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Year
Squiggle

INFO

What Squiggles areHow to play through a seasonPredictionFAQThe ModelFlagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move up; when they score less, they move move down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Sun Mar 17 23:03:27 2024 (R3)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

Minor PremierTop 4Top 8Bottom 4Spoon

MODE LADDER

LikelihoodIf not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2024 ROUND 2 TIPS

Adelaide 84 - 76 Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA: Adelaide +10.5 pts
Ins/Outs: Adelaide +0.0 pts

Hawthorn 68 - 86 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: Melbourne +0.3 pts
Ins/Outs: Hawthorn +0.0 pts

North Melbourne 73 - 87 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: North Melbourne +7.4 pts
Ins/Outs: North Melbourne +0.0 pts

Richmond 84 - 95 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: Richmond +8.5 pts
Ins/Outs: Richmond +0.0 pts

St Kilda 74 - 75 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: Collingwood +1.4 pts
Ins/Outs: St Kilda +0.0 pts

Sydney 96 - 67 Essendon
S.C.G. (NSW)
HGA: Sydney +6.7 pts
Ins/Outs: Sydney +0.0 pts

West Coast 72 - 111 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: West Coast +12.2 pts
Ins/Outs: West Coast +0.0 pts

Western Bulldogs 76 - 72 Gold Coast
Eureka Stadium (VIC)
HGA: Western Bulldogs +9.6 pts
Ins/Outs: Western Bulldogs +0.0 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE7
Tips after Round 1: 8

History...

In 2024, algorithm SQUIGGLE7 correctly tipped 8 games at an accuracy of 61.54%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1


Collingwood (76) defeated Richmond (46) at Princes Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 30)
Carlton (63) lost to Melbourne (101) at Princes Park (VIC) [Melbourne by 38)
Greater Western Sydney (105) defeated Gold Coast (61) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 44)
Sydney (56) lost to Brisbane Lions (81) at Blacktown (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 25)
Geelong (83) defeated Essendon (71) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 12)
Port Adelaide (92) defeated Fremantle (53) at Alberton Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 39)
Adelaide (117) defeated West Coast (50) at John Cain Arena (VIC) [Adelaide by 67)
Hawthorn (62) lost to Western Bulldogs (119) at York Park (TAS) [Western Bulldogs by 57)
St Kilda (84) defeated North Melbourne (65) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 19)

Round 0


Brisbane Lions (85) lost to Carlton (86) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 1) Brisbane Lions by 13
Gold Coast (99) defeated Richmond (60) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 39) Gold Coast by 6
Greater Western Sydney (114) defeated Collingwood (82) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 9
Sydney (86) defeated Melbourne (64) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 22) Melbourne by 2

Round 1


Carlton (86) defeated Richmond (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 5) Carlton by 0
Collingwood (69) lost to Sydney (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 33) Collingwood by 8
Essendon (107) defeated Hawthorn (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 24) Essendon by 0
Fremantle (93) defeated Brisbane Lions (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 23) Brisbane Lions by 7
Geelong (76) defeated St Kilda (68) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 8) Geelong by 20
Gold Coast (60) defeated Adelaide (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 6) Adelaide by 0
Greater Western Sydney (121) defeated North Melbourne (82) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 39) Greater Western Sydney by 51
Melbourne (109) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 45) Melbourne by 15
Port Adelaide (120) defeated West Coast (70) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 50) Port Adelaide by 52

Round 2


Round 3


Round 4


Round 5


Round 6


Round 7


Round 8


Round 9


Round 10


Round 11


Round 12


Round 13


Round 14


Round 15


Round 16


Round 17


Round 18


Round 19


Round 20


Round 21


Round 22


Round 23


Round 24


Elimination Final


Semi-Final


Preliminary Final


Grand Final

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

90%
10%

SEASON PREDICTOR


Recalculate

Wins%
1
Sydney
15.1125.7%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
2
Melbourne
14.4127.1%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
3
Greater Western Sydney
14.0115.5%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
4
Gold Coast
13.6113.2%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
5
Geelong
13.2111.4%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
6
Carlton
13.2106.9%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
7
Port Adelaide
13.0110.4%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
8
Fremantle
12.8109.6%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
9
Adelaide
12.1109.7%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
10
Brisbane Lions
11.3105.9%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
11
St Kilda
11.4104.3%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
12
Western Bulldogs
11.4101.8%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
13
Collingwood
10.8100.0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
14
Hawthorn
9.892.0%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
15
Essendon
9.988.9%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
16
Richmond
8.586.6%
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
North Melbourne
7.578.5%
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
18
West Coast
4.963.5%
12
13
14
15
16
17
18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 2

Adelaide 84 - 76 Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.580443 - 0.419557RealScores: 84.079990 - 76.177252

Hawthorn 68 - 86 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.309661 - 0.690339RealScores: 68.119919 - 86.336507

North Melbourne 73 - 87 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.351420 - 0.648580RealScores: 72.546081 - 86.749867

Richmond 84 - 95 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.393112 - 0.606888RealScores: 84.428833 - 94.775448

St Kilda 74 - 75 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.496610 - 0.503390RealScores: 73.931199 - 74.288695

Sydney 96 - 67 Essendon
S.C.G. (NSW)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.786015 - 0.213985RealScores: 96.205439 - 67.343160

West Coast 72 - 111 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.15 wins - 0.85 winsRealProbs: 0.145101 - 0.854899RealScores: 71.914518 - 110.574230

Western Bulldogs 76 - 72 Gold Coast
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.538520 - 0.461480RealScores: 75.827749 - 71.913968

WLD%
1
Greater Western Sydney
3 (2.79)00146.5
2
Sydney
3 (2.72)00141.9
3
Port Adelaide
2 (1.58)00139.1
4
Fremantle
2 (1.61)00126.1
5
Gold Coast
2 (2.48)10121.6
6
Melbourne
2 (1.64)10118.9
7
Carlton
2 (2.00)00103.6
8
Adelaide
1 (0.56)10101.4
9
Geelong
1 (1.44)10100.1
10
Essendon
1 (1.28)1097.3
11
Collingwood
1 (0.50)2077.7
12
Western Bulldogs
1 (0.52)1077.3
13
St Kilda
0 (0.50)2094.4
14
Brisbane Lions
0 (0.00)2086.6
15
Richmond
0 (0.42)3080.6
16
Hawthorn
0 (0.36)2078.2
17
North Melbourne
0 (0.39)2074.4
18
West Coast
0 (0.21)2061.5

Round 3

Brisbane Lions 85 - 75 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.608417 - 0.391583RealScores: 85.473703 - 74.986402

Essendon 71 - 82 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.395942 - 0.604058RealScores: 71.419137 - 81.505253

Fremantle 76 - 69 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.566751 - 0.433249RealScores: 75.656658 - 69.035387

Hawthorn 79 - 86 Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.428462 - 0.571538RealScores: 78.719902 - 85.790976

North Melbourne 73 - 94 Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.275757 - 0.724243RealScores: 72.682901 - 94.380989

Port Adelaide 82 - 83 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 82.476624 - 82.487210

Richmond 74 - 92 Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.307297 - 0.692703RealScores: 73.523269 - 91.974935

Western Bulldogs 112 - 66 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.900745 - 0.099255RealScores: 112.482654 - 65.895771

WLD%
1
Greater Western Sydney
3 (2.79)00146.5
2
Sydney
3 (3.37)10137.4
3
Carlton
3 (2.68)00111.6
4
Port Adelaide
2 (2.08)10125.5
5
Gold Coast
2 (2.48)10121.6
6
Fremantle
2 (2.16)10120.7
7
Melbourne
2 (2.14)20113.7
8
Geelong
2 (2.00)10103.1
9
Essendon
2 (1.70)1094.3
10
Western Bulldogs
1 (1.36)20102.2
11
St Kilda
1 (1.08)20100.8
12
Adelaide
1 (1.01)2097.8
13
Brisbane Lions
1 (0.58)2094.7
14
Hawthorn
1 (0.80)2082.3
15
Richmond
1 (0.77)3080.4
16
Collingwood
1 (0.92)3080.0
17
North Melbourne
1 (0.71)2075.2
18
West Coast
0 (0.38)3060.6

Round 4

Adelaide 74 - 75 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.490073 - 0.509927RealScores: 74.245525 - 75.284461

Brisbane Lions 101 - 74 North Melbourne
Norwood Oval (SA)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.776473 - 0.223527RealScores: 101.319637 - 73.649343

Collingwood 83 - 76 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.572967 - 0.427033RealScores: 82.795375 - 75.590435

Fremantle 72 - 71 Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 71.929595 - 71.919010

Gold Coast 72 - 76 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Hills (SA)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.463955 - 0.536045RealScores: 72.289078 - 75.960094

Port Adelaide 102 - 75 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.772022 - 0.227978RealScores: 102.067671 - 74.941673

Richmond 73 - 82 St Kilda
Norwood Oval (SA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.411197 - 0.588803RealScores: 73.098887 - 81.777338

West Coast 63 - 113 Sydney
Adelaide Hills (SA)0.08 wins - 0.92 winsRealProbs: 0.078198 - 0.921802RealScores: 62.599131 - 113.275961

Western Bulldogs 84 - 85 Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.484106 - 0.515894RealScores: 83.667392 - 85.319938

WLD%
1
Sydney
4 (4.24)10145.5
2
Greater Western Sydney
3 (3.31)10136.8
3
Port Adelaide
3 (2.80)10128.0
4
Fremantle
3 (2.66)10115.5
5
Gold Coast
3 (2.96)10114.1
6
Melbourne
3 (2.64)20111.3
7
Carlton
3 (3.18)10108.9
8
Geelong
3 (2.50)10102.8
9
St Kilda
2 (1.65)20103.5
10
Western Bulldogs
2 (1.85)20101.2
11
Adelaide
2 (1.51)2098.0
12
Essendon
2 (1.98)2088.4
13
Brisbane Lions
1 (1.31)30104.3
14
Collingwood
1 (1.47)4084.9
15
Hawthorn
1 (1.25)3084.4
16
Richmond
1 (1.20)4082.0
17
North Melbourne
1 (0.99)3074.6
18
West Coast
1 (0.51)3059.3

Round 5

Carlton 79 - 72 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.570877 - 0.429123RealScores: 79.318843 - 72.309765

Geelong 105 - 73 North Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.810029 - 0.189971RealScores: 104.555182 - 72.528714

Gold Coast 79 - 64 Hawthorn
Carrara (QLD)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.657101 - 0.342899RealScores: 79.453892 - 64.448815

Greater Western Sydney 85 - 70 St Kilda
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.657560 - 0.342440RealScores: 85.088936 - 70.040476

Melbourne 85 - 70 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.663836 - 0.336164RealScores: 85.295950 - 69.652175

Port Adelaide 86 - 74 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.631662 - 0.368338RealScores: 86.180170 - 73.550343

West Coast 77 - 97 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.297382 - 0.702618RealScores: 77.455710 - 96.904639

Western Bulldogs 92 - 76 Essendon
Docklands (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.671310 - 0.328690RealScores: 92.477068 - 76.118100

WLD%
1
Sydney
4 (4.24)10145.5
2
Greater Western Sydney
4 (3.94)10133.9
3
Gold Coast
4 (3.59)10115.9
4
Carlton
4 (3.73)10109.1
5
Port Adelaide
3 (3.41)20126.0
6
Melbourne
3 (3.28)30113.0
7
Geelong
3 (3.26)20110.6
8
Fremantle
3 (3.05)20108.4
9
Western Bulldogs
2 (2.49)30104.9
10
Brisbane Lions
2 (1.67)3099.6
11
St Kilda
2 (2.02)3098.8
12
Adelaide
2 (1.95)3096.5
13
Richmond
2 (1.87)4088.3
14
Essendon
2 (2.34)3087.2
15
Hawthorn
2 (1.62)3083.8
16
Collingwood
1 (1.47)4084.9
17
North Melbourne
1 (1.23)4073.5
18
West Coast
1 (0.85)4062.9

Round 6

Adelaide 92 - 68 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.747232 - 0.252768RealScores: 92.226912 - 68.005528

Brisbane Lions 87 - 79 Geelong
Gabba (QLD)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.573100 - 0.426900RealScores: 86.689222 - 79.471855

Carlton 81 - 80 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 80.319793 - 80.309208

Collingwood 86 - 85 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.510618 - 0.489382RealScores: 85.963148 - 84.852768

North Melbourne 78 - 92 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.353573 - 0.646427RealScores: 78.210802 - 92.213090

St Kilda 76 - 78 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.476097 - 0.523903RealScores: 75.836591 - 78.300711

Sydney 78 - 64 Gold Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.649037 - 0.350963RealScores: 77.945136 - 63.698546

West Coast 61 - 99 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.15 wins - 0.85 winsRealProbs: 0.152061 - 0.847939RealScores: 61.390447 - 98.953470

WLD%
1
Sydney
5 (4.86)10141.8
2
Greater Western Sydney
4 (4.44)20128.0
3
Port Adelaide
4 (3.90)20121.0
4
Fremantle
4 (3.85)20116.0
5
Gold Coast
4 (3.96)20109.4
6
Carlton
4 (4.23)20107.5
7
Geelong
4 (3.70)20107.1
8
Melbourne
3 (3.28)30113.0
9
Western Bulldogs
3 (3.01)30104.7
10
Adelaide
3 (2.65)30102.6
11
St Kilda
3 (2.50)3098.4
12
Essendon
3 (2.63)3084.9
13
Brisbane Lions
2 (2.24)40101.2
14
Hawthorn
2 (2.24)4088.9
15
Richmond
2 (1.87)4088.3
16
Collingwood
2 (1.98)4087.5
17
North Melbourne
2 (1.61)4075.2
18
West Coast
1 (1.05)5062.8

Round 7

Essendon 74 - 88 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.361233 - 0.638767RealScores: 74.292345 - 87.580951

Fremantle 82 - 71 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.612316 - 0.387684RealScores: 81.683680 - 70.837613

Geelong 80 - 79 Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.505369 - 0.494631RealScores: 79.971048 - 79.406238

Gold Coast 102 - 55 West Coast
Carrara (QLD)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.901474 - 0.098526RealScores: 101.661678 - 54.938074

Greater Western Sydney 89 - 78 Brisbane Lions
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.607820 - 0.392180RealScores: 88.855186 - 78.422805

Hawthorn 72 - 88 Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.334204 - 0.665796RealScores: 71.713831 - 87.544482

North Melbourne 72 - 96 Adelaide
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.250825 - 0.749175RealScores: 72.038213 - 96.479949

Port Adelaide 89 - 73 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.668737 - 0.331263RealScores: 88.807620 - 72.695710

Richmond 68 - 93 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.245482 - 0.754518RealScores: 67.738870 - 92.792716

WLD%
1
Sydney
6 (5.50)10138.8
2
Greater Western Sydney
5 (5.03)20125.8
3
Port Adelaide
5 (4.55)20121.2
4
Gold Coast
5 (4.82)20118.3
5
Carlton
5 (4.73)20106.3
6
Melbourne
4 (3.99)30116.2
7
Fremantle
4 (4.45)30115.9
8
Geelong
4 (4.20)30106.2
9
Adelaide
3 (3.36)40107.1
10
Western Bulldogs
3 (3.41)40102.1
11
Brisbane Lions
3 (2.64)4099.2
12
St Kilda
3 (2.86)4095.8
13
Collingwood
3 (2.60)4091.2
14
Hawthorn
3 (2.60)4087.9
15
Essendon
3 (3.01)4084.9
16
Richmond
2 (2.15)5086.0
17
North Melbourne
2 (1.90)5075.2
18
West Coast
1 (1.19)6061.6

Round 8

Adelaide 84 - 85 Port Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.490913 - 0.509087RealScores: 83.665835 - 84.617818

Brisbane Lions 74 - 71 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.526795 - 0.473205RealScores: 73.997501 - 71.243403

Carlton 78 - 75 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.530897 - 0.469103RealScores: 78.470585 - 75.308053

Melbourne 86 - 71 Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.651450 - 0.348550RealScores: 85.833446 - 71.360529

Richmond 74 - 79 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.447283 - 0.552717RealScores: 74.141500 - 79.429936

St Kilda 91 - 69 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.722985 - 0.277015RealScores: 90.994223 - 69.429989

Sydney 85 - 78 Greater Western Sydney
S.C.G. (NSW)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.563108 - 0.436892RealScores: 84.510489 - 78.233091

West Coast 77 - 95 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.307246 - 0.692754RealScores: 76.676695 - 95.133418

Western Bulldogs 88 - 77 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.622074 - 0.377926RealScores: 88.285598 - 76.540947

WLD%
1
Sydney
6 (6.06)20134.4
2
Greater Western Sydney
5 (5.48)30121.3
3
Port Adelaide
5 (5.05)30118.5
4
Melbourne
5 (4.62)30116.7
5
Gold Coast
5 (5.29)30115.3
6
Fremantle
5 (4.99)30114.7
7
Carlton
5 (5.26)30106.0
8
Geelong
5 (4.57)30103.1
9
Adelaide
4 (3.86)40105.9
10
Western Bulldogs
4 (4.02)40103.7
11
St Kilda
4 (3.55)4099.7
12
Essendon
4 (3.68)4089.1
13
Brisbane Lions
3 (3.16)5099.7
14
Collingwood
3 (3.07)5091.8
15
Hawthorn
3 (2.99)5087.8
16
Richmond
3 (2.61)5086.9
17
North Melbourne
2 (2.21)6075.3
18
West Coast
2 (1.53)6063.7

Round 9

Adelaide 83 - 75 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.589019 - 0.410981RealScores: 83.387485 - 74.689069

Carlton 69 - 80 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.377442 - 0.622558RealScores: 68.558473 - 80.347754

Collingwood 109 - 62 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.904202 - 0.095798RealScores: 108.959634 - 61.721812

Essendon 76 - 94 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.313908 - 0.686092RealScores: 76.376881 - 94.173750

Fremantle 73 - 74 Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.489434 - 0.510566RealScores: 72.803398 - 73.789292

Geelong 93 - 84 Port Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.588558 - 0.411442RealScores: 92.772896 - 84.117072

Gold Coast 91 - 64 North Melbourne
Marrara Oval (NT)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.768161 - 0.231839RealScores: 90.847004 - 64.187205

Hawthorn 73 - 77 St Kilda
York Park (TAS)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.461897 - 0.538103RealScores: 72.953441 - 76.717451

Richmond 79 - 92 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.361426 - 0.638574RealScores: 78.722748 - 91.993374

WLD%
1
Sydney
7 (6.56)20130.6
2
Greater Western Sydney
6 (6.14)30121.5
3
Gold Coast
6 (6.02)30118.1
4
Carlton
6 (5.65)30103.7
5
Melbourne
5 (5.23)40116.7
6
Port Adelaide
5 (5.47)40114.9
7
Fremantle
5 (5.49)40112.9
8
Western Bulldogs
5 (4.64)40105.1
9
Geelong
5 (5.15)40103.9
10
Adelaide
4 (4.44)50106.6
11
St Kilda
4 (4.08)50100.3
12
Collingwood
4 (3.93)5098.7
13
Brisbane Lions
4 (3.59)5098.6
14
Essendon
4 (4.02)5088.2
15
Hawthorn
3 (3.46)6088.5
16
Richmond
3 (2.99)6086.7
17
North Melbourne
2 (2.48)7074.8
18
West Coast
2 (1.67)7062.9

Round 10

Brisbane Lions 96 - 72 Richmond
Gabba (QLD)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.744793 - 0.255207RealScores: 96.149038 - 72.202611

Collingwood 80 - 75 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.558472 - 0.441528RealScores: 80.207109 - 74.511647

Essendon 92 - 81 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.618649 - 0.381351RealScores: 92.207832 - 80.778723

Gold Coast 75 - 72 Geelong
Marrara Oval (NT)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.531325 - 0.468675RealScores: 75.081724 - 72.171734

Greater Western Sydney 93 - 77 Western Bulldogs
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.662274 - 0.337726RealScores: 92.906177 - 77.410948

Port Adelaide 98 - 75 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.731859 - 0.268141RealScores: 97.691448 - 75.173736

St Kilda 72 - 67 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.556096 - 0.443904RealScores: 72.073523 - 66.625199

Sydney 86 - 68 Carlton
S.C.G. (NSW)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.687986 - 0.312014RealScores: 85.778782 - 67.795069

West Coast 63 - 108 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.11 wins - 0.89 winsRealProbs: 0.110908 - 0.889092RealScores: 63.136168 - 107.586161

WLD%
1
Sydney
7 (7.22)30130.2
2
Greater Western Sydney
7 (6.78)30121.4
3
Gold Coast
7 (6.55)30116.6
4
Melbourne
6 (6.08)40121.5
5
Port Adelaide
6 (6.17)40116.3
6
Fremantle
6 (5.94)40110.9
7
Geelong
6 (5.62)40103.2
8
Carlton
6 (5.99)40101.0
9
Adelaide
5 (4.89)50105.1
10
Western Bulldogs
5 (5.00)50102.6
11
St Kilda
5 (4.63)50101.0
12
Essendon
5 (4.62)5090.5
13
Brisbane Lions
4 (4.29)60101.6
14
Collingwood
4 (4.48)6099.5
15
Hawthorn
4 (3.76)6087.2
16
Richmond
3 (3.28)7085.5
17
North Melbourne
3 (2.88)7076.0
18
West Coast
2 (1.82)8062.5

Round 11

Adelaide 112 - 58 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.94 wins - 0.06 winsRealProbs: 0.936730 - 0.063270RealScores: 111.921607 - 58.157700

Carlton 74 - 66 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.582773 - 0.417227RealScores: 73.714358 - 65.625135

Fremantle 80 - 67 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.638087 - 0.361913RealScores: 79.973429 - 66.748061

Geelong 87 - 82 Greater Western Sydney
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.552008 - 0.447992RealScores: 87.260721 - 82.392692

Hawthorn 77 - 85 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.418834 - 0.581166RealScores: 77.236572 - 85.154729

Melbourne 81 - 63 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.684943 - 0.315057RealScores: 80.802560 - 63.118674

North Melbourne 79 - 108 Port Adelaide
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.21 wins - 0.79 winsRealProbs: 0.211157 - 0.788843RealScores: 78.507544 - 107.730008

Richmond 86 - 82 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.535468 - 0.464532RealScores: 85.576084 - 82.395562

Western Bulldogs 78 - 85 Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.430737 - 0.569263RealScores: 78.088463 - 84.749514

WLD%
1
Sydney
8 (7.78)30128.0
2
Melbourne
7 (6.73)40122.0
3
Greater Western Sydney
7 (7.23)40118.7
4
Port Adelaide
7 (6.92)40118.2
5
Gold Coast
7 (6.97)40113.9
6
Fremantle
7 (6.56)40111.6
7
Carlton
7 (6.56)40101.8
8
Adelaide
6 (5.78)50111.4
9
Geelong
6 (6.17)50103.4
10
Brisbane Lions
5 (4.87)60102.4
11
Western Bulldogs
5 (5.44)60101.6
12
St Kilda
5 (4.97)6098.8
13
Collingwood
5 (4.86)6098.1
14
Essendon
5 (5.09)6091.0
15
Hawthorn
4 (4.19)7087.5
16
Richmond
4 (3.80)7087.0
17
North Melbourne
3 (3.13)8075.7
18
West Coast
2 (1.93)9061.5

Round 12

Collingwood 80 - 83 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.465550 - 0.534450RealScores: 80.053861 - 82.995355

Geelong 98 - 72 Richmond
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.760625 - 0.239375RealScores: 98.127974 - 72.363078

Gold Coast 85 - 62 Essendon
Carrara (QLD)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.737154 - 0.262846RealScores: 85.224587 - 62.127786

Hawthorn 76 - 80 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.454839 - 0.545161RealScores: 76.251271 - 80.276686

Melbourne 78 - 64 Fremantle
Traeger Park (NT)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.647240 - 0.352760RealScores: 78.108974 - 64.030639

Port Adelaide 91 - 77 Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.649373 - 0.350627RealScores: 90.830676 - 76.552613

West Coast 67 - 94 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.23 wins - 0.77 winsRealProbs: 0.234053 - 0.765947RealScores: 67.333338 - 93.728149

WLD%
1
Sydney
8 (7.78)30128.0
2
Port Adelaide
8 (7.55)40118.2
3
Gold Coast
8 (7.68)40115.7
4
Melbourne
7 (7.36)50122.0
5
Greater Western Sydney
7 (7.23)40118.7
6
Fremantle
7 (6.93)50109.0
7
Geelong
7 (6.89)50105.9
8
Carlton
7 (6.93)50100.1
9
Adelaide
6 (6.32)60110.9
10
Western Bulldogs
6 (5.96)60101.8
11
St Kilda
6 (5.70)60101.8
12
Brisbane Lions
5 (4.87)60102.4
13
Collingwood
5 (5.34)7098.0
14
Essendon
5 (5.39)7089.6
15
Hawthorn
5 (4.66)7088.1
16
Richmond
4 (4.08)8085.8
17
North Melbourne
3 (3.13)8075.7
18
West Coast
2 (2.20)10062.2

Round 13

Adelaide 94 - 68 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.759239 - 0.240761RealScores: 93.914838 - 68.312475

Collingwood 69 - 83 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.349036 - 0.650964RealScores: 68.864396 - 83.291659

Essendon 72 - 87 Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.333177 - 0.666823RealScores: 71.542681 - 87.471381

Hawthorn 75 - 92 Greater Western Sydney
York Park (TAS)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.323120 - 0.676880RealScores: 74.692363 - 91.589248

St Kilda 69 - 66 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.539834 - 0.460166RealScores: 68.901103 - 65.543489

Sydney 90 - 72 Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.683685 - 0.316315RealScores: 89.845883 - 72.285501

West Coast 83 - 94 North Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.391263 - 0.608737RealScores: 83.339208 - 93.856002

Western Bulldogs 85 - 82 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.542296 - 0.457704RealScores: 85.160268 - 81.554085

WLD%
1
Sydney
8 (8.44)40127.6
2
Melbourne
8 (7.99)50121.9
3
Greater Western Sydney
8 (7.89)40119.0
4
Port Adelaide
8 (7.55)40118.2
5
Gold Coast
8 (8.15)50114.0
6
Carlton
8 (7.58)50101.7
7
Adelaide
7 (7.04)60112.8
8
Fremantle
7 (6.93)50109.0
9
Geelong
7 (7.23)60103.7
10
St Kilda
6 (6.23)70102.0
11
Western Bulldogs
6 (6.49)70102.0
12
Collingwood
6 (5.71)7096.8
13
Essendon
6 (5.75)7089.0
14
Brisbane Lions
5 (5.34)70101.8
15
Hawthorn
5 (5.00)8087.6
16
Richmond
4 (4.36)9084.8
17
North Melbourne
4 (3.72)8078.4
18
West Coast
3 (2.60)10064.1

Round 14

Adelaide 78 - 77 Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.509293 - 0.490707RealScores: 77.222734 - 77.004880

Brisbane Lions 83 - 69 St Kilda
Gabba (QLD)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.645905 - 0.354095RealScores: 82.833197 - 68.879688

Greater Western Sydney 96 - 82 Port Adelaide
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.639169 - 0.360831RealScores: 95.705887 - 82.379990

North Melbourne 74 - 96 Collingwood
Docklands (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.265135 - 0.734865RealScores: 73.514813 - 96.360253

Richmond 80 - 85 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.448368 - 0.551632RealScores: 80.267687 - 84.700586

Western Bulldogs 81 - 72 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.595138 - 0.404862RealScores: 80.744058 - 71.777235

WLD%
1
Sydney
9 (8.94)40125.3
2
Greater Western Sydney
9 (8.51)40118.7
3
Melbourne
8 (7.99)50121.9
4
Port Adelaide
8 (7.93)50115.3
5
Gold Coast
8 (8.15)50114.0
6
Adelaide
8 (7.54)60111.9
7
Carlton
8 (7.58)50101.7
8
Fremantle
7 (7.35)60107.2
9
Geelong
7 (7.23)60103.7
10
Western Bulldogs
7 (7.07)70102.7
11
St Kilda
7 (6.60)70100.5
12
Brisbane Lions
6 (5.96)70103.0
13
Collingwood
6 (6.41)8099.0
14
Essendon
6 (5.75)7089.0
15
Hawthorn
6 (5.54)8088.8
16
Richmond
5 (4.82)9085.4
17
North Melbourne
4 (4.02)9078.2
18
West Coast
3 (2.60)10064.1

Round 15

Carlton 81 - 79 Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.530491 - 0.469509RealScores: 80.788055 - 78.589230

Essendon 104 - 68 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.839468 - 0.160532RealScores: 104.036732 - 67.773381

Fremantle 72 - 61 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.612731 - 0.387269RealScores: 71.849818 - 61.119049

Greater Western Sydney 80 - 83 Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.464580 - 0.535420RealScores: 80.027214 - 82.716365

Melbourne 105 - 62 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.88 wins - 0.12 winsRealProbs: 0.881465 - 0.118535RealScores: 105.349986 - 62.252089

Port Adelaide 92 - 82 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.605837 - 0.394163RealScores: 92.228421 - 82.243903

WLD%
1
Melbourne
9 (8.84)50125.0
2
Sydney
9 (9.46)50123.5
3
Greater Western Sydney
9 (8.99)50117.1
4
Port Adelaide
9 (8.52)50115.1
5
Gold Coast
9 (8.55)50111.9
6
Adelaide
8 (7.54)60111.9
7
Fremantle
8 (7.95)60107.9
8
Geelong
8 (7.72)60103.2
9
Carlton
8 (8.09)60101.8
10
Western Bulldogs
7 (7.07)70102.7
11
St Kilda
7 (6.60)70100.5
12
Essendon
7 (6.55)7092.6
13
Brisbane Lions
6 (6.37)80101.9
14
Collingwood
6 (6.41)8099.0
15
Hawthorn
6 (5.54)8088.8
16
Richmond
5 (4.82)9085.4
17
North Melbourne
4 (4.18)10076.7
18
West Coast
3 (2.80)11064.1

Round 16

Adelaide 83 - 79 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.547199 - 0.452801RealScores: 82.578118 - 78.811781

Brisbane Lions 76 - 79 Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.454526 - 0.545474RealScores: 75.677587 - 79.270538

Geelong 94 - 75 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.694511 - 0.305489RealScores: 93.512341 - 74.880311

Gold Coast 77 - 65 Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.621190 - 0.378810RealScores: 76.861374 - 65.335568

North Melbourne 75 - 102 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.23 wins - 0.77 winsRealProbs: 0.225548 - 0.774452RealScores: 74.852092 - 102.274331

Richmond 73 - 88 Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.342851 - 0.657149RealScores: 73.002254 - 88.011830

St Kilda 81 - 80 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.516387 - 0.483613RealScores: 81.108462 - 80.394868

Sydney 83 - 64 Fremantle
S.C.G. (NSW)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.701559 - 0.298441RealScores: 82.967121 - 63.625569

West Coast 73 - 97 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.252786 - 0.747214RealScores: 73.018732 - 97.238130

WLD%
1
Sydney
10 (10.13)50124.0
2
Melbourne
9 (9.36)60123.5
3
Greater Western Sydney
9 (9.46)60115.6
4
Port Adelaide
9 (9.02)60114.0
5
Gold Coast
9 (9.16)60112.2
6
Carlton
9 (8.73)60103.0
7
Adelaide
8 (8.07)70111.3
8
Fremantle
8 (8.27)70105.5
9
Western Bulldogs
8 (7.81)70104.8
10
Geelong
8 (8.38)70104.6
11
Brisbane Lions
7 (6.84)80101.5
12
St Kilda
7 (7.10)80100.6
13
Collingwood
7 (6.80)8098.1
14
Essendon
7 (6.88)8091.7
15
Hawthorn
6 (6.25)9091.3
16
Richmond
5 (5.18)10085.3
17
North Melbourne
4 (4.44)11076.5
18
West Coast
3 (3.09)12064.8

Round 17

Brisbane Lions 83 - 75 Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.591064 - 0.408936RealScores: 83.126338 - 74.950216

Collingwood 89 - 73 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.669322 - 0.330678RealScores: 89.020645 - 72.852650

Fremantle 88 - 65 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.735758 - 0.264242RealScores: 88.257398 - 65.314038

Geelong 93 - 71 Hawthorn
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.722699 - 0.277301RealScores: 93.022375 - 71.488503

Greater Western Sydney 88 - 73 Carlton
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.659785 - 0.340215RealScores: 87.944012 - 72.684989

Melbourne 118 - 52 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.99 wins - 0.01 winsRealProbs: 0.990000 - 0.010000RealScores: 118.447103 - 52.275226

North Melbourne 68 - 88 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.292002 - 0.707998RealScores: 67.517829 - 87.516380

Port Adelaide 97 - 81 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.666646 - 0.333354RealScores: 96.694180 - 80.782387

St Kilda 70 - 79 Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.400331 - 0.599669RealScores: 69.665743 - 78.752354

WLD%
1
Sydney
11 (10.72)50123.3
2
Melbourne
10 (10.31)60128.4
3
Greater Western Sydney
10 (10.09)60115.9
4
Port Adelaide
10 (9.66)60114.4
5
Gold Coast
10 (9.83)60113.3
6
Adelaide
9 (8.50)70109.9
7
Fremantle
9 (8.98)70107.2
8
Geelong
9 (9.07)70106.0
9
Carlton
9 (9.09)70101.5
10
Western Bulldogs
8 (8.17)80103.2
11
St Kilda
8 (7.52)8099.8
12
Brisbane Lions
7 (7.42)90102.0
13
Collingwood
7 (7.45)9099.5
14
Essendon
7 (7.23)9091.1
15
Hawthorn
7 (6.57)9090.3
16
Richmond
5 (5.48)11084.6
17
North Melbourne
5 (4.77)11076.5
18
West Coast
3 (3.14)13063.4

Round 18

Adelaide 81 - 65 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.669860 - 0.330140RealScores: 81.248718 - 65.029066

Collingwood 81 - 82 Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.480869 - 0.519131RealScores: 80.907389 - 81.713264

Gold Coast 81 - 74 Port Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.580129 - 0.419871RealScores: 80.775269 - 73.844804

Hawthorn 71 - 77 Fremantle
York Park (TAS)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.427799 - 0.572201RealScores: 71.091559 - 77.203416

Melbourne 95 - 64 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.798565 - 0.201435RealScores: 94.565255 - 64.079759

Richmond 78 - 95 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.323287 - 0.676713RealScores: 77.868917 - 94.749629

Sydney 110 - 62 North Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.91 wins - 0.09 winsRealProbs: 0.908609 - 0.091391RealScores: 110.410777 - 62.331568

West Coast 68 - 108 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.14 wins - 0.86 winsRealProbs: 0.137753 - 0.862247RealScores: 68.454255 - 108.300648

Western Bulldogs 81 - 79 Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.525693 - 0.474307RealScores: 80.645742 - 79.199254

WLD%
1
Sydney
12 (11.58)50126.1
2
Melbourne
11 (11.07)60129.4
3
Greater Western Sydney
11 (10.74)60116.2
4
Gold Coast
10 (10.39)70113.1
5
Port Adelaide
10 (10.10)70113.0
6
Fremantle
10 (9.53)70107.3
7
Geelong
10 (9.57)70105.7
8
Carlton
10 (9.59)70101.3
9
Adelaide
9 (9.15)80110.6
10
Western Bulldogs
9 (8.67)80103.1
11
Brisbane Lions
8 (8.24)90104.9
12
Collingwood
8 (7.95)9099.4
13
St Kilda
8 (7.88)9098.5
14
Hawthorn
7 (7.01)10090.4
15
Essendon
7 (7.48)10089.6
16
Richmond
6 (5.83)11084.4
17
North Melbourne
5 (4.90)12075.2
18
West Coast
3 (3.32)14063.4

Round 19

Brisbane Lions 78 - 81 Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.456357 - 0.543643RealScores: 78.343336 - 81.477407

Carlton 97 - 70 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.776900 - 0.223100RealScores: 97.393372 - 69.670518

Essendon 75 - 85 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.384576 - 0.615424RealScores: 74.836418 - 85.396022

Fremantle 70 - 72 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.465642 - 0.534358RealScores: 69.962470 - 72.177143

Geelong 91 - 78 Western Bulldogs
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.631190 - 0.368810RealScores: 90.630923 - 78.356407

Greater Western Sydney 80 - 68 Gold Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.635244 - 0.364756RealScores: 80.485062 - 67.764110

Hawthorn 75 - 83 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.408906 - 0.591094RealScores: 75.205071 - 83.180739

Port Adelaide 104 - 75 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.789535 - 0.210465RealScores: 104.257704 - 74.946578

St Kilda 104 - 57 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.904075 - 0.095925RealScores: 104.137676 - 56.923811

WLD%
1
Melbourne
12 (11.58)60128.0
2
Sydney
12 (12.10)60124.7
3
Greater Western Sydney
11 (11.36)70116.4
4
Port Adelaide
11 (10.85)70114.4
5
Gold Coast
11 (10.78)70111.2
6
Adelaide
10 (9.74)80110.8
7
Fremantle
10 (10.01)80106.7
8
Geelong
10 (10.18)80106.3
9
Carlton
10 (10.32)80103.2
10
Brisbane Lions
9 (8.72)90104.4
11
St Kilda
9 (8.74)90102.1
12
Western Bulldogs
9 (9.06)90102.1
13
Collingwood
9 (8.52)90100.0
14
Essendon
8 (7.88)10089.5
15
Hawthorn
7 (7.45)11090.4
16
Richmond
6 (6.08)12083.6
17
North Melbourne
5 (5.16)13075.0
18
West Coast
3 (3.46)15062.9

Round 20

Adelaide 89 - 67 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.723763 - 0.276237RealScores: 89.087459 - 67.440498

Carlton 86 - 81 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.561866 - 0.438134RealScores: 86.130654 - 81.252635

Collingwood 90 - 74 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.660906 - 0.339094RealScores: 89.648625 - 74.283312

Fremantle 102 - 58 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.89 wins - 0.11 winsRealProbs: 0.889009 - 0.110991RealScores: 102.389472 - 57.954445

Gold Coast 73 - 72 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.526213 - 0.473787RealScores: 73.289144 - 71.951760

Melbourne 86 - 72 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.653229 - 0.346771RealScores: 86.188399 - 71.570642

North Melbourne 75 - 102 Geelong
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.223216 - 0.776784RealScores: 74.687673 - 102.396224

St Kilda 84 - 69 Essendon
Docklands (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.648799 - 0.351201RealScores: 83.522199 - 69.402191

Sydney 92 - 71 Western Bulldogs
S.C.G. (NSW)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.711590 - 0.288410RealScores: 91.603516 - 71.234462

WLD%
1
Sydney
13 (12.78)60124.9
2
Melbourne
12 (12.21)70127.5
3
Greater Western Sydney
12 (11.73)70114.4
4
Port Adelaide
11 (11.31)80113.2
5
Gold Coast
11 (11.28)80110.7
6
Fremantle
11 (10.86)80109.7
7
Geelong
11 (10.92)80107.8
8
Carlton
11 (10.86)80103.4
9
Adelaide
10 (10.43)90111.9
10
Brisbane Lions
9 (9.22)100104.1
11
St Kilda
9 (9.36)100103.0
12
Collingwood
9 (9.15)100101.0
13
Western Bulldogs
9 (9.39)100100.7
14
Hawthorn
8 (7.76)11089.6
15
Essendon
8 (8.26)11089.2
16
Richmond
6 (6.45)13083.6
17
North Melbourne
5 (5.43)14074.9
18
West Coast
4 (3.61)15062.6

Round 21

Collingwood 76 - 77 Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.474920 - 0.525080RealScores: 76.312711 - 77.465926

Essendon 72 - 79 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.414579 - 0.585421RealScores: 72.227682 - 79.431458

Geelong 87 - 74 Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.637979 - 0.362021RealScores: 86.536015 - 73.721228

Greater Western Sydney 96 - 70 Hawthorn
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.758013 - 0.241987RealScores: 95.870455 - 70.411156

North Melbourne 83 - 93 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.385480 - 0.614520RealScores: 82.558720 - 92.825738

Port Adelaide 85 - 86 Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.484354 - 0.515646RealScores: 84.955258 - 85.195584

St Kilda 76 - 75 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.517516 - 0.482484RealScores: 76.066742 - 75.646143

West Coast 62 - 95 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.18 wins - 0.82 winsRealProbs: 0.184961 - 0.815039RealScores: 61.940691 - 94.659061

Western Bulldogs 73 - 85 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.371128 - 0.628872RealScores: 73.036013 - 84.852982

WLD%
1
Melbourne
13 (12.81)70126.9
2
Sydney
13 (13.28)70123.5
3
Greater Western Sydney
12 (12.44)80115.4
4
Gold Coast
12 (12.05)80112.6
5
Port Adelaide
12 (11.81)80112.5
6
Geelong
12 (11.53)80108.2
7
Adelaide
11 (10.81)90110.3
8
Fremantle
11 (11.42)90109.7
9
Carlton
11 (11.36)90103.3
10
Brisbane Lions
10 (9.72)100103.9
11
St Kilda
10 (9.86)100102.9
12
Collingwood
10 (9.65)100100.9
13
Western Bulldogs
10 (9.79)10099.9
14
Essendon
9 (8.70)11089.2
15
Hawthorn
8 (8.04)12088.7
16
Richmond
7 (7.04)13084.9
17
North Melbourne
6 (5.84)14075.5
18
West Coast
4 (3.84)16062.7

Round 22

Adelaide 87 - 73 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.651433 - 0.348567RealScores: 87.490613 - 73.280898

Brisbane Lions 85 - 82 Greater Western Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.540348 - 0.459652RealScores: 84.926652 - 82.351339

Carlton 84 - 72 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.635175 - 0.364825RealScores: 83.933854 - 71.523404

Essendon 69 - 79 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.387456 - 0.612544RealScores: 68.693305 - 78.659068

Fremantle 81 - 71 Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.610325 - 0.389675RealScores: 80.907432 - 71.177821

Melbourne 92 - 73 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.700734 - 0.299266RealScores: 92.110876 - 72.852958

North Melbourne 101 - 76 West Coast
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.750372 - 0.249628RealScores: 100.886628 - 76.308582

Richmond 71 - 84 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.362055 - 0.637945RealScores: 71.080939 - 83.795286

Sydney 90 - 67 Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.735682 - 0.264318RealScores: 89.924503 - 66.989481

WLD%
1
Sydney
14 (13.98)70124.0
2
Melbourne
13 (13.48)80126.9
3
Greater Western Sydney
13 (12.93)80114.5
4
Gold Coast
13 (12.63)80112.7
5
Port Adelaide
12 (12.15)90110.7
6
Fremantle
12 (12.00)90109.9
7
Geelong
12 (11.95)90107.3
8
Carlton
12 (11.97)90103.9
9
Adelaide
11 (11.44)100110.7
10
Brisbane Lions
10 (10.23)110103.8
11
St Kilda
10 (10.47)110103.5
12
Collingwood
10 (9.95)11099.5
13
Western Bulldogs
10 (10.16)11099.1
14
Essendon
9 (9.12)12089.2
15
Hawthorn
8 (8.44)13088.5
16
Richmond
7 (7.43)14084.9
17
North Melbourne
7 (6.55)14077.7
18
West Coast
4 (4.13)17063.3

Round 23

Collingwood 82 - 79 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.542349 - 0.457651RealScores: 81.581168 - 78.878937

Essendon 70 - 93 Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.265875 - 0.734125RealScores: 70.392052 - 93.156548

Gold Coast 67 - 70 Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.449311 - 0.550689RealScores: 66.899323 - 70.426399

Greater Western Sydney 85 - 68 Fremantle
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.671519 - 0.328481RealScores: 84.844088 - 68.465031

Hawthorn 86 - 79 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.576847 - 0.423153RealScores: 85.564747 - 79.403526

Port Adelaide 85 - 83 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.538136 - 0.461864RealScores: 85.285898 - 82.997755

St Kilda 76 - 77 Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.478303 - 0.521697RealScores: 76.529075 - 77.218054

West Coast 67 - 102 Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.17 wins - 0.83 winsRealProbs: 0.170424 - 0.829576RealScores: 66.729634 - 101.522207

Western Bulldogs 104 - 74 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.794231 - 0.205769RealScores: 103.522009 - 73.604414

WLD%
1
Sydney
15 (14.67)70124.3
2
Melbourne
14 (13.99)80126.0
3
Greater Western Sydney
14 (13.57)80114.8
4
Gold Coast
13 (13.12)90111.8
5
Port Adelaide
13 (12.65)90110.4
6
Carlton
13 (12.75)90105.8
7
Adelaide
12 (11.93)100110.0
8
Fremantle
12 (12.36)100108.3
9
Geelong
12 (12.45)100107.0
10
Brisbane Lions
11 (10.72)110103.5
11
St Kilda
11 (10.97)110103.3
12
Western Bulldogs
11 (10.91)110100.8
13
Collingwood
10 (10.46)12099.7
14
Hawthorn
9 (8.98)13089.3
15
Essendon
9 (9.43)13088.5
16
Richmond
8 (7.88)14085.2
17
North Melbourne
7 (6.80)15077.3
18
West Coast
4 (4.35)18063.4

Round 24

Brisbane Lions 97 - 69 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.774721 - 0.225279RealScores: 96.872887 - 69.417784

Carlton 75 - 71 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.558783 - 0.441217RealScores: 74.818781 - 70.554951

Fremantle 84 - 76 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.601958 - 0.398042RealScores: 84.206095 - 75.524418

Geelong 122 - 57 West Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.99 wins - 0.01 winsRealProbs: 0.987361 - 0.012639RealScores: 122.096380 - 56.593794

Hawthorn 95 - 76 North Melbourne
York Park (TAS)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.699156 - 0.300844RealScores: 94.761233 - 75.662659

Melbourne 85 - 67 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.680782 - 0.319218RealScores: 84.716274 - 67.439781

Richmond 71 - 78 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.412068 - 0.587932RealScores: 70.978057 - 78.201531

Sydney 86 - 68 Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.694018 - 0.305982RealScores: 86.405208 - 67.822406

Western Bulldogs 84 - 86 Greater Western Sydney
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.462857 - 0.537143RealScores: 84.096333 - 86.220792

WLD%
1
Melbourne
15 (14.64)80126.0
2
Sydney
15 (15.33)80124.5
3
Greater Western Sydney
14 (14.08)90114.3
4
Gold Coast
14 (13.67)90111.8
5
Geelong
13 (13.39)100110.4
6
Port Adelaide
13 (13.09)100109.4
7
Fremantle
13 (12.93)100108.5
8
Carlton
13 (13.27)100105.8
9
Adelaide
12 (12.27)110108.5
10
Brisbane Lions
11 (11.44)120104.9
11
St Kilda
11 (11.45)120102.9
12
Western Bulldogs
11 (11.41)120100.6
13
Collingwood
11 (10.82)12098.8
14
Hawthorn
10 (9.64)13090.7
15
Essendon
10 (9.70)13087.7
16
Richmond
8 (8.33)15085.5
17
North Melbourne
7 (7.14)16077.5
18
West Coast
4 (4.41)19062.5

FINALS: WEEK 1

Melbourne 78 - 59 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)

Sydney 85 - 78 Greater Western Sydney
S.C.G. (NSW)

Geelong 80 - 79 Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)

Port Adelaide 88 - 72 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Gold Coast 77 - 70 Geelong
Gabba (QLD)

Greater Western Sydney 96 - 82 Port Adelaide
Stadium Australia (NSW)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Melbourne 86 - 72 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Sydney 79 - 63 Gold Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)

2024 AFL GRAND FINAL

Sydney 73 - 78 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE7

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

Flagpole Height
1Melbourne53.1
2Sydney52.7
3Greater Western Sydney51.2
4Gold Coast49.8
5Brisbane Lions49.4
6Port Adelaide49.4
7Adelaide49.1
8Geelong49.0
9Carlton48.3
10Fremantle48.3
11Western Bulldogs48.2
12Collingwood47.3
13St Kilda47.2
14Hawthorn45.2
15Richmond43.5
16Essendon43.2
17North Melbourne40.7
18West Coast35.6

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

AttackDefenceCombined
1Melbourne55.564.760.1
2Sydney57.162.559.8
3Greater Western Sydney58.258.058.1
4Gold Coast48.764.356.5
5Brisbane Lions55.057.056.0
6Port Adelaide58.553.556.0
7Adelaide52.658.755.7
8Geelong55.255.755.5
9Carlton51.458.054.7
10Fremantle48.960.554.7
11Western Bulldogs54.554.754.6
12Collingwood51.555.853.7
13St Kilda48.458.753.5
14Hawthorn49.752.951.3
15Richmond49.449.349.4
16Essendon48.449.649.0
17North Melbourne47.444.846.1
18West Coast40.540.240.4

MOST LIKELY GRAND FINALS

Greater Western Sydney def Adelaide1.7%
Brisbane Lions def Adelaide1.6%
Adelaide def Brisbane Lions1.6%
Adelaide def Greater Western Sydney1.6%
Melbourne def Adelaide1.6%
Geelong def Adelaide1.6%
Geelong def Brisbane Lions1.5%
Greater Western Sydney def Brisbane Lions1.5%
Geelong def Greater Western Sydney1.4%
Brisbane Lions def Greater Western Sydney1.4%
Adelaide def Geelong1.4%
Melbourne def Greater Western Sydney1.4%
Brisbane Lions def Geelong1.3%
Adelaide def Melbourne1.3%
Melbourne def Brisbane Lions1.3%
Melbourne def Geelong1.3%
Greater Western Sydney def Melbourne1.3%
Greater Western Sydney def Geelong1.2%
Geelong def Melbourne1.2%
Adelaide def Fremantle1.2%

EDIT SQUIGGLE

Oooh past

Oooh future

TODO:

(1) Allow for updating of FLAGPOLE

(2) Allow for updating of TOWER

(3) Allow for updating of TIPS

(4) Allow for modification of future games

(5) Allow for modification of past games

HOME TEAM:

vs

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