (4.94)7079.1
14Essendon4 (3.99)8086.4
15Gold Coast4 (3.90)8073.5
16St Kilda2 (2.18)10170.7
17Brisbane Lions2 (2.11)10082.9
18Carlton2 (1.64)10063.1

Round 14

West CoastWest Coast 102 - 72 Essendon Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.76 wins - 0.24 wins

Port AdelaidePort Adelaide 88 - 72 Melbourne Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.65 wins - 0.35 wins

HawthornHawthorn 94 - 58 Gold Coast Gold Coast
York Park (TAS)0.81 wins - 0.19 wins

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions 78 - 88 Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.39 wins - 0.61 wins

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs 70 - 84 North Melbourne North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 wins

CollingwoodCollingwood 96 - 60 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.81 wins - 0.19 wins

WLD%
1West Coast11 (10.59)20132.5
2Richmond10 (10.01)30137.2
3Sydney9 (8.73)40119.2
4Melbourne8 (8.10)50119.7
5Adelaide8 (8.06)50117.7
6Collingwood8 (7.66)50111.5
7Port Adelaide8 (8.34)50109.6
8Greater Western Sydney7 (6.55)51108.5
9Geelong7 (7.49)60117.2
10North Melbourne7 (7.28)60115.7
11Hawthorn7 (7.24)60108.0
12Fremantle6 (5.81)7089.1
13Western Bulldogs5 (5.31)8079.4
14Essendon4 (4.23)9085.1
15Gold Coast4 (4.10)9072.6
16Brisbane Lions3 (2.51)10083.2
17St Kilda2 (2.18)10170.7
18Carlton2 (1.84)11063.0

Round 15

RichmondRichmond 91 - 62 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 wins

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs 69 - 83 Geelong Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 wins

CarltonCarlton 61 - 91 Port Adelaide Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.24 wins - 0.76 wins

AdelaideAdelaide 87 - 83 West Coast West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.54 wins - 0.46 wins

Gold CoastGold Coast 65 - 87 Collingwood Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)0.29 wins - 0.71 wins

Greater Western SydneyGreater Western Sydney 86 - 68 Hawthorn Hawthorn
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.67 wins - 0.33 wins

MelbourneMelbourne 100 - 74 St Kilda St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 wins

EssendonEssendon 76 - 86 North Melbourne North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 wins

FremantleFremantle 90 - 72 Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.67 wins - 0.33 wins

WLD%
1Richmond11 (10.76)30137.8
2West Coast11 (11.04)30129.5
3Melbourne9 (8.83)50120.7
4Adelaide9 (8.60)50116.7
5Sydney9 (8.97)50114.8
6Port Adelaide9 (9.10)50111.9
7Geelong8 (8.13)60117.4
8North Melbourne8 (7.88)60115.6
9Collingwood8 (8.37)60112.8
10Hawthorn8 (7.57)60105.8
11Greater Western Sydney7 (7.21)61109.7
12Fremantle6 (6.48)8091.3
13Western Bulldogs6 (5.67)8079.6
14Essendon5 (4.62)9085.3
15Gold Coast4 (4.39)10072.7
16Brisbane Lions3 (2.84)11083.0
17St Kilda2 (2.45)11171.0
18Carlton2 (2.07)12063.3

Round 16

SydneySydney 81 - 69 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.62 wins - 0.38 wins

RichmondRichmond 97 - 63 Adelaide Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.79 wins - 0.21 wins

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions 96 - 70 Carlton Carlton
Gabba (QLD)0.73 wins - 0.27 wins

Port AdelaidePort Adelaide 94 - 59 St Kilda St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.80 wins - 0.20 wins

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs 75 - 81 Hawthorn Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 wins

MelbourneMelbourne 96 - 70 Fremantle Fremantle
Marrara Oval (NT)0.73 wins - 0.27 wins

North MelbourneNorth Melbourne 96 - 55 Gold Coast Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.84 wins - 0.16 wins

EssendonEssendon 75 - 88 Collingwood Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 wins

West CoastWest Coast 91 - 72 Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.68 wins - 0.32 wins

WLD%
1Richmond12 (11.56)30138.8
2West Coast12 (11.72)30129.3
3Melbourne10 (9.57)50121.6
4Sydney10 (9.58)50114.9
5Port Adelaide10 (9.90)50114.4
6North Melbourne9 (8.72)60118.7
7Geelong9 (8.51)60115.0
8Collingwood9 (8.99)60113.1
9Adelaide9 (8.81)60112.4
10Greater Western Sydney8 (7.54)61107.2
11Hawthorn8 (8.14)70106.0
12Fremantle7 (6.74)8089.9
13Western Bulldogs6 (6.11)9080.4
14Essendon5 (5.00)10085.3
15Gold Coast5 (4.55)10071.6
16Brisbane Lions4 (3.57)11085.7
17St Kilda3 (2.65)11170.4
18Carlton2 (2.34)13063.9

Round 17

AdelaideAdelaide 82 - 74 Geelong Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 wins

St KildaSt Kilda 88 - 71 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 wins

HawthornHawthorn 95 - 71 Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions
York Park (TAS)0.72 wins - 0.28 wins

MelbourneMelbourne 95 - 75 Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 wins

Gold CoastGold Coast 74 - 87 Essendon Essendon
Carrara (QLD)0.37 wins - 0.63 wins

Greater Western SydneyGreater Western Sydney 70 - 84 Richmond Richmond
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.37 wins - 0.63 wins

CollingwoodCollingwood 82 - 80 West Coast West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 wins

North MelbourneNorth Melbourne 78 - 74 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 wins

FremantleFremantle 68 - 77 Port Adelaide Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.41 wins - 0.59 wins

WLD%
1Richmond12 (12.19)40137.5
2West Coast12 (12.19)40127.1
3Melbourne10 (10.25)60121.9
4Port Adelaide10 (10.49)60114.4
5Sydney10 (10.04)60113.6
6Collingwood10 (9.52)60112.5
7North Melbourne9 (9.27)70117.8
8Geelong9 (8.93)70113.2
9Adelaide9 (9.39)70112.3
10Hawthorn9 (8.86)70107.6
11Greater Western Sydney8 (7.91)71105.6
12Fremantle7 (7.15)9089.8
13Essendon6 (5.63)10087.0
14Western Bulldogs6 (6.42)10080.3
15Gold Coast5 (4.91)11072.3
16Brisbane Lions4 (3.85)12085.0
17St Kilda3 (3.30)12172.9
18Carlton3 (2.68)13064.8

Round 18

St KildaSt Kilda 59 - 104 Richmond Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.14 wins - 0.86 wins

CollingwoodCollingwood 77 - 73 North Melbourne North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 wins

SydneySydney 100 - 53 Gold Coast Gold Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)0.87 wins - 0.13 wins

EssendonEssendon 87 - 74 Fremantle Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 wins

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions 80 - 92 Adelaide Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.38 wins - 0.62 wins

GeelongGeelong 87 - 76 Melbourne Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.61 wins - 0.39 wins

CarltonCarlton 65 - 92 Hawthorn Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.25 wins - 0.75 wins

West CoastWest Coast 100 - 67 Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.79 wins - 0.21 wins

Port AdelaidePort Adelaide 81 - 65 Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.65 wins - 0.35 wins

WLD%
1Richmond13 (13.05)40139.5
2West Coast13 (12.99)40128.3
3Melbourne11 (10.64)60119.7
4Sydney11 (10.92)60116.8
5Port Adelaide11 (11.14)60114.9
6North Melbourne10 (9.72)70116.3
7Geelong10 (9.54)70113.3
8Adelaide10 (10.01)70112.5
9Collingwood10 (10.06)70112.1
10Hawthorn10 (9.61)70109.2
11Greater Western Sydney8 (8.26)81104.1
12Fremantle8 (7.52)9089.5
13Western Bulldogs7 (6.63)10079.4
14Essendon6 (6.26)11088.5
15Gold Coast5 (5.04)12071.1
16Brisbane Lions4 (4.23)13085.1
17St Kilda3 (3.44)13171.9
18Carlton3 (2.94)14065.1

Round 19

EssendonEssendon 79 - 85 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 wins

RichmondRichmond 88 - 64 Collingwood Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.72 wins - 0.28 wins

GeelongGeelong 100 - 63 Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.81 wins - 0.19 wins

Greater Western SydneyGreater Western Sydney 96 - 63 St Kilda St Kilda
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.78 wins - 0.22 wins

Gold CoastGold Coast 81 - 69 Carlton Carlton
Carrara (QLD)0.61 wins - 0.39 wins

AdelaideAdelaide 92 - 82 Melbourne Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.60 wins - 0.40 wins

North MelbourneNorth Melbourne 82 - 79 West Coast West Coast
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.53 wins - 0.47 wins

Western BulldogsWestern Bulldogs 69 - 80 Port Adelaide Port Adelaide
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 wins

FremantleFremantle 77 - 75 Hawthorn Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.53 wins - 0.47 wins

WLD%
1Richmond14 (13.77)40139.4
2West Coast13 (13.46)50126.4
3Port Adelaide12 (11.75)60114.9
4Melbourne11 (11.04)70117.8
5Sydney11 (11.49)70116.3
6Adelaide11 (10.61)70112.5
7North Melbourne10 (10.25)80115.6
8Geelong10 (10.35)80115.5
9Collingwood10 (10.34)80109.6
10Hawthorn10 (10.08)80108.6
11Greater Western Sydney9 (9.04)81106.3
12Fremantle8 (8.05)10090.2
13Essendon7 (6.69)11088.7
14Western Bulldogs7 (7.02)11079.8
15Gold Coast6 (5.65)12073.0
16St Kilda4 (3.66)13171.5
17Brisbane Lions4 (4.42)14083.8
18Carlton3 (3.32)15066.0

Round 20

RichmondRichmond 87 - 62 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 wins

HawthornHawthorn 84 - 80 Essendon Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 wins

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions 76 - 87 North Melbourne North Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.39 wins - 0.61 wins

AdelaideAdelaide 74 - 78 Port Adelaide Port Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.45 wins - 0.55 wins

St KildaSt Kilda 78 - 83 Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 wins

SydneySydney 83 - 69 Collingwood Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)0.63 wins - 0.37 wins

CarltonCarlton 65 - 92 Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.26 wins - 0.74 wins

MelbourneMelbourne 107 - 60 Gold Coast Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.88 wins - 0.12 wins

West CoastWest Coast 93 - 70 Fremantle Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.71 wins - 0.29 wins

WLD%
1Richmond14 (14.50)50139.4
2West Coast14 (14.17)50126.8
3Melbourne12 (11.92)70120.2
4Sydney12 (12.11)70116.4
5Port Adelaide12 (12.30)70114.5
6North Melbourne11 (10.86)80115.5
7Geelong11 (10.63)80112.7
8Adelaide11 (11.06)80111.5
9Hawthorn11 (10.62)80108.4
10Collingwood11 (10.71)80108.2
11Greater Western Sydney10 (9.78)81107.9
12Fremantle8 (8.34)11089.3
13Western Bulldogs8 (7.58)11081.0
14Essendon7 (7.15)12089.0
15Gold Coast6 (5.78)13072.0
16Brisbane Lions5 (4.81)14084.0
17St Kilda4 (4.10)14172.6
18Carlton4 (3.58)15066.3

Round 21

EssendonEssendon 89 - 80 St Kilda St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 wins

HawthornHawthorn 72 - 79 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 wins

Gold CoastGold Coast 56 - 103 Richmond Richmond
Carrara (QLD)0.13 wins - 0.87 wins

Port AdelaidePort Adelaide 82 - 73 West Coast West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.59 wins - 0.41 wins

CollingwoodCollingwood 97 - 68 Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 wins

Greater Western SydneyGreater Western Sydney 85 - 74 Adelaide Adelaide
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.61 wins - 0.39 wins

North MelbourneNorth Melbourne 84 - 70 Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 wins

MelbourneMelbourne 87 - 81 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 wins

FremantleFremantle 92 - 61 Carlton Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.77 wins - 0.23 wins

WLD%
1Richmond15 (15.37)50141.2
2West Coast15 (14.58)50124.7
3Sydney13 (12.56)70115.1
4Port Adelaide13 (12.89)70114.4
5Melbourne12 (12.48)80119.5
6North Melbourne11 (11.49)90115.7
7Geelong11 (11.19)90112.6
8Adelaide11 (11.45)90110.2
9Collingwood11 (11.47)90109.7
10Hawthorn11 (11.06)90107.5
11Greater Western Sydney10 (10.39)91108.2
12Fremantle9 (9.11)11091.6
13Essendon8 (7.75)12090.0
14Western Bulldogs8 (7.94)12081.1
15Gold Coast6 (5.91)14071.0
16St Kilda5 (4.51)14173.4
17Brisbane Lions5 (5.05)15083.2
18Carlton4 (3.81)16066.3

Round 22

RichmondRichmond 102 - 63 Essendon Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.82 wins - 0.18 wins

CollingwoodCollingwood 75 - 70 Port Adelaide Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 wins

GeelongGeelong 89 - 60 Fremantle Fremantle
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.76 wins - 0.24 wins

Greater Western SydneyGreater Western Sydney 76 - 77 Sydney Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.49 wins - 0.51 wins

Gold CoastGold Coast 75 - 86 Brisbane Lions Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.39 wins - 0.61 wins

St KildaSt Kilda 74 - 86 Hawthorn Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 wins

CarltonCarlton 68 - 89 Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.30 wins - 0.70 wins

West CoastWest Coast 98 - 80 Melbourne Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.67 wins - 0.33 wins

AdelaideAdelaide 85 - 72 North Melbourne North Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 wins

WLD%
1Richmond16 (16.19)50142.1
2West Coast15 (15.24)60124.6
3Melbourne13 (12.81)80117.4
4Sydney13 (13.06)80114.4
5Port Adelaide13 (13.35)80113.4
6Geelong12 (11.95)90114.0
7North Melbourne12 (11.87)90114.0
8Adelaide12 (12.07)90110.5
9Collingwood12 (12.02)90109.6
10Hawthorn12 (11.67)90107.9
11Greater Western Sydney11 (10.88)91107.8
12Fremantle9 (9.35)12090.3
13Western Bulldogs9 (8.64)12083.0
14Essendon8 (7.92)13088.5
15Brisbane Lions6 (5.66)15084.5
16Gold Coast6 (6.29)15071.7
17St Kilda5 (4.89)15173.9
18Carlton4 (4.12)17066.7

Round 23

CarltonCarlton 67 - 96 Adelaide Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.24 wins - 0.76 wins

GeelongGeelong 99 - 51 Gold Coast Gold Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.87 wins - 0.13 wins

RichmondRichmond 101 - 58 Western Bulldogs Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.85 wins - 0.15 wins

SydneySydney 87 - 67 Hawthorn Hawthorn
S.C.G. (NSW)0.69 wins - 0.31 wins

Brisbane LionsBrisbane Lions 79 - 98 West Coast West Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.32 wins - 0.68 wins

St KildaSt Kilda 69 - 88 North Melbourne North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.32 wins - 0.68 wins

MelbourneMelbourne 89 - 78 Greater Western Sydney Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 wins

Port AdelaidePort Adelaide 92 - 64 Essendon Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.75 wins - 0.25 wins

FremantleFremantle 74 - 77 Collingwood Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.47 wins - 0.53 wins

WLD%
1Richmond17 (17.04)50143.3
2West Coast16 (15.92)60124.6
3Sydney14 (13.75)80115.1
4Port Adelaide14 (14.09)80114.6
5Melbourne13 (13.42)90117.2
6Geelong13 (12.82)90116.6
7North Melbourne13 (12.55)90114.6
8Adelaide13 (12.83)90111.8
9Collingwood13 (12.55)90109.4
10Hawthorn12 (11.98)100106.4
11Greater Western Sydney11 (11.28)101106.7
12Fremantle10 (9.82)12090.6
13Western Bulldogs9 (8.79)13081.7
14Essendon8 (8.18)14087.6
15Brisbane Lions6 (5.98)16084.3
16Gold Coast6 (6.42)16070.7
17St Kilda5 (5.22)16174.1
18Carlton4 (4.36)18066.8

FINALS: WEEK 1

RichmondRichmond 87 - 59 Port Adelaide Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

West CoastWest Coast 89 - 74 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)

MelbourneMelbourne 91 - 82 Adelaide Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

GeelongGeelong 75 - 72 North Melbourne North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Port AdelaidePort Adelaide 87 - 72 Melbourne Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)

SydneySydney 80 - 69 Geelong Geelong
Stadium Australia (NSW)

FINALS: WEEK 3

RichmondRichmond 92 - 62 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

West CoastWest Coast 84 - 72 Port Adelaide Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)

2018 AFL GRAND FINAL

RichmondRichmond 80 - 62 West Coast West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Regular Tipping by SQUIGGLE2
Grand Final Tip by OFFDEF4G-95:79

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Premier Predictor

Flag height indicates a team's ability to win the premiership. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

Flagpole Height
1Richmond86.0
2Adelaide81.0
3West Coast78.7
4Sydney74.7
5Geelong72.3
6Port Adelaide70.7
7Melbourne69.9
8Greater Western Sydney66.6
9Collingwood66.0
10North Melbourne65.1
11Hawthorn64.9
12Fremantle49.0
13Western Bulldogs42.4
14Essendon42.3
15Gold Coast33.5
16St Kilda32.3
17Brisbane Lions18.4
18Carlton16.3

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

AttackDefenceCombined
1Richmond62.570.966.7
2West Coast59.558.458.9
3Port Adelaide53.164.558.8
4Geelong53.362.157.7
5Sydney54.660.457.5
6Melbourne59.155.157.1
7Collingwood53.460.256.8
8Adelaide55.957.456.6
9Greater Western Sydney53.659.456.5
10North Melbourne52.860.156.4
11Hawthorn51.756.854.3
12Essendon53.452.252.8
13Western Bulldogs49.353.351.3
14Fremantle47.854.651.2
15St Kilda48.750.649.7
16Brisbane Lions50.248.449.3
17Gold Coast41.948.945.4
18Carlton42.847.445.1

EDIT SQUIGGLE

Oooh past

Oooh future

TODO:

(1) Allow for updating of FLAGPOLE

(2) Allow for updating of TOWER

(3) Allow for updating of TIPS

(4) Allow for modification of future games

(5) Allow for modification of past games

HOME TEAM:

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