Squiggle 2024

INFO

What Squiggles are • How to play through a season • Prediction • FAQ • The Model • Flagpole

What Squiggles are

Squiggles are visualizations of AFL team performances, charting attack and defence over the course of a season.

Teams ⇡ high on the chart kick big scores. Teams on the ⇢ right keep their opposition to low scores. Teams in the ↗ upper-right do both. Teams in the ↙ lower-left do neither.

Squiggles are handy because:

They visualize different game styles. For example, Ross Lyon teams at their peak lurk on the right side of the chart about halfway up, since they keep their opposition to low scores without scoring highly themselves.
They provide interesting season replays, showing how teams rose or fell at different times of the year.
They minimize fixture bias by accounting for the difficulty of opponents (and venue).
They predict how the season will play out based on current likelihoods.

Squiggle is roughly as accurate as tipping the favourite every game. (Which is hard to beat!) Over a season, an informed, observant human should be able to beat it, but not by much. It will beat an average human tipper. You can review its accuracy by visiting the TIPS section of any year.

How to play through a season

To watch the evolution of a past season, use the top controls:

Rewind to the start of the season

Previous Round

Next Round

Reload

You can also:

Click a team name in the legend at the top to hide/show it.
Click a team flag to remove every other team.

For example, you might like to rewind, click Hawthorn's flag to remove all other teams, click Geelong's name in the legend to add it back in, then repeatedly step through the season to watch their dance of death.

To zoom in on an area, drag a box around it.

Prediction

Weekly Tips

Click TIPS at the top of the page. If a team beats the tipped scoreline—i.e. wins by more than predicted, loses by less than predicted, or records an upset win—it will generally move in a positive direction on the chart (i.e. more up-and-right than down-and-left), while if its result is worse, it will generally move in a negative direction.

You can view tips for previous rounds via the "History" link on the Tips page.

Season Predictor

This is how the ladder will look if Squiggle has correctly rated every team and nobody gets better or worse.

For the home & away season, it uses a probabilistic ladder, not a simple tally of tips. Both teams are awarded a win probability from each game, so that if Squiggle thinks Hawthorn is 68% likely to beat Collingwood, it will award the Hawks 0.68 wins and the Pies 0.32 wins, increasing both team's tally of "probable wins" by less than 1.

This is because if a team plays 10 games with 60% likelihood of winning each game, we should expect them to win about 6/10—not, as we would get if we tipped each game and tallied up the tips, 10/10. We know that upsets will happen; we just don't know when. A probabilitistic ladder accounts for the likelihood that teams will sometimes unexpectedly win or lose, even though we doesn't know when.

This can look like a bug in the predictor, if you see a team tipped to win a match that doesn't seem to be credited. For example, a team might be on "15 (14.7)" wins, which means 14.7 "probable wins" rounded off to 15. (Rounding occurs so that teams can be secondarily ranked by their percentage.) And then that team is tipped to win the following week, but it remains on 15 wins, now "15 (15.3)". What has happened is the number of probable wins hasn't risen by enough to be rounded to a higher number. It has earned 0.6 more probable wins, but this still rounds off to 15. The predictor is saying it's still most likely this team will be on 15 wins, after accounting for the likelihood that some of its tips will be wrong.

Finals matches are predicted using simple tips. However, this isn't a very reliable way of doing it, and not Squiggle's official Premier tip. For this, please see Flagpole.

Starting the season: Team starting positions are heavily influenced by their late-season performances the previous year, and the off-season is completely ignored. There is no adjustment made for recovery from injuries, or players gained or lost via the draft or trade table, or anything else. For example, Collingwood started 2015 rated very low due to their injury-plagued end to 2014, while Adelaide and West Coast started in good positions after solid late-2014 performances.

Interactive Season Predictor

Drag teams around the chart and make Squiggle predict the rest of the season based on the new positions! It's the best of both worlds: your footy insight plus Squiggle's ability to sensibly model a season.

Reposition teams to your heart's content, open up the Predictor and click RECALCULATE.

This also provides a shareable link to the generated squiggle, so you can show off your work to other people.

FAQ

What causes a team to move?

Teams move when they do better or worse than Squiggle expected.

The most important factor is the final scoreline. When a team scores more than Squiggle expected, they move ⇡ up; when they score less, they move move ⇣ down; when they hold their opposition to a lower score, they move ⇢; right; and when they allow their opposition to score more, they move ⇠ left.

Of course, usually two of these things happen at once, so they move on a diagonal:

↗ Scored more than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↘ Scored less than predicted, held opponent to less than predicted

↙ Scored less than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

↖ Scored more than predicted, opponent scored more than predicted

How far a team moves depends on how different the result was from Squiggle's prediction. If the result was close to expectation, a team may barely budge. But an unexpected thrashing will cause a lot of movement.

Do teams get more movement against easy opposition?

No, because Squiggle expects better performances against weaker opponents, and to move to a better position, the team has to beat this expectation.

For the same reason, Squiggle isn't affected by fixture bias.

Can a team lose and still move into a better squiggle position?

Yes! Squiggle believes in honourable losses and shameful victories. If a team is expected to win by 10 goals but only prevails by 5, it will slide.

What factors are considered?

A team's rating is modified after each game by looking at:

Scores, obviously.
Scoring Shots: a team is rated more highly if they record more scoring shots.
Venue: teams are expected to perform better at venues with which they are more familiar.
Team Selections: teams are expected to perform better when they select more highly-rated players.
Stage of Season: team ratings are more fluid in the early part of each season.
Past Games: each new game is combined with past results.

Can a team beat the tipped result and still fall back on the chart?

Yes! Two factors can cause unusual chart movement:

Scoring Shots: where one team is much more accurate than the other. For example, in the opening match of 2018, Richmond won 17.19 (121) to Carlton 15.5 (95). Squiggle tipped a 29-point win, so normally the Tigers would slightly regress after winning by only 26 points. However, after factoring in the scoring shot disparity, Richmond's performance was rated more highly, and the Tigers moved positively on the chart.
Team Selections: where a team has significant ins/outs. For example, in the second match of 2018, Essendon defeated Adelaide by 12 points. This was very similar to Squiggle's expectation of a 7-point Essendon win, so normally neither team would move much. However, Adelaide selected a much weaker team than their previous game (the 2017 Grand Final); without this, Squiggle would have tipped Adelaide by 9 points. As a result, Essendon received less positive movement than they would have for the same scoreline against a normal-strength Adelaide. The Crows also saw negative movement, since the result was worse than what would have been expected from them given their previous rating.

How is home ground advantage determined?

As described in the Model section, home ground advantage in Squiggle 2.0 is generated from ground familiarity: How often the teams have played at the same ground and in the same state over the preceding 4 years (including the current season).

What are Squiggle's weaknesses?

Some quirks of Squiggle, which you may decide to compensate for as an intelligent human, include:

Squiggle doesn't consider a team's level of motivation, which seems to be fairly significant. Squiggle assumes all teams are trying equally hard at all times.
Squiggle doesn't consider the impact of weather. It may reward a team for having a good defence when in reality what was making it hard to score was torrential rain. This doesn't seem to happen often enough to throw anything too far out, but does occur from time to time.
Squiggle doesn't place any special value on wins. That is, it doesn't see much difference between a 1-point victory and a 1-point loss. It may thus underestimate a team that does "just enough," or is especially good at holding on in tight contests. Likewise, it may overestimate a team that regularly gets itself into winning positions against good teams but lacks the ability to close the games out.
Squiggle gets excited about very low-scoring games. The maths mean that if a team is expected to keep its opposition to 80 points, and it actually keeps them to 40, this is considered twice as good, while keeping them to 20 points is considered four times as good, and keeping them to 10 points is eight times as good. Those are some big multipliers: to be 8 times better than a predicted 80 points in terms of Attack, a team would need to score 640 points (80 x 8), which is a lot more than the all-time AFL record. This means it's significantly easier for a team to move rapidly rightwards on a squiggle than upwards.
The underlying model generates some inflation over the course of a season, which causes Squiggle to rate teams about 5-10% higher by the end of the year compared to the start. This seems useful for predictive purposes, as it allows for more movement leading into finals. However, it means that a team that doesn't actually change strength at all will be shown to slightly improve its chart position over the course of the season.

Why does the model use those values?

All the numbers used by Squiggle are that way because they worked best (i.e. made the most accurate predictions) when every possible combination was tested with a simulator replaying the last few decades.

How are the year's starting values calculated?

2015 starting positions are very similar to their end 2014 positions—the only difference is that 2013 data is no longer considered, so teams are modeled from the start of 2014 with each beginning on 50 ATTACK and 50 DEFENCE.

This means late-season 2014 results weigh quite heavily. For example, Collingwood had an injury-plagued end to 2014, and so is rated very low. Adelaide and West Coast, by contrast, finished the year with several solid performances, and so begin the year higher than you might expect.

What's with those crazy charts for the 1900s!?

Football scores were a lot lower a century ago, especially in the very early years, when single-digit scorelines abounded. Squiggle is calibrated for modern football, and thinks a game in which one team is held to a single goal (or no goals!) signifies an unbelievably good defensive effort. This causes teams to go shooting off to the right quite often in charts from the 1890s, 1900s and 1910s. So it's not a particularly good visualization of the strength of any particular team in that era. But it is interesting in terms of how different the whole league looks: how low and flat it is compared to today.

Similary, it can be interesting to look at where the mass of teams tends to sit in different decades; for example, how attacking the late 1980s was, with plenty of teams sitting high & centre/left compared to today.

The Model

The foundation of the Squiggle model is the OFFDEF engine, which rates teams separately in terms of attack and defense. Each team is initially assigned a starting value of 50 for each.

Scores are predicted for each match using the formula:

PREDICTED SCORE = 85 * TEAM ATTACK ÷ OPPOSITION DEFENCE

For example, in a match between a team with ATTACK 56 and an opposition with DEFENCE 50, the team is predicted to score: 85 * 56 ÷ 50 = 95 points.

Predicted scores are compared to the actual scores, and ATTACK and DEFENCE adjusted accordingly. For example, if a team scored more highly than predicted, its ATTACK score needs to be increased, since Squiggle underrated it. Likewise, the opposition's DEFENCE score should decrease, since they failed to restrict the team as well as predicted. This is done by calculating what these scores would have to have been to predict the result perfectly, then constructing a weighted average of this along with all other results.

At the start of a season, team starting points are calculated by doing the above for the previous season. For example, to calculate starting points for 2014, each team is assigned 50 to ATTACK and DEFENCE, then the 2013 season is played through.

The units are completely arbitrary, and entirely due to the choice of 50 as a starting value for each team's ATTACK and DEFENCE. They have no meaning except when comparing teams to each other.

Several other filters and algorithms are used to manipulate scores produced by the OFFDEF engine, including venue (for home ground advantage), round number, team selections, and scoring shots.

Home Ground Advantage

Teams are compared based on the number of times they've played at the venue and in the same state.

Tip Probability

When determining "probable wins" in the Season Predictor, an algorithm is used that reflects the actual accuracy of Squiggle tips vs real-life results. Three factors affect the likelihood of a tip being correct:

Margin: The greater the predicted margin, the more likely the tip is to be correct.
Round Number: Games that occur later in the season are a little more likely to be tipped correctly.
Weeks Until Game: Games that are weeks or months in the future are a little less likely to be tipped correctly.

Model Versions

Squiggle v1 used the algorithm ISTATE-91:12, in which 12 points of Home Ground Advantage is awarded to the home team in interstate games only, and each new game forms 9% of the team's new rating (with previous games forming 91%). Follow this link for Squiggles generated under the v1 algorithm.

Squiggle 2.0 made several changes in 2018:

Greater sensitivity in early rounds to better captures the sometimes substantial form changes that occur over an off-season.
Factor in goalkicking accuracy, by discounting scores that resulted from unusually high accuracy (i.e. kicking many more goals than behinds), and padding scores that resulted from unusually low accuracy, since these tend to be non-reproducible.
Generate home ground advantage from a ground familiarity algorithm.

Squiggle4 added Ins/Out awareness in mid-2018, so it can adjust predictions based on team selection.

Squiggle5 moved to a more crowd-based model of home ground advantage in 2020.

To compare Squiggle's performance to other computer models, see the Squiggle Models Leaderboard.

Flagpole

Flagpole is currently a combined strength rating of each team, downgraded by its likelihood of missing finals.

For example, if two teams are currently have the same combined OFFENCE and DEFENCE, but one is certain of making finals while the other has a 25% chance of missing, the latter's will Flagpole will be 75% of the height of the former.

Generated: Sun Aug 25 21:30:29 2024 (R28)

Tower of Power shows how likely teams are (or were) to finish the Home & Away season in various ladder positions, according to squiggle simulations.

At the start of a season, with many games remaining and uncertainty about the strength of each team, there are long strips, as teams could plausibly finish in many different places. Later, they flatten out, as the range of likely finishes shrinks.

Use the top player controls to watch changes throughout a season:

Some creative license is taken for the purposes of visual appeal, which is why final ladder positions appear somewhat diagonal.

* If the round number is marked with an asterisk, the Tower is generated from fewer simulations in order to provide a faster result.

FINALS CHANCES

		Minor Premier	Top 4	Top 8	Bottom 4	Spoon

MODE LADDER

			Likelihood	If not, then...

A Mode Ladder may be useful in the last round or two of a season, since it focuses on the most likely exact finishing position for teams, rather than averaging a range of possibilities. For example, after Round 22, 2017 with one round to go, Richmond were highly likely to finish either 3rd or 6th. Normally this would be averaged out to a prediction of about 4th -- even though the Tigers couldn't possibly finish there. The Mode Ladder avoids this problem.

A Mode Ladder is less useful than other forecasting methods until very late in the season, since until then there are too many possible final ladder combinations.

2024 ROUND 28 TIPS

Sydney Sydney 80 - 86 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)
HGA: Sydney +0.9 pts
Ins/Outs: Sydney +3.9 pts

Algorithm: SQUIGGLE7
Tips after Round 27: 138

History...

In 2024, algorithm SQUIGGLE7 correctly tipped 139 games at an accuracy of 64.35%.

Draws are counted as correct tips. Historically, Squiggle employed the ISTATE-91:12 algorithm from 2013-2017, the SQUIGGLE2 algorithm for the first 12 rounds of 2018, and SQUIGGLE4 thereafter. To view historical tips from Squiggle (and other models) irrespective of the algorithm, see the Squiggle API or the models leaderboard.

Round 0.1

Collingwood (76) defeated Richmond (46) at Princes Park (VIC) [Collingwood by 30)
Carlton (63) lost to Melbourne (101) at Princes Park (VIC) [Melbourne by 38)
Greater Western Sydney (105) defeated Gold Coast (61) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 44)
Sydney (56) lost to Brisbane Lions (81) at Blacktown (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 25)
Geelong (83) defeated Essendon (71) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 12)
Port Adelaide (92) defeated Fremantle (53) at Alberton Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 39)
Adelaide (117) defeated West Coast (50) at John Cain Arena (VIC) [Adelaide by 67)
Hawthorn (62) lost to Western Bulldogs (119) at York Park (TAS) [Western Bulldogs by 57)
St Kilda (84) defeated North Melbourne (65) at Moorabbin Oval (VIC) [St Kilda by 19)

Round 0

Brisbane Lions (85) lost to Carlton (86) at Gabba (QLD) [Carlton by 1) Brisbane Lions by 13
Gold Coast (99) defeated Richmond (60) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 39) Gold Coast by 6
Greater Western Sydney (114) defeated Collingwood (82) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 32) Greater Western Sydney by 9
Sydney (86) defeated Melbourne (64) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 22) Melbourne by 2

Round 1

Carlton (86) defeated Richmond (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 5) Carlton by 1
Collingwood (69) lost to Sydney (102) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 33) Collingwood by 8
Essendon (107) defeated Hawthorn (83) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 24) Essendon by 0
Fremantle (93) defeated Brisbane Lions (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 23) Brisbane Lions by 9
Geelong (76) defeated St Kilda (68) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 8) Geelong by 20
Gold Coast (60) defeated Adelaide (54) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 6) Adelaide by 0
Greater Western Sydney (121) defeated North Melbourne (82) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 39) Greater Western Sydney by 51
Melbourne (109) defeated Western Bulldogs (64) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 45) Melbourne by 15
Port Adelaide (120) defeated West Coast (70) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 50) Port Adelaide by 52

Round 2

Adelaide (77) lost to Geelong (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 19) Adelaide by 18
Hawthorn (38) lost to Melbourne (93) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 55) Melbourne by 21
North Melbourne (76) lost to Fremantle (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 26) Fremantle by 10
Richmond (92) lost to Port Adelaide (122) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 30) Port Adelaide by 15
St Kilda (94) defeated Collingwood (79) at M.C.G. (VIC) [St Kilda by 15) Collingwood by 1
Sydney (131) defeated Essendon (101) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 30) Sydney by 26
West Coast (43) lost to Greater Western Sydney (108) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Greater Western Sydney by 65) Greater Western Sydney by 42
Western Bulldogs (115) defeated Gold Coast (67) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 48) Western Bulldogs by 8

Round 3

Brisbane Lions (72) lost to Collingwood (92) at Gabba (QLD) [Collingwood by 20) Brisbane Lions by 18
Essendon (71) defeated St Kilda (67) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 4) St Kilda by 6
Fremantle (69) defeated Adelaide (34) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 35) Fremantle by 16
Hawthorn (70) lost to Geelong (106) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 36) Geelong by 14
North Melbourne (81) lost to Carlton (137) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 56) Carlton by 23
Port Adelaide (89) lost to Melbourne (96) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 7) Port Adelaide by 0
Richmond (82) defeated Sydney (77) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Richmond by 5) Sydney by 19
Western Bulldogs (106) defeated West Coast (30) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 76) Western Bulldogs by 48

Round 4

Adelaide (63) lost to Melbourne (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Melbourne by 15) Melbourne by 14
Brisbane Lions (112) defeated North Melbourne (42) at Norwood Oval (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 70) Brisbane Lions by 21
Collingwood (77) defeated Hawthorn (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Collingwood by 5) Collingwood by 21
Fremantle (63) lost to Carlton (73) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Carlton by 10) Fremantle by 4
Gold Coast (89) lost to Greater Western Sydney (117) at Adelaide Hills (SA) [Greater Western Sydney by 28) Greater Western Sydney by 6
Port Adelaide (111) defeated Essendon (42) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 69) Port Adelaide by 25
Richmond (60) lost to St Kilda (67) at Norwood Oval (SA) [St Kilda by 7) St Kilda by 10
West Coast (78) lost to Sydney (104) at Adelaide Hills (SA) [Sydney by 26) Sydney by 49
Western Bulldogs (91) lost to Geelong (95) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 4) Western Bulldogs by 0

Round 5

Carlton (98) lost to Adelaide (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 2) Carlton by 18
Geelong (139) defeated North Melbourne (64) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 75) Geelong by 48
Gold Coast (109) defeated Hawthorn (56) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 53) Gold Coast by 12
Greater Western Sydney (80) defeated St Kilda (79) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 1) Greater Western Sydney by 12
Melbourne (60) lost to Brisbane Lions (82) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 22) Melbourne by 12
Port Adelaide (66) defeated Fremantle (63) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 3) Port Adelaide by 15
West Coast (109) defeated Richmond (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 39) Richmond by 11
Western Bulldogs (67) lost to Essendon (96) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 29) Western Bulldogs by 16

Round 6

Adelaide (75) lost to Essendon (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Essendon by 3) Adelaide by 16
Brisbane Lions (37) lost to Geelong (63) at Gabba (QLD) [Geelong by 26) Brisbane Lions by 4
Carlton (117) defeated Greater Western Sydney (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 19) Carlton by 5
Collingwood (123) defeated Port Adelaide (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 42) Collingwood by 1
North Melbourne (68) lost to Hawthorn (113) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 45) Hawthorn by 13
St Kilda (64) lost to Western Bulldogs (124) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 60) St Kilda by 1
Sydney (110) defeated Gold Coast (57) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 53) Sydney by 10
West Coast (105) defeated Fremantle (68) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 37) Fremantle by 29

Round 7

Essendon (85) drew with Collingwood (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [DRAW by 0) Collingwood by 10
Fremantle (95) defeated Western Bulldogs (71) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 24) Fremantle by 2
Geelong (118) defeated Carlton (105) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 13) Geelong by 10
Gold Coast (112) defeated West Coast (75) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 37) Gold Coast by 31
Greater Western Sydney (113) defeated Brisbane Lions (59) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 54) Greater Western Sydney by 3
Hawthorn (42) lost to Sydney (118) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Sydney by 76) Sydney by 12
North Melbourne (81) lost to Adelaide (138) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Adelaide by 57) Adelaide by 24
Port Adelaide (82) defeated St Kilda (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 10) Port Adelaide by 18
Richmond (42) lost to Melbourne (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 43) Melbourne by 27

Round 8

Adelaide (78) defeated Port Adelaide (48) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 30) Port Adelaide by 10
Brisbane Lions (79) defeated Gold Coast (45) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 34) Brisbane Lions by 10
Carlton (79) lost to Collingwood (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 6) Carlton by 15
Melbourne (74) defeated Geelong (66) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 8) Melbourne by 5
Richmond (49) lost to Fremantle (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Fremantle by 54) Fremantle by 5
St Kilda (103) defeated North Melbourne (65) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 38) St Kilda by 32
Sydney (98) defeated Greater Western Sydney (69) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 29) Greater Western Sydney by 3
West Coast (71) lost to Essendon (77) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Essendon by 6) Essendon by 9
Western Bulldogs (91) lost to Hawthorn (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 7) Western Bulldogs by 19

Round 9

Adelaide (90) drew with Brisbane Lions (90) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [DRAW by 0) Adelaide by 0
Carlton (77) defeated Melbourne (76) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 1) Melbourne by 10
Collingwood (103) defeated West Coast (37) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 66) Collingwood by 30
Essendon (82) defeated Greater Western Sydney (62) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 20) Greater Western Sydney by 8
Fremantle (39) lost to Sydney (87) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Sydney by 48) Fremantle by 3
Geelong (95) lost to Port Adelaide (101) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Port Adelaide by 6) Geelong by 16
Gold Coast (120) defeated North Melbourne (52) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 68) Gold Coast by 31
Hawthorn (58) defeated St Kilda (53) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 5) St Kilda by 11
Richmond (42) lost to Western Bulldogs (133) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 91) Western Bulldogs by 11

Round 10

Brisbane Lions (163) defeated Richmond (44) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 119) Brisbane Lions by 39
Collingwood (78) defeated Adelaide (74) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 4) Collingwood by 21
Essendon (106) defeated North Melbourne (66) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 40) Essendon by 37
Gold Coast (164) defeated Geelong (100) at Marrara Oval (NT) [Gold Coast by 64) Geelong by 5
Greater Western Sydney (43) lost to Western Bulldogs (70) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 27) Western Bulldogs by 5
Port Adelaide (80) defeated Hawthorn (79) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 1) Port Adelaide by 29
St Kilda (55) lost to Fremantle (72) at Docklands (VIC) [Fremantle by 17) St Kilda by 2
Sydney (117) defeated Carlton (65) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 52) Sydney by 23
West Coast (105) defeated Melbourne (70) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 35) Melbourne by 23

Round 11

Adelaide (137) defeated West Coast (38) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 99) Adelaide by 24
Carlton (102) defeated Gold Coast (73) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 29) Carlton by 10
Fremantle (75) drew with Collingwood (75) at Perth Stadium (WA) [DRAW by 0) Fremantle by 16
Geelong (74) lost to Greater Western Sydney (78) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Greater Western Sydney by 4) Geelong by 24
Hawthorn (100) defeated Brisbane Lions (75) at Docklands (VIC) [Hawthorn by 25) Brisbane Lions by 8
Melbourne (100) defeated St Kilda (62) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 38) Melbourne by 15
North Melbourne (48) lost to Port Adelaide (107) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Port Adelaide by 59) Port Adelaide by 49
Richmond (74) lost to Essendon (86) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 12) Essendon by 16
Western Bulldogs (88) lost to Sydney (102) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 14) Western Bulldogs by 7

Round 12

Collingwood (82) lost to Western Bulldogs (100) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 18) Western Bulldogs by 7
Geelong (99) defeated Richmond (69) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 30) Geelong by 44
Gold Coast (91) defeated Essendon (80) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 11) Gold Coast by 12
Hawthorn (107) defeated Adelaide (80) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 27) Adelaide by 2
Melbourne (49) lost to Fremantle (141) at Traeger Park (NT) [Fremantle by 92) Melbourne by 9
Port Adelaide (71) lost to Carlton (107) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Carlton by 36) Port Adelaide by 10
West Coast (68) lost to St Kilda (82) at Perth Stadium (WA) [St Kilda by 14) St Kilda by 11

Round 13

Adelaide (71) lost to Richmond (79) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Richmond by 8) Adelaide by 19
Collingwood (89) defeated Melbourne (51) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 38) Collingwood by 2
Essendon (70) lost to Carlton (96) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 26) Carlton by 9
Hawthorn (85) defeated Greater Western Sydney (79) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 6) Greater Western Sydney by 7
St Kilda (51) defeated Gold Coast (48) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 3) St Kilda by 1
Sydney (112) defeated Geelong (82) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 30) Sydney by 24
West Coast (65) lost to North Melbourne (74) at Perth Stadium (WA) [North Melbourne by 9) West Coast by 23
Western Bulldogs (71) lost to Brisbane Lions (114) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 43) Western Bulldogs by 10

Round 14

Adelaide (67) lost to Sydney (109) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Sydney by 42) Sydney by 7
Brisbane Lions (126) defeated St Kilda (106) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 20) Brisbane Lions by 29
Greater Western Sydney (73) defeated Port Adelaide (51) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 22) Greater Western Sydney by 17
North Melbourne (118) lost to Collingwood (119) at Docklands (VIC) [Collingwood by 1) Collingwood by 49
Richmond (49) lost to Hawthorn (97) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 48) Hawthorn by 16
Western Bulldogs (149) defeated Fremantle (82) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 67) Western Bulldogs by 15

Round 15

Carlton (138) defeated Geelong (75) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 63) Carlton by 8
Essendon (122) defeated West Coast (92) at Docklands (VIC) [Essendon by 30) Essendon by 33
Fremantle (85) defeated Gold Coast (65) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 20) Fremantle by 16
Greater Western Sydney (75) lost to Sydney (102) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Sydney by 27) Sydney by 17
Melbourne (70) defeated North Melbourne (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 3) Melbourne by 37
Port Adelaide (73) lost to Brisbane Lions (152) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Brisbane Lions by 79) Brisbane Lions by 9

Round 16

Adelaide (94) defeated Greater Western Sydney (78) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 16) Greater Western Sydney by 0
Brisbane Lions (86) defeated Melbourne (81) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 5) Brisbane Lions by 20
Geelong (105) defeated Essendon (60) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 45) Essendon by 9
Gold Coast (101) defeated Collingwood (90) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 11) Collingwood by 3
North Melbourne (60) lost to Western Bulldogs (77) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 17) Western Bulldogs by 53
Richmond (70) lost to Carlton (131) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Carlton by 61) Carlton by 37
St Kilda (60) lost to Port Adelaide (62) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 2) St Kilda by 4
Sydney (98) lost to Fremantle (99) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Fremantle by 1) Sydney by 19
West Coast (33) lost to Hawthorn (94) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Hawthorn by 61) Hawthorn by 11

Round 17

Brisbane Lions (97) defeated Adelaide (86) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 11) Brisbane Lions by 25
Collingwood (80) lost to Essendon (92) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 12) Collingwood by 18
Fremantle (105) defeated Richmond (54) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 51) Fremantle by 45
Geelong (110) defeated Hawthorn (59) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 51) Geelong by 14
Greater Western Sydney (116) defeated Carlton (104) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 12) Carlton by 13
Melbourne (112) defeated West Coast (58) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 54) Melbourne by 43
North Melbourne (87) defeated Gold Coast (83) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 4) Gold Coast by 20
Port Adelaide (102) defeated Western Bulldogs (54) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 48) Port Adelaide by 0
St Kilda (84) defeated Sydney (82) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 2) Sydney by 20

Round 18

Adelaide (71) defeated St Kilda (39) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 32) Adelaide by 14
Collingwood (71) lost to Geelong (91) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Geelong by 20) Geelong by 3
Gold Coast (96) defeated Port Adelaide (82) at Carrara (QLD) [Gold Coast by 14) Port Adelaide by 8
Hawthorn (87) defeated Fremantle (74) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 13) Hawthorn by 2
Melbourne (84) defeated Essendon (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Melbourne by 17) Melbourne by 6
Richmond (84) lost to Greater Western Sydney (108) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 24) Greater Western Sydney by 15
Sydney (138) defeated North Melbourne (59) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 79) Sydney by 58
West Coast (93) lost to Brisbane Lions (106) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Brisbane Lions by 13) Brisbane Lions by 37
Western Bulldogs (100) defeated Carlton (86) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 14) Carlton by 0

Round 19

Brisbane Lions (79) defeated Sydney (77) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 2) Brisbane Lions by 2
Carlton (107) defeated North Melbourne (88) at Docklands (VIC) [Carlton by 19) Carlton by 37
Essendon (113) lost to Adelaide (115) at Docklands (VIC) [Adelaide by 2) Essendon by 7
Fremantle (116) defeated Melbourne (66) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 50) Fremantle by 22
Geelong (48) lost to Western Bulldogs (95) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Western Bulldogs by 47) Western Bulldogs by 3
Greater Western Sydney (89) defeated Gold Coast (50) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 39) Greater Western Sydney by 7
Hawthorn (133) defeated Collingwood (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 66) Hawthorn by 2
Port Adelaide (116) defeated Richmond (75) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 41) Port Adelaide by 42
St Kilda (113) defeated West Coast (41) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 72) St Kilda by 29

Round 20

Adelaide (58) lost to Hawthorn (124) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Hawthorn by 66) Adelaide by 5
Carlton (65) lost to Port Adelaide (79) at Docklands (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 14) Carlton by 9
Collingwood (93) defeated Richmond (67) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 26) Collingwood by 21
Fremantle (110) defeated West Coast (75) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Fremantle by 35) Fremantle by 37
Gold Coast (65) lost to Brisbane Lions (93) at Carrara (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 28) Brisbane Lions by 8
Melbourne (83) lost to Greater Western Sydney (85) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Greater Western Sydney by 2) Melbourne by 8
North Melbourne (66) lost to Geelong (106) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [Geelong by 40) Geelong by 28
St Kilda (108) defeated Essendon (55) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 53) St Kilda by 0
Sydney (48) lost to Western Bulldogs (87) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Western Bulldogs by 39) Sydney by 6

Round 21

Collingwood (84) defeated Carlton (81) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 3) Carlton by 6
Essendon (90) defeated Fremantle (89) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Essendon by 1) Fremantle by 13
Geelong (90) defeated Adelaide (85) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 5) Geelong by 18
Greater Western Sydney (84) defeated Hawthorn (82) at Manuka Oval (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 2) Hawthorn by 3
North Melbourne (90) defeated Richmond (77) at Docklands (VIC) [North Melbourne by 13) Richmond by 16
Port Adelaide (148) defeated Sydney (36) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 112) Sydney by 4
St Kilda (39) lost to Brisbane Lions (124) at Docklands (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 85) Brisbane Lions by 10
West Coast (97) defeated Gold Coast (87) at Perth Stadium (WA) [West Coast by 10) Gold Coast by 15
Western Bulldogs (110) defeated Melbourne (59) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 51) Western Bulldogs by 25

Round 22

Adelaide (111) defeated Western Bulldogs (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Adelaide by 39) Western Bulldogs by 12
Brisbane Lions (64) lost to Greater Western Sydney (82) at Gabba (QLD) [Greater Western Sydney by 18) Brisbane Lions by 27
Carlton (38) lost to Hawthorn (112) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 74) Hawthorn by 4
Essendon (86) lost to Gold Coast (87) at Docklands (VIC) [Gold Coast by 1) Essendon by 11
Fremantle (62) lost to Geelong (73) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Geelong by 11) Fremantle by 13
Melbourne (51) lost to Port Adelaide (53) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Port Adelaide by 2) Port Adelaide by 9
North Melbourne (97) lost to West Coast (102) at Bellerive Oval (TAS) [West Coast by 5) West Coast by 1
Richmond (51) lost to St Kilda (99) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 48) St Kilda by 20
Sydney (89) defeated Collingwood (86) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 3) Sydney by 31

Round 23

Collingwood (79) defeated Brisbane Lions (78) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 1) Brisbane Lions by 17
Essendon (59) lost to Sydney (98) at Docklands (VIC) [Sydney by 39) Sydney by 8
Gold Coast (63) lost to Melbourne (117) at Carrara (QLD) [Melbourne by 54) Gold Coast by 8
Greater Western Sydney (101) defeated Fremantle (92) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Greater Western Sydney by 9) Greater Western Sydney by 11
Hawthorn (131) defeated Richmond (68) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 63) Hawthorn by 37
Port Adelaide (80) defeated Adelaide (58) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 22) Port Adelaide by 20
St Kilda (107) defeated Geelong (89) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 18) Geelong by 4
West Coast (34) lost to Carlton (99) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Carlton by 65) Carlton by 7
Western Bulldogs (138) defeated North Melbourne (42) at Docklands (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 96) Western Bulldogs by 60

Round 24

Brisbane Lions (87) defeated Essendon (67) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 20) Brisbane Lions by 27
Carlton (74) lost to St Kilda (76) at Docklands (VIC) [St Kilda by 2) Carlton by 7
Fremantle (67) lost to Port Adelaide (87) at Perth Stadium (WA) [Port Adelaide by 20) Fremantle by 7
Geelong (168) defeated West Coast (75) at Kardinia Park (Gee) [Geelong by 93) Geelong by 63
Hawthorn (170) defeated North Melbourne (46) at York Park (TAS) [Hawthorn by 124) Hawthorn by 44
Melbourne (57) lost to Collingwood (103) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Collingwood by 46) Collingwood by 4
Richmond (66) lost to Gold Coast (94) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Gold Coast by 28) Gold Coast by 4
Sydney (121) defeated Adelaide (90) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 31) Sydney by 21
Western Bulldogs (98) defeated Greater Western Sydney (61) at Eureka Stadium (VIC) [Western Bulldogs by 37) Western Bulldogs by 29

Elimination Final

Brisbane Lions (99) defeated Carlton (71) at Gabba (QLD) [Brisbane Lions by 28) Brisbane Lions by 14
Port Adelaide (54) lost to Geelong (138) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Geelong by 84) Port Adelaide by 24
Sydney (88) defeated Greater Western Sydney (82) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 6) Sydney by 16
Western Bulldogs (62) lost to Hawthorn (99) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Hawthorn by 37) Western Bulldogs by 12

Semi-Final

Greater Western Sydney (100) lost to Brisbane Lions (105) at Sydney Showground (NSW) [Brisbane Lions by 5) Brisbane Lions by 8
Port Adelaide (75) defeated Hawthorn (72) at Adelaide Oval (SA) [Port Adelaide by 3) Hawthorn by 8

Preliminary Final

Geelong (85) lost to Brisbane Lions (95) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 10) Brisbane Lions by 4
Sydney (95) defeated Port Adelaide (59) at S.C.G. (NSW) [Sydney by 36) Sydney by 3

Grand Final

Sydney (60) lost to Brisbane Lions (120) at M.C.G. (VIC) [Brisbane Lions by 60) Brisbane Lions by 6

SLIDING DOORS

On average, how much of a team's final score is due to luck?

SEASON PREDICTOR

Recalculate

2024 AFL GRAND FINAL

Sydney Sydney 74 - 90 Brisbane Lions
M.C.G. (VIC)
Win likelihood: 33.4% - 66.6%RealProbs: 33.389632 - 66.610368RealScores: 74.269015 - 89.595813

Note: Finals tips are an unreliable way to forecast the eventual premier. For a better method, see FLAGPOLE.

Tipping by SQUIGGLE7

SQUIGGLE FLAGPOLE

Flag height indicates a team's strength (venue-neutral), downscaled by their likelihood of missing finals. Use the top buttons to play through the season. For details, see INFO → Flagpole.

		Flagpole Height
1	Brisbane Lions	66.8
2	Western Bulldogs	0.0
3	Hawthorn	0.0
4	Geelong	0.0
5	Port Adelaide	0.0
6	Sydney	0.0
7	Greater Western Sydney	0.0
8	Fremantle	0.0
9	Carlton	0.0
10	Collingwood	0.0
11	Adelaide	0.0
12	Melbourne	0.0
13	St Kilda	0.0
14	Gold Coast	0.0
15	Essendon	0.0
16	Richmond	0.0
17	West Coast	0.0
18	North Melbourne	0.0

REGULAR SEASON FORM

Teams ranked on their strength in normal matches, i.e. their squiggle scores.

		Attack	Defence	Combined
1	Brisbane Lions	67.4	69.6	68.5
2	Western Bulldogs	62.0	68.2	65.1
3	Hawthorn	60.3	69.3	64.8
4	Geelong	62.5	60.6	61.6
5	Port Adelaide	55.0	63.6	59.3
6	Sydney	56.8	59.1	57.9
7	Greater Western Sydney	56.8	58.0	57.4
8	Fremantle	54.3	59.5	56.9
9	Carlton	55.8	57.9	56.8
10	Collingwood	56.1	57.0	56.6
11	Adelaide	55.3	56.1	55.7
12	Melbourne	50.3	61.0	55.7
13	St Kilda	48.0	63.1	55.5
14	Gold Coast	51.4	57.4	54.4
15	Essendon	51.0	54.2	52.6
16	Richmond	46.0	47.5	46.7
17	West Coast	44.4	45.7	45.0
18	North Melbourne	42.9	45.1	44.0

MOST LIKELY GRAND FINALS

Greater Western Sydney def Adelaide	1.7%
Brisbane Lions def Adelaide	1.6%
Adelaide def Brisbane Lions	1.6%
Adelaide def Greater Western Sydney	1.6%
Melbourne def Adelaide	1.6%
Geelong def Adelaide	1.6%
Geelong def Brisbane Lions	1.5%
Greater Western Sydney def Brisbane Lions	1.5%
Geelong def Greater Western Sydney	1.4%
Brisbane Lions def Greater Western Sydney	1.4%
Adelaide def Geelong	1.4%
Melbourne def Greater Western Sydney	1.4%
Brisbane Lions def Geelong	1.3%
Adelaide def Melbourne	1.3%
Melbourne def Brisbane Lions	1.3%
Melbourne def Geelong	1.3%
Greater Western Sydney def Melbourne	1.3%
Greater Western Sydney def Geelong	1.2%
Geelong def Melbourne	1.2%
Adelaide def Fremantle	1.2%

EDIT SQUIGGLE

Oooh past

Oooh future

TODO:

(1) Allow for updating of FLAGPOLE

(2) Allow for updating of TOWER

(3) Allow for updating of TIPS

(4) Allow for modification of future games

(5) Allow for modification of past games

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