Squiggle 2018

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011
Squiggle v1	61.4%	69.1%	70.9%	72.0%	72.5%	77.8%	77.6%
Squiggle 2.0*	64.7%	74.9%	73.8%	72.0%	73.0%	73.4%	77.0%
Squiggle 4*	65.7%	73.4%	73.8%	73.4%	74.4%	73.9%	77.6%

* Squiggle 2.0 and Squiggle 4 numbers before 2018 are "retro-dictions"—they were made after the result. This shows how well the model fits historical data, rather than how reliable its predictions have been in practice.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Sun Aug 19 21:00:34 2018 (R22)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

2018 ROUND 23 TIPS

Port Adelaide 78 - 67 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA: +12.7 pts

Geelong Geelong 113 - 47 Gold Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)
HGA: Geelong +12.9 pts

Richmond 100 - 54 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +2.3 pts

Fremantle 67 - 94 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: +13.0 pts

Carlton Carlton 67 - 99 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: Carlton +8.2 pts

Sydney Sydney 76 - 72 Hawthorn
S.C.G. (NSW)
HGA: Sydney +12.1 pts

Brisbane Lions 80 - 90 West Coast
Gabba (QLD)
HGA: +12.8 pts

Melbourne 93 - 78 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +9.5 pts

St Kilda 78 - 88 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: +0.8 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE4
Tips after Round 22: 136

History...

In 2018, algorithm SQUIGGLE4 correctly tipped 136 games at an accuracy of 71.96%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1

North Melbourne (71) lost to Melbourne (124) at Kingston Twin Ovals (TAS) [Melbourne by 53)
Essendon (37) lost to Richmond (124) at Norm Minns Oval (VIC) [Richmond by 87)
Adelaide (91) defeated Fremantle (81) at Strathalbyn Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 10)
West Coast (56) defeated Port Adelaide (54) at Leederville Oval (WA) [West Coast by 2)
Carlton (89) defeated St Kilda (67) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 22)
Greater Western Sydney (96) defeated Collingwood (36) at Manuka Oval (ACT) [Greater Western Sydney by 60)
Western Bulldogs (100) defeated Hawthorn (78) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 22)
Brisbane Lions (40) lost to Sydney (95) at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex (QLD) [Sydney by 55)
Gold Coast (85) defeated Geelong (29) at Riverway Stadium (QLD) [Gold Coast by 56)

Round 0.2

Richmond (128) defeated North Melbourne (58) at Princes Park (VIC) [Richmond by 70)
Melbourne (119) defeated St Kilda (93) at Casey Fields (VIC) [Melbourne by 26)
Sydney (82) defeated Greater Western Sydney (71) at Blacktown (NSW) [Sydney by 11)
Collingwood (113) defeated Western Bulldogs (80) at Ted Summerton Reserve (VIC) [Collingwood by 33)
Adelaide (72) lost to Port Adelaide (98) at Alberton Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 26)
Hawthorn (97) lost to Carlton (102) at York Park (TAS) [Carlton by 5)
Geelong (97) lost to Essendon (101) at Central Reserve (VIC) [Essendon by 4)
Gold Coast (49) defeated Brisbane Lions (42) at Fankhauser Reserve (QLD) [Gold Coast by 7)
Fremantle (101) defeated West Coast (39) at Arena Joondalup (WA) [Fremantle by 62)

Round 1

Richmond (121) defeated Carlton (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 26) Richmond by 30
Essendon (99) defeated Adelaide (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 12) Essendon by 5
St Kilda (107) defeated Brisbane Lions (82) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 25) St Kilda by 30
Port Adelaide (110) defeated Fremantle (60) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 50) Port Adelaide by 43
Gold Coast (55) defeated North Melbourne (39) at Cazaly's Stadium (QLD) [Gold Coast by 16) North Melbourne by 1
Hawthorn (101) defeated Collingwood (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 34) Collingwood by 6
Greater Western Sydney (133) defeated Western Bulldogs (51) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 82) Greater Western Sydney by 23
Melbourne (94) lost to Geelong (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 3) Geelong by 2
West Coast (86) lost to Sydney (115) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 29) Sydney by 15

Round 2

Adelaide (118) defeated Richmond (82) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 36) Adelaide by 2
North Melbourne (95) defeated St Kilda (43) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 52) St Kilda by 17
Carlton (67) lost to Gold Coast (101) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 34) Carlton by 7
Collingwood (79) lost to Greater Western Sydney (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 16) Greater Western Sydney by 21
Brisbane Lions (74) lost to Melbourne (100) at Gabba (QLD) [Melbourne by 26) Melbourne by 21
Fremantle (106) defeated Essendon (90) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 16) Essendon by 15
Western Bulldogs (70) lost to West Coast (121) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 51) Western Bulldogs by 3
Sydney (71) lost to Port Adelaide (94) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Port Adelaide by 23) Sydney by 9
Geelong (117) lost to Hawthorn (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 1) Hawthorn by 2

Round 3

Carlton (76) lost to Collingwood (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 24) Collingwood by 14
Port Adelaide (97) defeated Brisbane Lions (92) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 5) Port Adelaide by 62
Melbourne (123) defeated North Melbourne (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 37) Melbourne by 8
Gold Coast (68) lost to Fremantle (96) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 28) Fremantle by 8
St Kilda (55) lost to Adelaide (104) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 49) Adelaide by 36
Sydney (103) defeated Greater Western Sydney (87) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 16) Greater Western Sydney by 1
Richmond (102) defeated Hawthorn (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 13) Richmond by 23
Western Bulldogs (104) defeated Essendon (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 21) Essendon by 17
West Coast (95) defeated Geelong (80) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 15) West Coast by 3

Round 4

Adelaide (58) lost to Collingwood (106) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 48) Adelaide by 41
Greater Western Sydney (82) defeated Fremantle (51) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 31) Greater Western Sydney by 40
Richmond (110) defeated Brisbane Lions (17) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 93) Richmond by 57
Western Bulldogs (79) lost to Sydney (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 7) Sydney by 15
North Melbourne (116) defeated Carlton (30) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 86) North Melbourne by 22
West Coast (139) defeated Gold Coast (59) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 80) West Coast by 31
Essendon (106) defeated Port Adelaide (84) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 22) Port Adelaide by 19
Hawthorn (115) defeated Melbourne (48) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 67) Hawthorn by 1
Geelong (103) defeated St Kilda (56) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 47) Geelong by 29

Round 5

Sydney (75) lost to Adelaide (85) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Adelaide by 10) Sydney by 21
St Kilda (73) drew with Greater Western Sydney (73) at Docklands (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Greater Western Sydney by 21
Carlton (69) lost to West Coast (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [West Coast by 10) West Coast by 23
Port Adelaide (50) lost to Geelong (84) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 34) Port Adelaide by 22
Fremantle (108) defeated Western Bulldogs (54) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 54) Fremantle by 11
North Melbourne (98) defeated Hawthorn (70) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 28) Hawthorn by 4
Brisbane Lions (71) lost to Gold Coast (76) at Gabba (QLD) [Gold Coast by 5) Brisbane Lions by 7
Melbourne (56) lost to Richmond (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 46) Richmond by 30
Collingwood (101) defeated Essendon (52) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 49) Collingwood by 20

Round 6

Western Bulldogs (80) defeated Carlton (59) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 21) Western Bulldogs by 17
Geelong (69) lost to Sydney (86) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Sydney by 17) Geelong by 29
North Melbourne (69) lost to Port Adelaide (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 33) North Melbourne by 11
Greater Western Sydney (77) defeated Brisbane Lions (43) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 34) Greater Western Sydney by 52
Hawthorn (89) defeated St Kilda (54) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 35) Hawthorn by 25
Adelaide (110) defeated Gold Coast (62) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 48) Adelaide by 50
Essendon (72) lost to Melbourne (108) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 36) Melbourne by 7
Collingwood (70) lost to Richmond (113) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 43) Richmond by 20
Fremantle (81) lost to West Coast (89) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 8) West Coast by 7

Round 7

Geelong (93) defeated Greater Western Sydney (32) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 61) Geelong by 11
Western Bulldogs (81) defeated Gold Coast (72) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 9) Western Bulldogs by 21
Essendon (67) lost to Hawthorn (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 23) Hawthorn by 18
West Coast (102) defeated Port Adelaide (60) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 42) West Coast by 1
Sydney (66) lost to North Melbourne (68) at S.C.G. (NSW) [North Melbourne by 2) Sydney by 22
Adelaide (125) defeated Carlton (70) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 55) Adelaide by 53
Richmond (110) defeated Fremantle (33) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 77) Richmond by 51
St Kilda (67) lost to Melbourne (106) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 39) Melbourne by 17
Brisbane Lions (114) lost to Collingwood (121) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 7) Collingwood by 25

Round 8

Hawthorn (71) lost to Sydney (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 8) Hawthorn by 14
Greater Western Sydney (61) lost to West Coast (86) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [West Coast by 25) Greater Western Sydney by 28
Carlton (91) defeated Essendon (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 13) Essendon by 13
Gold Coast (77) lost to Melbourne (146) at Gabba (QLD) [Melbourne by 69) Melbourne by 5
Port Adelaide (95) defeated Adelaide (90) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 5) Port Adelaide by 1
Western Bulldogs (107) defeated Brisbane Lions (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 14) Western Bulldogs by 15
Fremantle (89) defeated St Kilda (59) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 30) Fremantle by 10
North Melbourne (72) lost to Richmond (82) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 10) Richmond by 29
Collingwood (45) lost to Geelong (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 21) Geelong by 8

Round 9

Adelaide (63) defeated Western Bulldogs (26) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 37) Adelaide by 23
North Melbourne (112) defeated Greater Western Sydney (69) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 43) North Melbourne by 15
Gold Coast (42) lost to Port Adelaide (82) at Jiangwan Stadium (CHI) [Port Adelaide by 40) Port Adelaide by 35
Essendon (84) defeated Geelong (50) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 34) Geelong by 33
St Kilda (72) lost to Collingwood (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 28) Collingwood by 33
Sydney (111) defeated Fremantle (52) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 59) Sydney by 30
Carlton (50) lost to Melbourne (159) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 109) Melbourne by 35
Brisbane Lions (129) defeated Hawthorn (73) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 56) Hawthorn by 9
West Coast (130) defeated Richmond (83) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 47) Richmond by 9

Round 10

Collingwood (90) defeated Western Bulldogs (55) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 35) Collingwood by 21
Richmond (105) defeated St Kilda (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 28) Richmond by 49
Brisbane Lions (49) lost to Sydney (67) at Gabba (QLD) [Sydney by 18) Sydney by 9
Geelong (73) defeated Carlton (45) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 28) Geelong by 40
Greater Western Sydney (60) lost to Essendon (95) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Essendon by 35) Greater Western Sydney by 24
Hawthorn (60) lost to West Coast (75) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 15) West Coast by 5
Melbourne (146) defeated Adelaide (55) at Traeger Park (NT) [Melbourne by 91) Melbourne by 3
Fremantle (58) lost to North Melbourne (86) at Perth Stadium (WA) [North Melbourne by 28) Fremantle by 2

Round 11

Sydney (91) defeated Carlton (61) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 30) Sydney by 46
Western Bulldogs (51) lost to Melbourne (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 49) Melbourne by 31
Hawthorn (64) defeated Port Adelaide (61) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 3) Hawthorn by 7
Gold Coast (36) lost to Geelong (121) at Carrara (QLD) [Geelong by 85) Geelong by 15
Essendon (43) lost to Richmond (114) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 71) Richmond by 33
West Coast (101) defeated St Kilda (88) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 13) West Coast by 45
North Melbourne (141) defeated Brisbane Lions (87) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 54) North Melbourne by 27
Collingwood (138) defeated Fremantle (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 61) Collingwood by 38
Adelaide (81) lost to Greater Western Sydney (97) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 16) Adelaide by 13

Round 12

Port Adelaide (72) defeated Richmond (58) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 14) Richmond by 6
Geelong (96) defeated North Melbourne (59) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 37) Geelong by 13
Greater Western Sydney (134) defeated Gold Coast (26) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 108) Greater Western Sydney by 50
St Kilda (55) lost to Sydney (126) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 71) Sydney by 10
Brisbane Lions (62) lost to Essendon (84) at Gabba (QLD) [Essendon by 22) Essendon by 1
Fremantle (71) defeated Adelaide (68) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 3) Adelaide by 3
Melbourne (91) lost to Collingwood (133) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 42) Collingwood by 1

Round 13

Port Adelaide (132) defeated Western Bulldogs (75) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 57) Port Adelaide by 36
Sydney (72) defeated West Coast (57) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 15) Sydney by 13
Carlton (46) lost to Fremantle (103) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 57) Fremantle by 5
Gold Coast (78) lost to St Kilda (80) at Carrara (QLD) [St Kilda by 2) St Kilda by 10
Hawthorn (88) defeated Adelaide (32) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 56) Hawthorn by 9
Geelong (65) lost to Richmond (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 18) Richmond by 28

Round 14

West Coast (52) lost to Essendon (80) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Essendon by 28) West Coast by 23
Port Adelaide (75) defeated Melbourne (65) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 10) Port Adelaide by 14
Hawthorn (96) defeated Gold Coast (43) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 53) Hawthorn by 51
Brisbane Lions (82) lost to Greater Western Sydney (109) at Gabba (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 27) Greater Western Sydney by 13
Western Bulldogs (75) lost to North Melbourne (77) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 2) North Melbourne by 33
Collingwood (79) defeated Carlton (59) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 20) Collingwood by 42

Round 15

Richmond (93) defeated Sydney (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 26) Richmond by 32
Western Bulldogs (103) defeated Geelong (101) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 2) Geelong by 26
Carlton (69) lost to Port Adelaide (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 21) Port Adelaide by 23
Adelaide (88) defeated West Coast (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 10) Adelaide by 2
Gold Coast (60) lost to Collingwood (99) at Carrara (QLD) [Collingwood by 39) Collingwood by 33
Greater Western Sydney (95) defeated Hawthorn (84) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 11) Greater Western Sydney by 23
Melbourne (117) lost to St Kilda (119) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 2) Melbourne by 31
Essendon (125) defeated North Melbourne (108) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 17) North Melbourne by 4
Fremantle (64) lost to Brisbane Lions (119) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Brisbane Lions by 55) Fremantle by 19

Round 16

Sydney (59) lost to Geelong (71) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Geelong by 12) Sydney by 8
Richmond (103) defeated Adelaide (56) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 47) Richmond by 36
Brisbane Lions (120) defeated Carlton (55) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 65) Brisbane Lions by 31
Port Adelaide (86) defeated St Kilda (50) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 36) Port Adelaide by 34
Western Bulldogs (59) lost to Hawthorn (122) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 63) Hawthorn by 12
Melbourne (102) defeated Fremantle (48) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Melbourne by 54) Melbourne by 38
North Melbourne (95) defeated Gold Coast (58) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 37) North Melbourne by 52
Essendon (62) lost to Collingwood (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 16) Collingwood by 16
West Coast (86) defeated Greater Western Sydney (75) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 11) West Coast by 16

Round 17

Adelaide (112) defeated Geelong (97) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 15) Geelong by 3
St Kilda (116) defeated Carlton (52) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 64) St Kilda by 20
Hawthorn (65) lost to Brisbane Lions (98) at York Park (TAS) [Brisbane Lions by 33) Hawthorn by 30
Melbourne (119) defeated Western Bulldogs (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 50) Melbourne by 34
Gold Coast (51) lost to Essendon (95) at Carrara (QLD) [Essendon by 44) Essendon by 25
Greater Western Sydney (79) defeated Richmond (77) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 2) Richmond by 5
Collingwood (67) lost to West Coast (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [West Coast by 35) Collingwood by 7
North Melbourne (98) lost to Sydney (104) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 6) North Melbourne by 7
Fremantle (59) defeated Port Adelaide (50) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 9) Port Adelaide by 20

Round 18

St Kilda (57) lost to Richmond (111) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 54) Richmond by 42
Collingwood (130) defeated North Melbourne (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 66) Collingwood by 10
Sydney (64) lost to Gold Coast (88) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Gold Coast by 24) Sydney by 56
Essendon (99) defeated Fremantle (70) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 29) Essendon by 30
Brisbane Lions (88) lost to Adelaide (93) at Gabba (QLD) [Adelaide by 5) Brisbane Lions by 5
Geelong (100) defeated Melbourne (98) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 2) Geelong by 17
Carlton (52) lost to Hawthorn (124) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 72) Hawthorn by 28
West Coast (100) defeated Western Bulldogs (46) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 54) West Coast by 37
Port Adelaide (58) lost to Greater Western Sydney (80) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 22) Port Adelaide by 6

Round 19

Essendon (109) defeated Sydney (66) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 43) Essendon by 14
Richmond (105) defeated Collingwood (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 28) Richmond by 22
Geelong (120) defeated Brisbane Lions (78) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 42) Geelong by 31
Greater Western Sydney (86) defeated St Kilda (61) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 25) Greater Western Sydney by 34
Gold Coast (44) lost to Carlton (79) at Carrara (QLD) [Carlton by 35) Gold Coast by 22
Adelaide (77) lost to Melbourne (90) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 13) Melbourne by 2
North Melbourne (81) defeated West Coast (41) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 40) North Melbourne by 8
Western Bulldogs (34) lost to Port Adelaide (78) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 44) Port Adelaide by 16
Fremantle (53) lost to Hawthorn (112) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Hawthorn by 59) Hawthorn by 11

Round 20

Richmond (85) defeated Geelong (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 3) Richmond by 26
Hawthorn (107) defeated Essendon (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 4) Hawthorn by 2
Brisbane Lions (104) lost to North Melbourne (107) at Gabba (QLD) [North Melbourne by 3) North Melbourne by 1
Adelaide (96) defeated Port Adelaide (93) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 3) Port Adelaide by 8
Sydney (73) defeated Collingwood (71) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 2) Sydney by 5
St Kilda (68) lost to Western Bulldogs (103) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 35) St Kilda by 9
Carlton (46) lost to Greater Western Sydney (151) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 105) Greater Western Sydney by 33
Melbourne (143) defeated Gold Coast (47) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 96) Melbourne by 69
West Coast (142) defeated Fremantle (84) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 58) West Coast by 28

Round 21

Essendon (122) defeated St Kilda (79) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 43) Essendon by 24
Hawthorn (71) defeated Geelong (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 11) Geelong by 10
Gold Coast (51) lost to Richmond (125) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 74) Richmond by 44
Port Adelaide (58) lost to West Coast (62) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [West Coast by 4) Port Adelaide by 12
Greater Western Sydney (106) defeated Adelaide (92) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 14) Greater Western Sydney by 28
Collingwood (104) defeated Brisbane Lions (73) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 31) Collingwood by 29
North Melbourne (85) lost to Western Bulldogs (92) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 7) North Melbourne by 22
Melbourne (78) lost to Sydney (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 9) Melbourne by 29
Fremantle (101) defeated Carlton (72) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 29) Fremantle by 20

Round 22

Richmond (81) defeated Essendon (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 8) Richmond by 20
Collingwood (115) defeated Port Adelaide (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 51) Collingwood by 15
Geelong (158) defeated Fremantle (25) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 133) Geelong by 41
Greater Western Sydney (60) lost to Sydney (80) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Sydney by 20) Greater Western Sydney by 11
St Kilda (76) lost to Hawthorn (80) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 4) Hawthorn by 23
Gold Coast (74) lost to Brisbane Lions (78) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 4) Brisbane Lions by 26
Carlton (49) lost to Western Bulldogs (66) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 17) Western Bulldogs by 19
West Coast (91) lost to Melbourne (108) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Melbourne by 17) West Coast by 11
Adelaide (86) defeated North Melbourne (77) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 9) Adelaide by 15

Round 23

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		W	L	D	%
1	Richmond	18	4	0	140.0
2	West Coast	16	6	0	120.3
3	Collingwood	15	7	0	121.5
4	Sydney	15	7	0	110.4
5	Melbourne	14	8	0	129.4
6	Hawthorn	14	8	0	119.3
7	Greater Western Sydney	13	8	1	116.2
8	Geelong	13	9	0	129.1
9	Port Adelaide	13	9	0	109.9
10	North Melbourne	12	10	0	108.3
11	Adelaide	12	10	0	100.2
12	Essendon	11	11	0	103.3
13	Fremantle	8	14	0	75.6
14	Western Bulldogs	8	14	0	75.2
15	Brisbane Lions	5	17	0	89.8
16	St Kilda	4	17	1	75.8
17	Gold Coast	4	18	0	61.1
18	Carlton	2	20	0	61.3

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 23

Port Adelaide 78 - 67 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.622431 - 0.377569RealScores: 78.412775 - 67.387240

Geelong Geelong 113 - 47 Gold Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.97 wins - 0.03 winsRealProbs: 0.974328 - 0.025672RealScores: 112.648750 - 46.836894

Richmond 100 - 54 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.89 wins - 0.11 winsRealProbs: 0.885936 - 0.114064RealScores: 100.153410 - 53.653372

Fremantle 67 - 94 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.24 wins - 0.76 winsRealProbs: 0.244925 - 0.755075RealScores: 66.965283 - 93.673637

Carlton Carlton 67 - 99 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.20 wins - 0.80 winsRealProbs: 0.203680 - 0.796320RealScores: 66.581115 - 98.901294

Sydney Sydney 76 - 72 Hawthorn
S.C.G. (NSW)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.558765 - 0.441235RealScores: 76.064315 - 71.657970

Brisbane Lions 80 - 90 West Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.389557 - 0.610443RealScores: 80.378445 - 90.120596

Melbourne 93 - 78 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.654919 - 0.345081RealScores: 92.642230 - 78.041875

St Kilda 78 - 88 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.380933 - 0.619067RealScores: 77.620780 - 88.284269

		W	L	D	%
1	Richmond	18 (17.89)	4	0	140.0
2	West Coast	16 (15.61)	6	0	120.3
3	Collingwood	15 (14.76)	7	0	121.5
4	Sydney	15 (14.56)	7	0	110.4
5	Melbourne	14 (13.65)	8	0	129.4
6	Hawthorn	14 (14.44)	8	0	119.3
7	Greater Western Sydney	13 (13.35)	8	1	116.2
8	Geelong	13 (12.97)	9	0	129.1
9	Port Adelaide	13 (12.62)	9	0	109.9
10	North Melbourne	12 (11.62)	10	0	108.3
11	Adelaide	12 (11.80)	10	0	100.2
12	Essendon	11 (11.38)	11	0	103.3
13	Fremantle	8 (8.24)	14	0	75.6
14	Western Bulldogs	8 (8.11)	14	0	75.2
15	Brisbane Lions	5 (5.39)	17	0	89.8
16	St Kilda	4 (4.38)	17	1	75.8
17	Gold Coast	4 (4.03)	18	0	61.1
18	Carlton	2 (2.20)	20	0	61.3

FINALS: WEEK 1

Richmond 94 - 57 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

West Coast 82 - 74 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)

Melbourne 85 - 83 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)

Hawthorn 78 - 74 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Sydney Sydney 81 - 86 Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)

Collingwood 80 - 72 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Richmond 84 - 69 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)

West Coast 87 - 82 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)

2018 AFL GRAND FINAL

Richmond 90 - 61 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE4

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

		Flagpole Height
1	Richmond	66.7
2	Melbourne	61.3
3	Geelong	61.0
4	Collingwood	60.3
5	Greater Western Sydney	59.5
6	West Coast	58.7
7	Hawthorn	57.8
8	Sydney	54.8
9	Port Adelaide	13.9
10	Essendon	0.1
11	Adelaide	0.1
12	North Melbourne	0.1
13	St Kilda	0.1
14	Brisbane Lions	0.1
15	Western Bulldogs	0.1
16	Fremantle	0.1
17	Carlton	0.1
18	Gold Coast	0.1

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Richmond	61.8	71.7	66.7
2	Geelong	58.5	64.7	61.6
3	Melbourne	63.8	58.8	61.3
4	Collingwood	58.3	62.3	60.3
5	Greater Western Sydney	57.3	61.7	59.5
6	West Coast	55.8	61.7	58.7
7	Hawthorn	53.5	62.2	57.8
8	Port Adelaide	48.6	66.5	57.6
9	Essendon	57.7	57.3	57.5
10	Adelaide	58.5	54.3	56.4
11	North Melbourne	53.7	56.9	55.3
12	Sydney	51.2	58.5	54.8
13	St Kilda	51.7	51.4	51.6
14	Brisbane Lions	53.7	49.1	51.4
15	Western Bulldogs	46.2	53.0	49.6
16	Fremantle	44.3	49.5	46.9
17	Carlton	39.9	48.3	44.1
18	Gold Coast	40.6	46.8	43.7

EDIT SQUIGGLE

Oooh past

Oooh future

TODO:

(1) Allow for updating of FLAGPOLE

(2) Allow for updating of TOWER

(3) Allow for updating of TIPS

(4) Allow for modification of future games

(5) Allow for modification of past games

HOME TEAM:

vs

Cancel Add Another Game