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Year
Squiggle

INFO

What Squiggles areHow to play through a seasonPredictionFAQThe ModelFlagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move up; when they score less, they move move down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

2017201620152014201320122011
Squiggle v161.4%69.1%70.9%72.0%72.5%77.8%77.6%
Squiggle 2.0*64.7%74.9%73.8%72.0%73.0%73.4%77.0%
Squiggle 4*65.7%73.4%73.8%73.4%74.4%73.9%77.6%

* Squiggle 2.0 and Squiggle 4 numbers before 2018 are "retro-dictions"—they were made after the result. This shows how well the model fits historical data, rather than how reliable its predictions have been in practice.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Sun Mar 22 20:57:20 2020 (R1)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

Minor PremierTop 4Top 8Bottom 4Spoon

MODE LADDER

LikelihoodIf not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2020 ROUND 1 TIPS

Richmond 70 - 52 Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: Richmond +1.2 pts
Ins/Outs: Carlton +5.7 pts

Western Bulldogs 59 - 55 Collingwood
Marvel Stadium (VIC)
HGA: Collingwood +0.6 pts
Ins/Outs: Western Bulldogs +2.6 pts

Essendon 56 - 55 Fremantle
Marvel Stadium (VIC)
HGA: Essendon +6.1 pts
Ins/Outs: Essendon +0.7 pts

Adelaide 46 - 54 Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA: Adelaide +8.5 pts
Ins/Outs: Sydney +10.7 pts

Greater Western Sydney 56 - 48 Geelong
Sydney Showground (NSW)
HGA: Greater Western Sydney +8.4 pts
Ins/Outs: Greater Western Sydney +1.5 pts

Gold Coast 53 - 65 Port Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)
HGA: Gold Coast +8.7 pts
Ins/Outs: Gold Coast +3.2 pts

North Melbourne 62 - 63 St Kilda
Marvel Stadium (VIC)
HGA: St Kilda +0.5 pts
Ins/Outs: St Kilda +1.4 pts

Hawthorn 68 - 54 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: Hawthorn +5.7 pts
Ins/Outs: Hawthorn +7.8 pts

West Coast 72 - 56 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: West Coast +7.9 pts
Ins/Outs: Melbourne +1.2 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE2020
Tips after Round 0: 0

History...

In 2020, algorithm SQUIGGLE2020 correctly tipped 7 games at an accuracy of 77.78%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1


St Kilda (111) defeated Hawthorn (90) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 21)
Western Bulldogs (101) defeated North Melbourne (57) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 44)
Melbourne (103) defeated Adelaide (70) at Casey Fields (VIC) [Melbourne by 33)
Gold Coast (122) defeated Geelong (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 68)
Brisbane Lions (77) lost to Port Adelaide (98) at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 21)
West Coast (87) lost to Essendon (95) at Mineral Resources Park (WA) [Essendon by 8)
Greater Western Sydney (121) defeated Sydney (27) at Blacktown (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 94)
Fremantle (90) defeated Carlton (43) at David Grays Arena (WA) [Fremantle by 47)
Richmond (44) lost to Collingwood (84) at Norm Minns Oval (VIC) [Collingwood by 40)

Round 0.2


Adelaide (64) lost to Gold Coast (71) at Flinders University Stadium (SA) [Gold Coast by 7)
Hawthorn (49) lost to Melbourne (81) at York Park (TAS) [Melbourne by 32)
Port Adelaide (95) defeated Western Bulldogs (85) at Bennett Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 10)
West Coast (54) lost to Fremantle (55) at Arena Joondalup (WA) [Fremantle by 1)
Greater Western Sydney (109) defeated Richmond (95) at Robertson Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 14)
Collingwood (57) lost to St Kilda (68) at Morwell Recreation Reserve (VIC) [St Kilda by 11)
Carlton (66) lost to Brisbane Lions (111) at Princes Park (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 45)
North Melbourne (90) defeated Sydney (79) at Kingston Twin Ovals (TAS) [North Melbourne by 11)
Geelong (61) lost to Essendon (65) at Central Reserve (VIC) [Essendon by 4)

Round 1


Richmond (105) defeated Carlton (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 24) Richmond by 13
Western Bulldogs (34) lost to Collingwood (86) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Collingwood by 52) Western Bulldogs by 0
Essendon (63) defeated Fremantle (57) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [Essendon by 6) Essendon by 0
Adelaide (71) lost to Sydney (74) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Sydney by 3) Sydney by 4
Greater Western Sydney (105) defeated Geelong (73) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 4
Gold Coast (29) lost to Port Adelaide (76) at Carrara (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 47) Port Adelaide by 7
North Melbourne (56) defeated St Kilda (54) at Marvel Stadium (VIC) [North Melbourne by 2) St Kilda by 0
Hawthorn (90) defeated Brisbane Lions (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 28) Hawthorn by 9
West Coast (78) defeated Melbourne (51) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 27) West Coast by 11

Round 2


Round 3


Round 4


Round 5


Round 6


Round 7


Round 8


Round 9


Round 10


Round 11


Round 12


Round 13


Round 14


Round 15


Round 16


Round 17


Round 18


Round 19


Round 20


Round 21


Round 22


Round 23

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

90%
10%

SEASON PREDICTOR


Recalculate

Wins%
1
Collingwood
12.2143.8%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
2
Port Adelaide
11.7134.5%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
3
Richmond
11.7129.8%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
4
Greater Western Sydney
10.8121.3%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
5
Hawthorn
10.0113.4%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
6
Geelong
9.6113.5%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
7
West Coast
9.4107.2%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
8
Brisbane Lions
8.7104.6%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
9
North Melbourne
8.295.1%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
10
St Kilda
7.9100.4%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
Western Bulldogs
7.693.9%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Fremantle
7.596.8%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
Carlton
7.494.1%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
Sydney
7.589.1%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Essendon
7.488.8%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Melbourne
7.191.5%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Adelaide
5.077.3%
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
Gold Coast
3.663.7%
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 1

WLD%
1
Port Adelaide
1 (1.00)00262.1
2
Collingwood
1 (1.00)00252.9
3
West Coast
1 (1.00)00152.9
4
Hawthorn
1 (1.00)00145.2
5
Greater Western Sydney
1 (1.00)00143.8
6
Richmond
1 (1.00)00129.6
7
Essendon
1 (1.00)00110.5
8
Sydney
1 (1.00)00104.2
9
North Melbourne
1 (1.00)00103.7
10
St Kilda
0 (0.00)1096.4
11
Adelaide
0 (0.00)1095.9
12
Fremantle
0 (0.00)1090.5
13
Carlton
0 (0.00)1077.1
14
Geelong
0 (0.00)1069.5
15
Brisbane Lions
0 (0.00)1068.9
16
Melbourne
0 (0.00)1065.4
17
Western Bulldogs
0 (0.00)1039.5
18
Gold Coast
0 (0.00)1038.2

Round 2

Collingwood 59 - 53 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.532103 - 0.467897RealScores: 58.924069 - 52.742965

Sydney 65 - 58 Essendon
S.C.G. (NSW)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.532267 - 0.467733RealScores: 64.676978 - 58.477776

Melbourne 58 - 67 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.436072 - 0.563928RealScores: 57.604429 - 67.374985

Carlton 67 - 69 Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 66.658905 - 68.803495

Brisbane Lions 74 - 60 North Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.597284 - 0.402716RealScores: 73.791783 - 60.099282

Port Adelaide 78 - 45 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.741590 - 0.258410RealScores: 78.251008 - 44.991716

Geelong 86 - 38 Gold Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.822603 - 0.177397RealScores: 85.686197 - 38.354567

St Kilda 64 - 62 West Coast
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 64.352106 - 62.021558

Fremantle 56 - 57 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 56.100790 - 56.206676

WLD%
1
Port Adelaide
2 (1.74)00208.5
2
Collingwood
2 (1.53)00167.1
3
Greater Western Sydney
2 (1.56)00132.0
4
Hawthorn
2 (1.50)00123.8
5
Sydney
2 (1.53)00107.1
6
West Coast
1 (1.50)10121.4
7
Richmond
1 (1.47)10112.7
8
Geelong
1 (0.82)10110.7
9
St Kilda
1 (0.50)10100.3
10
Essendon
1 (1.47)1099.8
11
North Melbourne
1 (1.40)1090.9
12
Brisbane Lions
1 (0.60)1090.5
13
Western Bulldogs
1 (0.50)1067.3
14
Fremantle
0 (0.50)2094.9
15
Carlton
0 (0.50)2085.0
16
Adelaide
0 (0.26)2076.2
17
Melbourne
0 (0.44)2074.7
18
Gold Coast
0 (0.18)2041.7

Round 3

Carlton 70 - 65 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.526204 - 0.473796RealScores: 69.505091 - 64.670952

Greater Western Sydney 74 - 55 Western Bulldogs
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.649583 - 0.350417RealScores: 73.791406 - 54.598944

Hawthorn 44 - 59 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.383595 - 0.616405RealScores: 43.779774 - 58.872499

Adelaide 63 - 77 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.394870 - 0.605130RealScores: 62.768149 - 76.511876

North Melbourne 52 - 65 Port Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.395237 - 0.604763RealScores: 51.612097 - 65.312316

West Coast 64 - 63 Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 64.072996 - 62.744175

Melbourne 60 - 56 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.520171 - 0.479829RealScores: 60.346057 - 56.158851

St Kilda 56 - 73 Richmond
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.361989 - 0.638011RealScores: 55.672663 - 73.412028

Gold Coast 53 - 66 Sydney
Carrara (QLD)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.406720 - 0.593280RealScores: 53.200004 - 65.548335

WLD%
1
Port Adelaide
2 (2.35)10174.8
2
Collingwood
2 (2.15)10156.1
3
Greater Western Sydney
2 (2.21)10132.9
4
Richmond
2 (2.11)10118.2
5
West Coast
2 (2.00)10114.6
6
Sydney
2 (2.13)10111.8
7
Hawthorn
2 (1.88)10107.4
8
Essendon
2 (1.94)1097.4
9
North Melbourne
2 (1.80)1086.9
10
Geelong
1 (1.32)20106.8
11
Brisbane Lions
1 (1.20)2099.7
12
Fremantle
1 (0.98)2094.3
13
Carlton
1 (1.03)2091.1
14
St Kilda
1 (0.86)2090.9
15
Melbourne
1 (0.96)2083.8
16
Adelaide
1 (0.65)2078.1
17
Western Bulldogs
1 (0.85)2069.5
18
Gold Coast
1 (0.58)2053.1

Round 4

Brisbane Lions 54 - 65 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.415071 - 0.584929RealScores: 53.962463 - 64.795934

North Melbourne 61 - 63 Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.494457 - 0.505543RealScores: 61.096528 - 63.314845

Port Adelaide 71 - 49 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.680439 - 0.319561RealScores: 71.162231 - 48.707768

Richmond 89 - 47 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.810520 - 0.189480RealScores: 88.646940 - 46.747629

Fremantle 75 - 41 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.758653 - 0.241347RealScores: 74.583258 - 41.120485

Essendon 58 - 70 Greater Western Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.401365 - 0.598635RealScores: 57.716606 - 70.123079

Sydney 67 - 66 Carlton
S.C.G. (NSW)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 67.164259 - 65.577652

St Kilda 63 - 58 Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.530956 - 0.469044RealScores: 63.186874 - 58.295536

Geelong 59 - 58 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 59.190789 - 57.841403

WLD%
1
Port Adelaide
3 (3.03)10166.8
2
Collingwood
3 (2.73)10145.6
3
Richmond
3 (2.92)10132.0
4
Greater Western Sydney
3 (2.81)10130.2
5
Sydney
3 (2.63)10109.3
6
Fremantle
2 (1.74)20110.5
7
Geelong
2 (1.82)20105.8
8
Hawthorn
2 (2.38)20104.9
9
West Coast
2 (2.32)20101.4
10
Brisbane Lions
2 (1.62)2095.9
11
Essendon
2 (2.34)2093.3
12
Carlton
2 (1.53)2092.5
13
North Melbourne
2 (2.29)2089.2
14
St Kilda
1 (1.39)3095.0
15
Melbourne
1 (1.43)3085.8
16
Western Bulldogs
1 (1.36)3076.8
17
Adelaide
1 (0.84)3071.0
18
Gold Coast
1 (0.83)3053.6

Round 5

Adelaide 63 - 64 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 62.849543 - 64.151266

West Coast 63 - 69 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.453921 - 0.546079RealScores: 62.892809 - 69.076434

Collingwood 56 - 45 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.588373 - 0.411627RealScores: 56.014885 - 45.175886

Gold Coast 51 - 67 Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.364616 - 0.635384RealScores: 51.012815 - 67.329076

Sydney 54 - 72 Greater Western Sydney
S.C.G. (NSW)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.352265 - 0.647735RealScores: 54.405308 - 72.221008

Western Bulldogs 69 - 68 Brisbane Lions
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 68.859918 - 67.841853

North Melbourne 61 - 57 Fremantle
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.524284 - 0.475716RealScores: 60.712825 - 56.840299

Hawthorn 68 - 59 Carlton
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.570576 - 0.429424RealScores: 67.763932 - 58.912786

Geelong 70 - 54 St Kilda
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.629004 - 0.370996RealScores: 69.717852 - 54.165700

WLD%
1
Port Adelaide
3 (3.44)20145.8
2
Collingwood
3 (3.32)20141.3
3
Greater Western Sydney
3 (3.46)20130.7
4
Richmond
3 (3.46)20127.4
5
Hawthorn
3 (2.95)20107.0
6
Sydney
3 (2.98)20101.7
7
West Coast
3 (2.77)2099.2
8
Essendon
3 (2.84)2095.0
9
North Melbourne
3 (2.82)2092.4
10
Geelong
2 (2.45)30109.7
11
Fremantle
2 (2.21)30106.9
12
Brisbane Lions
2 (2.12)3096.4
13
Melbourne
2 (2.06)3093.3
14
Carlton
2 (1.96)3091.5
15
St Kilda
2 (1.76)3091.2
16
Western Bulldogs
2 (1.86)3081.5
17
Adelaide
1 (1.34)4075.6
18
Gold Coast
1 (1.19)4057.6

Round 6

Melbourne 53 - 75 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.312173 - 0.687827RealScores: 52.705846 - 75.187149

Hawthorn 64 - 56 West Coast
York Park (TAS)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.561962 - 0.438038RealScores: 63.685106 - 56.037005

Collingwood 70 - 42 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.728000 - 0.272000RealScores: 69.521208 - 41.667480

Brisbane Lions 78 - 57 Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.675203 - 0.324797RealScores: 77.609201 - 56.740945

Port Adelaide 73 - 47 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.714587 - 0.285413RealScores: 72.611161 - 46.594502

Greater Western Sydney 87 - 39 Gold Coast
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.85 wins - 0.15 winsRealProbs: 0.854054 - 0.145946RealScores: 87.494310 - 39.292625

Carlton 67 - 66 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500758 - 0.499242RealScores: 66.917767 - 65.681866

St Kilda 75 - 52 Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.689111 - 0.310889RealScores: 74.853522 - 52.206211

Fremantle 58 - 62 Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.472462 - 0.527538RealScores: 57.548913 - 61.537797

WLD%
1
Port Adelaide
4 (4.15)20147.5
2
Collingwood
4 (4.05)20145.3
3
Greater Western Sydney
4 (4.31)20141.4
4
Richmond
4 (4.15)20129.6
5
Hawthorn
4 (3.52)20108.0
6
Geelong
3 (2.98)30109.3
7
Fremantle
3 (2.69)30104.5
8
Brisbane Lions
3 (2.79)30102.1
9
West Coast
3 (3.21)3097.3
10
Sydney
3 (3.30)3096.1
11
North Melbourne
3 (3.32)3093.4
12
Essendon
3 (3.11)3088.8
13
St Kilda
2 (2.45)4098.5
14
Carlton
2 (2.46)4093.1
15
Melbourne
2 (2.37)4088.8
16
Western Bulldogs
2 (2.14)4078.5
17
Adelaide
2 (1.65)4074.6
18
Gold Coast
1 (1.34)5055.2

Round 7

Collingwood 65 - 44 St Kilda
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.676992 - 0.323008RealScores: 65.050635 - 44.246797

Gold Coast 58 - 63 Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.451907 - 0.548093RealScores: 57.506083 - 63.485884

Richmond 72 - 59 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.605607 - 0.394393RealScores: 71.582392 - 59.297822

Port Adelaide 78 - 49 Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.741306 - 0.258694RealScores: 78.349174 - 48.997397

Geelong 75 - 60 Brisbane Lions
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.631843 - 0.368157RealScores: 75.167853 - 59.851714

Western Bulldogs 56 - 63 Hawthorn
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.448382 - 0.551618RealScores: 56.190688 - 62.544614

Sydney 62 - 60 North Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.517952 - 0.482048RealScores: 62.382780 - 59.544119

Essendon 60 - 62 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.484997 - 0.515003RealScores: 59.759869 - 62.296676

West Coast 63 - 58 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.543746 - 0.456254RealScores: 63.434141 - 57.913790

WLD%
1
Port Adelaide
5 (4.89)20149.4
2
Collingwood
5 (4.73)20145.5
3
Greater Western Sydney
5 (4.71)20131.1
4
Richmond
5 (4.76)20128.4
5
Geelong
4 (3.61)30111.5
6
Hawthorn
4 (4.07)30108.5
7
West Coast
4 (3.76)3098.9
8
Sydney
4 (3.82)3097.2
9
North Melbourne
4 (3.80)3093.7
10
Essendon
4 (3.60)3089.8
11
Fremantle
3 (3.14)40102.4
12
Brisbane Lions
3 (3.16)4098.6
13
St Kilda
3 (2.78)4094.0
14
Melbourne
3 (2.89)4090.9
15
Carlton
3 (2.71)4088.4
16
Western Bulldogs
3 (2.59)4080.0
17
Adelaide
2 (2.20)5078.6
18
Gold Coast
2 (1.79)5059.5

Round 8

Brisbane Lions 67 - 74 Richmond
Gabba (QLD)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.443579 - 0.556421RealScores: 66.867132 - 73.601973

Adelaide 58 - 64 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.453648 - 0.546352RealScores: 57.976265 - 63.646302

Western Bulldogs 79 - 44 Gold Coast
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.784600 - 0.215400RealScores: 79.130563 - 43.729377

Geelong 70 - 55 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.629948 - 0.370052RealScores: 70.088836 - 55.176269

West Coast 73 - 53 Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.670208 - 0.329792RealScores: 72.924025 - 53.182140

Greater Western Sydney 53 - 57 Collingwood
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.475336 - 0.524664RealScores: 53.444383 - 56.860694

St Kilda 68 - 65 Carlton
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.520030 - 0.479970RealScores: 68.175880 - 65.234309

Melbourne 51 - 66 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.367350 - 0.632650RealScores: 50.519499 - 65.747532

North Melbourne 54 - 62 Hawthorn
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.426837 - 0.573163RealScores: 53.898536 - 62.431152

WLD%
1
Port Adelaide
6 (5.53)20146.8
2
Collingwood
5 (5.25)30139.8
3
Greater Western Sydney
5 (5.18)30126.6
4
Richmond
5 (5.31)30125.9
5
Hawthorn
5 (4.64)30109.3
6
Geelong
4 (4.24)40113.2
7
Fremantle
4 (3.69)40103.3
8
West Coast
4 (4.43)40103.0
9
Brisbane Lions
4 (3.60)4097.5
10
Sydney
4 (4.15)4093.9
11
North Melbourne
4 (4.22)4092.8
12
Essendon
4 (3.97)4088.3
13
St Kilda
3 (3.30)5095.4
14
Carlton
3 (3.19)5089.3
15
Melbourne
3 (3.26)5089.1
16
Western Bulldogs
3 (3.37)5088.2
17
Adelaide
3 (2.66)5080.0
18
Gold Coast
2 (2.00)6058.9

Round 9

Richmond 69 - 59 Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.584537 - 0.415463RealScores: 69.061318 - 59.391808

North Melbourne 64 - 60 Essendon
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.531766 - 0.468234RealScores: 63.655837 - 59.585676

Gold Coast 50 - 75 West Coast
Carrara (QLD)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.291960 - 0.708040RealScores: 50.282221 - 74.656780

Greater Western Sydney 73 - 54 St Kilda
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.665096 - 0.334904RealScores: 72.664101 - 53.705398

Hawthorn 68 - 49 Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.671031 - 0.328969RealScores: 68.278897 - 48.593419

Port Adelaide 75 - 52 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.697426 - 0.302574RealScores: 75.291539 - 52.290870

Carlton 47 - 72 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.283132 - 0.716868RealScores: 46.613474 - 72.150153

Melbourne 69 - 56 Adelaide
Traeger Park (NT)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.610164 - 0.389836RealScores: 68.577926 - 56.060269

Fremantle 63 - 57 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.547548 - 0.452452RealScores: 62.901002 - 57.190999

WLD%
1
Port Adelaide
6 (6.22)30146.5
2
Collingwood
6 (5.97)30141.5
3
Greater Western Sydney
6 (5.85)30127.5
4
Richmond
6 (5.90)30124.8
5
Hawthorn
5 (5.31)40112.3
6
Geelong
5 (4.66)40109.9
7
West Coast
5 (5.13)40107.2
8
North Melbourne
5 (4.76)4094.3
9
Fremantle
4 (4.24)50104.1
10
Brisbane Lions
4 (3.91)5094.2
11
St Kilda
4 (3.63)5092.6
12
Melbourne
4 (3.87)5092.3
13
Sydney
4 (4.48)5091.3
14
Essendon
4 (4.44)5088.9
15
Western Bulldogs
4 (3.83)5088.5
16
Carlton
3 (3.48)6086.6
17
Adelaide
3 (3.05)6080.2
18
Gold Coast
2 (2.30)7059.9

Round 10

Sydney 57 - 67 Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.414512 - 0.585488RealScores: 57.179542 - 66.884431

St Kilda 63 - 55 Fremantle
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.574233 - 0.425767RealScores: 63.379313 - 54.893772

Hawthorn 52 - 58 Port Adelaide
York Park (TAS)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.445978 - 0.554022RealScores: 52.027467 - 58.363221

Adelaide 65 - 72 Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.436477 - 0.563523RealScores: 64.929899 - 72.270108

Essendon 53 - 78 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.282767 - 0.717233RealScores: 52.742916 - 78.186236

Brisbane Lions 85 - 48 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.799889 - 0.200111RealScores: 85.254608 - 47.956018

Melbourne 60 - 63 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.480182 - 0.519818RealScores: 60.266331 - 63.072076

Collingwood 66 - 43 North Melbourne
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.699588 - 0.300412RealScores: 66.092205 - 42.943650

West Coast 65 - 64 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 64.842292 - 64.493785

WLD%
1
Port Adelaide
7 (6.78)30142.7
2
Collingwood
7 (6.67)30142.7
3
Richmond
7 (6.61)30126.9
4
Greater Western Sydney
6 (6.35)40124.4
5
Hawthorn
6 (5.76)40109.9
6
West Coast
6 (5.63)40106.5
7
Geelong
5 (5.24)50110.5
8
Fremantle
5 (4.66)50102.2
9
Brisbane Lions
5 (4.71)50100.1
10
North Melbourne
5 (5.06)5091.2
11
Sydney
5 (4.89)5090.7
12
Essendon
5 (4.72)5086.4
13
St Kilda
4 (4.21)6094.6
14
Melbourne
4 (4.35)6092.7
15
Western Bulldogs
4 (4.35)6090.0
16
Carlton
4 (4.04)6088.8
17
Adelaide
3 (3.48)7081.2
18
Gold Coast
2 (2.50)8059.5

Round 11

Hawthorn 63 - 53 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.588795 - 0.411205RealScores: 62.744354 - 52.716674

Geelong 71 - 53 North Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.657170 - 0.342830RealScores: 70.585529 - 52.758840

Richmond 81 - 49 Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.765553 - 0.234447RealScores: 80.875245 - 48.881221

Greater Western Sydney 84 - 48 Adelaide
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.796561 - 0.203439RealScores: 84.184596 - 47.558529

Fremantle 66 - 64 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.512771 - 0.487229RealScores: 65.667662 - 63.585831

Essendon 75 - 46 Gold Coast
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.744934 - 0.255066RealScores: 74.712205 - 45.631376

Collingwood 68 - 43 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.712055 - 0.287945RealScores: 68.133744 - 43.465898

WLD%
1
Collingwood
7 (7.38)40143.9
2
Port Adelaide
7 (6.78)30142.7
3
Richmond
7 (7.38)40129.8
4
Greater Western Sydney
7 (7.15)40128.3
5
Geelong
6 (5.90)50112.4
6
Hawthorn
6 (6.35)50110.7
7
West Coast
6 (5.92)50102.2
8
Fremantle
5 (5.18)60102.3
9
Brisbane Lions
5 (5.19)6099.8
10
Melbourne
5 (4.76)6091.9
11
Essendon
5 (5.47)6091.3
12
North Melbourne
5 (5.40)6089.6
13
Sydney
5 (5.13)6087.4
14
St Kilda
4 (4.21)6094.6
15
Western Bulldogs
4 (4.35)6090.0
16
Carlton
4 (4.04)6088.8
17
Adelaide
4 (3.69)7078.6
18
Gold Coast
3 (2.75)8059.6

Round 12

Adelaide 60 - 69 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.425948 - 0.574052RealScores: 60.253163 - 68.679646

Sydney 60 - 58 Fremantle
S.C.G. (NSW)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.518324 - 0.481676RealScores: 60.162555 - 57.512923

Gold Coast 46 - 71 Hawthorn
Carrara (QLD)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.282954 - 0.717046RealScores: 45.559154 - 70.820523

Carlton 64 - 73 Greater Western Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.420104 - 0.579896RealScores: 63.993254 - 73.046736

Richmond 75 - 53 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.689932 - 0.310068RealScores: 75.221290 - 53.430526

St Kilda 53 - 64 Port Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.398922 - 0.601078RealScores: 52.962535 - 64.325791

Melbourne 42 - 67 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.286300 - 0.713700RealScores: 41.841710 - 66.666194

WLD%
1
Collingwood
8 (8.09)40145.1
2
Richmond
8 (8.07)40130.6
3
Greater Western Sydney
8 (7.73)40127.0
4
Port Adelaide
7 (7.38)40140.6
5
Hawthorn
7 (7.06)50113.8
6
Geelong
6 (5.90)50112.4
7
West Coast
6 (5.92)50102.2
8
Fremantle
6 (5.66)60101.7
9
Sydney
6 (5.65)6088.7
10
North Melbourne
6 (5.71)6087.8
11
Brisbane Lions
5 (5.19)6099.8
12
St Kilda
5 (4.60)6093.5
13
Western Bulldogs
5 (4.92)6092.0
14
Essendon
5 (5.47)6091.3
15
Melbourne
5 (5.04)7089.3
16
Carlton
4 (4.46)7088.7
17
Adelaide
4 (4.11)8079.3
18
Gold Coast
3 (3.03)9060.0

Round 13

West Coast 72 - 55 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.654764 - 0.345236RealScores: 72.453149 - 54.951911

Gold Coast 46 - 75 St Kilda
Marrara Oval (NT)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.254502 - 0.745498RealScores: 46.051760 - 75.099880

WLD%
1
Collingwood
8 (8.09)40145.1
2
Richmond
8 (8.07)40130.6
3
Greater Western Sydney
8 (7.73)40127.0
4
Port Adelaide
7 (7.38)40140.6
5
Hawthorn
7 (7.06)50113.8
6
West Coast
7 (6.58)50104.5
7
Geelong
6 (5.90)50112.4
8
Fremantle
6 (5.66)60101.7
9
Essendon
6 (5.81)6089.9
10
Sydney
6 (5.65)6088.7
11
North Melbourne
6 (5.71)6087.8
12
Brisbane Lions
5 (5.19)6099.8
13
St Kilda
5 (5.35)7097.8
14
Western Bulldogs
5 (4.92)6092.0
15
Melbourne
5 (5.04)7089.3
16
Carlton
4 (4.46)7088.7
17
Adelaide
4 (4.11)8079.3
18
Gold Coast
3 (3.29)10060.1

Round 14

Sydney 45 - 65 Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.325797 - 0.674203RealScores: 45.204364 - 65.055590

Brisbane Lions 75 - 58 Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.645808 - 0.354192RealScores: 74.648027 - 58.177046

Essendon 59 - 66 St Kilda
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.439832 - 0.560168RealScores: 58.529382 - 65.545582

Fremantle 68 - 60 Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.570972 - 0.429028RealScores: 68.073421 - 59.917991

Port Adelaide 66 - 50 Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.639591 - 0.360409RealScores: 66.168387 - 50.419481

WLD%
1
Collingwood
9 (8.77)40145.0
2
Port Adelaide
8 (8.02)40139.8
3
Richmond
8 (8.07)40130.6
4
Greater Western Sydney
8 (7.73)40127.0
5
Hawthorn
7 (7.06)50113.8
6
West Coast
7 (6.58)50104.5
7
Geelong
6 (6.26)60109.1
8
Fremantle
6 (6.23)70102.6
9
Brisbane Lions
6 (5.84)60101.9
10
St Kilda
6 (5.91)7098.9
11
Essendon
6 (6.25)7089.9
12
North Melbourne
6 (5.71)6087.8
13
Sydney
6 (5.97)7087.2
14
Western Bulldogs
5 (4.92)6092.0
15
Carlton
5 (4.89)7088.6
16
Melbourne
5 (5.40)8088.3
17
Adelaide
4 (4.11)8079.3
18
Gold Coast
3 (3.29)10060.1

Round 15

Western Bulldogs 66 - 60 Essendon
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.550008 - 0.449992RealScores: 65.988991 - 59.968754

Carlton 62 - 73 Geelong
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.404797 - 0.595203RealScores: 61.751376 - 72.569895

West Coast 69 - 56 North Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.617249 - 0.382751RealScores: 69.479246 - 56.224042

Collingwood 79 - 36 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.834350 - 0.165650RealScores: 78.971983 - 36.457380

St Kilda 68 - 54 Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.624387 - 0.375613RealScores: 68.417988 - 54.359021

Port Adelaide 70 - 43 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.724110 - 0.275890RealScores: 69.552027 - 43.356150

WLD%
1
Collingwood
10 (9.60)40149.2
2
Port Adelaide
9 (8.74)40141.2
3
Richmond
8 (8.07)40130.6
4
Greater Western Sydney
8 (7.73)40127.0
5
Hawthorn
7 (7.06)50113.8
6
Geelong
7 (6.85)60109.8
7
West Coast
7 (7.19)60105.8
8
St Kilda
7 (6.53)70100.6
9
Fremantle
7 (6.50)7099.3
10
Essendon
7 (6.70)7089.9
11
Brisbane Lions
6 (5.84)60101.9
12
North Melbourne
6 (6.09)7087.2
13
Sydney
6 (6.35)8086.7
14
Western Bulldogs
5 (5.47)7093.4
15
Carlton
5 (5.30)8088.4
16
Melbourne
5 (5.40)8088.3
17
Adelaide
4 (4.28)9076.5
18
Gold Coast
3 (3.29)10060.1

Round 16

Essendon 53 - 65 Hawthorn
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.394727 - 0.605273RealScores: 53.019657 - 65.016270

Richmond 62 - 58 Port Adelaide
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.529863 - 0.470137RealScores: 62.259154 - 58.217881

Sydney 63 - 62 Western Bulldogs
S.C.G. (NSW)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 62.489556 - 62.142305

Gold Coast 55 - 76 Carlton
Carrara (QLD)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.316856 - 0.683144RealScores: 54.742792 - 75.789756

North Melbourne 59 - 67 Greater Western Sydney
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.430809 - 0.569191RealScores: 58.867282 - 66.971612

WLD%
1
Collingwood
10 (9.60)40149.2
2
Port Adelaide
9 (9.21)50136.9
3
Richmond
9 (8.60)40128.8
4
Greater Western Sydney
8 (8.29)50126.0
5
Hawthorn
8 (7.67)50114.4
6
Geelong
7 (6.85)60109.8
7
West Coast
7 (7.19)60105.8
8
St Kilda
7 (6.53)70100.6
9
Fremantle
7 (6.50)7099.3
10
Essendon
7 (7.10)8089.4
11
Sydney
7 (6.85)8087.5
12
North Melbourne
7 (6.52)7087.2
13
Brisbane Lions
6 (5.84)60101.9
14
Western Bulldogs
6 (5.97)7093.9
15
Carlton
6 (5.98)8091.1
16
Melbourne
5 (5.40)8088.3
17
Adelaide
4 (4.28)9076.5
18
Gold Coast
4 (3.60)10061.0

Round 17

West Coast 80 - 51 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.740137 - 0.259863RealScores: 79.582742 - 51.113625

WLD%
1
Collingwood
10 (9.60)40149.2
2
Port Adelaide
9 (9.21)50136.9
3
Richmond
9 (8.60)40128.8
4
Greater Western Sydney
8 (8.29)50126.0
5
Hawthorn
8 (7.67)50114.4
6
West Coast
8 (7.93)60108.9
7
Geelong
7 (6.85)60109.8
8
St Kilda
7 (6.53)70100.6
9
Fremantle
7 (6.50)7099.3
10
Essendon
7 (7.10)8089.4
11
Sydney
7 (6.85)8087.5
12
North Melbourne
7 (6.52)7087.2
13
Brisbane Lions
6 (5.84)60101.9
14
Western Bulldogs
6 (5.97)7093.9
15
Carlton
6 (5.98)8091.1
16
Melbourne
5 (5.40)8088.3
17
Adelaide
5 (4.54)9075.6
18
Gold Coast
4 (3.60)10061.0

Round 18

Collingwood 61 - 47 Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.626695 - 0.373305RealScores: 61.449999 - 46.860806

Hawthorn 60 - 59 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 60.221243 - 59.105013

Gold Coast 46 - 85 Richmond
Carrara (QLD)0.18 wins - 0.82 winsRealProbs: 0.183917 - 0.816083RealScores: 45.621969 - 85.335424

Sydney 51 - 67 Port Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.357859 - 0.642141RealScores: 50.826712 - 67.182314

St Kilda 63 - 62 Western Bulldogs
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 63.109722 - 62.030335

Carlton 72 - 74 Brisbane Lions
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 72.262948 - 73.530335

WLD%
1
Collingwood
10 (10.23)50147.9
2
Port Adelaide
10 (9.86)50136.6
3
Richmond
9 (9.42)50132.1
4
Greater Western Sydney
9 (8.79)50123.9
5
Hawthorn
8 (8.17)60113.5
6
West Coast
8 (7.93)60108.9
7
Geelong
7 (7.23)70107.4
8
St Kilda
7 (7.03)80100.7
9
Fremantle
7 (6.50)7099.3
10
Essendon
7 (7.10)8089.4
11
North Melbourne
7 (6.52)7087.2
12
Sydney
7 (7.21)9086.8
13
Brisbane Lions
6 (6.34)70101.9
14
Western Bulldogs
6 (6.47)8094.2
15
Carlton
6 (6.48)9091.6
16
Melbourne
5 (5.40)8088.3
17
Adelaide
5 (4.54)9075.6
18
Gold Coast
4 (3.79)11060.4

Round 19

Carlton 68 - 69 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 68.229971 - 68.646524

North Melbourne 76 - 44 Gold Coast
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.757662 - 0.242338RealScores: 75.522149 - 44.414596

Geelong 71 - 51 Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.673715 - 0.326285RealScores: 71.346785 - 51.134255

Richmond 76 - 56 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.671684 - 0.328316RealScores: 75.575800 - 55.608567

Brisbane Lions 74 - 61 St Kilda
Gabba (QLD)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.607146 - 0.392854RealScores: 73.562500 - 61.031648

Fremantle 46 - 59 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.383478 - 0.616522RealScores: 45.864743 - 59.436313

WLD%
1
Collingwood
11 (10.85)50146.7
2
Port Adelaide
10 (9.86)50136.6
3
Richmond
10 (10.09)50132.4
4
Greater Western Sydney
9 (8.79)50123.9
5
Hawthorn
8 (8.17)60113.5
6
Geelong
8 (7.90)70109.2
7
West Coast
8 (8.43)70108.2
8
Brisbane Lions
7 (6.95)70103.1
9
St Kilda
7 (7.43)9099.3
10
Fremantle
7 (6.89)8097.8
11
Western Bulldogs
7 (6.80)8092.6
12
Carlton
7 (6.98)9092.1
13
North Melbourne
7 (7.28)8091.1
14
Essendon
7 (7.10)8089.4
15
Sydney
7 (7.21)9086.8
16
Melbourne
6 (5.72)8087.0
17
Adelaide
5 (4.54)9075.6
18
Gold Coast
4 (4.03)12060.3

Round 20

Greater Western Sydney 77 - 61 Brisbane Lions
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.640338 - 0.359662RealScores: 77.055873 - 60.640140

Geelong 71 - 55 Western Bulldogs
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.643233 - 0.356767RealScores: 71.304307 - 54.554172

St Kilda 56 - 61 Hawthorn
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.461191 - 0.538809RealScores: 55.727562 - 61.160409

Melbourne 65 - 56 Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.574424 - 0.425576RealScores: 64.930526 - 55.796101

WLD%
1
Collingwood
11 (10.85)50146.7
2
Port Adelaide
10 (9.86)50136.6
3
Richmond
10 (10.09)50132.4
4
Greater Western Sydney
9 (9.43)60124.2
5
Hawthorn
9 (8.71)60113.2
6
Geelong
9 (8.54)70110.4
7
West Coast
8 (8.43)70108.2
8
St Kilda
8 (7.89)9098.9
9
Sydney
8 (7.63)9086.7
10
Brisbane Lions
7 (7.31)80101.2
11
Fremantle
7 (6.89)8097.8
12
Carlton
7 (6.98)9092.1
13
Western Bulldogs
7 (7.16)9091.5
14
North Melbourne
7 (7.28)8091.1
15
Essendon
7 (7.10)8089.4
16
Melbourne
6 (6.30)9088.7
17
Adelaide
5 (4.54)9075.6
18
Gold Coast
4 (4.03)12060.3

Round 21

Brisbane Lions 73 - 65 West Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.569857 - 0.430143RealScores: 73.373275 - 64.564779

Hawthorn 74 - 47 Adelaide
York Park (TAS)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.728580 - 0.271420RealScores: 74.405177 - 46.945646

Port Adelaide 75 - 44 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.760428 - 0.239572RealScores: 75.434500 - 43.622061

WLD%
1
Collingwood
11 (10.85)50146.7
2
Port Adelaide
11 (10.62)50138.6
3
Richmond
10 (10.09)50132.4
4
Greater Western Sydney
9 (9.43)60124.2
5
Hawthorn
9 (9.44)70115.6
6
Geelong
9 (8.54)70110.4
7
West Coast
9 (8.86)70106.7
8
Brisbane Lions
8 (7.88)80102.0
9
St Kilda
8 (7.89)9098.9
10
Sydney
8 (7.63)9086.7
11
Fremantle
7 (6.89)8097.8
12
Carlton
7 (6.98)9092.1
13
Western Bulldogs
7 (7.16)9091.5
14
North Melbourne
7 (7.28)8091.1
15
Essendon
7 (7.34)9087.1
16
Melbourne
6 (6.30)9088.7
17
Adelaide
5 (4.81)10074.7
18
Gold Coast
4 (4.03)12060.3

Round 22

Melbourne 65 - 67 Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499717 - 0.500283RealScores: 64.754430 - 66.664523

Greater Western Sydney 71 - 50 Fremantle
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.674638 - 0.325362RealScores: 71.152411 - 50.345339

Richmond 66 - 55 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.587078 - 0.412922RealScores: 66.200007 - 55.384062

Adelaide 60 - 66 North Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.460482 - 0.539518RealScores: 60.102477 - 65.934234

WLD%
1
Collingwood
11 (10.85)50146.7
2
Port Adelaide
11 (10.62)50138.6
3
Richmond
11 (10.67)50131.6
4
Greater Western Sydney
10 (10.11)60125.1
5
Hawthorn
10 (9.85)70113.4
6
Geelong
9 (8.54)70110.4
7
West Coast
9 (8.86)70106.7
8
Brisbane Lions
8 (7.88)80102.0
9
St Kilda
8 (7.89)9098.9
10
North Melbourne
8 (7.82)8092.2
11
Sydney
8 (7.63)9086.7
12
Fremantle
7 (7.21)9095.8
13
Carlton
7 (7.48)10092.7
14
Western Bulldogs
7 (7.16)9091.5
15
Melbourne
7 (6.80)9089.3
16
Essendon
7 (7.34)9087.1
17
Adelaide
5 (5.27)11075.7
18
Gold Coast
4 (4.03)12060.3

Round 23

Port Adelaide 67 - 52 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.623620 - 0.376380RealScores: 66.904424 - 51.871705

North Melbourne 64 - 57 Melbourne
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.546723 - 0.453277RealScores: 63.729185 - 56.975890

Geelong 82 - 47 Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.778838 - 0.221162RealScores: 81.939044 - 47.069403

Western Bulldogs 65 - 63 West Coast
Marvel Stadium (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 65.128910 - 63.220332

Collingwood 83 - 30 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.89 wins - 0.11 winsRealProbs: 0.885543 - 0.114457RealScores: 82.704376 - 29.569475

Fremantle 57 - 68 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.413146 - 0.586854RealScores: 56.625091 - 67.603296

Brisbane Lions 78 - 58 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.663018 - 0.336982RealScores: 77.665318 - 58.061546

WLD%
1
Collingwood
12 (11.73)50152.0
2
Port Adelaide
11 (11.24)60138.0
3
Richmond
11 (11.26)60130.9
4
Greater Western Sydney
10 (10.49)70121.9
5
Hawthorn
10 (9.85)70113.4
6
Geelong
9 (9.32)80113.4
7
West Coast
9 (9.36)80106.1
8
Brisbane Lions
9 (8.54)80103.6
9
St Kilda
8 (7.89)9098.9
10
Fremantle
8 (7.63)9095.1
11
North Melbourne
8 (8.37)9093.2
12
Western Bulldogs
8 (7.66)9092.1
13
Sydney
8 (7.63)9086.7
14
Essendon
8 (7.67)9086.3
15
Carlton
7 (7.48)10092.7
16
Melbourne
7 (7.25)10089.3
17
Adelaide
5 (5.49)12074.5
18
Gold Coast
4 (4.15)13058.7

FINALS: WEEK 1

Collingwood 64 - 47 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Port Adelaide 65 - 56 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)

Hawthorn 68 - 59 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)

Geelong 69 - 58 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Greater Western Sydney 66 - 54 Hawthorn
Stadium Australia (NSW)

Richmond 69 - 59 Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Collingwood 59 - 53 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)

Port Adelaide 67 - 52 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)

2020 AFL GRAND FINAL

Port Adelaide 45 - 56 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE2020

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

Flagpole Height
1Collingwood64.3
2Port Adelaide61.1
3Richmond59.8
4Greater Western Sydney57.1
5Geelong56.6
6Hawthorn55.5
7Brisbane Lions53.9
8West Coast53.6
9St Kilda52.4
10Western Bulldogs52.1
11North Melbourne51.5
12Fremantle51.5
13Carlton51.3
14Melbourne50.5
15Essendon49.5
16Sydney49.0
17Adelaide45.8
18Gold Coast41.0

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

AttackDefenceCombined
1Collingwood52.576.264.4
2Port Adelaide54.467.761.1
3Richmond59.260.659.9
4Greater Western Sydney55.558.757.1
5Geelong54.059.356.6
6Hawthorn49.861.355.5
7Brisbane Lions56.051.853.9
8West Coast52.354.953.6
9St Kilda49.955.052.4
10Western Bulldogs50.353.952.1
11Fremantle46.956.251.5
12North Melbourne48.754.451.5
13Carlton52.949.851.4
14Melbourne47.353.850.5
15Essendon47.451.849.6
16Sydney46.351.849.0
17Adelaide44.747.246.0
18Gold Coast37.245.141.2

EDIT SQUIGGLE

Oooh past

Oooh future

TODO:

(1) Allow for updating of FLAGPOLE

(2) Allow for updating of TOWER

(3) Allow for updating of TIPS

(4) Allow for modification of future games

(5) Allow for modification of past games

HOME TEAM:

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