Squiggle 2019

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

	2017	2016	2015	2014	2013	2012	2011
Squiggle v1	61.4%	69.1%	70.9%	72.0%	72.5%	77.8%	77.6%
Squiggle 2.0*	64.7%	74.9%	73.8%	72.0%	73.0%	73.4%	77.0%
Squiggle 4*	65.7%	73.4%	73.8%	73.4%	74.4%	73.9%	77.6%

* Squiggle 2.0 and Squiggle 4 numbers before 2018 are "retro-dictions"—they were made after the result. This shows how well the model fits historical data, rather than how reliable its predictions have been in practice.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Sun Aug 25 19:40:43 2019 (R23)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2019 ROUND 23 TIPS

Richmond 91 - 75 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +9.4 pts
Ins/Outs: +6.0 pts

West Coast 77 - 70 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: +12.9 pts
Ins/Outs: +3.0 pts

North Melbourne 88 - 69 Melbourne
Bellerive Oval (TAS)
HGA: +7.8 pts
Ins/Outs: +4.7 pts

Gold Coast 63 - 92 Greater Western Sydney
Carrara (QLD)
HGA: +12.8 pts
Ins/Outs: +3.4 pts

Port Adelaide 81 - 58 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA: +11.8 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.4 pts

Geelong Geelong 92 - 54 Carlton Carlton
Kardinia Park (Gee)
HGA: Geelong +11.2 pts
Ins/Outs: Geelong +1.5 pts

Collingwood 83 - 60 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +1.7 pts
Ins/Outs: +5.9 pts

Western Bulldogs 92 - 71 Adelaide
Eureka Stadium (VIC)
HGA: +8.9 pts
Ins/Outs: +5.0 pts

Sydney Sydney 87 - 70 St Kilda
S.C.G. (NSW)
HGA: Sydney +12.9 pts
Ins/Outs: Sydney +5.5 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE4
Tips after Round 22: 122

History...

In 2019, algorithm SQUIGGLE4 correctly tipped 130 games at an accuracy of 65.66%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1

Carlton (100) defeated Essendon (91) at Princes Park (VIC) [Carlton by 9)
West Coast (99) defeated Geelong (65) at Leederville Oval (WA) [West Coast by 34)
North Melbourne (77) lost to St Kilda (102) at Avalon Airport Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 25)
Adelaide (106) defeated Port Adelaide (89) at Memorial Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 17)
Greater Western Sydney (81) defeated Sydney (59) at Blacktown (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 22)
Brisbane Lions (102) defeated Hawthorn (60) at Moreton Bay Central Sports Complex (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 42)
Richmond (113) defeated Melbourne (101) at Deakin Reserve (VIC) [Richmond by 12)
Gold Coast (77) defeated Western Bulldogs (72) at Great Barrier Reef Arena (QLD) [Gold Coast by 5)
Fremantle (84) lost to Collingwood (111) at Arena Joondalup (WA) [Collingwood by 27)

Round 0.2

Geelong (101) defeated Essendon (73) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 28)
Greater Western Sydney (57) lost to Adelaide (75) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Adelaide by 18)
Port Adelaide (123) defeated North Melbourne (102) at Alberton Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 21)
Melbourne (97) lost to Brisbane Lions (104) at Casey Fields (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 7)
Hawthorn (87) lost to Richmond (95) at York Park (TAS) [Richmond by 8)
Sydney (123) defeated Gold Coast (81) at Oakes Oval (NSW) [Sydney by 42)
Western Bulldogs (79) lost to St Kilda (93) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [St Kilda by 14)
Fremantle (58) lost to West Coast (109) at Rushton Park (WA) [West Coast by 51)
Collingwood (77) defeated Carlton (73) at Morwell Recreation Reserve (VIC) [Collingwood by 4)

Round 1

Carlton (64) lost to Richmond (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 33) Richmond by 42
Collingwood (65) lost to Geelong (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 7) Collingwood by 10
Melbourne (61) lost to Port Adelaide (87) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 26) Melbourne by 25
Adelaide (55) lost to Hawthorn (87) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Hawthorn by 32) Adelaide by 23
Western Bulldogs (82) defeated Sydney (65) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 17) Western Bulldogs by 10
Brisbane Lions (102) defeated West Coast (58) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 44) Brisbane Lions by 2
St Kilda (85) defeated Gold Coast (84) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 1) St Kilda by 44
Greater Western Sydney (112) defeated Essendon (40) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 72) Greater Western Sydney by 5
Fremantle (141) defeated North Melbourne (59) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 82) Fremantle by 1

Round 2

Richmond (66) lost to Collingwood (110) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 44) Richmond by 5
Sydney (62) lost to Adelaide (88) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Adelaide by 26) Adelaide by 1
Essendon (65) lost to St Kilda (76) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 11) Essendon by 10
Port Adelaide (88) defeated Carlton (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 16) Port Adelaide by 45
Geelong (126) defeated Melbourne (46) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 80) Geelong by 16
West Coast (104) defeated Greater Western Sydney (52) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 52) Greater Western Sydney by 2
North Melbourne (87) lost to Brisbane Lions (107) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 20) Brisbane Lions by 12
Hawthorn (87) lost to Western Bulldogs (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 19) Hawthorn by 28
Gold Coast (61) defeated Fremantle (58) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 3) Fremantle by 16

Round 3

Adelaide (75) lost to Geelong (99) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 24) Geelong by 13
Melbourne (112) lost to Essendon (130) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 18) Melbourne by 11
Carlton (74) lost to Sydney (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 19) Carlton by 7
Greater Western Sydney (125) defeated Richmond (76) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 49) Greater Western Sydney by 34
Brisbane Lions (107) defeated Port Adelaide (90) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 17) Brisbane Lions by 0
Collingwood (76) lost to West Coast (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [West Coast by 22) Collingwood by 9
Western Bulldogs (68) lost to Gold Coast (73) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 5) Western Bulldogs by 28
Hawthorn (87) defeated North Melbourne (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 16) Hawthorn by 20
Fremantle (71) defeated St Kilda (66) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 5) Fremantle by 20

Round 4

Sydney (78) lost to Melbourne (100) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Melbourne by 22) Sydney by 2
Collingwood (78) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 14) Collingwood by 14
Geelong (75) lost to Greater Western Sydney (79) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Greater Western Sydney by 4) Geelong by 6
Essendon (112) defeated Brisbane Lions (65) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 47) Essendon by 2
Port Adelaide (92) lost to Richmond (99) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Richmond by 7) Port Adelaide by 18
North Melbourne (71) defeated Adelaide (59) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 12) Adelaide by 1
West Coast (69) defeated Fremantle (56) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 13) West Coast by 31
Gold Coast (59) defeated Carlton (57) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 2) Gold Coast by 9
St Kilda (74) defeated Hawthorn (69) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 5) Hawthorn by 17

Round 5

Brisbane Lions (61) lost to Collingwood (123) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 62) Collingwood by 2
North Melbourne (58) lost to Essendon (116) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 58) Essendon by 9
West Coast (53) lost to Port Adelaide (95) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Port Adelaide by 42) West Coast by 19
Greater Western Sydney (82) lost to Fremantle (106) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Fremantle by 24) Greater Western Sydney by 26
Melbourne (55) lost to St Kilda (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 40) St Kilda by 3
Richmond (89) defeated Sydney (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 22) Richmond by 41
Western Bulldogs (57) lost to Carlton (101) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 44) Western Bulldogs by 9
Adelaide (119) defeated Gold Coast (46) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 73) Adelaide by 30
Hawthorn (90) lost to Geelong (113) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 23) Geelong by 13

Round 6

Richmond (85) defeated Melbourne (42) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 43) Richmond by 22
Essendon (69) lost to Collingwood (73) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 4) Collingwood by 14
Port Adelaide (88) defeated North Melbourne (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 16) Port Adelaide by 41
Gold Coast (62) lost to Brisbane Lions (111) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 49) Brisbane Lions by 13
St Kilda (68) lost to Adelaide (97) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 29) St Kilda by 14
Sydney (79) lost to Greater Western Sydney (120) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 41) Greater Western Sydney by 39
Fremantle (88) defeated Western Bulldogs (69) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 19) Fremantle by 20
Hawthorn (93) defeated Carlton (88) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 5) Hawthorn by 28
Geelong (104) defeated West Coast (46) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 58) Geelong by 30

Round 7

Collingwood (108) defeated Port Adelaide (69) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 39) Collingwood by 9
Melbourne (79) defeated Hawthorn (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 5) Hawthorn by 14
Greater Western Sydney (114) defeated St Kilda (70) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 44) Greater Western Sydney by 31
Brisbane Lions (103) defeated Sydney (81) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 22) Brisbane Lions by 29
Western Bulldogs (99) defeated Richmond (52) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 47) Richmond by 18
West Coast (80) defeated Gold Coast (57) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 23) West Coast by 36
Carlton (62) lost to North Melbourne (120) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 58) North Melbourne by 10
Geelong (86) defeated Essendon (54) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 32) Geelong by 14
Adelaide (51) defeated Fremantle (34) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 17) Adelaide by 21

Round 8

Sydney (77) defeated Essendon (72) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 5) Essendon by 12
Carlton (87) lost to Collingwood (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 19) Collingwood by 31
Western Bulldogs (92) defeated Brisbane Lions (76) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 16) Western Bulldogs by 8
Gold Coast (60) lost to Melbourne (61) at Carrara (QLD) [Melbourne by 1) Melbourne by 4
St Kilda (70) lost to West Coast (88) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 18) St Kilda by 12
Port Adelaide (68) lost to Adelaide (88) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 20) Adelaide by 0
North Melbourne (80) lost to Geelong (104) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 24) Geelong by 31
Hawthorn (71) defeated Greater Western Sydney (38) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 33) Greater Western Sydney by 22
Fremantle (86) lost to Richmond (111) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Richmond by 25) Fremantle by 6

Round 9

West Coast (85) defeated Melbourne (69) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 16) West Coast by 27
Collingwood (112) defeated St Kilda (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 41) Collingwood by 29
Brisbane Lions (93) defeated Adelaide (92) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 1) Brisbane Lions by 2
Geelong (133) defeated Western Bulldogs (89) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 44) Geelong by 29
Essendon (60) defeated Fremantle (53) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 7) Essendon by 9
North Melbourne (72) lost to Sydney (77) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Sydney by 5) North Melbourne by 26
Port Adelaide (89) defeated Gold Coast (51) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 38) Port Adelaide by 41
Richmond (95) defeated Hawthorn (59) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 36) Richmond by 6
Greater Western Sydney (138) defeated Carlton (45) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 93) Greater Western Sydney by 38

Round 10

Sydney (73) lost to Collingwood (80) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Collingwood by 7) Collingwood by 10
Hawthorn (80) defeated Port Adelaide (49) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 31) Port Adelaide by 1
Western Bulldogs (90) lost to North Melbourne (115) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 25) Western Bulldogs by 17
Adelaide (73) lost to West Coast (85) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [West Coast by 12) Adelaide by 19
Richmond (73) defeated Essendon (50) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 23) Richmond by 16
Gold Coast (64) lost to Geelong (91) at Carrara (QLD) [Geelong by 27) Geelong by 25
Melbourne (68) lost to Greater Western Sydney (94) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 26) Greater Western Sydney by 14
St Kilda (68) defeated Carlton (55) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 13) St Kilda by 11
Fremantle (73) defeated Brisbane Lions (72) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 1) Fremantle by 11

Round 11

North Melbourne (99) defeated Richmond (62) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 37) Richmond by 25
Collingwood (75) lost to Fremantle (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 4) Collingwood by 35
Greater Western Sydney (126) defeated Gold Coast (43) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 83) Greater Western Sydney by 52
Geelong (85) defeated Sydney (63) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 22) Geelong by 44
Brisbane Lions (85) defeated Hawthorn (66) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 19) Brisbane Lions by 1
Melbourne (88) lost to Adelaide (90) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Adelaide by 2) Adelaide by 9
St Kilda (69) lost to Port Adelaide (139) at Jiangwan Stadium (CHI) [Port Adelaide by 70) Port Adelaide by 18
Essendon (74) defeated Carlton (33) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 41) Essendon by 21
West Coast (133) defeated Western Bulldogs (72) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 61) West Coast by 22

Round 12

Richmond (37) lost to Geelong (104) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 67) Geelong by 7
Carlton (78) defeated Brisbane Lions (63) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 15) Brisbane Lions by 11
Gold Coast (72) lost to North Melbourne (99) at Carrara (QLD) [North Melbourne by 27) North Melbourne by 5
Adelaide (82) defeated Greater Western Sydney (61) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 21) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Sydney (116) defeated West Coast (71) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 45) Sydney by 4
Collingwood (98) defeated Melbourne (57) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 41) Collingwood by 10

Round 13

Adelaide (101) defeated Richmond (68) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 33) Adelaide by 18
Essendon (96) defeated Hawthorn (77) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 19) Essendon by 4
Gold Coast (76) lost to St Kilda (80) at Riverway Stadium (QLD) [St Kilda by 4) St Kilda by 11
Fremantle (100) defeated Port Adelaide (79) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 21) Port Adelaide by 1
Carlton (100) lost to Western Bulldogs (103) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 3) Western Bulldogs by 17
North Melbourne (68) lost to Greater Western Sydney (91) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Greater Western Sydney by 23) Greater Western Sydney by 14

Round 14

West Coast (106) defeated Essendon (71) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 35) West Coast by 14
Sydney (82) defeated Hawthorn (63) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 19) Sydney by 1
Melbourne (85) defeated Fremantle (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 14) Melbourne by 1
St Kilda (59) lost to Brisbane Lions (115) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 56) St Kilda by 4
Port Adelaide (67) defeated Geelong (56) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 11) Geelong by 1
Western Bulldogs (73) lost to Collingwood (82) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 9) Collingwood by 19

Round 15

Essendon (77) defeated Greater Western Sydney (71) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 6) Greater Western Sydney by 9
Geelong (96) defeated Adelaide (69) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 27) Geelong by 29
Hawthorn (71) lost to West Coast (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [West Coast by 6) Hawthorn by 3
Sydney (93) defeated Gold Coast (51) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 42) Sydney by 24
Collingwood (37) lost to North Melbourne (81) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 44) Collingwood by 10
Port Adelaide (41) lost to Western Bulldogs (66) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Western Bulldogs by 25) Port Adelaide by 19
St Kilda (70) lost to Richmond (103) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 33) Richmond by 21
Brisbane Lions (107) defeated Melbourne (74) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 33) Brisbane Lions by 12
Fremantle (75) lost to Carlton (79) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Carlton by 4) Fremantle by 32

Round 16

Hawthorn (67) defeated Collingwood (63) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 4) Collingwood by 2
Essendon (76) defeated Sydney (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 10) Essendon by 12
Gold Coast (58) lost to Richmond (150) at Carrara (QLD) [Richmond by 92) Richmond by 17
Adelaide (44) lost to Port Adelaide (101) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 57) Port Adelaide by 5
Western Bulldogs (71) defeated Geelong (55) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 16) Geelong by 10
Fremantle (31) lost to West Coast (122) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 91) West Coast by 3
Carlton (100) lost to Melbourne (105) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 5) Melbourne by 12
North Melbourne (112) defeated St Kilda (73) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 39) North Melbourne by 21
Greater Western Sydney (74) lost to Brisbane Lions (94) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 20) Greater Western Sydney by 23

Round 17

West Coast (77) lost to Collingwood (78) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Collingwood by 1) West Coast by 19
Sydney (62) lost to Carlton (69) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Carlton by 7) Sydney by 19
Hawthorn (84) defeated Fremantle (53) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 31) Hawthorn by 10
Essendon (86) defeated North Melbourne (81) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 5) North Melbourne by 8
Gold Coast (56) lost to Adelaide (151) at Carrara (QLD) [Adelaide by 95) Adelaide by 21
Geelong (84) defeated St Kilda (57) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 27) Geelong by 34
Richmond (94) defeated Greater Western Sydney (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 10
Western Bulldogs (74) defeated Melbourne (66) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 8) Western Bulldogs by 3
Port Adelaide (49) lost to Brisbane Lions (97) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 48) Port Adelaide by 19

Round 18

Adelaide (75) lost to Essendon (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 21) Adelaide by 24
Richmond (101) defeated Port Adelaide (63) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 38) Richmond by 20
Carlton (99) defeated Gold Coast (75) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 24) Carlton by 34
Greater Western Sydney (122) defeated Collingwood (75) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 47) Greater Western Sydney by 4
Brisbane Lions (87) defeated North Melbourne (75) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 12) Brisbane Lions by 18
Fremantle (52) defeated Sydney (51) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 1) Fremantle by 14
Geelong (61) lost to Hawthorn (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 24) Geelong by 0
Melbourne (78) lost to West Coast (91) at Traeger Park (NT) [West Coast by 13) Melbourne by 5
St Kilda (116) defeated Western Bulldogs (89) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 27) Western Bulldogs by 14

Round 19

Collingwood (66) lost to Richmond (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 32) Richmond by 6
Hawthorn (60) lost to Brisbane Lions (87) at York Park (TAS) [Brisbane Lions by 27) Hawthorn by 1
Carlton (87) defeated Adelaide (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 27) Adelaide by 4
West Coast (121) defeated North Melbourne (72) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 49) West Coast by 14
St Kilda (104) defeated Melbourne (85) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 19) St Kilda by 1
Port Adelaide (55) lost to Greater Western Sydney (56) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 1) Port Adelaide by 2
Western Bulldogs (113) defeated Fremantle (66) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 47) Western Bulldogs by 13
Sydney (80) lost to Geelong (107) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Geelong by 27) Geelong by 5
Gold Coast (96) lost to Essendon (106) at Carrara (QLD) [Essendon by 10) Essendon by 15

Round 20

North Melbourne (86) defeated Hawthorn (64) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 22) Hawthorn by 3
Essendon (67) lost to Port Adelaide (126) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 59) Essendon by 11
Greater Western Sydney (83) defeated Sydney (81) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 2) Greater Western Sydney by 16
Fremantle (95) defeated Geelong (61) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 34) Geelong by 18
Melbourne (60) lost to Richmond (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 33) Richmond by 22
Adelaide (92) defeated St Kilda (70) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 22) Adelaide by 25
Collingwood (120) defeated Gold Coast (51) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 69) Collingwood by 46
Carlton (75) lost to West Coast (99) at Docklands (VIC) [West Coast by 24) West Coast by 17
Brisbane Lions (98) defeated Western Bulldogs (80) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 18) Brisbane Lions by 22

Round 21

Greater Western Sydney (29) lost to Hawthorn (85) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Hawthorn by 56) Greater Western Sydney by 22
Melbourne (53) lost to Collingwood (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 17) Collingwood by 10
Port Adelaide (103) defeated Sydney (56) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 47) Port Adelaide by 32
Brisbane Lions (144) defeated Gold Coast (53) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 91) Brisbane Lions by 58
Essendon (33) lost to Western Bulldogs (137) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 104) Western Bulldogs by 4
Geelong (69) defeated North Melbourne (14) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 55) Geelong by 15
St Kilda (72) defeated Fremantle (69) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 3) St Kilda by 14
Richmond (73) defeated Carlton (45) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 28) Richmond by 17
West Coast (90) defeated Adelaide (80) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 10) West Coast by 17

Round 22

Melbourne (42) lost to Sydney (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 53) Melbourne by 9
Carlton (78) defeated St Kilda (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 10) St Kilda by 9
Brisbane Lions (75) defeated Geelong (74) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 1) Brisbane Lions by 11
Adelaide (48) lost to Collingwood (114) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 66) Adelaide by 9
North Melbourne (144) defeated Port Adelaide (58) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 86) Port Adelaide by 3
Fremantle (55) lost to Essendon (87) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Essendon by 32) Fremantle by 13
Richmond (88) defeated West Coast (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 6) Richmond by 21
Greater Western Sydney (65) lost to Western Bulldogs (126) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 61) Greater Western Sydney by 13
Hawthorn (118) defeated Gold Coast (48) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 70) Hawthorn by 62

Round 23

Richmond (82) defeated Brisbane Lions (55) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 27) Richmond by 16
West Coast (67) lost to Hawthorn (105) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Hawthorn by 38) West Coast by 6
North Melbourne (88) defeated Melbourne (83) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 5) North Melbourne by 19
Gold Coast (55) lost to Greater Western Sydney (127) at Carrara (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 72) Greater Western Sydney by 29
Port Adelaide (110) defeated Fremantle (67) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 43) Port Adelaide by 23
Geelong (129) defeated Carlton (61) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 68) Geelong by 38
Collingwood (76) defeated Essendon (65) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 11) Collingwood by 23
Western Bulldogs (121) defeated Adelaide (87) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 34) Western Bulldogs by 20
Sydney (109) defeated St Kilda (64) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 45) Sydney by 17

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		Wins	%
1	Geelong	16.0	135.7%	1
2	Brisbane Lions	16.0	118.3%	2
3	Richmond	16.0	113.7%	3
4	Collingwood	15.0	117.7%	4
5	West Coast	15.0	112.5%	5
6	Greater Western Sydney	13.0	115.4%	6
7	Western Bulldogs	12.0	107.2%	7
8	Essendon	12.0	95.4%	8
9	Hawthorn	11.0	108.7%	9
10	Port Adelaide	11.0	105.4%	10
11	Adelaide	10.0	100.9%	11
12	North Melbourne	10.0	99.5%	12
13	Fremantle	9.0	91.9%	13
14	St Kilda	9.0	83.9%	14
15	Sydney	8.0	97.7%	15
16	Carlton	7.0	84.5%	16
17	Melbourne	5.0	78.6%	17
18	Gold Coast	3.0	60.5%	18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 23

		W	L	%
1	Geelong	16 (16.00)	6	135.7
2	Brisbane Lions	16 (16.00)	6	118.3
3	Richmond	16 (16.00)	6	113.7
4	Collingwood	15 (15.00)	7	117.7
5	West Coast	15 (15.00)	7	112.5
6	Greater Western Sydney	13 (13.00)	9	115.4
7	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.00)	10	107.2
8	Essendon	12 (12.00)	10	95.4
9	Hawthorn	11 (11.00)	11	108.7
10	Port Adelaide	11 (11.00)	11	105.4
11	Adelaide	10 (10.00)	12	100.9
12	North Melbourne	10 (10.00)	12	99.5
13	Fremantle	9 (9.00)	13	91.9
14	St Kilda	9 (9.00)	13	83.9
15	Sydney	8 (8.00)	14	97.7
16	Carlton	7 (7.00)	15	84.5
17	Melbourne	5 (5.00)	17	78.6
18	Gold Coast	3 (3.00)	19	60.5

FINALS: WEEK 1

Geelong Geelong 73 - 70 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)
Win likelihood: 55.0% - 45.0%RealProbs: 54.952049 - 45.047951RealScores: 73.092784 - 69.621185

Brisbane Lions 85 - 75 Richmond
Gabba (QLD)
Win likelihood: 61.2% - 38.8%RealProbs: 61.190745 - 38.809255RealScores: 84.536776 - 74.659704

West Coast 91 - 70 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)
Win likelihood: 70.7% - 29.3%RealProbs: 70.691872 - 29.308128RealScores: 91.098285 - 70.480933

Greater Western Sydney 79 - 80 Western Bulldogs
Stadium Australia (NSW)
Win likelihood: 48.2% - 51.8%RealProbs: 48.238955 - 51.761045RealScores: 78.988230 - 79.342345

FINALS: WEEK 2

Collingwood 87 - 69 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)
Win likelihood: 67.9% - 32.1%RealProbs: 67.880712 - 32.119288RealScores: 86.573536 - 69.296905

Richmond 80 - 77 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)
Win likelihood: 54.8% - 45.2%RealProbs: 54.768423 - 45.231577RealScores: 80.378408 - 77.087733

FINALS: WEEK 3

Geelong Geelong 71 - 72 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)
Win likelihood: 48.4% - 51.6%RealProbs: 48.393490 - 51.606510RealScores: 71.510451 - 71.737470

Brisbane Lions 86 - 72 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)
Win likelihood: 64.7% - 35.3%RealProbs: 64.726499 - 35.273501RealScores: 86.059759 - 72.353085

2019 AFL GRAND FINAL

Richmond 86 - 74 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)
Win likelihood: 63.2% - 36.8%RealProbs: 63.177794 - 36.822206RealScores: 85.610672 - 73.585808

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE4

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

		Flagpole Height
1	Geelong	62.5
2	Richmond	60.8
3	Western Bulldogs	60.3
4	Brisbane Lions	59.6
5	Collingwood	59.2
6	Greater Western Sydney	56.1
7	West Coast	56.0
8	Essendon	52.8
9	Hawthorn	0.1
10	Port Adelaide	0.1
11	North Melbourne	0.1
12	Adelaide	0.1
13	St Kilda	0.1
14	Sydney	0.1
15	Melbourne	0.1
16	Fremantle	0.1
17	Carlton	0.1
18	Gold Coast	0.1

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Geelong	56.6	68.5	62.5
2	Hawthorn	53.2	69.9	61.6
3	Richmond	56.2	65.4	60.8
4	Western Bulldogs	60.3	60.4	60.3
5	Brisbane Lions	60.2	59.0	59.6
6	Collingwood	54.4	63.9	59.2
7	Port Adelaide	54.8	60.6	57.7
8	North Melbourne	54.8	58.6	56.7
9	Greater Western Sydney	52.0	60.2	56.1
10	West Coast	55.6	56.4	56.0
11	Adelaide	52.9	55.4	54.2
12	St Kilda	51.6	54.7	53.2
13	Sydney	49.3	56.3	52.8
14	Essendon	50.4	55.2	52.8
15	Melbourne	49.3	54.8	52.1
16	Fremantle	47.1	57.1	52.1
17	Carlton	48.6	54.8	51.7
18	Gold Coast	39.7	46.0	42.9