Squiggle 2024

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		Wins	%
1	Adelaide	13.7	117.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
2	Melbourne	13.4	118.0%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
3	Geelong	13.3	115.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
4	Brisbane Lions	13.1	113.8%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
5	Greater Western Sydney	13.0	112.8%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
6	Carlton	12.6	110.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
7	Fremantle	12.6	110.6%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
8	Collingwood	12.5	109.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
9	Western Bulldogs	12.1	106.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
10	Port Adelaide	12.0	105.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
11	Sydney	11.8	103.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
12	Gold Coast	11.8	103.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
13	Richmond	11.3	99.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
14	St Kilda	10.4	93.8%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
15	Hawthorn	10.3	93.0%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
16	Essendon	10.3	93.3%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
17	North Melbourne	8.6	83.4%	4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
18	West Coast	4.3	58.4%	13 14 15 16 17 18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 0

Brisbane Lions 81 - 75 Carlton Carlton
Gabba (QLD)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.563544 - 0.436456RealScores: 80.915787 - 74.597160

Gold Coast 83 - 80 Richmond
Carrara (QLD)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.530032 - 0.469968RealScores: 82.820468 - 79.743785

Greater Western Sydney 79 - 73 Collingwood
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.562895 - 0.437105RealScores: 79.109403 - 72.852162

Sydney Sydney 73 - 74 Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 73.109868 - 73.120453

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	1 (0.52)	0	108.6
2	Brisbane Lions	1 (0.52)	0	108.5
3	Gold Coast	1 (0.50)	0	103.9
4	Melbourne	1 (0.50)	0	100.0
5	Sydney	0 (0.50)	1	100.0
6	Richmond	0 (0.50)	1	96.3
7	Carlton	0 (0.48)	1	92.2
8	Collingwood	0 (0.48)	1	92.1

Round 1

Carlton Carlton 82 - 76 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.557488 - 0.442512RealScores: 81.777179 - 76.033048

Collingwood 80 - 73 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.573539 - 0.426461RealScores: 79.929756 - 72.671252

Essendon 73 - 74 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.499900 - 0.500100RealScores: 73.649452 - 73.660037

Fremantle 76 - 75 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.504345 - 0.495655RealScores: 75.667317 - 75.209715

Geelong Geelong 82 - 64 St Kilda
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.680489 - 0.319511RealScores: 81.729086 - 64.481194

Gold Coast 81 - 85 Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.466254 - 0.533746RealScores: 81.467679 - 84.912168

Greater Western Sydney 96 - 69 North Melbourne
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.768138 - 0.231862RealScores: 96.071613 - 69.414649

Melbourne 76 - 70 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.563036 - 0.436964RealScores: 76.187757 - 69.917216

Port Adelaide 115 - 65 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.916372 - 0.083628RealScores: 114.659928 - 65.066700

		W	L	%
1	Port Adelaide	1 (0.83)	0	176.2
2	Geelong	1 (0.63)	0	126.7
3	Greater Western Sydney	1 (1.22)	1	123.1
4	Melbourne	1 (1.03)	1	104.4
5	Adelaide	1 (0.51)	0	104.2
6	Brisbane Lions	1 (1.02)	1	103.9
7	Collingwood	1 (1.02)	1	100.7
8	Fremantle	1 (0.50)	0	100.6
9	Hawthorn	1 (0.50)	0	100.0
10	Gold Coast	1 (0.99)	1	99.8
11	Carlton	1 (1.01)	1	99.6
12	Sydney	1 (0.96)	1	95.3
13	Richmond	1 (0.97)	1	94.6
14	Essendon	0 (0.50)	1	100.0
15	Western Bulldogs	0 (0.47)	1	91.8
16	St Kilda	0 (0.37)	1	78.9
17	North Melbourne	0 (0.30)	1	72.3
18	West Coast	0 (0.17)	1	56.7

Round 2

Adelaide 89 - 79 Geelong Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.604236 - 0.395764RealScores: 89.104889 - 79.002374

Hawthorn 64 - 76 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.375432 - 0.624568RealScores: 64.382271 - 76.356818

North Melbourne 72 - 82 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.393568 - 0.606432RealScores: 71.961712 - 82.266315

Richmond 88 - 87 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.517222 - 0.482778RealScores: 88.474823 - 86.686760

St Kilda 65 - 76 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.384978 - 0.615022RealScores: 65.108658 - 76.203785

Sydney Sydney 84 - 70 Essendon
S.C.G. (NSW)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.650051 - 0.349949RealScores: 84.290247 - 69.948600

West Coast 65 - 106 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.13 wins - 0.87 winsRealProbs: 0.131591 - 0.868409RealScores: 64.669819 - 105.535180

Western Bulldogs 83 - 73 Gold Coast
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.600909 - 0.399091RealScores: 82.622238 - 72.826128

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	2 (2.02)	1	135.7
2	Melbourne	2 (1.62)	1	108.8
3	Collingwood	2 (1.60)	1	105.6
4	Sydney	2 (1.57)	1	103.2
5	Port Adelaide	1 (1.33)	1	131.1
6	Adelaide	1 (1.08)	1	108.4
7	Fremantle	1 (1.08)	1	107.3
8	Geelong	1 (1.05)	1	104.7
9	Brisbane Lions	1 (1.02)	1	103.9
10	Western Bulldogs	1 (1.04)	1	102.4
11	Carlton	1 (1.01)	1	99.6
12	Richmond	1 (1.47)	2	97.2
13	Gold Coast	1 (1.42)	2	95.9
14	Hawthorn	1 (0.91)	1	92.0
15	Essendon	1 (0.89)	1	90.9
16	St Kilda	1 (0.79)	1	82.1
17	North Melbourne	1 (0.73)	1	79.3
18	West Coast	0 (0.37)	2	58.9

Round 3

Brisbane Lions 83 - 74 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.598552 - 0.401448RealScores: 83.495881 - 73.917076

Essendon 71 - 70 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 70.873101 - 70.862515

Fremantle 79 - 78 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.511930 - 0.488070RealScores: 78.765746 - 77.519954

Hawthorn 72 - 80 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.416983 - 0.583017RealScores: 71.680420 - 79.822463

North Melbourne 70 - 89 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.299707 - 0.700293RealScores: 70.173084 - 89.386466

Port Adelaide 79 - 78 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.505754 - 0.494246RealScores: 78.691479 - 78.086395

Richmond 82 - 81 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.508519 - 0.491481RealScores: 82.159518 - 81.266475

Western Bulldogs 110 - 58 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.926853 - 0.073147RealScores: 109.986396 - 58.283003

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	2 (2.02)	1	135.7
2	Western Bulldogs	2 (1.90)	1	126.6
3	Port Adelaide	2 (1.83)	1	120.9
4	Carlton	2 (1.66)	1	108.2
5	Brisbane Lions	2 (1.60)	1	106.9
6	Geelong	2 (1.61)	1	106.8
7	Melbourne	2 (2.12)	2	106.2
8	Fremantle	2 (1.58)	1	105.3
9	Adelaide	2 (1.58)	1	105.1
10	Sydney	2 (2.07)	2	102.0
11	Collingwood	2 (2.03)	2	100.8
12	Richmond	2 (1.97)	2	98.2
13	Gold Coast	1 (1.42)	2	95.9
14	Essendon	1 (1.39)	2	93.7
15	Hawthorn	1 (1.35)	2	91.3
16	St Kilda	1 (1.29)	2	87.6
17	North Melbourne	1 (1.07)	2	79.0
18	West Coast	1 (0.51)	2	56.9

Round 4

Adelaide 82 - 74 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.579359 - 0.420641RealScores: 81.838286 - 74.036470

Brisbane Lions 99 - 73 North Melbourne
Norwood Oval (SA)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.765202 - 0.234798RealScores: 98.847294 - 72.541270

Collingwood 78 - 68 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.600152 - 0.399848RealScores: 78.123923 - 68.397582

Fremantle 70 - 71 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.495341 - 0.504659RealScores: 70.288504 - 70.779002

Gold Coast 74 - 81 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Hills (SA)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.422172 - 0.577828RealScores: 73.697000 - 81.356088

Port Adelaide 92 - 73 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.696935 - 0.303065RealScores: 92.080473 - 73.205466

Richmond 79 - 72 St Kilda
Norwood Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.576017 - 0.423983RealScores: 79.143392 - 71.653249

West Coast 61 - 107 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Hills (SA)0.11 wins - 0.89 winsRealProbs: 0.106896 - 0.893104RealScores: 61.348143 - 106.524047

Western Bulldogs 77 - 80 Geelong Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.465662 - 0.534338RealScores: 76.972484 - 80.475371

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	3 (2.58)	1	129.0
2	Sydney	3 (2.90)	2	114.0
3	Collingwood	3 (2.61)	2	103.3
4	Melbourne	3 (2.56)	2	102.7
5	Richmond	3 (2.53)	2	100.3
6	Port Adelaide	2 (2.49)	2	122.1
7	Western Bulldogs	2 (2.38)	2	118.0
8	Brisbane Lions	2 (2.31)	2	114.1
9	Carlton	2 (2.16)	2	106.4
10	Adelaide	2 (2.14)	2	106.4
11	Geelong	2 (2.13)	2	106.2
12	Fremantle	2 (2.08)	2	103.9
13	Gold Coast	2 (1.86)	2	94.6
14	Hawthorn	2 (1.77)	2	90.3
15	Essendon	2 (1.73)	2	89.6
16	St Kilda	2 (1.73)	2	88.4
17	North Melbourne	1 (1.36)	3	77.5
18	West Coast	1 (0.67)	3	57.1

Round 5

Carlton Carlton 82 - 79 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.538391 - 0.461609RealScores: 82.484652 - 78.583428

Geelong Geelong 98 - 69 North Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.789780 - 0.210220RealScores: 98.257342 - 68.914823

Gold Coast 80 - 69 Hawthorn
Carrara (QLD)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.604688 - 0.395312RealScores: 79.609057 - 69.464962

Greater Western Sydney 82 - 63 St Kilda
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.703900 - 0.296100RealScores: 82.104946 - 62.525541

Melbourne 79 - 71 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.579060 - 0.420940RealScores: 79.153251 - 71.379315

Port Adelaide 83 - 74 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.590753 - 0.409247RealScores: 82.766032 - 73.907208

West Coast 69 - 105 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.16 wins - 0.84 winsRealProbs: 0.160022 - 0.839978RealScores: 68.675156 - 105.015657

Western Bulldogs 84 - 71 Essendon
Docklands (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.633485 - 0.366515RealScores: 83.535766 - 70.737186

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	3 (3.24)	2	129.4
2	Port Adelaide	3 (3.06)	2	120.1
3	Western Bulldogs	3 (2.99)	2	118.0
4	Sydney	3 (2.90)	2	114.0
5	Geelong	3 (2.87)	2	113.0
6	Brisbane Lions	3 (2.75)	2	109.0
7	Richmond	3 (3.32)	3	108.0
8	Carlton	3 (2.69)	2	106.1
9	Adelaide	3 (2.62)	2	104.1
10	Melbourne	3 (3.13)	3	104.0
11	Collingwood	3 (2.61)	2	103.3
12	Fremantle	3 (2.50)	2	100.7
13	Gold Coast	2 (2.45)	3	98.1
14	Hawthorn	2 (2.19)	3	89.7
15	Essendon	2 (2.13)	3	88.6
16	St Kilda	2 (2.07)	3	85.8
17	North Melbourne	2 (1.62)	3	75.9
18	West Coast	1 (0.89)	4	58.7

Round 6

Adelaide 96 - 70 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.763195 - 0.236805RealScores: 95.851973 - 69.784127

Brisbane Lions 85 - 77 Geelong Geelong
Gabba (QLD)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.576771 - 0.423229RealScores: 84.944871 - 77.384372

Carlton Carlton 77 - 73 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.545522 - 0.454478RealScores: 77.360868 - 72.765403

Collingwood 87 - 77 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.602968 - 0.397032RealScores: 86.784907 - 76.799199

North Melbourne 74 - 83 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.398719 - 0.601281RealScores: 73.577243 - 83.407589

St Kilda 67 - 78 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.389459 - 0.610541RealScores: 66.949063 - 77.631870

Sydney Sydney 82 - 73 Gold Coast
S.C.G. (NSW)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.588175 - 0.411825RealScores: 82.058341 - 73.438040

West Coast 56 - 101 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.11 wins - 0.89 winsRealProbs: 0.112759 - 0.887241RealScores: 56.397303 - 100.515875

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	4 (3.71)	2	122.9
2	Western Bulldogs	4 (3.58)	2	117.7
3	Port Adelaide	3 (3.48)	3	114.2
4	Sydney	3 (3.47)	3	113.6
5	Fremantle	3 (3.34)	3	110.8
6	Brisbane Lions	3 (3.31)	3	109.2
7	Adelaide	3 (3.33)	3	109.1
8	Geelong	3 (3.31)	3	108.9
9	Richmond	3 (3.32)	3	108.0
10	Carlton	3 (3.22)	3	106.2
11	Collingwood	3 (3.19)	3	105.0
12	Melbourne	3 (3.13)	3	104.0
13	Gold Coast	3 (2.87)	3	96.6
14	Hawthorn	3 (2.77)	3	93.5
15	St Kilda	2 (2.48)	4	85.9
16	Essendon	2 (2.41)	4	85.6
17	North Melbourne	2 (2.04)	4	77.8
18	West Coast	1 (1.05)	5	58.3

Round 7

Essendon 69 - 82 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.366433 - 0.633567RealScores: 68.988854 - 81.795063

Fremantle 78 - 68 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.604299 - 0.395701RealScores: 78.105136 - 67.996881

Geelong Geelong 77 - 75 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.510542 - 0.489458RealScores: 76.533649 - 75.431099

Gold Coast 109 - 57 West Coast
Carrara (QLD)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.927539 - 0.072461RealScores: 109.033637 - 57.189299

Greater Western Sydney 83 - 77 Brisbane Lions
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.553723 - 0.446277RealScores: 82.841914 - 77.457216

Hawthorn 74 - 76 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.474411 - 0.525589RealScores: 73.643883 - 76.277263

North Melbourne 75 - 102 Adelaide
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.23 wins - 0.77 winsRealProbs: 0.229991 - 0.770009RealScores: 75.399615 - 102.281911

Port Adelaide 87 - 68 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.703929 - 0.296071RealScores: 87.240142 - 67.657787

Richmond 71 - 82 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.387651 - 0.612349RealScores: 71.175732 - 82.024845

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	4 (4.25)	3	120.4
2	Port Adelaide	4 (4.15)	3	116.1
3	Western Bulldogs	4 (3.99)	3	112.9
4	Adelaide	4 (4.06)	3	112.8
5	Sydney	4 (3.99)	3	112.2
6	Fremantle	4 (3.93)	3	111.3
7	Geelong	4 (3.81)	3	107.8
8	Collingwood	4 (3.80)	3	106.8
9	Brisbane Lions	4 (3.76)	3	106.7
10	Gold Coast	4 (3.75)	3	106.6
11	Melbourne	4 (3.72)	3	105.6
12	Carlton	4 (3.72)	3	105.0
13	Richmond	4 (3.72)	3	104.8
14	Hawthorn	3 (3.25)	4	93.9
15	Essendon	3 (2.80)	4	85.4
16	St Kilda	3 (2.81)	4	84.6
17	North Melbourne	2 (2.31)	5	77.2
18	West Coast	1 (1.17)	6	57.5

Round 8

Adelaide 94 - 85 Port Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.600981 - 0.399019RealScores: 94.453331 - 84.650596

Brisbane Lions 86 - 74 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.620780 - 0.379220RealScores: 86.117549 - 74.492141

Carlton Carlton 74 - 73 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.510298 - 0.489702RealScores: 74.161296 - 73.083944

Melbourne 77 - 70 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.564364 - 0.435636RealScores: 76.778451 - 70.382338

Richmond 79 - 74 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.548450 - 0.451550RealScores: 78.870720 - 73.992437

St Kilda 80 - 70 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.601534 - 0.398466RealScores: 80.334920 - 70.481268

Sydney Sydney 75 - 81 Greater Western Sydney
S.C.G. (NSW)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.443595 - 0.556405RealScores: 75.025418 - 80.666345

West Coast 67 - 94 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.223489 - 0.776511RealScores: 66.701615 - 94.376584

Western Bulldogs 81 - 69 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.616391 - 0.383609RealScores: 80.573767 - 69.352599

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	5 (4.80)	3	118.8
2	Western Bulldogs	5 (4.59)	3	113.3
3	Adelaide	5 (4.64)	3	112.6
4	Port Adelaide	5 (4.56)	3	112.1
5	Sydney	4 (4.44)	4	109.6
6	Fremantle	4 (4.39)	4	108.9
7	Brisbane Lions	4 (4.37)	4	107.8
8	Melbourne	4 (4.27)	4	106.0
9	Geelong	4 (4.26)	4	105.8
10	Collingwood	4 (4.30)	4	105.8
11	Richmond	4 (4.26)	4	105.0
12	Carlton	4 (4.22)	4	104.6
13	Gold Coast	4 (4.15)	4	103.8
14	Hawthorn	4 (3.65)	4	92.9
15	Essendon	4 (3.53)	4	91.2
16	St Kilda	3 (3.39)	5	87.9
17	North Melbourne	3 (2.72)	5	78.3
18	West Coast	1 (1.44)	7	58.9

Round 9

Adelaide 91 - 81 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.609602 - 0.390398RealScores: 91.276183 - 80.679826

Carlton Carlton 68 - 73 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.458380 - 0.541620RealScores: 68.434973 - 72.559648

Collingwood 111 - 54 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.95 wins - 0.05 winsRealProbs: 0.951345 - 0.048655RealScores: 110.795749 - 53.850217

Essendon 72 - 83 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.387326 - 0.612674RealScores: 71.715885 - 82.594958

Fremantle 79 - 67 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.618157 - 0.381843RealScores: 78.772658 - 67.388879

Geelong Geelong 92 - 77 Port Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.662254 - 0.337746RealScores: 92.205228 - 76.711987

Gold Coast 91 - 72 North Melbourne
Marrara Oval (NT)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.698560 - 0.301440RealScores: 91.418473 - 72.380032

Hawthorn 72 - 66 St Kilda
York Park (TAS)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.555700 - 0.444300RealScores: 71.803897 - 66.230239

Richmond 80 - 84 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.461241 - 0.538759RealScores: 79.782992 - 83.614232

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	5 (5.39)	4	118.4
2	Collingwood	5 (5.21)	4	114.1
3	Adelaide	5 (5.24)	4	112.7
4	Western Bulldogs	5 (5.12)	4	112.3
5	Fremantle	5 (4.99)	4	109.8
6	Port Adelaide	5 (4.92)	4	108.4
7	Geelong	5 (4.89)	4	107.4
8	Sydney	5 (4.84)	4	106.8
9	Gold Coast	5 (4.82)	4	106.2
10	Melbourne	5 (4.81)	4	106.0
11	Brisbane Lions	5 (4.77)	4	105.3
12	Richmond	5 (4.73)	4	103.9
13	Carlton	5 (4.69)	4	103.5
14	Hawthorn	4 (4.20)	5	94.4
15	Essendon	4 (3.93)	5	90.7
16	St Kilda	4 (3.85)	5	88.3
17	North Melbourne	3 (3.06)	6	78.4
18	West Coast	2 (1.54)	7	57.7

Round 10

Brisbane Lions 93 - 76 Richmond
Gabba (QLD)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.685703 - 0.314297RealScores: 93.347848 - 75.589187

Collingwood 84 - 79 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.544096 - 0.455904RealScores: 83.625834 - 79.415592

Essendon 86 - 75 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.608513 - 0.391487RealScores: 85.738671 - 75.242513

Gold Coast 75 - 82 Geelong Geelong
Marrara Oval (NT)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.434527 - 0.565473RealScores: 75.229448 - 81.656678

Greater Western Sydney 84 - 72 Western Bulldogs
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.629002 - 0.370998RealScores: 83.973214 - 71.589329

Port Adelaide 89 - 72 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.680992 - 0.319008RealScores: 88.984548 - 71.687561

St Kilda 66 - 69 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.471895 - 0.528105RealScores: 66.301772 - 68.886643

Sydney Sydney 77 - 73 Carlton Carlton
S.C.G. (NSW)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.542090 - 0.457910RealScores: 77.402073 - 73.397153

West Coast 58 - 102 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.12 wins - 0.88 winsRealProbs: 0.117043 - 0.882957RealScores: 58.343566 - 101.703078

		W	L	%
1	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.00)	4	118.2
2	Collingwood	6 (5.74)	4	113.2
3	Melbourne	6 (5.64)	4	111.6
4	Adelaide	6 (5.70)	4	110.8
5	Port Adelaide	6 (5.58)	4	109.8
6	Fremantle	6 (5.50)	4	109.2
7	Western Bulldogs	6 (5.51)	4	109.2
8	Geelong	5 (5.45)	5	107.5
9	Brisbane Lions	5 (5.43)	5	107.1
10	Sydney	5 (5.38)	5	106.6
11	Gold Coast	5 (5.26)	5	104.7
12	Carlton	5 (5.16)	5	102.6
13	Richmond	5 (5.07)	5	101.3
14	Essendon	5 (4.53)	5	92.9
15	Hawthorn	5 (4.55)	5	92.8
16	St Kilda	4 (4.33)	6	89.0
17	North Melbourne	3 (3.47)	7	79.3
18	West Coast	2 (1.70)	8	57.7

Round 11

Adelaide 125 - 58 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.99 wins - 0.01 winsRealProbs: 0.990000 - 0.010000RealScores: 124.550073 - 58.378196

Carlton Carlton 82 - 68 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.655723 - 0.344277RealScores: 82.492204 - 67.617206

Fremantle 76 - 66 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.600556 - 0.399444RealScores: 76.257433 - 66.493887

Geelong Geelong 83 - 73 Greater Western Sydney
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.605423 - 0.394577RealScores: 83.457044 - 73.245284

Hawthorn 73 - 82 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.398892 - 0.601108RealScores: 72.681010 - 82.495371

Melbourne 77 - 58 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.697789 - 0.302211RealScores: 77.420003 - 58.459171

North Melbourne 79 - 98 Port Adelaide
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.30 wins - 0.70 winsRealProbs: 0.298489 - 0.701511RealScores: 78.681750 - 98.018415

Richmond 85 - 76 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.599672 - 0.400328RealScores: 85.300924 - 75.618871

Western Bulldogs 83 - 74 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.592416 - 0.407584RealScores: 82.598451 - 73.585871

		W	L	%
1	Adelaide	7 (6.65)	4	117.9
2	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.41)	5	115.1
3	Melbourne	6 (6.31)	5	113.2
4	Port Adelaide	6 (6.25)	5	111.2
5	Collingwood	6 (6.16)	5	110.7
6	Fremantle	6 (6.09)	5	109.7
7	Western Bulldogs	6 (6.09)	5	109.5
8	Geelong	6 (6.04)	5	108.1
9	Brisbane Lions	6 (6.02)	5	107.6
10	Sydney	6 (5.80)	5	104.9
11	Carlton	6 (5.79)	5	104.2
12	Gold Coast	6 (5.63)	5	102.5
13	Richmond	6 (5.66)	5	102.2
14	Essendon	5 (4.94)	6	92.5
15	Hawthorn	5 (4.96)	6	92.3
16	St Kilda	5 (4.66)	6	87.8
17	North Melbourne	4 (3.80)	7	79.4
18	West Coast	2 (1.75)	9	56.6

Round 12

Collingwood 77 - 76 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.511823 - 0.488177RealScores: 76.605827 - 75.915412

Geelong Geelong 92 - 73 Richmond
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.694516 - 0.305484RealScores: 91.810510 - 73.177936

Gold Coast 84 - 69 Essendon
Carrara (QLD)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.662202 - 0.337798RealScores: 84.402107 - 68.913769

Hawthorn 76 - 85 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.403126 - 0.596874RealScores: 75.684777 - 85.108913

Melbourne 73 - 64 Fremantle
Traeger Park (NT)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.592039 - 0.407961RealScores: 72.862649 - 63.941651

Port Adelaide 85 - 77 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.582314 - 0.417686RealScores: 84.769908 - 76.885816

West Coast 63 - 88 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.252556 - 0.747444RealScores: 63.293174 - 87.538553

		W	L	%
1	Adelaide	7 (7.23)	5	117.4
2	Melbourne	7 (6.89)	5	113.3
3	Port Adelaide	7 (6.82)	5	111.1
4	Collingwood	7 (6.66)	5	109.8
5	Geelong	7 (6.70)	5	109.5
6	Western Bulldogs	7 (6.59)	5	108.6
7	Fremantle	7 (6.51)	5	107.8
8	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.41)	5	115.1
9	Brisbane Lions	6 (6.02)	5	107.6
10	Sydney	6 (5.80)	5	104.9
11	Gold Coast	6 (6.27)	6	104.0
12	Carlton	6 (6.22)	6	102.9
13	Richmond	6 (6.00)	6	100.1
14	Hawthorn	5 (5.38)	7	92.0
15	Essendon	5 (5.30)	7	91.5
16	St Kilda	5 (5.37)	7	91.3
17	North Melbourne	4 (3.80)	7	79.4
18	West Coast	2 (2.04)	10	57.6

Round 13

Adelaide 99 - 76 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.728601 - 0.271399RealScores: 98.594713 - 76.429488

Collingwood 69 - 74 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.450817 - 0.549183RealScores: 69.207965 - 73.512940

Essendon 68 - 81 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.356117 - 0.643883RealScores: 67.651799 - 81.416635

Hawthorn 68 - 81 Greater Western Sydney
York Park (TAS)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.362395 - 0.637605RealScores: 68.317804 - 81.498455

St Kilda 72 - 71 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.506689 - 0.493311RealScores: 71.873897 - 71.802655

Sydney Sydney 79 - 78 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.519861 - 0.480139RealScores: 79.463117 - 78.098970

West Coast 73 - 95 North Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.28 wins - 0.72 winsRealProbs: 0.275482 - 0.724518RealScores: 73.453373 - 95.180857

Western Bulldogs 81 - 80 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.517747 - 0.482253RealScores: 81.148868 - 79.993353

		W	L	%
1	Adelaide	8 (7.92)	5	118.3
2	Greater Western Sydney	7 (7.03)	5	115.4
3	Melbourne	7 (7.42)	6	112.7
4	Port Adelaide	7 (6.82)	5	111.1
5	Collingwood	7 (7.12)	6	108.6
6	Geelong	7 (7.20)	6	108.6
7	Western Bulldogs	7 (7.09)	6	108.0
8	Fremantle	7 (6.51)	5	107.8
9	Brisbane Lions	7 (6.51)	5	106.8
10	Carlton	7 (6.85)	6	104.2
11	Gold Coast	7 (6.77)	6	103.7
12	Sydney	6 (6.30)	6	104.6
13	Richmond	6 (6.30)	7	98.0
14	St Kilda	6 (5.87)	7	92.0
15	Hawthorn	6 (5.76)	7	91.4
16	Essendon	6 (5.68)	7	90.9
17	North Melbourne	4 (4.48)	8	82.8
18	West Coast	2 (2.35)	11	59.0

Round 14

Adelaide 93 - 74 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.696592 - 0.303408RealScores: 92.947010 - 74.106476

Brisbane Lions 87 - 63 St Kilda
Gabba (QLD)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.745208 - 0.254792RealScores: 86.896550 - 62.903474

Greater Western Sydney 91 - 76 Port Adelaide
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.659899 - 0.340101RealScores: 91.094806 - 75.824972

North Melbourne 70 - 92 Collingwood
Docklands (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.274837 - 0.725163RealScores: 69.774255 - 91.570543

Richmond 81 - 75 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.566096 - 0.433904RealScores: 81.221874 - 75.305889

Western Bulldogs 78 - 68 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.603529 - 0.396471RealScores: 77.984767 - 68.117250

		W	L	%
1	Adelaide	9 (8.59)	5	118.8
2	Greater Western Sydney	8 (7.66)	5	115.8
3	Collingwood	8 (7.81)	6	110.2
4	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.68)	6	108.4
5	Melbourne	7 (7.42)	6	112.7
6	Brisbane Lions	7 (7.22)	6	108.8
7	Port Adelaide	7 (7.18)	6	108.6
8	Geelong	7 (7.20)	6	108.6
9	Fremantle	7 (6.93)	6	106.1
10	Carlton	7 (6.85)	6	104.2
11	Gold Coast	7 (6.77)	6	103.7
12	Sydney	7 (6.64)	6	102.3
13	Richmond	7 (6.85)	7	98.7
14	Hawthorn	6 (6.21)	8	91.5
15	Essendon	6 (5.68)	7	90.9
16	St Kilda	6 (6.16)	8	90.4
17	North Melbourne	5 (4.79)	8	82.3
18	West Coast	2 (2.35)	11	59.0

Round 15

Carlton Carlton 77 - 75 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.525248 - 0.474752RealScores: 76.822382 - 75.142365

Essendon 104 - 57 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.902803 - 0.097197RealScores: 104.025819 - 57.052380

Fremantle 80 - 65 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.661880 - 0.338120RealScores: 80.454551 - 64.996777

Greater Western Sydney 83 - 73 Sydney Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.603371 - 0.396629RealScores: 82.705410 - 72.986354

Melbourne 93 - 62 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.799399 - 0.200601RealScores: 93.048935 - 62.453353

Port Adelaide 87 - 86 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.518660 - 0.481340RealScores: 86.967984 - 85.936171

		W	L	%
1	Adelaide	9 (8.59)	5	118.8
2	Greater Western Sydney	8 (8.25)	6	115.6
3	Melbourne	8 (8.18)	6	115.1
4	Collingwood	8 (7.81)	6	110.2
5	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.68)	6	108.4
6	Port Adelaide	8 (7.68)	6	108.1
7	Brisbane Lions	8 (7.72)	6	108.0
8	Geelong	8 (7.69)	6	107.8
9	Fremantle	8 (7.56)	6	107.3
10	Carlton	7 (7.35)	7	104.0
11	Gold Coast	7 (7.13)	7	102.0
12	Sydney	7 (7.05)	7	101.2
13	Richmond	7 (6.85)	7	98.7
14	Essendon	7 (6.54)	7	95.6
15	Hawthorn	6 (6.21)	8	91.5
16	St Kilda	6 (6.16)	8	90.4
17	North Melbourne	5 (5.04)	9	81.2
18	West Coast	2 (2.50)	12	58.7

Round 16

Adelaide 89 - 77 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.622486 - 0.377514RealScores: 88.829626 - 77.161791

Brisbane Lions 78 - 72 Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.571810 - 0.428190RealScores: 78.404342 - 72.128223

Geelong Geelong 86 - 70 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.673217 - 0.326783RealScores: 86.271809 - 69.729222

Gold Coast 77 - 75 Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.523735 - 0.476265RealScores: 76.662064 - 75.229004

North Melbourne 71 - 94 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.267750 - 0.732250RealScores: 71.238959 - 93.799144

Richmond 75 - 82 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.421818 - 0.578182RealScores: 75.436640 - 82.373587

St Kilda 76 - 79 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.453421 - 0.546579RealScores: 75.596947 - 79.300982

Sydney Sydney 77 - 69 Fremantle
S.C.G. (NSW)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.583435 - 0.416565RealScores: 76.823362 - 69.338174

West Coast 64 - 94 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.20 wins - 0.80 winsRealProbs: 0.203639 - 0.796361RealScores: 63.836024 - 94.031771

		W	L	%
1	Adelaide	9 (9.19)	6	118.5
2	Melbourne	9 (8.63)	6	113.4
3	Greater Western Sydney	9 (8.65)	6	113.3
4	Western Bulldogs	8 (8.37)	7	109.9
5	Collingwood	8 (8.31)	7	109.3
6	Geelong	8 (8.34)	7	108.8
7	Brisbane Lions	8 (8.27)	7	108.0
8	Port Adelaide	8 (8.21)	7	107.9
9	Fremantle	8 (8.00)	7	106.0
10	Carlton	8 (7.91)	7	104.4
11	Gold Coast	8 (7.63)	7	102.0
12	Sydney	8 (7.61)	7	101.8
13	Richmond	7 (7.29)	8	98.2
14	Hawthorn	7 (6.96)	8	94.5
15	Essendon	7 (6.90)	8	94.5
16	St Kilda	7 (6.64)	8	90.7
17	North Melbourne	5 (5.34)	10	80.8
18	West Coast	3 (2.74)	12	59.3

Round 17

Brisbane Lions 89 - 83 Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.569348 - 0.430652RealScores: 88.936745 - 83.019264

Collingwood 83 - 68 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.664087 - 0.335913RealScores: 83.225799 - 67.558117

Fremantle 84 - 69 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.648653 - 0.351347RealScores: 83.536874 - 69.326283

Geelong Geelong 87 - 64 Hawthorn
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.732854 - 0.267146RealScores: 87.064371 - 64.438513

Greater Western Sydney 80 - 70 Carlton Carlton
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.616067 - 0.383933RealScores: 80.486856 - 69.639416

Melbourne 113 - 47 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.99 wins - 0.01 winsRealProbs: 0.987692 - 0.012308RealScores: 112.816513 - 47.230130

North Melbourne 76 - 88 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.372322 - 0.627678RealScores: 75.841542 - 87.956963

Port Adelaide 89 - 79 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.610865 - 0.389135RealScores: 88.854005 - 78.568865

St Kilda 70 - 74 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.447459 - 0.552541RealScores: 70.170217 - 74.376085

		W	L	%
1	Melbourne	10 (9.57)	6	118.8
2	Adelaide	10 (9.64)	6	116.7
3	Greater Western Sydney	9 (9.24)	7	113.4
4	Geelong	9 (9.03)	7	110.2
5	Collingwood	9 (8.94)	7	110.1
6	Western Bulldogs	9 (8.79)	7	108.3
7	Port Adelaide	9 (8.79)	7	108.2
8	Brisbane Lions	9 (8.82)	7	108.0
9	Fremantle	9 (8.62)	7	106.9
10	Carlton	8 (8.32)	8	103.2
11	Gold Coast	8 (8.24)	8	102.9
12	Sydney	8 (8.14)	8	102.1
13	Richmond	8 (7.67)	8	97.2
14	Essendon	7 (7.26)	9	93.6
15	Hawthorn	7 (7.27)	9	93.1
16	St Kilda	7 (7.11)	9	90.9
17	North Melbourne	6 (5.74)	10	81.1
18	West Coast	3 (2.80)	13	58.1

Round 18

Adelaide 92 - 63 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.788996 - 0.211004RealScores: 92.244494 - 63.002501

Collingwood 77 - 76 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.520086 - 0.479914RealScores: 77.355245 - 76.456366

Gold Coast 86 - 81 Port Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.562431 - 0.437569RealScores: 85.892513 - 80.779728

Hawthorn 68 - 73 Fremantle
York Park (TAS)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.438412 - 0.561588RealScores: 67.598010 - 72.625110

Melbourne 82 - 63 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.706239 - 0.293761RealScores: 82.395451 - 62.577219

Richmond 80 - 83 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.458672 - 0.541328RealScores: 80.053003 - 83.042911

Sydney Sydney 97 - 68 North Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.781042 - 0.218958RealScores: 96.580409 - 68.343740

West Coast 62 - 114 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.07 wins - 0.93 winsRealProbs: 0.070837 - 0.929163RealScores: 62.024364 - 114.203459

Western Bulldogs 76 - 75 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.511402 - 0.488598RealScores: 75.385203 - 75.328637

		W	L	%
1	Melbourne	10 (10.24)	7	119.5
2	Adelaide	10 (10.39)	7	118.2
3	Greater Western Sydney	10 (9.76)	7	112.8
4	Brisbane Lions	10 (9.70)	7	111.6
5	Geelong	10 (9.53)	7	109.5
6	Collingwood	9 (9.44)	8	109.6
7	Western Bulldogs	9 (9.29)	8	107.8
8	Port Adelaide	9 (9.26)	8	107.3
9	Fremantle	9 (9.16)	8	106.9
10	Sydney	9 (8.88)	8	104.1
11	Gold Coast	9 (8.78)	8	103.1
12	Carlton	9 (8.82)	8	103.0
13	Richmond	8 (8.16)	9	97.2
14	Hawthorn	8 (7.73)	9	93.1
15	Essendon	8 (7.59)	9	92.6
16	St Kilda	7 (7.37)	10	89.3
17	North Melbourne	6 (6.00)	11	80.5
18	West Coast	3 (2.91)	14	57.8

Round 19

Brisbane Lions 88 - 73 Sydney Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.656237 - 0.343763RealScores: 88.098909 - 73.175442

Carlton Carlton 92 - 67 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.752364 - 0.247636RealScores: 92.182750 - 67.376801

Essendon 76 - 89 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.363584 - 0.636416RealScores: 76.392871 - 89.243229

Fremantle 70 - 66 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.551416 - 0.448584RealScores: 70.357376 - 66.446924

Geelong Geelong 86 - 72 Western Bulldogs
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.648549 - 0.351451RealScores: 85.824350 - 71.623506

Greater Western Sydney 86 - 69 Gold Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.675190 - 0.324810RealScores: 85.893155 - 69.159934

Hawthorn 68 - 79 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.380240 - 0.619760RealScores: 67.746823 - 78.774682

Port Adelaide 95 - 80 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.649573 - 0.350427RealScores: 94.729190 - 80.432394

St Kilda 98 - 53 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.89 wins - 0.11 winsRealProbs: 0.890733 - 0.109267RealScores: 97.788691 - 53.043037

		W	L	%
1	Adelaide	11 (11.00)	7	118.1
2	Melbourne	11 (10.72)	7	118.1
3	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.40)	8	113.4
4	Brisbane Lions	10 (10.33)	8	112.1
5	Geelong	10 (10.15)	8	110.1
6	Collingwood	10 (10.04)	8	109.9
7	Port Adelaide	10 (9.88)	8	107.9
8	Fremantle	10 (9.68)	8	106.9
9	Western Bulldogs	10 (9.66)	8	106.3
10	Carlton	10 (9.52)	8	104.7
11	Sydney	9 (9.25)	9	102.8
12	Gold Coast	9 (9.13)	9	101.7
13	Richmond	9 (8.53)	9	96.4
14	St Kilda	8 (8.21)	10	93.0
15	Hawthorn	8 (8.14)	10	92.7
16	Essendon	8 (7.98)	10	92.1
17	North Melbourne	6 (6.29)	12	80.1
18	West Coast	3 (3.07)	15	57.7

Round 20

Adelaide 94 - 67 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.765608 - 0.234392RealScores: 93.574051 - 67.219640

Carlton Carlton 87 - 75 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.632249 - 0.367751RealScores: 86.970677 - 74.685047

Collingwood 84 - 75 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.600273 - 0.399727RealScores: 84.257343 - 75.411659

Fremantle 104 - 52 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.928096 - 0.071904RealScores: 104.436005 - 52.477173

Gold Coast 76 - 85 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.400741 - 0.599259RealScores: 75.935446 - 84.674243

Melbourne 78 - 68 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.611809 - 0.388191RealScores: 77.691476 - 67.619891

North Melbourne 71 - 96 Geelong Geelong
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.247584 - 0.752416RealScores: 71.180128 - 95.992037

St Kilda 71 - 70 Essendon
Docklands (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.522381 - 0.477619RealScores: 71.349991 - 70.385625

Sydney Sydney 81 - 75 Western Bulldogs
S.C.G. (NSW)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.569806 - 0.430194RealScores: 80.934483 - 75.249840

		W	L	%
1	Adelaide	12 (11.72)	7	119.1
2	Melbourne	11 (11.30)	8	117.9
3	Brisbane Lions	11 (10.90)	8	112.1
4	Greater Western Sydney	11 (10.82)	8	111.9
5	Geelong	11 (10.86)	8	111.3
6	Fremantle	11 (10.56)	8	110.5
7	Collingwood	11 (10.61)	8	110.0
8	Port Adelaide	10 (10.28)	9	106.6
9	Western Bulldogs	10 (10.12)	9	105.5
10	Carlton	10 (10.13)	9	105.3
11	Sydney	10 (9.79)	9	103.0
12	Gold Coast	10 (9.56)	9	101.0
13	Richmond	9 (8.96)	10	96.0
14	St Kilda	9 (8.71)	10	93.4
15	Essendon	8 (8.48)	11	92.4
16	Hawthorn	8 (8.42)	11	91.4
17	North Melbourne	7 (6.59)	12	79.7
18	West Coast	3 (3.19)	16	57.3

Round 21

Collingwood 74 - 73 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.522756 - 0.477244RealScores: 74.086391 - 73.158849

Essendon 71 - 73 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.459391 - 0.540609RealScores: 70.789903 - 73.464291

Geelong Geelong 89 - 79 Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.612427 - 0.387573RealScores: 89.075261 - 79.032002

Greater Western Sydney 86 - 64 Hawthorn
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.722395 - 0.277605RealScores: 85.658908 - 64.157351

North Melbourne 78 - 94 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.326760 - 0.673240RealScores: 77.605247 - 94.150053

Port Adelaide 89 - 79 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.614455 - 0.385545RealScores: 88.874698 - 78.614588

St Kilda 69 - 81 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.371803 - 0.628197RealScores: 69.028244 - 80.771779

West Coast 64 - 102 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.14 wins - 0.86 winsRealProbs: 0.144894 - 0.855106RealScores: 63.765126 - 102.457809

Western Bulldogs 71 - 75 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.448022 - 0.551978RealScores: 71.150783 - 74.954190

		W	L	%
1	Adelaide	12 (12.14)	8	117.3
2	Melbourne	12 (11.82)	8	117.2
3	Greater Western Sydney	11 (11.50)	9	112.9
4	Brisbane Lions	11 (11.50)	9	112.3
5	Geelong	11 (11.44)	9	111.4
6	Fremantle	11 (11.07)	9	110.2
7	Collingwood	11 (11.11)	9	109.6
8	Port Adelaide	11 (10.86)	9	106.9
9	Western Bulldogs	11 (10.61)	9	105.0
10	Carlton	11 (10.63)	9	105.0
11	Gold Coast	10 (10.37)	10	103.5
12	Sydney	10 (10.21)	10	102.2
13	Richmond	10 (9.60)	10	97.2
14	St Kilda	9 (9.11)	11	93.0
15	Essendon	9 (8.97)	11	92.6
16	Hawthorn	9 (8.74)	11	90.5
17	North Melbourne	7 (6.95)	13	79.9
18	West Coast	3 (3.38)	17	57.5

Round 22

Adelaide 93 - 74 Western Bulldogs
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.695533 - 0.304467RealScores: 92.821322 - 74.087009

Brisbane Lions 84 - 76 Greater Western Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.598240 - 0.401760RealScores: 84.376625 - 75.922505

Carlton Carlton 79 - 66 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.643763 - 0.356237RealScores: 79.096311 - 65.740043

Essendon 76 - 77 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.479399 - 0.520601RealScores: 76.333222 - 76.982654

Fremantle 77 - 70 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.583413 - 0.416587RealScores: 77.156757 - 70.243552

Melbourne 87 - 70 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.680283 - 0.319717RealScores: 87.002841 - 69.775032

North Melbourne 103 - 66 West Coast
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.85 wins - 0.15 winsRealProbs: 0.845900 - 0.154100RealScores: 102.940468 - 65.693762

Richmond 79 - 72 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.583820 - 0.416180RealScores: 78.875868 - 71.920773

Sydney Sydney 79 - 74 Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.569552 - 0.430448RealScores: 79.048153 - 73.552855

		W	L	%
1	Adelaide	13 (12.79)	8	117.7
2	Melbourne	12 (12.46)	9	117.6
3	Brisbane Lions	12 (12.06)	9	112.2
4	Greater Western Sydney	12 (11.93)	9	111.6
5	Geelong	12 (11.89)	9	110.4
6	Fremantle	12 (11.62)	9	110.2
7	Collingwood	12 (11.57)	9	108.7
8	Carlton	11 (11.24)	10	105.6
9	Port Adelaide	11 (11.22)	10	105.6
10	Western Bulldogs	11 (10.95)	10	103.6
11	Gold Coast	11 (10.87)	10	103.3
12	Sydney	11 (10.74)	10	102.4
13	Richmond	10 (10.15)	11	97.7
14	St Kilda	10 (9.57)	11	92.9
15	Essendon	9 (9.47)	12	92.9
16	Hawthorn	9 (9.13)	12	90.2
17	North Melbourne	8 (7.74)	13	82.6
18	West Coast	4 (3.59)	17	57.8

Round 23

Collingwood 81 - 77 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.553922 - 0.446078RealScores: 80.630866 - 76.782091

Essendon 75 - 79 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.441264 - 0.558736RealScores: 74.954574 - 79.284273

Gold Coast 71 - 75 Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.444884 - 0.555116RealScores: 70.834879 - 74.802704

Greater Western Sydney 80 - 66 Fremantle
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.650814 - 0.349186RealScores: 79.849835 - 65.804942

Hawthorn 76 - 80 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.442683 - 0.557317RealScores: 76.170050 - 80.357713

Port Adelaide 85 - 94 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.392240 - 0.607760RealScores: 84.865623 - 94.238304

St Kilda 67 - 79 Geelong Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.367904 - 0.632096RealScores: 67.113569 - 79.096710

West Coast 59 - 104 Carlton Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.11 wins - 0.89 winsRealProbs: 0.111501 - 0.888499RealScores: 59.331676 - 103.675249

Western Bulldogs 95 - 70 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.752507 - 0.247493RealScores: 94.930251 - 70.107853

		W	L	%
1	Adelaide	13 (13.36)	9	117.4
2	Melbourne	13 (12.98)	9	117.0
3	Greater Western Sydney	13 (12.55)	9	112.0
4	Brisbane Lions	13 (12.54)	9	111.4
5	Geelong	12 (12.49)	10	110.7
6	Fremantle	12 (12.01)	10	108.7
7	Collingwood	12 (12.09)	10	108.6
8	Carlton	12 (12.07)	10	108.2
9	Western Bulldogs	12 (11.65)	10	104.9
10	Port Adelaide	12 (11.65)	10	104.8
11	Gold Coast	11 (11.35)	11	103.0
12	Sydney	11 (11.27)	11	102.6
13	Richmond	11 (10.67)	11	98.1
14	Essendon	10 (9.95)	12	93.0
15	St Kilda	10 (9.97)	12	92.5
16	Hawthorn	10 (9.61)	12	90.4
17	North Melbourne	8 (8.04)	14	82.1
18	West Coast	4 (3.75)	18	57.8

Round 24

Brisbane Lions 93 - 67 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.763771 - 0.236229RealScores: 92.981473 - 66.845397

Carlton Carlton 77 - 63 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.657085 - 0.342915RealScores: 77.180044 - 62.526410

Fremantle 85 - 72 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.645583 - 0.354417RealScores: 85.023447 - 71.649792

Geelong Geelong 119 - 53 West Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.99 wins - 0.01 winsRealProbs: 0.990000 - 0.010000RealScores: 118.826206 - 52.654329

Hawthorn 86 - 71 North Melbourne
York Park (TAS)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.653833 - 0.346167RealScores: 85.637367 - 71.347465

Melbourne 75 - 68 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.579501 - 0.420499RealScores: 74.539388 - 68.181517

Richmond 86 - 77 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.601951 - 0.398049RealScores: 85.622608 - 76.941644

Sydney Sydney 83 - 84 Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.470095 - 0.529905RealScores: 82.817104 - 84.236381

Western Bulldogs 79 - 77 Greater Western Sydney
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.533112 - 0.466888RealScores: 78.646812 - 76.915731

		W	L	%
1	Melbourne	14 (13.52)	9	116.7
2	Adelaide	14 (13.86)	9	116.6
3	Geelong	13 (13.43)	10	114.3
4	Brisbane Lions	13 (13.25)	10	112.5
5	Greater Western Sydney	13 (13.05)	10	111.4
6	Fremantle	13 (12.61)	10	109.2
7	Carlton	13 (12.69)	10	108.7
8	Collingwood	13 (12.55)	10	107.8
9	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.15)	11	104.8
10	Port Adelaide	12 (12.04)	11	103.8
11	Sydney	12 (11.77)	11	102.4
12	Gold Coast	12 (11.79)	11	102.3
13	Richmond	11 (11.23)	12	98.6
14	St Kilda	10 (10.36)	13	92.0
15	Essendon	10 (10.24)	13	91.9
16	Hawthorn	10 (10.23)	13	91.5
17	North Melbourne	8 (8.42)	15	82.2
18	West Coast	4 (3.81)	19	57.1

Round 25

		W	L	%
1	Melbourne	14 (13.52)	9	116.7
2	Adelaide	14 (13.86)	9	116.6
3	Geelong	13 (13.43)	10	114.3
4	Brisbane Lions	13 (13.25)	10	112.5
5	Greater Western Sydney	13 (13.05)	10	111.4
6	Fremantle	13 (12.61)	10	109.2
7	Carlton	13 (12.69)	10	108.7
8	Collingwood	13 (12.55)	10	107.8
9	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.15)	11	104.8
10	Port Adelaide	12 (12.04)	11	103.8
11	Sydney	12 (11.77)	11	102.4
12	Gold Coast	12 (11.79)	11	102.3
13	Richmond	11 (11.23)	12	98.6
14	St Kilda	10 (10.36)	13	92.0
15	Essendon	10 (10.24)	13	91.9
16	Hawthorn	10 (10.23)	13	91.5
17	North Melbourne	8 (8.42)	15	82.2
18	West Coast	4 (3.81)	19	57.1

Round 26

		W	L	%
1	Melbourne	14 (13.52)	9	116.7
2	Adelaide	14 (13.86)	9	116.6
3	Geelong	13 (13.43)	10	114.3
4	Brisbane Lions	13 (13.25)	10	112.5
5	Greater Western Sydney	13 (13.05)	10	111.4
6	Fremantle	13 (12.61)	10	109.2
7	Carlton	13 (12.69)	10	108.7
8	Collingwood	13 (12.55)	10	107.8
9	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.15)	11	104.8
10	Port Adelaide	12 (12.04)	11	103.8
11	Sydney	12 (11.77)	11	102.4
12	Gold Coast	12 (11.79)	11	102.3
13	Richmond	11 (11.23)	12	98.6
14	St Kilda	10 (10.36)	13	92.0
15	Essendon	10 (10.24)	13	91.9
16	Hawthorn	10 (10.23)	13	91.5
17	North Melbourne	8 (8.42)	15	82.2
18	West Coast	4 (3.81)	19	57.1

Round 27

		W	L	%
1	Melbourne	14 (13.52)	9	116.7
2	Adelaide	14 (13.86)	9	116.6
3	Geelong	13 (13.43)	10	114.3
4	Brisbane Lions	13 (13.25)	10	112.5
5	Greater Western Sydney	13 (13.05)	10	111.4
6	Fremantle	13 (12.61)	10	109.2
7	Carlton	13 (12.69)	10	108.7
8	Collingwood	13 (12.55)	10	107.8
9	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.15)	11	104.8
10	Port Adelaide	12 (12.04)	11	103.8
11	Sydney	12 (11.77)	11	102.4
12	Gold Coast	12 (11.79)	11	102.3
13	Richmond	11 (11.23)	12	98.6
14	St Kilda	10 (10.36)	13	92.0
15	Essendon	10 (10.24)	13	91.9
16	Hawthorn	10 (10.23)	13	91.5
17	North Melbourne	8 (8.42)	15	82.2
18	West Coast	4 (3.81)	19	57.1

Round 28

		W	L	%
1	Melbourne	14 (13.52)	9	116.7
2	Adelaide	14 (13.86)	9	116.6
3	Geelong	13 (13.43)	10	114.3
4	Brisbane Lions	13 (13.25)	10	112.5
5	Greater Western Sydney	13 (13.05)	10	111.4
6	Fremantle	13 (12.61)	10	109.2
7	Carlton	13 (12.69)	10	108.7
8	Collingwood	13 (12.55)	10	107.8
9	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.15)	11	104.8
10	Port Adelaide	12 (12.04)	11	103.8
11	Sydney	12 (11.77)	11	102.4
12	Gold Coast	12 (11.79)	11	102.3
13	Richmond	11 (11.23)	12	98.6
14	St Kilda	10 (10.36)	13	92.0
15	Essendon	10 (10.24)	13	91.9
16	Hawthorn	10 (10.23)	13	91.5
17	North Melbourne	8 (8.42)	15	82.2
18	West Coast	4 (3.81)	19	57.1

FINALS: WEEK 1

Adelaide 92 - 80 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)

Melbourne 77 - 70 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)

Greater Western Sydney 82 - 70 Collingwood
Stadium Australia (NSW)

Carlton Carlton 76 - 65 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Brisbane Lions 84 - 76 Greater Western Sydney
Gabba (QLD)

Geelong Geelong 77 - 75 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Adelaide 91 - 77 Geelong Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)

Melbourne 80 - 71 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)

2024 AFL GRAND FINAL

Melbourne 83 - 73 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE7

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Melbourne	51.2	63.7	57.4
2	Adelaide	58.5	55.9	57.2
3	Greater Western Sydney	54.3	59.6	57.0
4	Brisbane Lions	56.2	57.5	56.8
5	Geelong	54.3	58.1	56.2
6	Carlton	50.9	59.5	55.2
7	Collingwood	51.3	58.5	54.9
8	Western Bulldogs	52.3	56.9	54.6
9	Fremantle	48.4	60.2	54.3
10	Sydney	51.9	56.4	54.1
11	Port Adelaide	55.4	52.5	53.9
12	Gold Coast	50.9	55.9	53.4
13	Richmond	52.6	52.3	52.4
14	Hawthorn	46.9	55.6	51.3
15	St Kilda	44.0	56.3	50.2
16	Essendon	47.1	52.9	50.0
17	North Melbourne	47.1	46.9	47.0
18	West Coast	36.4	39.0	37.7