Squiggle 2025

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Thu Aug 28 01:09:11 2025 (R28)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2025 ROUND 27 TIPS

Collingwood 77 - 71 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +7.9 pts
Ins/Outs: +0.0 pts

Geelong Geelong 83 - 82 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: +0.6 pts
Ins/Outs: Geelong +0.0 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE7
Tips after Round 26: 154

History...

In 2025, algorithm SQUIGGLE7 correctly tipped 154 games at an accuracy of 72.30%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1

Geelong (83) lost to Essendon (104) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Essendon by 21)
Richmond (49) lost to Collingwood (132) at Princes Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 83)
Hawthorn (66) lost to Western Bulldogs (77) at York Park (TAS) [Western Bulldogs by 11)
Brisbane Lions (94) lost to Adelaide (97) at Springfield Central Stadium (QLD) [Adelaide by 3)
Greater Western Sydney (66) lost to Carlton (124) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Carlton by 58)
Gold Coast (63) lost to Sydney (84) at Carrara (QLD) [Sydney by 21)
St Kilda (49) lost to Port Adelaide (93) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 44)
West Coast (71) defeated North Melbourne (69) at Hands Oval (WA) [West Coast by 2)
Fremantle (109) defeated Melbourne (90) at Rushton Park (WA) [Fremantle by 19)

Round 0

Greater Western Sydney (104) defeated Collingwood (52) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 52) Collingwood by 4
Sydney (76) lost to Hawthorn (96) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Hawthorn by 20) Hawthorn by 9

Round 1

Adelaide (135) defeated St Kilda (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 63) Adelaide by 34
Collingwood (136) defeated Port Adelaide (45) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 91) Collingwood by 4
Geelong (147) defeated Fremantle (69) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 78) Geelong by 8
Hawthorn (111) defeated Essendon (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 26) Hawthorn by 31
Melbourne (74) lost to Greater Western Sydney (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 3) Melbourne by 14
Richmond (82) defeated Carlton (69) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 13) Carlton by 52
Sydney (82) lost to Brisbane Lions (86) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 4) Brisbane Lions by 13
West Coast (49) lost to Gold Coast (136) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Gold Coast by 87) Gold Coast by 7
Western Bulldogs (113) defeated North Melbourne (97) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 16) Western Bulldogs by 19

Round 2

Brisbane Lions (94) defeated West Coast (75) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 19) Brisbane Lions by 53
Carlton (60) lost to Hawthorn (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 20) Hawthorn by 12
Essendon (100) lost to Adelaide (161) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 61) Adelaide by 4
Fremantle (65) lost to Sydney (68) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 3) Fremantle by 11
North Melbourne (125) defeated Melbourne (66) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 59) Melbourne by 15
Port Adelaide (140) defeated Richmond (68) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 72) Port Adelaide by 34
St Kilda (98) defeated Geelong (91) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 7) Geelong by 14
Western Bulldogs (70) lost to Collingwood (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 6) Collingwood by 12

Round 3

Adelaide (114) defeated North Melbourne (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 36) Adelaide by 32
Brisbane Lions (70) defeated Geelong (61) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 9) Brisbane Lions by 1
Carlton (75) lost to Western Bulldogs (83) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 8) Western Bulldogs by 8
Essendon (72) defeated Port Adelaide (60) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 12) Essendon by 5
Hawthorn (76) defeated Greater Western Sydney (64) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 12) Hawthorn by 1
Melbourne (62) lost to Gold Coast (120) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Gold Coast by 58) Gold Coast by 8
St Kilda (135) defeated Richmond (53) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 82) St Kilda by 23
West Coast (68) lost to Fremantle (106) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 38) Fremantle by 20

Round 4

Collingwood (63) defeated Carlton (46) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 17) Collingwood by 24
Fremantle (97) defeated Western Bulldogs (81) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 16) Fremantle by 3
Geelong (85) defeated Melbourne (46) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 39) Geelong by 26
Gold Coast (91) defeated Adelaide (90) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 1) Gold Coast by 9
Greater Western Sydney (132) defeated West Coast (51) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 81) Greater Western Sydney by 42
North Melbourne (52) lost to Sydney (117) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 65) Sydney by 8
Port Adelaide (72) lost to St Kilda (89) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 17) Port Adelaide by 6
Richmond (90) lost to Brisbane Lions (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 28) Brisbane Lions by 44

Round 5

Adelaide (100) lost to Geelong (119) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 19) Adelaide by 4
Carlton (121) defeated West Coast (50) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Carlton by 71) Carlton by 32
Collingwood (109) defeated Sydney (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 31) Sydney by 3
Melbourne (57) lost to Essendon (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 39) Essendon by 3
North Melbourne (89) lost to Gold Coast (141) at Barossa Park (SA) [Gold Coast by 52) Gold Coast by 29
Port Adelaide (121) defeated Hawthorn (91) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 30) Hawthorn by 14
Richmond (47) lost to Fremantle (108) at Barossa Park (SA) [Fremantle by 61) Fremantle by 34
St Kilda (82) lost to Greater Western Sydney (110) at Norwood Oval (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 28) St Kilda by 6
Western Bulldogs (97) lost to Brisbane Lions (118) at Norwood Oval (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 21) Brisbane Lions by 3

Round 6

Adelaide (52) defeated Greater Western Sydney (34) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 18) Adelaide by 11
Brisbane Lions (53) lost to Collingwood (105) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 52) Collingwood by 9
Geelong (86) defeated Hawthorn (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 7) Geelong by 6
Melbourne (107) defeated Fremantle (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 10) Fremantle by 12
North Melbourne (71) lost to Carlton (153) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 82) Carlton by 11
Richmond (80) defeated Gold Coast (69) at Docklands (VIC) [Richmond by 11) Gold Coast by 43
Sydney (77) lost to Port Adelaide (85) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Port Adelaide by 8) Sydney by 16
West Coast (75) lost to Essendon (77) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Essendon by 2) Essendon by 19
Western Bulldogs (127) defeated St Kilda (56) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 71) Western Bulldogs by 13

Round 7

Carlton (94) defeated Geelong (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 18) Geelong by 6
Collingwood (107) defeated Essendon (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 41) Collingwood by 26
Fremantle (85) defeated Adelaide (67) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 18) Adelaide by 2
Gold Coast (117) defeated Sydney (79) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 38) Gold Coast by 9
Greater Western Sydney (81) lost to Western Bulldogs (113) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 6
Hawthorn (124) defeated West Coast (74) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 50) Hawthorn by 46
Melbourne (83) defeated Richmond (63) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 20) Melbourne by 27
Port Adelaide (97) defeated North Melbourne (88) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 9) Port Adelaide by 31
St Kilda (73) lost to Brisbane Lions (118) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 45) Brisbane Lions by 9

Round 8

Adelaide (110) defeated Carlton (50) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 60) Adelaide by 10
Brisbane Lions (66) defeated Gold Coast (49) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 17) Gold Coast by 2
Collingwood (87) lost to Geelong (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 3) Collingwood by 17
Essendon (65) defeated North Melbourne (62) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 3) Essendon by 16
Hawthorn (109) defeated Richmond (44) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 65) Hawthorn by 34
St Kilda (94) defeated Fremantle (33) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 61) Fremantle by 15
Sydney (87) defeated Greater Western Sydney (73) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 14) Sydney by 8
West Coast (76) lost to Melbourne (108) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Melbourne by 32) Melbourne by 8
Western Bulldogs (131) defeated Port Adelaide (41) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 90) Western Bulldogs by 31

Round 9

Essendon (71) defeated Sydney (63) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 8) Sydney by 8
Fremantle (83) lost to Collingwood (97) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Collingwood by 14) Collingwood by 13
Geelong (101) lost to Greater Western Sydney (105) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Greater Western Sydney by 4) Geelong by 23
Gold Coast (106) defeated Western Bulldogs (96) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 10) Western Bulldogs by 0
Melbourne (56) lost to Hawthorn (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 35) Hawthorn by 20
North Melbourne (71) drew with Brisbane Lions (71) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [DRAW by 0) Brisbane Lions by 28
Port Adelaide (84) lost to Adelaide (89) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 5) Adelaide by 21
Richmond (81) defeated West Coast (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 2) Richmond by 11
St Kilda (62) lost to Carlton (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 15) St Kilda by 1

Round 10

Brisbane Lions (88) lost to Melbourne (99) at Gabba (QLD) [Melbourne by 11) Brisbane Lions by 22
Collingwood (78) defeated Adelaide (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 10) Collingwood by 20
Gold Coast (104) defeated Hawthorn (96) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 8) Gold Coast by 5
Greater Western Sydney (61) lost to Fremantle (95) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Fremantle by 34) Greater Western Sydney by 16
Port Adelaide (39) lost to Geelong (115) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 76) Geelong by 15
Richmond (74) lost to North Melbourne (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 4) North Melbourne by 17
Sydney (78) defeated Carlton (62) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 16) Sydney by 12
West Coast (108) defeated St Kilda (80) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 28) St Kilda by 20
Western Bulldogs (127) defeated Essendon (36) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 91) Western Bulldogs by 24

Round 11

Adelaide (128) defeated West Coast (62) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 66) Adelaide by 52
Carlton (82) lost to Greater Western Sydney (110) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 28) Carlton by 17
Essendon (81) defeated Richmond (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 23) Essendon by 27
Fremantle (100) defeated Port Adelaide (51) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 49) Fremantle by 23
Geelong (127) defeated Western Bulldogs (113) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 14) Geelong by 1
Hawthorn (60) lost to Brisbane Lions (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 33) Hawthorn by 15
Melbourne (131) defeated Sydney (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 53) Sydney by 8
North Melbourne (63) lost to Collingwood (108) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 45) Collingwood by 26
St Kilda (61) lost to Gold Coast (80) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 19) Gold Coast by 11

Round 12

Brisbane Lions (90) defeated Essendon (72) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 18) Brisbane Lions by 34
Collingwood (107) defeated Hawthorn (56) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 51) Collingwood by 22
Gold Coast (64) lost to Fremantle (75) at Carrara (QLD) [Fremantle by 11) Gold Coast by 13
Greater Western Sydney (80) defeated Richmond (77) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 3) Greater Western Sydney by 44
Melbourne (63) lost to St Kilda (91) at Traeger Park (NT) [St Kilda by 28) Melbourne by 4
Sydney (41) lost to Adelaide (131) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Adelaide by 90) Adelaide by 3
West Coast (73) lost to Geelong (116) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Geelong by 43) Geelong by 46

Round 13

Adelaide (68) defeated Brisbane Lions (63) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 5) Adelaide by 19
Carlton (78) defeated Essendon (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 8) Carlton by 17
Geelong (61) defeated Gold Coast (37) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 24) Geelong by 23
Greater Western Sydney (50) lost to Port Adelaide (66) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Port Adelaide by 16) Greater Western Sydney by 13
Melbourne (71) lost to Collingwood (72) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 1) Collingwood by 18
North Melbourne (62) defeated West Coast (52) at Hands Oval (WA) [North Melbourne by 10) North Melbourne by 5
Richmond (36) lost to Sydney (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 44) Sydney by 18
Western Bulldogs (59) lost to Hawthorn (81) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 22) Western Bulldogs by 31

Round 14

Brisbane Lions (96) lost to Greater Western Sydney (107) at Gabba (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 11) Brisbane Lions by 25
Essendon (56) lost to Geelong (151) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 95) Geelong by 36
Hawthorn (47) defeated Adelaide (44) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 3) Adelaide by 3
North Melbourne (67) lost to Fremantle (73) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 6) Fremantle by 30
Port Adelaide (93) defeated Melbourne (68) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 25) Port Adelaide by 0
St Kilda (60) lost to Western Bulldogs (132) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 72) Western Bulldogs by 23
West Coast (52) lost to Carlton (86) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Carlton by 34) Carlton by 17

Round 15

Carlton (73) lost to North Melbourne (84) at M.C.G. (VIC) [North Melbourne by 11) Carlton by 23
Collingwood (108) defeated St Kilda (74) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 34) Collingwood by 27
Fremantle (104) defeated Essendon (63) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 41) Fremantle by 25
Geelong (51) lost to Brisbane Lions (92) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Brisbane Lions by 41) Geelong by 27
Greater Western Sydney (106) defeated Gold Coast (99) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 7) Gold Coast by 9
Port Adelaide (52) lost to Sydney (71) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Sydney by 19) Sydney by 5
Western Bulldogs (135) defeated Richmond (56) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 79) Western Bulldogs by 57

Round 16

Collingwood (88) defeated West Coast (59) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 29) Collingwood by 56
Fremantle (81) defeated St Kilda (69) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 12) Fremantle by 19
Gold Coast (104) defeated Melbourne (85) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 19) Gold Coast by 21
Hawthorn (150) defeated North Melbourne (65) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 85) Hawthorn by 30
Port Adelaide (110) defeated Carlton (60) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 50) Port Adelaide by 3
Richmond (54) lost to Adelaide (122) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Adelaide by 68) Adelaide by 33
Sydney (96) lost to Western Bulldogs (105) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 9) Western Bulldogs by 12

Round 17

Adelaide (90) defeated Melbourne (77) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 13) Adelaide by 21
Brisbane Lions (120) defeated Port Adelaide (92) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 28) Brisbane Lions by 25
Carlton (59) lost to Collingwood (115) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 56) Collingwood by 22
Essendon (74) lost to Gold Coast (115) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 41) Gold Coast by 10
Geelong (124) defeated Richmond (52) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 72) Geelong by 57
North Melbourne (85) lost to Western Bulldogs (134) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 49) Western Bulldogs by 50
St Kilda (74) lost to Hawthorn (94) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 20) Hawthorn by 15
Sydney (94) defeated Fremantle (83) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 11) Sydney by 6
West Coast (52) lost to Greater Western Sydney (111) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Greater Western Sydney by 59) Greater Western Sydney by 15

Round 18

Carlton (66) lost to Brisbane Lions (103) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 37) Brisbane Lions by 16
Fremantle (77) defeated Hawthorn (64) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 13) Fremantle by 1
Gold Coast (69) defeated Collingwood (63) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 6) Gold Coast by 1
Greater Western Sydney (111) defeated Geelong (85) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 26) Geelong by 2
Melbourne (119) defeated North Melbourne (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 36) Melbourne by 25
Port Adelaide (87) defeated West Coast (61) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 26) Port Adelaide by 36
Richmond (46) defeated Essendon (37) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 9) Essendon by 9
St Kilda (87) lost to Sydney (92) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 5) Sydney by 2
Western Bulldogs (98) lost to Adelaide (109) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 11) Western Bulldogs by 18

Round 19

Adelaide (107) defeated Gold Coast (46) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 61) Adelaide by 23
Brisbane Lions (86) defeated Western Bulldogs (76) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 10) Western Bulldogs by 4
Carlton (78) defeated Melbourne (70) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 8) Melbourne by 5
Collingwood (78) lost to Fremantle (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 1) Collingwood by 22
Essendon (56) lost to Greater Western Sydney (104) at Docklands (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 48) Greater Western Sydney by 14
Geelong (113) defeated St Kilda (82) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 31) Geelong by 33
Hawthorn (87) defeated Port Adelaide (49) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 38) Hawthorn by 22
Sydney (84) defeated North Melbourne (53) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 31) Sydney by 31
West Coast (56) lost to Richmond (105) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Richmond by 49) West Coast by 15

Round 20

Adelaide (133) defeated Port Adelaide (35) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 98) Adelaide by 20
Essendon (50) lost to Western Bulldogs (143) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 93) Western Bulldogs by 33
Fremantle (126) defeated West Coast (77) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 49) Fremantle by 37
Gold Coast (130) defeated Brisbane Lions (64) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 66) Brisbane Lions by 10
Greater Western Sydney (102) defeated Sydney (58) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 44) Greater Western Sydney by 12
Hawthorn (85) defeated Carlton (61) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 24) Hawthorn by 13
North Melbourne (49) lost to Geelong (150) at Docklands (VIC) [Geelong by 101) Geelong by 32
Richmond (57) lost to Collingwood (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 36) Collingwood by 45
St Kilda (96) defeated Melbourne (90) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 6) Melbourne by 5

Round 21

Adelaide (101) defeated Hawthorn (87) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 14) Adelaide by 18
Collingwood (65) lost to Brisbane Lions (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 27) Collingwood by 20
Fremantle (94) defeated Carlton (67) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 27) Fremantle by 24
Geelong (153) defeated Port Adelaide (65) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 88) Geelong by 54
Gold Coast (107) defeated Richmond (23) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 84) Gold Coast by 48
Melbourne (139) defeated West Coast (56) at Docklands (VIC) [Melbourne by 83) Melbourne by 49
St Kilda (78) defeated North Melbourne (69) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 9) St Kilda by 19
Sydney (68) defeated Essendon (54) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 14) Sydney by 25
Western Bulldogs (132) defeated Greater Western Sydney (44) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 88) Western Bulldogs by 29

Round 22

Brisbane Lions (90) lost to Sydney (92) at Gabba (QLD) [Sydney by 2) Brisbane Lions by 14
Carlton (74) lost to Gold Coast (93) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 19) Gold Coast by 12
Geelong (109) defeated Essendon (65) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 44) Geelong by 48
Greater Western Sydney (133) defeated North Melbourne (79) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 54) Greater Western Sydney by 31
Hawthorn (110) defeated Collingwood (46) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 64) Collingwood by 6
Melbourne (99) lost to Western Bulldogs (105) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 6) Western Bulldogs by 23
Port Adelaide (86) lost to Fremantle (92) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Fremantle by 6) Port Adelaide by 1
Richmond (52) lost to St Kilda (56) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 4) St Kilda by 13
West Coast (78) lost to Adelaide (87) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Adelaide by 9) Adelaide by 51

Round 23

Adelaide (59) defeated Collingwood (56) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 3) Adelaide by 25
Carlton (118) defeated Port Adelaide (64) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 54) Carlton by 20
Essendon (75) lost to St Kilda (77) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 2) St Kilda by 17
Fremantle (44) lost to Brisbane Lions (101) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Brisbane Lions by 57) Brisbane Lions by 6
Gold Coast (76) lost to Greater Western Sydney (111) at Carrara (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 35) Gold Coast by 21
Hawthorn (92) defeated Melbourne (56) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 36) Hawthorn by 14
North Melbourne (135) defeated Richmond (87) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [North Melbourne by 48) North Melbourne by 10
Sydney (68) lost to Geelong (111) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Geelong by 43) Geelong by 21
Western Bulldogs (126) defeated West Coast (32) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 94) Western Bulldogs by 66

Round 24

Brisbane Lions (89) defeated Hawthorn (79) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 10) Brisbane Lions by 7
Collingwood (82) defeated Melbourne (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 6) Collingwood by 18
Essendon (56) lost to Carlton (90) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 34) Carlton by 9
Gold Coast (153) defeated Essendon (58) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 95) Gold Coast by 42
Greater Western Sydney (104) defeated St Kilda (93) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 11) Greater Western Sydney by 22
North Melbourne (100) lost to Adelaide (113) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 13) Adelaide by 30
Port Adelaide (71) defeated Gold Coast (67) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 4) Gold Coast by 26
Richmond (64) lost to Geelong (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 39) Geelong by 45
West Coast (51) lost to Sydney (118) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 67) Sydney by 32
Western Bulldogs (97) lost to Fremantle (112) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 15) Western Bulldogs by 28

Qualifying Final

Adelaide (55) lost to Collingwood (79) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 24) Adelaide by 19
Fremantle (79) lost to Gold Coast (80) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Gold Coast by 1) Gold Coast by 3
Geelong (112) defeated Brisbane Lions (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 38) Brisbane Lions by 1
Greater Western Sydney (88) lost to Hawthorn (107) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Hawthorn by 19) Greater Western Sydney by 2

Semi-Final

Adelaide (67) lost to Hawthorn (101) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Hawthorn by 34) Adelaide by 7
Brisbane Lions (100) defeated Gold Coast (47) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 53) Brisbane Lions by 5

Preliminary Final

Grand Final

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

FINALS: WEEK 3

Collingwood 77 - 71 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)
Win likelihood: 57.4% - 42.6%RealProbs: 57.412845 - 42.587155RealScores: 76.934812 - 71.327629

Geelong Geelong 83 - 82 Hawthorn
M.C.G. (VIC)
Win likelihood: 52.5% - 47.5%RealProbs: 52.474721 - 47.525279RealScores: 83.304172 - 82.560969

2025 AFL GRAND FINAL

Geelong Geelong 81 - 76 Collingwood
M.C.G. (VIC)
Win likelihood: 56.4% - 43.6%RealProbs: 56.412719 - 43.587281RealScores: 80.957895 - 76.416627

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE7

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

		Flagpole Height
1	Geelong	0.0
2	Hawthorn	0.0
3	Brisbane Lions	0.0
4	Western Bulldogs	0.0
5	Collingwood	0.0
6	Gold Coast	0.0
7	Adelaide	0.0
8	Greater Western Sydney	0.0
9	Fremantle	0.0
10	Sydney	0.0
11	Melbourne	0.0
12	Carlton	0.0
13	St Kilda	0.0
14	Port Adelaide	0.0
15	North Melbourne	0.0
16	Essendon	0.0
17	Richmond	0.0
18	West Coast	0.0

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Geelong	67.8	64.3	66.1
2	Hawthorn	62.2	68.9	65.6
3	Brisbane Lions	62.5	66.7	64.6
4	Western Bulldogs	66.3	62.1	64.2
5	Collingwood	57.3	70.6	64.0
6	Gold Coast	57.8	62.4	60.1
7	Adelaide	55.4	63.7	59.6
8	Greater Western Sydney	59.3	57.2	58.3
9	Fremantle	53.9	58.6	56.2
10	Sydney	53.2	59.2	56.2
11	Melbourne	56.4	55.2	55.8
12	Carlton	50.4	58.7	54.6
13	St Kilda	50.8	55.8	53.3
14	Port Adelaide	49.1	53.0	51.1
15	North Melbourne	50.7	48.1	49.4
16	Essendon	43.8	51.0	47.4
17	Richmond	41.9	51.3	46.6
18	West Coast	40.6	45.5	43.0

MOST LIKELY GRAND FINALS

Hawthorn def Brisbane Lions	5.8%
Brisbane Lions def Hawthorn	4.5%
Hawthorn def Geelong	3.7%
Hawthorn def Western Bulldogs	3.3%
Brisbane Lions def Geelong	3.3%
Hawthorn def Fremantle	3.2%
Brisbane Lions def Fremantle	3.0%
Brisbane Lions def Western Bulldogs	2.8%
Geelong def Brisbane Lions	2.5%
Geelong def Hawthorn	2.4%
Western Bulldogs def Brisbane Lions	2.2%
Western Bulldogs def Hawthorn	2.1%
Brisbane Lions def Adelaide	1.9%
Hawthorn def Adelaide	1.8%
Fremantle def Brisbane Lions	1.7%
Geelong def Fremantle	1.6%
Brisbane Lions def Port Adelaide	1.5%
Geelong def Western Bulldogs	1.5%
Hawthorn def Collingwood	1.4%
Fremantle def Hawthorn	1.4%

EDIT SQUIGGLE

Oooh past

Oooh future

TODO:

(1) Allow for updating of FLAGPOLE

(2) Allow for updating of TOWER

(3) Allow for updating of TIPS

(4) Allow for modification of future games

(5) Allow for modification of past games

HOME TEAM:

vs

Cancel Add Another Game