Squiggle 2026

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Sun May 17 06:02:43 2026 (R10)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2026 ROUND 10 TIPS

Adelaide 94 - 77 North Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)
HGA: +11.1 pts
Ins/Outs: +1.3 pts

Brisbane Lions 94 - 92 Geelong Geelong
Gabba (QLD)
HGA: +6.7 pts
Ins/Outs: Geelong +3.8 pts

Carlton Carlton 80 - 101 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: Carlton +0.4 pts
Ins/Outs: +4.2 pts

Essendon 76 - 86 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +9.6 pts
Ins/Outs: +11.4 pts

Gold Coast 92 - 73 Port Adelaide
Marrara Oval (NT)
HGA: +1.7 pts
Ins/Outs: +7.7 pts

Melbourne 84 - 105 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +1.5 pts
Ins/Outs: +8.9 pts

St Kilda 100 - 61 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)
HGA: +1.9 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.8 pts

Sydney Sydney 87 - 55 Collingwood
S.C.G. (NSW)
HGA: Sydney +7.4 pts
Ins/Outs: Sydney +11.1 pts

West Coast 78 - 93 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)
HGA: +14.4 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.9 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE7
Tips after Round 9: 57

History...

In 2026, algorithm SQUIGGLE7 correctly tipped 61 games at an accuracy of 69.32%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0

Brisbane Lions (106) lost to Western Bulldogs (111) at Gabba (QLD) [Western Bulldogs by 5) Brisbane Lions by 7
Gold Coast (125) defeated Geelong (69) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 56) Geelong by 4
Greater Western Sydney (122) defeated Hawthorn (95) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 27) Hawthorn by 9
St Kilda (66) lost to Collingwood (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 12) Collingwood by 8
Sydney (132) defeated Carlton (69) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 63) Carlton by 0

Round 1

Carlton (75) defeated Richmond (71) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 4) Carlton by 21
Collingwood (79) lost to Adelaide (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 14) Collingwood by 6
Essendon (83) lost to Hawthorn (145) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 62) Hawthorn by 17
Geelong (110) defeated Fremantle (100) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 10) Geelong by 17
Gold Coast (131) defeated West Coast (72) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 59) Gold Coast by 39
Melbourne (120) defeated St Kilda (107) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 13) St Kilda by 1
North Melbourne (113) defeated Port Adelaide (67) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 46) North Melbourne by 0
Sydney (104) defeated Brisbane Lions (60) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 44) Sydney by 1
Western Bulldogs (134) defeated Greater Western Sydney (53) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 81) Western Bulldogs by 27

Round 2

Adelaide (88) lost to Western Bulldogs (94) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Western Bulldogs by 6) Western Bulldogs by 0
Fremantle (118) defeated Melbourne (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 48) Fremantle by 21
Greater Western Sydney (74) lost to St Kilda (78) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [St Kilda by 4) Greater Western Sydney by 8
Hawthorn (99) defeated Sydney (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 17) Hawthorn by 14
Port Adelaide (133) defeated Essendon (70) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 63) Port Adelaide by 15
Richmond (60) lost to Gold Coast (128) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Gold Coast by 68) Gold Coast by 23
West Coast (111) defeated North Melbourne (94) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 17) North Melbourne by 0

Round 3

Carlton (77) lost to Melbourne (100) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 23) Carlton by 6
Collingwood (87) defeated Greater Western Sydney (54) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 33) Collingwood by 16
Essendon (69) lost to North Melbourne (81) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 12) North Melbourne by 11
Fremantle (103) defeated Richmond (43) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 60) Fremantle by 47
Geelong (68) defeated Adelaide (60) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 8) Geelong by 9
Port Adelaide (90) lost to West Coast (92) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [West Coast by 2) Port Adelaide by 14
St Kilda (80) lost to Brisbane Lions (113) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 33) Brisbane Lions by 17

Round 4

Adelaide (76) lost to Fremantle (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Fremantle by 2) Adelaide by 13
Brisbane Lions (119) defeated Collingwood (65) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 54) Brisbane Lions by 21
Hawthorn (92) defeated Geelong (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 1) Hawthorn by 7
Melbourne (109) defeated Gold Coast (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 20) Gold Coast by 22
North Melbourne (96) defeated Carlton (86) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 10) Carlton by 5
Richmond (48) lost to Port Adelaide (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 42) Port Adelaide by 11
West Coast (35) lost to Sydney (163) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 128) Sydney by 22
Western Bulldogs (99) defeated Essendon (65) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 34) Western Bulldogs by 43

Round 5

Adelaide (114) defeated Carlton (86) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 28) Adelaide by 33
Collingwood (39) lost to Fremantle (45) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Fremantle by 6) Fremantle by 6
Essendon (113) defeated Melbourne (68) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 45) Melbourne by 18
Geelong (122) defeated West Coast (76) at Norwood Oval (SA) [Geelong by 46) Geelong by 31
Greater Western Sydney (131) defeated Richmond (75) at Barossa Park (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 56) Greater Western Sydney by 31
Hawthorn (104) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Hawthorn by 40) Western Bulldogs by 2
North Melbourne (66) lost to Brisbane Lions (92) at Barossa Park (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 26) Brisbane Lions by 37
Port Adelaide (67) lost to St Kilda (81) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 14) Port Adelaide by 3
Sydney (100) defeated Gold Coast (68) at Norwood Oval (SA) [Sydney by 32) Sydney by 5

Round 6

Adelaide (103) defeated St Kilda (102) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 1) Adelaide by 7
Carlton (83) lost to Collingwood (88) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 5) Collingwood by 5
Geelong (131) defeated Western Bulldogs (56) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 75) Western Bulldogs by 9
Gold Coast (119) defeated Essendon (110) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 9) Gold Coast by 30
Hawthorn (89) defeated Port Adelaide (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 3) Hawthorn by 34
Melbourne (104) defeated Brisbane Lions (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 2) Brisbane Lions by 26
North Melbourne (130) defeated Richmond (55) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 75) North Melbourne by 25
Sydney (107) defeated Greater Western Sydney (66) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 41) Sydney by 31
West Coast (41) lost to Fremantle (97) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 56) Fremantle by 34

Round 7

Brisbane Lions (127) defeated Adelaide (75) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 52) Brisbane Lions by 16
Essendon (60) lost to Collingwood (137) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 77) Collingwood by 15
Fremantle (103) defeated Carlton (89) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 14) Fremantle by 36
Greater Western Sydney (105) defeated North Melbourne (98) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 7) Greater Western Sydney by 12
Hawthorn (112) defeated Gold Coast (63) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 49) Hawthorn by 10
Port Adelaide (95) defeated Geelong (65) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 30) Geelong by 19
Richmond (72) lost to Melbourne (126) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 54) Melbourne by 29
St Kilda (143) defeated West Coast (42) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 101) St Kilda by 32
Western Bulldogs (60) lost to Sydney (126) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 66) Sydney by 5

Round 8

Adelaide (76) defeated Port Adelaide (75) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 1) Adelaide by 5
Carlton (69) lost to St Kilda (108) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 39) Carlton by 1
Collingwood (93) drew with Hawthorn (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Hawthorn by 19
Essendon (79) lost to Brisbane Lions (143) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 64) Brisbane Lions by 31
Geelong (135) defeated North Melbourne (86) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 49) Geelong by 31
Gold Coast (83) defeated Greater Western Sydney (63) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 20) Gold Coast by 8
Sydney (131) defeated Melbourne (114) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 17) Sydney by 47
West Coast (88) lost to Richmond (99) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Richmond by 11) West Coast by 19
Western Bulldogs (102) lost to Fremantle (114) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 12) Western Bulldogs by 14

Round 9

Brisbane Lions (100) defeated Carlton (89) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 11) Brisbane Lions by 30
Fremantle (88) defeated Hawthorn (73) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 15) Fremantle by 5
Geelong (122) defeated Collingwood (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 54) Collingwood by 2
Gold Coast (89) defeated St Kilda (60) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 29) Gold Coast by 9
Greater Western Sydney (103) defeated Essendon (89) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 14) Greater Western Sydney by 19
Melbourne (99) defeated West Coast (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 32) Melbourne by 34
North Melbourne (97) lost to Sydney (105) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 8) Sydney by 31
Port Adelaide (72) lost to Western Bulldogs (74) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Western Bulldogs by 2) Port Adelaide by 2
Richmond (61) lost to Adelaide (98) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 37) Adelaide by 27

Round 10

Adelaide (133) defeated North Melbourne (65) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 68) Adelaide by 17
Brisbane Lions (76) lost to Geelong (117) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 41) Brisbane Lions by 1
Carlton (74) defeated Western Bulldogs (62) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 12) Western Bulldogs by 21
Essendon (9) lost to Fremantle (35) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 26) Fremantle by 10
Gold Coast (98) defeated Port Adelaide (73) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 25) Gold Coast by 19
Melbourne (120) defeated Hawthorn (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 39) Hawthorn by 21
Sydney (81) defeated Collingwood (75) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 6) Sydney by 32

Round 11

Round 12

Round 13

Round 14

Round 15

Round 16

Round 17

Round 18

Round 19

Round 20

Round 21

Round 22

Round 23

Round 24

Elimination Final

Semi-Final

Preliminary Final

Grand Final

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		Wins	%
1	Sydney	17.5	138.6%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2	Fremantle	16.5	124.0%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
3	Geelong	15.7	126.8%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
4	Hawthorn	15.2	120.7%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
5	Brisbane Lions	13.5	114.8%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
6	Gold Coast	13.6	109.4%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
7	Adelaide	13.0	108.4%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
8	Melbourne	13.1	101.5%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
9	Collingwood	12.1	108.1%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
10	Western Bulldogs	12.1	100.7%	2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
11	St Kilda	11.2	105.5%	3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
12	Greater Western Sydney	10.3	93.1%	4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
13	Port Adelaide	9.4	102.4%	5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
14	North Melbourne	9.3	91.8%	6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
15	Carlton	8.2	90.4%	8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
16	Essendon	6.3	78.8%	11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
17	West Coast	6.1	67.5%	12 13 14 15 16 17 18
18	Richmond	4.0	61.3%	15 16 17 18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 10

Essendon 74 - 87 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.367487 - 0.632513RealScores: 74.379656 - 87.088256

St Kilda 100 - 61 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.857100 - 0.142900RealScores: 100.012978 - 61.001081

West Coast 78 - 93 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.340453 - 0.659547RealScores: 77.890919 - 93.127366

		W	L	D	%
1	Fremantle	10 (9.62)	1	0	133.3
2	Sydney	9 (9.00)	1	0	152.2
3	Geelong	7 (7.00)	3	0	123.5
4	Gold Coast	7 (7.00)	3	0	119.9
5	Melbourne	7 (7.00)	3	0	107.6
6	Hawthorn	6 (6.00)	3	1	110.2
7	Brisbane Lions	6 (6.00)	4	0	116.6
8	Adelaide	6 (6.00)	4	0	109.7
9	St Kilda	5 (4.82)	5	0	113.4
10	Greater Western Sydney	5 (4.65)	5	0	93.5
11	Western Bulldogs	5 (5.00)	5	0	91.7
12	Collingwood	4 (4.00)	5	1	99.1
13	North Melbourne	4 (4.00)	6	0	96.7
14	Port Adelaide	3 (3.00)	7	0	105.2
15	Carlton	2 (2.00)	8	0	81.8
16	West Coast	2 (2.35)	8	0	62.1
17	Essendon	1 (1.38)	10	0	71.4
18	Richmond	1 (1.18)	9	0	60.3

Round 11

Collingwood 100 - 57 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.88 wins - 0.12 winsRealProbs: 0.881903 - 0.118097RealScores: 100.480196 - 57.305756

Fremantle 92 - 69 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.740534 - 0.259466RealScores: 92.246177 - 68.775584

Geelong Geelong 97 - 85 Sydney Sydney
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.622303 - 0.377697RealScores: 96.517240 - 84.751492

Greater Western Sydney 86 - 96 Brisbane Lions
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.401585 - 0.598415RealScores: 86.238807 - 95.805002

Hawthorn 92 - 77 Adelaide
York Park (TAS)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.655539 - 0.344461RealScores: 92.287764 - 77.430059

North Melbourne 84 - 97 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.368806 - 0.631194RealScores: 84.407747 - 96.994286

Port Adelaide 86 - 74 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.624604 - 0.375396RealScores: 86.410475 - 74.432615

Richmond 73 - 91 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.311463 - 0.688537RealScores: 73.022230 - 91.060417

Western Bulldogs 98 - 88 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.602328 - 0.397672RealScores: 98.374621 - 88.447841

		W	L	D	%
1	Fremantle	10 (10.34)	2	0	133.3
2	Sydney	9 (9.38)	2	0	144.8
3	Geelong	8 (7.62)	3	0	122.6
4	Gold Coast	8 (7.62)	3	0	119.5
5	Hawthorn	7 (6.64)	3	1	110.9
6	Brisbane Lions	7 (6.60)	4	0	116.1
7	Melbourne	7 (7.40)	4	0	106.0
8	Adelaide	6 (6.36)	5	0	107.1
9	Western Bulldogs	6 (5.60)	5	0	93.4
10	Collingwood	5 (4.85)	5	1	104.1
11	St Kilda	5 (5.11)	6	0	109.4
12	Greater Western Sydney	5 (5.05)	6	0	93.2
13	Port Adelaide	4 (3.62)	7	0	106.1
14	North Melbourne	4 (4.38)	7	0	95.8
15	West Coast	3 (2.51)	8	0	61.6
16	Carlton	2 (2.38)	9	0	82.2
17	Essendon	2 (2.05)	10	0	74.6
18	Richmond	2 (1.51)	9	0	61.9

Round 12

Brisbane Lions 86 - 82 Fremantle
Gabba (QLD)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.538952 - 0.461048RealScores: 85.565475 - 82.169873

Carlton Carlton 80 - 101 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.288420 - 0.711580RealScores: 80.274383 - 100.642321

Melbourne 95 - 92 Greater Western Sydney
Traeger Park (NT)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.536469 - 0.463531RealScores: 94.774741 - 91.629863

St Kilda 80 - 95 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.348071 - 0.651929RealScores: 80.364071 - 94.881992

Sydney Sydney 120 - 56 Richmond
S.C.G. (NSW)0.98 wins - 0.02 winsRealProbs: 0.978794 - 0.021206RealScores: 119.613027 - 56.242111

West Coast 84 - 86 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.469092 - 0.530908RealScores: 83.910659 - 86.496349

Western Bulldogs 78 - 79 Collingwood
Docklands (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.492419 - 0.507581RealScores: 78.698280 - 78.972348

		W	L	D	%
1	Fremantle	11 (10.80)	2	0	129.7
2	Sydney	10 (10.33)	2	0	149.1
3	Geelong	8 (8.31)	4	0	122.8
4	Gold Coast	8 (7.62)	3	0	119.5
5	Melbourne	8 (7.94)	4	0	105.8
6	Hawthorn	7 (7.28)	4	1	111.5
7	Brisbane Lions	7 (7.13)	5	0	115.2
8	Adelaide	6 (6.36)	5	0	107.1
9	Western Bulldogs	6 (6.09)	6	0	93.9
10	Greater Western Sydney	6 (5.51)	6	0	93.5
11	Collingwood	5 (5.35)	6	1	103.8
12	St Kilda	5 (5.47)	7	0	107.1
13	Port Adelaide	4 (3.62)	7	0	106.1
14	North Melbourne	4 (4.38)	7	0	95.8
15	Carlton	3 (2.69)	9	0	82.0
16	Essendon	3 (2.58)	10	0	76.4
17	West Coast	3 (2.98)	9	0	64.0
18	Richmond	2 (1.56)	10	0	60.5

Round 13

Adelaide 84 - 91 Geelong Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.425595 - 0.574405RealScores: 83.747646 - 90.656336

Collingwood 89 - 78 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.613888 - 0.386112RealScores: 89.179354 - 78.188531

Essendon 79 - 94 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.343557 - 0.656443RealScores: 79.302682 - 94.245670

Gold Coast 89 - 90 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.485804 - 0.514196RealScores: 89.437101 - 90.243134

Hawthorn 96 - 81 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.653515 - 0.346485RealScores: 95.989849 - 81.322801

North Melbourne 71 - 99 Fremantle
Hands Oval (WA)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.215697 - 0.784303RealScores: 70.779050 - 99.424862

Sydney Sydney 101 - 74 St Kilda
S.C.G. (NSW)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.767173 - 0.232827RealScores: 100.702459 - 74.161140

West Coast 72 - 89 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.318713 - 0.681287RealScores: 72.013151 - 89.338869

		W	L	D	%
1	Fremantle	12 (11.56)	2	0	130.5
2	Sydney	11 (11.07)	2	0	148.1
3	Geelong	9 (8.88)	4	0	121.7
4	Hawthorn	8 (7.93)	4	1	111.9
5	Gold Coast	8 (8.11)	4	0	117.6
6	Brisbane Lions	8 (7.65)	5	0	114.1
7	Melbourne	8 (8.33)	5	0	104.5
8	Adelaide	7 (6.78)	5	0	105.8
9	Collingwood	6 (5.97)	6	1	104.6
10	St Kilda	6 (5.73)	7	0	104.0
11	Greater Western Sydney	6 (5.51)	6	0	93.5
12	Western Bulldogs	6 (6.45)	7	0	93.1
13	North Melbourne	5 (4.62)	7	0	93.7
14	Port Adelaide	4 (4.28)	8	0	107.5
15	Carlton	3 (3.34)	10	0	84.3
16	Essendon	3 (2.93)	11	0	76.9
17	West Coast	3 (3.31)	10	0	65.0
18	Richmond	2 (1.56)	10	0	60.5

Round 14

Geelong Geelong 102 - 78 Gold Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.738953 - 0.261047RealScores: 101.616529 - 78.321202

Melbourne 103 - 83 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.709777 - 0.290223RealScores: 103.487586 - 83.305888

North Melbourne 99 - 80 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.696442 - 0.303558RealScores: 98.604298 - 79.778837

Port Adelaide 77 - 88 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.383093 - 0.616907RealScores: 76.563241 - 87.831882

Richmond 64 - 114 Brisbane Lions
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.08 wins - 0.92 winsRealProbs: 0.083381 - 0.916619RealScores: 63.992781 - 113.634796

St Kilda 93 - 80 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.633035 - 0.366965RealScores: 93.081506 - 80.324591

Western Bulldogs 90 - 79 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.610649 - 0.389351RealScores: 89.544132 - 78.905273

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	12 (11.68)	2	0	145.6
2	Fremantle	12 (11.56)	2	0	130.5
3	Geelong	10 (9.59)	4	0	122.2
4	Brisbane Lions	9 (8.53)	5	0	117.4
5	Melbourne	9 (9.02)	5	0	105.7
6	Hawthorn	8 (7.93)	4	1	111.9
7	Gold Coast	8 (8.40)	5	0	113.9
8	Adelaide	7 (7.18)	6	0	104.4
9	Western Bulldogs	7 (7.06)	7	0	94.4
10	Collingwood	6 (5.97)	6	1	104.6
11	St Kilda	6 (6.35)	8	0	104.8
12	Greater Western Sydney	6 (5.89)	7	0	92.9
13	Port Adelaide	5 (4.67)	8	0	105.8
14	North Melbourne	5 (5.30)	8	0	95.6
15	West Coast	4 (3.63)	10	0	66.1
16	Carlton	3 (3.34)	10	0	84.3
17	Essendon	3 (3.24)	12	0	77.2
18	Richmond	2 (1.67)	11	0	60.2

Round 15

Adelaide 97 - 81 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.665505 - 0.334495RealScores: 97.225261 - 81.422369

Collingwood 81 - 65 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.673873 - 0.326127RealScores: 81.374660 - 64.768759

Fremantle 88 - 80 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.590963 - 0.409037RealScores: 88.017148 - 79.621901

Gold Coast 87 - 89 Hawthorn
Carrara (QLD)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.473322 - 0.526678RealScores: 86.682784 - 88.504014

Greater Western Sydney 90 - 83 Carlton Carlton
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.580927 - 0.419073RealScores: 90.395472 - 83.057275

Richmond 73 - 99 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.23 wins - 0.77 winsRealProbs: 0.233936 - 0.766064RealScores: 72.921652 - 99.330354

St Kilda 85 - 89 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.447343 - 0.552657RealScores: 84.623461 - 89.046958

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	12 (11.68)	2	0	145.6
2	Fremantle	12 (12.14)	3	0	129.0
3	Geelong	10 (10.01)	5	0	120.0
4	Brisbane Lions	9 (8.53)	5	0	117.4
5	Gold Coast	9 (8.87)	5	0	112.7
6	Melbourne	9 (9.36)	6	0	104.2
7	Hawthorn	8 (8.45)	5	1	111.2
8	Adelaide	8 (7.83)	6	0	105.4
9	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.61)	7	0	95.1
10	Collingwood	7 (6.63)	6	1	105.8
11	St Kilda	7 (6.80)	8	0	104.1
12	North Melbourne	6 (6.04)	8	0	97.9
13	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.46)	8	0	94.0
14	Port Adelaide	5 (5.01)	9	0	103.9
15	Carlton	4 (3.76)	10	0	84.8
16	West Coast	4 (3.63)	10	0	66.1
17	Essendon	3 (3.24)	12	0	77.2
18	Richmond	2 (1.93)	12	0	61.0

Round 16

Brisbane Lions 89 - 93 Sydney Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.447401 - 0.552599RealScores: 88.701712 - 93.013122

Carlton Carlton 103 - 69 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.825012 - 0.174988RealScores: 102.675720 - 68.545298

Collingwood 98 - 55 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.88 wins - 0.12 winsRealProbs: 0.877580 - 0.122420RealScores: 97.759048 - 55.336145

Fremantle 90 - 71 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.691168 - 0.308832RealScores: 89.679385 - 71.380464

Hawthorn 104 - 74 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.791710 - 0.208290RealScores: 103.798109 - 74.207215

North Melbourne 97 - 85 Essendon
Docklands (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.623063 - 0.376937RealScores: 96.543773 - 84.812741

Port Adelaide 76 - 80 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.45 wins - 0.55 winsRealProbs: 0.452383 - 0.547617RealScores: 76.101682 - 79.910095

		W	L	D	%
1	Fremantle	13 (12.82)	3	0	128.8
2	Sydney	12 (12.23)	3	0	142.4
3	Geelong	10 (10.01)	5	0	120.0
4	Hawthorn	9 (9.22)	5	1	112.9
5	Brisbane Lions	9 (8.99)	6	0	115.9
6	Gold Coast	9 (9.20)	6	0	110.4
7	Melbourne	9 (9.36)	6	0	104.2
8	Adelaide	8 (8.37)	7	0	105.4
9	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.61)	7	0	95.1
10	Collingwood	7 (7.48)	7	1	109.3
11	St Kilda	7 (6.80)	8	0	104.1
12	North Melbourne	7 (6.66)	8	0	98.8
13	Greater Western Sydney	7 (6.70)	8	0	92.3
14	Port Adelaide	5 (5.47)	10	0	103.3
15	Carlton	5 (4.56)	10	0	88.0
16	Essendon	4 (3.62)	12	0	77.8
17	West Coast	4 (3.83)	11	0	66.1
18	Richmond	2 (2.08)	13	0	60.8

Round 17

Essendon 77 - 97 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.294977 - 0.705023RealScores: 77.157718 - 96.851622

Geelong Geelong 104 - 83 Brisbane Lions
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.718377 - 0.281623RealScores: 104.207762 - 83.130625

Gold Coast 82 - 74 Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.585607 - 0.414393RealScores: 81.815047 - 74.211627

Greater Western Sydney 76 - 88 Fremantle
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.370403 - 0.629597RealScores: 75.594682 - 87.921496

Hawthorn 106 - 83 Melbourne
York Park (TAS)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.734601 - 0.265399RealScores: 105.763267 - 82.946708

Port Adelaide 94 - 75 North Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.694847 - 0.305153RealScores: 93.729137 - 75.063449

Richmond 66 - 99 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.18 wins - 0.82 winsRealProbs: 0.184534 - 0.815466RealScores: 66.414971 - 99.192889

Sydney Sydney 100 - 77 Western Bulldogs
S.C.G. (NSW)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.736816 - 0.263184RealScores: 99.927646 - 76.868075

West Coast 72 - 96 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.257714 - 0.742286RealScores: 72.029206 - 95.694943

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	13 (12.95)	3	0	141.6
2	Fremantle	13 (13.44)	4	0	128.0
3	Geelong	11 (10.71)	5	0	120.3
4	Hawthorn	10 (9.93)	5	1	113.8
5	Gold Coast	10 (9.78)	6	0	110.4
6	Melbourne	10 (9.65)	6	0	102.4
7	Brisbane Lions	9 (9.29)	7	0	113.2
8	Adelaide	9 (9.09)	7	0	106.9
9	Collingwood	8 (7.90)	7	1	108.0
10	Western Bulldogs	8 (7.89)	8	0	93.8
11	St Kilda	7 (7.49)	9	0	105.4
12	North Melbourne	7 (6.98)	9	0	97.6
13	Greater Western Sydney	7 (7.08)	9	0	91.9
14	Port Adelaide	6 (6.15)	10	0	104.6
15	Carlton	5 (5.34)	11	0	90.8
16	Essendon	4 (3.93)	13	0	77.9
17	West Coast	4 (4.11)	12	0	66.6
18	Richmond	2 (2.30)	14	0	61.1

Round 18

Adelaide 87 - 80 Gold Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.580088 - 0.419912RealScores: 86.855234 - 79.929047

Brisbane Lions 111 - 73 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.85 wins - 0.15 winsRealProbs: 0.852766 - 0.147234RealScores: 111.113866 - 72.793081

Carlton Carlton 78 - 98 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.288076 - 0.711924RealScores: 77.765119 - 98.168690

Collingwood 91 - 73 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.685227 - 0.314773RealScores: 90.800467 - 73.088686

Fremantle 84 - 79 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.561429 - 0.438571RealScores: 83.783710 - 78.772812

Greater Western Sydney 82 - 101 Geelong Geelong
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.308460 - 0.691540RealScores: 82.349125 - 100.685008

Melbourne 109 - 69 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.864008 - 0.135992RealScores: 109.364484 - 69.229036

St Kilda 85 - 76 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.605560 - 0.394440RealScores: 85.166564 - 75.560385

Western Bulldogs 110 - 65 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.89 wins - 0.11 winsRealProbs: 0.891758 - 0.108242RealScores: 110.305131 - 65.373945

		W	L	D	%
1	Fremantle	14 (14.00)	4	0	126.6
2	Sydney	13 (13.39)	4	0	138.6
3	Hawthorn	11 (10.62)	5	1	114.4
4	Geelong	11 (11.38)	6	0	120.5
5	Brisbane Lions	10 (10.11)	7	0	115.1
6	Gold Coast	10 (10.20)	7	0	109.3
7	Adelaide	10 (9.67)	7	0	107.0
8	Melbourne	10 (10.49)	7	0	104.8
9	Collingwood	9 (8.57)	7	1	108.9
10	Western Bulldogs	9 (8.76)	8	0	97.0
11	St Kilda	8 (8.09)	9	0	105.8
12	Port Adelaide	7 (6.55)	10	0	103.6
13	North Melbourne	7 (7.31)	10	0	96.7
14	Greater Western Sydney	7 (7.40)	10	0	91.3
15	Carlton	6 (5.65)	11	0	90.1
16	Essendon	4 (4.11)	14	0	77.2
17	West Coast	4 (4.25)	13	0	66.2
18	Richmond	2 (2.46)	15	0	61.3

Round 19

Collingwood 84 - 72 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.636194 - 0.363806RealScores: 84.359128 - 71.533332

Essendon 83 - 93 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.393628 - 0.606372RealScores: 83.101099 - 92.690737

Geelong Geelong 104 - 76 St Kilda
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.782360 - 0.217640RealScores: 104.269190 - 75.867637

Gold Coast 93 - 82 Western Bulldogs
Carrara (QLD)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.620567 - 0.379433RealScores: 92.717093 - 81.601708

North Melbourne 93 - 101 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.407100 - 0.592900RealScores: 92.512026 - 100.677020

Port Adelaide 73 - 78 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.441783 - 0.558217RealScores: 73.371733 - 77.966763

Richmond 60 - 115 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.06 wins - 0.94 winsRealProbs: 0.056127 - 0.943873RealScores: 59.918335 - 115.217044

Sydney Sydney 97 - 73 Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.745931 - 0.254069RealScores: 96.666648 - 72.592184

West Coast 75 - 108 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.18 wins - 0.82 winsRealProbs: 0.182678 - 0.817322RealScores: 74.917903 - 107.955418

		W	L	D	%
1	Fremantle	15 (14.55)	4	0	125.5
2	Sydney	14 (14.12)	4	0	138.3
3	Hawthorn	12 (11.54)	5	1	117.5
4	Geelong	12 (12.14)	6	0	121.3
5	Brisbane Lions	11 (10.90)	7	0	116.5
6	Gold Coast	11 (10.82)	7	0	109.5
7	Melbourne	11 (11.07)	7	0	105.1
8	Adelaide	10 (9.94)	8	0	104.9
9	Collingwood	9 (9.19)	8	1	109.4
10	Western Bulldogs	9 (9.14)	9	0	96.5
11	St Kilda	8 (8.33)	10	0	103.5
12	North Melbourne	8 (7.73)	10	0	96.4
13	Greater Western Sydney	8 (8.00)	10	0	92.3
14	Port Adelaide	7 (7.00)	11	0	103.1
15	Carlton	6 (6.02)	12	0	89.8
16	Essendon	5 (4.51)	14	0	77.8
17	West Coast	4 (4.46)	14	0	66.4
18	Richmond	3 (2.54)	15	0	60.7

Round 20

Adelaide 79 - 72 Collingwood
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.583072 - 0.416928RealScores: 78.944067 - 71.896269

Brisbane Lions 94 - 75 Port Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.700867 - 0.299133RealScores: 93.913968 - 74.642559

Carlton Carlton 84 - 89 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.434836 - 0.565164RealScores: 83.631305 - 88.843578

Fremantle 106 - 59 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.902008 - 0.097992RealScores: 105.937878 - 59.113936

Greater Western Sydney 77 - 101 Sydney Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.258841 - 0.741159RealScores: 77.092111 - 100.632187

Hawthorn 110 - 71 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.855306 - 0.144694RealScores: 109.610277 - 70.885689

Melbourne 87 - 107 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.289779 - 0.710221RealScores: 86.893141 - 107.120634

North Melbourne 84 - 95 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.377950 - 0.622050RealScores: 84.321882 - 95.495923

Western Bulldogs 109 - 62 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.901488 - 0.098512RealScores: 108.541776 - 61.815639

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	15 (14.83)	4	0	137.9
2	Fremantle	15 (15.42)	5	0	127.8
3	Geelong	13 (12.83)	6	0	121.4
4	Hawthorn	12 (12.37)	6	1	119.2
5	Brisbane Lions	12 (11.58)	7	0	117.0
6	Gold Coast	11 (11.37)	8	0	109.3
7	Adelaide	11 (10.52)	8	0	105.2
8	Melbourne	11 (11.38)	8	0	103.6
9	Collingwood	10 (9.62)	8	1	108.4
10	Western Bulldogs	10 (10.02)	9	0	99.4
11	St Kilda	9 (8.95)	10	0	104.0
12	North Melbourne	8 (8.11)	11	0	95.9
13	Greater Western Sydney	8 (8.28)	11	0	91.4
14	Port Adelaide	7 (7.32)	12	0	101.6
15	Carlton	6 (6.47)	13	0	90.0
16	Essendon	5 (4.69)	15	0	77.1
17	West Coast	5 (4.59)	14	0	65.8
18	Richmond	3 (2.67)	16	0	60.5

Round 21

Carlton Carlton 85 - 95 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.391932 - 0.608068RealScores: 85.156712 - 94.735585

Collingwood 78 - 85 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.410312 - 0.589688RealScores: 77.643042 - 85.289603

Essendon 77 - 92 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.34 wins - 0.66 winsRealProbs: 0.337007 - 0.662993RealScores: 76.872871 - 92.436437

Fremantle 93 - 70 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.731191 - 0.268809RealScores: 92.707593 - 70.262453

Gold Coast 102 - 83 Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.693816 - 0.306184RealScores: 101.849659 - 83.287005

Hawthorn 108 - 77 North Melbourne
York Park (TAS)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.802874 - 0.197126RealScores: 108.211432 - 77.153412

Port Adelaide 89 - 74 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.662710 - 0.337290RealScores: 89.181769 - 73.645156

Richmond 80 - 79 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.526499 - 0.473501RealScores: 80.015561 - 78.724373

St Kilda 80 - 94 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.351140 - 0.648860RealScores: 80.420738 - 94.442860

		W	L	D	%
1	Fremantle	16 (16.13)	5	0	128.0
2	Sydney	15 (15.47)	5	0	136.8
3	Hawthorn	13 (13.14)	6	1	120.2
4	Geelong	13 (13.41)	7	0	120.9
5	Brisbane Lions	12 (12.18)	8	0	116.7
6	Gold Coast	12 (12.05)	8	0	110.0
7	Melbourne	12 (11.70)	8	0	102.4
8	Adelaide	11 (11.17)	9	0	105.9
9	Collingwood	10 (10.04)	9	1	107.4
10	Western Bulldogs	10 (10.31)	10	0	98.2
11	St Kilda	9 (9.31)	11	0	103.0
12	Greater Western Sydney	9 (8.63)	11	0	91.0
13	Port Adelaide	8 (7.97)	12	0	102.5
14	North Melbourne	8 (8.34)	12	0	94.5
15	Carlton	7 (6.87)	13	0	90.0
16	Essendon	5 (5.04)	16	0	77.3
17	West Coast	5 (5.07)	15	0	67.0
18	Richmond	3 (3.18)	17	0	62.0

Round 22

Adelaide 108 - 55 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.94 wins - 0.06 winsRealProbs: 0.935620 - 0.064380RealScores: 108.056464 - 54.527665

Brisbane Lions 92 - 91 Hawthorn
Gabba (QLD)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.517255 - 0.482745RealScores: 91.375361 - 91.048592

Geelong Geelong 119 - 67 Essendon
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.924448 - 0.075552RealScores: 118.534385 - 67.322086

Greater Western Sydney 84 - 90 Gold Coast
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.428769 - 0.571231RealScores: 84.441197 - 90.107090

Melbourne 82 - 91 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.394290 - 0.605710RealScores: 82.063707 - 91.304160

St Kilda 89 - 82 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.578878 - 0.421122RealScores: 88.873538 - 82.426615

Sydney Sydney 96 - 68 Port Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.778339 - 0.221661RealScores: 96.147876 - 68.247247

West Coast 67 - 91 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.250428 - 0.749572RealScores: 66.649509 - 91.136443

Western Bulldogs 101 - 82 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.690965 - 0.309035RealScores: 100.547945 - 82.269176

		W	L	D	%
1	Fremantle	17 (16.72)	5	0	127.1
2	Sydney	16 (16.22)	5	0	137.0
3	Hawthorn	14 (13.64)	6	1	119.1
4	Geelong	14 (14.30)	7	0	123.0
5	Brisbane Lions	13 (12.68)	8	0	115.9
6	Gold Coast	13 (12.60)	8	0	109.8
7	Adelaide	12 (12.08)	9	0	108.8
8	Melbourne	12 (12.11)	9	0	101.9
9	Collingwood	11 (10.77)	9	1	108.7
10	Western Bulldogs	11 (10.98)	10	0	99.3
11	St Kilda	10 (9.87)	11	0	103.2
12	North Melbourne	9 (8.67)	12	0	93.9
13	Greater Western Sydney	9 (9.07)	12	0	91.1
14	Port Adelaide	8 (8.22)	13	0	100.7
15	Carlton	7 (7.31)	14	0	90.1
16	Essendon	5 (5.14)	17	0	76.2
17	West Coast	5 (5.35)	16	0	67.3
18	Richmond	3 (3.27)	18	0	61.5

Round 23

Brisbane Lions 92 - 87 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.564031 - 0.435969RealScores: 92.270894 - 87.409340

Essendon 73 - 107 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.17 wins - 0.83 winsRealProbs: 0.174987 - 0.825013RealScores: 73.270258 - 107.400823

Fremantle 89 - 67 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.723407 - 0.276593RealScores: 88.792500 - 67.183437

Greater Western Sydney 105 - 68 West Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.842290 - 0.157710RealScores: 105.099508 - 68.407349

Hawthorn 84 - 74 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.611297 - 0.388703RealScores: 84.175155 - 74.427695

North Melbourne 81 - 109 Geelong Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.22 wins - 0.78 winsRealProbs: 0.221103 - 0.778897RealScores: 81.370211 - 109.339966

Port Adelaide 92 - 81 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.623887 - 0.376113RealScores: 91.953162 - 80.859135

Richmond 65 - 102 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.16 wins - 0.84 winsRealProbs: 0.156033 - 0.843967RealScores: 64.856855 - 101.805775

Western Bulldogs 93 - 81 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.627262 - 0.372738RealScores: 92.718643 - 81.260079

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	17 (17.02)	5	0	137.4
2	Fremantle	17 (17.42)	6	0	127.3
3	Geelong	15 (15.05)	7	0	123.6
4	Hawthorn	14 (14.23)	7	1	118.8
5	Brisbane Lions	13 (13.23)	9	0	115.4
6	Gold Coast	13 (13.06)	9	0	109.1
7	Melbourne	13 (12.50)	9	0	101.3
8	Adelaide	12 (12.37)	10	0	107.2
9	Western Bulldogs	12 (11.59)	10	0	99.9
10	Collingwood	11 (11.17)	10	1	107.7
11	St Kilda	11 (10.69)	11	0	105.1
12	Greater Western Sydney	10 (9.88)	12	0	93.2
13	Port Adelaide	9 (8.82)	13	0	101.3
14	North Melbourne	9 (8.92)	13	0	92.9
15	Carlton	8 (7.69)	14	0	90.0
16	West Coast	6 (5.54)	16	0	67.2
17	Essendon	5 (5.34)	18	0	75.9
18	Richmond	3 (3.46)	19	0	61.6

Round 24

Adelaide 94 - 74 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.701996 - 0.298004RealScores: 93.879519 - 74.493707

Carlton Carlton 76 - 86 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.385853 - 0.614147RealScores: 75.818378 - 85.786457

Collingwood 84 - 79 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.560310 - 0.439690RealScores: 83.506346 - 79.089697

Essendon 76 - 87 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.377181 - 0.622819RealScores: 76.183395 - 87.077918

Geelong Geelong 123 - 57 Richmond
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.99 wins - 0.01 winsRealProbs: 0.990000 - 0.010000RealScores: 123.410442 - 57.238565

Melbourne 91 - 96 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.429818 - 0.570182RealScores: 90.706129 - 96.116333

St Kilda 86 - 87 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.484623 - 0.515377RealScores: 86.012289 - 86.031087

Sydney Sydney 113 - 72 North Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.87 wins - 0.13 winsRealProbs: 0.866527 - 0.133473RealScores: 112.907636 - 72.355770

West Coast 70 - 110 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.14 wins - 0.86 winsRealProbs: 0.135227 - 0.864773RealScores: 69.879186 - 110.140675

		W	L	D	%
1	Sydney	18 (17.85)	5	0	138.2
2	Fremantle	18 (18.02)	6	0	126.7
3	Geelong	16 (16.02)	7	0	126.4
4	Hawthorn	15 (15.07)	7	1	120.3
5	Brisbane Lions	14 (13.69)	9	0	114.5
6	Gold Coast	14 (13.56)	9	0	108.7
7	Adelaide	13 (13.06)	10	0	107.9
8	Melbourne	13 (12.95)	10	0	100.9
9	Collingwood	12 (11.72)	10	1	107.6
10	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.15)	11	0	100.2
11	St Kilda	11 (11.19)	12	0	104.9
12	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.20)	13	0	92.6
13	Port Adelaide	9 (9.43)	14	0	101.9
14	North Melbourne	9 (9.08)	14	0	91.4
15	Carlton	8 (8.10)	15	0	90.0
16	Essendon	6 (5.74)	18	0	76.3
17	West Coast	6 (5.70)	17	0	67.0
18	Richmond	3 (3.50)	20	0	60.8

FINALS: WEEK 1

Sydney Sydney 94 - 83 Hawthorn
S.C.G. (NSW)

Fremantle 88 - 80 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)

Brisbane Lions 107 - 86 Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)

Gold Coast 89 - 78 Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Hawthorn 98 - 85 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)

Geelong Geelong 98 - 82 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Sydney Sydney 95 - 86 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)

Fremantle 86 - 77 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)

2026 AFL GRAND FINAL

Fremantle 79 - 84 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE7

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Sydney	63.5	61.4	62.5
2	Geelong	64.7	58.9	61.8
3	Hawthorn	62.2	59.6	60.9
4	Fremantle	56.6	64.1	60.3
5	Brisbane Lions	61.5	55.9	58.7
6	Gold Coast	58.3	57.5	57.9
7	Collingwood	52.1	62.8	57.4
8	Western Bulldogs	57.5	55.5	56.5
9	Adelaide	54.5	57.5	56.0
10	St Kilda	55.0	54.7	54.9
11	Port Adelaide	51.3	57.8	54.5
12	Melbourne	58.4	50.2	54.3
13	Greater Western Sydney	54.4	52.7	53.6
14	Carlton	53.5	53.1	53.3
15	North Melbourne	54.1	48.9	51.5
16	Essendon	49.0	47.8	48.4
17	West Coast	43.8	45.0	44.4
18	Richmond	40.0	44.8	42.4

Western Bulldogs def Brisbane Lions	6.1%
Brisbane Lions def Western Bulldogs	5.9%
Brisbane Lions def Geelong	5.8%
Geelong def Brisbane Lions	5.3%
Western Bulldogs def Geelong	4.6%
Geelong def Western Bulldogs	4.3%
Brisbane Lions def Hawthorn	3.6%
Hawthorn def Brisbane Lions	2.9%
Western Bulldogs def Hawthorn	2.8%
Geelong def Hawthorn	2.8%
Brisbane Lions def Adelaide	2.3%
Hawthorn def Western Bulldogs	2.1%
Hawthorn def Geelong	2.0%
Brisbane Lions def Collingwood	1.8%
Brisbane Lions def Gold Coast	1.8%
Western Bulldogs def Adelaide	1.7%
Brisbane Lions def Carlton	1.7%
Geelong def Adelaide	1.6%
Western Bulldogs def Collingwood	1.6%
Western Bulldogs def Gold Coast	1.5%

		Flagpole Height
1	Sydney	62.4
2	Hawthorn	60.8
3	Geelong	60.4
4	Fremantle	59.7
5	Brisbane Lions	57.8
6	Collingwood	55.2
7	Gold Coast	55.2
8	Western Bulldogs	53.6
9	Adelaide	52.2
10	St Kilda	51.0
11	Melbourne	49.8
12	Port Adelaide	48.3
13	Greater Western Sydney	46.7
14	North Melbourne	43.5
15	Carlton	38.0
16	Essendon	32.0
17	West Coast	27.3
18	Richmond	21.0