Chart Size
Year
Squiggle

INFO

What Squiggles areHow to play through a seasonPredictionFAQThe ModelFlagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move up; when they score less, they move move down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Thu Jun 30 22:05:00 2022 (R16)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

Minor PremierTop 4Top 8Bottom 4Spoon

MODE LADDER

LikelihoodIf not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2022 ROUND 16 TIPS

Adelaide 65 - 89 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA: Adelaide +10.5 pts
Ins/Outs: Melbourne +0.6 pts

Brisbane Lions 98 - 79 Western Bulldogs
Gabba (QLD)
HGA: Brisbane Lions +10.0 pts
Ins/Outs: Brisbane Lions +10.2 pts

Carlton 82 - 80 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: Carlton +0.3 pts
Ins/Outs: St Kilda +2.3 pts

Essendon 78 - 88 Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: Essendon +7.4 pts
Ins/Outs: Essendon +1.9 pts

Fremantle 76 - 59 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: Fremantle +12.6 pts
Ins/Outs: Port Adelaide +3.2 pts

Geelong 113 - 41 North Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)
HGA: Geelong +10.4 pts
Ins/Outs: Geelong +1.0 pts

Gold Coast 80 - 75 Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)
HGA: Gold Coast +10.2 pts
Ins/Outs: Collingwood +3.3 pts

Greater Western Sydney 92 - 82 Hawthorn
Sydney Showground (NSW)
HGA: Greater Western Sydney +10.1 pts
Ins/Outs: Greater Western Sydney +3.2 pts

Richmond 110 - 58 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: Richmond +10.2 pts
Ins/Outs: West Coast +2.8 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE5
Tips after Round 15: 90

History...

In 2022, algorithm SQUIGGLE5 correctly tipped 91 games at an accuracy of 71.65%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1


Carlton (98) defeated Melbourne (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 5)
Western Bulldogs (80) lost to Brisbane Lions (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 6)
Hawthorn (69) lost to Richmond (94) at Devonport Oval (TAS) [Richmond by 25)
Adelaide (74) lost to Port Adelaide (111) at John Cain Arena (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 37)
Essendon (71) lost to St Kilda (82) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 11)
Greater Western Sydney (100) defeated Collingwood (59) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 41)
Sydney (82) defeated North Melbourne (51) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Sydney by 31)
Fremantle (79) defeated West Coast (66) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 13)
Gold Coast (95) defeated Geelong (72) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 23)

Round 1


Adelaide (82) lost to Fremantle (83) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Fremantle by 1) Adelaide by 7
Brisbane Lions (80) defeated Port Adelaide (69) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 11) Brisbane Lions by 12
Carlton (101) defeated Richmond (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 25) Richmond by 14
Geelong (138) defeated Essendon (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 66) Essendon by 4
Greater Western Sydney (92) lost to Sydney (112) at Stadium Australia (NSW) [Sydney by 20) Sydney by 0
Hawthorn (78) defeated North Melbourne (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 20) Hawthorn by 3
Melbourne (97) defeated Western Bulldogs (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 26) Melbourne by 13
St Kilda (85) lost to Collingwood (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 17) St Kilda by 9
West Coast (80) lost to Gold Coast (107) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Gold Coast by 27) Gold Coast by 3

Round 2


Collingwood (100) defeated Adelaide (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 42) Collingwood by 22
Essendon (75) lost to Brisbane Lions (97) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 22) Brisbane Lions by 5
Fremantle (55) lost to St Kilda (65) at Perth Stadium (WA) [St Kilda by 10) Fremantle by 14
Gold Coast (69) lost to Melbourne (82) at Carrara (QLD) [Melbourne by 13) Melbourne by 31
North Melbourne (74) defeated West Coast (59) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 15) North Melbourne by 0
Port Adelaide (56) lost to Hawthorn (120) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Hawthorn by 64) Port Adelaide by 12
Richmond (109) defeated Greater Western Sydney (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 36) Greater Western Sydney by 0
Sydney (107) defeated Geelong (77) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 30) Geelong by 4
Western Bulldogs (90) lost to Carlton (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 12) Western Bulldogs by 4

Round 3


Adelaide (96) defeated Port Adelaide (92) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 4) Port Adelaide by 10
Brisbane Lions (156) defeated North Melbourne (48) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 108) Brisbane Lions by 46
Carlton (74) defeated Hawthorn (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 1) Carlton by 6
Collingwood (91) lost to Geelong (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 13) Geelong by 14
Greater Western Sydney (83) defeated Gold Coast (57) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 26) Greater Western Sydney by 0
Melbourne (99) defeated Essendon (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 29) Melbourne by 41
St Kilda (117) defeated Richmond (84) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 33) St Kilda by 4
West Coast (47) lost to Fremantle (102) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 55) West Coast by 6
Western Bulldogs (71) defeated Sydney (60) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 11) Western Bulldogs by 14

Round 4


Collingwood (74) lost to West Coast (87) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 13) Collingwood by 29
Essendon (103) defeated Adelaide (99) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 4) Essendon by 15
Fremantle (88) defeated Greater Western Sydney (54) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 34) Fremantle by 23
Geelong (80) defeated Brisbane Lions (70) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 10) Geelong by 12
Gold Coast (92) defeated Carlton (62) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 30) Carlton by 5
Hawthorn (73) lost to St Kilda (142) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 69) St Kilda by 2
Port Adelaide (36) lost to Melbourne (68) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 32) Melbourne by 23
Richmond (99) defeated Western Bulldogs (61) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 38) Western Bulldogs by 14
Sydney (86) defeated North Melbourne (75) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 11) Sydney by 48

Round 5


Adelaide (101) defeated Richmond (82) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 19) Richmond by 10
Brisbane Lions (98) defeated Collingwood (91) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 7) Brisbane Lions by 27
Carlton (94) defeated Port Adelaide (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 3) Carlton by 6
Essendon (59) lost to Fremantle (107) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 48) Fremantle by 2
Hawthorn (92) defeated Geelong (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 12) Geelong by 23
Melbourne (120) defeated Greater Western Sydney (53) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 67) Melbourne by 40
North Melbourne (71) lost to Western Bulldogs (139) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 68) Western Bulldogs by 42
St Kilda (87) defeated Gold Coast (61) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 26) St Kilda by 19
West Coast (58) lost to Sydney (121) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 63) Sydney by 6

Round 6


Essendon (82) lost to Collingwood (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 11) Collingwood by 9
Fremantle (97) defeated Carlton (62) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 35) Fremantle by 19
Gold Coast (80) lost to Brisbane Lions (132) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 52) Brisbane Lions by 12
Greater Western Sydney (60) lost to St Kilda (77) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [St Kilda by 17) St Kilda by 4
Hawthorn (68) lost to Sydney (109) at York Park (TAS) [Sydney by 41) Sydney by 6
North Melbourne (61) lost to Geelong (121) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Geelong by 60) Geelong by 37
Port Adelaide (117) defeated West Coast (33) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 84) Port Adelaide by 46
Richmond (54) lost to Melbourne (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 22) Melbourne by 26
Western Bulldogs (62) lost to Adelaide (63) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Adelaide by 1) Western Bulldogs by 36

Round 7


Adelaide (54) lost to Greater Western Sydney (113) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 59) Adelaide by 10
Carlton (114) defeated North Melbourne (64) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 50) Carlton by 29
Collingwood (115) defeated Gold Coast (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 25) Collingwood by 10
Geelong (66) lost to Fremantle (69) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Fremantle by 3) Geelong by 27
Melbourne (91) defeated Hawthorn (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 10) Melbourne by 33
St Kilda (42) lost to Port Adelaide (43) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Port Adelaide by 1) St Kilda by 10
Sydney (89) lost to Brisbane Lions (113) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 24) Sydney by 15
West Coast (56) lost to Richmond (165) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Richmond by 109) Richmond by 15
Western Bulldogs (103) defeated Essendon (71) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 32) Western Bulldogs by 21

Round 8


Brisbane Lions (105) defeated West Coast (30) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 75) Brisbane Lions by 62
Carlton (116) defeated Adelaide (68) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 48) Carlton by 26
Essendon (108) defeated Hawthorn (81) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 27) Hawthorn by 4
Fremantle (102) defeated North Melbourne (24) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 78) Fremantle by 51
Greater Western Sydney (35) lost to Geelong (88) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Geelong by 53) Greater Western Sydney by 1
Melbourne (93) defeated St Kilda (55) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 38) Melbourne by 19
Port Adelaide (86) defeated Western Bulldogs (69) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 17) Port Adelaide by 11
Richmond (113) defeated Collingwood (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 9
Sydney (61) lost to Gold Coast (75) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Gold Coast by 14) Sydney by 23

Round 9


Adelaide (66) lost to Brisbane Lions (102) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 36) Brisbane Lions by 26
Collingwood (51) lost to Western Bulldogs (99) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 48) Western Bulldogs by 11
Gold Coast (69) defeated Fremantle (33) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 36) Fremantle by 11
Greater Western Sydney (75) lost to Carlton (105) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Carlton by 30) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Hawthorn (94) lost to Richmond (117) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 23) Richmond by 4
North Melbourne (46) lost to Port Adelaide (115) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Port Adelaide by 69) Port Adelaide by 31
St Kilda (90) defeated Geelong (80) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 10) Geelong by 10
Sydney (105) defeated Essendon (47) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 58) Sydney by 23
West Coast (38) lost to Melbourne (112) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Melbourne by 74) Melbourne by 60

Round 10


Adelaide (69) lost to St Kilda (90) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 21) St Kilda by 13
Carlton (102) defeated Sydney (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 15) Carlton by 3
Fremantle (44) lost to Collingwood (80) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Collingwood by 36) Fremantle by 28
Geelong (82) defeated Port Adelaide (47) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 35) Geelong by 26
Greater Western Sydney (138) defeated West Coast (86) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 52) Greater Western Sydney by 39
Hawthorn (117) defeated Brisbane Lions (112) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 5) Brisbane Lions by 12
North Melbourne (53) lost to Melbourne (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 47) Melbourne by 62
Richmond (80) defeated Essendon (48) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 32) Richmond by 14
Western Bulldogs (106) defeated Gold Coast (87) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 19) Western Bulldogs by 14

Round 11


Brisbane Lions (110) defeated Greater Western Sydney (96) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 14) Brisbane Lions by 34
Collingwood (79) defeated Carlton (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 4) Carlton by 3
Geelong (97) defeated Adelaide (55) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 42) Geelong by 46
Gold Coast (121) defeated Hawthorn (54) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 67) Gold Coast by 6
Melbourne (56) lost to Fremantle (94) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 38) Melbourne by 26
Port Adelaide (66) defeated Essendon (50) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 16) Port Adelaide by 28
St Kilda (103) defeated North Melbourne (50) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 53) St Kilda by 49
Sydney (106) defeated Richmond (100) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 6) Sydney by 9
West Coast (60) lost to Western Bulldogs (161) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Western Bulldogs by 101) Western Bulldogs by 41

Round 12


Adelaide (88) defeated West Coast (57) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 31) Adelaide by 44
Fremantle (99) defeated Brisbane Lions (85) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 14) Fremantle by 8
Gold Coast (109) defeated North Melbourne (47) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 62) Gold Coast by 46
Hawthorn (68) lost to Collingwood (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 4) Collingwood by 12
Melbourne (61) lost to Sydney (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 12) Melbourne by 30
Western Bulldogs (70) lost to Geelong (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 13) Geelong by 3

Round 13


Brisbane Lions (78) defeated St Kilda (57) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 21) Brisbane Lions by 13
Collingwood (82) defeated Melbourne (56) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 26) Melbourne by 13
Essendon (54) lost to Carlton (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 26) Carlton by 12
Fremantle (95) defeated Hawthorn (82) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 13) Fremantle by 31
North Melbourne (53) lost to Greater Western Sydney (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 49) Greater Western Sydney by 30
Richmond (77) defeated Port Adelaide (65) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 12) Richmond by 18

Round 14


Gold Coast (116) defeated Adelaide (73) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 43) Gold Coast by 34
Greater Western Sydney (105) lost to Western Bulldogs (125) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 20) Western Bulldogs by 11
Port Adelaide (82) defeated Sydney (59) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 23) Sydney by 14
Richmond (81) defeated Carlton (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 15) Richmond by 7
St Kilda (72) lost to Essendon (107) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 35) St Kilda by 22
West Coast (63) lost to Geelong (81) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Geelong by 18) Geelong by 52

Round 15


Carlton (81) defeated Fremantle (50) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 31) Carlton by 1
Collingwood (88) defeated Greater Western Sydney (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 11) Collingwood by 15
Geelong (89) defeated Richmond (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 3) Geelong by 11
Melbourne (117) defeated Brisbane Lions (53) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 64) Melbourne by 24
North Melbourne (58) lost to Adelaide (115) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Adelaide by 57) Adelaide by 19
Port Adelaide (93) defeated Gold Coast (91) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 2) Port Adelaide by 10
Sydney (83) defeated St Kilda (32) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 51) Sydney by 18
West Coast (107) defeated Essendon (97) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 10) Essendon by 22
Western Bulldogs (125) defeated Hawthorn (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 42) Western Bulldogs by 20

Round 16


Brisbane Lions (108) defeated Western Bulldogs (67) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 41) Brisbane Lions by 20

Round 17


Round 18


Round 19


Round 20


Round 21


Round 22


Round 23


Elimination Final


Semi-Final


Preliminary Final


Grand Final

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

90%
10%

SEASON PREDICTOR


Recalculate

Wins%
1
Melbourne
15.6129.6%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
2
Geelong
15.3130.4%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
3
Brisbane Lions
15.1122.9%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
4
Fremantle
14.4118.0%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
5
Sydney
14.1122.2%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
6
Carlton
14.1109.9%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
7
Collingwood
13.5108.6%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
8
Richmond
13.0118.8%
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
9
Gold Coast
11.8114.0%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
10
Western Bulldogs
11.7112.9%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
11
St Kilda
11.9103.8%
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
12
Port Adelaide
10.8102.2%
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
13
Adelaide
8.688.5%
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
14
Hawthorn
8.392.7%
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
15
Greater Western Sydney
7.289.5%
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
16
Essendon
6.683.7%
12
13
14
15
16
17
17
West Coast
3.857.6%
16
17
18
18
North Melbourne
2.352.6%
17
18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 16

Adelaide 65 - 89 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.273491 - 0.726509RealScores: 64.859714 - 88.956606

Carlton 82 - 80 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.531200 - 0.468800RealScores: 82.313972 - 80.044725

Essendon 78 - 88 Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.398012 - 0.601988RealScores: 78.290032 - 87.860579

Fremantle 76 - 59 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.664838 - 0.335162RealScores: 75.729631 - 59.143471

Geelong 113 - 41 North Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.98 wins - 0.02 winsRealProbs: 0.983189 - 0.016811RealScores: 112.572475 - 40.600203

Gold Coast 80 - 75 Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.564463 - 0.435537RealScores: 80.462353 - 74.832585

Greater Western Sydney 92 - 82 Hawthorn
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.599490 - 0.400510RealScores: 91.733561 - 82.430586

Richmond 110 - 58 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.91 wins - 0.09 winsRealProbs: 0.909265 - 0.090735RealScores: 110.462793 - 57.549411

WLD%
1
Melbourne
12 (11.73)30139.1
2
Geelong
11 (10.98)40131.5
3
Brisbane Lions
11 (11.00)40126.9
4
Fremantle
11 (10.66)40122.9
5
Carlton
11 (10.53)40113.8
6
Sydney
10 (9.60)50119.0
7
Richmond
9 (8.91)60119.8
8
Collingwood
9 (9.44)60105.1
9
Western Bulldogs
8 (8.00)70115.7
10
Gold Coast
8 (7.56)70110.3
11
St Kilda
8 (8.47)70106.6
12
Port Adelaide
7 (7.34)80103.2
13
Greater Western Sydney
5 (4.60)10092.1
14
Adelaide
5 (5.27)10084.7
15
Hawthorn
4 (4.40)11085.9
16
Essendon
3 (3.40)12079.3
17
West Coast
2 (2.09)13055.6
18
North Melbourne
1 (1.02)14051.0

Round 17

Brisbane Lions 101 - 70 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.778758 - 0.221242RealScores: 101.442765 - 70.468144

Collingwood 105 - 49 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.926647 - 0.073353RealScores: 105.252235 - 48.870426

Geelong 76 - 70 Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.568937 - 0.431063RealScores: 75.849924 - 69.807349

Gold Coast 87 - 78 Richmond
Carrara (QLD)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.592914 - 0.407086RealScores: 86.576527 - 78.029040

Hawthorn 92 - 78 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.642812 - 0.357188RealScores: 92.088152 - 78.094394

Port Adelaide 87 - 66 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.702347 - 0.297653RealScores: 87.339584 - 66.359026

St Kilda 67 - 66 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.515377 - 0.484623RealScores: 66.482711 - 65.808173

Sydney 86 - 74 Western Bulldogs
S.C.G. (NSW)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.626293 - 0.373707RealScores: 85.976321 - 73.822965

West Coast 66 - 97 Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.222541 - 0.777459RealScores: 66.415778 - 97.208503

WLD%
1
Melbourne
12 (12.16)40135.6
2
Geelong
12 (11.55)40130.0
3
Brisbane Lions
12 (11.78)40127.9
4
Fremantle
11 (11.15)50121.4
5
Carlton
11 (11.31)50115.5
6
Sydney
10 (10.23)60118.8
7
Collingwood
10 (10.36)60109.4
8
Richmond
9 (9.32)70117.8
9
St Kilda
9 (8.98)70106.3
10
Western Bulldogs
8 (8.37)80113.8
11
Gold Coast
8 (8.16)80110.3
12
Port Adelaide
8 (8.04)80104.8
13
Adelaide
6 (5.63)10084.7
14
Greater Western Sydney
5 (4.90)11091.1
15
Hawthorn
5 (5.04)11087.5
16
Essendon
4 (3.62)12078.6
17
West Coast
2 (2.31)14056.3
18
North Melbourne
1 (1.09)15050.8

Round 18

Adelaide 74 - 82 Collingwood
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.405952 - 0.594048RealScores: 73.764544 - 82.394305

Carlton 74 - 84 Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.395377 - 0.604623RealScores: 74.170027 - 83.925654

Essendon 78 - 85 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.422034 - 0.577966RealScores: 77.915749 - 84.859435

Fremantle 72 - 64 Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.589950 - 0.410050RealScores: 71.904917 - 63.707705

Greater Western Sydney 81 - 95 Brisbane Lions
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.362196 - 0.637804RealScores: 81.305776 - 94.688766

Hawthorn 105 - 63 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.85 wins - 0.15 winsRealProbs: 0.851763 - 0.148237RealScores: 105.054853 - 63.081772

Melbourne 81 - 60 Port Adelaide
Traeger Park (NT)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.702425 - 0.297575RealScores: 80.965025 - 60.042351

North Melbourne 55 - 108 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.09 wins - 0.91 winsRealProbs: 0.085519 - 0.914481RealScores: 54.894702 - 108.464164

Western Bulldogs 84 - 72 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.628052 - 0.371948RealScores: 84.220321 - 71.918942

WLD%
1
Melbourne
13 (12.86)40135.6
2
Geelong
12 (12.16)50129.0
3
Brisbane Lions
12 (12.42)50127.2
4
Fremantle
12 (11.74)50120.9
5
Carlton
12 (11.70)50113.8
6
Sydney
11 (10.64)60117.1
7
Collingwood
11 (10.96)60109.5
8
Richmond
10 (10.23)70121.1
9
Western Bulldogs
9 (9.00)80114.0
10
Gold Coast
9 (8.74)80110.2
11
St Kilda
9 (9.36)80104.9
12
Port Adelaide
8 (8.34)90102.8
13
Hawthorn
6 (5.90)11090.6
14
Adelaide
6 (6.04)11085.0
15
Greater Western Sydney
5 (5.26)12090.8
16
Essendon
4 (4.04)13079.3
17
West Coast
2 (2.46)15056.5
18
North Melbourne
1 (1.18)16050.8

Round 19

Brisbane Lions 89 - 80 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.603990 - 0.396010RealScores: 89.361756 - 79.697693

Carlton 96 - 73 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.713199 - 0.286801RealScores: 95.515921 - 73.315774

Collingwood 87 - 70 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.670024 - 0.329976RealScores: 87.008722 - 69.990948

North Melbourne 63 - 101 Hawthorn
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.17 wins - 0.83 winsRealProbs: 0.172200 - 0.827800RealScores: 63.413671 - 101.432404

Port Adelaide 70 - 75 Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.441194 - 0.558806RealScores: 69.798375 - 74.757432

Richmond 75 - 69 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.565213 - 0.434787RealScores: 74.519005 - 68.907102

Sydney 98 - 60 Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.823842 - 0.176158RealScores: 97.504526 - 60.098722

West Coast 64 - 87 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.281337 - 0.718663RealScores: 64.100357 - 86.981181

Western Bulldogs 74 - 81 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.413937 - 0.586063RealScores: 73.663948 - 81.432555

WLD%
1
Melbourne
13 (13.45)50134.0
2
Geelong
13 (12.72)50127.8
3
Brisbane Lions
13 (13.02)50126.3
4
Fremantle
12 (12.17)60119.1
5
Carlton
12 (12.42)60114.7
6
Collingwood
12 (11.63)60110.2
7
Richmond
11 (10.80)70120.4
8
Sydney
11 (11.46)70119.1
9
St Kilda
10 (10.07)80106.4
10
Western Bulldogs
9 (9.42)90112.7
11
Gold Coast
9 (9.13)90108.9
12
Port Adelaide
9 (8.78)90102.3
13
Hawthorn
7 (6.72)11093.3
14
Greater Western Sydney
6 (5.55)12090.0
15
Adelaide
6 (6.21)12083.6
16
Essendon
4 (4.37)14079.4
17
West Coast
3 (2.74)15057.3
18
North Melbourne
1 (1.35)17051.4

Round 20

Adelaide 80 - 84 Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.444186 - 0.555814RealScores: 79.678434 - 84.334144

Collingwood 80 - 63 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.671507 - 0.328493RealScores: 80.365503 - 63.196477

Essendon 98 - 59 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.837076 - 0.162924RealScores: 98.229811 - 58.821881

Fremantle 65 - 66 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.486146 - 0.513854RealScores: 65.642323 - 66.147239

Geelong 88 - 72 Western Bulldogs
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.661813 - 0.338187RealScores: 87.705581 - 71.656482

Gold Coast 108 - 54 West Coast
Carrara (QLD)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.917634 - 0.082366RealScores: 107.952259 - 54.001295

Richmond 89 - 85 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.552319 - 0.447681RealScores: 88.826495 - 84.523352

St Kilda 84 - 76 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.585528 - 0.414472RealScores: 84.182119 - 76.474359

Sydney 94 - 68 Greater Western Sydney
S.C.G. (NSW)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.736702 - 0.263298RealScores: 93.594611 - 68.459866

WLD%
1
Melbourne
14 (13.96)50132.2
2
Geelong
13 (13.38)60127.5
3
Brisbane Lions
13 (13.47)60124.5
4
Fremantle
13 (12.66)60118.0
5
Carlton
13 (12.97)60114.2
6
Sydney
12 (12.20)70120.0
7
Collingwood
12 (12.30)70111.0
8
Richmond
11 (11.35)80119.6
9
St Kilda
11 (10.66)80106.6
10
Gold Coast
10 (10.05)90112.2
11
Western Bulldogs
10 (9.75)90110.9
12
Port Adelaide
9 (9.10)100100.9
13
Hawthorn
7 (7.14)12093.2
14
Adelaide
7 (6.66)12084.1
15
Greater Western Sydney
6 (5.81)13089.1
16
Essendon
5 (5.21)14082.3
17
West Coast
3 (2.83)16056.9
18
North Melbourne
2 (1.51)17051.8

Round 21

Brisbane Lions 96 - 76 Carlton
Gabba (QLD)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.695792 - 0.304208RealScores: 95.952935 - 75.918277

Geelong 87 - 60 St Kilda
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.751470 - 0.248530RealScores: 87.198168 - 60.159454

Greater Western Sydney 88 - 80 Essendon
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.587180 - 0.412820RealScores: 87.582409 - 79.692494

Hawthorn 82 - 88 Gold Coast
York Park (TAS)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.433448 - 0.566552RealScores: 82.436781 - 88.196571

Melbourne 79 - 67 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.619108 - 0.380892RealScores: 78.546426 - 67.258830

North Melbourne 54 - 103 Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.11 wins - 0.89 winsRealProbs: 0.107452 - 0.892548RealScores: 53.697465 - 102.604396

Port Adelaide 79 - 74 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.553815 - 0.446185RealScores: 78.552599 - 74.084445

West Coast 73 - 84 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.380369 - 0.619631RealScores: 73.076427 - 84.420779

Western Bulldogs 77 - 66 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.614815 - 0.385185RealScores: 77.249686 - 66.426488

WLD%
1
Melbourne
15 (14.58)50131.4
2
Geelong
14 (14.13)60128.2
3
Brisbane Lions
14 (14.16)60124.6
4
Sydney
13 (13.09)70122.6
5
Fremantle
13 (13.05)70116.2
6
Carlton
13 (13.28)70112.0
7
Collingwood
13 (12.68)70109.7
8
Richmond
12 (11.79)80118.3
9
Gold Coast
11 (10.62)90112.0
10
St Kilda
11 (10.91)90104.4
11
Western Bulldogs
10 (10.37)100111.1
12
Port Adelaide
10 (9.66)100101.2
13
Hawthorn
8 (7.57)12093.2
14
Adelaide
7 (7.28)13085.4
15
Greater Western Sydney
6 (6.40)14090.0
16
Essendon
6 (5.62)14082.7
17
West Coast
3 (3.21)17058.1
18
North Melbourne
2 (1.62)18051.8

Round 22

Adelaide 99 - 55 North Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.87 wins - 0.13 winsRealProbs: 0.870512 - 0.129488RealScores: 99.465498 - 54.579800

Essendon 76 - 75 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.522013 - 0.477987RealScores: 75.852872 - 74.504795

Fremantle 91 - 51 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.841710 - 0.158290RealScores: 90.781182 - 50.702297

Gold Coast 77 - 78 Geelong
Carrara (QLD)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.488143 - 0.511857RealScores: 77.524985 - 77.888855

Melbourne 86 - 68 Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.676101 - 0.323899RealScores: 85.903974 - 68.192498

Richmond 95 - 80 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.660040 - 0.339960RealScores: 95.380768 - 79.523427

St Kilda 78 - 82 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.457107 - 0.542893RealScores: 78.330027 - 81.733265

Sydney 83 - 68 Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.652640 - 0.347360RealScores: 82.519056 - 67.502269

Western Bulldogs 101 - 70 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.780671 - 0.219329RealScores: 101.314958 - 70.327204

WLD%
1
Melbourne
15 (15.26)60131.1
2
Geelong
15 (14.64)60126.8
3
Brisbane Lions
15 (14.71)60123.6
4
Sydney
14 (13.74)70122.6
5
Fremantle
14 (13.89)70118.5
6
Carlton
14 (13.60)70110.3
7
Collingwood
13 (13.03)80108.3
8
Richmond
12 (12.45)90118.4
9
Western Bulldogs
11 (11.15)100112.5
10
Gold Coast
11 (11.10)100111.4
11
St Kilda
11 (11.37)100103.9
12
Port Adelaide
10 (10.14)110101.0
13
Hawthorn
8 (7.91)13092.7
14
Adelaide
8 (8.15)13088.3
15
Greater Western Sydney
7 (6.62)14088.9
16
Essendon
6 (6.14)15083.5
17
West Coast
3 (3.36)18058.0
18
North Melbourne
2 (1.75)19051.9

Round 23

Brisbane Lions 80 - 79 Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.521575 - 0.478425RealScores: 80.129359 - 78.780264

Carlton 76 - 81 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.435732 - 0.564268RealScores: 75.820898 - 81.413734

Essendon 75 - 91 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.339493 - 0.660507RealScores: 75.453707 - 91.393789

Geelong 112 - 47 West Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.97 wins - 0.03 winsRealProbs: 0.966659 - 0.033341RealScores: 112.494313 - 47.079151

Greater Western Sydney 71 - 74 Fremantle
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.458009 - 0.541991RealScores: 70.947929 - 74.303194

Hawthorn 82 - 94 Western Bulldogs
York Park (TAS)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.379230 - 0.620770RealScores: 82.112367 - 93.633432

North Melbourne 57 - 102 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.13 wins - 0.87 winsRealProbs: 0.127531 - 0.872469RealScores: 57.130764 - 102.352199

Port Adelaide 81 - 68 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.629772 - 0.370228RealScores: 80.866308 - 68.363700

St Kilda 72 - 76 Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.449016 - 0.550984RealScores: 71.572161 - 75.824389

WLD%
1
Geelong
16 (15.61)60130.3
2
Melbourne
16 (15.73)60129.3
3
Brisbane Lions
15 (15.23)70122.6
4
Sydney
14 (14.30)80121.9
5
Fremantle
14 (14.43)80117.8
6
Carlton
14 (14.04)80109.5
7
Collingwood
14 (13.59)80108.2
8
Richmond
13 (13.12)90118.5
9
Gold Coast
12 (11.98)100113.7
10
Western Bulldogs
12 (11.77)100112.6
11
St Kilda
12 (11.81)100103.5
12
Port Adelaide
11 (10.77)110101.7
13
Adelaide
9 (8.52)13088.1
14
Hawthorn
8 (8.29)14092.5
15
Greater Western Sydney
7 (7.07)15089.2
16
Essendon
6 (6.48)16083.4
17
West Coast
3 (3.40)19057.2
18
North Melbourne
2 (1.88)20052.1

Round 24

WLD%
1
Geelong
16 (15.61)60130.3
2
Melbourne
16 (15.73)60129.3
3
Brisbane Lions
15 (15.23)70122.6
4
Sydney
14 (14.30)80121.9
5
Fremantle
14 (14.43)80117.8
6
Carlton
14 (14.04)80109.5
7
Collingwood
14 (13.59)80108.2
8
Richmond
13 (13.12)90118.5
9
Gold Coast
12 (11.98)100113.7
10
Western Bulldogs
12 (11.77)100112.6
11
St Kilda
12 (11.81)100103.5
12
Port Adelaide
11 (10.77)110101.7
13
Adelaide
9 (8.52)13088.1
14
Hawthorn
8 (8.29)14092.5
15
Greater Western Sydney
7 (7.07)15089.2
16
Essendon
6 (6.48)16083.4
17
West Coast
3 (3.40)19057.2
18
North Melbourne
2 (1.88)20052.1

Round 25

WLD%
1
Geelong
16 (15.61)60130.3
2
Melbourne
16 (15.73)60129.3
3
Brisbane Lions
15 (15.23)70122.6
4
Sydney
14 (14.30)80121.9
5
Fremantle
14 (14.43)80117.8
6
Carlton
14 (14.04)80109.5
7
Collingwood
14 (13.59)80108.2
8
Richmond
13 (13.12)90118.5
9
Gold Coast
12 (11.98)100113.7
10
Western Bulldogs
12 (11.77)100112.6
11
St Kilda
12 (11.81)100103.5
12
Port Adelaide
11 (10.77)110101.7
13
Adelaide
9 (8.52)13088.1
14
Hawthorn
8 (8.29)14092.5
15
Greater Western Sydney
7 (7.07)15089.2
16
Essendon
6 (6.48)16083.4
17
West Coast
3 (3.40)19057.2
18
North Melbourne
2 (1.88)20052.1

Round 26

WLD%
1
Geelong
16 (15.61)60130.3
2
Melbourne
16 (15.73)60129.3
3
Brisbane Lions
15 (15.23)70122.6
4
Sydney
14 (14.30)80121.9
5
Fremantle
14 (14.43)80117.8
6
Carlton
14 (14.04)80109.5
7
Collingwood
14 (13.59)80108.2
8
Richmond
13 (13.12)90118.5
9
Gold Coast
12 (11.98)100113.7
10
Western Bulldogs
12 (11.77)100112.6
11
St Kilda
12 (11.81)100103.5
12
Port Adelaide
11 (10.77)110101.7
13
Adelaide
9 (8.52)13088.1
14
Hawthorn
8 (8.29)14092.5
15
Greater Western Sydney
7 (7.07)15089.2
16
Essendon
6 (6.48)16083.4
17
West Coast
3 (3.40)19057.2
18
North Melbourne
2 (1.88)20052.1

Round 27

WLD%
1
Geelong
16 (15.61)60130.3
2
Melbourne
16 (15.73)60129.3
3
Brisbane Lions
15 (15.23)70122.6
4
Sydney
14 (14.30)80121.9
5
Fremantle
14 (14.43)80117.8
6
Carlton
14 (14.04)80109.5
7
Collingwood
14 (13.59)80108.2
8
Richmond
13 (13.12)90118.5
9
Gold Coast
12 (11.98)100113.7
10
Western Bulldogs
12 (11.77)100112.6
11
St Kilda
12 (11.81)100103.5
12
Port Adelaide
11 (10.77)110101.7
13
Adelaide
9 (8.52)13088.1
14
Hawthorn
8 (8.29)14092.5
15
Greater Western Sydney
7 (7.07)15089.2
16
Essendon
6 (6.48)16083.4
17
West Coast
3 (3.40)19057.2
18
North Melbourne
2 (1.88)20052.1

FINALS: WEEK 1

Melbourne 76 - 56 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)

Geelong 87 - 76 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)

Sydney 89 - 71 Richmond
S.C.G. (NSW)

Carlton 76 - 81 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Fremantle 72 - 64 Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)

Brisbane Lions 88 - 74 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Melbourne 89 - 70 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)

Geelong 74 - 61 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)

2022 AFL GRAND FINAL

Geelong 69 - 77 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE5

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

Flagpole Height
1Melbourne62.4
2Geelong60.5
3Brisbane Lions57.4
4Sydney57.0
5Fremantle56.4
6Carlton53.2
7Collingwood52.9
8Richmond52.1
9Western Bulldogs49.8
10Gold Coast46.3
11St Kilda42.1
12Port Adelaide35.5
13Adelaide14.9
14Hawthorn14.5
15Greater Western Sydney10.0
16Essendon4.9
17West Coast1.3
18North Melbourne1.2

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

AttackDefenceCombined
1Melbourne57.168.662.9
2Geelong57.064.760.9
3Sydney55.462.558.9
4Brisbane Lions60.257.658.9
5Western Bulldogs58.658.858.7
6Fremantle48.767.958.3
7Collingwood53.861.357.5
8Gold Coast55.358.657.0
9Richmond56.657.056.8
10Carlton55.156.655.8
11Port Adelaide49.060.454.7
12St Kilda49.859.254.5
13Hawthorn53.950.952.4
14Essendon51.253.152.2
15Greater Western Sydney51.351.151.2
16Adelaide48.751.650.1
17West Coast40.445.542.9
18North Melbourne36.944.440.7

EDIT SQUIGGLE

Oooh past

Oooh future

TODO:

(1) Allow for updating of FLAGPOLE

(2) Allow for updating of TOWER

(3) Allow for updating of TIPS

(4) Allow for modification of future games

(5) Allow for modification of past games

HOME TEAM:

vs

Cancel Add Another Game

/* heavier border */ /* lighter border */ /* much lighter border */ /* Tower of Power fills */