Squiggle 2025

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

		Wins	%
1	Brisbane Lions	15.0	129.3%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
2	Hawthorn	14.9	130.0%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
3	Geelong	14.5	125.5%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
4	Western Bulldogs	14.0	122.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
5	Fremantle	13.7	118.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
6	Adelaide	12.9	112.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
7	Carlton	12.5	108.9%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
8	Collingwood	12.4	108.6%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
9	Port Adelaide	12.3	107.8%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
10	Melbourne	12.3	108.0%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
11	Sydney	11.9	104.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
12	Greater Western Sydney	11.0	98.2%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
13	Gold Coast	10.7	96.1%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
14	St Kilda	10.6	95.0%	1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
15	Essendon	9.7	89.4%	3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
16	West Coast	7.7	77.4%	6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
17	North Melbourne	6.4	70.1%	9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
18	Richmond	4.6	60.1%	12 13 14 15 16 17 18

Home & Away...

How Prediction Works

This is a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of squiggle tips. Sometimes a team will be tipped to win but not seem to be credited for it: this is because the predictor considers the likelihood of upsets. For details, click INFO → Prediction at the top of this page.

Round 0

Greater Western Sydney 83 - 85 Collingwood
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.480599 - 0.519401RealScores: 82.748572 - 84.758151

Sydney Sydney 74 - 85 Hawthorn
S.C.G. (NSW)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.392744 - 0.607256RealScores: 74.461365 - 84.841847

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	1 (0.56)	0	113.9
2	Collingwood	1 (0.50)	0	102.4
3	Greater Western Sydney	0 (0.50)	1	97.6
4	Sydney	0 (0.44)	1	87.8

Round 1

Adelaide 81 - 66 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.660015 - 0.339985RealScores: 81.308232 - 66.027481

Collingwood 82 - 74 Port Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.574514 - 0.425486RealScores: 81.641612 - 74.291900

Geelong Geelong 88 - 79 Fremantle
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.589511 - 0.410489RealScores: 87.798160 - 79.054171

Hawthorn 93 - 66 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.768138 - 0.231862RealScores: 92.919871 - 66.262941

Melbourne 83 - 71 Greater Western Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.617085 - 0.382915RealScores: 82.734168 - 71.449062

Richmond 66 - 107 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.13 wins - 0.87 winsRealProbs: 0.131366 - 0.868634RealScores: 66.348448 - 107.251368

Sydney Sydney 78 - 90 Brisbane Lions
S.C.G. (NSW)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.374818 - 0.625182RealScores: 77.948056 - 89.979304

West Coast 76 - 85 Gold Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.405538 - 0.594462RealScores: 75.751005 - 84.952580

Western Bulldogs 100 - 64 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.836046 - 0.163954RealScores: 99.784898 - 64.035990

		W	L	%
1	Carlton	1 (0.79)	0	161.6
2	Western Bulldogs	1 (0.76)	0	155.8
3	Hawthorn	1 (1.25)	1	126.3
4	Adelaide	1 (0.61)	0	123.1
5	Melbourne	1 (0.58)	0	115.8
6	Brisbane Lions	1 (0.58)	0	115.4
7	Gold Coast	1 (0.56)	0	112.1
8	Geelong	1 (0.55)	0	111.1
9	Collingwood	1 (1.04)	1	106.0
10	Greater Western Sydney	1 (0.92)	1	92.1
11	Sydney	1 (0.86)	1	87.2
12	Port Adelaide	0 (0.46)	1	91.0
13	Fremantle	0 (0.45)	1	90.0
14	West Coast	0 (0.44)	1	89.2
15	St Kilda	0 (0.39)	1	81.2
16	Essendon	0 (0.30)	1	71.3
17	North Melbourne	0 (0.24)	1	64.2
18	Richmond	0 (0.21)	1	61.9

Round 2

Brisbane Lions 111 - 64 West Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.902289 - 0.097711RealScores: 110.911493 - 64.034823

Carlton Carlton 72 - 86 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.351893 - 0.648107RealScores: 72.272338 - 86.431814

Essendon 79 - 85 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.432722 - 0.567278RealScores: 78.680489 - 85.351349

Fremantle 89 - 73 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.661974 - 0.338026RealScores: 88.795407 - 73.328701

North Melbourne 65 - 90 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.246137 - 0.753863RealScores: 65.039900 - 90.018214

Port Adelaide 106 - 57 Richmond
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.91 wins - 0.09 winsRealProbs: 0.913942 - 0.086058RealScores: 106.176149 - 57.061339

St Kilda 71 - 82 Geelong Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.38 wins - 0.62 winsRealProbs: 0.382867 - 0.617133RealScores: 70.651329 - 81.940801

Western Bulldogs 82 - 78 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.540458 - 0.459542RealScores: 82.274270 - 78.171025

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	2 (1.86)	1	124.0
2	Collingwood	2 (1.52)	1	102.2
3	Brisbane Lions	1 (1.41)	1	141.5
4	Port Adelaide	1 (1.30)	1	130.1
5	Western Bulldogs	1 (1.28)	1	128.0
6	Melbourne	1 (1.27)	1	126.6
7	Carlton	1 (1.18)	1	117.5
8	Adelaide	1 (1.15)	1	115.2
9	Geelong	1 (1.14)	1	113.4
10	Gold Coast	1 (0.56)	0	112.1
11	Fremantle	1 (1.06)	1	104.2
12	Greater Western Sydney	1 (0.92)	1	92.1
13	Sydney	1 (1.24)	2	85.6
14	St Kilda	1 (0.81)	1	83.7
15	Essendon	1 (0.76)	1	81.3
16	West Coast	1 (0.61)	1	71.4
17	North Melbourne	1 (0.55)	1	68.0
18	Richmond	0 (0.37)	2	57.8

Round 3

Adelaide 105 - 63 North Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.87 wins - 0.13 winsRealProbs: 0.874832 - 0.125168RealScores: 104.942428 - 62.991533

Brisbane Lions 93 - 79 Geelong Geelong
Gabba (QLD)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.644669 - 0.355331RealScores: 92.741805 - 78.903703

Carlton Carlton 76 - 84 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.423224 - 0.576776RealScores: 76.001504 - 83.562471

Essendon 73 - 80 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.425042 - 0.574958RealScores: 73.016512 - 80.407758

Hawthorn 92 - 69 Greater Western Sydney
York Park (TAS)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.737256 - 0.262744RealScores: 91.828614 - 68.720590

Melbourne 81 - 67 Gold Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.642872 - 0.357128RealScores: 80.764678 - 67.094118

St Kilda 92 - 58 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.823021 - 0.176979RealScores: 92.279545 - 58.434794

West Coast 68 - 99 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.20 wins - 0.80 winsRealProbs: 0.198963 - 0.801037RealScores: 67.786359 - 98.599326

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	3 (2.55)	1	126.4
2	Brisbane Lions	2 (2.02)	1	132.9
3	Adelaide	2 (1.96)	1	130.8
4	Melbourne	2 (1.88)	1	124.5
5	Port Adelaide	2 (1.85)	1	123.2
6	Western Bulldogs	2 (1.83)	1	121.7
7	Fremantle	2 (1.81)	1	116.4
8	Carlton	2 (1.62)	1	108.1
9	St Kilda	2 (1.57)	1	103.3
10	Geelong	2 (1.53)	1	102.6
11	Collingwood	2 (1.52)	1	102.2
12	Gold Coast	1 (0.95)	1	97.1
13	Greater Western Sydney	1 (1.24)	2	86.0
14	Sydney	1 (1.24)	2	85.6
15	Essendon	1 (1.21)	2	84.3
16	West Coast	1 (0.87)	2	70.5
17	North Melbourne	1 (0.74)	2	65.2
18	Richmond	1 (0.61)	2	59.5

Round 4

Collingwood 85 - 81 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.536686 - 0.463314RealScores: 85.078043 - 81.344034

Fremantle 82 - 74 Western Bulldogs
Perth Stadium (WA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.577676 - 0.422324RealScores: 81.711854 - 74.066927

Geelong Geelong 87 - 72 Melbourne
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.652864 - 0.347136RealScores: 86.608824 - 72.003046

Gold Coast 78 - 82 Adelaide
Carrara (QLD)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.457420 - 0.542580RealScores: 77.744047 - 82.054002

Greater Western Sydney 97 - 71 West Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.766301 - 0.233699RealScores: 97.116867 - 70.679884

North Melbourne 72 - 95 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.264408 - 0.735592RealScores: 71.868543 - 94.793652

Port Adelaide 77 - 61 St Kilda
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.669863 - 0.330137RealScores: 77.009595 - 60.789638

Richmond 63 - 120 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.05 wins - 0.95 winsRealProbs: 0.048797 - 0.951203RealScores: 63.089761 - 120.003528

		W	L	%
1	Brisbane Lions	3 (2.92)	1	145.7
2	Hawthorn	3 (2.55)	1	126.4
3	Port Adelaide	2 (2.49)	2	124.0
4	Adelaide	2 (2.49)	2	123.9
5	Fremantle	2 (2.37)	2	114.9
6	Western Bulldogs	2 (2.27)	2	113.3
7	Melbourne	2 (2.26)	2	112.2
8	Geelong	2 (2.15)	2	106.6
9	Carlton	2 (2.10)	2	104.8
10	Collingwood	2 (2.05)	2	102.8
11	St Kilda	2 (1.93)	2	97.0
12	Greater Western Sydney	2 (1.95)	2	97.0
13	Sydney	2 (1.93)	2	95.5
14	Gold Coast	1 (1.42)	2	96.3
15	Essendon	1 (1.21)	2	84.3
16	West Coast	1 (1.15)	3	71.1
17	North Melbourne	1 (1.05)	3	67.8
18	Richmond	1 (0.72)	3	57.5

Round 5

Adelaide 86 - 85 Geelong Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 85.597463 - 85.586878

Carlton Carlton 99 - 70 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.78 wins - 0.22 winsRealProbs: 0.783374 - 0.216626RealScores: 98.517394 - 69.988530

Collingwood 86 - 80 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.561052 - 0.438948RealScores: 86.385088 - 80.302361

Melbourne 83 - 69 Essendon
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.644565 - 0.355435RealScores: 82.754862 - 68.926403

North Melbourne 68 - 91 Gold Coast
Barossa Park (SA)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.270334 - 0.729666RealScores: 68.497514 - 90.777596

Port Adelaide 71 - 78 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.424374 - 0.575626RealScores: 70.544184 - 77.997821

Richmond 61 - 112 Fremantle
Barossa Park (SA)0.08 wins - 0.92 winsRealProbs: 0.077575 - 0.922425RealScores: 60.776017 - 111.578407

St Kilda 73 - 74 Greater Western Sydney
Norwood Oval (SA)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.496481 - 0.503519RealScores: 73.445202 - 73.816245

Western Bulldogs 76 - 84 Brisbane Lions
Norwood Oval (SA)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.419888 - 0.580112RealScores: 76.189822 - 84.061691

		W	L	%
1	Brisbane Lions	3 (3.48)	2	138.2
2	Fremantle	3 (3.23)	2	126.4
3	Hawthorn	3 (3.11)	2	123.2
4	Adelaide	3 (2.99)	2	118.4
5	Port Adelaide	3 (2.93)	2	116.5
6	Melbourne	3 (2.88)	2	113.7
7	Carlton	3 (2.83)	2	111.2
8	Western Bulldogs	3 (2.71)	2	108.3
9	Geelong	3 (2.65)	2	105.2
10	Collingwood	3 (2.59)	2	103.8
11	Gold Coast	2 (2.11)	2	104.4
12	Greater Western Sydney	2 (2.45)	3	97.6
13	St Kilda	2 (2.43)	3	97.5
14	Sydney	2 (2.38)	3	95.0
15	Essendon	2 (1.59)	2	84.0
16	West Coast	1 (1.42)	4	71.1
17	North Melbourne	1 (1.36)	4	69.2
18	Richmond	1 (0.85)	4	56.9

Round 6

Adelaide 92 - 74 Greater Western Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.684408 - 0.315592RealScores: 92.125937 - 74.494615

Brisbane Lions 94 - 74 Collingwood
Gabba (QLD)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.706005 - 0.293995RealScores: 93.903790 - 74.109530

Geelong Geelong 76 - 87 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.393830 - 0.606170RealScores: 76.244567 - 86.525111

Melbourne 76 - 74 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.521873 - 0.478127RealScores: 76.203803 - 73.944103

North Melbourne 68 - 99 Carlton Carlton
Docklands (VIC)0.19 wins - 0.81 winsRealProbs: 0.194027 - 0.805973RealScores: 67.888848 - 99.363527

Richmond 65 - 99 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.18 wins - 0.82 winsRealProbs: 0.179318 - 0.820682RealScores: 65.442199 - 98.953741

Sydney Sydney 78 - 77 Port Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.517861 - 0.482139RealScores: 78.483875 - 76.630751

West Coast 80 - 83 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.468254 - 0.531746RealScores: 79.913220 - 83.159968

Western Bulldogs 80 - 63 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.677233 - 0.322767RealScores: 79.699445 - 62.768334

		W	L	%
1	Brisbane Lions	4 (4.15)	2	136.2
2	Hawthorn	4 (3.70)	2	121.5
3	Fremantle	4 (3.72)	2	121.3
4	Adelaide	4 (3.64)	2	119.3
5	Carlton	4 (3.59)	2	116.4
6	Port Adelaide	3 (3.42)	3	113.1
7	Gold Coast	3 (2.88)	2	112.6
8	Melbourne	3 (3.39)	3	111.9
9	Western Bulldogs	3 (3.35)	3	110.9
10	Geelong	3 (3.06)	3	102.2
11	Collingwood	3 (2.92)	3	99.0
12	Sydney	3 (2.89)	3	96.2
13	Greater Western Sydney	3 (2.80)	3	94.5
14	St Kilda	3 (2.79)	3	94.2
15	Essendon	2 (2.11)	3	87.8
16	West Coast	2 (1.90)	4	74.7
17	North Melbourne	2 (1.61)	4	69.1
18	Richmond	1 (1.08)	5	58.3

Round 7

Carlton Carlton 82 - 89 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.438632 - 0.561368RealScores: 82.396357 - 88.508969

Collingwood 92 - 73 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.700596 - 0.299404RealScores: 92.137556 - 72.893555

Fremantle 89 - 73 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.66 wins - 0.34 winsRealProbs: 0.661227 - 0.338773RealScores: 88.742033 - 73.346250

Gold Coast 80 - 79 Sydney Sydney
Carrara (QLD)0.50 wins - 0.50 winsRealProbs: 0.500100 - 0.499900RealScores: 79.704727 - 79.694142

Greater Western Sydney 75 - 86 Western Bulldogs
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.387665 - 0.612335RealScores: 75.034859 - 85.882746

Hawthorn 109 - 58 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.923024 - 0.076976RealScores: 108.509681 - 57.586154

Melbourne 103 - 57 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.90 wins - 0.10 winsRealProbs: 0.898112 - 0.101888RealScores: 103.489921 - 57.393458

Port Adelaide 99 - 58 North Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.87 wins - 0.13 winsRealProbs: 0.871964 - 0.128036RealScores: 99.285399 - 57.822321

St Kilda 66 - 84 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.309537 - 0.690463RealScores: 65.898875 - 84.127799

		W	L	%
1	Brisbane Lions	5 (4.81)	2	135.1
2	Hawthorn	5 (4.57)	2	129.4
3	Fremantle	4 (4.35)	3	121.3
4	Port Adelaide	4 (4.24)	3	120.0
5	Melbourne	4 (4.24)	3	119.9
6	Adelaide	4 (4.01)	3	113.2
7	Carlton	4 (4.04)	3	112.7
8	Western Bulldogs	4 (3.95)	3	111.4
9	Geelong	4 (3.61)	3	102.9
10	Collingwood	4 (3.59)	3	102.6
11	Gold Coast	3 (3.38)	3	110.4
12	Sydney	3 (3.39)	4	96.7
13	Greater Western Sydney	3 (3.21)	4	93.5
14	St Kilda	3 (3.13)	4	91.7
15	Essendon	2 (2.44)	4	86.3
16	West Coast	2 (2.03)	5	71.2
17	North Melbourne	2 (1.79)	5	67.5
18	Richmond	1 (1.23)	6	57.9

Round 8

Adelaide 88 - 78 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.605429 - 0.394571RealScores: 87.927468 - 77.715179

Brisbane Lions 95 - 68 Gold Coast
Gabba (QLD)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.769027 - 0.230973RealScores: 94.587923 - 67.824097

Collingwood 84 - 87 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.469722 - 0.530278RealScores: 84.374404 - 87.475522

Essendon 90 - 71 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.697864 - 0.302136RealScores: 90.176171 - 71.207821

Hawthorn 119 - 55 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.98 wins - 0.02 winsRealProbs: 0.980241 - 0.019759RealScores: 118.826211 - 55.099365

St Kilda 69 - 76 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.429407 - 0.570593RealScores: 68.637281 - 75.619758

Sydney Sydney 86 - 80 Greater Western Sydney
S.C.G. (NSW)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.563486 - 0.436514RealScores: 86.273853 - 79.960737

West Coast 70 - 87 Melbourne
Perth Stadium (WA)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.320813 - 0.679187RealScores: 69.557183 - 86.678173

Western Bulldogs 82 - 68 Port Adelaide
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.644779 - 0.355221RealScores: 81.647075 - 67.798652

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	6 (5.50)	2	138.2
2	Brisbane Lions	6 (5.53)	2	135.6
3	Melbourne	5 (4.89)	3	120.5
4	Fremantle	5 (4.91)	3	120.0
5	Port Adelaide	5 (4.62)	3	114.7
6	Adelaide	5 (4.60)	3	113.2
7	Western Bulldogs	5 (4.57)	3	112.5
8	Carlton	4 (4.45)	4	109.3
9	Gold Coast	4 (3.65)	3	103.7
10	Geelong	4 (4.13)	4	103.0
11	Collingwood	4 (4.07)	4	101.7
12	Sydney	4 (3.94)	4	98.0
13	Greater Western Sydney	4 (3.65)	4	93.4
14	St Kilda	4 (3.57)	4	91.6
15	Essendon	3 (3.11)	4	91.2
16	West Coast	2 (2.38)	6	72.3
17	North Melbourne	2 (2.12)	6	68.8
18	Richmond	1 (1.30)	7	56.3

Round 9

Essendon 78 - 85 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.432810 - 0.567190RealScores: 78.356631 - 85.019167

Fremantle 88 - 74 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.644643 - 0.355357RealScores: 88.298504 - 74.462839

Geelong Geelong 99 - 73 Greater Western Sydney
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.760948 - 0.239052RealScores: 99.078295 - 73.275459

Gold Coast 70 - 85 Western Bulldogs
Marrara Oval (NT)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.346243 - 0.653757RealScores: 69.846284 - 84.536079

Melbourne 66 - 82 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.333896 - 0.666104RealScores: 65.731676 - 81.591692

North Melbourne 62 - 112 Brisbane Lions
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.08 wins - 0.92 winsRealProbs: 0.079406 - 0.920594RealScores: 61.891095 - 112.325036

Port Adelaide 78 - 77 Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.515100 - 0.484900RealScores: 78.330599 - 76.892668

Richmond 76 - 88 West Coast
M.C.G. (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.373059 - 0.626941RealScores: 76.280027 - 88.473613

St Kilda 68 - 79 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.394312 - 0.605688RealScores: 68.349471 - 78.585599

		W	L	%
1	Brisbane Lions	6 (6.41)	3	140.1
2	Hawthorn	6 (6.14)	3	136.7
3	Fremantle	6 (5.54)	3	119.8
4	Melbourne	5 (5.25)	4	115.4
5	Western Bulldogs	5 (5.20)	4	113.4
6	Port Adelaide	5 (5.13)	4	113.2
7	Adelaide	5 (5.09)	4	111.5
8	Carlton	5 (5.04)	4	109.9
9	Geelong	5 (4.85)	4	106.3
10	Gold Coast	4 (4.02)	4	100.9
11	Collingwood	4 (4.45)	5	99.7
12	Sydney	4 (4.50)	5	99.2
13	Essendon	4 (3.55)	4	91.3
14	St Kilda	4 (3.98)	5	91.1
15	Greater Western Sydney	4 (3.93)	5	90.8
16	West Coast	3 (2.98)	6	76.2
17	North Melbourne	2 (2.25)	7	67.1
18	Richmond	2 (1.69)	7	59.1

Round 10

Brisbane Lions 89 - 66 Melbourne
Gabba (QLD)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.739280 - 0.260720RealScores: 89.321014 - 65.989462

Collingwood 89 - 78 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.620230 - 0.379770RealScores: 89.162747 - 77.588022

Gold Coast 66 - 88 Hawthorn
Marrara Oval (NT)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.265581 - 0.734419RealScores: 65.648576 - 88.445302

Greater Western Sydney 78 - 85 Fremantle
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.419354 - 0.580646RealScores: 77.545907 - 85.467479

Port Adelaide 81 - 80 Geelong Geelong
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.51 wins - 0.49 winsRealProbs: 0.512437 - 0.487563RealScores: 80.543121 - 79.525060

Richmond 75 - 87 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.365714 - 0.634286RealScores: 74.529709 - 87.402558

Sydney Sydney 84 - 81 Carlton Carlton
S.C.G. (NSW)0.54 wins - 0.46 winsRealProbs: 0.536683 - 0.463317RealScores: 84.466622 - 81.013284

West Coast 70 - 77 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.430762 - 0.569238RealScores: 70.414219 - 77.237315

Western Bulldogs 92 - 67 Essendon
Docklands (VIC)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.746032 - 0.253968RealScores: 91.507313 - 67.421459

		W	L	%
1	Brisbane Lions	7 (7.11)	3	139.7
2	Hawthorn	7 (6.84)	3	136.5
3	Fremantle	6 (6.11)	4	118.8
4	Western Bulldogs	6 (5.91)	4	115.5
5	Port Adelaide	6 (5.63)	4	111.9
6	Melbourne	6 (5.55)	4	110.3
7	Carlton	6 (5.51)	4	108.4
8	Adelaide	5 (5.49)	5	108.7
9	Geelong	5 (5.35)	5	105.5
10	Collingwood	5 (5.05)	5	101.1
11	Sydney	5 (5.03)	5	99.7
12	St Kilda	5 (4.54)	5	92.8
13	Gold Coast	4 (4.32)	5	97.6
14	Greater Western Sydney	4 (4.36)	6	90.8
15	Essendon	4 (3.84)	5	89.2
16	West Coast	3 (3.43)	7	77.5
17	North Melbourne	3 (2.86)	7	71.0
18	Richmond	2 (2.08)	8	61.3

Round 11

Adelaide 105 - 64 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.864211 - 0.135789RealScores: 104.661889 - 64.493044

Carlton Carlton 91 - 75 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.672674 - 0.327326RealScores: 91.344397 - 74.854075

Essendon 100 - 65 Richmond
M.C.G. (VIC)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.829123 - 0.170877RealScores: 100.173641 - 65.447218

Fremantle 84 - 68 Port Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.667940 - 0.332060RealScores: 83.801813 - 67.766209

Geelong Geelong 86 - 78 Western Bulldogs
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.587159 - 0.412841RealScores: 86.432331 - 77.906098

Hawthorn 83 - 75 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.576033 - 0.423967RealScores: 82.714679 - 75.340778

Melbourne 82 - 72 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.600353 - 0.399647RealScores: 81.638099 - 71.893236

North Melbourne 67 - 103 Collingwood
Docklands (VIC)0.16 wins - 0.84 winsRealProbs: 0.162919 - 0.837081RealScores: 66.664441 - 102.568350

St Kilda 74 - 68 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.56 wins - 0.44 winsRealProbs: 0.562258 - 0.437742RealScores: 73.544977 - 67.615998

		W	L	%
1	Brisbane Lions	8 (7.55)	3	134.5
2	Hawthorn	7 (7.40)	4	133.8
3	Fremantle	7 (6.75)	4	119.2
4	Adelaide	6 (6.31)	5	112.8
5	Western Bulldogs	6 (6.33)	5	112.8
6	Melbourne	6 (6.13)	5	110.6
7	Carlton	6 (6.16)	5	109.5
8	Port Adelaide	6 (5.99)	5	108.7
9	Geelong	6 (5.93)	5	106.0
10	Collingwood	6 (5.84)	5	105.1
11	Sydney	5 (5.44)	6	98.6
12	Gold Coast	5 (4.77)	5	97.1
13	Essendon	5 (4.63)	5	94.2
14	St Kilda	5 (5.09)	6	94.1
15	Greater Western Sydney	5 (4.72)	6	90.0
16	West Coast	4 (3.61)	7	75.8
17	North Melbourne	3 (3.07)	8	70.4
18	Richmond	2 (2.29)	9	61.7

Round 12

Brisbane Lions 104 - 64 Essendon
Gabba (QLD)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.862720 - 0.137280RealScores: 103.830247 - 63.906387

Collingwood 72 - 87 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)0.35 wins - 0.65 winsRealProbs: 0.349712 - 0.650288RealScores: 72.495678 - 86.859517

Gold Coast 74 - 82 Fremantle
Carrara (QLD)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.412697 - 0.587303RealScores: 73.979033 - 82.393649

Greater Western Sydney 112 - 60 Richmond
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.93 wins - 0.07 winsRealProbs: 0.925728 - 0.074272RealScores: 111.636359 - 60.163056

Melbourne 73 - 63 St Kilda
Traeger Park (NT)0.60 wins - 0.40 winsRealProbs: 0.604447 - 0.395553RealScores: 73.211700 - 63.089764

Sydney Sydney 84 - 82 Adelaide
S.C.G. (NSW)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.532840 - 0.467160RealScores: 84.321464 - 81.541924

West Coast 73 - 103 Geelong Geelong
Perth Stadium (WA)0.21 wins - 0.79 winsRealProbs: 0.208153 - 0.791847RealScores: 73.434591 - 103.043135

		W	L	%
1	Brisbane Lions	8 (8.36)	4	136.6
2	Hawthorn	8 (8.03)	4	132.6
3	Fremantle	7 (7.32)	5	118.5
4	Adelaide	7 (6.79)	5	111.3
5	Melbourne	7 (6.72)	5	111.0
6	Geelong	7 (6.68)	5	108.6
7	Western Bulldogs	6 (6.33)	5	112.8
8	Carlton	6 (6.16)	5	109.5
9	Port Adelaide	6 (5.99)	5	108.7
10	Collingwood	6 (6.21)	6	103.1
11	Sydney	6 (5.96)	6	99.0
12	Greater Western Sydney	6 (5.60)	6	95.7
13	Gold Coast	5 (5.20)	6	96.4
14	St Kilda	5 (5.50)	7	93.5
15	Essendon	5 (4.81)	6	90.6
16	West Coast	4 (3.86)	8	75.4
17	North Melbourne	3 (3.07)	8	70.4
18	Richmond	2 (2.41)	10	61.0

Round 13

Adelaide 79 - 88 Brisbane Lions
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.409126 - 0.590874RealScores: 79.424596 - 88.073471

Carlton Carlton 90 - 73 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.679061 - 0.320939RealScores: 90.322455 - 73.213743

Geelong Geelong 98 - 67 Gold Coast
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.80 wins - 0.20 winsRealProbs: 0.799132 - 0.200868RealScores: 97.957084 - 67.396796

Greater Western Sydney 77 - 79 Port Adelaide
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.466093 - 0.533907RealScores: 76.534026 - 79.295819

Melbourne 76 - 79 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.461031 - 0.538969RealScores: 75.578918 - 78.849371

North Melbourne 76 - 86 West Coast
Hands Oval (WA)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.393695 - 0.606305RealScores: 76.029354 - 86.322248

Richmond 65 - 107 Sydney Sydney
M.C.G. (VIC)0.12 wins - 0.88 winsRealProbs: 0.123340 - 0.876660RealScores: 65.180492 - 107.444892

Western Bulldogs 72 - 80 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.417697 - 0.582303RealScores: 72.112802 - 79.851947

		W	L	%
1	Brisbane Lions	9 (8.94)	4	134.4
2	Hawthorn	9 (8.60)	4	130.8
3	Fremantle	7 (7.32)	5	118.5
4	Geelong	7 (7.43)	6	111.0
5	Western Bulldogs	7 (6.77)	5	110.8
6	Carlton	7 (6.81)	5	110.6
7	Melbourne	7 (7.20)	6	109.7
8	Adelaide	7 (7.22)	6	109.5
9	Port Adelaide	7 (6.50)	5	108.2
10	Collingwood	7 (6.74)	6	103.2
11	Sydney	7 (6.79)	6	103.1
12	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.08)	7	95.8
13	Gold Coast	5 (5.44)	7	93.6
14	St Kilda	5 (5.50)	7	93.5
15	Essendon	5 (5.16)	7	89.8
16	West Coast	4 (4.45)	9	77.8
17	North Melbourne	3 (3.48)	9	71.7
18	Richmond	3 (2.58)	10	61.0

Round 14

Brisbane Lions 101 - 68 Greater Western Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.82 wins - 0.18 winsRealProbs: 0.816498 - 0.183502RealScores: 101.071346 - 68.149260

Essendon 74 - 96 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.269440 - 0.730560RealScores: 73.922519 - 96.299310

Hawthorn 89 - 70 Adelaide
York Park (TAS)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.703898 - 0.296102RealScores: 89.227486 - 69.648283

North Melbourne 59 - 106 Fremantle
Perth Stadium (WA)0.10 wins - 0.90 winsRealProbs: 0.096592 - 0.903408RealScores: 59.123900 - 106.211665

Port Adelaide 78 - 66 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.630469 - 0.369531RealScores: 78.126515 - 65.606957

St Kilda 63 - 80 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.33 wins - 0.67 winsRealProbs: 0.325756 - 0.674244RealScores: 62.913012 - 79.554767

West Coast 74 - 94 Carlton Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.29 wins - 0.71 winsRealProbs: 0.293707 - 0.706293RealScores: 74.341095 - 94.164829

		W	L	%
1	Brisbane Lions	10 (9.71)	4	135.4
2	Hawthorn	9 (9.27)	5	130.6
3	Fremantle	8 (8.18)	5	122.4
4	Geelong	8 (8.13)	6	112.3
5	Melbourne	8 (7.59)	6	107.8
6	Adelaide	8 (7.54)	6	106.9
7	Carlton	7 (7.48)	6	111.8
8	Western Bulldogs	7 (7.41)	6	111.8
9	Port Adelaide	7 (7.12)	6	109.0
10	Collingwood	7 (6.74)	6	103.2
11	Sydney	7 (6.79)	6	103.1
12	Greater Western Sydney	6 (6.31)	8	93.3
13	St Kilda	6 (5.85)	7	92.3
14	Gold Coast	5 (5.44)	7	93.6
15	Essendon	5 (5.47)	8	88.6
16	West Coast	5 (4.77)	9	77.9
17	North Melbourne	4 (3.62)	9	70.4
18	Richmond	3 (2.58)	10	61.0

Round 15

Carlton Carlton 103 - 64 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.85 wins - 0.15 winsRealProbs: 0.854366 - 0.145634RealScores: 102.913566 - 64.338810

Collingwood 81 - 68 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.635629 - 0.364371RealScores: 80.579997 - 67.582733

Fremantle 96 - 65 Essendon
Perth Stadium (WA)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.806047 - 0.193953RealScores: 96.144866 - 64.660224

Geelong Geelong 88 - 84 Brisbane Lions
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.55 wins - 0.45 winsRealProbs: 0.549034 - 0.450966RealScores: 87.850948 - 83.794559

Greater Western Sydney 84 - 76 Gold Coast
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.590852 - 0.409148RealScores: 84.122211 - 75.738793

Port Adelaide 85 - 70 Sydney Sydney
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.651562 - 0.348438RealScores: 84.799006 - 70.315620

Western Bulldogs 117 - 54 Richmond
Docklands (VIC)0.97 wins - 0.03 winsRealProbs: 0.974146 - 0.025854RealScores: 116.682799 - 54.442760

		W	L	%
1	Brisbane Lions	10 (10.18)	5	132.1
2	Hawthorn	9 (9.27)	5	130.6
3	Fremantle	9 (8.94)	5	124.1
4	Geelong	9 (8.66)	6	111.8
5	Western Bulldogs	8 (8.34)	6	117.3
6	Carlton	8 (8.29)	6	114.7
7	Port Adelaide	8 (7.74)	6	109.8
8	Melbourne	8 (7.59)	6	107.8
9	Adelaide	8 (7.54)	6	106.9
10	Collingwood	7 (7.35)	7	104.2
11	Sydney	7 (7.16)	7	101.6
12	Greater Western Sydney	7 (6.88)	8	94.4
13	Gold Coast	6 (5.87)	7	93.3
14	St Kilda	6 (6.24)	8	91.6
15	Essendon	6 (5.70)	8	86.9
16	West Coast	5 (4.77)	9	77.9
17	North Melbourne	4 (3.81)	10	69.8
18	Richmond	3 (2.65)	11	59.8

Round 16

Collingwood 106 - 64 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.88 wins - 0.12 winsRealProbs: 0.875820 - 0.124180RealScores: 106.261934 - 64.141837

Fremantle 85 - 59 St Kilda
Perth Stadium (WA)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.756974 - 0.243026RealScores: 84.797678 - 59.459360

Gold Coast 73 - 75 Melbourne
Carrara (QLD)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.472665 - 0.527335RealScores: 73.035665 - 74.823131

Hawthorn 110 - 55 North Melbourne
York Park (TAS)0.94 wins - 0.06 winsRealProbs: 0.941892 - 0.058108RealScores: 110.145442 - 55.276119

Port Adelaide 83 - 72 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.618065 - 0.381935RealScores: 83.043634 - 71.859241

Richmond 64 - 110 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)0.10 wins - 0.90 winsRealProbs: 0.103228 - 0.896772RealScores: 64.303509 - 110.152092

Sydney Sydney 77 - 83 Western Bulldogs
S.C.G. (NSW)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.427234 - 0.572766RealScores: 76.788677 - 83.163607

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	10 (10.17)	5	134.3
2	Brisbane Lions	10 (10.18)	5	132.1
3	Fremantle	10 (9.66)	5	125.1
4	Western Bulldogs	9 (8.90)	6	116.7
5	Carlton	9 (8.70)	6	112.7
6	Geelong	9 (8.66)	6	111.8
7	Adelaide	8 (8.40)	7	110.5
8	Port Adelaide	8 (8.34)	7	110.2
9	Collingwood	8 (8.18)	7	107.5
10	Melbourne	8 (8.09)	7	107.4
11	Sydney	8 (7.61)	7	101.0
12	Greater Western Sydney	7 (6.88)	8	94.4
13	St Kilda	7 (6.52)	8	90.1
14	Gold Coast	6 (6.37)	8	93.6
15	Essendon	6 (5.70)	8	86.9
16	West Coast	5 (4.94)	10	76.6
17	North Melbourne	4 (3.91)	11	68.3
18	Richmond	3 (2.79)	12	59.7

Round 17

Adelaide 83 - 71 Melbourne
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.63 wins - 0.37 winsRealProbs: 0.625318 - 0.374682RealScores: 82.777069 - 70.920841

Brisbane Lions 90 - 66 Port Adelaide
Gabba (QLD)0.74 wins - 0.26 winsRealProbs: 0.742241 - 0.257759RealScores: 90.132684 - 66.471995

Carlton Carlton 82 - 85 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.458486 - 0.541514RealScores: 81.661369 - 84.760708

Essendon 78 - 79 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.487831 - 0.512169RealScores: 78.292867 - 78.507118

Geelong Geelong 125 - 59 Richmond
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.99 wins - 0.01 winsRealProbs: 0.990000 - 0.010000RealScores: 124.725002 - 58.553125

North Melbourne 60 - 104 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.11 wins - 0.89 winsRealProbs: 0.114636 - 0.885364RealScores: 60.018132 - 103.802756

St Kilda 60 - 83 Hawthorn
Docklands (VIC)0.26 wins - 0.74 winsRealProbs: 0.261291 - 0.738709RealScores: 59.542343 - 82.810701

Sydney Sydney 79 - 83 Fremantle
S.C.G. (NSW)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.457713 - 0.542287RealScores: 79.473787 - 82.650321

West Coast 78 - 90 Greater Western Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.371735 - 0.628265RealScores: 77.808370 - 89.988381

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	11 (10.87)	5	134.6
2	Brisbane Lions	11 (10.88)	5	132.3
3	Fremantle	10 (10.18)	6	123.7
4	Western Bulldogs	10 (9.74)	6	119.6
5	Geelong	10 (9.60)	6	116.6
6	Carlton	9 (9.18)	7	111.6
7	Adelaide	9 (9.00)	7	110.8
8	Port Adelaide	9 (8.64)	7	107.4
9	Collingwood	9 (8.70)	7	107.3
10	Melbourne	8 (8.49)	8	105.9
11	Sydney	8 (8.09)	8	100.7
12	Greater Western Sydney	7 (7.49)	9	95.6
13	Gold Coast	7 (6.87)	8	94.0
14	St Kilda	7 (6.82)	9	88.8
15	Essendon	6 (6.20)	9	87.7
16	West Coast	5 (5.34)	11	77.2
17	North Melbourne	4 (4.07)	12	67.6
18	Richmond	3 (2.85)	13	58.8

Round 18

Carlton Carlton 77 - 90 Brisbane Lions
Docklands (VIC)0.36 wins - 0.64 winsRealProbs: 0.362078 - 0.637922RealScores: 77.090460 - 90.220481

Fremantle 77 - 78 Hawthorn
Perth Stadium (WA)0.48 wins - 0.52 winsRealProbs: 0.480627 - 0.519373RealScores: 76.836086 - 77.665551

Gold Coast 77 - 84 Collingwood
Carrara (QLD)0.42 wins - 0.58 winsRealProbs: 0.423398 - 0.576602RealScores: 77.047928 - 83.613344

Greater Western Sydney 80 - 92 Geelong Geelong
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.37 wins - 0.63 winsRealProbs: 0.374300 - 0.625700RealScores: 80.285531 - 92.068224

Melbourne 95 - 60 North Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.834073 - 0.165927RealScores: 95.256629 - 59.801485

Port Adelaide 99 - 59 West Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.863371 - 0.136629RealScores: 99.136723 - 59.106000

Richmond 65 - 100 Essendon
M.C.G. (VIC)0.17 wins - 0.83 winsRealProbs: 0.170968 - 0.829032RealScores: 65.453892 - 100.166967

St Kilda 73 - 74 Sydney Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.49 wins - 0.51 winsRealProbs: 0.487090 - 0.512910RealScores: 73.348814 - 73.551143

Western Bulldogs 88 - 71 Adelaide
Eureka Stadium (VIC)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.676652 - 0.323348RealScores: 88.349491 - 71.474754

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	11 (11.37)	6	132.4
2	Brisbane Lions	11 (11.50)	6	131.4
3	Fremantle	11 (10.68)	6	122.1
4	Western Bulldogs	10 (10.38)	7	119.9
5	Geelong	10 (10.20)	7	116.5
6	Carlton	10 (9.57)	7	109.8
7	Port Adelaide	9 (9.45)	8	110.3
8	Adelaide	9 (9.35)	8	108.9
9	Melbourne	9 (9.28)	8	108.5
10	Collingwood	9 (9.25)	8	107.4
11	Sydney	9 (8.59)	8	100.6
12	Greater Western Sydney	8 (7.89)	9	95.1
13	Gold Coast	7 (7.31)	9	93.9
14	Essendon	7 (6.99)	9	90.9
15	St Kilda	7 (7.32)	10	89.4
16	West Coast	6 (5.52)	11	76.1
17	North Melbourne	4 (4.28)	13	67.3
18	Richmond	3 (3.07)	14	59.2

Round 19

Adelaide 91 - 69 Gold Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.733434 - 0.266566RealScores: 91.243594 - 68.554455

Brisbane Lions 89 - 71 Western Bulldogs
Gabba (QLD)0.68 wins - 0.32 winsRealProbs: 0.683531 - 0.316469RealScores: 88.898432 - 71.353081

Carlton Carlton 78 - 76 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.53 wins - 0.47 winsRealProbs: 0.530348 - 0.469652RealScores: 77.591946 - 75.771598

Collingwood 85 - 78 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.582208 - 0.417792RealScores: 84.905584 - 77.855759

Essendon 82 - 81 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.515903 - 0.484097RealScores: 82.013862 - 81.601321

Geelong Geelong 90 - 63 St Kilda
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.77 wins - 0.23 winsRealProbs: 0.774698 - 0.225302RealScores: 90.022203 - 62.569927

Hawthorn 84 - 65 Port Adelaide
York Park (TAS)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.703429 - 0.296571RealScores: 84.036712 - 64.505292

Sydney Sydney 103 - 63 North Melbourne
S.C.G. (NSW)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.863040 - 0.136960RealScores: 103.319286 - 63.342909

West Coast 99 - 66 Richmond
Perth Stadium (WA)0.81 wins - 0.19 winsRealProbs: 0.812704 - 0.187296RealScores: 98.574049 - 66.179591

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	12 (12.03)	6	132.2
2	Brisbane Lions	12 (12.15)	6	131.0
3	Fremantle	11 (11.13)	7	120.1
4	Geelong	11 (10.93)	7	117.7
5	Western Bulldogs	11 (10.73)	7	117.2
6	Adelaide	10 (10.05)	8	110.0
7	Carlton	10 (10.07)	8	109.4
8	Port Adelaide	10 (9.79)	8	108.1
9	Melbourne	10 (9.78)	8	107.8
10	Collingwood	10 (9.81)	8	107.5
11	Sydney	9 (9.41)	9	103.4
12	Greater Western Sydney	8 (8.39)	10	95.3
13	Gold Coast	8 (7.62)	9	92.7
14	St Kilda	8 (7.59)	10	88.2
15	Essendon	7 (7.49)	10	91.4
16	West Coast	6 (6.29)	12	79.0
17	North Melbourne	4 (4.46)	14	67.0
18	Richmond	3 (3.30)	15	59.6

Round 20

Adelaide 78 - 77 Port Adelaide
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.52 wins - 0.48 winsRealProbs: 0.516361 - 0.483639RealScores: 77.802199 - 77.421068

Essendon 67 - 92 Western Bulldogs
Docklands (VIC)0.25 wins - 0.75 winsRealProbs: 0.253715 - 0.746285RealScores: 67.407158 - 91.521614

Fremantle 103 - 64 West Coast
Perth Stadium (WA)0.86 wins - 0.14 winsRealProbs: 0.857342 - 0.142658RealScores: 102.718287 - 63.667398

Gold Coast 68 - 94 Brisbane Lions
Carrara (QLD)0.24 wins - 0.76 winsRealProbs: 0.240917 - 0.759083RealScores: 68.413924 - 93.998096

Greater Western Sydney 82 - 84 Sydney Sydney
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.46 wins - 0.54 winsRealProbs: 0.459885 - 0.540115RealScores: 81.765959 - 84.468632

Hawthorn 89 - 70 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.704392 - 0.295608RealScores: 89.166835 - 69.537317

North Melbourne 66 - 109 Geelong Geelong
Docklands (VIC)0.12 wins - 0.88 winsRealProbs: 0.116305 - 0.883695RealScores: 65.984185 - 109.473587

Richmond 59 - 117 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.04 wins - 0.96 winsRealProbs: 0.044014 - 0.955986RealScores: 59.024491 - 117.014320

St Kilda 65 - 71 Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.43 wins - 0.57 winsRealProbs: 0.427528 - 0.572472RealScores: 65.172248 - 71.129216

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	13 (12.70)	6	132.0
2	Brisbane Lions	13 (12.86)	6	131.3
3	Fremantle	12 (11.93)	7	122.0
4	Geelong	12 (11.77)	7	119.9
5	Western Bulldogs	11 (11.43)	8	118.1
6	Collingwood	11 (10.72)	8	111.1
7	Adelaide	11 (10.55)	8	109.5
8	Melbourne	10 (10.32)	9	107.9
9	Port Adelaide	10 (10.29)	9	107.7
10	Carlton	10 (10.40)	9	107.5
11	Sydney	10 (9.92)	9	103.4
12	Greater Western Sydney	9 (8.88)	10	95.4
13	Gold Coast	8 (7.91)	10	91.4
14	Essendon	8 (7.78)	10	90.3
15	St Kilda	8 (8.05)	11	88.3
16	West Coast	6 (6.48)	13	78.0
17	North Melbourne	5 (4.63)	14	66.6
18	Richmond	3 (3.39)	16	59.0

Round 21

Adelaide 75 - 84 Hawthorn
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.39 wins - 0.61 winsRealProbs: 0.392718 - 0.607282RealScores: 74.690188 - 84.185582

Collingwood 80 - 88 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)0.40 wins - 0.60 winsRealProbs: 0.397772 - 0.602228RealScores: 79.526396 - 88.486925

Fremantle 90 - 72 Carlton Carlton
Perth Stadium (WA)0.69 wins - 0.31 winsRealProbs: 0.685513 - 0.314487RealScores: 89.768470 - 72.028570

Geelong Geelong 90 - 70 Port Adelaide
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.72 wins - 0.28 winsRealProbs: 0.715336 - 0.284664RealScores: 90.413322 - 69.654859

Gold Coast 107 - 57 Richmond
Carrara (QLD)0.92 wins - 0.08 winsRealProbs: 0.920681 - 0.079319RealScores: 107.423717 - 56.972223

Melbourne 96 - 61 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.831461 - 0.168539RealScores: 95.652182 - 60.583174

St Kilda 85 - 61 North Melbourne
Docklands (VIC)0.75 wins - 0.25 winsRealProbs: 0.749468 - 0.250532RealScores: 85.374148 - 60.899042

Sydney Sydney 92 - 71 Essendon
S.C.G. (NSW)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.714309 - 0.285691RealScores: 92.013619 - 71.362179

Western Bulldogs 93 - 68 Greater Western Sydney
Docklands (VIC)0.76 wins - 0.24 winsRealProbs: 0.757275 - 0.242725RealScores: 93.145441 - 67.772164

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	13 (13.28)	7	131.0
2	Brisbane Lions	13 (13.43)	7	130.2
3	Fremantle	13 (12.58)	7	122.2
4	Geelong	12 (12.44)	8	120.3
5	Western Bulldogs	12 (12.15)	8	119.0
6	Melbourne	11 (11.10)	9	110.0
7	Collingwood	11 (11.15)	9	109.9
8	Adelaide	11 (10.97)	9	108.4
9	Carlton	11 (10.75)	9	106.0
10	Port Adelaide	11 (10.61)	9	105.8
11	Sydney	11 (10.59)	9	104.5
12	Gold Coast	9 (8.78)	10	95.0
13	Greater Western Sydney	9 (9.16)	11	94.2
14	St Kilda	9 (8.75)	11	90.4
15	Essendon	8 (8.11)	11	89.6
16	West Coast	7 (6.70)	13	77.2
17	North Melbourne	5 (4.92)	15	66.8
18	Richmond	4 (3.52)	16	58.7

Round 22

Brisbane Lions 99 - 69 Sydney Sydney
Gabba (QLD)0.79 wins - 0.21 winsRealProbs: 0.789822 - 0.210178RealScores: 98.637615 - 69.289746

Carlton Carlton 88 - 71 Gold Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.673145 - 0.326855RealScores: 87.960259 - 71.424570

Geelong Geelong 103 - 67 Essendon
Kardinia Park (Gee)0.84 wins - 0.16 winsRealProbs: 0.840625 - 0.159375RealScores: 103.330258 - 66.891570

Greater Western Sydney 101 - 65 North Melbourne
Manuka Oval (NSW)0.83 wins - 0.17 winsRealProbs: 0.833374 - 0.166626RealScores: 100.843060 - 65.491610

Hawthorn 88 - 71 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)0.67 wins - 0.33 winsRealProbs: 0.674752 - 0.325248RealScores: 88.023040 - 71.332155

Melbourne 70 - 78 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.409727 - 0.590273RealScores: 70.231723 - 77.854687

Port Adelaide 79 - 72 Fremantle
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.584813 - 0.415187RealScores: 79.312784 - 72.255237

Richmond 58 - 93 St Kilda
M.C.G. (VIC)0.16 wins - 0.84 winsRealProbs: 0.164505 - 0.835495RealScores: 57.523861 - 93.190477

West Coast 73 - 96 Adelaide
Perth Stadium (WA)0.27 wins - 0.73 winsRealProbs: 0.268912 - 0.731088RealScores: 73.360476 - 95.794457

		W	L	%
1	Brisbane Lions	14 (14.17)	7	130.8
2	Hawthorn	14 (13.91)	7	130.6
3	Geelong	13 (13.23)	8	121.8
4	Fremantle	13 (13.03)	8	120.5
5	Western Bulldogs	13 (12.70)	8	118.6
6	Adelaide	12 (11.66)	9	109.4
7	Melbourne	12 (11.54)	9	109.0
8	Collingwood	12 (11.51)	9	108.4
9	Carlton	11 (11.39)	10	106.7
10	Port Adelaide	11 (11.16)	10	106.0
11	Sydney	11 (10.85)	10	102.5
12	Greater Western Sydney	10 (9.95)	11	96.4
13	St Kilda	10 (9.54)	11	93.0
14	Gold Coast	9 (9.14)	11	94.3
15	Essendon	8 (8.32)	12	88.1
16	West Coast	7 (7.01)	14	77.2
17	North Melbourne	5 (5.14)	16	66.7
18	Richmond	4 (3.73)	17	58.9

Round 23

Adelaide 88 - 79 Collingwood
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.61 wins - 0.39 winsRealProbs: 0.609407 - 0.390593RealScores: 88.148881 - 78.601888

Carlton Carlton 81 - 73 Port Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.59 wins - 0.41 winsRealProbs: 0.594891 - 0.405109RealScores: 81.462499 - 73.440376

Essendon 70 - 75 St Kilda
Docklands (VIC)0.44 wins - 0.56 winsRealProbs: 0.436362 - 0.563638RealScores: 69.739746 - 74.561661

Fremantle 81 - 82 Brisbane Lions
Perth Stadium (WA)0.47 wins - 0.53 winsRealProbs: 0.473635 - 0.526365RealScores: 80.885578 - 82.026051

Gold Coast 83 - 77 Greater Western Sydney
Carrara (QLD)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.574927 - 0.425073RealScores: 82.913187 - 76.947817

Hawthorn 83 - 64 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.70 wins - 0.30 winsRealProbs: 0.701193 - 0.298807RealScores: 83.313922 - 64.009446

North Melbourne 91 - 71 Richmond
Bellerive Oval (TAS)0.71 wins - 0.29 winsRealProbs: 0.708021 - 0.291979RealScores: 90.966615 - 70.965653

Sydney Sydney 82 - 89 Geelong Geelong
S.C.G. (NSW)0.41 wins - 0.59 winsRealProbs: 0.414882 - 0.585118RealScores: 82.155494 - 89.165137

Western Bulldogs 107 - 58 West Coast
Docklands (VIC)0.91 wins - 0.09 winsRealProbs: 0.913054 - 0.086946RealScores: 106.856753 - 57.915685

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	15 (14.57)	7	130.6
2	Brisbane Lions	15 (14.67)	7	129.3
3	Geelong	14 (13.78)	8	121.1
4	Western Bulldogs	14 (13.56)	8	121.0
5	Fremantle	14 (13.53)	8	119.4
6	Adelaide	12 (12.23)	10	109.5
7	Collingwood	12 (11.94)	10	107.4
8	Melbourne	12 (11.89)	10	107.3
9	Carlton	12 (11.95)	10	106.9
10	Port Adelaide	12 (11.61)	10	105.2
11	Sydney	11 (11.31)	11	102.0
12	Greater Western Sydney	10 (10.41)	12	96.2
13	Gold Coast	10 (9.68)	11	94.9
14	St Kilda	10 (10.06)	12	93.6
15	Essendon	9 (8.79)	12	88.4
16	West Coast	7 (7.15)	15	76.0
17	North Melbourne	6 (5.80)	16	68.8
18	Richmond	4 (4.07)	18	59.6

Round 24

Brisbane Lions 82 - 76 Hawthorn
Gabba (QLD)0.58 wins - 0.42 winsRealProbs: 0.584946 - 0.415054RealScores: 82.485707 - 75.569749

Collingwood 80 - 75 Melbourne
M.C.G. (VIC)0.57 wins - 0.43 winsRealProbs: 0.570008 - 0.429992RealScores: 79.910444 - 74.517844

Essendon 73 - 90 Carlton Carlton
M.C.G. (VIC)0.32 wins - 0.68 winsRealProbs: 0.323983 - 0.676017RealScores: 73.366484 - 90.169714

Gold Coast 86 - 71 Essendon
Carrara (QLD)0.65 wins - 0.35 winsRealProbs: 0.653842 - 0.346158RealScores: 85.545415 - 71.254570

Greater Western Sydney 79 - 68 St Kilda
Sydney Showground (NSW)0.62 wins - 0.38 winsRealProbs: 0.621663 - 0.378337RealScores: 79.015981 - 68.245465

North Melbourne 69 - 99 Adelaide
Docklands (VIC)0.21 wins - 0.79 winsRealProbs: 0.205326 - 0.794674RealScores: 68.979373 - 98.954588

Port Adelaide 86 - 64 Gold Coast
Adelaide Oval (SA)0.73 wins - 0.27 winsRealProbs: 0.727274 - 0.272726RealScores: 85.736607 - 63.714203

Richmond 60 - 124 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)0.02 wins - 0.98 winsRealProbs: 0.018992 - 0.981008RealScores: 59.681009 - 123.597118

West Coast 75 - 93 Sydney Sydney
Perth Stadium (WA)0.31 wins - 0.69 winsRealProbs: 0.307894 - 0.692106RealScores: 74.805515 - 93.197738

Western Bulldogs 84 - 72 Fremantle
Docklands (VIC)0.64 wins - 0.36 winsRealProbs: 0.639008 - 0.360992RealScores: 84.214594 - 71.564187

		W	L	%
1	Hawthorn	15 (15.03)	8	128.5
2	Brisbane Lions	15 (15.22)	8	128.3
3	Geelong	15 (14.71)	8	124.1
4	Western Bulldogs	14 (14.16)	9	120.9
5	Fremantle	14 (13.93)	9	117.7
6	Adelaide	13 (12.97)	10	110.9
7	Carlton	13 (12.58)	10	107.5
8	Collingwood	12 (12.47)	11	107.4
9	Melbourne	12 (12.36)	11	106.6
10	Port Adelaide	12 (12.29)	11	106.3
11	Sydney	12 (11.96)	11	102.9
12	Greater Western Sydney	11 (10.99)	12	96.9
13	Gold Coast	11 (10.61)	12	94.9
14	St Kilda	10 (10.48)	13	93.3
15	Essendon	10 (9.55)	13	87.8
16	West Coast	7 (7.50)	16	76.2
17	North Melbourne	6 (6.06)	17	68.8
18	Richmond	4 (4.14)	19	59.0

FINALS: WEEK 1

Hawthorn 82 - 70 Western Bulldogs
M.C.G. (VIC)

Brisbane Lions 95 - 77 Geelong Geelong
Gabba (QLD)

Fremantle 89 - 74 Collingwood
Perth Stadium (WA)

Adelaide 88 - 77 Carlton Carlton
Adelaide Oval (SA)

FINALS: WEEK 2

Western Bulldogs 84 - 72 Fremantle
M.C.G. (VIC)

Geelong Geelong 92 - 79 Adelaide
M.C.G. (VIC)

FINALS: WEEK 3

Hawthorn 89 - 74 Geelong Geelong
M.C.G. (VIC)

Brisbane Lions 89 - 71 Western Bulldogs
Gabba (QLD)

2025 AFL GRAND FINAL

Brisbane Lions 77 - 81 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE7

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Hawthorn	58.6	66.5	62.5
2	Brisbane Lions	61.5	62.7	62.1
3	Western Bulldogs	55.4	61.4	58.4
4	Geelong	59.4	57.3	58.3
5	Fremantle	55.1	59.3	57.2
6	Collingwood	55.6	56.4	56.0
7	Port Adelaide	51.1	59.9	55.5
8	Adelaide	54.6	55.9	55.2
9	Melbourne	50.0	59.7	54.8
10	Carlton	54.0	55.6	54.8
11	Sydney	53.0	54.4	53.7
12	Greater Western Sydney	51.8	52.8	52.3
13	Gold Coast	49.3	54.7	52.0
14	St Kilda	44.7	58.4	51.6
15	Essendon	47.8	50.8	49.3
16	West Coast	43.8	45.2	44.5
17	North Melbourne	41.9	44.5	43.2
18	Richmond	37.7	39.6	38.6

Hawthorn def Brisbane Lions	5.8%
Brisbane Lions def Hawthorn	4.5%
Hawthorn def Geelong	3.7%
Hawthorn def Western Bulldogs	3.3%
Brisbane Lions def Geelong	3.3%
Hawthorn def Fremantle	3.2%
Brisbane Lions def Fremantle	3.0%
Brisbane Lions def Western Bulldogs	2.8%
Geelong def Brisbane Lions	2.5%
Geelong def Hawthorn	2.4%
Western Bulldogs def Brisbane Lions	2.2%
Western Bulldogs def Hawthorn	2.1%
Brisbane Lions def Adelaide	1.9%
Hawthorn def Adelaide	1.8%
Fremantle def Brisbane Lions	1.7%
Geelong def Fremantle	1.6%
Brisbane Lions def Port Adelaide	1.5%
Geelong def Western Bulldogs	1.5%
Hawthorn def Collingwood	1.4%
Fremantle def Hawthorn	1.4%