Squiggle 2019

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011
Squiggle v1	61.4%	69.1%	70.9%	72.0%	72.5%	77.8%	77.6%
Squiggle 2.0*	64.7%	74.9%	73.8%	72.0%	73.0%	73.4%	77.0%
Squiggle 4*	65.7%	73.4%	73.8%	73.4%	74.4%	73.9%	77.6%

* Squiggle 2.0 and Squiggle 4 numbers before 2018 are "retro-dictions"—they were made after the result. This shows how well the model fits historical data, rather than how reliable its predictions have been in practice.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	14	8	128.9
2	Greater Western Sydney	14	8	127.6
3	Melbourne	14	8	126.6
4	West Coast	14	8	122.6
5	Geelong	13	9	118.8
6	Collingwood	13	9	116.8
7	Essendon	13	9	113.7
8	Adelaide	13	9	112.1
9	Hawthorn	12	10	107.1
10	Port Adelaide	12	10	105.6
11	North Melbourne	11	11	98.2
12	Brisbane Lions	10	12	92.7
13	St Kilda	10	12	92.6
14	Western Bulldogs	9	13	87.2
15	Sydney	9	13	85.2
16	Fremantle	8	14	78.9
17	Carlton	6	16	65.8
18	Gold Coast	4	18	59.6

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 1

Adelaide 91 - 77 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.580621 - 0.419379RealScores: 90.559994 - 77.284439

Brisbane Lions 77 - 91 West Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.413206 - 0.586794RealScores: 77.313482 - 91.348647

Carlton Carlton 53 - 104 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.18 wins - 0.82 winsRealProbs: 0.177281 - 0.822719RealScores: 52.587605 - 103.814115

Collingwood 78 - 72 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.516874 - 0.483126RealScores: 77.868516 - 72.080101

Fremantle 76 - 82 North Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.482276 - 0.517724RealScores: 76.207547 - 82.091853

Greater Western Sydney 85 - 68 Essendon
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.614242 - 0.385758RealScores: 85.425983 - 67.928769

Melbourne 88 - 62 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.676886 - 0.323114RealScores: 88.363711 - 62.362198

St Kilda 105 - 60 Gold Coast
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.791779 - 0.208221RealScores: 104.935969 - 60.032538

Western Bulldogs 79 - 71 Sydney Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.536692 - 0.463308RealScores: 78.783298 - 70.732478

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	1 (0.82)	0	197.4
2	St Kilda	1 (0.79)	0	174.8
3	Melbourne	1 (0.68)	0	141.7
4	Greater Western Sydney	1 (0.61)	0	125.8
5	West Coast	1 (0.59)	0	118.2
6	Adelaide	1 (0.58)	0	117.2
7	Western Bulldogs	1 (0.54)	0	111.4
8	Collingwood	1 (0.52)	0	108.0
9	North Melbourne	1 (0.52)	0	107.7
10	Fremantle	0 (0.48)	1	92.8
11	Geelong	0 (0.48)	1	92.6
12	Sydney	0 (0.46)	1	89.8
13	Hawthorn	0 (0.42)	1	85.3
14	Brisbane Lions	0 (0.41)	1	84.6
15	Essendon	0 (0.39)	1	79.5
16	Port Adelaide	0 (0.32)	1	70.6
17	Gold Coast	0 (0.21)	1	57.2
18	Carlton	0 (0.18)	1	50.7

Round 2

Essendon 97 - 79 St Kilda
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.636046 - 0.363954RealScores: 97.281326 - 78.794871

Geelong Geelong 82 - 79 Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 81.705608 - 79.463118

Gold Coast 71 - 81 Fremantle
Carrara (QLD)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.441534 - 0.558466RealScores: 71.356868 - 80.501297

Hawthorn 86 - 68 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.629003 - 0.370997RealScores: 85.502387 - 67.907687

North Melbourne 94 - 77 Brisbane Lions
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.623135 - 0.376865RealScores: 94.276111 - 77.417095

Port Adelaide 91 - 49 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.795391 - 0.204609RealScores: 91.218442 - 48.996342

Richmond 78 - 73 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.527295 - 0.472705RealScores: 78.391978 - 72.741346

Sydney Sydney 79 - 87 Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.454127 - 0.545873RealScores: 79.014023 - 86.731028

West Coast 77 - 66 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.579067 - 0.420933RealScores: 77.449266 - 65.920161

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	1 (1.35)	1	145.4
2	West Coast	1 (1.17)	1	117.8
3	St Kilda	1 (1.16)	1	116.8
4	Melbourne	1 (1.18)	1	116.5
5	North Melbourne	1 (1.14)	1	114.8
6	Adelaide	1 (1.13)	1	113.4
7	Port Adelaide	1 (1.12)	1	111.8
8	Greater Western Sydney	1 (1.04)	1	104.1
9	Hawthorn	1 (1.05)	1	102.7
10	Fremantle	1 (1.04)	1	102.1
11	Essendon	1 (1.02)	1	100.6
12	Collingwood	1 (0.99)	1	100.1
13	Geelong	1 (0.98)	1	97.7
14	Western Bulldogs	1 (0.91)	1	93.9
15	Sydney	1 (0.92)	1	90.5
16	Brisbane Lions	1 (0.79)	1	83.4
17	Gold Coast	1 (0.65)	1	70.9
18	Carlton	0 (0.38)	2	52.1

Round 3

Adelaide 86 - 80 Geelong Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.533113 - 0.466887RealScores: 86.032011 - 80.451447

Brisbane Lions 77 - 76 Port Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 77.494692 - 75.557976

Carlton Carlton 67 - 79 Sydney Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.410356 - 0.589644RealScores: 67.392083 - 79.316657

Collingwood 80 - 72 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.551617 - 0.448383RealScores: 79.932452 - 72.323259

Fremantle 81 - 82 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 81.291414 - 82.429858

Greater Western Sydney 76 - 67 Richmond
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.564763 - 0.435237RealScores: 75.662681 - 66.584702

Hawthorn 83 - 74 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.559917 - 0.440083RealScores: 82.688217 - 74.154410

Melbourne 93 - 82 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.580770 - 0.419230RealScores: 92.947751 - 82.048806

Western Bulldogs 96 - 58 Gold Coast
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.779325 - 0.220675RealScores: 95.740285 - 57.980484

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	2 (1.79)	1	123.8
2	Melbourne	2 (1.76)	1	115.3
3	Western Bulldogs	2 (1.69)	1	113.2
4	St Kilda	2 (1.66)	1	111.5
5	Adelaide	2 (1.66)	1	111.2
6	West Coast	2 (1.61)	1	108.0
7	Greater Western Sydney	2 (1.60)	1	107.1
8	Port Adelaide	2 (1.62)	1	106.6
9	North Melbourne	2 (1.58)	1	106.0
10	Hawthorn	2 (1.61)	1	105.5
11	Collingwood	2 (1.54)	1	103.5
12	Fremantle	2 (1.54)	1	100.9
13	Sydney	2 (1.51)	1	98.3
14	Geelong	1 (1.45)	2	96.2
15	Essendon	1 (1.44)	2	96.1
16	Brisbane Lions	1 (1.29)	2	88.9
17	Gold Coast	1 (0.87)	2	67.3
18	Carlton	1 (0.79)	2	61.6

Round 4

Collingwood 91 - 64 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.713278 - 0.286722RealScores: 90.616904 - 63.742199

Essendon 105 - 75 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.737837 - 0.262163RealScores: 104.897497 - 74.534268

Geelong Geelong 74 - 67 Greater Western Sydney
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.552072 - 0.447928RealScores: 74.214649 - 67.043853

Gold Coast 75 - 73 Carlton Carlton
Carrara (QLD)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.506107 - 0.493893RealScores: 74.777754 - 72.500917

North Melbourne 88 - 87 Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 87.165496 - 86.850401

Port Adelaide 68 - 73 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.470047 - 0.529953RealScores: 67.757482 - 72.541881

St Kilda 76 - 88 Hawthorn
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.403778 - 0.596222RealScores: 75.541721 - 87.669126

Sydney Sydney 72 - 91 Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.344503 - 0.655497RealScores: 71.594965 - 90.853363

West Coast 95 - 62 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.756656 - 0.243344RealScores: 94.773552 - 61.614377

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	2 (2.32)	2	119.6
2	Melbourne	2 (2.41)	2	118.1
3	West Coast	2 (2.37)	2	117.9
4	Collingwood	2 (2.25)	2	112.1
5	Adelaide	2 (2.16)	2	108.1
6	Hawthorn	2 (2.20)	2	108.1
7	Essendon	2 (2.18)	2	106.2
8	St Kilda	2 (2.06)	2	104.7
9	North Melbourne	2 (2.08)	2	104.5
10	Port Adelaide	2 (2.09)	2	103.3
11	Greater Western Sydney	2 (2.05)	2	102.8
12	Western Bulldogs	2 (1.97)	2	100.4
13	Geelong	2 (2.00)	2	99.4
14	Sydney	2 (1.85)	2	92.9
15	Fremantle	2 (1.78)	2	90.6
16	Brisbane Lions	2 (1.55)	2	83.8
17	Gold Coast	1 (1.38)	3	74.7
18	Carlton	1 (1.29)	3	69.2

Round 5

Adelaide 119 - 55 Gold Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.918690 - 0.081310RealScores: 118.876904 - 54.954407

Brisbane Lions 77 - 90 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.399817 - 0.600183RealScores: 77.492477 - 89.675369

Greater Western Sydney 95 - 52 Fremantle
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.822416 - 0.177584RealScores: 94.746926 - 51.648486

Hawthorn 74 - 77 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.484906 - 0.515094RealScores: 73.597145 - 76.511657

Melbourne 104 - 73 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.744354 - 0.255646RealScores: 103.812473 - 73.158848

North Melbourne 79 - 91 Essendon
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.401385 - 0.598615RealScores: 78.505032 - 90.508328

Richmond 94 - 57 Sydney Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.785947 - 0.214053RealScores: 94.111701 - 57.133140

West Coast 83 - 59 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.695889 - 0.304111RealScores: 82.501604 - 58.558444

Western Bulldogs 86 - 65 Carlton Carlton
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.669569 - 0.330431RealScores: 85.790324 - 65.254720

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	3 (3.10)	2	127.5
2	Adelaide	3 (3.08)	2	123.8
3	Melbourne	3 (3.16)	2	122.8
4	West Coast	3 (3.07)	2	121.9
5	Greater Western Sydney	3 (2.87)	2	115.1
6	Collingwood	3 (2.85)	2	112.9
7	Essendon	3 (2.78)	2	107.9
8	Western Bulldogs	3 (2.64)	2	105.9
9	Hawthorn	3 (2.69)	2	105.7
10	Geelong	3 (2.52)	2	100.2
11	North Melbourne	2 (2.48)	3	100.6
12	St Kilda	2 (2.32)	3	96.5
13	Port Adelaide	2 (2.39)	3	96.1
14	Sydney	2 (2.07)	3	85.6
15	Brisbane Lions	2 (1.95)	3	84.3
16	Fremantle	2 (1.96)	3	82.6
17	Carlton	2 (1.62)	3	70.5
18	Gold Coast	1 (1.46)	4	67.5

Round 6

Essendon 79 - 84 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.459771 - 0.540229RealScores: 78.722188 - 84.043684

Fremantle 79 - 75 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.529264 - 0.470736RealScores: 78.684433 - 74.515329

Geelong Geelong 80 - 71 West Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.579991 - 0.420009RealScores: 80.340006 - 70.716451

Gold Coast 68 - 99 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.24 wins - 0.76 winsRealProbs: 0.244604 - 0.755396RealScores: 67.708207 - 99.467364

Hawthorn 99 - 54 Carlton Carlton
York Park (TAS)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.838792 - 0.161208RealScores: 99.083606 - 53.748950

Port Adelaide 79 - 65 North Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.617731 - 0.382269RealScores: 79.256308 - 65.351247

Richmond 82 - 80 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500278 - 0.499722RealScores: 81.664467 - 80.477250

St Kilda 87 - 94 Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.445205 - 0.554795RealScores: 87.121212 - 93.995678

Sydney Sydney 59 - 83 Greater Western Sydney
S.C.G. (NSW)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.303064 - 0.696936RealScores: 59.157931 - 82.824318

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	4 (3.60)	2	122.3
2	Adelaide	4 (3.63)	2	120.8
3	Greater Western Sydney	4 (3.57)	2	118.8
4	Melbourne	4 (3.66)	2	118.4
5	Hawthorn	4 (3.53)	2	115.4
6	West Coast	3 (3.49)	3	115.4
7	Collingwood	3 (3.39)	3	111.8
8	Essendon	3 (3.24)	3	105.5
9	Western Bulldogs	3 (3.11)	3	103.9
10	Geelong	3 (3.10)	3	102.3
11	Port Adelaide	3 (3.01)	3	99.9
12	North Melbourne	3 (2.86)	3	97.7
13	St Kilda	3 (2.76)	3	95.8
14	Brisbane Lions	3 (2.71)	3	92.4
15	Fremantle	2 (2.49)	4	86.0
16	Sydney	2 (2.37)	4	83.3
17	Gold Coast	2 (1.70)	4	67.6
18	Carlton	2 (1.78)	4	67.5

Round 7

Adelaide 105 - 66 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.803356 - 0.196644RealScores: 104.617846 - 65.901533

Brisbane Lions 89 - 73 Sydney Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.638620 - 0.361380RealScores: 89.183104 - 73.066124

Carlton Carlton 63 - 94 North Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.248222 - 0.751778RealScores: 63.077933 - 93.921345

Collingwood 80 - 60 Port Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.670015 - 0.329985RealScores: 79.927772 - 59.996552

Geelong Geelong 80 - 81 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 80.207041 - 81.203725

Greater Western Sydney 95 - 60 St Kilda
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.782503 - 0.217497RealScores: 95.100185 - 59.682362

Melbourne 89 - 74 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.624355 - 0.375645RealScores: 88.706004 - 74.266074

West Coast 114 - 47 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.94 wins - 0.06 winsRealProbs: 0.937783 - 0.062217RealScores: 113.892117 - 46.775472

Western Bulldogs 63 - 93 Richmond
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.252479 - 0.747521RealScores: 62.510376 - 92.743513

		W	L	%
1	West Coast	4 (4.42)	3	128.2
2	Richmond	4 (4.35)	3	125.8
3	Adelaide	4 (4.44)	3	125.5
4	Greater Western Sydney	4 (4.35)	3	124.1
5	Melbourne	4 (4.28)	3	118.6
6	Collingwood	4 (4.06)	3	114.3
7	Hawthorn	4 (3.90)	3	110.0
8	Essendon	4 (3.74)	3	104.9
9	North Melbourne	4 (3.62)	3	103.5
10	Geelong	4 (3.60)	3	101.8
11	Western Bulldogs	3 (3.37)	4	97.7
12	Brisbane Lions	3 (3.35)	4	96.0
13	Port Adelaide	3 (3.34)	4	96.0
14	St Kilda	3 (2.98)	4	90.7
15	Sydney	3 (2.73)	4	83.1
16	Fremantle	3 (2.69)	4	82.0
17	Carlton	2 (2.03)	5	67.5
18	Gold Coast	2 (1.76)	5	63.2

Round 8

Carlton Carlton 55 - 100 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.15 wins - 0.85 winsRealProbs: 0.153355 - 0.846645RealScores: 54.506730 - 100.255536

Fremantle 66 - 90 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.290871 - 0.709129RealScores: 65.677755 - 90.381916

Gold Coast 61 - 112 Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.13 wins - 0.87 winsRealProbs: 0.127147 - 0.872853RealScores: 60.987856 - 111.754762

Hawthorn 71 - 72 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 71.261987 - 71.480192

North Melbourne 73 - 83 Geelong Geelong
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.420509 - 0.579491RealScores: 73.298147 - 82.519548

Port Adelaide 75 - 80 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.459130 - 0.540870RealScores: 74.911477 - 80.006735

St Kilda 75 - 90 West Coast
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.372785 - 0.627215RealScores: 75.409668 - 90.004256

Sydney Sydney 75 - 87 Essendon
S.C.G. (NSW)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.397189 - 0.602811RealScores: 74.735581 - 86.541739

Western Bulldogs 86 - 80 Brisbane Lions
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.550028 - 0.449972RealScores: 86.441759 - 80.384451

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	5 (5.06)	3	127.3
2	West Coast	5 (5.05)	3	127.0
3	Melbourne	5 (5.15)	3	125.3
4	Adelaide	5 (4.98)	3	123.2
5	Collingwood	5 (4.91)	3	121.1
6	Greater Western Sydney	5 (4.85)	3	120.9
7	Hawthorn	4 (4.40)	4	108.8
8	Essendon	4 (4.34)	4	106.2
9	Geelong	4 (4.18)	4	103.1
10	North Melbourne	4 (4.04)	4	101.6
11	Western Bulldogs	4 (3.92)	4	99.0
12	Port Adelaide	4 (3.80)	4	95.7
13	Brisbane Lions	4 (3.80)	4	95.7
14	St Kilda	3 (3.35)	5	89.8
15	Sydney	3 (3.13)	5	83.5
16	Fremantle	3 (2.98)	5	80.8
17	Carlton	2 (2.18)	6	65.7
18	Gold Coast	2 (1.89)	6	62.0

Round 9

Brisbane Lions 89 - 95 Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.447597 - 0.552403RealScores: 89.136874 - 95.357001

Collingwood 94 - 70 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.704647 - 0.295353RealScores: 93.956776 - 70.024169

Essendon 103 - 63 Fremantle
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.814496 - 0.185504RealScores: 102.962842 - 63.099586

Geelong Geelong 93 - 60 Western Bulldogs
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.767860 - 0.232140RealScores: 92.716867 - 60.077749

Greater Western Sydney 101 - 45 Carlton Carlton
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.900797 - 0.099203RealScores: 101.366747 - 45.102295

North Melbourne 88 - 66 Sydney Sydney
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.693763 - 0.306237RealScores: 88.318565 - 65.786427

Port Adelaide 97 - 47 Gold Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.87 wins - 0.13 winsRealProbs: 0.872289 - 0.127711RealScores: 96.806289 - 46.559562

Richmond 83 - 69 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.625702 - 0.374298RealScores: 82.989750 - 68.699211

West Coast 86 - 78 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.568629 - 0.431371RealScores: 85.723325 - 77.777592

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	6 (5.75)	3	129.1
2	Richmond	6 (5.68)	3	126.5
3	West Coast	6 (5.62)	3	124.9
4	Collingwood	6 (5.62)	3	122.6
5	Adelaide	6 (5.53)	3	121.1
6	Melbourne	6 (5.59)	3	120.9
7	Essendon	5 (5.15)	4	111.2
8	Geelong	5 (4.94)	4	107.7
9	Hawthorn	5 (4.78)	4	105.6
10	North Melbourne	5 (4.73)	4	104.7
11	Port Adelaide	5 (4.67)	4	103.8
12	Brisbane Lions	4 (4.24)	5	95.4
13	Western Bulldogs	4 (4.15)	5	94.5
14	St Kilda	4 (3.65)	5	88.0
15	Sydney	3 (3.43)	6	82.5
16	Fremantle	3 (3.16)	6	78.3
17	Carlton	2 (2.28)	7	63.1
18	Gold Coast	2 (2.02)	7	60.5

Round 10

Adelaide 85 - 84 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.508054 - 0.491946RealScores: 85.429797 - 83.808977

Fremantle 85 - 82 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.522043 - 0.477957RealScores: 84.675813 - 81.644376

Gold Coast 59 - 98 Geelong Geelong
Carrara (QLD)0.19 wins - 0.81 winsRealProbs: 0.191426 - 0.808574RealScores: 59.110961 - 97.788009

Hawthorn 77 - 63 Port Adelaide
York Park (TAS)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.618337 - 0.381663RealScores: 76.500123 - 63.138551

Melbourne 82 - 70 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.606189 - 0.393811RealScores: 82.422793 - 70.431263

Richmond 87 - 76 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.597877 - 0.402123RealScores: 86.967842 - 75.901479

St Kilda 94 - 68 Carlton Carlton
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.725215 - 0.274785RealScores: 94.165120 - 67.660249

Sydney Sydney 69 - 82 Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.386068 - 0.613932RealScores: 68.730048 - 81.592289

Western Bulldogs 74 - 84 North Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.410545 - 0.589455RealScores: 74.115437 - 84.254037

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	6 (6.28)	4	125.2
2	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.14)	4	123.6
3	Collingwood	6 (6.23)	4	122.2
4	West Coast	6 (6.11)	4	121.6
5	Melbourne	6 (6.19)	4	120.5
6	Adelaide	6 (6.04)	4	119.1
7	Geelong	6 (5.75)	4	112.4
8	Essendon	6 (5.56)	4	108.6
9	Hawthorn	5 (5.40)	5	107.0
10	North Melbourne	5 (5.32)	5	105.5
11	Port Adelaide	5 (5.05)	5	101.6
12	Brisbane Lions	5 (4.72)	5	95.5
13	Western Bulldogs	5 (4.56)	5	93.8
14	St Kilda	4 (4.37)	6	92.0
15	Sydney	4 (3.82)	6	82.6
16	Fremantle	4 (3.69)	6	80.6
17	Carlton	3 (2.55)	7	64.0
18	Gold Coast	2 (2.21)	8	60.5

Round 11

Brisbane Lions 82 - 85 Hawthorn
Gabba (QLD)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.476412 - 0.523588RealScores: 81.533696 - 84.706287

Collingwood 98 - 57 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.828381 - 0.171619RealScores: 98.330681 - 56.570470

Essendon 105 - 61 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.840584 - 0.159416RealScores: 104.735728 - 60.882488

Geelong Geelong 92 - 57 Sydney Sydney
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.783029 - 0.216971RealScores: 91.672620 - 57.108219

Greater Western Sydney 108 - 43 Gold Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.94 wins - 0.06 winsRealProbs: 0.937077 - 0.062923RealScores: 107.505415 - 43.007543

Melbourne 100 - 80 Adelaide
Marrara Oval (NT)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.675883 - 0.324117RealScores: 100.399915 - 80.306460

North Melbourne 69 - 89 Richmond
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.318865 - 0.681135RealScores: 68.513157 - 89.254448

St Kilda 65 - 85 Port Adelaide
Jiangwan Stadium (CHI)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.324900 - 0.675100RealScores: 65.165540 - 85.162917

West Coast 96 - 59 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.798115 - 0.201885RealScores: 96.313795 - 59.446711

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	7 (7.08)	4	131.4
2	Collingwood	7 (7.06)	4	126.1
3	Richmond	7 (6.96)	4	125.7
4	West Coast	7 (6.91)	4	124.8
5	Melbourne	7 (6.87)	4	121.0
6	Geelong	7 (6.54)	4	115.9
7	Adelaide	6 (6.36)	5	114.6
8	Essendon	6 (6.40)	5	113.1
9	Hawthorn	6 (5.92)	5	106.7
10	Port Adelaide	6 (5.73)	5	104.0
11	North Melbourne	6 (5.64)	5	102.6
12	Brisbane Lions	5 (5.20)	6	95.6
13	St Kilda	5 (4.70)	6	90.6
14	Western Bulldogs	5 (4.76)	6	90.4
15	Sydney	4 (4.04)	7	80.6
16	Fremantle	4 (3.86)	7	78.3
17	Carlton	3 (2.71)	8	63.4
18	Gold Coast	2 (2.27)	9	58.5

Round 12

Adelaide 80 - 78 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.506375 - 0.493625RealScores: 79.872199 - 78.417189

Carlton Carlton 74 - 90 Brisbane Lions
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.358998 - 0.641002RealScores: 74.131464 - 90.020189

Collingwood 79 - 83 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.463363 - 0.536637RealScores: 78.943054 - 83.452493

Gold Coast 66 - 95 North Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.253782 - 0.746218RealScores: 65.612616 - 94.797352

Richmond 81 - 69 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.601503 - 0.398497RealScores: 80.703433 - 69.293231

Sydney Sydney 68 - 83 West Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.367320 - 0.632680RealScores: 68.388652 - 83.314221

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	8 (7.58)	4	128.0
2	Richmond	8 (7.56)	4	124.9
3	West Coast	8 (7.54)	4	124.5
4	Collingwood	8 (7.52)	4	122.9
5	Melbourne	7 (7.40)	5	119.6
6	Adelaide	7 (6.87)	5	113.6
7	Geelong	7 (6.93)	5	113.1
8	Essendon	6 (6.40)	5	113.1
9	Hawthorn	6 (5.92)	5	106.7
10	North Melbourne	6 (6.39)	6	105.5
11	Port Adelaide	6 (5.73)	5	104.0
12	Brisbane Lions	6 (5.84)	6	97.4
13	St Kilda	5 (4.70)	6	90.6
14	Western Bulldogs	5 (4.76)	6	90.4
15	Sydney	4 (4.40)	8	80.8
16	Fremantle	4 (3.86)	7	78.3
17	Carlton	3 (3.07)	9	64.9
18	Gold Coast	3 (2.53)	9	59.3

Round 13

Adelaide 83 - 86 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.478744 - 0.521256RealScores: 82.609301 - 85.584092

Carlton Carlton 66 - 86 Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.324410 - 0.675590RealScores: 65.520398 - 85.524646

Essendon 84 - 79 Hawthorn
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.546498 - 0.453502RealScores: 84.211095 - 78.661058

Fremantle 67 - 74 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.440921 - 0.559079RealScores: 67.179502 - 74.039681

Gold Coast 71 - 94 St Kilda
Riverway Stadium (QLD)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.301900 - 0.698100RealScores: 71.083832 - 93.884674

North Melbourne 70 - 78 Greater Western Sydney
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.424523 - 0.575477RealScores: 69.874195 - 78.470147

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	8 (8.15)	5	126.7
2	West Coast	8 (7.54)	4	124.5
3	Collingwood	8 (7.52)	4	122.9
4	Richmond	8 (8.09)	5	122.9
5	Melbourne	7 (7.40)	5	119.6
6	Geelong	7 (6.93)	5	113.1
7	Essendon	7 (6.94)	5	112.6
8	Adelaide	7 (7.35)	6	112.2
9	North Melbourne	7 (6.81)	6	104.2
10	Hawthorn	6 (6.37)	6	105.4
11	Port Adelaide	6 (6.29)	6	104.5
12	Brisbane Lions	6 (5.84)	6	97.4
13	St Kilda	5 (5.39)	7	93.5
14	Western Bulldogs	5 (5.44)	7	93.1
15	Sydney	4 (4.40)	8	80.8
16	Fremantle	4 (4.30)	8	79.2
17	Carlton	3 (3.40)	10	65.7
18	Gold Coast	3 (2.83)	10	60.5

Round 14

Melbourne 108 - 59 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.87 wins - 0.13 winsRealProbs: 0.870620 - 0.129380RealScores: 108.316156 - 59.289112

Port Adelaide 70 - 68 Geelong Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.510632 - 0.489368RealScores: 70.310591 - 68.348465

St Kilda 94 - 84 Brisbane Lions
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.592527 - 0.407473RealScores: 94.226813 - 83.755389

Sydney Sydney 72 - 77 Hawthorn
S.C.G. (NSW)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.456452 - 0.543548RealScores: 72.020121 - 77.310645

West Coast 91 - 73 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.653103 - 0.346897RealScores: 90.655257 - 73.328988

Western Bulldogs 65 - 89 Collingwood
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.289445 - 0.710555RealScores: 64.980279 - 89.378824

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	8 (8.15)	5	126.7
2	West Coast	8 (8.20)	5	124.5
3	Collingwood	8 (8.23)	5	124.0
4	Melbourne	8 (8.28)	5	123.5
5	Richmond	8 (8.09)	5	122.9
6	Adelaide	7 (7.35)	6	112.2
7	Geelong	7 (7.42)	6	111.9
8	Essendon	7 (7.29)	6	109.8
9	Hawthorn	7 (6.92)	6	105.6
10	Port Adelaide	7 (6.80)	6	104.4
11	North Melbourne	7 (6.81)	6	104.2
12	Brisbane Lions	6 (6.25)	7	96.7
13	St Kilda	6 (5.99)	7	94.9
14	Western Bulldogs	6 (5.73)	7	91.4
15	Sydney	5 (4.86)	8	81.6
16	Fremantle	4 (4.43)	9	76.9
17	Carlton	3 (3.40)	10	65.7
18	Gold Coast	3 (2.83)	10	60.5

Round 15

Brisbane Lions 80 - 100 Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.321679 - 0.678321RealScores: 80.063081 - 100.456413

Collingwood 86 - 71 North Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.633479 - 0.366521RealScores: 86.180542 - 71.086843

Essendon 78 - 75 Greater Western Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.521670 - 0.478330RealScores: 78.243642 - 75.111110

Fremantle 87 - 62 Carlton Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.717373 - 0.282627RealScores: 87.460244 - 62.146389

Geelong Geelong 92 - 74 Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.659662 - 0.340338RealScores: 92.314966 - 74.168492

Hawthorn 76 - 77 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499699 - 0.500301RealScores: 75.800671 - 76.811309

Port Adelaide 82 - 59 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.704205 - 0.295795RealScores: 82.408630 - 58.789317

St Kilda 69 - 96 Richmond
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.266597 - 0.733403RealScores: 68.660454 - 96.090375

Sydney Sydney 94 - 55 Gold Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.810278 - 0.189722RealScores: 93.905150 - 55.324286

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	9 (8.82)	5	124.1
2	Greater Western Sydney	9 (8.63)	5	124.1
3	Collingwood	9 (8.87)	5	123.8
4	Melbourne	9 (8.95)	5	123.7
5	West Coast	9 (8.70)	5	122.7
6	Geelong	8 (8.08)	6	112.8
7	Adelaide	8 (7.69)	6	109.6
8	Essendon	8 (7.81)	6	109.4
9	Port Adelaide	8 (7.50)	6	106.5
10	Hawthorn	7 (7.42)	7	105.1
11	North Melbourne	7 (7.18)	7	102.5
12	Brisbane Lions	7 (6.57)	7	95.3
13	St Kilda	6 (6.25)	8	93.1
14	Western Bulldogs	6 (6.02)	8	89.9
15	Sydney	6 (5.67)	8	85.9
16	Fremantle	5 (5.15)	9	80.2
17	Carlton	4 (3.68)	10	66.1
18	Gold Coast	3 (3.02)	11	60.4

Round 16

Adelaide 80 - 75 Port Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.539635 - 0.460365RealScores: 79.976403 - 74.941809

Carlton Carlton 57 - 111 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.11 wins - 0.89 winsRealProbs: 0.106113 - 0.893887RealScores: 57.134756 - 110.804182

Essendon 96 - 65 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.756935 - 0.243065RealScores: 95.990327 - 65.286993

Fremantle 62 - 95 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.23 wins - 0.77 winsRealProbs: 0.225848 - 0.774152RealScores: 61.615809 - 94.772120

Gold Coast 57 - 104 Richmond
Carrara (QLD)0.14 wins - 0.86 winsRealProbs: 0.140745 - 0.859255RealScores: 56.989575 - 103.906789

Greater Western Sydney 98 - 60 Brisbane Lions
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.809581 - 0.190419RealScores: 98.173689 - 59.663060

Hawthorn 71 - 80 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.421022 - 0.578978RealScores: 71.141946 - 80.285515

North Melbourne 92 - 76 St Kilda
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.639232 - 0.360768RealScores: 92.249688 - 76.425785

Western Bulldogs 67 - 86 Geelong Geelong
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.338875 - 0.661125RealScores: 67.204242 - 85.590374

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	10 (9.68)	5	127.4
2	Melbourne	10 (9.85)	5	127.3
3	Greater Western Sydney	9 (9.44)	6	126.5
4	West Coast	9 (9.47)	6	124.5
5	Collingwood	9 (9.44)	6	123.1
6	Geelong	9 (8.74)	6	113.7
7	Essendon	9 (8.57)	6	111.5
8	Adelaide	8 (8.23)	7	109.4
9	Port Adelaide	8 (7.96)	7	105.6
10	Hawthorn	8 (7.84)	7	103.9
11	North Melbourne	8 (7.82)	7	103.7
12	Brisbane Lions	7 (6.76)	8	92.7
13	St Kilda	7 (6.61)	8	92.3
14	Western Bulldogs	6 (6.36)	9	89.1
15	Sydney	6 (5.91)	9	84.5
16	Fremantle	5 (5.37)	10	79.1
17	Carlton	4 (3.78)	11	64.9
18	Gold Coast	3 (3.16)	12	60.0

Round 17

Essendon 91 - 78 North Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.604952 - 0.395048RealScores: 90.533304 - 78.480055

Geelong Geelong 96 - 66 St Kilda
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.749241 - 0.250759RealScores: 96.047170 - 66.335126

Gold Coast 67 - 107 Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.19 wins - 0.81 winsRealProbs: 0.186338 - 0.813662RealScores: 67.301908 - 106.529403

Hawthorn 94 - 60 Fremantle
York Park (TAS)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.781758 - 0.218242RealScores: 93.974105 - 59.631292

Port Adelaide 88 - 65 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.699349 - 0.300651RealScores: 88.099563 - 64.953106

Richmond 77 - 65 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.607184 - 0.392816RealScores: 77.273386 - 64.973997

Sydney Sydney 88 - 58 Carlton Carlton
S.C.G. (NSW)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.751681 - 0.248319RealScores: 88.378811 - 58.329929

West Coast 83 - 69 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.622025 - 0.377975RealScores: 83.104714 - 69.150997

Western Bulldogs 68 - 99 Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.24 wins - 0.76 winsRealProbs: 0.243800 - 0.756200RealScores: 68.040431 - 98.717589

		W	L	%
1	Melbourne	11 (10.60)	5	128.3
2	Richmond	10 (10.29)	6	126.9
3	West Coast	10 (10.09)	6	124.2
4	Greater Western Sydney	10 (9.83)	6	123.4
5	Collingwood	10 (9.82)	6	120.1
6	Geelong	9 (9.49)	7	115.5
7	Adelaide	9 (9.04)	7	112.0
8	Essendon	9 (9.17)	7	111.8
9	Port Adelaide	9 (8.66)	7	107.3
10	Hawthorn	9 (8.62)	7	106.6
11	North Melbourne	8 (8.21)	8	102.5
12	Brisbane Lions	7 (7.06)	9	91.5
13	St Kilda	7 (6.86)	9	90.7
14	Western Bulldogs	7 (6.60)	9	87.6
15	Sydney	7 (6.67)	9	87.5
16	Fremantle	6 (5.59)	10	78.0
17	Carlton	4 (4.03)	12	65.0
18	Gold Coast	3 (3.35)	13	60.2

Round 18

Adelaide 94 - 86 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.568039 - 0.431961RealScores: 94.418161 - 86.228247

Brisbane Lions 87 - 85 North Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.502716 - 0.497284RealScores: 86.622090 - 85.071116

Carlton Carlton 83 - 65 Gold Coast
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.654886 - 0.345114RealScores: 82.560189 - 64.718482

Fremantle 78 - 71 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.560436 - 0.439564RealScores: 78.155562 - 70.762771

Geelong Geelong 77 - 74 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.516392 - 0.483608RealScores: 76.506108 - 73.602693

Greater Western Sydney 78 - 64 Collingwood
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.624201 - 0.375799RealScores: 78.338381 - 64.030930

Melbourne 90 - 74 West Coast
Traeger Park (NT)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.638437 - 0.361563RealScores: 89.714790 - 73.786127

Richmond 83 - 57 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.720068 - 0.279932RealScores: 83.102526 - 57.196838

St Kilda 84 - 80 Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.530985 - 0.469015RealScores: 84.229147 - 79.861607

		W	L	%
1	Melbourne	11 (11.24)	6	127.9
2	Richmond	11 (11.01)	6	127.8
3	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.46)	7	123.4
4	West Coast	10 (10.45)	7	121.1
5	Collingwood	10 (10.20)	7	117.6
6	Geelong	10 (10.01)	7	114.8
7	Adelaide	10 (9.61)	7	111.8
8	Essendon	10 (9.61)	7	110.3
9	Hawthorn	9 (9.10)	8	106.0
10	Port Adelaide	9 (8.94)	8	104.6
11	North Melbourne	9 (8.71)	8	102.2
12	Brisbane Lions	8 (7.56)	9	92.1
13	St Kilda	7 (7.40)	10	91.5
14	Western Bulldogs	7 (7.07)	10	88.0
15	Sydney	7 (7.10)	10	87.6
16	Fremantle	6 (6.15)	11	79.6
17	Carlton	5 (4.69)	12	67.6
18	Gold Coast	4 (3.69)	13	61.1

Round 19

Carlton Carlton 69 - 101 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.24 wins - 0.76 winsRealProbs: 0.235573 - 0.764427RealScores: 68.834653 - 100.896070

Collingwood 73 - 78 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.459329 - 0.540671RealScores: 72.826584 - 78.306739

Gold Coast 64 - 106 Essendon
Carrara (QLD)0.17 wins - 0.83 winsRealProbs: 0.172039 - 0.827961RealScores: 64.030910 - 105.806515

Hawthorn 96 - 71 Brisbane Lions
York Park (TAS)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.711655 - 0.288345RealScores: 95.590394 - 70.649590

Port Adelaide 65 - 67 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 65.341330 - 66.614198

St Kilda 75 - 102 Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.266000 - 0.734000RealScores: 74.550622 - 102.420698

Sydney Sydney 70 - 79 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.419015 - 0.580985RealScores: 69.545194 - 79.235645

West Coast 93 - 65 North Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.734443 - 0.265557RealScores: 93.248760 - 65.319413

Western Bulldogs 85 - 68 Fremantle
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.643109 - 0.356891RealScores: 84.896396 - 68.303366

		W	L	%
1	Melbourne	12 (11.98)	6	128.5
2	Richmond	12 (11.55)	6	126.6
3	West Coast	11 (11.19)	7	122.2
4	Greater Western Sydney	11 (10.96)	7	122.2
5	Collingwood	11 (10.66)	7	116.1
6	Geelong	11 (10.59)	7	114.8
7	Adelaide	10 (10.37)	8	113.5
8	Essendon	10 (10.43)	8	112.8
9	Hawthorn	10 (9.81)	8	107.5
10	Port Adelaide	9 (9.44)	9	104.3
11	North Melbourne	9 (8.97)	9	100.1
12	Brisbane Lions	8 (7.85)	10	91.0
13	St Kilda	8 (7.66)	10	90.3
14	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.72)	10	89.7
15	Sydney	8 (7.52)	10	87.7
16	Fremantle	7 (6.51)	11	79.6
17	Carlton	5 (4.92)	13	67.6
18	Gold Coast	4 (3.86)	14	61.1

Round 20

Adelaide 104 - 77 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.727614 - 0.272386RealScores: 104.141523 - 76.975366

Brisbane Lions 91 - 76 Western Bulldogs
Gabba (QLD)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.628712 - 0.371288RealScores: 90.956186 - 75.870024

Carlton Carlton 60 - 97 West Coast
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.20 wins - 0.80 winsRealProbs: 0.200610 - 0.799390RealScores: 59.511979 - 96.884531

Collingwood 111 - 47 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.94 wins - 0.06 winsRealProbs: 0.935720 - 0.064280RealScores: 111.430029 - 47.459945

Essendon 84 - 67 Port Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.646975 - 0.353025RealScores: 83.801064 - 66.616819

Fremantle 69 - 85 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.361489 - 0.638511RealScores: 68.517195 - 84.722595

Greater Western Sydney 85 - 57 Sydney Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.731314 - 0.268686RealScores: 84.819753 - 57.162496

Melbourne 80 - 82 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 80.433930 - 81.707786

North Melbourne 76 - 81 Hawthorn
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.457909 - 0.542091RealScores: 75.537357 - 81.305269

		W	L	%
1	Melbourne	12 (12.48)	7	126.7
2	Richmond	12 (12.05)	7	125.0
3	West Coast	12 (11.99)	7	124.0
4	Greater Western Sydney	12 (11.69)	7	123.4
5	Collingwood	12 (11.59)	7	120.3
6	Geelong	11 (11.23)	8	115.2
7	Adelaide	11 (11.10)	8	114.6
8	Essendon	11 (11.08)	8	113.4
9	Hawthorn	10 (10.36)	9	107.5
10	Port Adelaide	10 (9.79)	9	102.8
11	North Melbourne	9 (9.43)	10	99.8
12	Brisbane Lions	8 (8.48)	11	92.3
13	Western Bulldogs	8 (8.09)	11	89.4
14	St Kilda	8 (7.93)	11	89.3
15	Sydney	8 (7.79)	11	86.5
16	Fremantle	7 (6.87)	12	79.7
17	Carlton	5 (5.12)	14	67.3
18	Gold Coast	4 (3.93)	15	60.0

Round 21

Brisbane Lions 102 - 66 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.790370 - 0.209630RealScores: 101.674989 - 65.500581

Essendon 94 - 72 Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.686330 - 0.313670RealScores: 93.849491 - 71.790944

Geelong Geelong 89 - 67 North Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.692409 - 0.307591RealScores: 89.315006 - 66.502688

Greater Western Sydney 82 - 61 Hawthorn
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.680879 - 0.319121RealScores: 82.065422 - 60.676757

Melbourne 84 - 79 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.529788 - 0.470212RealScores: 83.534978 - 78.860569

Port Adelaide 82 - 56 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.716347 - 0.283653RealScores: 81.633786 - 55.778485

Richmond 104 - 53 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.88 wins - 0.12 winsRealProbs: 0.878166 - 0.121834RealScores: 103.778465 - 52.623255

St Kilda 92 - 71 Fremantle
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.679236 - 0.320764RealScores: 92.454573 - 71.266700

West Coast 96 - 73 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.688787 - 0.311213RealScores: 95.800553 - 73.438221

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	13 (12.92)	7	127.8
2	Melbourne	13 (13.01)	7	125.6
3	West Coast	13 (12.68)	7	124.4
4	Greater Western Sydney	12 (12.37)	8	124.0
5	Collingwood	12 (12.06)	8	118.8
6	Geelong	12 (11.92)	8	116.1
7	Essendon	12 (11.77)	8	114.2
8	Adelaide	11 (11.41)	9	112.3
9	Hawthorn	11 (10.68)	9	105.7
10	Port Adelaide	11 (10.51)	9	104.5
11	North Melbourne	10 (9.74)	10	98.4
12	Brisbane Lions	9 (9.27)	11	94.7
13	St Kilda	9 (8.61)	11	90.9
14	Western Bulldogs	8 (8.40)	12	88.6
15	Sydney	8 (8.08)	12	85.6
16	Fremantle	7 (7.19)	13	79.5
17	Carlton	5 (5.25)	15	66.4
18	Gold Coast	4 (4.14)	16	60.2

Round 22

Adelaide 87 - 81 Collingwood
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.533063 - 0.466937RealScores: 86.555128 - 81.379710

Brisbane Lions 78 - 88 Geelong Geelong
Gabba (QLD)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.425148 - 0.574852RealScores: 77.995796 - 87.504332

Carlton Carlton 69 - 93 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.294613 - 0.705387RealScores: 68.598321 - 93.227048

Fremantle 74 - 92 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.345273 - 0.654727RealScores: 73.817350 - 92.245077

Greater Western Sydney 92 - 54 Western Bulldogs
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.798562 - 0.201438RealScores: 91.696104 - 54.076632

Hawthorn 105 - 51 Gold Coast
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.89 wins - 0.11 winsRealProbs: 0.888571 - 0.111429RealScores: 104.984569 - 51.498317

Melbourne 101 - 61 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.816294 - 0.183706RealScores: 101.429630 - 61.018697

North Melbourne 75 - 69 Port Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.544279 - 0.455721RealScores: 75.463160 - 69.144395

Richmond 83 - 69 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.608905 - 0.391095RealScores: 82.678317 - 69.479246

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	14 (13.53)	7	127.4
2	Melbourne	14 (13.82)	7	127.2
3	Greater Western Sydney	13 (13.17)	8	125.8
4	West Coast	13 (13.07)	8	122.1
5	Collingwood	13 (12.53)	8	117.4
6	Geelong	12 (12.50)	9	115.9
7	Essendon	12 (12.42)	9	114.7
8	Adelaide	12 (11.94)	9	112.1
9	Hawthorn	12 (11.56)	9	108.9
10	Port Adelaide	11 (10.97)	10	103.8
11	North Melbourne	10 (10.28)	11	98.8
12	Brisbane Lions	10 (9.69)	11	94.5
13	St Kilda	9 (9.32)	12	92.6
14	Western Bulldogs	9 (8.60)	12	87.1
15	Sydney	8 (8.26)	13	84.1
16	Fremantle	8 (7.53)	13	79.6
17	Carlton	6 (5.54)	15	66.7
18	Gold Coast	4 (4.25)	17	59.7

Round 23

Collingwood 84 - 79 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.531699 - 0.468301RealScores: 83.992931 - 78.772942

Geelong Geelong 103 - 50 Carlton Carlton
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.88 wins - 0.12 winsRealProbs: 0.882038 - 0.117962RealScores: 102.678552 - 50.254829

Gold Coast 55 - 95 Greater Western Sydney
Carrara (QLD)0.19 wins - 0.81 winsRealProbs: 0.188047 - 0.811953RealScores: 55.285493 - 95.227466

North Melbourne 79 - 90 Melbourne
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.409065 - 0.590935RealScores: 79.033830 - 90.452972

Port Adelaide 85 - 56 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.742809 - 0.257191RealScores: 85.492091 - 55.727092

Richmond 104 - 64 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.812452 - 0.187548RealScores: 104.041387 - 64.019671

Sydney Sydney 83 - 76 St Kilda
S.C.G. (NSW)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.546258 - 0.453742RealScores: 83.159744 - 76.454233

West Coast 87 - 65 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.685861 - 0.314139RealScores: 87.494481 - 65.117499

Western Bulldogs 80 - 90 Adelaide
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.420782 - 0.579218RealScores: 80.053072 - 90.212148

		W	L	%
1	Richmond	14 (14.35)	8	128.9
2	Greater Western Sydney	14 (13.98)	8	127.6
3	Melbourne	14 (14.41)	8	126.6
4	West Coast	14 (13.75)	8	122.6
5	Geelong	13 (13.38)	9	118.8
6	Collingwood	13 (13.06)	9	116.8
7	Essendon	13 (12.89)	9	113.7
8	Adelaide	13 (12.52)	9	112.1
9	Hawthorn	12 (11.88)	10	107.1
10	Port Adelaide	12 (11.71)	10	105.6
11	North Melbourne	11 (10.69)	11	98.2
12	Brisbane Lions	10 (9.88)	12	92.7
13	St Kilda	10 (9.77)	12	92.6
14	Western Bulldogs	9 (9.02)	13	87.2
15	Sydney	9 (8.81)	13	85.2
16	Fremantle	8 (7.79)	14	78.9
17	Carlton	6 (5.66)	16	65.8
18	Gold Coast	4 (4.44)	18	59.6

FINALS: WEEK 1

Richmond 83 - 70 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)

Greater Western Sydney 81 - 71 Melbourne
Stadium Australia (NSW)

Geelong Geelong 89 - 77 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

Collingwood 84 - 79 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 2

West Coast 83 - 68 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)

Melbourne 83 - 79 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Richmond 82 - 80 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)

Greater Western Sydney 78 - 66 West Coast
Stadium Australia (NSW)

2019 AFL GRAND FINAL

Richmond 77 - 65 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE4

		Flagpole Height
1	Richmond	60.1
2	Melbourne	59.8
3	Greater Western Sydney	59.1
4	West Coast	58.5
5	Collingwood	57.8
6	Geelong	57.1
7	Essendon	56.5
8	Adelaide	55.2
9	Hawthorn	55.0
10	Port Adelaide	54.0
11	North Melbourne	52.8
12	St Kilda	50.8
13	Brisbane Lions	49.9
14	Western Bulldogs	49.3
15	Sydney	49.0
16	Fremantle	47.2
17	Carlton	43.3
18	Gold Coast	40.8

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Richmond	56.5	63.7	60.1
2	Melbourne	60.6	59.1	59.8
3	Greater Western Sydney	52.1	66.1	59.1
4	West Coast	55.5	61.5	58.5
5	Collingwood	54.4	61.2	57.8
6	Geelong	53.3	60.9	57.1
7	Essendon	57.3	55.6	56.5
8	Adelaide	57.7	52.7	55.2
9	Hawthorn	51.8	58.2	55.0
10	Port Adelaide	46.6	61.5	54.0
11	North Melbourne	51.6	54.1	52.8
12	St Kilda	51.5	50.0	50.8
13	Brisbane Lions	51.5	48.3	49.9
14	Western Bulldogs	46.9	51.8	49.3
15	Sydney	45.2	52.8	49.0
16	Fremantle	44.6	49.7	47.2
17	Carlton	40.0	46.6	43.3
18	Gold Coast	38.0	43.6	40.8