Chart Size
Year
Squiggle

INFO

What Squiggles areHow to play through a seasonPredictionFAQThe ModelFlagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move up; when they score less, they move move down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Fri May 24 06:02:28 2024 (R11)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

Minor PremierTop 4Top 8Bottom 4Spoon

MODE LADDER

LikelihoodIf not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2024 ROUND 11 TIPS

Adelaide 87 - 67 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA: Adelaide +8.4 pts
Ins/Outs: West Coast +10.3 pts

Carlton 88 - 80 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: Carlton +11.4 pts
Ins/Outs: Gold Coast +3.2 pts

Fremantle 78 - 61 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: Fremantle +12.1 pts
Ins/Outs: Fremantle +7.7 pts

Geelong 98 - 75 Greater Western Sydney
Kardinia Park (Gee)
HGA: Geelong +12.6 pts
Ins/Outs: Geelong +6.8 pts

Hawthorn 75 - 79 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: Hawthorn +6.4 pts
Ins/Outs: Hawthorn +11.9 pts

Melbourne 76 - 62 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: Melbourne +2.8 pts
Ins/Outs: St Kilda +4.1 pts

North Melbourne 68 - 118 Port Adelaide
Bellerive Oval (TAS)
HGA: North Melbourne +2.2 pts
Ins/Outs: Port Adelaide +5.0 pts

Richmond 69 - 88 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: Richmond +1.9 pts
Ins/Outs: Richmond +2.9 pts

Western Bulldogs 83 - 76 Sydney
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: Western Bulldogs +7.9 pts
Ins/Outs: Western Bulldogs +2.2 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE7
Tips after Round 10: 57

History...

In 2024, algorithm SQUIGGLE7 correctly tipped 57 games at an accuracy of 62.64%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1


Collingwood (76) defeated Richmond (46) at Princes Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 30)
Carlton (63) lost to Melbourne (101) at Princes Park (VIC) [Melbourne by 38)
Greater Western Sydney (105) defeated Gold Coast (61) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 44)
Sydney (56) lost to Brisbane Lions (81) at Blacktown (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 25)
Geelong (83) defeated Essendon (71) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 12)
Port Adelaide (92) defeated Fremantle (53) at Alberton Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 39)
Adelaide (117) defeated West Coast (50) at John Cain Arena (VIC) [Adelaide by 67)
Hawthorn (62) lost to Western Bulldogs (119) at York Park (TAS) [Western Bulldogs by 57)
St Kilda (84) defeated North Melbourne (65) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 19)

Round 0


Brisbane Lions (85) lost to Carlton (86) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 1) Brisbane Lions by 13
Gold Coast (99) defeated Richmond (60) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 39) Gold Coast by 6
Greater Western Sydney (114) defeated Collingwood (82) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 9
Sydney (86) defeated Melbourne (64) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 22) Melbourne by 2

Round 1


Carlton (86) defeated Richmond (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 5) Carlton by 0
Collingwood (69) lost to Sydney (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 33) Collingwood by 8
Essendon (107) defeated Hawthorn (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 24) Essendon by 0
Fremantle (93) defeated Brisbane Lions (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 23) Brisbane Lions by 7
Geelong (76) defeated St Kilda (68) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 8) Geelong by 20
Gold Coast (60) defeated Adelaide (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 6) Adelaide by 0
Greater Western Sydney (121) defeated North Melbourne (82) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 39) Greater Western Sydney by 51
Melbourne (109) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 45) Melbourne by 15
Port Adelaide (120) defeated West Coast (70) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 50) Port Adelaide by 52

Round 2


Adelaide (77) lost to Geelong (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 19) Adelaide by 18
Hawthorn (38) lost to Melbourne (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 55) Melbourne by 21
North Melbourne (76) lost to Fremantle (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 26) Fremantle by 10
Richmond (92) lost to Port Adelaide (122) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 30) Port Adelaide by 16
St Kilda (94) defeated Collingwood (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 15) Collingwood by 0
Sydney (131) defeated Essendon (101) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 30) Sydney by 26
West Coast (43) lost to Greater Western Sydney (108) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Greater Western Sydney by 65) Greater Western Sydney by 42
Western Bulldogs (115) defeated Gold Coast (67) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 48) Western Bulldogs by 8

Round 3


Brisbane Lions (72) lost to Collingwood (92) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 20) Brisbane Lions by 18
Essendon (71) defeated St Kilda (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 4) St Kilda by 5
Fremantle (69) defeated Adelaide (34) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 35) Fremantle by 15
Hawthorn (70) lost to Geelong (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 36) Geelong by 14
North Melbourne (81) lost to Carlton (137) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 56) Carlton by 23
Port Adelaide (89) lost to Melbourne (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 7) Port Adelaide by 0
Richmond (82) defeated Sydney (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 5) Sydney by 20
Western Bulldogs (106) defeated West Coast (30) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 76) Western Bulldogs by 48

Round 4


Adelaide (63) lost to Melbourne (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 15) Melbourne by 15
Brisbane Lions (112) defeated North Melbourne (42) at Norwood Oval (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 70) Brisbane Lions by 21
Collingwood (77) defeated Hawthorn (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 5) Collingwood by 20
Fremantle (63) lost to Carlton (73) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Carlton by 10) Fremantle by 4
Gold Coast (89) lost to Greater Western Sydney (117) at Adelaide Hills (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 28) Greater Western Sydney by 7
Port Adelaide (111) defeated Essendon (42) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 69) Port Adelaide by 25
Richmond (60) lost to St Kilda (67) at Norwood Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 7) St Kilda by 10
West Coast (78) lost to Sydney (104) at Adelaide Hills (SA) [Sydney by 26) Sydney by 49
Western Bulldogs (91) lost to Geelong (95) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 4) Western Bulldogs by 0

Round 5


Carlton (98) lost to Adelaide (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 2) Carlton by 18
Geelong (139) defeated North Melbourne (64) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 75) Geelong by 48
Gold Coast (109) defeated Hawthorn (56) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 53) Gold Coast by 12
Greater Western Sydney (80) defeated St Kilda (79) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 1) Greater Western Sydney by 12
Melbourne (60) lost to Brisbane Lions (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 22) Melbourne by 12
Port Adelaide (66) defeated Fremantle (63) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 3) Port Adelaide by 16
West Coast (109) defeated Richmond (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 39) Richmond by 11
Western Bulldogs (67) lost to Essendon (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 29) Western Bulldogs by 15

Round 6


Adelaide (75) lost to Essendon (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 3) Adelaide by 16
Brisbane Lions (37) lost to Geelong (63) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 26) Brisbane Lions by 4
Carlton (117) defeated Greater Western Sydney (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 19) Carlton by 5
Collingwood (123) defeated Port Adelaide (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 42) Collingwood by 1
North Melbourne (68) lost to Hawthorn (113) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 45) Hawthorn by 13
St Kilda (64) lost to Western Bulldogs (124) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 60) St Kilda by 1
Sydney (110) defeated Gold Coast (57) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 53) Sydney by 10
West Coast (105) defeated Fremantle (68) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 37) Fremantle by 28

Round 7


Essendon (85) drew with Collingwood (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Collingwood by 10
Fremantle (95) defeated Western Bulldogs (71) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 24) Fremantle by 2
Geelong (118) defeated Carlton (105) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 13) Geelong by 11
Gold Coast (112) defeated West Coast (75) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 37) Gold Coast by 31
Greater Western Sydney (113) defeated Brisbane Lions (59) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 54) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Hawthorn (42) lost to Sydney (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 76) Sydney by 12
North Melbourne (81) lost to Adelaide (138) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Adelaide by 57) Adelaide by 24
Port Adelaide (82) defeated St Kilda (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 10) Port Adelaide by 18
Richmond (42) lost to Melbourne (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 43) Melbourne by 27

Round 8


Adelaide (78) defeated Port Adelaide (48) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 30) Port Adelaide by 10
Brisbane Lions (79) defeated Gold Coast (45) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 34) Brisbane Lions by 10
Carlton (79) lost to Collingwood (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 6) Carlton by 15
Melbourne (74) defeated Geelong (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 8) Melbourne by 5
Richmond (49) lost to Fremantle (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 54) Fremantle by 5
St Kilda (103) defeated North Melbourne (65) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 38) St Kilda by 33
Sydney (98) defeated Greater Western Sydney (69) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 29) Greater Western Sydney by 4
West Coast (71) lost to Essendon (77) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Essendon by 6) Essendon by 9
Western Bulldogs (91) lost to Hawthorn (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 7) Western Bulldogs by 19

Round 9


Adelaide (90) drew with Brisbane Lions (90) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [DRAW by 0) Adelaide by 0
Carlton (77) defeated Melbourne (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 1) Melbourne by 10
Collingwood (103) defeated West Coast (37) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 66) Collingwood by 30
Essendon (82) defeated Greater Western Sydney (62) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 20) Greater Western Sydney by 8
Fremantle (39) lost to Sydney (87) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 48) Fremantle by 3
Geelong (95) lost to Port Adelaide (101) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Port Adelaide by 6) Geelong by 16
Gold Coast (120) defeated North Melbourne (52) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 68) Gold Coast by 31
Hawthorn (58) defeated St Kilda (53) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 5) St Kilda by 11
Richmond (42) lost to Western Bulldogs (133) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 91) Western Bulldogs by 11

Round 10


Brisbane Lions (163) defeated Richmond (44) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 119) Brisbane Lions by 39
Collingwood (78) defeated Adelaide (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 4) Collingwood by 21
Essendon (106) defeated North Melbourne (66) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 40) Essendon by 37
Gold Coast (164) defeated Geelong (100) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 64) Geelong by 5
Greater Western Sydney (43) lost to Western Bulldogs (70) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 27) Western Bulldogs by 5
Port Adelaide (80) defeated Hawthorn (79) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 1) Port Adelaide by 29
St Kilda (55) lost to Fremantle (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 17) St Kilda by 3
Sydney (117) defeated Carlton (65) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 52) Sydney by 23
West Coast (105) defeated Melbourne (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 35) Melbourne by 23

Round 11


Western Bulldogs (88) lost to Sydney (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 14) Western Bulldogs by 7

Round 12


Round 13


Round 14


Round 15


Round 16


Round 17


Round 18


Round 19


Round 20


Round 21


Round 22


Round 23


Round 24


Elimination Final


Semi-Final


Preliminary Final


Grand Final

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

90%
10%

SEASON PREDICTOR


Recalculate

Wins%
1
Sydney
17.7137.8%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2
Geelong
15.0117.3%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
3
Port Adelaide
14.0109.1%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
4
Essendon
13.8100.6%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
5
Melbourne
13.6115.7%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
6
Collingwood
13.4107.1%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
7
Carlton
13.3107.2%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
8
Fremantle
13.1110.3%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
9
Gold Coast
12.9109.5%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
10
Western Bulldogs
12.5123.3%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
11
Greater Western Sydney
12.2105.4%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
12
Brisbane Lions
12.1116.1%
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
13
Adelaide
9.9100.4%
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
14
Hawthorn
9.188.0%
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
15
St Kilda
8.993.7%
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
16
West Coast
8.080.8%
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
17
Richmond
5.167.7%
14
15
16
17
18
18
North Melbourne
2.559.0%
16
17
18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 11

Adelaide 87 - 67 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.703218 - 0.296782RealScores: 86.940694 - 67.430727

Carlton 88 - 80 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.580239 - 0.419761RealScores: 88.307039 - 80.487392

Fremantle 78 - 61 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.670780 - 0.329220RealScores: 77.716722 - 61.408732

Geelong 98 - 75 Greater Western Sydney
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.730440 - 0.269560RealScores: 97.524710 - 75.160871

Hawthorn 75 - 79 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.454829 - 0.545171RealScores: 75.044918 - 79.211778

Melbourne 76 - 62 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.649312 - 0.350688RealScores: 75.936555 - 61.664208

North Melbourne 68 - 118 Port Adelaide
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.08 wins - 0.92 winsRealProbs: 0.080097 - 0.919903RealScores: 67.760118 - 118.055558

Richmond 69 - 88 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.305440 - 0.694560RealScores: 69.216382 - 87.853370

WLD%
1
Sydney
10 (10.00)10150.1
2
Essendon
8 (7.68)21105.1
3
Port Adelaide
8 (7.89)30116.0
4
Geelong
8 (7.71)30113.5
5
Melbourne
7 (6.64)40113.9
6
Fremantle
7 (6.66)40113.0
7
Carlton
7 (6.58)40102.7
8
Collingwood
6 (6.34)41105.3
9
Greater Western Sydney
6 (6.29)50111.3
10
Gold Coast
6 (6.42)50110.6
11
Brisbane Lions
5 (4.55)51115.6
12
Western Bulldogs
5 (5.00)60121.3
13
Adelaide
4 (3.68)61103.1
14
St Kilda
3 (3.36)8093.0
15
Hawthorn
3 (3.45)8079.9
16
West Coast
3 (3.32)8077.1
17
Richmond
1 (1.32)10061.1
18
North Melbourne
0 (0.11)11056.9

Round 12

Collingwood 72 - 83 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.383451 - 0.616549RealScores: 72.075305 - 83.311039

Geelong 109 - 65 Richmond
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.89 wins - 0.11 winsRealProbs: 0.885528 - 0.114472RealScores: 108.567505 - 64.753930

Gold Coast 82 - 70 Essendon
Carrara (QLD)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.629123 - 0.370877RealScores: 82.286135 - 69.891004

Hawthorn 76 - 75 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.507938 - 0.492062RealScores: 75.516997 - 75.207976

Melbourne 70 - 63 Fremantle
Traeger Park (NT)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.578838 - 0.421162RealScores: 70.489371 - 62.973098

Port Adelaide 93 - 81 Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.627336 - 0.372664RealScores: 92.824235 - 80.594176

West Coast 72 - 73 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.482933 - 0.517067RealScores: 71.834939 - 73.042544

WLD%
1
Sydney
10 (10.00)10150.1
2
Geelong
9 (8.56)30117.1
3
Port Adelaide
9 (8.51)30115.9
4
Essendon
8 (8.05)31103.4
5
Collingwood
7 (6.73)41103.7
6
Melbourne
7 (7.22)50113.7
7
Gold Coast
7 (7.04)50111.1
8
Fremantle
7 (7.08)50111.0
9
Carlton
7 (6.96)50101.4
10
Western Bulldogs
6 (5.61)60120.8
11
Greater Western Sydney
6 (6.29)50111.3
12
Brisbane Lions
5 (4.55)51115.6
13
Adelaide
4 (4.18)71102.9
14
St Kilda
4 (3.88)8093.7
15
Hawthorn
4 (3.96)8081.4
16
West Coast
4 (3.80)8078.5
17
Richmond
1 (1.47)11060.9
18
North Melbourne
0 (0.11)11056.9

Round 13

Adelaide 98 - 64 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.819455 - 0.180545RealScores: 97.717795 - 64.379992

Collingwood 70 - 73 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.460721 - 0.539279RealScores: 69.780183 - 73.081874

Essendon 77 - 83 Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.432565 - 0.567435RealScores: 77.288538 - 83.470521

Hawthorn 73 - 83 Greater Western Sydney
York Park (TAS)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.394915 - 0.605085RealScores: 72.786284 - 82.963814

St Kilda 71 - 72 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.478381 - 0.521619RealScores: 70.700795 - 72.238842

Sydney 95 - 77 Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.692361 - 0.307639RealScores: 95.224751 - 76.807200

West Coast 100 - 71 North Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.780969 - 0.219031RealScores: 99.504519 - 71.276996

Western Bulldogs 81 - 71 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.610193 - 0.389807RealScores: 81.457926 - 70.807189

WLD%
1
Sydney
11 (10.68)10147.7
2
Port Adelaide
9 (8.51)30115.9
3
Geelong
9 (8.88)40113.9
4
Essendon
8 (8.49)41102.6
5
Melbourne
8 (7.76)50113.0
6
Gold Coast
8 (7.56)50110.5
7
Carlton
8 (7.52)50101.8
8
Collingwood
7 (7.19)51103.1
9
Greater Western Sydney
7 (6.90)50111.5
10
Fremantle
7 (7.08)50111.0
11
Western Bulldogs
6 (6.22)70120.4
12
Brisbane Lions
5 (4.94)61112.9
13
Adelaide
5 (4.97)71106.1
14
West Coast
5 (4.55)8082.3
15
St Kilda
4 (4.36)9094.0
16
Hawthorn
4 (4.36)9081.8
17
Richmond
2 (1.68)11061.3
18
North Melbourne
0 (0.36)12057.9

Round 14

Adelaide 77 - 87 Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.387210 - 0.612790RealScores: 76.521678 - 87.393771

Brisbane Lions 82 - 57 St Kilda
Gabba (QLD)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.750231 - 0.249769RealScores: 82.008084 - 57.446113

Greater Western Sydney 88 - 83 Port Adelaide
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.555854 - 0.444146RealScores: 87.632596 - 82.769233

North Melbourne 63 - 110 Collingwood
Docklands (VIC)0.10 wins - 0.90 winsRealProbs: 0.100594 - 0.899406RealScores: 63.430276 - 109.767263

Richmond 69 - 85 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.338145 - 0.661855RealScores: 69.063806 - 84.519152

Western Bulldogs 82 - 63 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.700639 - 0.299361RealScores: 82.241566 - 62.993189

WLD%
1
Sydney
11 (11.29)20144.9
2
Port Adelaide
9 (8.96)40114.1
3
Geelong
9 (8.88)40113.9
4
Collingwood
8 (8.06)51107.1
5
Essendon
8 (8.49)41102.6
6
Melbourne
8 (7.76)50113.0
7
Gold Coast
8 (7.56)50110.5
8
Carlton
8 (7.52)50101.8
9
Western Bulldogs
7 (6.90)70121.0
10
Greater Western Sydney
7 (7.45)60111.1
11
Fremantle
7 (7.39)60107.8
12
Brisbane Lions
6 (5.66)61114.8
13
Adelaide
5 (5.36)81104.5
14
St Kilda
5 (4.63)9092.1
15
Hawthorn
5 (5.01)9084.1
16
West Coast
5 (4.55)8082.3
17
Richmond
2 (2.03)12062.5
18
North Melbourne
0 (0.49)13057.9

Round 15

Carlton 87 - 88 Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.485358 - 0.514642RealScores: 87.091419 - 87.730077

Essendon 91 - 65 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.764827 - 0.235173RealScores: 90.794350 - 64.532993

Fremantle 79 - 65 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.644777 - 0.355223RealScores: 78.522209 - 64.673972

Greater Western Sydney 76 - 92 Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.333883 - 0.666117RealScores: 76.352488 - 92.213779

Melbourne 109 - 56 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.94 wins - 0.06 winsRealProbs: 0.935546 - 0.064454RealScores: 109.454982 - 55.941750

Port Adelaide 80 - 79 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.513020 - 0.486980RealScores: 79.852586 - 79.372226

WLD%
1
Sydney
12 (11.94)20143.0
2
Essendon
9 (9.23)41104.8
3
Melbourne
9 (8.66)50117.8
4
Port Adelaide
9 (9.47)50113.2
5
Geelong
9 (9.40)50112.9
6
Collingwood
8 (8.06)51107.1
7
Greater Western Sydney
8 (7.80)60108.8
8
Fremantle
8 (8.03)60108.7
9
Gold Coast
8 (7.93)60108.6
10
Carlton
8 (8.01)60101.6
11
Western Bulldogs
7 (6.90)70121.0
12
Brisbane Lions
6 (6.15)71113.6
13
Adelaide
5 (5.36)81104.5
14
St Kilda
5 (4.63)9092.1
15
Hawthorn
5 (5.01)9084.1
16
West Coast
5 (4.81)9081.4
17
Richmond
2 (2.03)12062.5
18
North Melbourne
1 (0.58)13057.5

Round 16

Adelaide 85 - 78 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.576358 - 0.423642RealScores: 84.674155 - 77.926875

Brisbane Lions 75 - 65 Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.606586 - 0.393414RealScores: 75.124554 - 65.183117

Geelong 86 - 76 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.610367 - 0.389633RealScores: 86.174279 - 75.825322

Gold Coast 79 - 75 Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.547320 - 0.452680RealScores: 78.573048 - 74.794512

North Melbourne 61 - 121 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.03 wins - 0.97 winsRealProbs: 0.031565 - 0.968435RealScores: 60.578626 - 121.453646

Richmond 70 - 101 Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.20 wins - 0.80 winsRealProbs: 0.201201 - 0.798799RealScores: 70.316183 - 100.832535

St Kilda 73 - 78 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.446481 - 0.553519RealScores: 73.223078 - 77.627628

Sydney 85 - 64 Fremantle
S.C.G. (NSW)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.717064 - 0.282936RealScores: 85.135931 - 64.196668

West Coast 75 - 77 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.479861 - 0.520139RealScores: 75.437792 - 76.518065

WLD%
1
Sydney
13 (12.64)20142.4
2
Essendon
10 (9.62)41103.6
3
Geelong
10 (10.00)50112.9
4
Port Adelaide
10 (10.02)50112.7
5
Collingwood
9 (8.52)51106.3
6
Melbourne
9 (9.06)60115.6
7
Carlton
9 (8.79)60103.9
8
Western Bulldogs
8 (7.85)70125.4
9
Gold Coast
8 (8.47)70108.3
10
Greater Western Sydney
8 (8.22)70107.6
11
Fremantle
8 (8.33)70106.0
12
Brisbane Lions
7 (6.76)71113.7
13
Adelaide
6 (5.93)81104.8
14
Hawthorn
6 (5.53)9085.2
15
St Kilda
5 (5.08)10092.3
16
West Coast
5 (5.30)10082.4
17
Richmond
2 (2.26)13063.0
18
North Melbourne
1 (0.64)14056.9

Round 17

Brisbane Lions 86 - 66 Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.713227 - 0.286773RealScores: 86.455573 - 65.916770

Collingwood 80 - 70 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.609775 - 0.390225RealScores: 80.111264 - 69.943588

Fremantle 93 - 56 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.842756 - 0.157244RealScores: 92.938036 - 56.174640

Geelong 93 - 67 Hawthorn
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.764220 - 0.235780RealScores: 93.108169 - 66.918895

Greater Western Sydney 88 - 83 Carlton
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.561126 - 0.438874RealScores: 87.868660 - 82.792317

Melbourne 95 - 56 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.859389 - 0.140611RealScores: 94.882000 - 55.500769

North Melbourne 68 - 107 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.15 wins - 0.85 winsRealProbs: 0.146691 - 0.853309RealScores: 68.381642 - 106.788492

Port Adelaide 83 - 84 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.478955 - 0.521045RealScores: 82.647711 - 83.725692

St Kilda 66 - 84 Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.307834 - 0.692166RealScores: 65.938011 - 84.336199

WLD%
1
Sydney
13 (13.32)30141.5
2
Geelong
11 (10.74)50114.3
3
Essendon
10 (10.02)51102.6
4
Melbourne
10 (9.89)60118.4
5
Port Adelaide
10 (10.50)60111.8
6
Collingwood
9 (9.13)61106.8
7
Gold Coast
9 (9.29)70110.9
8
Fremantle
9 (9.15)70109.1
9
Greater Western Sydney
9 (8.78)70107.5
10
Carlton
9 (9.23)70103.3
11
Western Bulldogs
8 (8.36)80123.7
12
Brisbane Lions
7 (7.45)81114.7
13
Adelaide
6 (6.23)91102.8
14
Hawthorn
6 (5.79)10084.3
15
St Kilda
5 (5.40)11091.3
16
West Coast
5 (5.47)11080.8
17
Richmond
2 (2.44)14062.8
18
North Melbourne
1 (0.81)15057.3

Round 18

Adelaide 80 - 63 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.675586 - 0.324414RealScores: 80.155738 - 63.384270

Collingwood 83 - 81 Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.531581 - 0.468419RealScores: 82.525774 - 80.500840

Gold Coast 85 - 79 Port Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.570508 - 0.429492RealScores: 85.039491 - 79.101524

Hawthorn 64 - 74 Fremantle
York Park (TAS)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.397952 - 0.602048RealScores: 64.454774 - 73.686733

Melbourne 78 - 64 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.646443 - 0.353557RealScores: 78.049226 - 64.045448

Richmond 73 - 95 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.279979 - 0.720021RealScores: 73.374148 - 94.624470

Sydney 127 - 61 North Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.99 wins - 0.01 winsRealProbs: 0.990000 - 0.010000RealScores: 127.115703 - 60.943826

West Coast 67 - 91 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.256068 - 0.743932RealScores: 66.665137 - 90.514898

Western Bulldogs 91 - 75 Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.665499 - 0.334501RealScores: 91.281134 - 75.478888

WLD%
1
Sydney
14 (14.28)30145.0
2
Melbourne
11 (10.53)60118.6
3
Geelong
11 (11.22)60113.3
4
Port Adelaide
11 (10.94)60110.6
5
Collingwood
10 (9.65)61106.5
6
Essendon
10 (10.38)61101.4
7
Gold Coast
10 (9.86)70110.7
8
Fremantle
10 (9.74)70109.3
9
Carlton
10 (9.57)70102.0
10
Western Bulldogs
9 (9.02)80123.5
11
Greater Western Sydney
9 (9.48)80108.7
12
Brisbane Lions
8 (8.17)81115.8
13
Adelaide
7 (6.90)91104.0
14
St Kilda
6 (5.74)11090.6
15
Hawthorn
6 (6.19)11084.4
16
West Coast
6 (5.74)11080.4
17
Richmond
3 (2.74)14063.7
18
North Melbourne
1 (0.85)16056.7

Round 19

Brisbane Lions 79 - 77 Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.526312 - 0.473688RealScores: 78.901982 - 77.477039

Carlton 118 - 67 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.923586 - 0.076414RealScores: 117.985877 - 66.948594

Essendon 81 - 72 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.592923 - 0.407077RealScores: 80.587929 - 72.420594

Fremantle 69 - 64 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.565320 - 0.434680RealScores: 69.388822 - 64.073646

Geelong 83 - 84 Western Bulldogs
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.486785 - 0.513215RealScores: 83.621012 - 83.773684

Greater Western Sydney 84 - 78 Gold Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.571975 - 0.428025RealScores: 83.765761 - 77.770807

Hawthorn 66 - 82 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.340375 - 0.659625RealScores: 66.434729 - 81.678590

Port Adelaide 107 - 65 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.88 wins - 0.12 winsRealProbs: 0.875939 - 0.124061RealScores: 106.658823 - 64.518326

St Kilda 83 - 62 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.713304 - 0.286696RealScores: 82.712164 - 62.165320

WLD%
1
Sydney
15 (14.76)30142.1
2
Port Adelaide
12 (11.78)60113.1
3
Geelong
12 (11.71)60112.5
4
Essendon
11 (10.96)61101.9
5
Melbourne
11 (10.98)70117.1
6
Collingwood
10 (10.30)71107.3
7
Western Bulldogs
10 (9.52)80122.1
8
Gold Coast
10 (10.29)80109.7
9
Fremantle
10 (10.30)80109.3
10
Greater Western Sydney
10 (10.05)80108.6
11
Carlton
10 (10.47)80105.2
12
Brisbane Lions
9 (8.69)81115.0
13
Adelaide
7 (7.31)101103.2
14
Hawthorn
7 (6.54)11084.3
15
St Kilda
6 (6.44)12092.5
16
West Coast
6 (6.05)12080.1
17
Richmond
3 (2.89)15063.5
18
North Melbourne
1 (0.95)17056.7

Round 20

Adelaide 84 - 66 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.688078 - 0.311922RealScores: 84.358877 - 66.366096

Carlton 90 - 83 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.586291 - 0.413709RealScores: 90.400023 - 83.018388

Collingwood 97 - 63 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.821237 - 0.178763RealScores: 96.847829 - 63.257472

Fremantle 86 - 61 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.758842 - 0.241158RealScores: 86.396839 - 60.840809

Gold Coast 71 - 80 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.402031 - 0.597969RealScores: 71.203050 - 79.805894

Melbourne 84 - 67 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.678986 - 0.321014RealScores: 83.850113 - 66.748609

North Melbourne 68 - 120 Geelong
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.07 wins - 0.93 winsRealProbs: 0.068198 - 0.931802RealScores: 67.514377 - 120.241471

St Kilda 68 - 72 Essendon
Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.446156 - 0.553844RealScores: 67.626172 - 71.696181

Sydney 86 - 77 Western Bulldogs
S.C.G. (NSW)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.608759 - 0.391241RealScores: 86.418961 - 76.673123

WLD%
1
Sydney
15 (15.36)40140.4
2
Geelong
13 (12.62)60115.4
3
Essendon
12 (11.51)61102.1
4
Melbourne
12 (11.64)70117.5
5
Port Adelaide
12 (12.21)70111.8
6
Collingwood
11 (11.10)71109.3
7
Fremantle
11 (11.04)80110.8
8
Gold Coast
11 (10.71)80108.6
9
Carlton
11 (11.05)80105.4
10
Western Bulldogs
10 (9.92)90120.1
11
Greater Western Sydney
10 (10.38)90107.1
12
Brisbane Lions
9 (9.28)91114.8
13
Adelaide
8 (7.98)101104.3
14
St Kilda
7 (6.89)12092.6
15
Hawthorn
7 (6.87)12084.0
16
West Coast
6 (6.31)13079.6
17
Richmond
3 (3.10)16063.6
18
North Melbourne
1 (1.04)18056.7

Round 21

Collingwood 83 - 79 Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.553235 - 0.446765RealScores: 82.983528 - 79.054545

Essendon 71 - 69 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.543478 - 0.456522RealScores: 71.494772 - 68.536645

Geelong 94 - 72 Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.726354 - 0.273646RealScores: 94.333348 - 72.409552

Greater Western Sydney 87 - 69 Hawthorn
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.692741 - 0.307259RealScores: 87.102770 - 68.647328

North Melbourne 79 - 93 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.356823 - 0.643177RealScores: 79.187839 - 92.577313

Port Adelaide 83 - 88 Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.428811 - 0.571189RealScores: 82.652324 - 88.394067

St Kilda 64 - 76 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.365678 - 0.634322RealScores: 63.520685 - 75.933512

West Coast 73 - 87 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.344597 - 0.655403RealScores: 72.639703 - 87.396015

Western Bulldogs 78 - 69 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.600850 - 0.399150RealScores: 77.654843 - 68.839700

WLD%
1
Sydney
16 (15.92)40138.4
2
Geelong
13 (13.33)70116.1
3
Port Adelaide
13 (12.65)70110.8
4
Collingwood
12 (11.64)71109.0
5
Essendon
12 (12.04)71102.2
6
Melbourne
12 (12.05)80115.9
7
Fremantle
12 (11.50)80110.0
8
Carlton
12 (11.51)80104.9
9
Western Bulldogs
11 (10.51)90119.7
10
Gold Coast
11 (11.35)90109.1
11
Greater Western Sydney
11 (11.06)90107.9
12
Brisbane Lions
10 (9.91)91115.0
13
Adelaide
8 (8.28)111102.6
14
St Kilda
7 (7.27)13092.1
15
Hawthorn
7 (7.19)13083.7
16
West Coast
7 (6.67)13079.8
17
Richmond
4 (3.73)16065.7
18
North Melbourne
1 (1.41)19057.9

Round 22

Adelaide 76 - 83 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.411350 - 0.588650RealScores: 75.938785 - 83.393359

Brisbane Lions 88 - 69 Greater Western Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.703803 - 0.296197RealScores: 88.204353 - 68.634898

Carlton 87 - 71 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.667387 - 0.332613RealScores: 87.281362 - 71.298651

Essendon 78 - 75 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.546125 - 0.453875RealScores: 77.661543 - 74.515595

Fremantle 80 - 72 Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.596801 - 0.403199RealScores: 80.285268 - 71.981774

Melbourne 84 - 69 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.654622 - 0.345378RealScores: 83.749802 - 69.182808

North Melbourne 77 - 94 West Coast
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.329643 - 0.670357RealScores: 77.257067 - 93.524449

Richmond 64 - 83 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.304251 - 0.695749RealScores: 63.849446 - 82.605423

Sydney 90 - 69 Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.718397 - 0.281603RealScores: 90.408111 - 69.328930

WLD%
1
Sydney
17 (16.62)40138.0
2
Geelong
14 (13.74)70114.8
3
Essendon
13 (12.57)71102.3
4
Melbourne
13 (12.69)80116.2
5
Port Adelaide
13 (13.00)80109.4
6
Collingwood
12 (11.94)81107.3
7
Fremantle
12 (12.09)90110.1
8
Gold Coast
12 (11.82)90108.5
9
Carlton
12 (12.16)90105.6
10
Brisbane Lions
11 (10.59)91115.7
11
Western Bulldogs
11 (11.09)100119.3
12
Greater Western Sydney
11 (11.37)100106.3
13
Adelaide
9 (8.70)111102.0
14
St Kilda
8 (7.95)13093.6
15
Hawthorn
8 (7.53)13083.6
16
West Coast
7 (7.33)14081.5
17
Richmond
4 (4.05)17066.1
18
North Melbourne
2 (1.75)19058.8

Round 23

Collingwood 75 - 74 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.528973 - 0.471027RealScores: 75.058940 - 73.665306

Essendon 72 - 87 Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.341796 - 0.658204RealScores: 72.243054 - 87.115624

Gold Coast 72 - 73 Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.478657 - 0.521343RealScores: 72.184046 - 72.838888

Greater Western Sydney 77 - 72 Fremantle
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.569936 - 0.430064RealScores: 77.054091 - 71.595973

Hawthorn 86 - 68 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.686540 - 0.313460RealScores: 85.711999 - 67.870959

Port Adelaide 86 - 79 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.590525 - 0.409475RealScores: 86.431949 - 78.863546

St Kilda 71 - 82 Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.378109 - 0.621891RealScores: 70.724836 - 81.603988

West Coast 76 - 93 Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.316417 - 0.683583RealScores: 75.725565 - 93.276006

Western Bulldogs 123 - 59 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.98 wins - 0.02 winsRealProbs: 0.984270 - 0.015730RealScores: 123.379337 - 58.652934

WLD%
1
Sydney
17 (17.27)50137.2
2
Geelong
14 (14.35)80114.8
3
Port Adelaide
14 (13.58)80109.4
4
Essendon
13 (12.93)81101.3
5
Melbourne
13 (13.20)90115.4
6
Fremantle
13 (12.53)90109.2
7
Carlton
13 (12.83)90106.3
8
Collingwood
12 (12.45)91107.0
9
Western Bulldogs
12 (12.05)100122.5
10
Gold Coast
12 (12.31)100108.1
11
Greater Western Sydney
12 (11.93)100106.4
12
Brisbane Lions
11 (11.08)101114.8
13
Adelaide
9 (9.12)121101.4
14
St Kilda
8 (8.34)14093.3
15
Hawthorn
8 (8.20)14085.2
16
West Coast
8 (7.66)14081.5
17
Richmond
4 (4.38)18066.7
18
North Melbourne
2 (1.79)20058.3

Round 24

Brisbane Lions 85 - 63 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.727573 - 0.272427RealScores: 85.071659 - 63.017112

Carlton 82 - 69 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.636297 - 0.363703RealScores: 81.669993 - 69.316066

Fremantle 82 - 69 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.633633 - 0.366367RealScores: 81.556391 - 69.492844

Geelong 109 - 62 West Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.903994 - 0.096006RealScores: 109.113575 - 61.915120

Hawthorn 99 - 66 North Melbourne
York Park (TAS)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.817808 - 0.182192RealScores: 98.929999 - 65.824328

Melbourne 74 - 69 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.569632 - 0.430368RealScores: 74.108322 - 68.753735

Richmond 71 - 92 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.282854 - 0.717146RealScores: 70.565176 - 91.513075

Sydney 96 - 68 Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.781603 - 0.218397RealScores: 96.111123 - 67.804326

Western Bulldogs 93 - 71 Greater Western Sydney
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.732926 - 0.267074RealScores: 93.278532 - 70.644816

WLD%
1
Sydney
18 (18.02)50137.4
2
Geelong
15 (15.23)80116.9
3
Melbourne
14 (13.76)90115.1
4
Port Adelaide
14 (13.96)90108.4
5
Collingwood
13 (12.90)91106.4
6
Essendon
13 (13.22)91100.0
7
Western Bulldogs
13 (12.76)100122.9
8
Fremantle
13 (13.15)100109.6
9
Gold Coast
13 (13.00)100109.0
10
Carlton
13 (13.45)100106.7
11
Brisbane Lions
12 (11.78)101115.6
12
Greater Western Sydney
12 (12.22)110104.9
13
Adelaide
9 (9.37)13199.8
14
St Kilda
9 (8.72)14092.9
15
Hawthorn
9 (8.99)14087.4
16
West Coast
8 (7.78)15080.2
17
Richmond
5 (4.68)18067.1
18
North Melbourne
2 (2.00)21058.6

FINALS: WEEK 1

Sydney 94 - 65 Essendon
S.C.G. (NSW)

Geelong 91 - 84 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

Melbourne 74 - 59 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)

Collingwood 83 - 79 Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Essendon 65 - 77 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)

Port Adelaide 86 - 76 Collingwood
Adelaide Oval (SA)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Sydney 97 - 74 Port Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)

Geelong 75 - 79 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)

2024 AFL GRAND FINAL

Melbourne 75 - 76 Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE7

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

Flagpole Height
1Sydney62.2
2Western Bulldogs57.5
3Melbourne57.0
4Geelong56.9
5Brisbane Lions55.3
6Port Adelaide54.6
7Collingwood54.3
8Fremantle53.6
9Carlton53.4
10Gold Coast53.1
11Essendon52.0
12Greater Western Sydney51.3
13Adelaide43.6
14St Kilda38.7
15Hawthorn38.2
16West Coast30.5
17Richmond20.7
18North Melbourne8.3

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

AttackDefenceCombined
1Sydney61.862.762.2
2Western Bulldogs59.163.361.2
3Brisbane Lions55.664.860.2
4Melbourne52.366.059.1
5Geelong58.756.857.7
6Collingwood53.560.256.8
7Fremantle49.463.756.5
8Port Adelaide57.056.056.5
9Gold Coast53.758.756.2
10Carlton56.655.456.0
11Greater Western Sydney55.356.155.7
12Adelaide52.356.454.4
13Essendon50.357.654.0
14St Kilda45.459.152.3
15Hawthorn47.355.951.6
16West Coast45.248.346.8
17Richmond44.546.845.7
18North Melbourne43.140.541.8

MOST LIKELY GRAND FINALS

Greater Western Sydney def Adelaide1.7%
Brisbane Lions def Adelaide1.6%
Adelaide def Brisbane Lions1.6%
Adelaide def Greater Western Sydney1.6%
Melbourne def Adelaide1.6%
Geelong def Adelaide1.6%
Geelong def Brisbane Lions1.5%
Greater Western Sydney def Brisbane Lions1.5%
Geelong def Greater Western Sydney1.4%
Brisbane Lions def Greater Western Sydney1.4%
Adelaide def Geelong1.4%
Melbourne def Greater Western Sydney1.4%
Brisbane Lions def Geelong1.3%
Adelaide def Melbourne1.3%
Melbourne def Brisbane Lions1.3%
Melbourne def Geelong1.3%
Greater Western Sydney def Melbourne1.3%
Greater Western Sydney def Geelong1.2%
Geelong def Melbourne1.2%
Adelaide def Fremantle1.2%

EDIT SQUIGGLE

Oooh past

Oooh future

TODO:

(1) Allow for updating of FLAGPOLE

(2) Allow for updating of TOWER

(3) Allow for updating of TIPS

(4) Allow for modification of future games

(5) Allow for modification of past games

HOME TEAM:

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